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Extending the Concepts and Skills

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Consider the random experiment of tossing a coin once. There are two possible outcomes for phone to post a question
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a. Repeat the random experiment five times—that is, toss a coin five times—and record the
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4 Elementary Sociology in Introduction

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Chapter 5, Problem 35E Bookmark Show all steps: ON
b. Based on your five tosses, what estimate would you give for the probability of a head when
this coin is tossed once? Explain your answer.
c. Now toss the coin five more times and continue recording in the table so that you now have
entries for tosses 1–10. Based on your 10 tosses, what estimate would you give for the
probability of a head when this coin is tossed once? Explain your answer.
d. Now toss the coin 10 more times and continue recording in the table so that you now have
entries for tosses 1–20. Based on your 20 tosses, what estimate would you give for the
probability of a head when this coin is tossed once? Explain your answer.
e. In view of your results in parts (b)–(d), explain why the frequentist interpretation cannot be
used as the definition of probability.
Odds. Closely related to probabilities are odds. Newspapers, magazines, and other popular
publications often express likelihood in terms of odds instead of probabilities, and odds are used
much more than probabilities in gambling contexts. If the probability that an event occurs is p, the
odds that the event occurs are p to 1 − p. This fact is also expressed by saying that the odds are
p to 1 − p in favor of the event or that the odds are 1 − p to p against the event. Conversely, if the
odds in favor of an event are a to b(or, equivalently, the odds against it are b to a), the probability
the event occurs is a/(a+ b). For example, if an event has probability 0.75 of occurring, the odds
that the event occurs are 0.75 to 0.25, or 3 to 1; if the odds against an event are 3 to 2, the
probability that the event occurs is 2/(2 + 3), or 0.4. We examine odds in Exercises 1 to 5.
Exercises 1
Extending the Concepts and Skills
Roulette. An American roulette wheel contains 38 numbers, of which 18 are red, 18 are black,
and 2 are green. When the roulette wheel is spun, the ball is equally likely to land on any of the
38 numbers. For a bet on red, the house pays even odds (i.e., 1 to 1). What should the odds
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Exercises 2
Chapter
Cyber Affair. 5, Problem
As found 35E results of a survey by International
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Research revealed that roughly 75% of adult women believe that a romantic relationship over the
Internet while in an exclusive relationship in the real world is cheating. What are the odds against
randomly selecting an adult female Internet user who believes that having a “cyber affair” is
cheating?
Exercises 3
Belmont Stakes. The Belmont Stakes is the third leg, after the Kentucky Derby and Preakness
Stakes, of the Triple Crown of thoroughbred horseracing. The morning-line betting odds of the
two favorites, Orb and Revolutionary, for the 2013 Belmont Stakes were 7 to 2 (against) and 5 to
1 (against), respectively. Based on the morning-line betting odds, determine the probability that
the winner of the race would be
a. Orb.
b. Revolutionary.
Exercises 4
Cursing Your Computer. A study was conducted by the firm Coleman&Associates, Inc. to
determine who curses at their computer. The results, which appeared in USA TODAY, indicated
that 46% of people age 18–34 years have cursed at their computer. What are the odds against a
randomly selected 18- to 34-year-old having cursed at his or her computer?
Exercises 5
Lightning Casualties. An issue of Travel+ Leisure Golf magazine reported several facts about
lightning. Here are three of them.
• The odds of an individual being struck by lightning in a year in the United States are about
280,000 to 1 (against).
• The odds of an individual being struck by lightning in a year in Florida—the state with the
most golf courses—are about 80,000 to 1 (against).
• About 5% of all lightning fatalities occur on golf courses. Based on these data, answer the
following questions.
a. What is the probability of a person being struck by lightning in a year in the United States?
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b. What is the probability of a person being struck by lightning in a year in Florida? Express your
answer as a decimal rounded to seven decimal places.
c. If a person dies from being hit by lightning, what are the odds that the fatality did not occur on
a golf course?
Step-by-step solution
Step 1 of 5
(a)
Toss a coin five times and record the information as shown in following table:
Toss Outcome Number of heads Proportion of heads
1 H 4
2 H
3 H
4 T
5 H
Comment
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Step 2 of 5
(b)
When you tossed a coin 5 times, you got 4 heads or in tosses, were heads.
Therefore, based on five tosses, the probability of a head when this coin is tossed once is:
Comment
Step 3 of 5
(c)
Toss a coin five more times and record the information as shown in following table:
Toss Outcome
1 H
2 H
3 H
4 T
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6 T Chapter 5, Problem 35E Bookmark Show all steps: ON
7 T
8 H
9 T
10 H
Therefore, based on ten tosses, the probability of a head when this coin is tossed once is:
Comment
Step 4 of 5
(d)
Toss a coin ten more times and record the information as shown in following table:
Toss Outcome Toss Outcome
1 H 11 H
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2 H 12 H
3 H 13 T
4 T 14 T
5 H 15 H
6 T 16 T
7 T 17 T
8 H 18 T
9 T 19 H
10 H 20 H
Therefore, based on twenty tosses, the probability of a head when this coin is tossed once is:
Comment
Step 5 of 5
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(e)
The frequentist interpretation cannot be used as the definition of probability because probability
changes as number of tosses changes.
Comment
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Elementary Statistics Plus MyStatLab with Pearson Post a question

eText -- Access Card Package (9th Edition)

See this solution in the app Enter question

Extending the Concepts and Skills

4 Elementary Sociology in Introduction

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Extending the Concepts and Skills

Chapter 5, Problem 35E Bookmark Show all steps: ON

Toss Outcome Number of heads Proportion of heads

Chapter 5, Problem 35E Bookmark Show all steps: ON

6 T Chapter 5, Problem 35E Bookmark Show all steps: ON

Toss Outcome Toss Outcome

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Recommended solutions for you in Chapter 5

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