Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Mar-20
Happy Hour Co — MODEL
Assumptions
Circular switch
On / off 1
Key assumptions
EV ($m) 413.0
Happy Hour Co - 5 Year plan
5 Year Plan
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Revenue 1,149 1,256 1,354 1,447 1,443
YoY growth % 9.3% 7.8% 6.9% -0.3%
GP $ 583 634 689 737 753
GM% 50.7% 50.5% 50.9% 50.9% 52.2%
Opex (523) (580) (622) (662) (678)
Operating profit 60 54 67 75 75
Operating margin % 5.2% 4.3% 4.9% 5.2% 5.2%
Interest and Amortisation (5) (6) (6) (6) (6)
Group PBT (Underlying) 55 48 61 68 69
March YE ($mm) 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Total revenue 939.7 1,004.9 1,021.5 1,095.0 1,135.1 1,138.6 1,149.0 1,256.0 1,354.0 1,147.0 1,443.0 1,471.9 1,486.6 1,501.4 1,516.5 1,531.6 1,546.9
Management case 1,149.0 1,256.0 1,354.0 1,147.0 1,443.0
% forecast growth 0.9% 9.3% 7.8% (15.3%) 25.8% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
EBITDA 101.1 109.9 114.6 108.7 109.5 98.2 94.1 92.6 111.8 124.4 127.6 131.0 132.3 133.6 135.0 136.3 139.2
Management case 94.1 92.6 111.8 124.4 127.6
% growth n.a. 8.7% 4.3% (5.1%) 0.7% (10.3%) (4.1%) (1.6%) 20.7% 11.3% 2.6% 2.7% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.1%
% forecast margin 8.2% 7.4% 8.3% 10.8% 8.8% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 9.0%
Depreciation and amortisation (23.3) (25.3) (30.1) (31.6) (34.9) (36.0) (36.0) (40.4) (47.3) (51.9) (54.9) (53.5) (51.0) (49.5) (48.5) (47.5) (47.5)
% growth n.a. 8.6% 19.0% 5.0% 10.4% 3.2% 0.0% 12.2% 17.1% 9.7% 5.8% (2.6%) (4.7%) (2.9%) (2.0%) (2.1%) 0.0%
% capex 76.6% 67.5% 74.7% 87.5% 93.6% 116.1% 100.0% 79.2% 94.6% 103.8% 109.8% 107.0% 102.0% 99.0% 97.0% 95.0% 95.0%
% margin 2.5% 2.5% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% 3.5% 4.5% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1%
EBIT 77.8 84.6 84.5 77.1 74.6 62.2 58.1 52.2 64.5 72.5 72.7 77.5 81.3 84.1 86.5 88.8 91.7
% growth n.a. 8.7% (0.1%) (8.8%) (3.2%) (16.6%) (6.5%) (10.2%) 23.5% 12.4% 0.2% 6.6% 4.9% 3.5% 2.8% 2.7% 3.3%
% margin 8.3% 8.4% 8.3% 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% 5.1% 4.2% 4.8% 6.3% 5.0% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% 5.9%
% tax rate 19.0% 19.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%
x Net income 55.5 65.8 64.9 59.5 58.4 48.3 44.5 39.9 50.2 56.8 57.0
% growth n.a. 18.6% (1.4%) (8.3%) (1.8%) (17.3%) (7.9%) (10.3%) 25.9% 13.2% 0.3%
% margin 5.9% 6.5% 6.4% 5.4% 5.1% 4.2% 3.9% 3.2% 3.7% 5.0% 3.9%
Cashflow statement
Capex (30.4) (37.5) (40.3) (36.1) (37.3) (31.0) (36.0) (51.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0)
% growth n.a. 23.4% 7.5% (10.4%) 3.3% (16.9%) 16.1% 41.7% (2.0%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
% sales 3.2% 3.7% 3.9% 3.3% 3.3% 2.7% 3.1% 4.1% 3.7% 4.4% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2%
% Cash conversion 69.9% 65.9% 64.8% 66.8% 65.9% 68.4% 61.8% 44.9% 55.3% 59.8% 60.8% 61.8% 62.2% 62.6% 63.0% 63.3% 64.1%
Change in Working Capital (5.3) 25.1 (11.2) (16.3) (12.6) (10.4) 6.0 16.0 15.0 11.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% growth n.a. (573.6%) (144.6%) 45.5% (22.7%) (17.5%) (157.7%) 166.7% (6.3%) (26.7%) (63.6%) (100.0%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% sales (0.6%) 2.5% (1.1%) (1.5%) (1.1%) (0.9%) 0.5% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Other Cashflows (1.5) 0.7 0.0 0.0 (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0)
% growth n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (149.3%) (100.0%) n.a. n.a. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
% sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% (0.1%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 (18.0) (6.8) 25.1 (4.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% growth n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (62.5%) (472.3%) (119.4%) (100.0%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.5% (2.2%) 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Summary financials
March Y/E 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Revenue 940 1,005 1,022 1,095 1,135 1,139 1,149 1,256 1,354 1,147 1,443 1,472 1,487 1,501 1,516 1,532 1,547
% growth n.a. 6.9% 1.7% 7.2% 3.7% 0.3% 0.9% 9.3% 7.8% (15.3%) 25.8% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
EBITDA 101 110 115 109 110 98 94 93 112 124 128 131 132 134 135 136 139
% growth n.a. 8.7% 4.3% (5.1%) 0.7% (10.3%) (4.1%) (1.6%) 20.7% 11.3% 2.6% 2.7% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.1%
% margin 10.8% 10.9% 11.2% 9.9% 9.6% 8.6% 8.2% 7.4% 8.3% 10.8% 8.8% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 9.0%
D&A (23) (25) (30) (32) (35) (36) (36) (40) (47) (52) (55) (54) (51) (50) (49) (48) (48)
% of revenue (2.5%) (2.5%) (2.9%) (2.9%) (3.1%) (3.2%) (3.1%) (3.2%) (3.5%) (4.5%) (3.8%) (3.6%) (3.4%) (3.3%) (3.2%) (3.1%) (3.1%)
% of capex 76.6% 67.5% 74.7% 87.5% 93.6% 116.1% 100.0% 79.2% 94.6% 103.8% 109.8% 107.0% 102.0% 99.0% 97.0% 95.0% 95.0%
EBIT 78 85 85 77 75 62 58 52 64 72 73 77 81 84 86 89 92
% growth n.a. 8.7% (0.1%) (8.8%) (3.2%) (16.6%) (6.5%) (10.2%) 23.5% 12.4% 0.2% 6.6% 4.9% 3.5% 2.8% 2.7% 3.3%
% margin 8.3% 8.4% 8.3% 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% 5.1% 4.2% 4.8% 6.3% 5.0% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% 5.9%
EBITDA 101 110 115 109 110 98 94 93 112 124 128 131 132 134 135 136 139
Capex (30) (38) (40) (36) (37) (31) (36) (51) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50)
% revenue 3.2% 3.7% 3.9% 3.3% 3.3% 2.7% 3.1% 4.1% 3.7% 4.4% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2%
Change in NWC (5) 25 (11) (16) (13) (10) 6 16 15 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
% revenue (0.6%) 2.5% (1.1%) (1.5%) (1.1%) (0.9%) 0.5% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Other Cashflows 0 0 0 0 (2) 1 0 0 (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5)
% revenue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% (0.1%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Exceptional items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (18) (7) 25 (5) 0 0 0 0 0 0
% revenue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.5% (2.2%) 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DCF
Key assumptions
Transaction date 31-Mar-20
Next financial YE 31-Mar-21
Perpetuity growth rate 0.5% <<< Put down the assumptions after discussing with your senior
TV exit EBITDA multiple 8.5x
WACC used for sensitivity analy 8.5%
Below fill in the blanks by linking from the Financials tab update formula, growth is expressed vs previous year and margin is vs sales update as noted
DCF FCF Calculation
Stub period (731) (366) 0 365 730 1,095 1,461 1,826 2,191 2,556 2,922 3,287 3,652
Stub factor 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Actuals Estimates
March YE ($mm) 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Revenue 1,095.0 1,135.1 1,138.6 1,149.0 1,256.0 1,354.0 1,147.0 1,443.0 1,471.9 1,486.6 1,501.4 1,516.5 1,531.6 1,546.9
% growth 3.7% 0.3% 0.9% 9.3% 7.8% (15.3%) 25.8% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
EBITDA 108.7 109.5 98.2 94.1 92.6 111.8 124.4 127.6 131.0 132.3 133.6 135.0 136.3 139.2
% margin 9.9% 9.6% 8.6% 8.2% 7.4% 8.3% 10.8% 8.8% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 9.0%
% growth 0.7% (10.3%) (4.1%) (1.6%) 20.7% 11.3% 2.6% 2.7% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.1%
D&A (31.6) (34.9) (36.0) (36.0) (40.4) (47.3) (51.9) (54.9) (53.5) (51.0) (49.5) (48.5) (47.5) (47.5)
% sales 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% 3.5% 4.5% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1%
% of capex 87.5%
EBIT 77.1 74.6 62.2 58.1 52.2 64.5 72.5 72.7 77.5 81.3 84.1 86.5 88.8 91.7
% margin 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% 5.1% 4.2% 4.8% 6.3% 5.0% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% 5.9%
% growth (3.2%) (16.6%) (6.5%) (10.2%) 23.5% 12.4% 0.2% 6.6% 4.9% 3.5% 2.8% 2.7% 3.3%
Tax (11.0) (8.9) (11.0) (12.3) (12.4) (13.2) (12.0) (12.0) (12.0) (12.0) (12.0) << EBIT*tax rate
% tax rate 19.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%
EBIAT 47.1 43.3 53.5 60.2 60.3 64.3 69.3 72.1 74.5 76.8 79.7 << EBIT+tax
% margin 4.1% 3.5% 4.0% 5.2% 4.2% 4.4% 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2%
% growth (8.0%) 23.5% 12.4% 0.2% 6.6% 7.7% 4.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.8%
D&A 36.0 40.4 47.3 51.9 54.9 53.5 51.0 49.5 48.5 47.5 47.5
Capex (36.1) (37.3) (31.0) (36.0) (51.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0)
% sales 3.3% 3.3% 2.7% 3.1% 4.1% 3.7% 4.4% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2%
% D&A 100.0% 126.2% 105.7% 96.3% 91.1% 93.5% 98.0% 101.0% 103.1% 105.3% 105.3%
Change in working capital (16.3) (12.6) (10.4) 6.0 16.0 15.0 11.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% sales 1.5% 1.1% 0.9% (0.5%) (1.3%) (1.1%) (1.0%) (0.3%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Other Cashflows 0.0 (1.5) 0.7 0.0 0.0 (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0)
% sales 0.0% (0.1%) 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% (0.4%) (0.4%) (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.3%)
Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (18.0) (6.8) 25.1 (4.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (1.4%) (0.5%) 2.2% (0.3%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FCF 53.1 30.7 54.1 93.2 59.3 62.8 65.3 66.6 68.0 69.3 72.2 <<add EBIT+D&A+Capex(-ve)+Change in WC (-ve)+other cashflow
Stub period (53.1) (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
FCF for discounting 0.0 30.7 54.1 93.2 59.3 62.8 65.3 66.6 68.0 69.3 72.2
Days to cashflow 0 365 731 1,096 1,461 1,826 2,192 2,557 2,922 3,287 3,653
Discount factor 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4
Sensitivity analysis
Spread rates and step-up
Perpetuity growth 0.5% Perptuity growth rate step-up 0.25% EBITDA multiple 8.5x EBITDA multiple step-up 0.5x
WACC 8.5% WACC step-up 0.50% WACC 8.5% WACC step-up 0.5%
Summary financials
March YE ($mm) 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
EBITDA 108.7 109.5 98.2 94.1 92.6 111.8 124.4 127.6 131.0 132.3 133.6 135.0 136.3 139.2
% margin 9.9% 9.6% 8.6% 8.2% 7.4% 8.3% 10.8% 8.8% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 9.0%
D&A 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.0 40.4 47.3 51.9 54.9 53.5 51.0 49.5 48.5 47.5 47.5
% of capex 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 79.2% 94.6% 103.8% 109.8% 107.0% 102.0% 99.0% 97.0% 95.0% 95.0%
EBIT 77.1 74.6 62.2 58.1 52.2 64.5 72.5 72.7 77.5 81.3 84.1 86.5 88.8 91.7
% margin 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% 5.1% 4.2% 4.8% 6.3% 5.0% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% 5.9%
Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 (11.0) (8.9) (11.0) (12.3) (12.4) (13.2) (12.0) (12.0) (12.0) (12.0) (12.0)
Tax rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%
EBIAT 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.1 43.3 53.5 60.2 60.3 64.3 69.3 72.1 74.5 76.8 79.7
+D&A 31.6 34.9 36.0 36.0 40.4 47.3 51.9 54.9 53.5 51.0 49.5 48.5 47.5 47.5
+ Maintenance capex (36.1) (37.3) (31.0) (36.0) (51.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0)
+Change in working capital (16.3) (12.6) (10.4) 6.0 16.0 15.0 11.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
+ Exceptional cash flows 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (18.0) (6.8) 25.1 (4.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
+ Other cash flows 0.0 (1.5) 0.7 0.0 0.0 (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0)
FCF (20.8) (16.5) (4.7) 53.1 30.7 54.1 93.2 59.3 62.8 65.3 66.6 68.0 69.3 72.2
DCF output
% growth 9.3%
EBITDA 94 93
% growth (1.6%)
% of capex 79.2%
EBIT 58 52
Capex (51)
% of revenue 4.1%
Change in NWC 16
Other Cashflows 0
% of revenue 0.0%
% of revenue 1.4%
1
Cashflow Timing (Years to Discount)
0.92
Discount Factor
Discounted DCF cashflows 28
64 72 73 77 81 84 86
15 11 4 0 0 0 0
(7) 25 (5) 0 0 0 0
54 93 59 63 63 64 65
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
46 73 43 42 39 36 34
sitising firm value ($m) and implied offer price to WACC and TGR
7.5% 898 / 409c 915 / 417c 934 / 427c 953 / 437c 975 / 447c
8.0% 838 / 379c 853 / 386c 868 / 394c 885 / 402c 903 / 411c
8.5% 786 / 352c 798 / 359c 811 / 365c 825 / 372c 840 / 380c
9.0% 739 / 329c 750 / 334c 761 / 340c 773 / 346c 786 / 352c
9.5% 698 / 308c 707 / 313c 717 / 318c 727 / 323c 737 / 328c
9 10 TV
2029E 2030E
1,532 1,547
1.0% 1.0%
136 139
8.9% 9.0%
1.0% 2.1%
(48) (48)
3.1% 3.1%
95.0% 95.0%
89 92
5.8% 5.9%
(15) (16)
17.0% 17.0%
(50) (50)
3.3% 3.2%
0 0
(5) (5)
0.3% 0.3%
0 0
0.0% 0.0%
66 69 862
9 10
0.48 0.44
32 30 381