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Time Pressure and Decision Making PDF
Time Pressure and Decision Making PDF
by
Department of Psychology
May, 2009
CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIVERSITY
Doctor of Philosophy
candidate for the ______________________degree *.
Heath A. Demaree
(signed)_______________________________________________
(chair of the committee)
Douglas K. Detterman
________________________________________________
Joseph F. Fagan
________________________________________________
Robert L. Slonim
________________________________________________
________________________________________________
________________________________________________
May 7, 2008
(date) _______________________
*We also certify that written approval has been obtained for any
proprietary material contained therein.
1
Table of Contents
List of Tables…………………………………………………………………...… 2
Abstract……………………………………………………………………...……. 3
Introduction………………………………………………………………...……... 4
Method…………………………………………………………………….……... 13
Results……………………………………………………………………..……... 16
Discussion………………………………………………………………………... 28
Appendix………………………………………………………………………… 36
References………………………………………………………………………... 42
2
List of Tables
Table 3 – Analysis of Variance for Good vs. Bad card selection by block…...….. 18
Table 9 – Analysis of Variance for Risky vs. Safe card selection by block…........ 23
Table 14 – Confidence level of knowing which decks were good or bad by group 28
3
Abstract
by
The purpose of the present study was to determine if either time pressure or the
perception of the sufficiency of time affects performance on the Iowa Gambling Task.
One hundred and fifty four participants were randomly assigned to one of two groups.
The first group completed the gambling task without significant time pressure while the
second group completed the task under significant time pressure. Each group was further
divided into two sub-groups. One sub-group was told that the time allotted was sufficient
to complete the task while the second sub-group was informed the time allotted was
insufficient to complete the task. Task performance, defined as explicit knowledge of the
better decks and risk taking behavior, was explored under these time and sufficiency
constraints. The major findings can be summarized as follows: (1) Participants who were
advised that time was sufficient to complete the task outperformed those who were
advised that time was insufficient to complete the task. (2) Participants who were given
ample time to complete the task did not outperform those who were given less time to
complete the task. (3) Sufficiency and time had an impact on explicit knowledge of
which decks were good or bad. (4) Sufficiency and time did not have an effect on the
selection of cards from risky or safe decks. Developers of time management products
would be well advised to include exercises that would build the individuals confidence in
completing tasks under stressed time limits. The goal is not to maximize our time but to
optimize our abilities to make quality decisions within each moment of time.
4
Introduction
In the 2006 World Cup Soccer Championships, a French player Zinedine Zidane,
head-butted his Italian opponent. As a result, he was ejected from the game possibly
costing his team the World Cup Title (Cone, 2006). Moments before the incident, Mr.
Zidane probably did not think through the ramifications of his action. Instead, his
emotions at that moment most likely instigated his decision. This past September, Floyd
Landis lost his case when arbitrators upheld the results of a test that showed that the 2006
Tour de France champion used synthetic testosterone to fuel his victory (Zalewiski, 2007).
Most likely, Mr. Landis had ample time to consider his decision. Unfortunately, even
with mental contemplation, he made a bad decision. In the first example above, emotions
at that moment in time swayed the decision. The second example suggests that even with
Decision Making
defined components. The first component is the cognitive process frequently termed
Physiologically, cognitive processes are largely controlled by the dorsal executive system
which includes the dorsal-lateral prefrontal cortex and the lateral parietal cortex. The
second component is emotional processing, which has been termed “hot” processing
(Goel, & Dolan, 2003). Research has shown that the ventral affective system –
prefrontal cortex – show heightened activation when emotions are involved in decision-
maker as a purely rational “cold” cognitive machine (Sanfey, Rilling, Aronson, Nystrom,
& Cohen, 2003). However, psychologists have found that emotional, or “hot,”
processing plays a role in decision making (Bechara, & Damasio, 2005; Ernst, et al.,
2002; Phelps, 2006). The interaction of the rational and emotional processes in decision
making can be effectively illustrated by a simple task known as the Ultimatum Game.
Designed by W. Guth et al. (1982), two players are randomly assigned to be a proposer or
responder. The proposer is given a sum of money, typically $10, and is instructed to
offer some of the money to the responder. Once the responder has received an offer from
the proposer, s/he can either accept or reject the offer. If accepted, the money is divided
accordingly. However, if the responder rejects the offer, then both players receive
nothing. The standard economic or rational solution would be for the proposer to offer a
small amount such as $1.00, and for the responder to accept the amount because
something is better than nothing. However, behavioral research has found that the modal
division of money is typically around 50% and offers below 20% are usually rejected
reports, low offers are rejected because of anger felt from a perceived unfair offer
(Pillutla, & Murnighan, 1996). To study this further, Xiao & Houser (2005) gave the
rejecting the offer. Results indicated that the responders tended to accept lower offers
6
when they could write a note of disapproval to the proposer. It seemed that when the
responder could channel their negative emotions in a letter rather than a rejection, they
behaved more like the economic models would have predicted (Xiao & Houser 2005).
These results provide evidence that emotions play a role in the decision making process.
Later, the Somatic Markers Hypothesis, which more fully discusses how emotions guide
Time Pressure
& Hockey, 1993). A project manager’s objective is to complete a project within budget,
on time, and to the satisfaction of the customer (Kerzner, 1995). In the field of
economics, time pressure can be felt when buying and selling stocks. Physicians working
with managed care organizations often have a time limit for examining a patient. Time
pressure can be felt in military situations where immediate decisions can have lasting
effects. In education, college bound participants deal with time pressure while taking
decisions (Isenberg, 1984). Researchers have provided support for this belief by
demonstrating that time pressure reduces the quality of decision-making (Payne, Bettman
& Johnson, 1993, 1995), and that confidence in the quality of a decision declines under
time pressure (Bockenholt, & Kroeger, 1993). Complaints of insufficient time are the
most frequently reported everyday minor stressor reported by all except the elderly
Modern decision-making and time pressure studies use games with simple
behavioral solutions and ecologic validity (Haselhuhn, & Muellers, 2005). Researchers
incorporate time constraints to study the tradeoff of effort and accuracy in decision
making. Time constraints are used in an attempt to alter effort in a decision-making task.
Accuracy in the task is then analyzed for changes due to the altered level of effort. A
study performed by Svenson and Edland (1987), for example, asked participants to
choose between apartments under time pressure or no time pressure. The apartments
were characterized by three attributes – travel time to the university, size, and quality,
such as a step down living room. The no time pressure group preferred larger apartments
farther from school. The time pressured group preferred smaller apartments closer to
school. Since distance to school was considered the strongest negative aspect, the results
suggested that greater weight was given to negative information under time pressure
(Svenson, & Edland, 1987). In another study, Rubinstein (2004) investigated the
response time of participants in game situations on the Internet. Results showed actions
that were instinctive and derived from emotional responses required less response time
than actions requiring the use of thought (Rubinstein, 2004). The research described
above provides evidence that time pressure has an impact on various decisions.
Since most decisions have a degree of uncertainty, it’s important to consider the
effects of time pressure on risk taking. It has been demonstrated that time pressure
induces less extreme judgments (Kaplan, Wanshula, & Zanna, 1993), and reduces the
propensity to take risks (Ben-Zur & Breznitz, 1981). In one study, participants made
8
decisions between gambles under three different levels of time pressure. Analysis of the
data found that participants made less risky choices under increased time pressure (Ben-
Zur & Breznitz, 1981). Further research has shown that time pressure actually causes
(1993) found that individuals under time pressure exhibited increased risk taking when
the expected value of a decision was positive. When the expected value was negative
While the research described above highlights time pressure as being the force
that acts upon the decision maker, Maule and Hockey (1993) have suggested an
alternative hypothesis. The variable state activation theory (VSAT) suggests individuals
actively decide if the time available is sufficient to complete the task. For example, a
decision under time pressure will not be stressful if the individual believes s/he has the
resources to make a decision effectively within the allotted time. However, if the
individual believes the time allotted is insufficient, then stress will be felt resulting in an
impact to the decision making process (Maule, & Hockey, 1993). To test this theory,
Svenson & Benson (1993) gave two groups the same amount of time to complete a task.
One group was told that the time allotted was sufficient to complete the task while the
second group was told the time was insufficient to complete the task. Results showed
that only the group that was told time was insufficient showed decreased task completion
(Svenson, & Benson, 1993). Another study used two different time constraints. One
group was given half the time typically needed to solve a problem, while the other group
was given twice the time needed. Each group was further divided into either being told
the time was sufficient or insufficient to solve the problem. Results showed that the
9
solving the problem than did the independent variable of time (Maule, & Maillet-
Hausswirth, 1995).
There are several conclusions that can be made from the research described above.
First, decision-making is an important aspect of our daily lives. Second, individuals use
rational “cold” processing and emotional “hot” processing during many decisions. Third,
time pressure has an impact on the degree of risk taking in certain decisions. Finally,
individuals differ in their perception to the amount of time needed to complete a task.
The Iowa Gambling Task is a well established assessment tool and its use by
researchers has helped reveal the value emotions play in decision making (Evans, Kemish,
& Turnbull, 2004). The task simulates real-world decisions in terms of uncertainty,
reward, and punishment (Bechara, Damasio, Damasio, & Lee, 1999). Participants choose
from among fours decks of cards. Two decks – A and B – have high immediate gains but
larger future losses, i.e., negative utility (bad decks). The two remaining decks – C and D
– yield lower immediate gains but smaller future losses, i.e., positive utility (good decks).
In addition, decks B and D have higher variance between wins and losses, making them
riskier decks. The other two decks A and C have smaller variance between wins and
losses making them safer decks. The goal of the task is to maximize profit on a loan of
play money.
one study using the Iowa Gambling Task, Bechara et al. (1999) tested individuals with
10
damage to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, lesions to the amygdala, and healthy
controls. The groups performed the gambling task while their skin conductance
responses were measured. The healthy individuals generated skin conductance responses
at two different points throughout the task. First, they immediately began generating skin
conductance responses after the selection of each card. This was due to the reward or
punishment depending on the card being good or bad. Second, as the healthy individuals
played the game, they began generating skin conductance responses prior to the selection
of a card. These anticipatory skin conductance responses were more pronounced when
selecting cards from the bad decks than the good decks. Further, based on self-report, the
healthy individuals did not explicitly realize which decks were good until about trial 50.
At around Trial 50, healthy individuals began selecting the good cards quite regularly
throughout the remainder of the game. Conversely, the ventromedial prefrontal cortex
and the amygdala patients failed to generate skin conductance responses before picking a
card and continued to select from the bad decks throughout the 100 card selections
(Bechara et al., 1999). This observation led to the somatic marker hypothesis (Bechara
et al., 1998). The hypothesis attributes the inability to realize the better decks to a defect
action (Bechara, Damasio, 2005). In a healthy individual, body states evoked by the
These signals then guide the individual’s behavior in a manner advantageous in the long
Time constraints have been used in conjunction with the Iowa Gambling Task.
Cella and colleagues (2007) for example, had participants complete the Iowa Gambling
11
Task under one of three different conditions. A control group completed the task under
no time constraint. Another group was given two seconds to select a card while the third
group was given four seconds to select a card. Results showed a significant drop in
performance with the reduction in time (Cella, Dymond, Cooper, & Turnbull, 2007).
This study provides evidence of a link between time pressure and emotional based
To summarize, time pressure and decision making are part of daily life. The
fields of economics and psychology have explored the aspects of time pressure and
decision making. The variable state activation theory suggests the perception of time
pressure affects decision making. Finally, the somatic marker hypothesis suggests
The present study investigated the effects of time pressure or the perception of the
decision making. As described earlier, most studies in this area focus on the effect time
pressure has on the rational strategies in decision making and have not parsed the
emotional and cognitive components (Svenson, & Edland, 1987; Payne, Bettman &
Johnson, 1993; Rubinstein, 2004; Cella, Dymond, Cooper, & Turnbull, 2007). As with
previous research (Cella et al., 2007), the present study used the Iowa Gambling Task
with time constraints. However, the present study added instruction as to the time
allotted being sufficient or insufficient to complete the task. In addition, the study
included a self report questionnaire designed to parse the emotional and cognitive
components of decision making. Finally, risk taking behavior under time pressure was
investigated. These components provided the foundation for the following questions: 1)
12
does a time limit have an impact on emotional and/or cognitive processing in decision
making, 2) does the perception of the sufficiency of time have an impact on emotional
and/or cognitive processing in decision making, 3) does a time limit or the perception of
The value of the present study is significant. Decision making strategies can be
modified to include steps that consider the individuals perception of time and emotional
state. Being aware of the effects time pressure has on risk taking can allow individuals to
avoid unwarranted risk taking. Finally, future research can explore the emotional and
making.
The purpose of the present study was to determine if either time pressure or the
two groups. The first group completed a decision making task without significant time
pressure. The second group completed the task under significant time pressure. Each
group was further divided into two sub-groups. One sub-group was told that the time
allotted was sufficient to complete the task while the second sub-group was informed the
time allotted was insufficient to complete the task. Task performance was compared
Methods
Subjects
of one hundred and sixty three participants participated in the present study. A total of
nine participants were removed from the study due to excessive response time, as defined
as three standard deviations above the mean. As a result, the total number of participants
included in this analysis was one hundred and fifty four. (N=154). The remaining
participants were within the two second required response time, as outlined in the game
The present study included three standard personal computers running Windows
98. Additional software included the Iowa Gambling Task application. Each computer
was placed in a separate room with a door to minimize external noise. Standard 15 inch
CRT monitors were used and placed about 15 inches from the participant.
In the gambling task, participants are presented four decks of cards on a computer
screen. The decks are labeled A, B, C, and D. Using the mouse, the participant can click
on a card from any of the four decks. Upon selection, a message is displayed indicating
the amount of play money won (reward). On some cards, the win message is followed by
a message indicating the amount of play money lost (punishment). At the top of the
screen is a green bar that changes according to the amount of money won or lost. Below
14
the green bar is a red bar that shows the amount of money initially borrowed ($2,000.00).
The difference between the two bars is the total amount of play money won or lost.
The goal of the task is to maximize profit on a loan of play money. The
participant selects one card at a time from any deck they choose. They are free to switch
from any deck to another at any time, and as often as they desire. The participant’s
decision to select from one deck versus another is influenced by various schedules of
immediate reward (wins) and future punishment (losses). The schedules are set so that
two decks of cards (A and B) yield high immediate reward but larger future losses, i.e.
negative utility (bad decks). The other two decks (C and D) yield lower immediate gain
but smaller future losses, i.e. positive utility (good decks). In addition, decks B and D
have higher variance between wins and losses, making them riskier decks. The other two
decks A and C have smaller variance between wins and losses making them safer decks.
The time interval between selections of cards is divided into two periods (Bechara
& Damasio, 2005). After the participant selects a card, there is a period of approximately
3000msec where the win money and in some instances lose money is displayed on the
screen. Following the presentation of the reward and punishment is an inter-trial interval
period when a “Please wait” is displayed on the screen. Following the inter-trial interval
period, the phrase “pick a card” is displayed on the screen to notify the individual that
they can now select their next card. During this period the participant makes their next
card selection. On average, the task of selecting 100 cards takes 18-20 minutes to
The task allows certain variables to be manipulated. For the present study, the
inter-trial interval between two consecutive card selections was manipulated depending
15
on the group. For the relaxed time groups, the inter-trial interval was set to 5000msec.
The stressed time group’s inter-trial interval was set to 1000msec. When “pick a card”
was displayed on the screen, the participant was instructed to select a card within
2000msec. Based on these time settings, the relaxed time groups would finish the game
within 19 minutes while the stressed time groups would require approximately 12
minutes to complete the game. Each deck contained 60 cards with a total of 100 card
Procedure
Participants were randomly assigned to one of two groups. The first group
completed the Iowa Gambling Task without significant time pressure. The second group
completed the task under significant time pressure. Each group was further randomly
divided into two sub-groups. One sub-group was told that the time allotted was sufficient
to complete the task while the second sub-group was informed the time allotted was
Once the participant was seated in the experimental room, they were given
consent forms to review and sign. Upon consent, the experimenter distributed
instructions to the participant. The gambling task instructions were the same for all
groups. These standard instructions have been used in other gambling task experiments
16
(Bechara, Tranel, Damasio, 2000; Bechara, Damasio, 2005). Appendix A includes the
also provided. The sufficient time groups were advised that the timing within the game
was sufficient to consider game activities and determine which decks were better than the
others. The insufficient time groups were advised that the timing within the game was
insufficient to consider game activities and determine which decks were better than the
others. All groups were instructed to select a card within 2000msec of seeing the “pick a
card” on the display. Participant time constraint instructions are included in Appendix B
Once the participant indicated s/he understood the instructions, the experimenter
started the gambling task game. After the participant completed the gambling task,
results were saved. The gambling task results included the order of every card selected,
the total amount of money won or lost and total time. The final requirement of the
participant was to complete the post-task questionnaire. This ended the participant’s
Results
Data Analysis
Data for these analyses were gathered from two sources, the gambling task
application and a post-task questionnaire. For the gambling task, there were two distinct
types of data. The first set of data was the participant’s selection of good decks vs. bad
decks. The selections from bad decks A and B were subtracted from the number of times
the participant selected from the good decks C and D. For example, if a participant
selected more from the bad decks, s/he would have a negative score. The second set of
17
data was the selections from risky decks vs. safe decks. The selections from risky decks
B and D were subtracted from the number of times the participant selected from the safe
decks A and C. Therefore, higher positive scores would be the result of selecting more
from the safer decks. The 100 card selections were separated into five blocks of twenty
cards each. This allowed for the tracking of trends in performance as the participants
The second set of data was the participant’s responses to a post-task questionnaire.
Of primary interest was the participant’s explicit knowledge of which decks were good
and bad, and risky and safe. The questionnaire also included questions relating to the
participant’s feelings of being rushed and having enough time to complete the task. How
much the participant was able to think before selecting a card, and how much the
participant listened to their gut were additional questions asked. A copy of the post-task
Before addressing each of the three questions separately, a 2(Time: 1sec, 5sec) x
ANOVA was conducted. The purpose of this analysis was to explore any effects the
independent variables of time and sufficiency had on the dependent variable of good and
bad card selections by block. The analysis indicated that the within-subjects factor of
block was significant F(4,600) = 66.116, p < .01. Table 1 provides detailed good vs. bad
card selection block performance. As can be seen, the participants selected more from
the good decks as they played the game. Post-hoc analysis using the least significant
154 -4.49 6.85 2.71 7.89 4.84 9.12 6.77 9.71 7.92 10.39 3.55 5.89
18
difference (LSD) test revealed a significant difference (p < .005) in performance between
each individual block, except the difference in performance from block four to block five
(p = .108) which failed to reach significance. The main effect for the between-subjects
factor of sufficiency was also significant F(1,150) = 5.184, p <.05. The sufficient group
selected more cards from the good decks than the insufficient group. Table 2 provides
detailed block performance data by sufficiency level. The main effect for the
Table 2. Good vs. Bad block performance grouped by sufficiency
Insufficient 79 -4.66 7.5 1.32 7.43 4.58 9.15 5.42 9.59 5.85 10.2 2.90 5.52
Sufficient 75 -4.32 6.13 4.19 8.14 5.12 9.14 8.19 9.69 10.11 10.2 4.65 6.10
Total 154 -4.49 6.85 2.71 7.89 4.84 9.12 6.77 9.71 7.92 10.39 3.55 5.89
interaction of block by time or sufficiency. Time or sufficiency did not influence the
selection of good and bad deck performance by block. Finally, there was no time by
Within subjects
Block 4 66.116** 0.000
Block x Time 4 0.624** 0.645
Block x Sufficiency 4 1.824** 0.123
Block x Time x Sufficiency 4 1.180** 0.318
Error 600 (54.98)
Note. Values enclosed in parentheses represent mean square errors.
* p < .05. ** p < .01.
19
making?
While the initial analysis did not show any effects of time on good and bad card
selection performance, a single analysis was conducted on time and performance in the
fifth block. As with many studies of the Iowa Gambling Task, researchers focus on
performance in the fifth block alone (Bechara, et al., 2000; Evans, et al., 2004). This
block tends to show if the participant successfully learned the task or not. Time did not
effect performance in the fifth block F(1,153)=1.390, p = .240. This suggests that time
did not have an effect on the participants ability to learn the task.
Time did have an impact on the participants feeling rushed and having enough
time to complete the task. As presented in Table 4, participants who were given one
second felt more rushed than participants who were given five seconds to complete the
task, t(152) = -2.979, p < .005 level. There was also a significant difference in the two
groups feelings about having enough time. Participants who were given one second felt
they did not have enough time as compared to the participants who were given five
seconds to complete the task at a t(152) = -2.637, p < .05 (see Table 4). A significant
difference was also found between time and how much the participant was able to think
before selecting a card, t(152) = -2.644, p < .05 (see Table 4). Specifically, participants
who were able to think more before selecting a card, performed better on the Iowa
Gambling Task. Finally, there was a marginally significant difference between time and
how much the participants listened to their gut, t(152) = 1.782, p = .077 (see Table 4).
The more participants listened to their gut, the worse they performed on the Iowa
Gambling Task.
20
Did you Have enough Able to think before How much did you
feel rushed? time? selecting a card? listen to your gut?
Time N Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD
a b c d
1 second 78 6.92 2.08 6.59 2.06 7.33 1.79 6.18 1.85
a b c d
5 seconds 76 7.86 1.78 7.42 1.84 8.05 1.56 5.59 2.23
questionnaire that asked the participants which decks were good and bad. There was a
significant difference between groups in recognizing deck A as a bad deck. The group
given one second did not explicitly realize deck A was bad as well as the group given
five seconds, χ2(1, N = 154) = 6.001, p=.014. Interestingly, the group given one second
did not differ in selecting deck A during the task (M = 13.50, SD = 5.249) from the group
and bad card selection in the fifth block. Sufficiency did have a significant effect on
performance in block five F (1,153) = 6.703, p < .05. As presented in Table 2, the group
advised that time was insufficient selected fewer cards from the good decks than the
group felt more rushed than the sufficient group. Sufficiency did not affect the
participants feeling about having enough time to complete the task t(152) = -.1.052, p
= .295. A significant difference was found between sufficiency and how much the
participant was able to think before selecting a card, t(152) = -2.023, p < .05. The
insufficient group did not feel they were able to think before selecting a card as well as
the sufficient group (see Table 6). Finally, the difference between sufficiency and how
much the participants listened to their gut was not significant, t(152) = .525, p = .600.
Did you Have enough Able to think before How much did you
feel rushed? time? selecting a card? listen to your gut?
Sufficiency N Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD
a b c d
Insufficient 79 7.10 2.08 6.84 2.02 7.42 1.84 5.97 2.11
a b c d
Sufficient 75 7.68 1.86 7.17 1.96 7.97 1.55 5.80 2.01
task questionnaire that asked the participants which decks were good and bad. There was
22
a marginally significant effect in the explicit recognition of deck A as bad χ2(1, N = 154)
= 3.572, p=.059. As can be seen in Table 7, the insufficient group did not explicitly
realize that deck A was bad as well as the sufficient group. In addition the group advised
that time was insufficient to complete the task selected significantly more from deck A
(M = 14.27, SD = 6.44) than the group instructed that time was sufficient to complete the
difference in the explicit knowledge of deck D being good. As presented in Table 7, the
insufficient group surprisingly better recognized deck D as good than the sufficient group
χ2(1, N = 154) = 6.363, p=.012. However, the insufficient group did not select from deck
D (M = 31.35, SD = 12.40) any more than the sufficient group (M = 33.97, SD = 11.21),
t(152) = -1.372, p = .172. Finally, as can be seen in Table 7, there was no significant
Deck A Deck B
2
Group Good Bad Total X p Good Bad Total X2 p
Insufficient 13 66 79 26 53 79
3.572 0.059 0.230 0.632
Sufficient 5 70 75 22 53 75
Deck C Deck D
Insufficient 58 21 79 74 5 79
0.001 0.991 6.363 0.012
Sufficient 55 20 75 60 15 75
3) Does a time limit and/or the perception thereof have an impact on risk taking?
21-40, 41-60, 61-80, 81-100) ANOVA was conducted. The purpose of this analysis was
to explore any effects the independent variables of time and sufficiency had on the
23
dependent variable of risky and safe card selections by block. The analysis indicated that
the within-subjects factor of block was significant F(4,600) = 4.934, p < .001. Table 8
provides detailed risky vs. safe card selection block performance. As can be seen, the
participants improved their performance as they played the game. Post-hoc analysis
using the least significant difference (LSD) test revealed blocks one, two, & three had
154 -4.61 5.12 -4.62 6.47 -4.68 7.74 -2.57 8.64 -2.24 9.67 -3.74 4.87
more risky card selections than blocks four and five at a p < .05 level. The main effect
for the between-subjects factor of sufficiency or time were not significant. Additionally,
there was no interaction of block by time or sufficiency. Time or sufficiency did not
influence the selection of risky or safe deck performance by block. Finally, there was no
Variance.
Within subjects
Block 4 4.934** 0.001
Block x Time 4 0.438** 0.781
Block x Sufficiency 4 0.436** 0.783
Block x Time x Sufficiency 4 0.221** 0.927
Error 600 (45.076)
Note. Values enclosed in parentheses represent mean square errors.
** p < .01.
24
Exploratory analyses. Two additional analyses were conducted to explore (1) potential
relationships with task results and post-task questionnaire responses and (2) any group
differences between the degrees of confidence in stating which decks were good and bad.
responses were associated with Iowa Gambling Task performance within the sufficiency
group. With respect to the insufficient group, regression analysis revealed a number of
interesting findings. As presented in Table 10, the feeling of being rushed was associated
with Iowa Gambling Task performance and explained a significant proportion of the
variance in Iowa Gambling Task performance (R2 = .054, β = .231, p < .05). Specifically,
the participants who felt more rushed did not perform as well as those who felt less
rushed. Next, how much the participants listened to their gut was associated with Iowa
Iowa Gambling Task performance (R2 = .060, β = -.246, p < .05). The more the
participants listened to their gut, the worse they performed. How much they were able to
think their decision through was also associated with Iowa Gambling Task performance
performance (R2 = .057, β = .240, p < .05). Specifically, the more the participant were
able to think their decision through, the better they performed on the Iowa Gambling
Task.
With respect to the sufficiency group, how much the participants listened to their
gut was associated with Iowa Gambling Task performance and explained a significant
proportion of the variance (R2 = .082, β = -.286, p < .05. The more the participants
listened to their gut, the worse they performed. The feeling of having enough time was
25
also associated with Iowa Gambling Task performance and explained a significant
proportion of the variance (R2 = .058, β = .240, p < .05). Specifically, the more
participants felt they had enough time, the better they performed on the Iowa Gambling
Task. Ability to think their decisions through was associated with Iowa Gambling Task
performance while explaining a significant proportion of the variance (R2 = .127, β = .357,
p < .005). Specifically, the more the participant were able to think their decision through,
Table 10. Regression analyses, Post-task questionniare responses predicting overall performance by sufficiency
Insufficient Sufficient
Post-task question R2 β p R2 β p
Did you feel rushed? 0.054 0.231 0.040 0.001 0.037 0.754
How much did you listen to your gut? 0.060 -0.246 0.029 0.082 -0.286 0.013
Did you feel you had enough time? 0.033 0.181 0.111 0.058 0.24 0.038
Ability to think your decision through? 0.057 0.240 0.033 0.127 0.357 0.002
responses predicted gambling task performance within the time groups. With respect to
the one second group, how much the participants were able to think their decision
through was associated with Iowa Gambling Task performance and explained a
significant proportion of the variance in the Iowa Gambling Task. (R2 = .096, β = .310, p
< .05). Specifically, the more the participant were able to think their decision through, the
In the five second group, how much the participants listened to their gut was
associated with Iowa Gambling Task performance and explained a significant proportion
of the variance in Iowa Gambling Task performance (R2 = .095, β = -.309, p < .05). The
26
more the participants used their gut, the worse they performed on the Iowa Gambling
Task. The feeling of having enough time, was also associated with Iowa Gambling Task
(R2 = .083, β = .289, p < .05). The more time the participants felt they had, the better
they performed. Ability to think their decisions through was associated with and
= .347, p < .005). Specifically, the more the participants were able to think their decision
through, the better they performed on Iowa Gambling Task. See Table 11 for details of
Table 11. Regression analyses, Post-task questionniare responses predicting overall performance by time.
1 Second 5 Seconds
Post-task question R2 β p R2 β p
Did you feel rushed? 0.034 0.184 0.107 0.018 0.133 0.252
How much did you listen to your gut? 0.049 -0.221 0.520 0.095 -0.309 0.007
Did you feel you had enough time? 0.027 0.164 0.152 0.083 0.289 0.011
Ability to think your decision through? 0.096 0.310 0.006 0.121 0.347 0.002
responses were associated with card selection from risky or safe decks. As presented in
Table 12, within the insufficient group, the feeling of being rushed was associated with
card selection from risky and safe decks and explained a significant proportion of the
variance in selection of risky and safe cards (R2 = .152, β = .390, p < .005). Specifically,
the more the participants felt rushed, the more they selected from risky decks. Feeling of
having enough time was also associated with risky and safe card selections and explained
27
a significant proportion of the variance (R2 = .053, β = .229, p < .05). The feeling of not
having enough time also caused participants to select more from the risky decks.
Table 12. Regression analyses, Post-task questionnaire responses predicting risk taking total by sufficiency
Insufficient Sufficient
Post-task question R2 β p R2 β p
Did you feel rushed? 0.152 0.390 0.000 0.005 -0.068 0.561
How much did you listen to your gut? 0.022 -0.148 0.192 0.006 -0.081 0.492
Did you feel you had enough time? 0.053 0.229 0.042 0.002 -0.044 0.705
Ability to think your decision through? 0.040 0.199 0.079 0.064 0.253 0.029
With respect to the one second group, regression analysis revealed the feeling of
being rushed was associated with risky and safe card selections and explained a
significant proportion of the variance (R2 = .073, β = .269, p < .05). Specifically, the
more the participants felt rushed, the more they selected from risky decks. Feeling of
being able to think decisions through was also associated with risky and safe card
selections and explained a significant proportion of the variance (R2 = .051, β = .225, p
< .05) Being able to think decisions through caused participants to select more from the
safe decks. Table 13 provides detail to the relationship of post-task questions to risky and
Table 13. Regression analyses, Post-task questionnaire responses predicting risk taking total by time
1 Second 5 Seconds
Post-task question R2 β p R2 β p
Did you feel rushed? 0.073 0.269 0.017 0.008 0.089 0.445
How much did you listen to your gut? 0.000 0.013 0.908 0.048 -0.220 0.056
Did you feel you had enough time? 0.066 0.004 0.564 0.018 0.136 0.243
Ability to think your decision through? 0.051 0.225 0.048 0.061 0.247 0.032
Note: Ratings based on 9 point scale
Feeling rushed, 1=very rushed, 9=not rushed at all. Listening to gut, 1=not at all, 9=entirely gut decision
Enough time, 1=not at all, 9=more than enough time. Think decision through. 1=unable to think at all,
9=plenty of time to think
28
An independent samples t-test was conducted to see if there were any group
differences between the degrees of confidence in stating which decks were good and bad.
Specifically, I wanted to see if time or sufficiency had any impact on the participant’s
confidence in their post-task questionnaire responses to decks being good or bad. Results
indicated that there was no difference (p = .141) in the degree of confidence in which
decks were good and bad. Table 14 provides mean confidence results by group.
Table 14. Confidence level of knowing which decks were good or bad by group
Based on Time
A Confidence B Confidence
Time N Mean SD t p Mean SD t p
C Confidence D Confidence
Time N Mean SD t p Mean SD t p
Based on Sufficiency
A Confidence B Confidence
Sufficiency N Mean SD t p Mean SD t p
C Confidence D Confidence
Sufficiency N Mean SD t p Mean SD t p
Note : df = 152
Discussion
The major findings can be summarized as follows: (1) Participants who were
advised that time was sufficient to complete the task outperformed those who were
29
advised that time was insufficient to complete the task. (2) Participants who were given
ample time to complete the task did not outperform those who were given less time to
complete the task. (3) Sufficiency and time had an impact on explicit knowledge of
which decks were good or bad. (4) Sufficiency and time did not have an effect on the
(1) The finding that participants who were advised time was insufficient
performed worse than the participants who were advised time was sufficient to complete
the task supports the variable activation theory (VSAT). The VSAT states that ability is
complete a task. In the present study, difference in performance on the gambling task
was found in blocks two, four, and five. This difference in performance over several
blocks is important because past research (Maule, & Maillet-Hausswirth, 1995; Maule, &
Hockey, 1993) has focused on a single decision point where the quality of that decision is
impacted by the individual’s perception of time. The present study shows that the
perception of time impacts performance over a period of time. Many jobs in Corporate
America require individuals to work on a specific project for a period of time. Results
from the present study suggest that an individual’s performance throughout a task can be
responses predicted gambling task performance within the sufficiency groups. With
findings. First, participants who felt more rushed did not perform as well as those who
felt less rushed. The feeling of rushed did not predict performance in the one second, five
30
second, or sufficient groups. These results suggest that it is not the actual time limit that
causes a feeling of being rushed, but the perception of time being insufficient that causes
a feeling of being rushed. Next, the more participants stated they used their gut to make
decisions, the worse they performed. Additionally, the more the participants were able to
think through their decisions, the better they performed. While gut decisions can be of
value in various tasks, the present study suggests that performance in the Iowa Gambling
(2) The null results of time on Iowa Gambling Task performance were a surprise.
Research by Cella et al. (2007) found that a time constraint impacted Iowa Gambling
Task performance. The difference in results could be due to the way time constraints
were set within the task. The time constraint in the present study was adjusted at the
inter-trial interval. In the stressed time limit group, the inter-trial interval was set to one
second while the relaxed time group’s inter-trial interval was set to five seconds.
Research has found that it is during this interval period that physiological changes such as
skin conductance response from winning and losing are most pronounced (Bechara et al.,
1999). Participants were then asked, not forced, to select a card within two seconds of
seeing “pick a card” on the screen. Cella and his team fixed the inter-trial interval at two
seconds and then adjusted the time interval during the period where the individuals had to
pick a card. Cella separated the participants into one of three groups, a one second group,
four second group, and a no time limit (control) group. Once “pick a card” was displayed
on the computer screen, individuals in the two second group were forced to select a card
in two seconds while the four second group was forced to select a card in four seconds.
The control group did not have any forced time limit. In the time limited groups, if the
31
individual did not select a card in the time allotted, the screen would alert them of being
too slow and then move to the next card selection. The number of time-outs where
individuals did not select a card in time ranged from six to twelve per block in the two
second group. The four second group had a range from one to thee time-outs per block.
Cella found a significant difference in Iowa Gambling Task performance between the two
second group and control group. Upon review of figures in Cella’s paper, the average
score in block five for the two second and four second groups was approximately 2. The
no forced time limit group had an average score in block five of approximately 7.5. In
the present study, the average score in block five for the one second and five second
groups were 6.9 and 8.9 respectively. It appears the present study participants performed
more like the control group in Cella’s study. It may be that the time outs themselves
caused individuals to feel that time was insufficient to complete the task, resulting in
decreased performance. If this was the case, then the difference in performance between
the forced time groups and the non-forced time group would not be due to time but the
individuals feeling or belief that time was insufficient to complete the task. The present
To further analyze results within the time groups, regression analyses were
conducted to see if any of the post-task questionnaire responses predicted gambling task
performance within the time groups. With respect to the one second group, participants
who were able to think their decision through outperformed those who were unable to
think their decision through. When time is limited, performance appears to be impacted
processing may play a role in successful task completion. Research has shown that
32
possible that individuals with higher IQ’s may be more successful at completing the Iowa
(3) The finding that sufficiency impacted explicit knowledge of which decks were
good or bad was surprising. The insufficient group surprisingly better recognized deck D
as a good deck when compared to the sufficient group. However, the insufficient group
did not select from deck D any more than the sufficient group. Analysis of means also
showed that the two groups did not differ in the degree of confidence in the deck being
good. The strategy of probability matching could shed light on this result. Probability
matching suggests that individuals select a choice based on their belief in the probability
maximization strategy which is always selecting the choice that is occurring most often
(West, & Stanovich, 2003). For example, suppose there is a study where a participant is
asked to predict whether a red or blue light will flash over a series of trials. The red light
is programmed to flash 70% of the time while the blue light is programmed to flash 30%
of the time. Within a few trials, the participant realizes the red light flashes more often
than the blue light. A maximization strategy is followed when the participant always
selects the red light over the blue giving them in the example above a hit rate of 70%. A
probability matching strategy would be followed when the participant selects the red light
70% of the time and the blue light 30% of the time (.7 * .7 + .3 * .3) resulting in a hit rate
As predicted, the one second group did not explicitly realize deck A was a bad
deck as well as the five second group. However, it was a surprise that the one second
group did not select any more from deck A as the five second group. This appears to be
another example of probability matching since both groups did not differ in their degree
responses predicted card selection from risky or safe decks. With respect to the
insufficient group, regression analyses revealed two interesting findings. First, the more
participants felt rushed, the more they selected from risky decks. Second, the feeling of
not having enough time caused participants to select more from the risky decks. With
respect to the one second group, regression analyses revealed that the more participants
felt rushed, the more they selected from risky decks. It appears that under a perceived or
real time constraint, individuals tend to become more prone to taking risks or do not have
Study strengths. As mentioned earlier, most time-based studies used a single task
and then measured the effects of time on that single decision point. The present study
used a task that required 100 decisions with each decision used to make subsequent
decisions. By doing this, performance was measured over a period of time rather than a
single moment. In addition, the present study also incorporated a sufficiency variable
that allowed for the analysis of the individuals perception of time. As with time, the
effects of sufficiency were also measured over a period of time. The measuring of time
34
and sufficiency in a multiple decision task is significant because it better resembles real-
life experience where outcomes are based on multiple decisions rather than a single
decision.
limited age range. The Iowa Gambling Task is a play money game and therefore there
was no real incentive for participants to do their best in the game. While research has
found that real money does not impact Iowa Gambling Task performance (Bowman, &
Turnbull, 2003), some type of incentive could impact behavior under perceived or real
time limitations. The Iowa Gambling Task itself does not provide a broad scope to the
impact of perceived or real time limits in real life decision making. Since post-task
questionnaire was distributed after the participants completed the game, their responses
may have been biased based on the knowledge of how well they performed on the task.
Finally, risk taking results could have been affected by participants being bored or not
Future directions. The Iowa Gambling Task has provided evidence to the impact
of perceived and real time limits on decision making. However the study is limited to the
task itself. Future research could use other decision making tasks such as Hold’em poker
to study the effects of perceived and real time limits on decision making. The use of
different tasks could provide further evidence that perceived or real time limits have an
impact on a broader scope of decision making beyond the Iowa Gambling Task.
There also would be some benefit to continuing the use of the Iowa Gambling
Task. A processing speed task could be added to a study that continues the use of
stressed time limits on the Iowa Gambling Task. The inter-trial interval for the present
35
study was set at either one second or five seconds. It is possible to completely remove
the inter-trial interval causing one group to have no time between receiving the notice of
wins and losses, and picking another card. This could result in a larger variance between
the stressed time group and the non-stressed time group. Finally, some type of incentive
could be added to the study to ensure participants remain motivated throughout the task.
Conclusion. Time management can refer to all the practices that individuals
follow to maximize the use of their time. Author of First Things, First, Stephen Covey
discussed many products designed to aid in time management. These products include
the use of an alarm clock, appointment books, and personal digital assistants (Covey,
Merrill, & Merrill, 1994). In addition, there are many processes designed to aid in time
management. They include tasks lists, prioritization, and even matrices that categorize
based on level of importance and degree of urgency. The present study suggests that the
management products would be well advised to include exercises that would build the
individuals confidence in completing tasks under stressed time limits. The goal is not to
maximize our time but to optimize our abilities to make quality decisions within each
moment of time.
36
Appendix A
• In front of you on the screen, there are four decks of cards: A, B, C and D.
• I want you to select one card at a time by clicking on the card, from any deck you
choose.
• Each time you select a card, the computer will tell you that you won some money.
I don’t know how much money you will win. You will find out as we go along.
Every time you win some money, the green bar gets bigger.
• Every so often however, when you click on a card, the computer tells you that you
won some money, but then it says that you lost some money too. I don’t know
when you will lose, or how much you will lose, you will find out as we go along.
• You are absolutely free to switch from one deck to the other at any time, as often
as you wish.
• The goal of the game is to win as much money as possible, and if you can’t win,
• You won’t know when the game will end. You must keep on playing until the
computer stops.
• I am going to give you this $2000 credit, the green bar, to start the game. The red
bar here is a reminder of how much money you borrowed to play the game, and
how much money you have to pay back before we see how much you won or lost.
• It is important to know that just like in a real card game; the computer does not
change the order of the cards after the game starts. You may not be able to figure
out exactly when will you lose money, but the game is fair.
• The computer does not make you lose money at random, or make you lose money
based on the last card picked. Also, each deck contains an equal number of cards
of each color, so the color of the cards does not tell you which decks are better in
the game. So you must not try to figure out what the computer is doing.
• All I can say is that some decks are worse than the others. You may find all of
them bad, but some are worse than others. No matter how much you find yourself
losing, you can still win if you stay away from the worst decks.
• Please treat the play money in this game as real money, and any decision on what
Appendix B
You will have approximately 1 second between viewing the amount of money
won / lost and the display of “pick a card” on the computer monitor. Please select a card
within 2 seconds once you see the “pick a card” on the screen.
You will have approximately 5 seconds between viewing the amount of money
won / lost and the display of “pick a card” on the computer monitor. Please select a card
within 2 seconds once you see the “pick a card” on the screen.
identify the better decks and successfully complete the task. Do the best you can!
identify the better decks and successfully complete the task. Do the best you can!
39
Appendix C
Post-task questionnaire
O O O O O O O O O
Unable to Enough time to
think at all think before
selecting a card
2 How much did you listen to your gut (intuition) before selecting a card?
O O O O O O O O O
Not at all Entirely gut
decisions
O O O O O O O O O
Gut feelings Thought
4 Do you feel there was enough time to successfully complete the task?
O O O O O O O O O
More than
Not at all enough time
O O O O O O O O O
Very rushed Not rushed at all
O O O O O O O O O
10% sure 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% sure
O O O O O O O O O
10% sure 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% sure
O O O O O O O O O
10% sure 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% sure
O O O O O O O O O
10% sure 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% sure
O O O O O O O O O
10% sure 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% sure
O O O O O O O O O
10% sure 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% sure
O O O O O O O O O
10% sure 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% sure
O O O O O O O O O
10% sure 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% sure
42
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