Faculty of Information Science & Technology

(FIST)

PSM 0325
Introduction to Probability and Statistics

Foundation in Life Science

Foundation in Information Technology

ONLINE NOTES

Topic 6
Hypothesis Testing

FIST, MULTIMEDIA UNIVERSITY (436821-T)

MELAKA CAMPUS, JALAN AYER KEROH LAMA, 75450 MELAKA, MALAYSIA.
URL: http://fist2.mmu.edu.my
PSM0325 Introduction to Probability and Statistics Topic 6

TOPIC 6
HYPOTHESIS TESTING

Reference:
Introduction to Probability and Statistics, Assliza Salim. et al.,Pearson. 2011

Objectives:
1. Be able to state the null and alternative hypothesis.
2. Be able to define Type 1 and Type 2 error.
3. Perform the test by using critical value approach and p-value approach.
4. Be able to differentiate all kind of tests.

Contents:
1. Null Hypothesis and Alternative Hypothesis
2. Rejection and Acceptance Region
3. Two Types of Errors
4. Types of Tests
5. Hypothesis Tests about a Population Mean : Large Samples

6.1 NULL HYPOTHESIS AND ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS

A statistical hypothesis, or just hypothesis, is a conjecture or claim (assertion) concerning
one or more population parameter.
Evidence from the sample that is inconsistent with the stated hypothesis leads to a rejection
of the hypothesis, whereas evidence supporting the hypothesis leads to its acceptance.

1. Null Hypothesis
-A null hypothesis is a claim (or statement) about a population parameter that is assumed
to be true until it is declared false
-the hypothesis we wish to test
-denoted by H0
2. Alternative Hypothesis
-An alternative hypothesis is a claim about a population parameter that will be true if the
null hypothesis is false.
-rejection of H0 leads to acceptance of an alternative hypothesis
-denoted by H1
Note : Reject H0  Accept H1
Accept H0  Reject H1

Logical Argument of Hypothesis

The rejection of Ho leads to the acceptance of an alternative hypothesis, Ha.
A test of hypothesis is a method of using sample data to decide whether Ho should be
rejected.
A null hypothesis concerning a population parameter will always be stated so as to
specify an exact value of the parameter, whereas the alternative hypothesis allows
for the possibility of several values.

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Hence, if the null hypothesis Ho: p=0.5 for a binomial population, the alternative
hypothesis Ha would be one of the following:
p 0.5 , p 0.5 , p 0.5

How to define hypothesis?

The Ho always carries the equal sign (refer to the column of Ho).
If the claim suggest a simple direction such as more than, less than, superior to,
inferior to, and so on, then Ha will be stated using the inequality symbol (< or >)
corresponding to the suggested direction.
If the claim suggest a compound direction (equality as well as direction) such as at
least, equal to or greater, at most, no more than, and so on, then this entire compound
direction (≤ or ≥) is expressed as Ho, but using only the equality sign, and H1 is given
by the opposite direction.
If no direction whatsoever is suggested by the claim, then H1 is stated using the not
equal symbol, .

In summary:
Null Hypothesis: Ho, Sign for , , all take "", then
Alternative hypothesis: H1 Sign for , , chosen respectively

6.2 TWO TYPES OF ERRORS

1. Type I Error
- Rejection of a null hypothesis when it is true is called a Type I error
- The value of  represents the probability of committing this type of error
 = P(H0 is rejected  H0 is true)
- The value of  represents the significance level of the test.

2. Type II Error
- Acceptance of a null hypothesis when it is false is called a Type II error
- The value of  represents the probability of committing a Type II error
 = P(H0 is not rejected  H0 is false)
- The value of 1- is called the power of the test, it represents the probability of not
making a Type II error

Possible Situations for Testing a Statistical Hypothesis

Actual Situation
H0 is true H0 is false
Accept H0 Correct decision Type II error or  error
Decision
Reject H0 Type I error or  error Correct decision

6.3 TYPES OF TEST

1. Two-tailed test

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A two-tailed test looks for any change or difference in the parameter. It has rejection
region in both tails.
H 0 :   1 H 1 :   1

2. One-tailed test
A one-tailed test looks for a definite decrease or a definite increase in the parameter. It
has only one rejection region either or on the left (left-tailed test) or on the right (right-
tailed test), respectively.

In general, when performing a significance test it is useful to follow a set procedure:

1. State the null hypothesis (H0) and the alternative hypothesis (H1).
2. Consider the appropriate distribution given by the null hypothesis.
3. Decide the types of test and determine the critical value(s) and rejection region.
4. Calculate the value of test statistic.
5. Make a decision.
If the value of the test statistic lies in the rejection region, reject H0.
If the value of the test statistic lies in the acceptance region, accept H0.

6.4 REJECTION AND ACCEPTANCE REGION

Critical value/critical point - one or two values that divide the whole region under the
sampling distribution of a sample statistic into rejection/critical region and acceptance
region. Critical region depends on the type and the level of the test chosen (significant
level).

Significance Level
Denoted by . The most usual level chosen is the 5% level, but often a 1% or a 10% level
is chosen. These mean that the critical region is 0.01, 0.025, or 0.05, respectively.

6.5 HYPOTHESIS TESTS ABOUT A POPULATION MEAN : LARGE SAMPLES

Always use normal distribution to do the test.

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H 0 :   1 H1 :   1
H1 :   1
H1 :   1

Test Statistic

In tests of hypothesis about  for large samples, the random variable

x x  s
z or z where  x  and s x 
x sx n n

is called the test statistic. The test statistic can be defined as a rule or criterion that is used
to make the decision whether or not to reject the null hypothesis.

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PSM0325 Introduction to Probability and Statistics Topic 6

Example 1
A random sample of 100 recorded deaths in the United States during the past years
showed an average life span of 71.8 years. Assuming a population standard deviation of
8.9 years, does this seem to indicate that the mean life span today is greater than 70
years? Use a 0.05 level of significance.

Solution
1. H0 :  = 70 years.
H1 :   70 years.
x
2. Critical region: z > 1.645, where z  .
/ n
71.8  70
3. x  71.8 years,   8.9 years, and z   2.02.
8.9 / 100
4. Decision: Reject H0 and conclude that the mean life span today is greater than 70
years.

or by using p-value approach,

we have p = P(Z>2.02) = 0.0217.

As a result, the evidence in favor of H 1 is even stronger than that suggested by a 0.05
level of significance.

Example 2
A manufacturer of sports equipment has developed a new synthetic fishing line that he
claims has a man breaking strength of 8 kilograms with a standard deviation of 0.5
kilogram. Test the hypothesis that  = 8 kilograms against the alternative that  8
kilograms if a random sample of 50 lines is tested and found to have a mean breaking
strength of 7.8 kilograms. Use a 0.01 level of significance.

Solution
1. H0 :  =8 kilograms.
H1 :   8 kilograms.
x 
2. Critical region: z < -2.575 and z >2.575, where z  .
/ n
7.8  8
3. x  7.8 ki log rams, n  50, and hence z   2.83.
0.5 / 50
4. Decision: Reject H 0 and conclude that the average breaking strength is not equal to 8
but is, in fact, less than 8 kilograms.

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