FMCG SALES TREND

DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Data updated W/C 2 March 2020 – SCANTRACK
(SCANTRACK = ALL COOPERATED CHAIN MODERN TRADE)

Prepared by Retailer Vertical Team

24 March 2020

Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not
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 PUBLIC
SOURCE

COVID-19 TIMELINE
Indonesia COVID-19 case was announced on 2nd March of 2020 slightly behind COVID-19 case in
China and Global
COVID-19 GLOBAL MAP INDONESIA COVID-19 DATA
2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.

Credit : WHO Credit : WIKIPEDIA

Source : https://scitechdaily.com/coronavirus-spreads-to-mexico-as-confirmed-covid-19- Source :
cases-tops-85000/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Indonesia
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Source: bps.go.id
2
 NIELSEN’S SIX CONSUMER BEHAVIOR THRESHOLDS OF
COVID-19 CONCERN
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6
PROACTIVE HEALTH- REACTIVE HEALTH PANTRY QUARANTINED LIVING RESTRICTED LIVING A NEW
2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.

MINDED BUYING MANAGEMENT PREPARATION PREPARATION LIVING NORMAL

CONSUMER BEHAVIOR SHIFTS

Interest rises in Prioritize products Pantry stockpiling of Increased online Severely restricted People return to daily
products that support essential to virus shelf-stable foods and shopping, a decline in shopping trips, online routines (work, school,
overall maintenance containment, health a broader assortment store visits, rising out- fulfillment is limited, etc.) but operate with a
renewed cautiousness
of health and and public safety. E.g. of health-safety of-stocks, strains on price concerns rise as
about health. Permanent
wellness. face masks products; spike in the supply chain. limited stock shifts in supply chain,
store visits; growing availability impacts the use of e-commerce
basket sizes. pricing in some cases. and hygiene practices.

COVID-19 EVENT MARKERS

Minimal localized First local Multiple cases of local Localized COVID-19 Mass cases of COVID- COVID-19 quarantines
cases of COVID-19 transmission with no transmission and emergency actions. 19. Communities lift beyond
generally linked to an link to other location + multiple deaths linked Percentage of people ordered into lockdown. region/country’s most-
affected hotspots and
arrival from another first COVID-19 related to COVID-19. diagnosed continues
life starts to return to
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infected country. death/s. to increase. normal.

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3
 SCANTRACK

THE TIMELINE DEFINITION

3 main timeline are identified to observe how consumers spending is changed during this issue.
Consumer is showing much higher reaction during COVID-19 local
TOTAL 111 CAT VALUE % GROWTH vs YA
TIMELINE DEFINITION
TOTAL SCANTRACK
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PRE- COVID-19 COVID-19

COVID-19 GLOBAL LOCAL

8-11 Jan 2020 23 Jan 2020 onwards 2 Mar 2020

• First death of • Cases sprouting globally • First
COVID-19 in • Preventive buying confirmed
China. case in
• First case Indonesia
outside China • Reactive
(Thailand buying

-3 weeks- -6 weeks- -1 week-

Pre-COVID-19 Global COVID-19 COVID-19 LOCAL

JAN FEB MAR

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4
 SCANTRACK

AS INDONESIA CONFIRMED ITS FIRST CASE, COOKING

AND PHARMA PRODUCTS INCREASED MOST IN GROWTH
% Value Growth vs YA | Total Key Accounts | 111 CAT by Sector

COOKING PERSONAL
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DRY FOOD INDULGENCE BEVERAGES BREAKFAST HOME CARE PHARMA

SEASONING CARE

Contributions to Total 111 categories

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15 14 14 8 4 20 7 2
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Source: ScanTrack.
Growth at COVID-19 Local stage will be updated when available. 5
 SCANTRACK
AMONG TOP 10 FOOD CATEGORIES, COOKING OIL AND
INSTANT NOODLE EXPERIENCED HIGHER GROWTH IN
COVID-19 LOCAL STAGE
% Value Growth vs YA | Total Key Accounts | Top 10 Food Categories
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POWDER COOKING INSTANT MINERAL

BISCUIT LIQUID MILK SNACK ICE-CREAM TEA-RTD CHOCOLATE
MILK OIL NOODLES WATER
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Important Note:.
As the disease progresses in Indonesia, categories
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6
 SCANTRACK
HYGIENE-RELATED PRODUCTS AND VITAMINS GREW THE
MOST AT COVID-19 LOCAL PHASE IN TOP 10 NON-FOOD
CATEGORIES
% Value Growth vs YA | Total Key Accounts | Top 10 Non-Food Categories
2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.

BABY FACIAL
SKINCARE TOILET SOAP COLOGNE SHAMPOO DETERGENT TOOTHPASTE VITAMIN INSECTICIDE
DIAPERS TISSUE
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Important Note:.
As the disease progresses in Indonesia, categories
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listed here may change accordingly.

7
 SCANTRACK
HYGIENE-RELATED CATEGORIES AND SHELF-STABLE
FOOD HAD HIGHEST GROWTH GAP IN COVID-19 LOCAL
STAGE
% Value Growth vs YA | Total Key Accounts | 10 Selected Categories with Biggest Growth Gap After COVID-19 Local
2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.

DRY
HAND LIQUID LIQUID CANNED HOUSEHOLD
WET TISSUE VITAMIN NOODLES & MARGARINE SYRUP
SANITIZER HANDSOAP ANTISEPTIC FISH & MEAT TISSUE
VER
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Important Note:.
As the disease progresses in Indonesia, categories
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listed here may change accordingly.

Source: ScanTrack 8
SELECTED CATEGORY
REACTION DURING COVID-19
PANDEMIC
Data updated W/C 2 March 2020 – SCANTRACK
(SCANTRACK = ALL COOPERATED CHAIN MODERN TRADE)

Prepared by Retailer Vertical Team

24 March 2020

Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not
distribute.
 SCANTRACK

LIQUID HAND SOAP SALES GREW AT 285% WHEN

INDONESIA CONFIRMED ITS FIRST CASE OF COVID-19
Liquid Hand Soap | Weekly Value Sales Growth Trend vs. Year-ago | Total Modern Trade Key Accounts
Reactive Health
Category Growth Management
Pre-COVID-19 Global
2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.

+0%
COVID-19 Global
2 Mar
2020
+16% First
COVID-19 Local confirmed
case in
8-11 Jan +285% Indonesia

2020
First death 23 Jan 2020
of COVID- onwards
19 in Cases sprouting
China. globally
First case
outside Proactive Health-Minded Buying
China
(Thailand).

Pre-COVID Global COVID Global COVID-19 Local Case

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JAN FEB MAR

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Source: ScanTrack 10
 SCANTRACK

LIQUID ANTISEPTICS WENT QUICKLY INTO

REACTIVE HEALTH MANAGEMENT STAGE
Liquid Antiseptics| Weekly Value Sales Growth Trend vs. Year-ago | Total Modern Trade Key Accounts
Reactive Health
Management
Category Growth
2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.

Pre-COVID-19 Global

+26% 2 Mar
COVID-19 Global
2020
First
+32% confirmed
case in
COVID-19 Local Indonesia
8-11 Jan +233%
2020 23 Jan 2020
First death onwards
of COVID- Cases sprouting
19 in globally Proactive Health-Minded Buying
China.
First case
outside
China
(Thailand).

Pre-COVID Global COVID Global COVID-19 Local Case

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JAN FEB MAR

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Source: ScanTrack 11
 SCANTRACK
ALMOST 4X INCREASE IN VALUE FOR HAND SANITIZERS
SALES
Hand Sanitizers | Weekly Value Sales Growth Trend vs. Year-ago | Total Modern Trade Key Accounts

Category Growth Reactive Health Management

Pre-COVID-19 Global
Growth 2 Mar
+1%
2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.

Stabilization.
2020
COVID-19 Global Potential Cause:
First
23 Jan 2020 Indonesia still
+218% onwards reported 0 case, confirmed
case in
COVID-19 Local Cases sprouting also OOS
Indonesia
globally
+199%
8-9 Jan 2020
First death of
COVID-19 in China. Proactive
First case outside Health-Minded
China (Thailand). Buying

Reactive Health
Management

COVID-19
COVID Global
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Pre-COVID Global
Local Case
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Source: ScanTrack 12
 SCANTRACK

VITAMIN SALES INCREASED SHARPLY AFTER FIRST

CASE WAS CONFIRMED IN INDONESIA
Vitamin | Weekly Value Sales Growth Trend vs. Year-ago | Total Modern Trade Key Accounts

Category Growth Reactive Health Management

23 Jan 2020 Pre-COVID-19 Global
2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.

onwards
+14% 2 Mar
Cases sprouting
COVID-19 Global 2020
globally First
8-9 Jan 2020 +5% confirmed
case in
First death of COVID-19
Indonesia
COVID-19 in China. Local
First case outside +81%
China (Thailand).

Proactive Health-
Minded Buying Proactive Health-Minded Buying

COVID-19
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Pre-COVID Global COVID Global

Local Case
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Source: ScanTrack 13
 SCANTRACK

CANNED FISH AND MEAT GROWTH INCREASED AS FIRST

CASE OF COVID-19 WAS ANNOUNCED IN INDONESIA
Canned Fish and Meat | Weekly Value Sales Growth Trend vs. Year-ago | Total Modern Trade Key Accounts

Category Growth Pantry Preparation

Pre-COVID-19 Global
2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.

+19%
COVID-19 Global
2 Mar
+13% 2020
8-11 Jan 2020 COVID-19 Local First
First death of confirmed
COVID-19 in China. +89% case in
First case outside Indonesia
China (Thailand).
23 Jan 2020
onwards
Cases sprouting
globally

Pre-COVID Global COVID Global COVID-19 Local Case

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JAN FEB MAR

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Source: ScanTrack 14
 SCANTRACK

FROZEN FOOD GROWTH INCREASED AS PANIC BUYING

WAS INDUCED BY FIRST CONFIRMED CASE IN INDONESIA
Frozen Food | Weekly Value Sales Growth Trend vs. Year-ago | Total Modern Trade Key Accounts

Category Growth Pantry Preparation

Pre-COVID-19 Global
2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.

+7%
COVID-19 Global

8-11 Jan 2020

+9% 2 Mar
First death of 23 Jan 2020 COVID-19 Local 2020
COVID-19 in China.
First case outside
onwards
Cases sprouting
+29% First
confirmed
China (Thailand). globally case in
Indonesia

Pre-COVID Global COVID Global COVID-19 Local Case

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JAN FEB MAR

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Source: ScanTrack 15
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