IET 104 – Industrial Management Seminars

Fall 2020 – Assessment 5

Student Name: ‫حسين علي‬ Section:

Student ID: Date:
Grade: /100

Question 1: (35 points)

State whether the following statements are true or false. If the statement is false, write
the correct answer:

1. Forecasting is a prediction rather than a reality to mislead an organization into

implementing the proper decisions.

Answer:
False as Forecasting is a sub-discipline of prediction in which we are making
predictions about the future, on the basis of time-series data

2. Short range forecast generally is used for decision making in a period of about
three months, and the decision taken are related to job scheduling, assignments and
production levels.

Answer: true

3. Associate forecasting considers several dependent and independent variables to

build a model and then forecast an item of interest.

Answer: true

4. Qualitative Methods are more accurate, for they involve analyzing numeric data
and taking decisions based on previous numbers and statistics.

Answer: false , Qualitative forecasting is an estimation methodology that uses

expert judgment, rather than numerical analysis

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 5. Quantitate data is used in decision making especially for companies and
organization that are new in the market.

Answer: true

Question 2: (65 points)

The sales and profit of a clothing organization are represented in the table below. This
given data is used in forecasting and mainly decision making, accordingly:

Sales , x ( in Profits, y (in

millions of millions of
dollars) dollars)
1.5 0.1
3.5 0.12
5.4 0.13
6.5 0.171
8 0.21
10 0.27
11 0.235
12 0.245
15 0.281
16 0.3
16.5 0.356
21 0.44

1. Create a Scatter Plot to represent the sales and profits of the organization. Provide

proper units and labeling of the graph.

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 Sales , x Profits, y
( in (in Profits, y (in millions of dollars)
millions millions
0.5
of of

profits (in millions of dollars)

0.45
dollars) dollars) 0.4 y = 0.0167x + 0.0621
1.5 0.1 0.35
3.5 0.12 0.3
5.4 0.13 0.25
0.2
6.5 0.171
0.15
8 0.21 0.1
10 0.27 0.05
11 0.235 0
0 5 10 15 20 25
12 0.245
sales in millions of dollars
15 0.281
16 0.3
16.5 0.356
21 0.44

2. Find the regression equation: use a table to show all your work.

Sales , Profits,
x ( in y (in
summatio sum sum
million million x^2 y^2 sum X sum Y
n XY X^2 Y^2
s of s of
dollars) dollars)
1709.1 0.7920
1.5 0.1 2.25 0.01 36.4175 126.4 2.858
6 9
3.5 0.12 12.25 0.0144          
5.4 0.13 29.16 0.0169          
0.0292
6.5 0.171 42.25          
4
8 0.21 64 0.0441          
10 0.27 100 0.0729          
0.0552
11 0.235 121          
3
12 0.245 144 0.0600          

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 3
0.0789
15 0.281 225          
6
16 0.3 256 0.09          
0.1267
16.5 0.356 272.25          
4
21 0.44 441 0.1936          

Y=0.0168X+0.0621

3. Estimate the profit of the organization if the sales reach a net worth of $ 23million.

When X =23 Y=0.0168*23+0.0621=0.446

4. Estimate the sales of the organization if the profit made is $ 1.4million.

At Y= 1.4 X=80.11

5. State three advantages of forecasting within an organization.

1.it provides the business with valuable information.

2. It can decrease costs.

3.will increase the efficiency of the future process.

6. What type of forecasting is being done within this organization? Explain why.

Demand forecasts (sales forecasts) as it deal with the company's products and estimate

consumer demand.

Note: Show all calculations and formulas used.

Question 3: Bonus Question (5 points)

Clearly explain what the following statement related to forecasting means.

“Forecasts are seldom perfect”

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 The future is impossible to foresee. Your predictions will never be spot on, even though
you have a fantastic mechanism in place and forecasting experts on your payroll. There is
simply a high degree of uncertainty in certain goods and markets. And, in fact, there are just
an infinite number of variables that affect demand.

Note:
Please do not Copy and Paste from any source – Try to answer in your own words.
Goodluck!

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