GSMA MobileEconomy2020 Global PDF

The
Mobile
Economy
2020
Copyright © 2020 GSM Association
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Contents
Executive summary 2
1 The mobile market in numbers 10

1.1 A new decade begins as growth continues 11
1.2 4G dominates as 5G begins to make its mark 12
1.3 Evolution of the digital consumer 14
1.4 Financials recover in 2019 and 2020, with modest growth out to 2025 16
2 Key trends shaping the mobile industry 18

2.1 A 5G reality check: learnings one year on 19
2.2 The telco of the future 25
2.3 IoT: the battle is on to connect the home and workplace 30
2.4 What else does the decade ahead have in store? 36
3 Mobile contributing to economic growth 37

and addressing social challenges
3.1 Mobile contribution to economic growth 38
3.2 Expanding the benefits of mobile internet 41
3.3 Mobile delivering social impact 45
4 Policies to accelerate digital development 54

The Mobile Economy 2020
Executive
Summary
5G learnings one year on
2019 was a pivotal year for 5G, as operators are not widely appreciated, with many
and enterprises began to stake their claim companies believing that 4G remains
in the technology and consumers started ‘good enough’. Most of the key benefits for
to realise the benefits of the latest mobile enterprises won’t come until standalone
generation: 5G is deployed. The challenge, therefore,
is to lay the foundations now and start the
• Operators: Operators are increasingly
conversations about what problems 5G
seeking ways to grow revenue and cut
can solve in the future. As this is a highly
costs in a low-growth environment,
competitive area given the presence of
which is made more complicated by the
Amazon, Microsoft, Google and other
demanding requirements of 5G services
cloud companies, speed to market is an
(i.e. high speed, low latency and ultra-
important factor.
reliability). Operators therefore need to
evolve their networks (using innovations • Consumers: Awareness and knowledge
such as virtual RAN, edge networking of 5G are both rising as hype makes way
and network automation) to meet the for reality. However, there is wide variation
demands of the 5G era. They will also need across the globe in terms of intentions to
to diversify their revenue streams (into upgrade to 5G and the willingness to pay
areas such as pay TV, media/entertainment, more for it. In general, consumers in South
advertising and IoT) to seek growth Korea, China and the Middle East tend to
beyond core telecoms services. be the most willing to upgrade to 5G, while
those in the US, Europe and Japan seem
• Enterprises: While speed gains are a
satisfied using 4G for the time being. 5G is
well-recognised benefit of 5G, other
still in its infancy though; as more tangible
improvements (e.g. network slicing, edge
use cases are deployed, more consumers
computing and low-latency services)
will appreciate the benefits of 5G.
2
Executive Summary
4G rules, but 5G is ramping up
In 2019, 4G became the dominant mobile IoT will be an integral part of the 5G era.
technology across the world with over 4 Between 2019 and 2025, the number of
billion connections, accounting for 52% of global IoT connections will more than double
total connections (excluding licensed cellular to almost 25 billion, while global IoT revenue
IoT). 4G connections will continue to grow for will more than triple to $1.1 trillion. The
the next few years, peaking at just under 60% smart home is a critical battleground, with
of global connections by 2023. fragmentation being a major challenge to
integration and adoption. There are, however,
Meanwhile, 5G is gaining pace: it is now live
early signs that smart speakers could be
in 24 markets; numerous 5G smartphones
at the centre of a smart home revolution in
have been launched; and 5G awareness and
2020.
the intention to upgrade among consumers
are both on the rise. By 2025, 5G will account Despite some financial headwinds, the
for 20% of global connections, with take-up outlook for global mobile revenue remains
particularly strong across developed Asia, stable. Following a stabilisation of pricing
North America and Europe. To support this trends, particularly in Europe and India, and
generational shift and further drive consumer continued strong data growth in emerging
engagement, operators are expected to invest markets, total mobile revenues reached
around $1.1 trillion worldwide between 2020 $1.03 trillion in 2019. Revenue will rise steadily
and 2025 in mobile capex, roughly 80% of at around 1% per year out to 2025, largely
which will be in 5G networks. because of growing revenues in enterprise IoT
segments and new 5G services.
Growth is becoming harder to see, but it’s still there
By the end of 2019, 5.2 billion people Mobile continues to make a significant
subscribed to mobile services, accounting for contribution to the global economy. In 2019,
67% of the global population. Adding new mobile technologies and services generated
subscribers is increasingly difficult as markets $4.1 trillion of economic value added (4.7%
become saturated and the economics of of GDP) globally. This figure will approach
reaching rural populations become more $5 trillion (4.9% of GDP) by 2024 as countries
difficult to justify in a challenging financial increasingly benefit from the improvements in
climate for mobile operators. Despite productivity and efficiency brought about by
this, there will be around 600 million new increased take-up of mobile services. Further
subscribers by 2025 – mostly in India, China, ahead, 5G technologies are expected to
Pakistan and Nigeria – for a total of 5.8 billion contribute $2.2 trillion to the global economy
subscribers to mobile services (70% of the between 2024 and 2034. Key sectors such as
global population). manufacturing/utilities (particularly in China)
and professional/financial services (especially
in MENA and North America) will benefit the
most from the new technology.
3
Executive Summary
The benefits of mobile are reaching further than ever

The connectivity gap continues to close: contribute to and catalyse the achievement
almost 1 billion additional people have been of the UN Sustainable Development Goals
covered by mobile broadband networks over (SDGs). In addition, the mobile industry
the last five years. However, factors other than is playing a key role in mitigating the
infrastructure are holding back the adoption catastrophic impacts of climate change,
of mobile internet, namely affordability, which threatens sustainable development
consumer readiness, and availability of locally everywhere. However, much more can be
relevant content and services. These barriers done to leverage the power of mobile and
will slowly be overcome though, and by 2025 support the delivery of the SDG 2030 targets.
an additional 1.2 billion people will start using This includes helping people realise the full
mobile internet for the first time, which will benefits of accessing health information,
bring the total number of mobile internet public services and digital payments, and
subscribers globally to 5 billion (over 60% of leveraging new technologies to reduce
the population). pollution, improve resilience to climate
change and increase energy efficiency.
With this growth in connectivity, individuals
are increasingly using mobile to access
an array of life-enhancing services that
4
Executive Summary
Policies remain essential for accelerating digital development

Mobile broadband generates vast benefits for develop equipment, devices and services
society and the economy. However, the full that take advantage of these frequencies.
potential of mobile technologies cannot be However, governments and regulators
realised without the active participation of should avoid inflating 5G spectrum prices
governments and regulatory authorities. They (e.g. setting high auction reserve prices)
must work together with the private sector or setting aside spectrum (e.g. for vertical
to enable vibrant, competitive markets and industries) that has been identified for
to help shape the digital environment citizens mobile.
want. There are a number of key areas where
3. Capitalising on the 5G opportunity:
forward-facing policies and regulations are
Governments and regulators must
particularly crucial:
play their part to help propel 5G into
1. Network performance and reach: commercial use by implementing policies
Mobile connectivity requires continuous that encourage advanced technologies
investment by operators to keep up with (e.g. AI and IoT) to be applied across all
demand and provide the service consumers economic sectors.
and businesses expect, whether through
4. Ensuring consumer trust:
densification in cities or plugging coverage
Erosion of trust in digital services was a
gaps in rural areas. Governments at all
significant concern in 2019. As a result,
levels can take steps to facilitate network
governments around the world are
deployment and expansion: simplifying
implementing new or revised rules to
and standardising planning procedures and
ensure their citizens are protected when
regulations for site acquisition, colocation
they engage with digital technologies.
and upgrades of base stations and small
For data privacy laws to be successful,
cells; offering a reasonable expectation of
however, they must provide effective
approval for voluntary network-sharing
protection for individuals while allowing
deals while avoiding mandated sharing
organisations the freedom to operate,
agreements; and adopting policies that
innovate and comply in a way that makes
reduce costs for mobile operators while
sense for their businesses and secures
spurring investment.
positive outcomes for society.
2. Spectrum policy for the 5G era:
To advance the mobile ecosystem and the
Operators require access to sufficient
digital economy overall, governments should
radio spectrum in suitable frequencies,
strive, as much as possible, to lighten the
particularly in the sub-1 GHz coverage
regulatory load on the industry. When the
bands and prime 5G mid- and mmWave
business environment for mobile operators is
bands. With key spectrum (26 GHz and 40
less costly and more flexible, the performance
GHz) secured for mobile at the 2019 World
and reach of mobile service expands, the pace
Radiocommunication Conference (WRC),
of innovation increases and users’ confidence
a global ecosystem can now begin to
in the digital ecosystem is strengthened.
5
Executive Summary
Global Market
UNIQUE MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS 2019 2025
5.2bn 5.8bn
2019-2025
CAGR: 1.9%
67% Penetration Rate
(% of population)
70%
MOBILE INTERNET USERS 2019 2025
3.8bn 5.0bn
Penetration Rate
2019-2025 49% (% of population) 61%
CAGR: 4.6%
2019 2025
8.0bn 8.8bn
SIM CONNECTIONS
Excluding licensed cellular IoT
Penetration Rate
2019-2025
103% (% of population) 107%
CAGR: 1.7%
OPERATOR REVENUES
AND INVESTMENT 2019 2025
$1.03tn $1.14tn
Operator capex of $1.1 trillion for the period 2020–2025 (78% on 5G)
INTERNET OF THINGS 2019 2025
12.0bn 24.6bn
Total connections Total connections
SMARTPHONES 2019 2025
65% 80%
% of
connections
Excluding licensed
cellular IoT
4G 2019 2025 5G 2025
52% 56%
1.8bn
connections
20% % of total connections
Excluding licensed cellular IoT
% of connections Excluding licensed cellular IoT
MOBILE INDUSTRY CONTRIBUTION TO GDP 2019 2024
$4.1tn $4.9tn
4.7% of GDP 4.9% of GDP
PUBLIC FUNDING 2019 EMPLOYMENT 2019
$490bn
Mobile ecosystem contribution
16m Jobs directly supported
to public funding by the mobile ecosystem
(before regulatory and spectrum fees)
+14m indirect jobs
Note: All data for Asia Pacific in this report excludes China, Hong Kong, Macao
and Taiwan unless otherwise stated.
Asia Pacific TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION
11% 7%
2025 2019 2025
5G 68% 48%
14%
2G
60% 65%
27%
2019 SMARTPHONE ADOPTION
2019 2025
4G
25%
3G
64% 81%
CIS TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION
12% 2% 2025 2019 2025
5G
68% 33%
17%
2G
81% 82%
25%
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION
2019
2019 2025
42%
4G 3G
62% 77%
Europe TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION
34% 1% 2025 2019 2025

7%
5G
58%
14%
2G
86% 87%
2019 2025
76% 83%
59% 28%
4G 3G
Greater China TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION
47% 2025 2019 2025
5G 83%
13%
5%
2G
82% 85%
2019 2025
4G 3G
72% 89%
53%
8
Executive Summary
Latin America TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION
7% 5% 2025 2019 2025
68% 73%
67%
5G 47% 2G
17%
21%
2019 2025
4G
35%
3G
69% 79%
MENA TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION
6% 2025 2019 2025

48% 10%
5G 29% 2G
64% 68%
31%
40% 2019 2025
4G 36% 3G
57% 74%
North America TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION
48% 1% 6% 2025 2019 2025
5G 82% 6%
12%
2G
83% 85%
2019 2025
4G 3G
83% 91%
45%
Sub-Saharan Africa TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION
2025
27% 3% 2018 2025
45% 50%
5G 12% 2G
10%
46%
2018 2025
58%
4G
45%
3G
45% 67%
9
*% of mobile connections excluding licensed cellular IoT
Note: totals may not add up due to rounding Executive Summary
01
The mobile
market in
numbers
1.1
A new decade begins as growth continues
Source: GSMA Intelligence
Figure 1
Milestones for the mobile industry

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Two thirds
SUBSCRIBERS
70% of
of global
5.5 billion population
population
subscribers subscribes to
subscribe to
mobile services
mobile services
4 billion 5 billion mobile

MOBILE INTERNET
mobile internet internet

SUBSCRIBERS
subscribers subscribers
Half of 60% of
population population
using mobile using mobile
internet internet
CONNECTIONS
8.5 billion
8 billion mobile
mobile
connections
connections
4 billion 4G
4G CONNECTIONS
connections
4G peaks at
just under 5 billion 4G
4G accounts 60% of total connections
for over connections
50% of total
connections
CONNECTIONS
1 billion 5G 1.8 billion 5G

connections connections
5G
5G overtakes 5G overtakes
2G 3G
BROADBAND
MBB accounts
MBB accounts
MOBILE
(MBB)
for over
for 95% of total
85% of total
connections
connections
5.2 billion 7.1 billion

CONNECTIONS
smartphone smartphone
SMARTPHONE
connections 75% connections

smartphone
65% adoption 80%
smartphone smartphone
adoption adoption
11
The mobile market
in numbers

Figure 2
There will be more than 600 million new subscribers by 2025; nearly two-thirds will be
from Asia Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa
Million
18 10 7 610
57
58
71
142
247
Asia Pacific Sub- MENA Greater Latin North Europe CIS Total new
Saharan China America America subscribers
Africa by 2025
1.2
4G dominates as 5G begins to make its mark
Figure 3
4G now accounts for half of total connections; 5G will start moving the needle in 2020
% of connections (excluding licensed cellular IoT)
70%
60% 56% 4G
50%
40%
30%
20% 5G
20%
18% 3G
10%
5% 2G
0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
12
The mobile market
in numbers

Figure 4
Mobile 5G is now commercially available from 46 operators in 24 markets worldwide;

79 operators across a further 39 markets have announced plans to launch mobile services*
*As of January 2020

Live commercial Planned
5G network commercial 5G
network
13
The mobile market
in numbers

Figure 5
1.8 billion 5G connections by 2025: developed Asia and the US will lead the way
5G adoption in 2025 (% of connections)
Global average 20.1% 5G connections in 2025
Developed Asia 50% 181m

North America 48% 205m
Europe 34% 231m
Developing Asia 22% 972m
GCC Arab States 21% 18m
CIS 12% 51m
Latin America 7% 51m
Rest of MENA 4% 30m
Sub-Saharan Africa 3% 31m
1.3
Evolution of the digital consumer

Figure 6
1.2 billion more people will be using mobile internet by 2025

Mobile internet subscribers (% of population)
100%
80%
5 billion people
60%
40%
3.8 billion people
20%
0%
World Europe North Greater CIS Latin Asia MENA Sub-

America China America Pacific Saharan
Africa
14 2019 2025
The mobile market
in numbers

Figure 7
Four in five connections globally will be smartphones by 2025; smartphone connections in

Sub-Saharan Africa will nearly double
% of connections (excluding licensed cellular IoT)
83% 91% 89%

76% 83% 81% 80% 79% 77%
72% 65% 69% 74% 67%
64% 62% 57%
45%
North Greater Europe Asia Pacific World Latin CIS MENA Sub-Saharan
America China America Africa
2019 2025
Source: GSMA Intelligence Consumer Insights Survey 2019

Figure 8
Digital engagement is rising, particularly in financial/commerce services; Latin America and

developing Asia are key regions of growing engagement
% of smartphone users engaging in activity at least once per week
Developed Asia Developing Asia Europe & CIS Latin America
YoY YoY YoY YoY

2019 2019 2019 2019
change change change change
Communication 58% -3 pp 68% +10 pp 63% +1 pp 79% +9 pp
Information 34% -2 pp 18% +3 pp 36% +1 pp 42% +9 pp
Entertainment 31% -1 pp 25% +3 pp 30% +3 pp 40% +6 pp
Financial/digital
28% +8 pp 12% +8 pp 26% +12 pp 22% +15 pp
commerce
MENA North America Sub-Saharan Africa
YoY YoY YoY

2019 2019 2019
change change change
Communication 78% +3 pp 60% - 67% +5 pp
Information 49% +7 pp 35% +1 pp 19% -
Entertainment 43% +4 pp 38% +5 pp 22% -2 pp
Financial/digital
32% +10 pp 28% +12 pp 17% +7 pp
commerce
15
The mobile market
in numbers
Source: Ericsson, GSMA Intelligence

Figure 9
Global mobile data usage will grow almost fourfold by 2025, spurred by increased
smartphone adoption and availablity of affordable high-speed network services
GB per subscriber per month
50 2019 2025
x4
35
28 29 28 28
24
7.5 10 7.6 8.3 9.8

5.3 4.7 6.8
0.8
World North Europe & CIS Asia Pacific MENA Greater China Latin Sub-Saharan
America America Africa
1.4
Financials recover in 2019 and 2020, with modest growth out to 2025
Figure 10
Total mobile revenues grew 1.1% year-on-year to reach $1.03 trillion in 2019 – following a
further pick-up in 2020, growth will slow to around 1% annually to 2025
Mobile revenue (billion), YoY growth
$1,200 3%
$1,000
$435
$400
$800 2%
$600
$400 1%
$675
$200 $630
$0 0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Developed markets Developing markets Developed growth Developing growth
16
The mobile market
in numbers
Figure 11
Operators will invest $1.1 trillion in their networks globally in the next five years; almost 80%
will be in 5G
Capex, 2020–2025 (billion)
$350
90% 90%
$300 87%
76%
$250
69% 68%
62%
$200
$150
$100
27%
$50
$0
North Asia Pacific Europe Greater Latin MENA Sub-Saharan CIS
America China America Africa
Non-5G capex 5G capex 5G as a % of total

capex
Looking out to 2025, 5G network investment can be divided into three main waves:
1. Early deployments in 2018–2020:

The US, China, Japan and South Korea lead the way.
2. Ramp-up during 2021–2023:
Europe and MENA accelerate their investments.
3. 5G proliferates in 2023 and beyond:
5G gathers steam in Latin America, CIS and parts of Africa.
17
The mobile market
in numbers
02
Key trends
shaping
the mobile
industry
2.1
A 5G reality check: learnings one year on
Enterprises are taking tentative steps into the 5G era

Companies across a range of verticals (such as and trials from local operators have paid dividends,
manufacturing, power generation and aerospace) as evidenced by the widespread intent among
are evaluating their options for digitising product companies in the country’s industrial sector to utilise
assembly and general operations management. 5G.
This presents an opportunity for operators that can
Multiple groups, besides operators, are targetting
offer 5G with complementary infrastructure for
enterprise digitisation, including cloud and software-
low-latency services (mostly data centres close to
as-a-service companies and systems integrators. For
the edge) and analytics. However, while a majority
example, for its manufacturing plant upgrade, Ford
of enterprises recognise the benefits of speed gains
may look equally to Amazon or Verizon – or perhaps
brought about by 5G, other improvements (such as
a combination of both. The challenge, therefore, will
network slicing, edge computing and low-latency
be to move the conversation about 5G away from
services) are not widely appreciated, with many
technology and towards a consultative mentality of
believing that 4G remains ‘good enough’. China is
problem-solving.
a clear exception in this regard: early partnerships
Source: GSMA Intelligence IoT Enterprise Survey Q4 2018

Figure 12
Enterprise verticals are the real opportunity for 5G, with China racing ahead in this area
Which of the following 5G capabilities would make it compelling for your organisation to use 5G for future
IoT deployments? (% of respondents, multiple answers possible)
74% 74%
67%
49% 53%
41% 42%
31%
Higher data transfer speeds Network slicing Edge computing Low-latency services
World China
19
Key trends shaping
the mobile industry
Smart manufacturing and autonomous cars are important verticals for 5G

Figure 13
5G use cases in smart manufacturing
Robots and robotics Remote real-time manufacturing
• 5G increasingly complements • Live remote monitoring and

Wi‑Fi in factories reconfiguration of robots and
processes
• Real-time AI-powered robot
collaboration and integration • Remote quality inspection
• Cloud-based wireless robotics
Labour augmentation Connected operational

intelligence and analytics
• 5G and AI-powered industrial AR, • 5G coupled with AI enables real‑time

enabling workforce training and data gathering to inform immediate
augmenting human skills manufacturing decisions
• High precision simulations of • AI-based analytics for processes,
human-machine interactions in inefficiencies and predictive
various manufacturing situations maintenance for robots
• Manufacturing companies are adopting China as it aims to become a global leader in

robots, AI, sensors and a range of industrial the industrial economy).
IoT solutions to automate and monitor
• The ultimate goal for smart manufacturing
production. In many cases, these depend on
would be an autonomously controlled factory.
low-latency connectivity (theoretically sub-1
An early template of such a design can be
ms round trip) for precision thresholds and
seen with the Changying Precision Technology
real-time analytics, which will likely require
Company in China (which automated 90% of
edge-computing infrastructure.
its production line) and, more recently, in a
• Globally, smart manufacturing IoT connections satellite production facility in Florida jointly
will grow fourfold between 2019 and 2025 to owned by OneWeb and Airbus.
over 1.3 billion connections (largely driven by
20
Key trends shaping
the mobile industry

Figure 14
5G will be critical for autonomous vehicles, even if it’s not driving them
Levels of vehicle autonomy
0 1 2 3 4 5
No Driver Partial Conditional High Full

Levels automation assistance automation automation automation automation
AI
Level 4 The car is in full control for the entire trip under certain conditions with human backup driver.
Level 5 The car has no steering wheel, pedals or driver.
5G-V2X plays a key role in supporting autonomous driving
Vehicle-to-Vehicle Vehicle-to-Pedestrian Vehicle-to-Network Vehicle-to-Infrastructure

(V2V) (V2P) (V2N) (V2I)
e.g. emergency e.g. pedestrian on e.g. traffic queue five e.g. traffic signal
vehicle approaching walkway ahead kilometres ahead ahead turning red
• Automakers and automotive tech players aim • The role of operators will most likely be
to bring commercially available Level 4 and 5 in helping cars communicate with their
autonomous cars to the roads over the next surroundings (C-V2X) and not with the actual
five years (Waymo was the first to do so in driving given the risk of signal loss.
2019). Mobility-as-a-service (ride hailing) in
• Wi-Fi is a competing alternative but has
selected driving areas will be the key use case
the drawback of higher costs for successive
over the next five to 10 years.
equipment upgrades. The rejection of the
• The rate of progress depends heavily on two Wi-Fi standard in autonomous vehicles by the
factors: AI, to convert real-time recognition European Commission in July 2019 provides a
of the surrounding environment into actual window of opportunity for cellular.
decisions, and regulation.
21
Key trends shaping
the mobile industry
Consumers are wising up to the benefits of 5G – but will they pay for it?
The number of live 5G markets is increasing by the of the earliest launches – appear to be the most
day and consumers’ awareness of the technology excited by the prospect of upgrading to 5G, while
is also growing as hype makes way for reality. those in the US, Europe and Japan seem more
However, there is wide variation across the globe content with 4G for the time being. 5G is still in
in terms of intentions to upgrade to 5G and the its infancy though; as more tangible use cases are
willingness to pay more for it. In general, consumers deployed, more consumers will appreciate the
in South Korea and China – having witnessed some benefits of 5G.

Figure 15
Higher data speed is a well-recognised benefit of 5G; more needs to be done to raise
awareness of other benefits
From what you know of 5G, what do you expect it will deliver?
(% of respondents, of those who have heard of 5G)
72%
49%
36% 31% 29%
23%
Improved mobile Improved mobile Innovative new Connectivity Improved fixed Lower service costs
data speed service coverage services for previously home broadband
unconnected
devices
22
Key trends shaping
the mobile industry

Figure 16
Awareness of 5G does not necessarily translate into an intention to upgrade
90%
‘Low awareness, high interest’ ‘Early enthusiasts’
Mean value
80%
70% China
Argentina South Korea

60%
Chile
Intention to upgrade to 5G
Russia
50%
US
Poland
40%
Mean value
Italy
Sweden Spain
30% Canada Australia
France
Netherlands UK
Japan
20%
Germany
10%
‘5G not on the radar’ ‘Not yet convinced’
0%
50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100%
Awareness of 5G (% of adults)
23
Key trends shaping
the mobile industry

Figure 17
Early adopters tend to be willing to pay more for 5G

How much extra would you be willing to pay for 5G? (% of respondents, of those who intend to upgrade to 5G)
5% 2% 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1%
14% 13% 13% 11%

21% 13% 14%
23%
39%
41% 39%
43% 42% 41%
41%
50%
37% 43% 47%

37% 38% 39%
35%
22% 8%
2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 2%
0%
China CIS North MENA World Latin Europe Asia Pacific
America America
Over 20% more Up to 20% more Up to 10% more No extra Don’t know
Note: totals may not add up due to rounding

Figure 18
China and South Korea lead in potential 5G consumer revenue uplift

Potential service revenue uplift from 5G
• The projection for China is driven by a

populace that is eager to upgrade to 5G (70%)
and willing to pay more for it (see Figures 16
and 17).
• Upgrade intentions in South Korea (as in the
US) are slightly weaker comparatively, but
consumers appear willing to pay for faster
3.1%
2.7% service.
1.8% • Expectations are more tempered in Europe

1.3% and Japan, where only around 20% of people
1.0% intend to upgrade from 4G. In Japan, this
0.7%
should rise in 2020 as marketing intensifies
China South US Germany France Japan ahead of the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo.
Korea In Europe, the figure is likely closer to the
Note: see Uncovering the impact of 5G on mobile revenue for more information
true picture as consumers are content with
and methodology details 4G speeds and hesitant to increase spending
amid weak economic conditions across the EU.
24
Key trends shaping
the mobile industry
2.2
The telco of the future
As we enter the 5G era, network innovation has The implications are clear: operators need to evolve
never been greater. Over the last decade, the their networks to meet the demands of the 5G
mobile network model has trended away from era and to diversify their revenue streams to seek
asset ownership to infrastructure sharing, in an growth beyond core telecoms services.
effort to cut costs in a low-growth environment.
Network transformation for the 5G era
5G further complicates matters, bringing new ways
of operating a network with or without licensed With the commercialisation of 5G and the
spectrum. introduction of mobile network innovations such
as virtual RAN, edge networking and network
The ‘unbundled’ network breaks down entry
automation, operators’ decisions on network
barriers, which for operators means:
transformation strategies are more important than
• infrastructure competition becomes harder, not ever. Such decision-making is important to the
easier operators, their network infrastructure suppliers
and the customers who will rely on the networks of
• capex will need to be spent more selectively,
tomorrow.
particularly for small cells
• ‘frenemy’-style partnerships with adjacent sector
competitors become the norm rather than the
exception.
Source: GSMA Intelligence Network Transformation Survey 2019

Figure 19
Revenue generation and customer experience prioritised over cost-cutting as the primary
stimulus for network transformation
What is the primary goal driving your network transformation strategy? (% of respondents)
Global 39% 25% 19% 17%
APAC & China 41% 26% 21% 13%

Americas 28% 32% 12% 28%
Europe 33% 22% 17% 28%
MEA 56% 17% 28%
Generating new Improving Saving on opex Saving on capex

revenues customer costs costs
experience
25
Key trends shaping
the mobile industry

Figure 20
Supporting new customers and network architectures are top priorities for RAN
investments, while backhaul and virtualisation upgrades are crucial for the core network
Top ranked priorities for 5G investment
RAN Core
1. In-building 5G coverage 1. Transport network upgrades
Asia Pacific 2. RAN automation and planning tools 2. Network security upgrades
3. New spectrum allocations 3. Virtualisation investments
1. In-building 5G coverage 1. Service core (IMS etc.) upgrades
2. NG core (service-based architecture)

Americas 2. Network densification
upgrades
3. Transport network upgrades
3. mmWave deployment
Edge computing
1. RAN automation and planning tools 1. Virtualisation investments
Europe 2. Virtual RAN/OpenRAN 2. Service core (IMS etc.) upgrades
3. New spectrum allocations 3. Network security upgrades
1. Virtual RAN/OpenRAN 1. Network security upgrades
MEA 2. New spectrum allocations 2. Virtualisation investments
3. In-building 5G coverage 3. Transport network upgrades
26
Key trends shaping
the mobile industry

Figure 21
Spectrum is the top concern for operators in the 5G era; cost and technology maturity
barriers should resolve themselves over time, while use cases are becoming clearer
What is the greatest barrier to increasing your planned network investment in 5G?
(% of respondents, multiple responses possible)
68%
64% 61%
49% 46%
Limited spectrum Infrastructure Technology Unclear use cases Consumer device

access costs immaturity costs
The search for revenue beyond the core

Over the last 10 years, the rise of the digital decade, have experienced lower revenue increases
era (signified by the launch of 4G, take-off of since 2010. Growth has largely been driven by
smartphones and emergence of digital services) mergers and acquisitions (e.g. by AT&T and Verizon
has allowed many companies in the wider tech in recent years) or organic mobile subscriber growth
and digital universes to reap the benefits of an in underpenetrated, large-scale markets (such as
expanding digital ecosystem. However, the pace China and Latin America).
and magnitude of revenue growth has varied
significantly. Apple, Amazon and Alphabet each
added $100–200 billion in revenue between 2010
and 2018, while Facebook, Alibaba and Tencent have
reached considerable scale, with revenues now at
around $50 billion. Meanwhile, mobile operators,
which had their revenue boom in the previous
27
Key trends shaping
the mobile industry
Source: Company reports, GSMA Intelligence

Figure 22
Operators have struggled to compete with the internet/tech giants in terms of revenue
growth in the digital era
Revenue (billion)
Internet/tech companies OEMs Chinese BAT trio Operators
$300
$266
$233
$250
$222
$200 $171
$137 $131
$150 $126
$109 $112
$89
$100 $53
$56 $56
$47
$50
$15
$0
Amazon
Alphabet
Microsoft
Facebook
Apple
Samsung
Huawei
Alibaba
Tencent
Baidu
AT&T
Verizon
China Mobile
Deutsche
Telekom
America Movil
2010 revenue 2010-2018 increase 2018 revenue
Note: Annual figures based on fiscal year reporting periods. Revenue increase at 2018 constant forex.
For many operators, revenue growth as a • Operators in Japan and South Korea lead in
percentage is in the low single digits, if that. As core revenue generation from adjacent services; a
telecoms revenue stagnates, a common strategy common strategy involves targetting the digital
now for major operator groups is to seek revenue consumer through a range of lifestyle and finance
growth from adjacent services. Pay TV, media, mobile commerce services.
IoT, enterprise solutions and the broader array of
• Non-telecoms services (consumer and enterprise)
digital services still only account for a minor share
are a primary growth market for Chinese
of operator revenues (10–20% for most), although
operators, with such services having generated
there are a few notable exceptions, largely enabled
a total of $22 billion in revenue in 2018 for the
by M&A activity:
three local operators, a roughly 30% year-on-year
• AT&T is the big outlier: following its acquisitions increase.
of DirecTV and Time Warner, media and
• Turkcell provides one of the broadest portfolios
entertainment accounts for around 40% of its
of digital services, offering music, publishing,
total revenue.
financial services, commerce, identity and
payments products to consumers.
28
Key trends shaping
the mobile industry
Source: Company reports, GSMA Intelligence

Figure 23
The contribution of non-telecoms services is growing slowly (AT&T aside): the challenge is
for non-telecoms revenue to grow fast enough to offset declines in core service revenues
Contribution of non-telecoms services to total revenue
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
AT&T
KT
SoftBank
Turkcell
KDDI
SK Telecom
NTT Docomo
Telstra
China Telecom
Telefónica
Telenor
Verizon
Singtel
America Movil
China Unicom
China Mobile
2017 2018
Note: Annual figures based on fiscal year reporting periods. For AT&T: last 12 months to June 2019 (to reflect 100% of WarnerMedia, fully consolidated since Q3
2018). For SoftBank: SoftBank Corp. plus Yahoo Japan
Low contributions of non-telecoms services to digitisation continues apace. The biggest challenge
total revenues do not necessarily translate to low will be finding the right balance between defending
strategic importance or focus. For many operators, core operations and exploring opportunities beyond
particularly those in developed markets, non- the core. An additional challenge will be to embrace
telecoms services are the only source of growth. a long-term organisational culture that stimulates
There is considerable potential as we enter the innovation and digital transformation.1
2020s, particularly in the enterprise space as
1. For more information, see Telco 2020: seeking growth beyond the core
29
Key trends shaping
the mobile industry
2.3
IoT: the battle is on to connect the home and workplace
Understanding the Internet of Things
• IoT describes the coordination of machines, • In the enterprise context, IoT enables new
devices and appliances, which are connected business models, which create value by
to the internet through multiple networks and connecting existing and new devices together
technologies. to establish new business processes, reduce
costs, increase business efficiency, enable
• These connected devices include everyday
greater innovation and drive improved
consumer objects and machines from across
visibility across an organisation.
different verticals. Devices generate data,
most of which is unstructured, providing • For consumers, the connectivity provided
actionable insights while creating value for by IoT can enhance quality of life. Examples
society. include energy efficiency, home security, and
fitness and well-being monitoring.
IoT connections will reach almost 25 billion globally Enterprise IoT connections will overtake consumer
by 2025, up from 12 billion in 2019. The business in 2024, and will almost triple between 2019 and
case for IoT is shifting from just connecting devices 2025 to reach 13.3 billion. This will account for just
to addressing specific problems or needs with over half of all IoT connections in 2025.
solutions to collect, process and integrate data from
Consumer IoT connections will almost double to
multiple sources, which can then be analysed to
11.4 billion in the same time frame. More and more
create value and provide actionable insight.
devices include connectivity built in by default and
interoperability within the ecosystem is increasing.
30
Key trends shaping
the mobile industry

Figure 24
There will be around 13 billion new IoT connections by 2025; smart buildings and smart
home are key growth verticals
Connections (billion)
Consumer Enterprise
1.7 24.6
0.6 0.3 0.2
1.0
1.1
3.3
0.3 0.3 0.6

1.2
2.0
12.0
2019
Smart home
Consumer electronics
Wearables
Smart vehicles
Consumer (others)
Smart buildings
Smart utilities
Smart manufacturing
Smart city
Smart retail
Smart health
Enterprise (others)
2025
Enabling home network infrastructure

Smart buildings will be the largest growth sector,
(e.g. routers and extenders) and
driven by the proliferation of connectivity across
home-security devices (e.g cameras,
enterprise assets and devices such as lighting, HVAC
alarms and locks) account for the
systems, security and automation
majority of devices
31
Key trends shaping
the mobile industry

Figure 25
$1.1 trillion in IoT revenue by 2025, with value continuing to move up the stack to platforms
IoT revenue (billion)
$1,123
With automation comes the need for

28% companies to implement sophisticated
controls and analytics.
Therefore, most of the value gain
for telcos and cloud firms supplying
enterprise clients will be in the
applications/platform layer.
The deflationary nature of connectivity
means it will shrink by half to 5% of
$343 67% total IoT revenue by 2025, meaning
that connectivity will be unsustainable
unless as part of a broader service
package.
5%
2019 2025
Professional Applications, IoT

services platforms and connectivity
services
Source: GSMA Intelligence IoT Enterprise Survey Q4 2018

Figure 26
Integration with existing technology and security concerns persist as main challenges
Which of these challenges does your organisation face in deploying IoT-based solutions?
(% of respondents)
Integrating with existing technology

47%
Security and data privacy concerns
46%
Cost of implementation
45%
A lack of in-house skills
43%
Employee/internal resistance 26%
Unclear RoI 22%
No challenges 7%
Operators could offer managed security services as part of a broader IoT contract,
relieving enterprises of the skills gap and costs to do so themselves
32
Key trends shaping
the mobile industry
Smart home spotlight: is 2020 the year smart speakers become mainstream?
The smart home concept is often portrayed as a set niche, with adoption at below 20% of households.
of devices seamlessly interconnected and controlled To date, no one has been able to integrate all
from a central point. In reality, it is closer to a web three under the same roof because of the morass
comprised of three categories: entertainment, of fragmentation and indiscriminate attitudes of
smart speakers, and appliances. Spurred by falling consumers.
prices and easy-win use cases, speakers are the
However, there are early signs that smart speakers
fastest growing category. Entertainment is still
could be at the centre of a smart home revolution in
mostly about smart TVs, while appliances (such as
2020 (see Figure 28).2
connected light bulbs and burglar alarms) are more

Figure 27
The smart home market has three tiers: China, the US and everyone else
Device ownership (% of households)
58%
35% 36%
33% 30%
29% 27%
21% 23%
16%
13% 13% 10% 12%
8% 8% 8% 7%
A smart TV A smart speaker A smart home Other smart home Smart lighting (e.g. Connected energy
security camera (e.g. safety and security Philips Hue, connected control device (e.g.
connected indoor or device (e.g smart lock, lightbulbs or LED connected thermostat,
outdoor camera) smart smoke alarm) strips) air conditioning, smart
plug or switch)
China US EU8
EU8 = France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden
2. For more information, see Future of Devices: 5G and the China effect
33
Key trends shaping
the mobile industry

Figure 28
Smart speakers show much potential, but they are still in the very early stages
% of households
Smart speaker ownership doubled in 2019 globally...
27%
21%
16%
13%
9%
5% 1% 4%
3%
EU8 US Japan
2017 2018 2019
...but uses remain rudimentary
Play music or listen to

online radio 81%
Get news/weather
updates 59%
Set reminders
or alarms 49%
Control other
home devices 34%
Order goods or
services 19%
Low-value tasks High-value tasks
34
Key trends shaping
the mobile industry
• Uptake of smart speakers has grown over the last 12 • High-value functions such as serving as a control
months to around 30% of households in the US and point for other home devices or buying goods online
15% in Europe. remain underused. This indicates a need to add more
third-party integration and the lack of integration with
• Amazon (Echo) and Google (Home) are the two
other home devices.
principal competitors in these markets. Their
strategies are to establish a stronghold in the home • The greater hurdle is AI algorithm sophistication. For
and for speakers to act as a conduit for consumers to speakers to really take off, virtual assistants need to
access their e-commerce and search ecosystems. be able to do more than execute binary commands.
• However, most consumers still only use speakers for
basic functions such as listening to music or setting
reminders.

Figure 29
Lack of value/utility is the biggest reason why people do not own a smart speaker
13%
27% Smart speakers
33% adoption
33% Unclear use case

21%
14%
Privacy and security
concerns
11% 11%
13%
7% No compatibility and/
or difficult to install
9%
19%
16%
13% Too expensive
13%
Other
20% 17% (no awareness etc.)
10%
EU8 US China
• The lack of value/utility is the greatest obstacle to new services/experiences often require more data,
smart speaker ownership. For smart speakers to which in turn has an impact on privacy and security
hit the mass market, consumers must feel feel their concerns.
lives are being made easier and that they’re not just
• Integration/compatibility is a huge challenge. Even
purchasing a gimmick.
Google and Amazon fail to generate economies
• Cheaper pricing may help, but there is a clear need of scale when linking with multiple manufacturers
for device manufacturers to offer genuinely new use (Siemens, Philips, Sony etc.), each of whom has
cases beyond what smartphones can do. However, multiple product lines in multiple countries.
35
Key trends shaping
the mobile industry
2.4
What else does the decade ahead have in store?
Figure 30 Source: GSMA Intelligence
Predictions for the next 10 years

By 2025 By 2030
One of the GAFA companies (Google, Apple, The world’s first autonomous mobile network
1. 1.
Facebook and Amazon) is broken up. becomes commercially active.
AR eye glasses reach the mass market with a Global internet penetration inflects to reach
2. 2.
form factor from at least one global OEM. 90% (50% in 2019).
5G becomes the first generation in the

Data hubs are established to facilitate public
3. history of mobile to have a bigger impact on 3.
access to commercial IoT data.
enterprise than consumers.
Private enterprise networks explode and China becomes the world’s largest mobile
4. become a battleground between telcos and 4. market by revenue (US = $247 billion, China =
cloud companies. $163 billion in 2018).
Health wearables become part of the solution

to overburdened public health systems. Over
Autonomous vehicles take hold, with 35% of
50% of people in high-income countries
5. 5. annual new car sales in the US being Level 4 by
aged 55+ acquire a connected health device
2030.
prescribed by their doctor (in 2019, this figure
was 5%).
36
Key trends shaping
the mobile industry
03
Mobile
contributing to
economic growth
and addressing
social challenges
3.1
Mobile contribution to economic growth
In 2019, mobile technologies and services generated benefit from the improvements in productivity and
4.7% of GDP across the globe – a contribution that efficiency brought about by the increased take-up
amounted to $4.1 trillion of economic value added. of mobile services.
The mobile ecosystem also supported 30 million
Further ahead, 5G technologies are expected to
jobs (directly and indirectly) and made a substantial
contribute $2.2 trillion to the global economy
contribution to the funding of the public sector, with
between 2024 and 2034. Crucial sectors such as
$490 billion raised through general taxation. By
manufacturing/utilities (particularly in China) and
2024, mobile’s contribution will grow by $820 billion
professional/financial services (especially in MENA
(approaching $5 trillion), accounting for 4.9% of
and North America) will benefit the most from the
GDP, as countries around the world increasingly
new technology.

Figure 31
The global mobile ecosystem directly generated $1.1 trillion of economic value in 2019, with
mobile operators accounting for over half
Billion, % of GDP
$640
0.7%
$140 $160
$90 $70
0.2% 0.2%
0.1% 0.1%
Infrastructure providers Mobile Device Distributors Content, applications
operators manufacturers and retailers and other services
38
Mobile contributing to
economic growth and
addressing social challenges

Figure 32
Additional indirect and productivity benefits bring the total contribution of the mobile
industry to $4.1 trillion (4.7% of GDP)
Billion, % of GDP
$2,530 $4,110
2.9%
MOBILE ECOSYSTEM
$480 4.7%
$470 0.5%
$640 0.5%
0.7%
Mobile Rest of mobile Indirect Productivity Total

operators ecosystem

Figure 33
The global mobile ecosystem directly employs 16 million people, plus another 14 million
indirectly through adjacent industries
Jobs (million)
14 30
INDIRECT
6 2 16 TOTAL
3
2
4 DIRECT
1
Infrastructure Mobile Device Distributors Distributors Content, apps
providers operators manufacturers and retailers and retailers and service
(formal) (informal) providers
Note: totals may not add up due to rounding 39

economic growth and

Figure 34
In 2019, the global mobile ecosystem contributed almost half a trillion dollars to the funding
of the public sector through general taxation
Billion
$130 $490
$80
$90
$190
Services VAT, sales Handset VAT, sales Corporate taxes Employment taxes Total
taxes and excise taxes, excise and on profits and social security
duties customs duties

Figure 35
Driven mostly by productivity gains, the global economic contribution of mobile will
increase by $820 billion by 2024
Billion
$4,760 $4,930 Total
$4,590
contribution
$4,270 $4,420
$4,110
$3,020
$2,930
$2,720 $2,820
$2,620
$2,530
$550 $570
$500 $510 $530
$480
$1,150 $1,190 $1,240 $1,280 $1,340

$1,100
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Direct Indirect Productivity
40
economic growth and
Source: GSMA and TMG

Figure 36
5G will contribute $2.2 trillion to the global economy between 2024 and 2034:
Europe and North America stand to benefit the most
Contribution
100%
$2,236 $657 $484 $466 $423 $91 $52 $34 $29 between
2024 & 2034
(billion)
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
World North Europe China Asia Pacific Latin MENA CIS Sub-
America America Saharan
Africa
Manufacturing Professional Public ICT and trade Agriculture

and utilities and financial services and mining
Services
3.2
Expanding the benefits of mobile internet
Mobile internet access continues to grow. In 2019, Those that are not connected can be split into
260 million people connected to the mobile internet two groups: the ‘uncovered’ and the ‘covered but
for the first time, bringing the total to just under not connected’. The ‘uncovered’ are those with
3.8 billion people globally (49% of the population). no access to a mobile broadband network (3G
However, this growth has not been equally and above): this is the coverage gap. The ‘covered
distributed. While three quarters of the population but not connected’ are those who live within the
are connected to the mobile internet in North footprint of a mobile broadband network but are
America and Europe, penetration is only around not using mobile internet services: this is the usage
40% across Asia Pacific and MENA, and as low as gap.
26% in Sub-Saharan Africa.
41
economic growth and

Figure 37
State of global mobile internet connectivity by region, 2019

Base: Total population
Global
49% 42% 9% Connected Usage gap Coverage

gap
North America Europe CIS Asia Pacific
74% 76% 59% 42%
24% 24% 35% 54%
1% 1% 6% 5%
26%
55% 49% 62%
40% 26% 41% 37%
5% Sub-Saharan Africa 51% 1%
Latin America Greater China

9%
MENA
42
economic growth and
The coverage gap halved between 2015 and 2019, (270 million) of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa.
falling from 18% to 9% of the global population. This Individuals living in remote and sparsely populated
equates to almost 1 billion additional people covered areas in particular are less likely to be covered by
by mobile broadband networks during this period. mobile broadband networks, but for economic (not
However, as of the end of 2019, 670 million people technical) reasons.
remain outside of mobile broadband coverage, 40%
Source: GSMA Intelligence3

Figure 38
Covering ‘not spots’ is an economic, not technical, challenge

Annualised cost of mobile coverage sites in rural and remote locations (relative to urban), by major component
Remote deployment 61% 12% 41% 21%

+35%
more expensive than
urban deployment
Rural deployment 58% 12% 38% 10%

+18%
more expensive than
urban deployment
Cost of urban
Urban deployment 48% 12% 30% 10% deployment
Tower and civil Active network Power Backhaul

works costs
Despite the progress outlined above, the fact The GSMA Mobile Connectivity Index4 measures the
that the usage gap is more than four times larger performance of 165 countries (representing 99% of
than the coverage gap emphasises that factors the global population) against these key enablers
other than just infrastructure are holding back the of mobile internet adoption. The tool shows how
adoption of mobile internet, namely affordability, countries have progressed over the years in their
consumer readiness, and availability of locally journeys to becoming fully digital economies and
relevant content and services. highlights the regions in which specific enablers
need the most development.
3. How Innovation Can Drive Rural Connectivity, GSMA, 2019

4. Available at www.mobileconnectivityindex.com
43
economic growth and
Source: GSMA
Figure 39
Asia Pacific and CIS have made the most progress thanks to significant improvements in
infrastructure and content and services
GSMA Mobile Connectivity Index scores
76 75
5 5
65 61
58 6 56 59 58
6
7 7 8 7
38
Improvement 71 70 7
in 2018 59 55
51 49 51 51
32
2015 score
(average)
World Greater Europe North Latin MENA Asia CIS Sub-

China America America Pacific Saharan
Africa
Infrastructure +13 +9 +11 +13 +16 +14 +15 +13 +13
Affordability +3 +3 +1 +3 +0 +5 +5 +4 +4
Consumer readiness +2 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +2 +1 +3
Content & services +6 +7 +7 +5 +4 +6 +7 +8 +6
The barriers to mobile internet connectivity – • The infrastructure enabler has grown strongly,
infrastructure, affordability, consumer readiness, and fuelled by the expansion of 4G coverage and
availability of locally relevant content and services mobile broadband coverage in Sub-Saharan
– are particularly prominent in low- and middle- Africa. Network quality has also improved
income countries (LMICs),5 where over two thirds of substantially; the vast majority of countries
the unconnected population live. As highlighted in now have average broadband speeds that allow
the 2019 edition of the Mobile Connectivity Index,6 reasonable quality internet browsing (greater
there have been several important developments in than 2 Mbps).
global mobile connectivity:
5. Countries are classified over time according to the World Bank Country and Lending Groups
6. The State of Mobile Internet Connectivity 2019, GSMA Intelligence, 2019
44
economic growth and
• While mobile data has become more affordable • Followed by the Middle East and North Africa,
across all regions, device affordability remains Latin America generally has much higher scores
a significant barrier to mobile internet access in for content and services than other regions. In
LMICs, particularly for the poorest 20% of the part, this reflects the fact that most countries
population. in these regions have a widely shared spoken
language, presenting a strong opportunity for
• Lack of skills and a large gender gap are major
localised internet products or services. However,
obstacles to mobile internet adoption in South
Latin American countries have the lowest average
Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East
score for online security.
and North Africa. For example, adult literacy is
63% in Sub-Saharan Africa and 68% in South Asia • Social media and networking have heavily
compared to 95% in East Asia and the Pacific. contributed to LMICs experiencing considerable
Measuring digital skills across countries is also improvements for content and services across all
a challenge because of a lack of high-quality regions, particularly in East Asia and the Pacific.
comparable data. Social media penetration on mobile doubled in
LMICs from 20% in 2014 to 40% in 2018.
• Mobile penetration, which is the main driver of
consumer readiness, has increased across all • The proportion of mobile applications being
regions, but low levels of mobile phone ownership developed in LMICs has risen significantly.
are limiting mobile internet adoption, especially in Content developers in LMICs were responsible
South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, where mobile for 25% of active mobile applications in 2018,
penetration rates are 53% and 45% respectively. compared to 15% in 2014.
3.3
Mobile delivering social impact
With more than 5 billion unique subscribers In addition, mobile has had an enormous impact on
worldwide, and more than 7 billion people covered financial inclusion, which cuts across multiple SDGs,
by a mobile network, mobile is increasingly being including SDG 1 (No Poverty), 2 (Zero Hunger), 3
used to access an array of life-enhancing services (Good Health and Well-being), 8 (Decent Work and
that contribute to and catalyse the achievement of Economic Growth) and 10 (Reduced Inequalities).
the UN SDGs. Mobile money has helped reduce the financial
exclusion gap in low- and middle-income countries,
Globally, SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation and
with 1 billion registered accounts at the end of 2019.7
Infrastructure) remains the most impacted goal:
since 2015, an additional 900 million people have Despite the global reach of mobile, much more
been covered by a 3G network (currently 90% can be done to leverage its power and support the
global coverage), while an additional 2.2 billion delivery of the SDG 2030 targets. Crucial to this
have been covered by a 4G network (now 80% will be helping people realise the full benefits of
global coverage). This underscores the role of using mobile and mobile internet services in terms
mobile networks in providing critical infrastructure of accessing health information, public services and
to spur inclusive and sustainable development, as digital payments, both in developed and developing
well as greater innovation. Meanwhile, the industry countries. New technologies that are supported by
achieved its most improved score on SDG 4 (Quality IoT also need to achieve scale if mobile operators
Education), which is also the second most impacted are to maximise their impact on the SDGs – for
goal: 1.4 billion mobile subscribers use their phone example, solutions in smart cities that can reduce
to improve their education or that of their children – pollution, and smart buildings and homes that can
an increase of 140 million users since 2017. increase energy efficiency.
7. State of the Industry Report on Mobile Money 2019, GSMA

45
economic growth and
Source: GSMA
Figure 40
Rank of SDG impact scores by region, 2018
Asia Pacific CIS Europe Latin America
Highest
Lowest
Most improved
Least improved
Growth in the adoption of Increased cellular IoT Operators in Europe Latin American operators
mobile financial services utility connections enable continue to improve have played an important
in the region promotes companies to better the quality of their role in improving gender
financial inclusion and understand and maintain infrastructure through equality through their
economic empowerment. their infrastructure network upgrades, with operational activities and
network, reducing waste high levels of coverage industry collaboration,
Comment Literacy rates are growing and improving efficiency. already achieved. such as through the
because of a higher GSMA’s We Care
usage of mobile to view Consumers are More individuals are campaign.
educational resources, increasingly using phones monitoring their health
read the news and access to improve their health through wearable devices, There has been greater
government services. or that of their family such as fitness trackers. take-up and use among
through mobile health subscribers of life-
applications. enhancing services, such
as mobile education and
health applications.
46
economic growth and
MENA North America Sub-Saharan Africa
Highest
Lowest
Most improved
Least improved
The deployment of IoT solutions More operators in North Expansion in network coverage
to enable smart cities and smart America are putting in place in Sub-Saharan Africa provides
vehicles reduces the adverse management systems, metrics more individuals with a tool to
environmental impact of cities. and controls to improve communicate and a platform to
performance with respect to access transformative services.
Comment Improvements to the quality climate change mitigation.
and resilience of networks Rising mobile and mobile
enable operators to maintain Improved IoT take-up drives money adoption fuels the
communications services in the efficient use of resources popularity of mobile-enabled
disaster-stricken areas. in industry, such as smart solar pay-as-you-go solutions,
manufacturing and smart which enable access to clean
utilities. energy.
Despite an improved impact across all 17 SDGs in economy; improving resilience to the effects of
2018, the mobile industry needs to act fast to fulfil climate change; and reducing emissions and driving
its commitment by 2030.8 energy efficiency.
Deep dive on SDG 13: Climate Action Helping to make net-zero a reality
Climate change threatens sustainable development Mobile technology’s biggest impact on climate
everywhere. Collaboration on a global scale is vital change is from its ability to enable other sectors
to mitigating the catastrophic impacts of the world’s of the economy to reduce their greenhouse gas
rising temperatures. While the mobile industry is (GHG) emissions. The mobile industry achieves
not the largest contributor of carbon emissions this by providing connectivity for digital solutions
compared to other sectors, it can be an important that reduce energy use, travel and transport, or
part of the solution. It can do this in three ways: otherwise lower GHG emissions (examples shown in
enabling the global transition towards a zero-carbon Figure 41).
8. See 2019 Mobile Industry Impact Report: Sustainable Development Goals

47
economic growth and
The impact of mobile-based solutions is closely • Deutsche Telekom calculated that the “positive
linked to improvements in connectivity, and CO2 effects” it facilitated for its customers in
operators’ networks offer a scalable, secure and Europe were 21% higher than its total emissions in
standardised way to connect assets across a variety 2018 (an enablement factor of 1.21).12
of services in an economically sustainable manner.
The mobile industry, along with the ICT sector, will
In recent years, an increasing number of mobile
be one of the first industries to develop its own
operators have been setting ambitious enablement
sector pathway to net-zero GHG emissions by 2050.
or avoided emissions impact goals. Many have
As a starting point on this journey, in 2019 a group
already been reporting good progress on enabling
of operators – which together account for more
GHG emissions reductions through their mobile
than two thirds of mobile connections globally –
products and services:
committed to disclosing climate impacts, energy
• Having joined the Net Positive Project,9 AT&T use and GHG emissions. The next phase will be the
is seeking to harness the power of mobile development of a decarbonisation pathway for the
technology to enable GHG emissions reductions mobile industry aligned with the Science Based
that are 10 times greater than its own by 2025. Targets initiative (SBTi).13
At the end of 2018, AT&T enabled GHG savings
equivalent to approximately double the carbon
This goes hand in hand with advancing mobile
footprint of its operations.10
technology innovations in areas such as big data
• By 2025, for each ton of CO2 it emits, Telefónica and IoT that can enable energy-efficient and
aims to avoid 10 tons of CO2 through its environmental solutions across multiple sectors,
services. In 2018, Telefónica calculated that the including transport, manufacturing, agriculture and
emissions that its customers avoided through energy.
“digitalisation” were 1.15 times the sum of its
scope 1 and 2 emissions (i.e. direct and indirect
emissions).11
9. https://www.netpositiveproject.org/
10. Progress to 2025 – 10x Goal Update, AT&T, 2019
11. For more detailed descriptions, see Consolidated Management Report 2018
12. See 2018 Corporate Responsibility Report
13. https://sciencebasedtargets.org/
48
economic growth and
Source: GSMA14
Figure 41
How mobile is enabling a low-carbon future
Smart traffic management: This enables more Remote working: Smartphones and mobile
efficient traffic flows, thereby easing congestion and connectivity enable remote working and collaboration,
lowering vehicle pollution. Verizon is using intelligent reducing the need for travel and therefore reducing
asphalt, with embedded sensors that monitor traffic GHG emissions. For AT&T, its mobile work tools and
flow, permitting cities to adjust traffic signals to reduce virtual collaboration technology represented its largest
commuting times and carbon emissions. source of technology-enabled carbon reduction in
2018. Desk-based video conferencing using AT&T voice
Smart urban lighting: Intelligent street lighting can and data connectivity reduce the need for travel.
lower electricity demand by switching off when
not required. Using IoT technology, in the city of Sharing economy: Ride-sharing, car-sharing,
Guadalajara, Spain, Vodafone connected 13,500 LED bike-sharing and other exchange activities such as
lights to a central management system, reducing street finding new owners for unwanted goods or offering
lighting energy consumption by 68%. unused space for accommodation help to reduce
travel emissions or emissions from manufacturing
Smart parking: Mobile apps help drivers find available new goods. In addition, smartphones can provide
parking spaces, reducing congestion and GHG remote access to personal services such as mobile
emissions. Deutsche Telekom’s Park and Joy app banking and smart home control, reducing energy
shortens the time spent looking for a parking spot. In consumption.
2018, users could search around 30,000 parking spots
in 45 cities with the app. Smart grids: M2M technology is important for the
functioning of smart grids to actively manage and
Smart logistics: Mobile connectivity allows the monitor the generation and distribution of electricity.
collection of vehicle data. This can then be used for This enables greater amounts of renewable energy
optimisation of route planning, load optimisation, and generation to be connected to the grid, as the greater
improvement of driver behaviour. Smart vehicle or decentralisation and intermittence of renewables
fleet management solutions reduce fuel consumption needs different and more distributed management
and associated GHG emissions. AT&T-enabled wireless systems. Vodafone is helping utilities deliver electricity
fleet management technology allows fleet managers to sustainably and efficiently through remote data
use data to more efficiently deploy and route vehicles to management and monitoring capabilities, automation
help reduce delivery and idle time, improve mileage and and control.
reduce fuel costs.
Connected health: Mobile solutions are expanding
Building energy management systems: access to medical and health services. Using solutions
Machine-to-machine (M2M) connectivity allows for such as remote patient monitoring, patients can reduce
the automation and monitoring of building systems the number of trips to see a medical provider, saving
remotely – for example, allowing systems to be time and reducing fuel usage and hospital emissions. In
switched on and off depending on occupancy or 2018, Verizon avoided 147,023 tonnes of CO2e through
temperature. It can also apply analytical tools for remote patient monitoring and reduced travel and
predictive maintenance and more sophisticated days in hospital.
building control policies, such as adjusting heating in
line with the weather forecast and historical data. For Precision agriculture: This refers to the combination
example, Telefónica’s big data service, LUCA, optimises of monitoring crops with satellites, thermal imaging
energy consumption and forecasts future energy and sensors. Data collected can help farmers precisely
consumption costs. optimise yields and reduce fertiliser and pesticide
use, as well as improving water efficiency in irrigation,
saving GHG emissions. For example, Telefónica is using
big data to support small and medium-sized cattle
ranchers in Ecuador.
14. 2019 Mobile Industry Impact Report: Sustainable Development Goals, GSMA, 2019 49
economic growth and
Improving resilience to climate change

Climate change has made weather patterns harder content via mobile agriculture information services
to predict and extreme events (such as droughts (e.g. Ooredoo Myanmar’s Site Pyo and Airtel’s 321
and floods) more frequent and severe, resulting service in Malawi) is highly valuable to smallholder
in famine, hunger and displacement. The industry farmers. Meanwhile, Orange Business Services and
has an important role to play in adapting and Dacom’s smart agriculture service leverages big
responding to the effects of climate change. For data analysis to allow farmers to better understand
example, mobile networks are facilitating access and adjust to climate change.
to information and coordinating assistance before,
The industry is also increasingly bridging the data
during and after climate-related emergencies. These
gap in weather monitoring and forecasting. For
efforts are often supported by operators’ in-house
example, low-cost connected weather stations are
disaster response teams,15 while mobile technology
being deployed at base stations for access to power,
has rapidly become an attractive delivery channel
while mobile networks’ microwave-links data is
for many forms of aid.16
being utilised for accurate rainfall measurements.
Mobile is also supporting and driving further New mobile financial services, including digital
innovations in climate adaptation. It plays a key weather index insurance,17 are also emerging
role in the dissemination of valuable weather to strengthen the climate resilience of rural
information, complementing broadcast media. populations.
Especially in the face of a changing climate, weather
15. For example, the data analytics initiative by AT&T’s response team. “AT&T dives deep into climate data”, GreenBiz, April 2019
16. Partnership Guidelines: Building effective partnerships between MNOs and NGOs in complex environments and crises, GSMA, 2016
17. ACRE in Kenya by Syngenta Foundation in partnership with seed company Seedco and MNO Safaricom, and EcoFarmer in Zimbabwe, a partnership between Econet Wireless and Mercy
Corps, are early examples of mobile weather index insurance products. See mAgri: Weather forecasting and monitoring: Mobile solutions for climate resilience
50
economic growth and
Driving energy efficiency

The mobile sector’s annual emissions total Compared to the global carbon footprint of mobile
approximately 220 MtCO2e,18 representing about networks themselves, the level of avoided emissions
0.4% of total global emissions. For many operators, enabled by mobile communications technologies is
the bulk of energy consumption (approximately 10 times greater.
90%), and hence GHG emissions, within their
The majority of these avoided emissions resulted
own operations stems from the deployment and
from a decrease in electricity, gas, and fuel
running of networks. Mobile operators are striving
consumption, either through the use of IoT
to minimise their own climate impact, embarking on
technologies or changes in behaviour stemming
an ambitious journey towards decarbonisation, but
from the personal use of smartphones.
delivering a zero-carbon future will require timely
and effective action in a number of areas: The majority of avoided emissions from IoT
technologies are primarily in:
1. Energy efficiency: As mobile usage continues
to grow at pace, so does the demand for energy, • buildings e.g. building management systems and
particularly from network infrastructure. With smart meters
the risk of energy cost inflation in the future, • transport e.g. facilitating the use of charging
operators’ targets for reducing energy use and points and, through telematics, optimising routes/
GHG emissions are intrinsically linked to the vehicle fuel efficiency
implementation of energy efficiency practices.
• manufacturing e.g. storage and inventory
2. Renewable energy: Progressing towards zero management
carbon necessitates the industry to make big
strides in its migration to renewable energy • the energy sector e.g. smart grids.
sources, including wind, solar, biomass and The use of smartphones helps to avoid emissions by:
hydropower. Against a backdrop of growing
mobile data traffic, the switch to renewables also • reducing travel for commuting and leisure
makes good business sense. • increasing the use of public transport with apps
3. Value-chain emissions: Mobile operators have that provide real-time updates
the potential, and responsibility, to positively • enabling accommodation-sharing for short stays
influence emissions levels across the value chain. and holidays
This means working with suppliers and customers
• reducing travel by use of mobile shopping and
to reduce emissions created in the production of
mobile banking apps.
goods (e.g. handsets and network equipment)
and in the use of products by customers (e.g. the
electricity used when charging mobile devices
and other equipment).
18. Includes the energy to operate the networks, the embodied

emissions of the networks and the emissions of handsets 51
economic growth and
Source: GSMA
Figure 42
Avoided carbon emissions enabled by mobile technology by category in 2018
39% Smart working,

living & health
3% Smart agriculture
10% Accomodation sharing
10% Smart buildings
10% Audio conferencing 7% Smart energy
7% Video-calling with
friends and families 11% Smart manufacturing
5% Mobile shopping 30% Smart transport and cities
2% Mobile banking 6% Other
3% Ride sharing
2% Working from home

4% Smart logistics -
efficient routing & fleet
3% Other
management
7% Usability of
public transport 5% Fleet vehicle driver
behaviour improvement
5% Sea fleet - efficient routing
52
economic growth and
Digitisation is expected to disrupt all parts of the emissions reductions while improving quality of
economy over the next decade. If suitable policy is life and supporting economic growth. By 2025, the
implemented and sufficient investment is received, growth in smartphone users and the number of IoT
digitisation has the potential to be a key driver connections could result in a further doubling of the
of low-carbon development. Mobile network– avoided emissions enabled by mobile technologies
enabled technologies form an important part of the seen in 2018.19
decarbonisation solution, as they facilitate rapid
19. For more information, see The Enablement Effect: The impact of mobile communications technologies on carbon emission reductions
53
economic growth and
04
Policies to
accelerate
digital
development
Mobile broadband generates vast benefits for However, the full potential of mobile technologies
society and the economy: innovative companies cannot be realised without the active participation
design and sell new connected products and of governments and regulatory authorities, working
services, creating jobs and economic value; citizens together with the private sector to enable vibrant,
have more choice and enjoyment as a result competitive markets and to help shape the digital
of internet-enabled mobile devices; and entire environment citizens want.
industries are being transformed by new tools and
processes made possible through connectivity.
Source: GSMA
Figure 43
Vital areas for progressive policies to accelerate digital development
Network performance and reach
Spectrum policy for the 5G era
Capitalising on the 5G opportunity
Ensuring consumer trust
55
Policies to accelerate
digital development
Network performance and reach

Mobile connectivity, which relies on physical to drive down the cost of rural coverage, but
infrastructure and access to radio spectrum, many ideas are still in the design phase and
requires continuous investment by operators have yet to be commercially trialled.
to keep up with demand and provide the
The priority for a growing number of
service consumers and businesses expect.
policymakers is to expand the reach of
In cities, mobile networks will increasingly
commercially-sustainable, next-generation
consist of small cells — which means
networks. Governments at all levels —
deploying antennas far more densely across
municipal, local, regional and national — can
the urban landscape. The cost of network
take steps to support network deployment
densification is a challenge for all operators,
and expansion. As 4G networks continue
and the process of securing antenna sites and
to spread and 5G technologies begin to
planning permission can delay deployment
take root in urban areas, authorities need
and hold back new commercial service
to find ways to simplify and standardise
offerings.
planning procedures and regulations for site
In rural areas, gaps in mobile broadband acquisition, colocation and upgrades of base
coverage persist because of economic stations and small cells. They should offer
reasons. Rural infrastructure can be a reasonable expectation of approval for
significantly more expensive to deploy as that voluntary network-sharing deals, but avoid
in urban areas, while revenue opportunities implementing mandated sharing agreements.
are as much as 10 times lower due to the They should also adopt policies that reduce
smaller population, making it a potentially costs (e.g. taxation and fees) for operators
risky or unprofitable proposition for while spurring investment.
operators. The mobile industry is innovating
Spectrum policy for the 5G era

Without access to sufficient radio spectrum in 50 GHz (in designated countries). With these
suitable frequencies, operators cannot deliver bands secured for mobile, a global ecosystem
the connectivity people need and expect. For can now begin to develop equipment, devices
5G, operators require a significant amount and services that take advantage of these
of new harmonised mobile spectrum, ideally frequencies. As countries license spectrum
80–100 MHz of contiguous spectrum per for 5G services, governments and regulators
operator in prime 5G mid-bands and around 1 should avoid inflating 5G spectrum prices
GHz per operator in mmWave bands. For 5G (e.g. setting high auction reserve prices), as
to reach everyone, coverage spectrum in the they risk limiting network investment and
bands below 1 GHz is also needed. driving up the cost of services. In addition,
regulators should not set aside spectrum
At the 2019 World Radiocommunication
(e.g. for vertical industries) that has been
Conference (WRC), two new bands for
identified for mobile; alternative approaches,
internationally harmonised mobile service
such as leasing access from mobile operators,
were identified: 26 GHz and 40 GHz. Two
can achieve the same purpose without
other frequency bands received mobile
jeopardising efficient use of this limited
identification: 66 GHz (expected to be
resource.
considered for unlicensed use by mobile) and
56
digital development
Capitalising on the 5G opportunity

5G will drive future innovation and economic combination of these technologies will have
growth, delivering greater societal benefit a large positive impact, spawning innovations
than any previous mobile generation and for consumers and enterprises defined
allowing new digital services and business by highly contextualised, on-demand and
models to thrive. Many countries have already personalised experiences. To propel 5G into
launched 5G, but widespread commercial commercial use, governments and regulators
5G services are expected in the post-2020 must play their part and implement policies
period, which will mark the start of the that encourage advanced technologies to be
5G era. 5G is developing in parallel with applied across all economic sectors.
rapid advancements in both AI and IoT; the
Ensuring consumer trust

Erosion of trust in digital services was a makes sense for their businesses and secures
major concern in 2019, which saw record positive outcomes for society.
levels of data breaches and disinformation
Rapid progress in digital technologies is
campaigns, as well as startling revelations
not a guarantee. Operators in every country
about the monetisation of consumers’
face obligations and constraints that slow
personal information by internet companies.
down investment in mobile networks. To
Governments are implementing new or
advance the mobile ecosystem and the digital
revised rules to ensure their citizens are
economy overall, governments should strive,
protected when they engage with digital
as much as possible, to lighten the regulatory
technologies. Rules for the protection,
load on the industry. When the business
management and processing of consumers’
environment for mobile operators is less
personal data vary greatly by sector,
costly and more flexible, the performance and
technology and country. This includes
reach of mobile service expands, the pace of
organisations’ ability to transfer data within
innovation increases and users’ confidence in
and between countries. For data privacy
the digital ecosystem is strengthened.
laws to be successful, they must provide
effective protection for individuals while
allowing organisations the freedom to
operate, innovate and comply in a way that
57
digital development
gsma.com
GSMA HEAD OFFICE
Floor 2
The Walbrook Building
25 Walbrook
London EC4N 8AF
United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0)20 7356 0600
Fax: +44 (0)20 7356 0601

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The

1 The mobile market in numbers 10

2 Key trends shaping the mobile industry 18

3 Mobile contributing to economic growth 37

4 Policies to accelerate digital development 54

4G rules, but 5G is ramping up

Growth is becoming harder to see, but it’s still there

The benefits of mobile are reaching further than ever

Policies remain essential for accelerating digital development

MOBILE INTERNET USERS 2019 2025

Excluding licensed cellular IoT

SMARTPHONES 2019 2025

4G 2019 2025 5G 2025

MOBILE INDUSTRY CONTRIBUTION TO GDP 2019 2024

PUBLIC FUNDING 2019 EMPLOYMENT 2019

Asia Pacific TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION

CIS TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION

12% 2% 2025 2019 2025

Europe TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION

34% 1% 2025 2019 2025

Greater China TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION

47% 2025 2019 2025

Latin America TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION

7% 5% 2025 2019 2025

MENA TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION

6% 2025 2019 2025

North America TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION

48% 1% 6% 2025 2019 2025

Sub-Saharan Africa TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION

2019 SMARTPHONE ADOPTION

Milestones for the mobile industry

4 billion 5 billion mobile

mobile internet internet

1 billion 5G 1.8 billion 5G

5.2 billion 7.1 billion

connections 75% connections

Source: GSMA Intelligence

Source: GSMA Intelligence

Mobile 5G is now commercially available from 46 operators in 24 markets worldwide;

*As of January 2020

Source: GSMA Intelligence

Global average 20.1% 5G connections in 2025

Developed Asia 50% 181m

Source: GSMA Intelligence

1.2 billion more people will be using mobile internet by 2025

World Europe North Greater CIS Latin Asia MENA Sub-

Source: GSMA Intelligence

Four in five connections globally will be smartphones by 2025; smartphone connections in

83% 91% 89%

Source: GSMA Intelligence Consumer Insights Survey 2019

Digital engagement is rising, particularly in financial/commerce services; Latin America and

Developed Asia Developing Asia Europe & CIS Latin America

YoY YoY YoY YoY

Communication 58% -3 pp 68% +10 pp 63% +1 pp 79% +9 pp

Information 34% -2 pp 18% +3 pp 36% +1 pp 42% +9 pp

Entertainment 31% -1 pp 25% +3 pp 30% +3 pp 40% +6 pp

MENA North America Sub-Saharan Africa

YoY YoY YoY

Communication 78% +3 pp 60% - 67% +5 pp

Information 49% +7 pp 35% +1 pp 19% -

Entertainment 43% +4 pp 38% +5 pp 22% -2 pp

Source: Ericsson, GSMA Intelligence

7.5 10 7.6 8.3 9.8