SPE 143282

Bayesian Network Analysis as a Tool for Efficient EOR Screening

M.M.Zerafat1, Sh. Ayatollahi ∗1, N. Mehranbod2, D. Barzegari2
1
EOR Research Center, School of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
2
School of Petroleum and Chemical Engineering, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
shahab@shirazu.ac.ir

Copyright 2011, Society of Petroleum Engineers

This paper was prepared for presentation at the SPE Enhanced Oil Recovery Conference held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 19–21 July 2011.

This paper was selected for presentation by an SPE program committee following review of information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents of the paper have not been
reviewed by the Society of Petroleum Engineers and are subject to correction by the author(s). The material does not necessarily reflect any position of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, its
officers, or members. Electronic reproduction, distribution, or storage of any part of this paper without the written consent of the Society of Petroleum Engineers is prohibited. Permission to
reproduce in print is restricted to an abstract of not more than 300 words; illustrations may not be copied. The abstract must contain conspicuous acknowledgment of SPE copyright.

Abstract. The main tool for screening of EOR techniques is generally based on the criteria presented in a variety of tables
and graphs given in the literature. These data are derived from the basic theory of multiphase fluid flow through porous
media, reservoir simulation, laboratory experiments and existing field-scale experiences. The purpose of this study is to
develop a procedure capable of combining the data extracted from different sources ranging from worldwide field
experiences to the existing tables into a unified expert system. This expert system is based on Bayesian network analysis in
order to sort the proper EOR techniques for further assessment by economical and environmental criteria.

A data bank has been gathered from worldwide EOR/IOR techniques and analyzed using data mining procedure which is
then combined with extracted data from previously published screening tables. Bayesian network quantitative learning
technique was applied to different data combinations from the data bank to train the network which is to serve as the expert
system.

The produced expert system is also applied to the gathered data pertaining to 10 Iranian southwest reservoirs. The results
show that, CO2 flooding can be the most promising among various EOR techniques, which is in agreement with a previous
work. According to this study, considering reservoir characteristics, and excluding the economic limitations, CO2 flooding is
considered as the most efficient EOR method for Iranian carbonate reservoirs under study.

The results show that Bayesian Belief network analysis can be successful in the prediction of proper EOR technique by
providing sufficient Data to train the network.

1. Introduction
The problem of EOR Screening for the purpose of selection and implementation of proper EOR techniques for a specific
reservoir with special oil and rock properties is addressed in several papers as a guide for petroleum engineers. One of the
first studies on EOR screening can be considered as the publication by Taber et al. (Taber & Martin, 1983), which uses the
available data on screening to summarize EOR screening criteria in a single table and also presents EOR spectrum by simple

∗
Corresponding Author, P.O. Box 71345-1719 Shiraz, Iran
shahab@shirazu.ac.ir
2 SPE 143282

graphical techniques. Guerillot (Guerillot, 1983), utilized artificial intelligence for the selection of proper EOR techniques.
This developed expert system was able to propose reasonable descriptions for the selection of each EOR technique, based on
fuzzy logic. The first computer based program was proposed by Parkinson et.al (Parkinson et.al, 1994), resulted in the
technical selection of a few feasible techniques in the first place for further economical investigations. Taber et al. (Taber et
al., 1997), proposed some criteria for most EOR techniques based on reservoir Data through the investigation of EOR
mechanisms. Alvarado et.al (Alvarado et.al, 2002), collected a series of data on EOR screening projects all around the world
and made use of space reduction techniques to show the existing correlations in parameter variations.
Nowadays, with the aid of computers, artificial intelligence (AI) has become an inseparable part of engineering predictions
and EOR screening has also been imparted this gift. Although the application of Artificial Intelligence techniques for
chemical engineering and oil industry problems dates back to a couple of decades, few steps have been taken for the
introduction of Bayesian Belief Networks in these fields. Various AI techniques have been examined for this purpose a few
of which can be summarized as follows: The design of artificial neural networks (ANN) by Genetic Algorithm (GA) in the
estimation of reservoir permeability is one of the AI applications in oil industry (Morooka et al., 2001). The application of
GA for a full description of reservoir through estimation of other parameters such as porosity and recovery rate can be
counted as another application in this field (Romero et al., 2001). The application of neural networks in the exploration and
production is also examined in oil industry. The reservoir petro and geo-physical Data can be fed to ANN for characterization
of fracture types and the estimation of pressure distribution in the reservoir (Greffioz et al., 1993). ANN has also been used in
the determination of petroleum physical properties through the correlation of these parameters to other known variables such
as temperature, pressure and natural boiling point (Aminzadeh, 2005).
A series of publications by Shahab Mohaghegh (Mohaghegh et al., 2001, 2005; Rolon & Mohaghegh, 2009) investigates the
application of several AI techniques in oil and gas reservoir characterization and reservoir log generation. Bayesian Network
analysis which is commonly used in various fields for risk assessment (Biedermann et al., 2005) is also applied to a few
petroleum industry problems (Carter et al., 2006). This technique has been applied successfully to predict asphaltene
precipitation by using Data sources measured in laboratory and also gathered from literature (Sayyad Amin et al., 2010).

2. Bayesian Network Analysis

The theory of Bayesian Belief Networks is based on the theory of probability which constructs the fittest framework for
assessment in fields accompanied with indeterminacy. A Bayesian network can behave like human beings when confronting
uncertainty and also provides a mathematical foundation to predict the likelihood of a target occurrence in future trials, from
given occurrences in prior trials. The mere way to quantify a situation with an uncertain outcome is through determining its
probability according to Bayesian logic. This Network consists of a series of variables and the relationships among them,
each of which can be represented as a node in the network and possesses several states with no domains in common. Every
directional link between two nodes shows the direct influence of one (parent) on another (child). This influence is quantified
through a conditional probability distribution function correlating the states of each node with the states of its parents.
The combination of variables and directional links forms a directional acyclic network (Fig.1). There exists a probability
distribution accompanied with every child node (conditional probability) which depends on the probability distribution
related to its own parents.
SPE 143282 3

A B

E D

F G

Fig. 1 Example of an acyclic Bayesian Network

Our information of the system and verified data enables us to calculate the new probability distributions for the nodes, not
characterized in the network which is known as belief updating. The Bayes rule is the basis for updating process (Korb &
Nicholson, 2004).
Fig.1 represents a Bayesian Network for a joint probability distribution P (a, b, c, d , e, f , g ) . Node A , the root node, have no

parents with (marginal) probability distribution P (a ) , where the domain of a is the set of values that A takes on with non-
zero probability (prior probability).
A key advantage of Bayesian networks is their synthesized representation of probabilistic relationships. In fact, it is necessary
to consider only the known independencies among the variables in a domain, rather than specifying a complete joint
probability distribution. The independencies declared at modeling time are then used to infer beliefs for all variables in the
network (De Cristo et al., 2003)
The limitation of Bayesian method is its subjectivity, especially for the establishment of prior belief. A few possible
applications of Bayesian analysis can be amounted as: proposed risk assessment of nuclear waste disposal is calculated by
Bayesian network (Lee et al., 2005). Bayesian approach is also used for a flow-field modeling to determine the greatest
model uncertainty at the model boundaries (Abbaspour et al., 2000). Parameters estimation characterizing the hydrodynamic
behavior of aquifers is done by Bayesian method (Ferraresi et al., 1996). Probabilistic expert systems are developed to
produce a geographic distribution for the most probable sources of salinization by Bayesian belief networks methods
(Ghabayen et al., 2006).

3. Data Collection
In general, the Data available in the literature on EOR screening criteria fall into three main categories: (1) Laboratory tests
have been done to check the feasibility of specific EOR process for known reservoir with fluids and rocks available.
Experimental data available from these tests comprise the main core of Data usually used for EOR screening. (2) The second
category is comprised of the Data produced from the simulation of oil reservoirs under EOR processes mostly by using
commercial reservoir simulation software. (3) However, the most reliable category of information would be the specifications
of reservoirs under successful EOR projects, whose technical and economical capabilities are proved practically. This last
category can be considered the most reliable adequate information especially in AI techniques as it takes into account the
whole essential criteria. Several EOR screening criteria in the form of tables have been proposed in the literature considering
rock and fluid properties of oil reservoirs. The first table of this type is introduced by Taber et.al (Taber et. al. 1988), which
4 SPE 143282

suggests a special EOR technique in every given parameter range. Also, Taber has modified his table (Taber et. al. 1997) by
using new data series and considering economical criteria in the investigations.
Some EOR processes such as miscible CO2 flooding have found special attention and special tables are produced for them by
some researchers (Klins 1984, Carcoana 1982). In another work (Picha, 2007) represents an updated screening criteria table
for four EOR methods, considering the importance of CO2 flooding techniques and also the enhanced heavy oil production in
recent years.
Field Data used in this study is mostly extracted from a series of worldwide EOR surveys on field-scale successful EOR
projects around the world (Worldwide EOR Survey, Oil & Gas J., 1994-2006). The gathered data are processed with data
mining procedures for the selection of the most proper series in order to yield the best results in training process.
Thorough investigation of gathered data proves the indeterminacy and similarities existent in various experiments which
makes it necessary the utilization of an AI technique capable of decision making accompanied with probability and giving
spectral answers rather than one-to-one conformity; the abilities inherent in Bayesian Analysis.

3.1 Effect of Reservoir Parameters on EOR Efficiency

EOR process refers to techniques used to increase the oil recovery efficiency from oil reservoirs after primary and secondary
oil recovery by using injection fluids such as different types of gases at different pressures or temperatures and various
solvents. The injection may range from a few percents of reservoir volume to several pore volumes. In the cases involving an
expensive injection, a limited amount of the fluid should be consumed due to economical considerations. If a large amount of
injection fluid is required, the options will be limited to water and low price gases of avail.
Basically, there are three mechanisms that control the efficiency of EOR processes and increase oil recovery factor rather
than pure gas or water injection processes. These mechanisms are solvent extraction through miscibility, reducing interfacial
tension and mobility control by decreasing oil viscosity or increasing water viscosity (Taber et. al. 1997). There are several
EOR techniques which employ one or a combination of these mechanisms to enhance oil recovery. These techniques can be
classified as follows based on the mechanisms considered above:
1. Miscible Gas Flooding;
a) Miscible alcohol flooding
b) Miscible hydrocarbon flooding
c) Miscible CO2 flooding

2. Chemical Flooding;
a) Surfactant flooding
b) Alkaline flooding
c) ASP flooding (Various Configurations)
d) Polymer flooding

3. Thermal Oil Recovery;

a) Continuous steam injection
b) Cyclic steam injection
c) Hot water injection
d) In-situ combustion
e) SAGD
f) VAPEX
SPE 143282 5

4. New Methods;
a) Microbial Flooding

There are several general parameters which influence the selection of a special EOR process for a certain reservoir with
unique rock and fluid properties. Also, there are some parameters only relevant to a particular EOR technique. Generally, the
whole influential parameters can be categorized into two major categories. The first category is the reservoir properties and
the second properties related to the reservoir fluid. General properties of the reservoir can be counted as porosity,
permeability, reservoir formation type, reservoir depth, etc. On the other hand, oil density and viscosity are two examples of
fluid properties. In addition, there are some unique properties in the investigation of particular EOR techniques which are
presented in the next sections. Here, some important properties and their effect on various oil recovery processes are
described.

3.1.1 Porosity
Reservoir porosity accompanied by reservoir volume will determine the amount of oil in place. In a homogenous reservoir
with fairly connected pores, the permeability of the reservoir rock is increased by increasing the porosity. In some cases such
as polymer flooding, the porosity should be more than a definite value in order to be suitable for polymer permeation through
the pore network. Fig. 2 presents the variations of porosity in different reservoirs under successful EOR production around
the world. These EOR techniques are considered to be thermal techniques (including steam flooding, hot water injection and
in situ combustion), miscible flooding (CO2 and hydrocarbon flooding) and immiscible flooding (CO2 and Nitrogen
injection), polymer injection and microbial flooding respectively from left to right. As it is shown in Fig. 2 the average
porosity is 22 % and porosity ranges from 1 % and 60 %. It is obvious that thermal EOR techniques entail comparatively
higher porosities.

Fig. 2 The porosities of reservoirs under successful EOR processes in different parts of the world
6 SPE 143282

3.1.2 Permeability
Increasing the rock permeability which results in decreasing the injection pressure leads to the improvement of production
efficiency. There is a determined range for permeability that polymer molecules are blocked and can't permeate through the
reservoir. The selection of an appropriate molecular weight distribution for polymer would decrease such a limitation. On the
other hand, in some cases selective plugging using especial materials such as polymers are used to increase the possibility of
oil production from un-swept zones. The disparity of reservoir permeability is shown in Fig 3. Although it seems there are
many oscillations in the permeability variation range, but the major part of data varies between 1 to 10000 mD with average
permeability as 870 mD.

Fig. 3 Permeabilities of reservoirs under successful EOR processes in different parts of the world

3.1.3 Reservoir formation type

Observed formation types in reservoirs are usually sandstone, limestone, dolomite, conglomerate, tripolite and
unconsolidated sand (Worldwide EOR Survey, Oil & Gas J., 1994-2006). The wettability of rocks and their pore structures
are very dependent on the formation type. As it was mentioned before, formation type may affect wettability or wettability
alteration during each production stage, which governs the next successful EOR/IOR processes. Among successful completed
EOR projects using steam and hot water as the injection fluid almost all reservoirs were sandstone or unconsolidated sand
reservoirs. Among successful in-situ combustion projects, sandstone reservoirs are the majority. Also, some successful in-situ
combustion projects were carried out on dolomite reservoirs. Many polymer injection projects were performed on sandstone
successfully. In other cases, all cited reservoir formation types were observed. It is worth mentioning that a reservoir may be
composed of different formation types arranged in different production layers.

3.1.4 Reservoir depth

Reservoir depth is an important factor to obtain miscibility in miscible flooding techniques and heat loss calculation in
thermal oil recovery methods. Generally speaking, reservoir thickness should be less in thermal schemes. This issue causes
the heat induced by hot injected fluid to cover the entire reservoir volume. In miscible enhanced oil recovery methods,
reservoir thickness should be so high as to supply the minimum miscibility pressure. However steam flooding process is
SPE 143282 7

practical on reservoirs with depths falling between 500 and 5000 ft. The upper limit (500 ft) is considered due to the required
steam pressure. The lower limit (5000 ft) is established because of high amount of heat loss from injection wells at high
depths. By getting closer to 5000 ft, heat loss increases intensely even by utilizing properly isolating measures.
In addition, as reservoir depth increases, the required injection pressure is increased as well. In such a condition, the
condensable fraction of steam decreases and it results in the reduction of sweep efficiency. These variations are displayed in
Fig. 4. As is obvious from Fig. 4, reservoirs depths under successful EOR projects range from 200 ft and 18500 ft and the
average depth is 4715 ft.

Fig. 4 The depths variations of different reservoirs all around the world

3.1.5 Oil viscosity

The heavier the reservoir oil, the less mobility is expected from reservoir fluid. This can lead to employment of thermal oil
recovery techniques in order to reduce the oil viscosity. Decreasing oil viscosity causes to increase the mobility ratio and
higher oil production. However, polymer injection entails the oil viscosity to be about 200 cp to be efficient. The higher the
oil viscosity, the more concentrated the polymer has to be. The oil viscosity of different reservoirs may be variable from very
low values to 800000 cp, while the mean oil viscosity is about 1870 cp. Fig. 5 displays oil viscosity variations.

3.1.6 Specific gravity (API)

Oil specific gravity can be a representative of oil heaviness Similar to viscosity. In the same way, the lower API values, the
more advisable thermal EOR would be. It should be mentioned that the API of different reservoir oils may vary between 1 to
60 degrees with the API mean around 28 (Fig. 6).
8 SPE 143282

Fig. 5 The viscosities of reservoirs under successful EOR processes in different parts of the world

Fig. 6 The specific gravities of reservoirs under successful EOR processes in different parts of the world

3.1.7 Reservoir temperature

The higher the temperature of the reservoir, the lighter the reservoir oil may be. So it can be concluded that thermal oil
recovery techniques are more suitable for the reservoirs with low temperatures. Reservoir temperature can be a criterion for
surfactant and polymer flooding as well. These chemicals are too sensitive to high temperatures and they may decompose or
suffer from a reduction in efficiency. Normally, the stability temperature of polymers is about 200 oF. Fig. 7 shows how
reservoirs temperature varies for different reservoirs. The mean temperature is about 130 oF and temperature variation range
is 10 to 325 oF.
SPE 143282 9

Fig. 7 The temperatures of reservoirs under successful EOR processes in different parts of the world

Fig. 8 The saturations of reservoirs under successful EOR processes in different parts of the world

3.1.8 Oil saturation

Upon the exploitation of oil recovery techniques on a reservoir, the remaining oil in place is a function of the pervious
processes and their degree of success. The remaining oil in place is very important for any feasibility and economical study to
use specific types of EOR process. The variation of primary oil saturations for different reservoirs under successful EOR
projects are shown in Fig. 8. Primary oil saturation for these reservoirs is variable between very low amounts up to 98 percent
with average saturation as 60 %.
10 SPE 143282

4. Results and Discussion

Two different sets of data are implemented for network training. First the Data produced from the Table named after Taber
(Taber et al., 1997) and the second Data series extracted from reported successful EOR processes around the world. Firstly,
the designed network is trained by the set of Data produced from Taber Table which consists of 5280 lines of Data. Then the
trained network is tested by the same set of Data, the results of which are arranged in Table 1:

Table 1. Test of trained network by the same Data set (Taber Table)

N2-miscible HC-miscible CO2-miscible Polymer Combustion Steam Actual

64 0 0 0 0 0 N2-miscible
64 156 36 0 0 0 HC-miscible
64 156 36 0 0 0 CO2-miscible
0 0 0 669 191 4 Polymer
36 105 3 669 1290 201 Combustion
0 0 0 308 355 873 Steam
Error rate = 41.52%

The numbers on the main diagonal represent the number of Data predicted correctly as they were checked by Taber screening
criteria. The reported error rate is a criterion of the amount of data domain entanglement. The Data rather than the main
diagonal represent the number of wrong perditions.
Another network is then trained by using the Data collected from world oil reservoirs under successful EOR processes, which
consist of 1098 Data lines. The results of testing this trained network by the same Data set are shown in Table 2, which lacks
an accurate prediction in most cases:

Table 2. Test of trained network by the same Data set (Field Data)

Steam Combustion CO2-miscible CO2-immiscible HC-miscible Polymer Actual

78 95 48 24 60 49 Steam
5 6 14 5 3 3 Combustion
46 52 35 56 62 73 CO2-miscible
16 25 8 9 10 17 CO2-immiscible
24 22 15 18 13 27 HC-miscible
20 24 28 17 17 18 Polymer
Error rate = 84.74%
The next step is the trial removal of different parameters in order to both perform parameter sensitivity analysis and also
analyze the effect of saturation which turns to be unvarying in different EOR processes as is obvious in Fig. 7. Besides the
porosity is not present in Taber Table and thus can’t be involved in the final data set. The miscible Nitrogen flooding is also
removed from the set because of the few numbers of Data which can result in weak predictions by the network. The resting
results are shown in Table 3 and some graphical results are presented in Figs. 8 to 11.
SPE 143282 11

Table 3. Test of trained network by the same Data set (Field Data without saturation)

Steam Combustion CO2-miscible HC-miscible Polymer Actual

346 1 0 0 4 Steam
7 25 1 0 3 Combustion
0 1 302 5 0 CO2-miscible
1 0 6 109 0 HC-miscible
11 1 14 1 88 Polymer
Error rate = 6.149%

Porosity Porosity
Porosity1 0 Temperature Temperature
Porosity1 0
Porosity2 0 Temp1 0 Porosity2 0 Temp1 0
Porosity3 100 EO R Temp2 0 EO R Temp2 0
Porosity3 0
Porosity4 0 Steam 21.6 Temp3 0 Porosity4 100 Steam 16.9 Temp3 0
25.5 ± 2.6
Combustion 21.6 Temp4 100 Combustion 22.7 Temp4 100
CO2miscible 21.3 65 ± 20 CO2miscible 19.3
240 ± 49 240 ± 49
HCmiscible 17.9 HCmiscible 23.1
Polymer 17.5 Polymer 18.0
Permeability Permeability
Perm1 0 Viscosity Viscosity
Perm1 0
Perm2 100 Viscosity1 0 Perm2 0 Viscosity1 0
Perm3 0 Viscosity2 0 Perm3 0 Viscosity2 0
Perm4 0 Viscosity3 0 Perm4 100 Viscosity3 0
Viscosity4 100 50500 ± 29000 Viscosity4 100
106 ± 55
40300 ± 23000 40300 ± 23000

Depth Gravity Depth Gravity

Depth1 0 Gravity1 100 Depth1 0 Gravity1 0
Depth2 0 Gravity2 0 Depth2 100 Gravity2 0
Depth3 100 Gravity3 0 Depth3 0 Gravity3 100
Depth4 0 Gravity4 0 Depth4 0 Gravity4 0
5450 ± 520 7±4 3180 ± 790 34.5 ± 2

Fig 8. A typical answer of the trained network with field data with
exclusion of saturation and porosity parameters. Porosity [21-30]; Perm.
[11-200]; Depth [6350-4550]; Gravity [0-14]; Viscosity [580-80000];
Temp. [154-325], which predicts almost the same probability for all
methods.
Fig 9. A typical answer of the trained network with field data with
exclusion of saturation and porosity parameters. Porosity [30-100];
Perm. [1000-100000]; Depth [1800-4550]; Gravity [31-38]; Viscosity
[580-80000]; Temp. [154-325], which predicts almost the same
probability for all methods.

Porosity Porosity
Porosity1 0 Temperature Temperature
Porosity1 0
Porosity2 0 Temp1 0 Porosity2 0 Temp1 0
Porosity3 100 EO R Temp2 0 Porosity3 100 EO R Temp2 0
Porosity4 0 Steam 0.64 Temp3 0 Porosity4 0 Steam 0.76 Temp3 100
25.5 ± 2.6
Combustion 0.72 Temp4 100 Combustion 0.74 Temp4 0
CO2miscible 97.2 25.5 ± 2.6 CO2miscible 0.73
240 ± 49 132 ± 13
HCmiscible 0.71 HCmiscible 0.73
Polymer 0.70 Polymer 97.0
Permeability Permeability
Perm1 0 Viscosity Perm1 0 Viscosity
Perm2 0 Viscosity1 0 Perm2 0 Viscosity1 0
Perm3 100 Viscosity2 0 Perm3 100 Viscosity2 0
Perm4 0 Viscosity3 100 Perm4 0 Viscosity3 100
600 ± 230 Viscosity4 0 600 ± 230 Viscosity4 0
291 ± 170 291 ± 170

Depth Gravity Depth Gravity

Depth1 0 Gravity1 0 Depth1 0 Gravity1 0
Depth2 0 Gravity2 0 Depth2 0 Gravity2 100
Depth3 0 Gravity3 0 Depth3 100 Gravity3 0
Depth4 100 Gravity4 100 Depth4 0 Gravity4 0
12400 ± 3500 49 ± 6.4 5450 ± 520 22.5 ± 4.9

Fig 10. A typical answer of the trained network with field data with
exclusion of saturation and porosity parameters. Porosity [21-30];
Perm. [200-1000]; Depth [6350-18500]; Gravity [36-60]; Viscosity
[2.5-580]; Temp. [154-325], which predicts miscible CO2 injection
with 97% probability.
Fig 11. A typical answer of the trained network with field data with
exclusion of saturation and porosity parameters. Porosity [21-30];
Perm. [200-1000]; Depth [6350-4550]; Gravity [14-31]; Viscosity
[2.5-580]; Temp. [110-154], which predicts polymer injection with
97% probability.
 12 SPE 143282

Then the Data are analyzed by the removal of both saturation and porosity the results of which are presented in Table 4:

Table 4. Test of trained network by the same Data set (Field Data without saturation and porosity)

Steam Combustion CO2-miscible HC-miscible Polymer Actual

345 0 0 1 4 Steam
10 19 3 1 3 Combustion
1 1 281 21 5 CO2-miscible
0 0 4 111 2 HC-miscible
18 2 21 1 73 Polymer
Error rate = 10.57%

The slight enhancement of error in prediction proves that porosity can be an influential parameter although we are obliged to
omit it in the final Data set. Finally, the network is trained and tested by a combination of field and Taber Data the results of
which are presented in Table 5:

Table 5. Test of trained network by the same Data set (Field and Taber Data without saturation and porosity)

Steam Combustion CO2-miscible HC-miscible Polymer Actual

1862 19 1 0 8 Steam
909 1362 15 25 29 Combustion
0 11 60 46 2 CO2-miscible
1 10 25 269 18 HC-miscible
222 334 17 57 70 Polymer
Error rate = 32.56%

The results extracted from the network in different domains are presented in Figs. 12 to 17.

Permeability EO R
Temperature
Permeability EO R
Temperature
Perm1 0 Steam 1.38 Temp1 100
Perm1 0 Steam 40.1 Temp1 100 Perm2 100 Combustion 1.36 Temp2 0
Perm2 100 Combustion 0.61 Temp2 0 Perm3 0 CO2miscible 48.0 Temp3 0
Perm3 0 CO2miscible 37.0 Temp3 0 Perm4 0 HCmiscible 48.0 Temp4 0
Perm4 0 HCmiscible 11.1 Temp4 0 106 ± 55 Polymer 1.34 50 ± 29
106 ± 55 Polymer 11.1 50 ± 29

Depth Gravity Viscosity

Depth Gravity Viscosity Depth1 0 Gravity1 0 Viscosity1 100
Depth1 0 Gravity1 0 Viscosity1 0 Depth2 0 Gravity2 0 Viscosity2 0
Depth2 100 Gravity2 100 Viscosity2 0 Depth3 100 Gravity3 100 Viscosity3 0
Depth3 0 Gravity3 0 Viscosity3 100 Depth4 0 Gravity4 0 Viscosity4 0
Depth4 0 Gravity4 0 Viscosity4 0 5450 ± 520 34.5 ± 2 0.5 ± 0.29
3180 ± 790 22.5 ± 4.9 291 ± 170

Fig 13. A typical answer of the trained network with a combination of field and Taber
Fig 12. A typical answer of the trained network with a combination of field and Data excluding saturation and porosity parameters which predicts both hydrocarbon
Taber Data excluding saturation and porosity parameters and CO2on miscible techniques with the same probability.
 SPE 143282 13

Permeability Temperature Permeability EO R

Temperature
EO R
Perm1 0 Temp1 0 Perm1 0 Steam 28.4 Temp1 0
Steam 0.79
Perm2 100 Temp2 0 Perm2 100 Combustion 19.9 Temp2 0
Combustion 32.8
Perm3 0 CO2miscible 21.7 Temp3 100 Perm3 0 CO2miscible 6.62 Temp3 100
Perm4 0 HCmiscible 0.79 Temp4 0 Perm4 0 HCmiscible 6.62 Temp4 0
Polymer 43.9 106 ± 55 Polymer 38.4 132 ± 13
106 ± 55 132 ± 13

Depth Gravity Viscosity Depth Gravity Viscosity

Depth1 0 Gravity1 0 Viscosity1 0 Depth1 0 Gravity1 0 Viscosity1 0
Depth2 0 Gravity2 100 Viscosity2 0 Depth2 100 Gravity2 100 Viscosity2 0
Depth3 100 Gravity3 0 Viscosity3 100 Depth3 0 Gravity3 0 Viscosity3 100
Depth4 0 Gravity4 0 Viscosity4 0
Depth4 0 Gravity4 0 Viscosity4 0
3180 ± 790 22.5 ± 4.9 291 ± 170
5450 ± 520 22.5 ± 4.9 291 ± 170

Fig 14. A typical answer of the trained network with a combination of field and Fig 15. A typical answer of the trained network with a combination of field and
Taber Data excluding saturation and porosity parameters. Taber Data excluding saturation and porosity parameters

Permeability EO R
Temperature Permeability Temperature
EO R
Perm1 0 Steam 53.9 Temp1 0 Perm1 0 Steam 1.04 Temp1 0
Perm2 100 Combustion 26.6 Temp2 100 Perm2 0 Combustion 10.4 Temp2 0
Perm3 0 CO2miscible 1.01 Temp3 0 Perm3 100 CO2miscible 17.8 Temp3 0
Perm4 0 HCmiscible 1.03 Temp4 0 Perm4 0 HCmiscible 69.7 Temp4 100
106 ± 55 Polymer 17.5 105 ± 2.9 600 ± 230 Polymer 1.05 240 ± 49

Depth Gravity Viscosity Depth Gravity Viscosity

Depth1 0 Gravity1 0 Viscosity1 0 Depth1 0 Gravity1 0 Viscosity1 100
Depth2 100 Gravity2 100 Viscosity2 0 Depth2 0 Gravity2 0 Viscosity2 0
Depth3 0 Gravity3 0 Viscosity3 100 Depth3 0 Gravity3 0 Viscosity3 0
Depth4 0 Gravity4 0 Viscosity4 0 Depth4 100 Gravity4 100 Viscosity4 0
3180 ± 790 22.5 ± 4.9 291 ± 170 12400 ± 3500 49 ± 6.4 0.5 ± 0.29

Fig 16. A typical answer of the trained network with a combination of field and Fig 17. A typical answer of the trained network with a combination of field and
Taber Data excluding saturation and porosity parameters. Taber Data excluding saturation and porosity parameters.

Table 6. Test of trained network by 10% of the data Removed off the training set

Steam Combustion CO2-miscible HC-miscible Polymer Actual

122 4 0 0 0 Steam
62 72 3 1 18 Combustion
0 2 4 2 0 CO2-miscible
0 1 2 18 0 HC-miscible
15 21 1 4 6 Polymer
Error rate = 37.99%

In order to check the network ability for correct prediction through untrained domains, the network is tested by 10% of the
Data removed off the training Data Set. The results are presented in Table 6 which turns out to be acceptable.

The produced expert system is also applied to the gathered data pertaining to 10 Iranian southwest reservoirs. The results
show that, CO2 flooding can be the most promising among various EOR techniques, which is in agreement with a previous
work (Kord et al., 2008). According to this study, considering reservoir characteristics, and excluding the economic
limitations, CO2 flooding is considered as the most efficient EOR method for Iranian carbonate reservoirs under study.

5. Conclusions
The number of data available turns out to be determining and lack of sufficient data results in wrong predictions, particularly
through untrained domains. In order to check the network ability for correct prediction through untrained domains, the
network is tested by 10% of the Data removed off the training Data Set. The results are acceptable relative to the number of
Data used for training.
14 SPE 143282

The produced expert system is also applied to the gathered data pertaining to 10 south-west Iranian reservoirs. The results
show that, CO2 flooding can be the most promising among various EOR techniques.

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