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USMAQuarterlyInsightsSept2018 PDF
USMAQuarterlyInsightsSept2018 PDF
Executive Summary
This report, created by the BMO Capital Markets Mergers & Acquisitions team, provides an
update on selected key trends that we are observing in the public M&A markets.
1. The premium in this document is defined as a five day premium. BMO analyzed one day as well as thirty day volume weighted average prices,
both of which yielded similar trends.
2
2. YTD2018 and ‘18 YTD in this document is defined as through July 31, 2018.
U.S. M&A Quarterly Insights
~40%
21% Median market
premiums during the
Great Recession
3%
Median acquisition Median 3-year historical
premium in ’18 YTD revenue growth rate of
publicly acquired
approaching a
companies in ‘18 YTD
15-year low
~3,500
Days
15-20% 12.8x
Current median
Length of current Median acquisition LTM EBITDA transaction
multiple, slightly lower
bull market, longest
in U.S. history
premium for larger than than the median
statistic of 13.4x
$500MM transactions in ‘17
‘18 YTD
4.9x
Difference between
26%
Median acquisition
premium for sub
23.3x
median LTM EBITDA
$500MM transactions
multiple of largest
quartile of transactions
(~14x) and smallest ‘18 YTD top quartile
quartile of transactions LTM EBITDA multiple
(~9x) of publicly acquired
3.5x
companies
3
U.S. M&A Quarterly Insights
Are we entering a new norm for what is now considered a “market” acquisition
premium during the tenth year of the U.S. equity bull market?
During the Great Recession, Five Day Premium vs. EV / LTM EBITDA Transaction Multiples
median market premiums rose
to near 40% as equities began
5 Day Premium EV / LTM EBITDA
to recover from the 2009 trough
Beginning in 2013 when the
equity markets began to hit all- 16.0x 37% 38% 37% 40%
36% 36%
time highs, we have seen a 33%
relatively consistent downward 14.0x
28% 26% 30%
trend in acquisition premiums 13.1x 13.4x
(with the exception of 2016) 12.8x
12.0x 12.0x 11.9x 12.0x
The YTD2018 median 11.1x 20%
acquisition premium of 21% is 10.5x 27%
10.0x 22%
approaching its 15-year low of 9.8x 9.8x 21%
20%, achieved in 2004 9.0x
10%
These historically low 8.0x
YTD2018
20%
9.0x 10.0x 11.0x 12.0x 13.0x 14.0x
Source: FactSet
Note: Premium data presented as five day premiums. Premium data includes all public pending / closed deals with U.S. targets. Additionally, transaction
multiple data only includes transactions with EV / LTM EBITDA multiples between 3x and 40x. All data presented is median data. 4
1. Throughout the document, “LTM” is defined as last twelve months and “NTM” is defined as next twelve months.
U.S. M&A Quarterly Insights
10%
Source: FactSet
5
Note: Premium data presented as five day premiums. Premium data includes all public pending / closed deals with U.S. targets.
U.S. M&A Quarterly Insights
Source: FactSet
6
Note: Premium data presented as five day premiums. Premium data includes all public pending / closed deals with U.S. targets.
U.S. M&A Quarterly Insights
Source: FactSet
Note: Premium data includes all public pending / closed deals with U.S. targets. Additionally, transaction multiple data only includes transactions with EV / 7
LTM EBITDA multiples between 3x and 40x. All data presented is median data.
U.S. M&A Quarterly Insights
13.8x
13.3x
13.0x
12.9x
strategic buyers have
12.4x
12.2x
12.2x
11.9x
11.4x
11.3x
11.1x
10.8x
10.7x
exceeded that of sponsor
10.5x
10.3x
9.9x
9.6x
buyers by ~2.5x and
8.9x
8.9x
8.4x
7.7x
7.4x
~700bps, respectively
Several interesting underlying
trends are apparent when
comparing strategic to
sponsor buyers over the past
several years
YTD2018 median
purchase premium is 21%
for each of strategic and
sponsor buyers – the last Strategic vs. Sponsor Five Day Premiums
time the median sponsor
premium exceeded that of Strategic Sponsor
the median strategic
40%
39%
38%
37%
33%
33%
31%
29%
29%
28%
28%
have historically paid
25%
23%
22%
21%
21%
21%
higher multiples than
18%
17%
sponsors, they have been
13%
Source: FactSet
Note: Premium data includes all public pending / closed deals with U.S. targets. Additionally, transaction multiple data only includes transactions with EV / 8
LTM EBITDA multiples between 3x and 40x. All data presented is median data.
U.S. M&A Quarterly Insights
Source: FactSet
Note: Premium data includes all public pending / closed deals with U.S. targets. Additionally, transaction multiple data only includes transactions with EV / 9
LTM EBITDA multiples between 3x and 40x. All data presented is median data.
U.S. M&A Quarterly Insights
5%
5% 5%
4% 4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2% 2%
-- (0%)
(0%)
(1%)
(2%)
(3%)
(4%)
(5%)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD2018
Source: FactSet
Note: Premium data includes all public pending / closed deals with U.S. targets. Additionally, transaction multiple data only includes transactions with EV / 10
LTM EBITDA multiples between 3x and 40x. All data presented is median data.
U.S. M&A Quarterly Insights
Quartile Analysis
Source: FactSet
Note: Premium data includes all public pending / closed deals with U.S. targets. Additionally, transaction multiple data only includes transactions with EV /
LTM EBITDA multiples between 3x and 40x. All data presented is median data.
Bottom Quartile represents the 25% of transactions in a given year with the smallest EV / LTM EBITDA transaction multiple.
11
Top Quartile represents the 25% of transactions in a given year with the largest EV / LTM EBITDA transaction multiple.
U.S. M&A Quarterly Insights
Source: FactSet
Note: Premium data includes all public pending / closed deals with U.S. targets. Additionally, transaction multiple data only includes transactions with EV /
LTM EBITDA multiples between 3x and 40x. All data presented is median data.
Bottom Quartile represents the 25% of transactions in a given year with the smallest EV / LTM EBITDA transaction multiple.
12
Top Quartile represents the 25% of transactions in a given year with the largest EV / LTM EBITDA transaction multiple.
U.S. M&A Quarterly Insights
2,500+ 30 5
San Francisco Mumbai
Seattle Shanghai
Toronto Singapore
Vancouver Taipei professionals locations continents
Washington, D.C.
On its sale of a controlling
interest in
Subsidiary of
US$470 million
US$5.9 billion US$850 million Sale to
Sale to Acquisition of
Acquisition of Sale to
Brocade Communications Systems, Merchants’ Choice
Inc. Payment Solutions
Special Advisor
Financial Advisor to Board of Columbus Financial Advisor Financial Advisor Financial Advisor
November 2017 November 2017 October 2017 October 2017 August 2017
1. Bloomberg, completed deals where an acquirer or target is located in North America. Market data as of August 01, 2018.
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U.S. M&A Quarterly Insights
Contacts
Lyle Wilpon Seth Prostic Rob Stewart Eric Nicholson Geoff Barsky
Managing Director Managing Director Managing Director Managing Director Managing Director
Head of Global Advisory Co-Head of U.S. Co-Head of U.S. Head of Middle Market Head of Canadian &
New York, NY Mergers & Acquisitions Mergers & Acquisitions Mergers & Acquisitions International M&A
Tel.: (212) 702-1738 Chicago, IL New York, NY Minneapolis, MN Toronto, ON
lyle.wilpon@bmo.com Tel.: (312) 293-8365 Tel.: (212) 702-1131 Tel.: (612) 904-5710 Tel.: (416) 359-5660
seth.prostic@bmo.com robertb.stewart@bmo.com eric.nicholson@bmo.com geoff.barsky@bmo.com
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