SPECIAL pao Su ce ea mh Lut A SUSU SLO Ve UL a Sesv4 po BP oT aS ANU: Lhy Pires Crt) ee LOE OEY eae BY MIKE Fri a POINTERS GA DATA NTE aT Peas VOICES Nas YL LN OCS Le} DCs ae cist) # 55-36 (1) Cun pun Ts ELLs BH) POs aia) easINSIDE THE FANTASY FACTORY EDITOR LETTER N THIS WEEK’S special is- | sue, our executive entertain- ment editor Mike Hogan, in the course of mapping his own journey from Oscar skeptic to Oscar fanatic, describes the Academy Awards as “seductive yet infuriating, glamorous yet grubby, essential yet ul- timately meaningless.” It’s a description that sums up our collective approach to Hollywood’s biggest night: acknowl- edging (and poking fun at) its absurdist elements, yet embracing it all — from the rambling speeches to the overdone song-and-dance numbers.With viewership lagging among the coveted 18-to-49 demographic, and a laundry list of familiar gripes about the Oscars, Mallika Rao asks: How can the show be made bet- ter? Consulting a range of Oscar experts and en- thusiasts, she presents a blueprint for improve- ment, point by point — including the hosts, speeches, and an over- crowded Best Picture cat- egory. There's producer Bill Mechanic, who in 2010 told George Clooney, Sandra Bullock, Kathryn Bigelow, and their fellow nominees that the time- honored tradition of rat- tling a list of names “isn’t just boring, it’s the single most hated thing on the show.” And if any of this year’s winners are prepping accep- tance speeches that flaunt their politi- cal awareness, here is Gay Talese’s two cents: “Those in Hollywood who think they’re very knowing on policy may want that, but I think it’s stupid.” Elsewhere in the issue, Mike Ryan speaks with Quvenzhané Wallis, the 9-year-old who is the youngest ever Best Actress nominee, for Beasts of the Southern Wild (she was eight at the time of filming). As Ryan writes, ISN'T JUST BORING. IT'S THE SINGLE MOST HATED THING ON THE SHOW” “Funny thing: most actors won’t admit to wanting an award. If you ask them whether they think they’ll be nomi- nated, most actors will wince — actors are a superstitious lot — and offer a few innocuous words about how privi- THE leged they feel to have TIME-HONORED TRADITION OF RATTLING A LIST OF NAMES worked with this or that director or co-star. But most actors aren’t eight years old.” Quvenzhané Wallis’s answer when asked if she wants to win an award? “Yes.” Even in the movie world of larger-than-life characters and dreams come true, few scripts can rival Quvenzhané Wal- lis’s real-life story: with no acting experience, she beat out more than 4,000 other girls for the lead in Beasts. As Wallis puts it, “I know it’s something that you wouldn’t expect, but it happened.” ARIANNA ®-ANOTE FROM OUR SPECIAL ISSUE COTOR, MICHAGL HOGAN. ] FALLING FOR OSCAR, FLAWS AND ALL Y FATHER taught me to de- 1 | spise awards shows. “If I want to watch the movie, I'll watch the movie?’ he'd say. “Why would I want to watch these people con- gratulate one another?” ‘And he isn’t some lunk- head. He’s actually some- thing of an actor himself, with a long list of credits at the local community theater. Trespected his opinion, and later molded it to fit my own punk-kid resentment. In college, my best friend was always saying things like, “Can you believe Art Carney won a freaking Oscar for Harry and Tonto?” My response was always the same: “Who cares? The Os- cars are bullshit. They never reward any of the good films.” Only years later did I fall under the Os- cars’ spell. I still found them silly, but I set. aside both my childish loyalty to dad and my adolescent outrage that films like Do ABOUT THIS ISSUE the Right Thing and My Own Private Idaho were routinely ignored, and I learned to ap- preciate the Oscars for what they are: a celebration of cinematic quality, and a healthy counterbalance to Hollywood’s box-office obsession. Sure, that idea of quality can be quirky, even eccentric. Because the Academy members are who they are — old, white, male, obsessed with the Holocaust — there are lots of great mov- ies that aren’t Oscar movies, and lots of Oscar movies that aren’t great mov- ies. (What do Extremely Loud and In-credibly Close, The Blind Side and The Reader have in common? They’re all Best Picture nominees from the past five years that aren’t in your Netflix queue.) But let’s face it. If it weren’t for awards, our multiplexes would be packed with brainless shoot-em-ups, discount horror flicks, gross-out com- edies and paint-by-numbers rom-coms. It’s the promise of career-defining hard- ware that spurs executives to give Ste- ven Spielberg $65 million to resurrect the ghost of Abraham Lincoln, and Kath- ryn Bigelow $40 million to make an art film about how we got bin Laden. By now, I've become a little bit obsessed with the Oscars. It probably started when I began covering Vanity Fair’s legendary Oscar party for the magazine's website. Dancing alongside the kids from Slumdog Millionaire at 2 a.m., trying to make small talk with Mickey Rourke when he sud- denly chucked his empty drink into the shrubbery — these things stick with you, and help you remember that Hollywood is just a town, full of kooky, needy people just like any other. (OK, maybe a bit kook- ier than most, and a lot needier.) This is all a long way of saying that this issue isn’t your average cash-in-on-Oscar- fever special edition, It’s a labor of love, and it reflects the HuffPost team’s pecu- liar take on the Academy Awards: seduc- tive yet infuriating, glamorous yet grubby, essential yet ultimately meaningless. Our cover story, by Mallika Rao, tackles the eternal question: “How do we fix the Oscars?” (My favorite suggestion comes from my old V.F. colleague Henry Alford, who would transform the Best Original Song category through an inventive use of ringtones.) Elsewhere, Mike Ryan inter- views Quvenzhané Wallis, the youngest Best Actress nominee ever, and asks if it even makes sense for a girl her age to be doing the press rounds. In our Voices sec- tion, documentarian Alex Gibney makes a case against Zero Dark Thirty, and Tom O'Neil and David Rothschild offer dueling approaches to predicting the winners. In these and other features, we've tried to keep one eye on the real world and another on the great Oscar fantasy that even my dad can’t fully resist. Over the summer, I took him to see “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” and he loved it. A few weeks later, he asked me how the film was doing. “Well,” I told him, “it'll need some Oscar nominations to reach a bigger audience.” The next time we spoke, he said, “So what do you think of Beasts of the South- ern Wild’s Oscar chances?” Iwas so stunned, I barely knew how to respond, but I sure as hell didn’t say, “Who cares?” “6 MICHAEL HOGANPOINTERS What gratuitous way will Lena Dunham find to get completely nude? 0. 3 How many times will host Seth MacFarlane make fun of Jodie Foster's con founding “Iam single” speech? ‘ - Revenge hath no fury like Ryan Seacrest P _ scomed: Willhe get back at SachaBeron iT Cohen for that um-dumpingincident?Vahonae nal rent Cans fons eee en Meee Ree eae rule aie Willbros George Clooneyand Brad Pitt makelady friends Angelina Jolie and Stacy Keibler pose awkwardly togetheragain? 0 Will Emma Stone introduce Stone- ing, the act ofa celebrity lifting her dress to reveal a stone strapped onto her leg ala Jolie’ing, to the world? POINTERS Last year'sred carpet startumed out tobea |) pint-size Jack Russell Terrier named Uggie. 4 Will Ang Lee make that - look like chiles play by A bringing Richard Park- — a _| °*.theuntemablecal tiger from Life ashi 5 2 0 Oprah, Uma. Uma, Oprah. Have you kids met Keanu? Will Oprah and Uma finally have a tum at getting back at David Letterman for that gravely unfunny joke at the 1995 Oscars? Finally: Please, please tellusthat Meryl Streep is plan- ningon throwing ‘some Serious shade 4 BtUenpiferl awrenes for hersing-song ibeat Mery!" quip:E N T E R POINTERS TSS SPS ANSWERED, ON) OSCAFthat he makes me forget that YouTube and the Internet actually exist. Did Tina Fey warn you that she was going to going to send that zinger your way at the Golden Globes? No, she didn’t. I actually appreciated it. There was a part of me that thought, “Oh, I can go home with something special now.” It is a little bit of an honor to be singled out, isn’t it? I have never been made fun of at one of these things be- fore. I have never been a punch line. It is actually an honor. It’s a thrill. I read that you warned Claire Danes before impersonating her Homeland character on Satur- day Night Live. Did you happen to,run into her at The Golden Globes? I did. I had just fin- ished my press and she was backstage after she had won, and I was just so gob- smacked at how great she looked. I mean, she had just given birth about three seconds ago. And she was absolutely smoking. [Pause.] Like hot — not like that! Clear that up: Claire Danes is not a neglectful mother. So do you have any advice for Seth MacFarlane, drawing on your experience as an Oscar host? [HUGH ND PERSUASIVE THAT HE MAKES ME FORGET THAT YOUTUBE AND THE INTERNET ACTUALLY EXIST Don’t take my advice. Call Hugh. And get Emma Stone to co-host with you. You two were adorable at the announcements. How does your fashion approach differ between the Globes and the Oscars? Practically speak- ing, there is more room to have a train at the Oscars. At the Globes, because of the layout, with everybody sitting together, Ilearned the hard way that you must never wear a train. You will either be tripped on, or tripped up or tripping yourself up all night. I wore a train the first time I was nominat- ed, and first of all it just scooped up all of the red carpet. And second of all Iwas just a death trap for anybody that came near me. With the Oscars, you have a little more room. And | guess at the Globes you want to wear something where it wouldn't be too problematic if somebody were to spill a glass of red wine on you. Well, that happened to me, but not at the Globes. That hap- pened to me at a premiere for Valenti- no’s movie, and he and a producer friend of mine, Jeffrey Sharp, actually spilled an entire vat of red wine all over me. And I was wearing a white dress.Is there a third option? Because I am just very grateful. I've had plenty of years in my career where I haven’t made it to this part of the conversation. Making it here is the gift and the goal, and I feel really proud of that. 1 don’t actually know what people don’t know, but what I think people lose sight of is how vulnerable everyone feels. It’s very easy to look at people in these gorgeous dresses that cost more than a col- lege education and diamonds and hair- dos and forget that everyone is prob- ably shaking in their stilettos. T’m not sure, but at least half a dozen. Tam starting to lose count. He is so good at that. He is so charming and persuasiveYou just laugh and smile. I tried to get Val- entino to autograph the dress, but he wouldn’t do it. It actually wound up looking really pretty — it was like an ombre effect. And I couldn’t re- ally get that mad, because it was not even my dress. I think I was in the Josselyn common room at Vassar. Well, I missed the first part because I had a cappella practice. I remember being very confused, because we had just gone to war with Iraq and there was a lot of talk about “Should they can- cel it? What should we do?” And I thought Nicole Kidman gave the most beautiful, thoughtful response to that when she said, “I am so happy to be here tonight, because art is impor- tant.” I was just very grateful to her for that little rally cry.Ts fea essSUSU USSU RTLVRS RAS Hie Piet orc oe cacti Ei ee Cee Cae a Se eaSY With Oscar ight Satie NRRL ole). e-Coe-LeUELy biggest stars have worn to the awards in years past and discover how their s' has evolved. And has it ever: From a young Angelina Jolie in frills to ie Lopez in sequins, Oscar dresses have grown up along with the celebrities who have donned them. (Except you, Diane Keaton.) BY CHRISTINA ANDERSON TAPBHRRBOEE «« ARGO WRITER WHY WE UPPED THE SUSPENSE We don’t know whether the Iranians were 12 hours behind, 12 minutes behind ... we thought, in the absence of certainty, we’re just going to make it the most nail-biting, adrenélling® ene te producing version that we"@an- first feature fi FOR THE FULL INTERVIEW, VISIT HUFFPOST LIVEfilm is so well-made. Let me say, as many others have, that the film is a stylistic masterwork, an in- spiration in terms of technique from the lighting, camera, acting and viscerally realistic production and costume design. Also, as a screen story, it is admirable for its refusal to funnel the hunt for bin Laden into a series of movie clichés — love inter- ests, David versus Goliath struggles, etc. More than that, the film does an ad- mirable job of showing how complex was the detective work that led to the death of bin Laden. It’s all the more infuriating therefore, because the film is so atten- tive to the accuracy of de- tails —from wiretapping to use of informants to careful informed analysis — that it is so sloppy when it comes to portraying the efficacy of torture. That may seem like a small thing but it is not. If we believe that torture “got” bin Laden, then we will be more prone to accept the view that a good “end” can justify brutal “means” According to those who have access to the classified files, torture was not key to. unearthing the first key to finding bin Lad- en. One can refer to the press release of the Senate Intelligence Committee's study of the CIA’s Detention and Interrogation Program, which concludes, following the WHEN IT COMES TO TORTURE, THE FILM FAILS THE TRUTH TEST FOR BOTH ACCOUNTANTS AND POETS. examination of more than six million pag- es of records from the Intelligence Com- munity, the CIA did not obtain its first clues about the identity of bin Laden’s courier from “CIA detainees subjected to coercive interrogation techniques.” Iwant to focus my concern on three ways in which the film is fundamentally reckless when it comes to torture. 1 THE VERY STYLE OF THE FILM Beautifully lit, the film is often shot with a handheld camera to emphasize the urgency of a cinema verite documentary, which lends the narrative a false sense of “truthiness.” This is one reason I bristled when Boal said he shouldn’t be held re- sponsible for the film’s con- tent because it is “a movie not a documentary.” If the notion of a documentary is so distasteful, why shoot it like one? On the other hand, Bigelow says this film is a “journalistic account.” So which one is it? You can’t have it both ways. 2) THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER ZD30 opens in darkness, with the soundtrack haunted by the voices of vic- tims and rescue workers on 9/11. Then the film cuts to a CIA “black site,” where aman named Ammar is being tortured by a CIA agent named Dan (Jason Clarke)evidence, in my view.) The rationale for the invasion of Iraq was based on the false testimony of Ibn Sheikh al-Libi. Following productive, law- ful interrogation by the FBI al-Libi was handed over to the CIA, rendered to Egypt and tortured there. He was not water- boarded by the CIA. Under “harsh inter- rogation,” he confessed to connections between al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein, which was used to justify the invasion of Iraq. Around a year later, after it was too late, the CIA admitted al-Bibi had given false testimony. Whoops! While the filmmakers do show Ameri- can brutality, they suggest it was neces- sary. Absent any other kind of interroga- tion, viewers must conclude that beating people is the only way to get answers. 3) HHAT IS MISSING “Inspired” by the military’s SERE (Sur- vival, Evasion, Resistance and Escape) program (intended to teach soldiers how to resist the torture of immoral regimes), three individuals were officially water- boarded by the CIA: Abd al-Rahim al- Nashiri, Abu Zubaydah and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. Advocates of the CIA pro- gram like to cite Zubaydah as an example of how waterboarding worked. But in fact, before Zubaydah was waterboarded 83 times, he was interrogated by an FBI agent named Ali Soufan. Soufan used lawful interrogation techniques to get all the valuable information AZ had to offer, including the identity of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. More relevant to the film is the fact that KSM, during his waterboard- ing program, denied the importance of bin Laden’s courier, Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti — aman who ultimately helped lead investi- gators to bin Laden. So confident was the CIA in the effectiveness of waterboarding — despite evidence to the contrary — they assumed KSM was telling the truth about the unimportance of al-Kuwaiti when he was lying. Their unjustified confidence in waterboarding likely derailed the hunt for bin Laden’s courier until the the name of al-Kuwaiti surfaced during the inter- rogation of Hassan Ghul. (In the film, the detainee character named “Ammar” was likely a composite of Ghul, Ammar al- Baluchi and Mohammed al-Qatani, who revealed information about al-Kuwaiti through traditional interrogation tech- niques, long before Ghul. ) Boal and Bigelow, by all accounts, are frustrated that the discussion of their film has been bogged down in a political debate that they want no part of. I would say, in response, that the debate is not political at all. The subject of torture is one of the great moral issues of our time. Boal and Bigelow shouldn't run from it. They should engage it. Alex Gibney is an Oscar-winning docu- mentarian. To read the full version of this article, tap here. For a defense of ZD30 by documentarian Michael Moore, tap here.ALEX GIBNEY while another agent, Maya (well-acted by Jessica Chastain) looks on. For me, along with the ending, this was one of the film’s best moments. The juxtaposi- tion of the agony of 9/1 with the payback that fol- lowed — waterboarding detainees, walking them around in dog collars (recall Lyndie England) and stuff- ing them in small plywood boxes — perfectly captured a bitter poetic truth about how members of the Bush Administration responded to tragedy. CIA spokespeople have noted the actual waterboarding done by the CIA was more controlled and antiseptic than that por- trayed in the film. That may be so. But the fact of the matter is the CIA appears to have observed or supervised many “harsh” interrogations conducted either by independent contractors or ruth- less foreign allies. To compress time and space, I accept the way Boal and Bigelow created a “composite” harsh interrogation combining evidence from all of those. So give points to Boal and Bigelow for not pussyfooting around. They make it clear the CIA (or CIA-supervised contrac- tors) tortured people as part of a “de- tainee program.” But what’s distressing — given that tough-minded beginning — is that the filmmakers don’t ever question the morality or efficacy of torture. Every mention or portrayal of torture but- tresses the case for its necessity. We don’t see how corrupting it was, how many mis- takes were made. Instead, the narrative engine of Boal’s detective story is kick- started by torture. When the full history of “Enhanced Interrogation Techniques” is told we will see that it was not only brutal and coun- terproductive, but ridiculous. The CIA waterboarded Abu Zubaydah 83 times and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed 183 times. Considering the repetition, just how ef- fective were those techniques? And how good does the CIA look for insisting on mindless repetition of useless tactics? (Note: Clues to understanding what really happened ~ the videotapes of CIA water- boarding — were destroyed by the CIA’s Jose Rodriguez, an act that warranted a criminal indictment for the destruction ofBonne BREE ALEX GIBNEY ZERO DARK THIRTY WRONG AND DANGEROUS CONCLUSION T’S DIFFICULT FOR one film- Kathryn Bigelow have been irresponsible I maker to criticize another. and inaccurate in the way they have treat- That’s a job best left to critics. _ed this issue in their film. I am not alone However, in the case of Zero. _in that view. The film conveys the unmis- Dark Thirty, an issue that is central to the —_takable conclusion that torture led to the film — torture — is so important that I death of Osama bin Laden. That’s wrong feel I must say something. Mark Boal and _and dangerously so, precisely because thesubjective ratings, Oscar nominations and biographical data. The reason is simple: Prior to the other awards shows, there is a dearth of variables that properly iden- tify individual award categories, as most data is just movie specific. But, there are two goals of fundamen- tal models: forecasting and determining which variables have predictive power. While fundamental models do not make great forecasts for the Oscars relative to other data including prediction markets, they can still provide insight into which variables we should follow. All of the insights in this column are into the predictive power of variables, conditional on a movie getting a nomina- tion for an Oscar, at the time of the nomination. How well a movie does in the box office, especially after a few weeks, the popu- lar ratings, and how many nominations the movie receives are all significant predictive variables. STUDIO INPUTS: This category includes variables like budget, release date, genre, and when the movie goes to wide release. Some of these variables correlated strongly with whether a movie gets a nomination, but conditional on being ITIS NO SURPRISE THAT THE OSCAR VOTERS VALUE THEIR OWN ie NO MOVIES WITH MORE NOMINATIONS TEND 10 DO WELL IN WINNING OSCARS a nominee, they are not predictive of the eventual winner. For example, mov- ies released late in year are more likely to get a nomination for an Oscar, rela- tive to movies released in the spring; but conditional on getting nomination, they are no more likely to win the Oscar. BOX OFFICE SUCCESS: This category includes variables like: gross revenue, screens, av- erage gross revenue per screen, these val- ues on the first week of wide release and the first four weeks of wide release, and many other combinations. Between gross revenue and number of screens there are some really interesting variables to con- sider here. This is further complicated by the staggered opening of many Oscar nominated movies. After much investi- gation, the predictive power in this category is highly correlated with the change that happens over the first few weeks. A key inflection point appears to be between weeks four and five. For Best Picture I follow this variable closely: 2*Gross Week 5 - Gross Week 4. From week four to week five, Argo went from $13.3 million to $9.0 million, while Lincoln went from $18.0 million to $12.4 mil- lion. Thus, from this ru-DAVID ROTHSCHILD brie, Lincoln has a slightly healthier $6.8 million to $4.7 million, but this is a not a significant difference. SUBJECTIVE RATING: This category includes variables like: popular and critical rat- ings, along with the MPSAA rating. In the battle between popular and critical ratings the people win! Popular ratings dwarf the critical ratings in predictive power. Inter estingly, Lincoln and Argo are tied in criti- cal ratings, but Argo is leading Lincoln 93 to 86 in popular ratings. OSCAR NOMINATIONS: It is no surprise that that the Oscar voters value their own judgment, and movies with more nominations tend to do well in winning Oscars! There is significant and mean- ingful predictive power in the number of Oscar nominations a movie receives. In this category, Lincoln dominates with 12 nominations to Argo’s 7 nominations. BIOGRAPHICAL DATA: This category includes variables like: age, previous nominations, previous wins, and lifetime wins. Nomi- nations and wins certainly have predic tive power in the four main categories of: actor, actress, supporting actor and supporting actress. For these categories more nominations is a positive predic- tive sign. While not the case in the main categories, in less well-known categories, repeated victories by the same people are more common and, correlate significantly with victory. David Rothschild is an economist who works for MSR-NYC studying social media data, polling, and markets.WHAT IS PREDICTIVE OF THE OSCARS? SPENT SEVERAL weeks this winter immersed in spread- sheets full of historical Oscar data to explore methods of using fundamentals to predict Oscar winners. Funda- mental models work really well in forecasting political elections, where significant categories of data include: past election results, incumbency, presidential ap- proval, ideology, economic indicators and biographical data. Yet, fundamental models are much less efficient in forecasting awards shows, where they would include categories such as: studio inputs, box office success,Day-Lewis) and Supporting Actor (Tom- my Lee Jones). Best Actress is believed to be between Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) and Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), and it’s widely pre- sumed that Anne Hathaway (Les Mis- erables) has Supporting Actress in the bag. Pundit support for Lin- coin is bolstered by the fact that it leads with the most nominations (12), which usually translates into victory in the top race. However, let’s recall that Hugo had the most bids last year and The Artist took Best Picture. Lincoln does have a few other things going for it. Historically, voters have demonstrated that they like big, epic biographies like The Last Emperor (1987) and Gan- dhi (1982). Also, it’s important that a film have a compelling story behind the story it tells on screen. Last year’s victory by The Artist signaled a trium- phant return of silent movies just as the current film biz copes with the ad- vent of 3-D and the internet. The De- parted (2006) won because the Acad- emy wanted to make up for past snubs to Martin Scorsese. You could argue that Spielberg hasn’t been sufficiently appreciated IF THERE'S ONE APPLE IN A BAG OF ORANGES AT ANY AWARD'S COMPETITION THE APPLE OFTEN WINS IN AN UPSET by Oscar voters. Hollywood’s most re- vered director has only won Best Pic- ture once: Schindler’s List (1993). He’s received the director’s trophy twice (Saving Private Ryan in 1998 plus Schindler’s List), but he’s got one less Best Picture than Mi- los Forman (Amadeus in 1984, One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest in 1975) and Clint Eastwood (Mil- lion Dollar Baby in 2004, Unforgiven in 1992). That hardly seems fair. Lincoln has been a box office hit ($162 million) praised by film critics (91 score at Rotten Tomatoes), which is usually a winning Oscar combination, but it’s vulnerable in this der- by. While voters admire it, enjoy it and respect it, there’s actually more passion and gush- ing love for Argo and Silver Linings Playbook, according to my own person- al survey of Academy members. Passion usually cinches victory. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Argo doesn’t have that corresponding nomination for Best Direc- tor that’s usually essential to victory, but that may actually help its chances. Many Academy members I’ve spoken to want to rally to Ben Affleck’s wounded side. If they vote for Argo or Silver Linings Playbook for Best Picture, they feel like they canstill give Spielberg the director’s gold and take good care of him too. Personally, I’m betting on Argo to win Best Picture. I think voters like its back story of Hollywood saving the world (or at least saving the U.S. dur- ing the Iran conflict back in the 1970s) and it is, arguably, the best movie of 2012 according to film critics. Of all Best Picture nominees, it’s got the highest score at Rotten Tomatoes (97). But don’t rule out a surprise by Silver Linings Play- book. It’s bursting with heart and look who's driv- ing its Oscar campaign — Harvey Weinstein — who won Best Picture the past two years (The Artist and The King’s Speech). Nobody can trip up Dan- iel Day-Lewis in the Best Actor race or Anne Hatha- way in the Supporting Actress contest, but upsets are possible for Best Actress and Supporting Actor. I agree that Jen- nifer Lawrence or Jessica Chastain will probably snag the ladies’ laurels, but watch out for Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) and Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild). Their ages make them extremely different from other contend- ers and being different is often key to victory. If there’s one apple in a bag of oranges at any award’s competition, the YOU COULD ARGUE THAT SPIELBERG HASN'T BEEN SUFFICIENTLY APPRECIATED BY OSCAR VOTERS apple often wins in an upset. Riva has other things going for her (art house ap- peal, respect for her venerable career) and so does Wallis. Voters adore little girls and have showered Oscars on them in the past (Anna Paquin, Tatum O'Neal, Patty Duke) despite their youth. The battle over Best Supporting Ac- tor is a toss-up. If Lincoln, Argo or Sil- ver Linings Playbook wins Best Picture, Tommy Lee Jones, Alan Arkin or Rob- ert De Niro may go along for the ride. Curiously, this category is filled with five past winners — that’s never happened before. Those three chaps are beloved veterans, which helps. Voters often turn this category into a Veter- ans’ Achievement Award. Personally, I think De Niro will take it this year. But Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Mas- ter) and Christoph Waltz (Django Un- chained) are serious rivals. Arguably, they have lead roles secretly slumming it in Oscar's supporting contest. Size matters, especially in Hollywood. Other factors: Hoffman has the support of snooty cineas- tes; Waltz has the backing of wags who like to vote for other rascals. Tom O'Neil is is the founder of GoldDerby. com, an awards-show prediction site.WHAT WILL THE TOM O'NEIL OSCAR UPSETS BE? OTHING IN HOLLYWooD N goes according to script, especially at the Oscars. In past years, for example, just when most of the award pundits made up their minds that Viola Davis (The Help) and Julie Christie (Away from Her) would win Best Actress of 2011 and 2007, Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) and Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose) pulled off jaw-droppers. This year the pundits polled by Gold Derby say Lincoln will win Best Picture, Director Steven Spielberg, Actor (DanielBCP a eer) Ree et Cena Che SN Rg ‘Twentieth Century ‘quoTeD “YOU KNOW ME. I'M “Cecil B. Demille is ee JUST THE MAN HHO about to make The Ten eae a CAME TO DINNER. Commandments. Two LieineeeaAAOR REALLY | THINK THIS of them he couldn't get UUM 1c A WONDERFUL by the Breen office.” Peed hed rs THING, A BENEFIT — BOB HOPE, 1955 Sted LIKE THIS FOR When Joseph Breen took cea): a tty me over the Motion Picture Mesabsbmerm DAVID SCLZNICK. Prodvton Coe fms See — were much more rigorously Twentieth ConturyFox [aie aa am censored than before. for films lke Gone with the Wind and Rebecca. At the time of these Oscars, he had “There’s a special award for bravery for the producer who made a picture without Grace Kelly.” ~ BOB HOPE, 1955 Grace Kelly had three big films out in 1954: Rear Window, Dial M for Murder, and The Country Girl BOB HOPE: BURT, DO YOU WANT ME TO STICK AROUND AND HELP YOU TEAR OPEN THE ENVELOPE? BURT LANCASTER: BOB HOPE: LET'S NOT HAVE ANY NOSE Lilie THIS FAR DOWN INTO THE SHOW -1962CAR a ATM AT THE TIME... SHIRLEY MACLAINE: WE HAVE BEEN ASKED TO ANNOUNCE THE WINNER OF THE AWARD FOR Bee SPECIAL EFFECTS PETER USTINOV: 00 YOU THINK WE SHOULD EXPLAIN WHAT ‘SPECIAL EFFECTS’ ARE? SHIRLEY MACLAINE: WELL, PETER, THEY ARE A LITTLE DIFFICULT AND COMPLICATED TO EXPLAIN ‘ase During the 50s and 60s, many ment, ST HAVE EEMED RELEVANT “My name is Chevy Chase and | must say | feel privileged to be your host this evening. Actually I'm one of your co- hosts. Well, that’s not true. I'm really a replacement. I'm sorry to have to tell you that Jim and Tammy Bakker couldn't make it tonight. Apparently she’s taking some kind of a trip and he had to be part of some major affair.” ‘sex and money scandals in 1987, i Y“NOW TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA OF HOW | PERSONALLY FEEL ABOUT CARY. | LIKE TO SAY THAT IF CARY GRANT HAD STARRED IN THIS PARTICULAR FILM CALLED THE KISSING BANDIT, \T WOULD'VE BEEN THE BIGGEST HIT OF ALL TIME.” — FRANK SINATRA, 1970 The Kissing Bandit was a 1948 film starring Frank Sinatra that became known as one of MGM's biggest flops. at SINGLETON DIRECTED BOYZ N HE HOOD: THE DAVID DUKE STORY.” David Duke is a former Grand Wizard of the Knights of the KKK. He was a candidate in the Republican presidential primaries in 1992. ‘Quayle was the Vice President of the U.S. with George H.W. Bush. = BILLY CRYSTAL, 1992 ‘QUOTED “And who can forget Jurassic Park, the story of what happens when you build an amusement park and everything goes wrong. The original title was EuroDisney. And that's one real estate disaster they cannot blame on Hillary.” The Whitewater scandal, which began with investigations into the real estate investments of Bill and Hillary Clinton, was being examined in 1994. “The Fugitive, athriller about a person who spent days and days running just one step ahead of the law. But enough about Tonya Harding.” Tonya Harding was an Olympic figure skater who became notorious in 1994 for attacking fellow figure skater Nancy Kerrigan. ~ WHOOP! GOLDBERG, 1994Huffington. FIXING OSCAR Ca TGS Ute PVthe Beverly Hilton hotel, accord- ing to the Los Angeles Times. The ritual of rattling off a list of names while the world looks on “isn’t just boring,” declared Mechanic, who co-produced that year’s cer- It’s the single most hated thing on the show.” If only that were true. If only there were a single most hated thing about the Oscars, and a sim- ple way to kill that thing. (Mechan- ic’s idea was to create a “thank-you cam” where grateful nominees could thank their agents, junior high school principals, ete., in vid- eos that would be posted online.) But dull speeches are just one gripe ina chorus that starts up everyyear without fail: the Oscars are too long, too boring, too white, too bland. Last year, a New York Times article added a new insult, wonder- ing if Hollywood's premier awards institution had finally become “re- sistible.” Viewership has stalled in the lusted-after 18-to-49 demo- graphic. And desperate attempts to lure the bloc back — for instance, casting James Franco and Anne Hathaway as co-hosts armed with little experience but plenty of jokes about texting — only make the Academy seem more out of touch. On the battleground for rele- vance that is Twitter, the Oscars are also losing. More people watched the Grammys than the Oscars in 2012 (for the first time since 1984), and there were more tweets about the Grammys too, thanks to the show’s spry reorganization into a Whitney Houston memorial service. It’s not as if there had been nothing to talk about: Billy Crystal resurfaced as host after years off, looking like a wax version of his younger self (and, at one strange point, appearing in blackface). Iran, catalyst of so much online energy,won the country’s first-ever Os- car, for A Separation. Angelina Jolie introduced the world to her leg. But social-media experts still pronounced the night a bore. “We were prepared for big spikes,” Jenn Davis, CEO of the analytics compa- ny TweetReach, told TechCrunch. Davis was talking about spikes in tweets per second — or units of en- gagement, as a television executive might put it. But, on Oscar night 2012, “We just didn’t see those.” So, you may be asking, what’s an Academy to do? Assign 100 sham Twitter accounts per member? Return to the untele- vised days of old, when the show stretched past 2 a.m. some years, with no FCC censors (or Twitter) around to ruin the fun? In the spirit of proposing a prob- lem and also a solution, The Huff- ington Post canvassed critics, pro- ducers, and general know-it-alls to outline a master plan for the future. The prompt was simple: how would you fix the Oscars? The answers, compiled below, aren’t quite so straightforward. But taken together, they speak to the potential of a bet- ter night for all involved. All we can hope is that Don Mischer, producer of this year’s ceremony, is wearing his reading glasses. | DON'T WANT TO HAVE SOMEBODY GIVE ME THEIR VIEW OF PRESIDENT KARZAI ... THOSE IN HOLLYWOOD WHO THINK THEY'RE VERY KNOWING ON POLICY MAY WANT THAT, BUT | THINK IT’S STUPID — AUTHOR GAY TALESE THE HOST On this matter, “there'll always be a quarrel,” the writer Gay Talese told HuffPost over the phone. And yet, among those we polled, one host in particular turned up the same re- view. Billy Crystal is — let’s all say it together —“past his sell-by date, as gallant as he’s been over the years,” said MovieLine editorial di- rector Frank DiGiacomo, who rang HuffPost from the Sundance Film Festival. “They’re trying Seth Mac-Cees Set ee oeresrn eer, 2, ua rd Seno ne er) Farlane, because they want young, brash and unpredictable, but he’s got his work cut out for him. The tone is incredibly important. You're in a room of people whom you want to make laugh, but they're sensitive. It’s very easy to offend them.” Is testing the line-toeing skills of every comic in the Western world really the answer? (Or deeming them unfit even before tests, as happened to Sacha Baron Cohen, who was invited, then banned, from the stage in 2010?) Jeremy Boxer, director of the Vimeo Film Festival, a showcase for online videos, sug- gested “looking at hosts in a dif- ferent way. They don’t necessarily have to be funny.” At both Vimeo festivals (there have only been two so far), the host functioned as a master of ceremonies, in charge of mild transitions, or “punctuation points,” between moments devoted to the show’s true focus: the nomi- nated films and players. Sparing funny people from the Sisyphean task of simultaneously ripping into and coddling a bunch of touchy actors could revolutionize awards shows (or just neuter thegenre once and for all). But reduc- ing the host’s screen time won’t necessarily save our night, unless something can be done about that most hated thing. THE SPEECHES “A concise speech is always a good idea. You could give the winners forever, and they still wouldn’t have enough time to thank their grand- mother and their piano teacher,” Showbiz4ll writer Roger Friedman assured The Huffington Post. “Tell them to be concise,” Friedman sug- gested, when we asked him how to achieve the desired end. But ... the thank-you cam! Bill Mechanic’s instructions! If it were as simple as telling the nominees why and how to cut things short, why haven't past tactics worked? Because everyone wants their gratitude to be heard, and will sneak the lines in no matter how many times they've been asked not to, said Boxer, of Vimeo. He pro- posed a way to build a winners’ thank-you list into the architecture of the show instead. Scenario: Catherine, an actress wearing heels and a big dress, wins. “It’s going to take her 45 sec- onds to get to the podium,” Boxer said. “That time could be used by the announcer saying, ‘Catherine FILM ALL [THE PRESENTERS] IN ADVANCE, OFF-LOCATION HUGH JACKMAN AND HALLE BERRY PRESENT BEST SOUND, RINGSIDE FROM A BOXING MATCH . a LIN AND KATE PRESENT BEST EFFECTS FROM SONAL DAY SPA. wanted to thank her manager and this person and that person.’ By the time she comes to the stage, it’s no longer a fight against the music.” Also, no repeating your speech from the Golden Globes, or even the Screen Actors Guild Awards, once you're up there, Catherine! Channel the “wacky and emotion- ally pure” spirit of Jodie Foster at the 2013 Golden Globes instead, and go off-script, advised Mov- ieLine’s DiGiacomo. “These actors are so relentlessly on-message, it takes away the thrill of the Oscars.” Or there’s the “scorecard” idea, emailed to HuffPost by humorist Henry Alford. This system works beautifully both as a way to enliven bad speeches and to illustrate how inbred the Hollywood thank-you lists are: “Run tiny icons of Har- vey Weinstein, Sam Mendes, all the dialects coaches, etc. on a ban-ner; each time someone thanks, say, Harvey, the Harvey icon’s head would swell with volume.” THE POINT “{ don’t want it to be an opera by Puccini. I don’t want it to be a reading aloud of War And Peace by Leo Tolstoy,” Talese told Huff- Post, sounding as if he were read- ing aloud from Green Eggs and Ham by Dr. Seuss. “I don’t want to have somebody give me their view of President Karzai. I don’t want to hear about Iraq or Hillary Clin- ton. Those in Hollywood who think they're very knowing on policy may want that, but I think it’s stupid. Don’t do it on Oscar night. We're talking about entertainment.” The 80-year-old writer described his ideal Oscar night as a tour of Hollywood's “fantasy factory,” with no view to the outside world. And yet, watching our favor- ite actors and actresses fumble through cue cards is rarely a tran- scendent experience. Alford, he of the expanding Harvey Weinstein head, shared an idea on how to change that: “Film all [the pre- senters] in advance, off-location. Hugh Jackman and Halle Berry present Best Sound, ringside from a boxing match, or from the wo- mens’ bathroom at Grand Cen- tral; Josh Brolin and Kate Hudson present Best Special Effects from Cher’s personal day spa.” And what of the built-in somber moments? The In Memoriams? “We do not need a montage,” in- sisted Thelma Adams, a contribut-ing editor for Yahoo Movies. “Not. even for the dead. That’s why God created websites.” Live musical numbers are “the worst part of the show,” according to Jack Herrguth, a developer of origi- nal programming at Comedy Cen- tral. “Forget all the dancing, forget all the singing, It’s fun to watch on the Internet or talk about the next day, but during the broadcast it’s usually pretty painful. It’s bad TV” Herrguth suggested playing clips of the movies over each singer's performance. (“Adele's singing live? I couldn’t care less!” went his enactment of himself on Feb. 24, 2013.) Cutting away from musical superstars wouldn’t be the subtlest editing maneuver, but then, playing to one’s audience isn’t always a subtle game. Another possibility: dispensing with the musical performers alto- gether. (God help the person as- signed to give that message to Bar- bra Streisand, who is scheduled to sing at this year’s Academy Awards for the first time in 36 years.) Al- ford suggested using technology to fillip the Best Original Song catego- ry: “Reduce each Best Song down toa ringtone. Put each ringtone on a cellphone given to the composer. Reveal the Best Song winner by calling him in the audience.” Fin. The critics HuffPost spoke with were unanimous on this: Go back to five nominees. Everything got screwy in 2010, when the Acade- my, under pressure after The Dark Knight missed the ballot the year before, increased the number ofBest Picture nominees from five to as many as ten. According to Friedman (fan of concise speeches), the result is a ballot padded with “faux” contend- ers that waste resources campaign- ing. “There are five other movies giv- ing people parties, creating stories in the press,” he said. “A lot of money is being spent that doesn’t need to be, and a lot of time is taken up.” This year, nine nominees were chosen; the “real” five, according to AwardsDaily critic Sasha Stone, which tend to have a Best Director nod (Lincoln, Beasts Of The South- ern Wild, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook and the ringer-with-a- chance, Amour), and the “faux” four (Argo, Les Misérables, Zero Dark Thirty and Django Unchained). Which will win? Say hello to the next favorite topic for critics to rant about. Due to a “preferential” balloting system, members rank their top five movies, and No. I's are prioritized, leading to “the least polarizing best picture winner ev- ery year,” complained Stone. “Tt rewards the movies that peo- ple feel the most strongly about,” agreed Scott Feinberg, of The Holly- wood Reporter. What’s wrong with that? Well, it means a film a small- ish number of Academy members go crazy for is basically a mortal lock — producing results like Hurt Locker as Best Picture instead of Avatar. (Between those who believe a Best Picture should be popular and those who couldn’t be bothered how many people enjoyed it, there is a great philosophical divide.) In the old days, Stone told us, Avatar would have at least stood a chance of splitting the vote. But its low final tally of golden statues (won for art direction, cinematography and visual effects) means the block- buster lacked the fiery Academy support a Big Picture winner needs, according to Stone. The narrative of a battle between ex-spouses (Cam- eron v. Bigelow!) was likely not a reflection of reality so much as the public’s wish for a tight race — a phenomenon the preferential ballot renders impossible. So, differences of opinion. But our court rests on this point: back to five, please, Academy, and ditch the new ballot. Oh, and also OPEN THE GATES “[ wouldn’t want to make it like American Idol, but we're living in the age of social networking.” Herrguth said. “At Comedy Central, we're al- ways finding ways to make things more interactive for the audience.” How about a scaled-down real- ity-show format, with only a fewcategories for the general public to vote on, offered Herrguth? Best Dressed, for instance. ‘New York Magazine film critic David Edelstein added a warning: Don’t go converting core catego- ries, Best Picture might be tempt- ing to turn over to a popular vote, if only you could compel people to do their homework. Who's going to watch all nine movies? Edelstein advocated a different Kind of outreach. How would he fix the Oscars? By letting every- one know they're, well, fixed. As in rigged. Predetermined. Let the public in on the particulars: Holly- wood has its own campaign season, where stumping means trotting out a pretty actress at enough parties to impress voters with how convinc- ingly she played plain. (That's how the little-known French actress Marion Cotillard became Oscar- winning French actress Marion Cotillard, according to Edelstein). Last year, Edelstein said, the critical community knew The Art- ist would win based simply on the aggressive campaigning of Harvey Weinstein, who distributed the black-and-white silent comedy in America. “Why? How did I know The Artist was going to win? How many voters are there? Four thou- sand? Six thousand?” (By the LA THESE ACTORS ARE SO RELENTLESSLY ON-MESSAGE, IT TAKES AWAY THE THRILL OF THE OSCARS Times’ 2012 count, 5765.) “I don’t know any voters. I didn’t canvass, and yet I knew.” Edelstein proposed a counter campaign, for public awareness. “The same way that we understand that’s how politics works, or we're taught at an early age to be suspi- cious of commercials.” Not that we'd choose to strip away the show’s magic. In truth, we kvetch because we love. Even if James Franco and Anne Hathaway wind up on stage for a reunion next year with a bagful of jokes about Tumbhr it'll be OK. It may not be the night we want, but as Talese, an Oscars-watcher since circa 1940, assured us, “We're general- ly getting what we deserve.”ot A N SNL) aOR Pee aa to Rien ae eer Die CeO REC Ure eae Cee prota e nonce again. “I want to be on cone Rete teao tro SO ENS ga ysey Nee ass Sa 3 i Oe EN Sa ries, including Best Picture EBs Oe luce eee ICY Neeson antl td POP u basanites iod Perce Ain a ¢s Crap aaa SEES Gir esirty pete Meena tnnacary stay (ia) erst Pecan is in grave danger of sink- It was at this point that et pererch eee ge sen tn On TCR tom FI-VAI’ Sate e ee entios would surprise the world Pee aa ree eres 99 Pere Meets cnt er eck enced preter eescte neta CR eins eis ere rat ae CORA encase eee cette cece creer | ee Rete at) Pee netod nee tt mess a STs Roc Ceni asd OMG ee emis recat tg CE Ma Rael iiscl Geet icicle estes es COCCI C ae eee Wiis SBN CRs Opes astute Be bei) sma) eee Coon sic tentang One en ea enw eter Rca tee Daye ACER) CRI ALLL Boe Wty conversation with Wallis and Dwight Hen- ry, who plays her father in the film. Some- POT CR EN Role tcee Aen D Ree tor CORE ieee ern eto eines sre In Beasts of the Southern Wild — which Reo Renera nin r ty Ce recta tam Dea Renn aT Rca Gnas expect, but it happened,” she told me. SUe eo ene Rs R Ng CR tg ecm ecto Det UPR ate e ag TN ora eR TICS eee Bo POET REMC ent ene Te lyndriea, explained that the purpose of the Pr ea CeCe acc eaG) Pee ener ene ees a “Tt made it to red! Ahhhh! Ahhhhh!” Or crnCR CRO Sanat yay Oe TSR eRe RCo Re enn em ee rere Rehan Eee Be Kd scribed as a “firecracker,” she laughed, “yes ... because I’m made of fi-ya!” She sang the word “fire.” Her mother’s hide- Y)PRICE oT oTan aC oe Se Ras eet aCe PROC ee Gare Pees CMe One aT SRE CRG Recah) oes RSC cee es SEC CE gece Cone Pee eR eT! Pa eee ence nerd Dea ete Peon Mast tne ie eee UGE azote ee RT Ma Cig POMC eRe CREME Ctra ert Resco Bt cd ees eC eer eet at Sean Ce UE eB Crete SUCCES eee eee amet) PRTG ens eB VCE Tecem rena CRS ancien cae Le eee te eo Reo we Teg Crs ar ee ace Co ea ad having it. The likeliest reason was that I RECO CRE eR Oa ECR CS eet aun Bees athe te Ne RU Rt on ae aed Cee eae Cnet ReGen ee Cee eed sss SOMO nena eu CAN eco SCR new ec eee ccd rere) De eras ena ered NAY. Wallis if she was looking Renae SUS as es TCP En CERN a aT O err en ing Perna Ce CEng eee Ue! my friends. And everybody next to my neighborhood.” Oh, and she missed food. Well, good food, at least. Sees rca TouCeT et Ren eS Een SO MST nee Rater Rene ncarngd Ned nae) See TEE Racers Ci Sree (onan Ro eT m EUR eae ta ter likes her food spicy. I pointed out that Cnn nats usta cel eco nically seafood. “But it’s not good,” Wal- Perr SS Centra mete gett EuanDOr Pues) Bree ee eC Race temporarily at least. SU ep ee Cece Coy EN ee ea eey Pate ease Weta Teena Cte a CRs re Ca lcs PTR TRA ce CRC Nema ee ee Ce Rae PSCC ee em Ta tae NaN er og Bre Ta CT est ever” record, I wonder how many of Re ere ee tec Cet nent eG ne ected EN Te OTE EN Ce Bate BD ett Rr ee Rect Cea Soe Cee io eae it Ee ay Sear} Pen ae ee Boe a Reece aaa cnn Dee het emg Een eee DO ee umes ante “No, they never even told me that,” ncn e cee SO Cen ge ata ewe It’s been a long day for me, too. De tard once ee Mee ag emer ee mG cba meena Creu a PRES TSE Decne aaa Deters ed irra Sem R CCRC Nga TacRonee Bisco nae Euan nted Pot oem Cee Cee od EGR Cents ee Sc CE TEC e Ceca eee Oe “Everywhere,” she replied. “All the food is rubber?” Co SRT TRENT Reena OeEoercat tee a ten ae OMG R Seen RU Ce att Pen Ree em ene ERE ann nen’ Gree Tne ES CRE ern cera Orr Ee tet Resco aiid Pe ee een eRe SCRE arm E UE DE eae tear CRG ener asked. “Or in Funny thing: Most ac- tors won’t admit to want- eee aCe Demme a Comets Pg Enon Reet coeRiyTTt ee Merete eC tty ee ee Cen rac Co Ey about how privileged they feel to have So CORT RR nae Ree aC Cee a RC Nee eo eRe ner ena ICE ET wanted to win an acting award, with out hesitation she replied, “Yes.” And sce Re em TT eT er eB oner rec e ets eS aT Soa Cen CeCe cet ee Ne Lene EU CECE eta arn Oar ee eam eC) play hide-and-seek again. fmat acetic eka ane Per TT Peta coe Saree OR ac r year, and we were inside a luxury hotel room in Manhat- MURS S Cnet antes le Rae ed Ree aCe ot ne cen vata Pee aCe eventos e PEG nna arc aa Pee Ue ee RC ee ag aera TT Cee ade PRRs men cna POUR ens eta eRe Le acest Pee eens Serer een toee omg HISTORY Pe atc a hy ae Ere ha eee es eter Pee an een ow tere PCS TR ena Ee cto’ reece gee Ree ne tion, Quvenzhané Wallis, was 8 years old, PCC CR eRe eRe Cem eT octet ee ae Coen Coenen Rec rntd Ree em CONST ems nn co SR CeB Urea e TiC During Potty Time.” Demet es am ec cee While I fidgeted, Wallis’ mother, Qu- are E NU RCT ar re et a ERB uleg eRe eka ree mari li cme Sere CACB TLIC Un Geeta Ol ai Cebe CrdFTER MONTHS AY] ofspecula- tion and end- less rounds of red-carpet foreplay, it’s almost time to hand out a new set of naked metal guys at the 85th annual Academy Awards. Will Ben Affleck’s Argo manage to sneak a Best Picture envelope past customs? Can anyone challenge Daniel Day-Lewis and Anne Hathaway? Will Jennifer Law- rence pull a Sharpie out of her decol- THE GOLD RUSH letage, sign her statuette and hand it over to a fan, Terrell Owens-style? We'll find out for sure on Feb. 24, when ABC broadcasts the Oscars live from the Dolby Theatre, in Los Angeles. Until then, all we can do is bet money on the outcome. So before you fill out your Oscar pool, check out our picks be- low. We've spent far too much time and energy thinking about this, so you might as well reap the benefits.THE GOLD RUSH Amour runs deeper than we might as- sume. Which means, in a weak category that managed to ignore Affleck, Bigelow and Tarantino, Michael Haneke could sneak in and steal the trophy. Your pick of Spielberg obviously makes sense — as would Ang Lee — but both of those guys are boring. More important, they've won and they'll be here again. Who’s to say when Haneke will have another shot? BEST ACTRESS HOGAN'S PICK: JENNIFER LAWRENCE, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK Theld out for so long. I picked Jessica Chastain before even seeing Zero Dark Thirty. Then, when I saw it and realized Chastain doesn’t do anything but glower for three hours (it’s exquisite glowering, I should add), I changed my vote to Quven- zhané Wallis of Beasts of the Southern Wild. But J-Law won a Globe and the SAG, and I think she’s dancing all the way to the Dolby podium. Who's cutting the gif of Naomi Watts’ B-face? ROSEN'S PICK: JENNIFER LAWRENCE, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK Here’s what Grantland’s Zach Baron wrote about Jennifer Lawrence: “She is Godzilla stomping a building, she is a Just Blaze beat, she is all the natural di-HOGAN'S PICK: ARGO Til admit it: P've been gunning for Lin- coln ever since the movie opened, and I thought its league-leading 12 nomina- tions meant certain victory. But Argo has absolutely torn up the precursor awards, winning Best Picture equivalents at the Golden Globes, the PGAs and the SAGs, to name just a few. I don’t know if people are pissed that Affleck got snubbed for Best Director or if they just really, really like the movie (its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 97%), but Ihave a feeling they'll be partying in the embassy on Oscar night. | DON'T KNOW IF PEOPLE ARE PISSED THAT AFFLECK GOT SNUBBED FOR BEST DIRECTOR OR IF THEY JUST REALLY REALLY LIKE THE MOVIE BUT | HAVE A FEELING THEY'LL BE PARTYING IN THE EMBASSY ON OSCAR NIGHT. ROSEN'S PICK: ARCO It’s always dangerous to put too much stock in the Oscar precursors, but the momentum that Argo has at the moment feels like a legitimate movement. But should we even be sur- prised? Argo was always the mainstream movie that everyone could agree on — it’s not “boring,” like Lincoln; it’s not controver- sial, like Zero Dark Thirty; it’s not a comedy, like Sil- ver Linings Playbook. The only bump in its road to Best Picture was Affleck’s unforgivable Best Director snub. That’s the anomaly here. To one- up your hack Argo reference: Lincoln is stuck at the gate. (Best oiaccron HOGAN'S PICK: STEVEN SPIELBERG, LINCOLN Talways thought Affleck was going to win this category — until he got snubbed, along with Kathryn Bigelow and Tom Hooper. You might almost say it was an honor not to be nominated for Best Di- rector this year. Still, I think Spielberg deserves credit for (a) hir- ing Tony Kushner, (b) cast- ing Daniel Day-Lewis, Sally Field, Tommy Lee Jones and the rest of the amazing cast and (c) making a mov- ie that earned 12 freaking nominations. ROSEN’S PICK: MICHAEL HANEKE, AMOUR Record scratch! This pick is straight-up insane, and I have nothing to base it on except this: Amour had a surprisingly strong show- ing with the Academy for a foreign film, earning an almost unheard-of five nominations, including Best Picture, Best Actress and Best Original Screen- play. The support for Yzo 15% ARGO doe ms ARGO VS. LINCOLN Since its Golden Globe win, Argo’s Best Picture ab chances have shot past front-runner Lincoln, SOURCE: HUFFPOST OSCARS DASHBOARD v0 sasters at once.” What he said. Chastain didn’t stand a chance. | best Acton HOGAN'S PICK: DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, LINCOLN Is the sky blue? Is the Earth round? Does Harvey Weinstein keep a voodoo doll of Daniel Day-Lewis in his desk drawer, right next to the Fruitvale marketing deck? Will DDL win anyway? Yes, yes, yes and yes. A thousand times yes! Next category! ROSEN’S PICK: DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, LINCOLN Four score and seven years ago, we all picked Daniel Day-Lewis to win Best Ac- tor. Today, we still are. HOGAN'S PICK: ANNE HATHAWAY, LES MISERABLES Iget why people hate on Anne Hatha- way — it might be a little too obvious how badly she wants this Oscar. But I, for one, respect the fact that she's in it to win it and actually cares about this whole ridiculous carnival that I’ve spent a sizable portion of the past six months thinking and writing about. Sure, she’s being rewarded for a single musical num- ber — but what a number! And what else are you going to do? Give Sally Field her third Oscar? ROSEN'S PICK: . ANNE HATHAWAY, LES MISERABLES Perhaps we're not giving enough credit to Hathaway: In an iffy year for support- ing actresses — where two nominated actresses, Helen Hunt and Amy Adams, arguably gave lead performances — Ha- thaway has been the front-runner since August. That she lived up to all that ad- vance hype is a minor miracle. She de- serves this award more than every other actress in this category combined. YBEST SUPPORTING ACTOR HOGAN'S PICK: TOMMY LEE JONES, LINCOLN THE GOLD RUSH ROSEN’S PICK: ROBERT DE NIRO, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK He’s cranky in the movie. He’s cranky at the awards shows. At least he doesn’t wear a ridiculous wigat the awards shows. And he’s already got an Oscar — but so does everybody else in this category. At the end of the day, though, Tommy Lee Jones gives a soulful per- formance as Thaddeus Stevens, a wily old abolitionist who puts his ideals on the back burner for the greater good. I say give him the damn trophy so he can go home and take a nap. Best Supporting Actor is the one acting category still relatively up for grabs; you could make an argument for any of the five actors winning here. My argument goes for De Niro, who gives his best per- formance in a decade in Silver Linings Playbook and hasn’t won an Oscar since 1981. (Paging Meryl Streep ... ) He’s not necessarily due, but rewarding De Niro, at the very least, might keep him from co-starring with 50 Cent in an- other movie. (A boy can dream.)ee NON-MATHEMATICALLY PREDICT PLIST hs EMSC OUND cmt )OBERT DE NIRO is widely 3] regarded as one of the best actors of his generation, so it may surprise you to learn how long he went without making a truly great movie. (Sure, we all laughed at Meet the Parents back in 2000, but Meet the Parents is no The Deer Hunter.) The Oscar nomination De Niro earned with his supporting role in last year’s Silver Linings Playbook is his first since 1991, when he played that crazy guy who clings to the bottom of Nick Nolte’s car in Cape Fear. And he hasn’t won an Academy Award since 1981, when he portrayed the tormented boxer Jake La~ Motta in Raging Bull.in 1929, only three films have won Best Picture without a corresponding nomination for Best Di- rector: Wings, which earned the equiv- alent of Best Picture at the first Oscar ceremony in 1929, Grand Hotel and Driving Miss Daisy. About those films: When Wings won Best Picture the category was called Outstanding Picture, and only two other films received nominations (The Racket and Seventh Heaven). There were also two Best Director categories at the first Oscars (Best Director, Comedy Picture and Best Director, Dra- matic Picture). In the end, the only film honored with nominations for both Best Director and Outstanding Picture was Seventh Heaven. At the 1932 ceremony, Outstanding Picture became Outstanding Produc- tion and winner Grand Hotel was among eight films nominated in the category. There were only three Best Director nominees total, however, making Grand Hotel director Edmund Goulding’s snubthe actors branch, a group made up of famous faces like Warren Beatty, Jen- nifer Lawrence and even Beyonce. That means Argo could have a leg-up on the competition given its behind-the-scenes team: In addition to Ben Affleck, the film was produced by George Clooney, the unofficial king of Hollywood. If Argo gets a wave of sup- port from the actors branch, it could wind up with the necessary first, second and third place votes to defeat Lincoln. (With Best Picture being voted on with BEHIND THE SCENES a preferential ballot, a film that receives a lot of sec- ond place votes could wind up winning.) So, could Argo or Zero Dark Thirty win Best Picture? Films like Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook and Life of Pi — the only Best Picture nominees with both Best Director and Best Editing nods — are clearly in better historical position, but it would be foolish to dis- count either film, even if the AMPAS already discounted Affleck and Bigelow.somewhat more understandable; though whether he would have been nominated if the Best Director category included five names is unknown. (Oscar voting is an infamously private endeavor.) That leaves Driving Miss Daisy as the only modern-era film to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomi- nation. The 1989 movie received nine nominations at the 62nd annual Acad- emy Awards, the highest total of any film nominat- ed that year, but none for director Bruce Beresford. The 1990 ceremony was somewhat bizarre: Of the five films nominated for Best Picture, only three received correspond- ing Best Director noms — Born on the Fourth of July and Oliver Stone, who won the award; Dead Poets Society and Peter Weir; and My Left Foot and Jim Sheridan. Which means, based on history, films like Argo and Zero Dark Thirty (which saw its director, Kathryn Bigelow, snubbed by the Academy Awards as well) face quite the obstacles on the road to winning Best Picture. Yet, there's still some hope. Oscar history shows that Best Ed- iting is usually a good indicator of a film’s Best Picture bona fides; the last time a movie won Best Picture with- out being nominated for Best Editing OSCAR HISTORY SHOWS THAT BEST EDITING IS USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR OF A FILM'S BEST PICTURE BONA FIDES THE LAST TIME A MOVIE WON BEST PICTURE WITHOUT BEING NOMINATED FOR BEST EDITING WAS 1980'S ORDINARY PEOPLE. was 1980's Ordinary People. Well, not only was Argo nominated for Best Edit- ing, it could win the award: According to the Academy Awards prognostica- tion site GoldDerby.com, Argo has the best chance of winning Best Editing on Feb. 24, with 19/10 odds. Zero Dark Thirty, meanwhile, received a nomination for Best Editing as well, and ranks just behind Argo in the category, according to GoldDerby.com. Of course that doesn’t mean Argo will win Best Picture over Lincoln: The last two films to win Best Editing at the Oscars were The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo and The Social Network, and nei- ther triumphed in the Best Picture category. There’s another, less analytical reason that — of the two films with ma- jor Best Director snubs — Argo could triumph: the actors branch. Of the 5,784 members of the AM- PAS, roughly 1,172 are in YTHE 84 YEARS OF HISTORY BETWEEN EN AFFLECK’S Argo may Affleck was snubbed by the Academy B have won Best Motion Pic- _ of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences in ture for a Drama at the the Best Director category, putting 84 Golden Globes, but the film _years of Oscar history between his film could have a difficult time repeating and the gold statuette. the victory come the Since the first Acad- Oscars. That’s because emy Awards ceremonyTt BIGELOW IS ‘OVERRATED’ BECAUSE SHE'S A‘HOT =, WOMAN® \ Srvc) aa P Sane L LL JACKSON JUNIOR PARTNER SETH ACHARLANE OKE, BEFORE THE HOW EVEN STARTS (=) GHP oscans ane ey THE STUPIDEST Tung WN THE WHOLE woRiD#PEOPLE KISSING - THE BACKSIDES OF FAMOUS PRODUCERS MAKES ME WANT TO THROW UP. H AMERICABEST PICTURE Zero Dark Thirty ‘Silver Linings Playbook Lincoln Les Miserables Life of Pi Amour Django Unchained Argo Boosts ofthe Southern Wild BEST ACTRESS BW Jessica Chastain for Zero Dork Thirty BE Noomi Watts for The Impossible BE Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook BH Quvenzhané Walls for Beasts of the Southern Wild I Emmanuelle Riva for Amour BEST ACTOR Danie! Day-Lewis for Lincoln Denzel Washington for Fight Joaquin Phoenix for The Moster Hugh Jackman for Les Miserables BW Bredley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS BW Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables WW Sally Feld for Lincoln Jacki Weaver in Sikver Linings Playbook BE Helen Hunt for The Sessions Amy Adams for The Moster BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Tommy Lee Janes for Lincoln Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained BE Alan Arkin for Argo Robert De Nico for Silver Linings Playbook BEST DIRECTOR Ang Lee for Life of PY Steven Spielberg for Lincoln BH David 0. Russel for Silver Linings Playbook I Michael Hancke for Amour BE Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY WE Lincoln I Siker Linings Playbook H Ago Life of Pi Boosts ofthe Southern Wild BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY WE Zero Dark Thirty Django Unchained WE Moonrise Kingdom Armour WE Flight BEST ANIMATED FILM WE Fronkenweenie The Prates! Band of Misfits Wreck: Raloh 1 Paranorman Brave BEST FOREIGN FEATURE Amour WA Royal Afforr Wh Kon-Tiks HN Wor Witch BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Life of Pi The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Wh The Avengers Prometheus Snow White and the Huntsman BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 1 Siyfail ‘nna Karenina Django Unchained WH Lifeof Pi Lincoln BEST COSTUME DESIGN Anna Karenina WE Les Miserables Lincoln Wh Miror Mirror 1 Snow White and the Huntsman BEST DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE) Searching for Sugar Mon WE How to Survive o Plague WE The Gotekeepers 5 Broken Cameras The Invisible Wor BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT) Open Heart WE Inocente: I Redemption WH Kings Point Mondays at Racine BEST FILM EDITING Lincoln I Silver Linings Playbook Wi Lifeof Argo WE Zer0 Dark Thirty BEST MAKEUP The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey HE Les Miserables Wi Hitchcock BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE) HE Mychae! Danna for Life of P Alexandre Desplat for Argo WE Dario Marineli for Anna Karenina BE John Wiliams for Lincoln IE Thomas Newman for Skyfoll BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG) IE "Before My Time from Chasing loe “Everybody Needs A Best Friend” from Ted P's Lullaby” fom Life of P) "Suddenly" from Les Misérables IE “Skyfall” from Shyfal BEST SOUND EDITING Argo Django Unchoined WE Life of Pi Skyfall WE Zer0 Dark Thirty BEST SOUND MIXING Ago Wi Les Miserables WE Life of BE Siyfoll Lincoln BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION) Curlew WE Death of a Shadow WE Heny WE Buzkashi Boys Wi Asod BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED) WE Head Over Heels I Fresh Guacamole Poperman IE Maggie Simpson in The Longest Dayeare WE Adiom and DogHUFFINGTON POST HUFFPOST LIVE MUST WN ed HUFFPOST LIVE Re Live.HuffingtonPost.com | Facebook.com/HuffPostLive | @HuffPostLivePC ene Mat Senet Woon) Corot Cre eae Da Been Srna en Cee RON Managing Editor: Gazelle Emami Se oe Editor-at-Large: Katy Hall Senior Politics Editor: Sasha Belenky Saeed Quoted Editor: Annemarie Dooling Ae es Cy See ae See aCe Sere eee ees BEC Rug ec PCR Photography Director: Anna Dickson een Cea Lae Dee Remo Cy Production Director: Peter Niceberg UO} SUnNY Co TT ley eee run Ng ene Product Managers: Jim Albrecht, Gabriel Giordani, Julie Vaughn enact De Ce CORE N NV a UC men een elo Roe en Re nC) CEC CUCU NUR Leen Sales: Mandar Shinde, Jami Lawrence ema Cees Pre