Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Executive Summary
Operating Fundamentals ● Higher cap rates, solid NOI growth, and low cap-ex make self-storage a great business
Still Strong, but ● NOI growth continues to decelerate from "spectacular" to "great," albeit at a modest pace
Still Decelerating ● New supply isn't expected to present a formidable near-term threat, but is on the radar
● Underlying fundamentals remain strong, but "spectacular" growth would be difficult to repeat
On Our Minds ● Self-storage was recently added to Commercial Property Outlook and Real Estate Securities Monthly
The Pricing ● The disconnect between public and private-market self-storage valuations is quantified therein
Disconnect ● Private-market investors continue to underappreciate the sector's favorable cap-ex/NOI growth profile
● Public-market investors get it, as evidenced by the premiums at which self-storage REIT shares trade
● Properties are simply worth more in the hands of the self-storage REITs
Capital Allocation & ● The self-storage REITs continue to exploit the market's pricing inefficiency through acquisitions
Balance Sheet ● '14 projected acq. volume: PSA down from $1.2B in '13; EXR and CUBE flat (8-10% portfolio expansion)
Looking Good ● PSA is back in the development game; CUBE and EXR remain on the sidelines but are pursuing JVs
● Balance sheets: PSA = bullet proof; EXR = low-30% leverage; CUBE = mid-30% leverage
Asset Values ● Self-storage property values increased over the past year while most sectors drifted up moderately
Recent News is ● Demand from traditional and non-traditional investors (e.g., private equity) remains strong
Positive ● The recent decline in interest rates is bullish for self-storage property values
Recommendations ● Our valuations were updated for 1Q14 in the May 23rd Real Estate Securities Monthly
● Our recommendations for PSA and EXR are revised herein based on relative valuation
● Recommendation changes: PSA upgraded to HOLD; EXR downgraded to SELL
● Our recommendations are: BUY: CUBE HOLD: PSA SELL: EXR
Waxing
Strip Office
Best
Storage
Ind Mall
Mall Apt
Ind
Momentum
Momentum
Lodging Strip
Storage Sr
Apt Housing
Storage
Waning
Waning
Apt
Worst
Strip
Ind
Sr Office Lodging
Mall
Sr Housing Lodging
Housing
Weakest Strongest Weakest Strongest Worst Best
'14/'15 Average '14/'15 Average Last 12 Mos Change
● Self-storage fundamentals are strong, ● NOI growth is slowing, but is still ● Self-storage is cheap relative to other
but slowing, following several years of expected to outpace other sectors property types
explosive growth ● Expense growth remains in check, but is ● Recent drop in cap rates (i.e., increase in
● Portfolio occupancies are at all-time expected to normalize values) does not fully reflect the sector's
highs, forcing operators to focus more ● Larger operators continue to capitalize long-term growth/cap-ex profile
on increasing rents to drive revenue on benefits of scale through acquisitions ● Unique attributes combine for an
growth moving forward extraordinary long-term growth outlook
Self-Storage 101
Demand Factors
Drivers Supply Considerations Other Key Factors
Consistent Demand… Industry Now More Mature The Basics:
Higher cap rates
• Healthy in strong economy • 50,000 facilities
+ Good NOI growth
• Resilient in weak economy • 7-8 / sq. ft. per capita! + Very low cap-ex
• Customers in place > 1 year: = Great business!
greater than 55% for PSA & EXR Fragmented
Public REITs
…Yet Tenant Turnover is Also High • REITs: ~10% market share
• Best-of-breed
• Many stays < 6 months Barriers to New Supply Greater than in • Advantages over private competitors
Seasonality the Past
Bigger is better
• Highest demand in spring/summer • Harder to build in better locations
• Spreads fixed costs
• Population density is key
Types of Demand • Supports Internet marketing
Short-Term (3-12 months) Current Development is Modest Internet = Game Changer
• Marriage/Divorce/Birth/Death • Has replaced Yellow Pages
Customers Want:
• Relocation/Moving/College/Military • Price comparisons & reservations
• Convenient location
Long-Term (12+ months) • Mobile strategy is critical
• Security
• “Extra garage/basement” • Reasonable price Tenant Insurance = profitable!
Commercial / Business (12-36 months)
• “Mini-warehouse”
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Self-Storage Sector Update - May 30, 2014 5
Demand Drivers
Portfolio Demographics: Many factors drive self-storage demand, but local population density is arguably the most
important. Income is secondary. The three public REITs covered by Green Street have similar portfolio demographic
qualities on an average 3-mile basis.
($000s)
100 88
(000s)
$62
80 $61
$61 $60
60 $60
$60
40 $59
20 $58
0 $57
Weighted Average** Median Weighted Average** Median
Source: Scan/US and Green Street Advisors. Based on analysis of >3,000 facilities owned by the REITs.
** Weighted by net rentable square feet.
Supply Growth
A Big Factor: A lack of new construction in the self-storage sector has provided a tailwind for operating fundamentals
for several years. The quality of self-storage supply statistics remains poor as compared to traditional property sectors.
However, the available evidence suggests that new supply growth remains muted and should not have a material
impact on operating fundamentals over the near term.
U.S. Self-Storage Supply Growth The historical growth figures presented are not solely
indicative of new construction, as they include some
60 10% conversions and newly identified existing properties each year.
Self-Storage Facilities (000s) (left-axis)
Annual Growth (% of Existing Stock) (right-axis)
EXR disclosed in its recent Investor Presentation that ~115
new developments are known to be under construction
50 8% and expected to be delivered over the next 12 months
according to Marcus & Millichap. This equates to less
than 0.5% of existing supply.
40 6%
Annual Completions
(% of Existing Stock)
6%
30 4%
4%
20 2%
2%
10 0% 0%
'93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13E '95-'09 '14-'15E '16-'18E
Source: Mini-Storage Messenger - 2014 Self-Storage Almanac and Green Street Advisors (projections).
4.1%
-4%
-4.4%
Current Previous
-6%
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14E '15E '16E '17E '18E '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
* Major sectors is an equally-weighted average of apartment, industrial, strip center, mall, and office.
Source: Company documents and Green Street Advisors.
Fundamentals: Occupancy
Impressive: PSA is by far the largest self-storage operator (>2,200 facilities in the U.S.) and has been public for many
years. Its results are a great proxy for the sector given the lack of historical industry data available and its conservative
same-store methodology. Occupancy levels of 85-90% have long been considered "full" in self-storage, in part due to
frictional vacancy (i.e., lots of move-ins and move-outs). But, continued technological advancement and a lack of new
supply have allowed PSA to maintain occupancy levels well above that range. EXR and CUBE are also recording record-
high occupancy levels.
(bps)
89% 30
0
87%
-50
85% -100
-100
-120
83% -150
06 07 08 08 09 10 11 11 12 13 14
3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q
6
2
4E
6E
8E
'9
'9
'0
'0
'0
'0
'0
'1
'1
'1
'1
'1
$10 4%
0%
$8
2%
$6 -2%
0%
$4
-4%
-2%
$2 -4.2%
$0 -4% -6%
06
07
08
08
09
10
11
11
12
13
14
6
2
4E
6E
8E
'9
'9
'0
'0
'0
'0
'0
'1
'1
3Q
2Q
1Q
4Q
3Q
2Q
1Q
4Q
3Q
2Q
1Q
'1
'1
'1
4%
0%
-4%
-8%
06
07
07
08
08
09
09
10
10
11
11
12
12
13
13
14
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
Source: Company documents. *Includes PSA, EXR, and CUBE.
4% 4%
2% 2%
0% 0%
-2% -2%
-4% -4%
-6% -6%
-8% -8%
06 07 08 08 09 10 11 11 12 13 14
6
2
4E
6E
8E
Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q
'9
'9
'0
'0
'0
'0
'0
'1
'1
3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1
'1
'1
'1
'14 Expansion ● Doesn't move the needle ● 30% property-count expansion ● 15% property-count expansion
Tenant Insurance ● Excluded from same-store reporting ● Included in same-store reporting
Operating ● Reports all property-level expenses ● Reports some expenses in G&A that PSA includes in operating expenses*:
Expenses ● in operating expenses - Regional Managers - Divisional VPs
- District Managers - Facility Services
Source: Company documents. * Our NAV estimates are adjusted for these differences.
Private-Market Valuation
Underappreciated: Self-storage benefits from a number of attributes including strong NOI growth, low cap-ex and,
more recently, de minimis new supply. These characteristics materialize over the long-run into favorable risk-adjusted
returns on self-storage properties, as detailed in the most recent Commercial Property Outlook and Real Estate
Securities Monthly . Self-storage cap rates in the private market remain well above the major sector average, indicating
investors may not fully appreciate the magnitude of these long-term advantages.
12%
4.4%
3.7% 9% 8.2%
3.3% 7.1% 6.7%
2.6% 2.3% 2.7%
2.0% 1.8% 5%
1.3%
60 bps
40 bps 5.6%
Private-market valuations reflected self- 5.4%
20 bps
storage's resilience during the downturn...
0 bps
Self-Storage Apartments Major Sector
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
-20 bps Avg.
*Major sectors is an equally-weighted average of apartment, industrial, strip center, mall, and office.
Source: Green Street Advisors.
Public-Market Valuation
Big Premiums: The healthy premiums at which self-storage REIT shares have recently traded are indicative of public-
market appreciation for the sector's strong cap-ex/NOI growth profile. The degree of UAV premium seen recently is
unprecedented, but reflects the argument that private-market cap rates are simply too high.
Current REIT Valuation Metrics
Implied Nominal Cap Rates Premium to Unlevered Asset Value '14 AFFO Yield
21.7%
Expensive
Expensive
0 bps
50 bps
10% -100 bps AFFO yields reflect
0 bps the cap-ex/NOI
Expensive
8%
6% 6.2%
5.8%
5.4% 5.4% 5.4%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
CUBE EXR PSA Apartment Avg. Major Sector Avg.
Implied Cap Rate 6.1% 5.2% 5.1% 5.7% 5.9%
G&A -0.6% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.4%
Cap-Ex -0.4% -0.3% -0.3% -0.5% -0.7%
NOI Growth* 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.7%
FLICR 6.2% 5.8% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4%
Source: Green Street Advisors. *Based on estimates of reported NOI growth.
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Self-Storage Sector Update - May 30, 2014 16
Extra Space EXR SELL ▼ 6.0% 6.3% 0 bps 32% $38.00 +4%
Public Storage PSA HOLD ▲ 5.9% 6.2% 0 bps 18% $135.75 +3%
Implied Nominal Cap Rate Spread Unleveraged Asset Value (UAV) Spread
200 bps EXR Less PSA 10% EXR Less PSA
Expensive
+3%
150 bps 0%
2-Yr Avg.
100 bps -10% Long-Term Avg.
-8%
85 -14%
Expensive
Long-Term Avg.
50 bps 37 -20%
2-Yr Avg.
0 bps -30%
-10
-50 bps -40%
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Source: Green Street Advisors. * Published May 23rd.
Comparative Analysis
U.S. Portfolio Data
Company Equity Mkt. Owned Portfolio Rent / Portfolio Cap Rate Cap-Ex Pro Rata Pro Rata Value /
Name Ticker Cap (MM) Facilities (1) Sq. ft. Sq. ft. Grade Nominal Economic per Sq. ft. % of NOI Value (MM) Sq. ft. Sq. ft.
CubeSmart CUBE $2,682 378 25,460 $13.52 B/B+ 6.4% 6.1% $0.50 5.6% $3,518 25,396 $139
Extra Space EXR $6,431 800 59,316 $14.29 A-/B+ 6.3% 6.0% $0.45 4.8% $6,081 39,137 $155
Public Storage PSA $29,973 2,202 141,000 $14.41 A-/B+ 6.2% 5.9% $0.50 5.0% $24,981 145,349 $172
Average/Wtd. Average $13,029 1,127 75,259 $14.30 6.2% 5.9% $0.49 5.0% $19,474 114,468 $166
Valuation
Company Leverage Debt to Implied Warr. Observed Prem. / Disc. To AFFO Yield Dividend AFFO / Div
Name NAV Ratio EBITDA Cap Rate Price Assets NAV Warr. Price Rec. 2014 2015 Yield Coverage
CubeSmart $16.00 37% 5.8x 5.9% $19.00 9% 14% -3.9% BUY 4.7% 5.3% 2.9% 165%
Extra Space $38.00 32% 5.0x 5.0% $51.25 25% 38% 2.3% SELL 4.4% 4.8% 3.6% 121%
Public Storage $135.75 18% 0.2x 5.1% $172.50 22% 27% -0.1% HOLD 4.4% 4.7% 3.2% 134%
Wtd. Average 22% 1.6x 5.1% 21% 28% 0.0% 4.4% 4.8% 3.3% 135%
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Please also have regard to the Affiliate Disclosures listed above when considering the extent to which you place reliance on this research presentation and any research recommendations made herein.
A number of companies covered by Green Street research reports, including PSA, pay an annual fee to receive Green Street’s research reports. Green Street may periodically solicit this business from the subject companies. In the aggregate, annual fees for GSA (U.S.) and GSA (UK) research reports received from
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Self-Storage Sector Update - May 30, 2014
At any given time, Green Street publishes roughly the same number of “BUY” recommendations that it does “SELL” recommendations. Green Street’s “BUYs” have historically achieved far higher total returns than its ”HOLDs”, which, in turn, have outperformed its “SELLs”.
The chart below shows CUBE’s price performance over the last three years, along The chart below shows EXR’s price performance over the last three years, along The chart below shows PSA’s price performance over the last three years, along
with Green Street’s recommendations during that time. with Green Street’s recommendations during that time. with Green Street’s recommendations during that time.
10-11
1-12
4-12
7-12
10-12
1-13
4-13
7-13
10-13
1-14
4-14
7-11
10-11
1-12
4-12
7-12
10-12
1-13
4-13
7-13
10-13
1-14
4-14
7-11
10-11
1-12
4-12
7-12
10-12
1-13
4-13
7-13
10-13
1-14
4-14
The results shown in the table in the upper right corner are hypothetical; they do not represent the actual trading of securities. Actual performance will vary from this hypothetical performance due to, but not limited to 1) advisory fees and other expenses that one would pay; 2) transaction costs; 3) the inability to
execute trades at the last published price (the hypothetical returns assume execution at the last closing price); 4) the inability to maintain an equally-weighted portfolio in size (the hypothetical returns assume an equal weighting); and 5) market and economic factors will almost certainly cause one to invest differently
than projected by the model that simulated the above returns. All returns include the reinvestment of dividends. Past performance, particularly hypothetical performance, can not be used to predict future performance.
(1) Results are for recommendations made by Green Street’s North American Research Team only (includes securities in the US, Canada, and Australia). Uses recommendations given in Green Street's "Real Estate Securities Monthly" from January 28, 1993 through May 23, 2014. Historical results from January 28,
1993 through October 1, 2013 were independently verified by an international "Big 4" accounting firm. The accounting firm did not verify the stated results subsequent to October 1, 2013. As of October 1, 2013, the annualized total return of Green Street’s recommendations since January 28, 1993 was: Buy +24.5%,
Hold +10.9%, Sell -0.3%, Universe +11.5%.
(2) Company inclusion in the calculation of total return has been based on whether the companies were listed in the primary exhibit of Green Street’s "Real Estate Securities Monthly”. Beginning April 28, 2000, Gaming C-Corps and Hotel C-Corps, with the exception of Starwood Hotels and Homestead Village, were no
longer included in the primary exhibit and therefore no longer included in the calculation of total return. Beginning March 3, 2003, the remaining Hotel companies were excluded.
(3) All securities covered by Green Street with a published rating that were included in the calculation of total return. Excludes “not rated” securities.
(4) Green Street has only three recommendations: BUY (“B”), HOLD (“H”) and SELL (“S”). The firm does not consistently publish price targets and therefore price targets are not included in this graph. Per NASD rule 2711, “Buy” = Most attractively valued stocks. We recommend overweight position; “Hold” = Fairly
valued stocks. We recommend market-weighting; “Sell” = Least attractively valued stocks. We recommend underweight position.
Green Street will furnish upon request available investment information regarding the recommendation
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disseminated to others without written permission.
Use of this report is subject to the Terms of Use listed at the end of the report
Self-Storage Sector Update - May 30, 2014
Macro Research Mike Kirby, Director of Research mkirby@greenst.com Trading Michael Vranich, Managing Director, Trading mvranich@greenst.com
Craig Leupold, President cleupold@greenst.com Laurie Hauck, Vice President, Trading lhauck@greenst.com
David Alexander, Vice President, Trading dalexander@greenst.com
REIT Research Scott Lee, Vice President, Trading slee@greenst.com
• Health Care/Lab Michael Knott, CFA, Managing Director mknott@greenst.com Institutional Sales Anthony Scalia, Director, Institutional Sales ascalia@greenst.com
Space Tom McDonough, Senior Associate tmcdonough@greenst.com Tim Joy, Vice President, Institutional Sales tjoy@greenst.com
Scott Bell, Vice President, Institutional Sales sbell@greenst.com
Conor Wagner, Associate* cwagner@greenst.com Seth Laughlin, Vice President, Institutional Sales slaughlin@greenst.com
Eric Lovett, Institutional Sales elovett@greenst.com
• Industrial/Tower Eric Frankel, Analyst efrankel@greenst.com Kris Hoffman, Vice President, Institutional Sales khoffman@greenst.com
Dillon Essma, Associate dessma@greenst.com
• Lodging Lukas Hartwich, CFA, Analyst lhartwich@greenst.com Subscription Sales & Marketing 660 Newport Center Drive, Suite 800 Newport Beach, CA 92660 +1.949.640.8780
Jonathan Taylor, CPA, Associate jtaylor@greenst.com
Sales Damon Scott, Managing Director, Subscription Sales dscott@greenst.com
Kevin Johnson, Manager, Subscription Sales kjohnson@greenst.com
• Office/Data Centers Michael Knott, CFA, Managing Director mknott@greenst.com
Jed Reagan, Analyst jreagan@greenst.com
John Bejjani, CFA, Senior Associate jbejjani@greenst.com Marketing Rosemary Pugh, Manager, Marketing rpugh@greenst.com
Bayle Smith, Associate bsmith@greenst.com
• Residential/Self- Dave Bragg, Managing Director dbragg@greenst.com Advisory & Consulting 660 Newport Center Drive, Suite 800 Newport Beach, CA 92660 +1.949.640.8780
Storage Ryan Burke, Senior Associate rburke@greenst.com
Kevin Tyler, Associate ktyler@greenst.com Consulting Jim Sullivan, Managing Director jsullivan@greenst.com
David Segall, Associate dsegall@greenst.com Dirk Aulabaugh, Senior Director daulabaugh@greenst.com
Matt Wokasch, CFA, Vice President mwokasch@greenst.com
• Retail/Net Lease Cedrik Lachance, Managing Director clachance@greenst.com Phil Owens, CFA, Vice President powens@greenst.com
David De La Rosa, Vice President ddelarosa@greenst.com
Jason White, Analyst jwhite@greenst.com
Justin Brown, Associate jbrown@greenst.com
Daniel Busch, Analyst dbusch@greenst.com Dawn Seo, Associate dseo@greenst.com
Ashley Kirby, Associate akirby@greenst.com
Jay Carlington, CFA, Associate jcarlington@greenst.com
Chris Lucas, Associate clucas@greenst.com
Spenser Allaway, Associate sallaway@greenst.com
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