Eye on the Ionosphere
Space weather effects
of October–November 2003
Patricia Doherty Æ Anthea J. Coster Æ William Murtagh
Space weather events
The period between late October and early November of
2003 included a series of large solar events that resulted
in some of the most extreme space weather of the
current solar cycle. Space weather has been defined as
the conditions on the sun and in the solar wind, mag-
netosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can
influence the performance and reliability of space-borne
and ground-based technological systems. Adverse con-
ditions in the space environment can cause disruption
of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and
electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of
socioeconomic losses (National Science Foundation
2000).
The space weather events of October–November 2003
were initiated by three very large sunspot clusters that
became visible on the Sun over a period of approximately
7 days beginning on 18 October, 2003. One of these
clusters, region 486, became the largest sunspot group of
the current solar cycle and the largest seen since 1991.
This sudden increase in sunspots induced a series of
solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs),
(Department of Commerce 2004). Solar flares are explo-
sions on the surface of the Sun that produce a quick
directed high-speed blast of charged particles and elec-
tromagnetic energy. One of the largest solar flares ever
Received: 2 July 2004 / Accepted: 10 July 2004
Published online: 14 August 2004
ª Springer-Verlag 2004
P. Doherty
Institute for Scientific Research,
Boston College, 140 Commonwealth Avenue,
Chestnut Hill, MA 02467, USA
A.J. Coster (&)
MIT Haystack Observatory, Atmospheric Sciences,
Off Route 40, Westford, MA 01886, USA
E-mail: ajc@haystack.mit.edu
Tel.: +1-781-9815753
Fax: +1-781-9815766
URL: http://www.haystack.mit.edu/ajc
W. Murtagh
NOAA Space Environment Center, CO, USA
seen on the Sun occurred on 28 October. It was the third
largest detected since regular monitoring began approx-
imately 30 years ago and the largest since April 2001 (US
Department of Commerce 2004). This activity was
accompanied by a CME. CME’s are huge bubbles of
plasma ejected from the Sun that speed into space. They
disrupt the flow of the solar wind and produce distur-
bances that can strike the Earth with sometimes-cata-
strophic results (http://science.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/
cmes.htm). This particular CME was one of the fastest on
record in that it left the sun with a speed of 2,500 km/s,
five times the average speed (Murtagh 2004). Figure 1
illustrates the observed active regions on 27 October to-
gether with the images of the solar flare and CME re-
corded on 28 October as observed by the SOHO
spacecraft (http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/).
These events resulted in a severe geomagnetic storm in the
Earth’s environment at 06:00 UT on 29 October. The dis-
turbance levels on the Sun remained high for several days
with a second powerful CME occurring at approximately
21:00 UT on 29 October.
Figure 2 illustrates the planetary 3-h Kp indices for the
period of 29 October 2003 to 1 November 2003. The Kp
index is derived from 13 global magnetic observatories.
It is a measure of the disturbance level of the geomag-
netic field by auroral ionospheric currents. Kp values
greater than 4 represent disturbed conditions. As the Kp
values increase, the severity of the storm increases. Kp
values of 9 represent the most extreme disturbed con-
ditions and occur only a few times during the course of
each 11-year solar cycle (http://www.sec.noaa.gov/NO-
AAscales). Note that Kp values of 9 were reached mul-
tiple times during 29–30 October in response to the
CME activity.
Space weather effects
Space weather events, such as those described above, can
affect the performance of ground and space based tech-
nological systems, with effects ranging from minor digital
upsets, to severe power grid disruptions that can cause loss
of service to millions. For GPS users, the impact of space
weather can usually be characterized by disturbances in
the ionosphere. These in turn cause degradation in range
measurements, and in severe circumstances, loss of lock
by the receiver of the GPS signal.
DOI 10.1007/s10291-004-0109-3 GPS Solutions (2004) 8:267–271 267
 Eye on the Ionosphere

Fig. 1 – Changes prohibited to airline routes North of 57
lati-

On the left, active regions observed on 27 October together with the tude
solar flare (in the middle) and the associated CME (on the right)
observed by SOHO on 28 October
– FAA issued its first ever alert on radiation doses
received by airline passengers above 25,000 ft
– Wide area augmentation system (WAAS) service
Some of the systems affected by space weather events on interrupted in the CONtiguous United States (CONUS)
October and November 2003 have been summarized in a
recent publication (Webb and Allen 2004). Those effects of
the 28–30 October period are listed below:

– Astronauts onboard the International Space Station

Mid-latitude space weather effects
went into the service module for radiation protection. One of the sources for mid-latitude space weather effects,
– A power system failed in Malmo, Sweden (30 October). such as scintillation and large gradients in the total
– High current levels in transmission lines were observed electron content (TEC), is the phenomenon known as
in Wisconsin and New York. storm enhanced density (SED). SED is observed to be a
– Multiple satellites were affected including: plume of greatly enhanced TEC values (greater than 50
Japanese satellite Kodama data relay satellite in TEC units) associated with large gradients and high ion
geosynchronous orbit went into safe mode. It flux values. A typical SED plume begins in the New
recovered on 7 November, 2003. England coast region, extends across the Great Lakes, and
CHIPS satellite went offline for 27 h. moves westward into central Canada (Coster et al. 2003).
Observations were halted from several satellites SED was first identified in the early 1990s using obser-
including: Chandra and SIRTF vations from the Millstone Hill incoherent scatter radar
The ACE and Wind solar wind satellite lost plasma (ISR) (Foster 1993) although there was evidence of it
observations much earlier (Evans 1970, 1973).
Storm enhanced densities were observed over the conti-
– NASA’s Mars Odyssey MARIE (Martian radiation nental US from 20:00 UT 29 October until 01:00 UT 30
experiment) instrument failed October and again at 18:00 UT 30 October until 02:00 UT
– High-latitude GPS receiver outages reported 31 October. During these storms, TEC gradients associated
with SED were, at times, greater than 50 TEC units per
degree of latitude/longitude. Because of the large TEC
gradients, small-scale irregularities in the TEC, such as
those typically associated with scintillations, are thought
to form in the presence of SED. A recent study has
observed a correlation between SED observations and
scintillation activity in Canada (Skone et al. 2003).
Scintillations were observed in Canada on both 29 and 30
October in the presence of the SED plasma. In Fig. 3,
elevated phase scintillation parameters are shown as white
circles and are plotted on top of a GPS TEC map showing
the SED structure. Specially equipped GPS receivers
measure phase scintillation parameters. These receivers
are part of the University of Calgary’s Canadian GPS
Network for Ionosphere Monitoring (CANGIM) network
(Skone et al. 2003).
The presence of large ionospheric gradients associated
Fig. 2 with SED is a concern for wide area ionosphere systems
Planetary Kp indices for the period of 29 October 2003 to 1 November such as the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA)
2003 WAAS system.

268 GPS Solutions (2004) 8:267–271


Space weather effects on WAAS
The FAA’s WAAS system was commissioned for precision
approach (PA) services in July 2003, after a rigorous
90-day testing period. That testing period, however, was
not as challenging as the severe geomagnetic storm activity
that tested WAAS PA performance in October and
November of 2003.
There are basically two types of services currently sup-
ported by WAAS, PA and non-precision approach (NPA).
The PA service levels of lateral navigation/vertical navi-
gation (LNAV/VNAV) and local approach with vertical
guidance(LPV) use vertical guidance navigation that
allows an aircraft to approach a runway with decision
heights as low as 250 ft. Vertical guidance navigation relies
heavily on the accuracy of the WAAS ionospheric cor-
rections. The NPA service level is based on horizontal
navigation, where the use of WAAS ionospheric correc-
tions is not necessary. This type of service includes ter-
minal, en route domestic and en route oceanic flight
modes.
Availability of the WAAS system is defined as the percent
of time the WAAS services are available over the coverage
region. The current requirement is that PA service be
available ‡95% of the time over 75% of the CONUS. NPA
requirements are that the service be available 99.9% of the
time over the service volume. During the storm periods of
October and November 2003, WAAS availability for PA
service was degraded due to the rapid changes and strong
spatial gradients in the ionosphere as those observed in
Fig. 3 (Doherty 2004).
Figure 4 summarizes the service area coverage at 95%
availability for the vertical navigation service levels of
LNAV/VNAV and LPV for the period of October to
December 2003. This figure also shows the Kp index
plotted in blue. For clarity, the Kp index is presented as
Eye on the Ionosphere
Fig. 3
SED structure viewed by GPS TEC measurements
over North America together with L-band phase
scintillation recorded in Canada on 30 October
2003
Kp·10. The x-axis represents time over the 3-month per-
iod and the y-axis represents the percent of the WAAS
coverage area that had 95% availability. The drops in
LNAV/VNAV and LPV coverage on 29 and 30 October
indicate that there was no VNAV service in the entire
WAAS coverage area for 15 and 11.3 h respectively. A
similar loss of coverage is observed on 20 November for a
much shorter period of time. These periods of reduced
coverage are in direct association with the times when Kp
values were the highest.
Figure 5 shows the daily WAAS NPA coverage at the 99.9%
availability in a format similar to Fig. 4. Note that NPA
availability was not challenged during the extreme space
weather events that degraded availability for the PA service
levels. The drops in NPA coverage shown on this plot on
10/2, 10/15, 11/20, 12/2,12/12,12/18 and 12/20 were in
response to Ground Uplink Switchovers (FAA/William H.
Hughes Technical Center 2004).
Figures 4 and 5 illustrate the results of the space weather
events on WAAS. PA services were interrupted but NPA
services were continued throughout these challenging
events. This is primarily due to the fact that PA services
are dependent on the WAAS ionospheric correction grid
and NPA services do not require these corrections. In
general, the WAAS system performed as expected. It
detected the strong ionospheric spatial gradients and
responded by reducing system availability for VNAV ser-
vices.
Summary
This paper provides an overview of some of the most in-
tense space weather events and effects of the current Solar
Cycle. These events occurred in October and November
2003, 42 months after the peak of Cycle 23. Historically,
GPS Solutions (2004) 8:267–271 269
 Eye on the Ionosphere
the intensity of the geomagnetic storms of 29 and 30
October were ranked as the sixth and 16th of the top 30
geomagnetic storms. In response to these storms, tech-
nological systems were affected, satellites were lost or
service was disrupted, the Mars Odyssey MARIE instru-
ment was lost, a power grid in Sweden failed and some
GPS systems located at the higher latitudes experienced
outages. SEDs and scintillation were apparent over the
North American continent. Ionospheric gradients resulted
in interruptions of WAAS precision approach services for
15 h on the 29th of October and for 11.3 h on the 30th of
October.
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270 GPS Solutions (2004) 8:267–271
Fig. 4
Percent coverage of VNAV services at 95%
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2004)
Fig. 5
Percent coverage of NPA service at 99.9%
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