2020 IEEE 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Applications
Assessment and Improvement of the Non-structural Mitigation Flood Preemptive
Protocol of Marikina City
Hazel Anne R. Abu, Nympha M. Espiritu, Monica
Jane A. Ramos
School of Industrial Engineering and Engineering
Management
Mapua University
Manila, Philippines
e-mail: haabu@mapua.edu.ph,
nmespiritu@mapua.edu.ph, mjaramos@mapua.edu.ph
Abstract—Marikina City has a long history of problems with
flooding, being the catch basin of rivers from nearby cities, the
river overflows whenever there is excessive rain. From the year
2012 to 2018, a total of 31,978 families has evacuated in 19
typhoons. The city has a Non-structural mitigation flood
protocol implemented to address flood risk and damages as
well as to mitigate potential life loss through regulations and
best management practices. However, the preemptive
evacuation program cannot guarantee that all affected families
can be evacuated on time. Currently, the evacuation time
during pre-emptive evacuation exceeds the working hours of
Marikina City by 3.25 hours. For this reason, the study aims to
systematically review the flood management actions of
Marikina City and its impact on the community through
survey and historical data, identify the significant factors
affecting the evacuation time, and subsequently improve its
flood protocol system. Statistical analyses and transportation
model were used to determine the (1) minimum travel time per
family per trip, (2) required number of responders and
vehicles per pick-up-point, (3) number of monitoring personnel
needed per evacuation center, and (4) optimal allocation of the
evacuees in the evacuation centers available. Lastly, Job
descriptions and job specifications for every personnel
involved, including work instruction manuals and standard
operating procedures for specific and clear instructions of
activities that have to be done during preemptive evacuation
were recommended in this study.
Keywords-preemptive; evacuation; flood protocol; non-
structural mitigation; transportation model
I. INTRODUCTION
The Philippines is known to be one of the most disaster-
prone countries in the world. The country's geography makes
it susceptible to hydro-meteorological and geophysical
hazards such as tropical cyclones, hurricanes, storms,
typhoons, floods, droughts, earthquakes and volcanic
eruptions [1]. Among the hazards, typhoons and floods are
considered to be the most destructive with their economic
and social impacts. These hazards have accounted for 80
percent of all deaths, 90 percent of the total number of
affected people, and 92 percent of the total economic impact
[2]. To reduce the impact of such hazard, flood risk
management is done which are categorized in two: structural
978-1-7281-6785-5/20/$31.00 ©2020 IEEE
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Jenalyn Shigella G. Yandug
School of Industrial Engineering and Engineering
Management
Mapua University
Manila, Philippines
e-mail: jsgyandug@mapua.edu.ph
and nonstructural intervention. Structural measures pertain to
the construction of dams and bridges, maintenance of
existing infrastructures. On the other hand, non-structural
measures pertain to the mapping of hazard zones, early
warning systems, and weather forecasting systems [3].
Metro Manila, the economic, political, and social center
of the Philippines, is considered to be the most vulnerable to
flooding due to its low elevation, high population, and
urbanization [4]. Marikina City is no exception to this
perennial problem, being a low-lying area, is regularly
exposed to flooding in which the Marikina river escalates
and overflows when there is excessive rain. The city has a
long history of problems when it comes to flooding wherein
from the year 2012-2018, 19 typhoons have affected
Marikina City in which a total of 31,978 families has
evacuated. In typhoon Ondoy, about 180,000 people were
affected by the flooding in Marikina City alone [5].
Most of the households live in the slum or squatter
settlements, have low incomes and do not have enough
access to potable water, electricity, health, facilities for
sanitation and sewage. One-third of these households had
incurred higher losses (e.g. workdays and income) and
intense inconveniences (e.g. toilets blocked with wastes or
large worms on their floors, source of water buried by
floods). About two-thirds of these households suffered losses
or damage (e.g. work, income, sickness/health, household
damage) from floods, typhoons, and storm surge. Whether in
its normal state or flooded state, the river poses a hazard to
the communities. Marikina follows preemptive evacuation
procedures whenever there is a potential flood. The river
level rose too much that informal settlers had to stay in
evacuation centers until the flood subsides whenever there is
continuous typhoons or heavy downpours [6]. These effects
of the flood had a disastrous impact on the people in the
community.
Previous studies in evacuation planning and management
focused more on minimizing the travel time, optimizing the
allocation of evacuees to the available shelters considering
its shelter capacity, and minimizing the evacuation costs
[7],[8],[9]. Factors such as vehicles and personnel are not
considered and emphasized in these studies since it focuses
mainly on the route, time, cost, and network capacity
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[10],[11]. These indicate that there is a need for additional TABLE I. SUMMARY OF FACTORS PER PROTOCOL
study prioritizing the optimal and proper allocation for the
FACTORS /
resource like vehicles and personnel and at the same time PROTOCOL
RESOURCES
INDICATORS
minimizing the travel time and considering the capacity of Public Information (Social
the evacuation centers. Number of personnel
Information Media)
The authors have concurred that a thorough flood Dissemination Alarm Level Information Number of personnel
protocol and management in place before a flood occurs can Philippine National Police Number of police officer
avoid damages and life loss in a community, and should Bureau of Fire Protection Number of firemen
Number of police mobile
encompass (1) proper allocation of evacuees to evacuation Stand by or Roving Police
(vehicle)
centers, (2) determination of resources needed, (3) Safety and
Officers
Number of police officer
emergency functions and who will perform the task, and (4) Security Number of personnel
Office of the Public Safety
specific evacuation procedures including routes or pick up and Security
Number of handheld
points. Thus, the researchers attempt to accomplish this by radios
Number of vehicles
applying the concept of a transportation model to determine
Number of
the proper allocation of resources in every evacuation center Transported Evacuees
communication devices
depending on the number of families it holds as well as the Evacuation Number of responders
optimal usage of existing resources. Data used in this paper Disaster Risk Reduction
were taken from Rescue 161 or the Marikina City Disaster Management Council Number of responders
Assistance
Risk Reduction Management Office (MCDRRMO). With
Registration Personnel Number of personnel
the given data, the current preemptive evacuation of City Camp Managers Number of personnel
Marikina City was assessed and studied. Number of doctors
Camp City Health Office
Number of nurses
II. METHODOLOGY Management
Food Preparation Number of cooks
The study considered four flood protocols of the existing Number of distributors
Food Distribution Number of monitoring
preemptive evacuation program of Marikina City, shown in personnel
Figure 1, namely (1) Information Dissemination, (2) Safety
and Security, (3) Evacuation, and (4) Camp Management. Moreover, these factors were used in a survey to assess
the current flood protocol system of Marikina City. Based on
the responses of the survey, the experiences of the evacuees
were understood, and the weak points of the current flood
protocol system were determined.
A. Data Collection
A survey was conducted on the residents of the twelve
barangays in Marikina City, which were affected by
typhoons based on historical data. To determine the sample
size, the researchers projected the population size per
barangay for 2020, using Statistical Straight Line, and
multiplied it by the average percentage taken from the
historical number of families evacuated per pick up point.
The population size (N) was used in the Slovin’s formula
Figure 1. Flood protocol system framework. and the sample size (n) of 360 was obtained. Furthermore,
the researchers used a stratified random sampling technique
Information Dissemination category pertains to to increase the precision of the sample size. Each pick-up
informing and advising the media, government offices, and point per barangay was grouped as a stratum which was used
barangays about the current flood disaster. The safety and in the random sampling. In calculating the sample size each
security category maintains the overall order and security of stratum, the researchers utilized the formula below:
the areas. For the evacuation system, this category manages
the pre-emptive evacuation of the residents in Marikina City. 𝑁ℎ
𝑛ℎ = ∗𝑛 (1)
Lastly, the camp management is where the evacuees will be 𝑁
kept in-house for shelter and safety purposes.
Also, factors for each protocol, recognized as the where N is the total population size, n is the total sample size
resources that are needed to implement or operate the while Nℎ is the population size of stratum h and nℎ is the
current system, were identified based on the task or role of sample size for stratum h. Table II shows the result of
each agency and department involved using process stratified random sampling and the number of respondents
mapping. Table I listed the four categories of the flood per barangay.
protocol and their factors.

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 TABLE II. RESPONDENTS PER BARANGAY USING STRATIFIED
RANDOM SAMPLING TECHNIQUE
B. Data Analysis
The survey responses and the factors affecting the flood
protocol system of Marikina City is used in a series of
statistical analyses. First, the multiple linear regression was
used to identify the significant factors affecting the
evacuation time wherein the researchers determined the
relationship between several independent or predictor
variables and a dependent or criterion variable. In this case,
the response variable is the average evacuation time per
family and the factors are the following: PIO/ Information
personnel, Police Mobile, OPSS/ Personnel, Police Officers,
Vehicles, MSO/ Responders, BDRRMC/ Responders,
Registration Personnel, Doctors, Nurses, Cooks, Distributors,
and Monitoring Personnel. Results show that there are three
significant factors obtained which are vehicles, Marikina
Settlement Office (MSO) responders, and monitoring
personnel as they have shown a P-value less than 0.05 of
0.022, 0.049, and 0.014, respectively.
Evacuation Time = 30.2 + 1.475 * PIO/information personnel – 0.479 *
police mobile – 0.335 * police officers + 0.110 * OPSS/personnel – 2.041 *
vehicles + 0.2557 * MSO/responders – 0.0435 * BDRRMC/responders –
0.689 * registration personnel – 1.97 * doctors + 0.564 * nurses + 0.759 *
cooks + 0.054 * distributor + 0.1487 * monitoring personnel
Results of the correlation analysis, which is used to
determine the relationship between evacuation time and the
resources used during the preemptive evacuation as well as
the relationship between factors indicate that there is a strong
negative relationship between the resources: MSO/
responders, BDRRMC/Responders, Vehicles, Police mobile,
Police Officers, OPSS/Personnel and evacuation time, since
the values of the correlation coefficients are greater than r =
0.70. Meanwhile, there is a moderate negative relationship
between Monitoring Personnel and evacuation time since the
correlation coefficient is greater than r = 0.50 but less than r
= 0.70. This means that as the resources decrease, the
evacuation time increases and vice versa. As for the police
officers and police mobile, there is a very strong positive
relationship between the two since r = 0.9589 which means
that increasing the number of police officers, the number of
police mobile also increases.
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III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
A. Survey Results
Relevant results of the survey show that 67.38% of the
respondents answered that they have waited for more than 30
minutes before getting picked up, while 65.16% of the
respondents mentioned they were not assisted by the
responders during the evacuation procedure and 65.44% of
the respondents waited in line for more than 15 minutes to
receive relief goods. On top of that, the total satisfaction
rating of the respondents on the current evacuation procedure
was classified and 42% are dissatisfied while 39% are
satisfied, and only 19% are very satisfied. Overall, the
assessment of the current system with the use of survey
questionnaires and statistical analyses showed that the
current flood protocol system has a problem in terms of the
number of deployed resources under the evacuation category
specifically vehicles, monitoring personnel, and responders.
B. Cause-Effect Relationship Analysis
The issues in the current evacuation protocol were
further analyzed in a why-why diagram, as shown in Figure
2.
Figure 2. Why-why diagram of flood evacuation problems.
The why-why analysis was conducted to breakdown the
issues encountered in the implementation of the protocols
and address the true root cause of the problem. Findings
showed that lack of vehicles, responders, and monitoring
personnel are due to the inconsideration of the municipality
on population growth and the improper allocation of
resources.
To prove that the protocol issues influence the total
evacuation time, the total travel time per family per trip and
the allocated evacuees per evacuation center based on the
assigned percentages were determined by sum product. In
the current system, the total time to evacuate families per
pick-up point is 19,668 minutes or 17.25 hours which
exceeds the total time per shift of work of 14 hours or 840
minutes. Moreover, not all evacuation centers are utilized.
When the evacuation centers are full, the evacuees that just
got arrive will be transferred to another center. This is
because of the outdated system that the City is currently
using. The system has not considered the population growth
and the effect of the increase in the number of families to be Transportation Formulation
evacuated on the resources. From that, it takes time for the
𝑀𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑧𝑒 ∑ 𝐶𝑖𝑗 𝑋𝑖𝑗 (2)
evacuees to rest and arrive at their respective evacuation
centers.
Let Xij = number of evacuees from pick-up points to
C. Proposed System for the Allocation of Resources and evacuation areas
Evacuees in the Evacuation Areas Where:
To address the issues identified in the evacuation process i = pick-up point,
of Marikina City, a how-how diagram was prepared, as seen j = evacuation center
in Figure 3. The how-how analysis was done to help the C = travel time per family from pick-up point to the
researchers propose the following actions: (1) Population center
count down to the barangay level must be updated. It is Marikina City has 19 pick-up points and 20 evacuation
suggested that responsible authorities should perform a centers.
census of the population each year wherein records are
updated regularly. (2) Determine the number of evacuees per
pick up point. To do so, the researchers developed a
transportation model to allocate evacuees from pick up point
to evacuation centers. (3) Calculate the ratio of responders to
evacuees and the required number of responders per pick up
point. (4) The hiring of personnel based on job standards,
and to do so Job description and specifications as well as
work instructions were developed by the researchers and a
training plan was also provided.

Figure 4. Lingo software result of transportation model.

The objective function of the model is to minimize the

total pre-emptive evacuation time of the whole system.
Based on the result showed in Figure 4, the objective
function decreased to 15,167 minutes or 13.30 hours per shift,
thus, minimizes the current evacuation time and is less than
the current working hours per shift.
Figure 3. How-how diagram of flood evacuation solutions. TABLE III. PROPOSED NUMBER OF EVACUEES PER EVACUATION
CENTERS FROM PICK UP POINTS
1) Number of evacuees per evacuation center
To recommend the required number of resources to be
deployed, the allocation of the evacuees from pick-up points
to evacuation centers was first established. This was solved
by formulating a transportation model and the researchers
used the projected number of families to be evacuated per
barangay for the year 2020. Total travel time from pick-up
points to evacuation centers is determined with unloading
and loading time. Evacuees are transported by families
where the average number of members is 5. Thus, the total
travel time with loading and unloading is divided by 5 family
members to get the total time per family evacuated which
ranges from 4 to 11 minutes per trip.
The Transportation Model was then used to determine
the allocation of the evacuees from pick-up points to
designated evacuation centers. There are two sets of
constraints considered, the row (pick-up points) and column
(evacuation center capacity) constraints. The row constraints The proposed number of evacuees per evacuation from
will be the demand in each pick-up point with 19 row pick-up points, shown in Table III, is the result of the
constraints, while the capacity of each evacuation center will simulation of the transportation model in which the proposed
have 20 column constraints. To formulate the model, these allocation of evacuees from pick-up points to evacuation
variables were used and simulated using the Lingo Software. centers minimizes the pre-emptive evacuation time. Thru this,
the evacuees will now be provided with their new pre-

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determined evacuation centers. This shall now be the basis of
the proposed system on allocating evacuees in each
evacuation centers and in determining the allocation of
resources such as vehicles, monitoring personnel, and
responders in each evacuation centers and pick-up points.
2) Number of responders
Responders are the personnel assigned in each pick-up
point to assist in transferring evacuees to the evacuation
centers. Similar to evacuation wardens, they help evacuate
and transfer people from danger to safe areas. To determine
the required number of responders, the researchers based it
on the projected demand of evacuees per pick-up point.
Generally, one warden is assigned for every 20 evacuees and
by ratio and proportion, the researchers were able to compute
the required number of responders for each pick-up point.
The analysis showed that 14 pick-up points need additional
responders while the remaining pick-up points have 11
excess number of responders. The excess responders shall
then be distributed to pick-up points that need additional,
therefore, for the 38 additional responders required for the
proposed system, only 27 are needed to be hired to
accommodate the demand of evacuees per pick-up point.
3) Number of monitoring personnel per center
Assigned in evacuation areas are monitoring personnel
responsible for checking and monitoring the evacuees and
the current situation inside the centers. The ratio of 1
personnel per 20 evacuees is also used for the proposed
number of monitoring personnel. Centers with the excess
number of personnel will be distributed to the 10 evacuation
centers that need additional monitoring personnel. Thus, the
proposed system will only be requiring 17 new monitoring
personnel and therefore increasing the number of monitoring
personnel and allocating them to the right centers will
accommodate and assist all the evacuees in the centers.
4) Number of vehicles
The proposed number of vehicles was based on the
recommended allocation of evacuees per center and the total
time of shifts per day of 14 hours or 840 minutes. It is
computed using the formula:
𝑥𝑖
∑[(𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑙 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝)∗ ( )]
𝑉𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑐𝑙𝑒 = 5
(3)
840
Results showed that four pick-up points need an
additional vehicle, in which a total of 4 vehicles needs to be
allocated. These additional vehicles will be able to
accommodate and transfer the evacuees on time and lessen
their waiting time for more than 30 minutes in their
respective pick-up points.
D. Proposed Management Actions
Having a clear and well-defined structure of the flood
protocol system is essential in mitigating flood risks and
damages. Therefore, it is also recommended in this paper
management actions such as job descriptions, work
instructions and standard operating procedures to be used as
implementing guidelines for the proposed system. With
policies and procedures in place, the local government of
Marikina City can be assured of the improvements in the
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overall workflow and the utilization of the resources during
the pre-evacuation processes.
IV. CONCLUSION
This study showed that an increase in population and its
effect, if not monitored, is crucial in sustaining a pre-
evacuation program as it can affect the efficiency of a well-
structured program. By studying the current flood protocol of
Marikina City and considering the factors involved, it is
revealed that the current allocation of resources was not able
to support the current population of the city. The improper
allocation of resources involved in the preemptive
evacuation of Marikina city indicated that there is a need for
improvement to undertake the discomfort of the evacuees as
well as the areas or processes in the current evacuation
program. To address this, a transportation model was
developed and determined the optimal allocation of (1)
evacuees in the evacuation center, (2) responders in pick-up
points, (3) monitoring personnel in the evacuation centers
and (4) number of vehicles. It is also generally recognized
that there is a need to advance policies and practices to
reduce the risk of disasters and ensure that protocols are put
in place for the effective integration of pre-emptive policies
in disaster management processes [12].
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