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Content

International 10
1 Emerging Sino-Persian strategic engagement 11
2 Cold war 2 (US-China conflict) - Implications for Pakistan 15
3 Biden takes the global political centerstage 19

National 22
1 Challenges to national integration in Pakistan 23
2 The shadow of colonial mentality 30
3 Water crisis in Pakistan 33
37
Essay Special 37
Democarcy in Pakistan: hopes & hurdles 38

CSS Josh Talks 45

CSS journey of Humza Abbas 45

Monthly Press Review 50

Past Paper MCQs Compilation 67
 CSS Magazine edition 6

International
 Emerging
Sino-Persian
Strategic
Engagement
By Sir Zohaib Anjum

Outline of Joint Statement on

Comprehensive Strategic
Partnership between Iran and
China
The joint statement consists of 20 articles
underlining cooperation in fields like political,
executive, human, cultural, judicial, security,
defense and regional and international domains.

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CSS Magazine Edition 6

Political Domain
•Expansion of bilateral relations
•Mechanism of annual meetings between Foreign Ministers
•Inter-governmental relations to exchange experiences and strengthen interactions in all fields
•Enhancement of exchanges and cooperation between both legislatures
•Support for independence, national sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Iran agreed to One-China policy.
Chinese support Iranian “Development Plan” and its increasing role in regional and international affairs.
•Consultations and discussion to conclude a bilateral 25 year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement

Executive Cooperation Domain

•Iran welcomes BRI
•Cooperation in areas such as fossil fuels, renewable energies, security of demand and supply
•Cooperation in economy, banking, mutual investment, financing, mining, transportation, communications,
space, manufacturing industries, developing of ports, upgrading and expansion of railway networks, express
railway systems, agriculture, water resources, protection of environment, food security, fighting
desertification, water desalination, use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes etc.
•Join cooperation for development through Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

Human and Cultural Domain

•Upgrading cultural cooperation
•Cooperation in academic and higher education

Judiciary, Security, and Defense Domain

•Judicial cooperation and exchanges
•Recognition of terrorism, extremism and separatism as threats against all humanity and the global peace
and stability
•Fight against illegal border crossing, smuggling and trafficking, cyber-crimes, transnational and organized
crime
•Enhancement of communications and exchanges between armed forces

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CSS Magazine Edition 6

Regional and International Domains

•Support for multi-polarization of international system
•Enhancement of consultations within regional and international organizations
•Support for JCPOA

It started in 2016 during Xi’s visit to Iran. Visit culminated with announcement of “Comprehensive Strategic
Partnership” to broaden bilateral ties in multiple arenas of common diplomatic and strategic interests. US
withdrawal from JCPOA and consequent crushing economic sanctions forced Iran to wander in search of a
reliever. Sinic convictions of Chinese Century, “politics of generosity” and compulsive externalities like
“containment of China” and energy securitization made Iran favorite child for Chinese in search of adoption.
As US squeezed its regional presence, China expanded its footprint resulting in the aforesaid partnership.
However, the larger regional equation can be best deciphered if “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” is
seen in connection with CPEC and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

The agreement includes nearly 100 projects including high-speed railways and 5G telecommunication
networks, free-trade zones and infrastructure projects. It is obvious that with CPEC, string of ports in the
Indian Ocean and this latest agreement, China is yearning to carve its global dominion.

China and Iran are trying to establish bilateral strategic ties including 25 years Comprehensive Cooperation
Agreement. This development will usher into a new era for China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and
Belt and Road Initiative.

Understandably, this cooperation will not be limited to deepening of economic ties as Iran and China are
already extending cooperation in multiple areas like counterterrorism, trafficking, and transnational crime.
Both states share a common regional view under the auspices of Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

China has similar strategic partnership agreement with other regional countries like KSA, UAE and Pakistan.
China is deepening its ties with the Arab World. However, China Iran cooperation will not be well received in
Arab capitals. To balance the regional diplomatic tide would pose a real test for Chinese diplomacy.

China wants to develop a port at Jask that would give it a huge advantage as much of world’s oil passes
through the region. The port is strategically located close to Bahrain where the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in
headquartered. Moreover, as India stepped back from developing Chahbahar port, Iran started looking for
other investors resulting in increased China Iran cooperation.

Implications for the Region

Sensing Chinese interest, Tehran dropped New Delhi
from a key rail project after Indian showed reluctance in
investing in Iran fearing American sanctions. Growing
tensions between US and China, US China trade war and
border spat between China and India offer a vivid insight
into new geopolitical realignments in the region.

According to a July 11 report by the New York Times, the

not yet finalized agreement between Beijing and Tehran
will see China invest a total of $400bn in banking,
transport and development sectors in Iran. In exchange,
Beijing expects to receive a regular, and heavily
discounted, supply of Iranian oil over the next 25 years.
The deal is part of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s
ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that aims to
extend his country’s economic and strategic influence
across Eurasia.

Increasing China Iran ties and expulsion of India from

rail project were closely interpreted by monitors as
interlinked developments. Though Tehran denied that

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CSS Magazine Edition 6

Indian removal from Zahedan Chahbahar railway project

was linked with Chinese involvement but many viewed
this development as a major setback to Indian plans to
create an alternative trade route to Afghanistan and
Central Asia bypassing Pakistan.

Falling from the Sky: A Skeptic’s

Perspective
400 billion dollars is a huge amount that Chinese
announced to invest in Iranian economy. What needs to
be seen is whether Iranian economy has the potential
and wherewithal to absorb such a bulky investment.
Given US sanctions, no Chinese bank or company would
like to invite US wrath. Chinese would opt for safer
options like energy and infrastructure development in
exchange for oil exports form Iran. Chinese blueprint
would be to maximize the exploitation of Iranian petro
reserves. Xi is a craftsman for whom US blunder
(economic sanctions) provide a strategic opportunity. An
isolated Iran would have no viable alternative but to fall
for Sinic lures dragging Iranian economy into a
never-ending debt trap. Though Iranian hostility of US,
its proximity to Persian Gulf and its somewhat moderate
fighting capability might be an area of interest for
Chinese planners but most striking arena of interest
remains Iranian oil reserves. With Iran on its side and a
wary Russia, China would be tempted to drill into OPEC
umbrella with a singularity of purpose-countering US
hegemony over oil politics in the region. Iran and China
would have to plan carefully so that this ambitious
project does not fall apart.

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 Cold War 2
(US – China
Conflict) –
Implications
for Pakistan
By Shafaq Sajjad
Introduction
On August 5 2020, Foreign Minister of China,
Wang Yi, while giving interview to a Chinese news
agency said, “China never intends to and will
never interfere in US elections or other US
internal affairs. Likewise, the US must abandon its
fantasy of remodelling China to US needs.” Now
that Chinese economy has grown by leaps and
bounds as compared to 30 years ago, China has
abandoned its policy of ‘non-confrontation’ – it is
now responding vigorously to every step taken by
the United States (US). On the other hand, the US
is struggling to keep the American Dream alive
that has been receiving internal hits in the form
of poor policies by Trump administration as well
as external attacks in the shape of China’s
increasing global influence.

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CSS Magazine Edition 6

The Onset of Cold War 2: US-China

Conflict during Trump
Administration
Sino-American relations saw a decline during the
presidency of Donald Trump in political and
economic domain. It was Trump’s 2017 National
Security Strategy document that, perhaps for the
first time, clubbed China along with Russia as a
challenge to American power, influence and
interests. The trade war between the two countries
intensified in 2018 when President Trump began
setting trade barriers and tariffs on China.
According to the perspective adapted by the US, the
goal of these tariffs was to force China to make
changes to "unfair trade practices" and intellectual
property theft. Consequently, the trade war
negatively impacted the economies of both
countries. In the US, it has led to higher prices for
consumers and financial difficulties for farmers. As
someone rightly remarked,
“American Dream is made in China”

In China, the trade war contributed to a slowdown

in the rate of economic and industrial output
growth. After two years of participating in full effect
trade war, the US and China signed “Phase One
Deal” in Januray 2020 covering intellectual property,
technology transfer, trade in food and agriculture
products, financial services, macroeconomic
policies and currency, expanding trade, and dispute
resolution. As part of the deal, China has agreed to
increase its purchases of US goods and services by
at least $200 billion over the next two years
compared to 2017 imports. For its part, the United
States will trim some tariffs but maintain them on
$360 billion worth of Chinese imports.

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CSS Magazine Edition 6

Response of both countries to the ongoing pandemic is also an indication of the new emerging world order.
In May 2020, the White House released a report titled as “United States Strategic Approach to the People’s
Republic of China,” whereby the Trump administration detailed its future approach to China. The 16 page
long document demonstrates that independent of the nature of the COVID-19 outbreak, the tension between
the US and China will continue to exist in the coming years. While President Trump called Corona virus as
the ‘Wuhan Virus’ and rescinded funding for World Health Organization (WHO), China developed a soft
image in the global community by providing medical aid in terms of doctors and medical equipment. After an
analysis of the response of both countries to the pandemic, House Democrats, a Congressional Committee,
published a report labelling Trump’s response to the pandemic a ‘failure’.

Implications for Pakistan

1. Economic, Geostrategic, and Foreign Policy Considerations
US-China cold war will force Pakistan to negotiate the strategic interests of the two competing superpow-
ers, becoming a front-line state in the persisting conflict. How Pakistan plays its cards in this game will
determine the future of its economy, foreign policy, and democracy. The US is Pakistan’s largest export
destination, but China is Pakistan’s largest foreign investor. Thus, Pakistan is in troubled waters because the
two economic giants will emerge in this cold war, one led by the capitalist USA, and the other by communist
China. It will be hard for Pakistan to pick a side navigating its landscape because there will be no easy
trade-offs.

2. US-China Trade War and BRI

After China launched its “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI), the strategic rivalry between the two states reached
its zenith, as this project directly affected the US primacy in the region. The US strongly opposed Islamabad’s
relations Beijing, especially implementation of CPEC as part of the BRI since this would neutralize American
attempts to contain China. Resultantly, Washington is trying to undermine CPEC through multilateral
financial institutions, supporting Indian claims that CPEC passes through ‘disputed territory’ and encourag-
ing opposition to CPEC within Pakistan. However, the pursuit of hard power competition between the two
will adversely affect Chinese economy along with its partners. Therefore, the stability of Sino-US relation-
ship appears to be critical for BRI’s long term success.

3. India, Pakistan and Kashmir

America has made a strategic calculation to support India’s rise as a regional hegemon as an effort to
counterbalance China. This will create a complex yet interesting dynamic where Pakistan and China stand on

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CSS Magazine Edition 6

one side on issues like Kashmir, while the US and India stand on the other side. In this situation, Pakistan
should pursue political, economic and security engagements with China, Bangladesh and Iran. Moreover,
Pakistan should broaden its relations with Russia as well. Conflict prevention seems to be the best strategy
for Pakistan to adapt in the foreseeable future.

Conclusion
Trump’s slogan ‘Make America Great Again’ clearly acknowledged that the US has lost its supreme global
position. As a result, the US started a trade war with the fast emerging economy, China, as an effort to regain
its lost glory. But, now China is not only strongly retaliating but has also started challenging the US and its
allies. The strategic partnership under BRI with Iran is the best manifestation of Chinese new approach in
global geopolitics. Keeping in view the regional effects of increasing tensions between the two superpowers,
Pakistan should identify a middle ground where it can protect economic, strategic, and security interests of
the country.

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 Biden takes
the Global
Political
Centerstage
By Mariam Khan
The oldest president in the history of the United
States of America will take up the job in the most
important office of the world. Joseph R. Biden Jr.,
will be inaugurated as the 46th President of the
U.S on January 20, 2021.

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The U.S. elections of 2020 were the most important in modern history; however, it will be the annals of
history which will tell if the elections were a turning point in world affairs.

The President-elect is a globalist. He has spent more than four decades in public life, first as as a senator, and
later as the Vice President in the Obama administration. Biden’s formal initiation into politics was in 1972
when he was elected to the U.S. Senate. What he brings to the presidency is his time-tested experience
which gives him an edge over the frail state of affairs of the country he is to govern after the Trumpian era of
chaotic governance.

A Biden presidency will shift gears to multilateralism and diplomacy be it U.S.’ return to the Paris Agreement
of 2015 of the Iran Nuclear Deal, President-elect Biden will aim to fix the pieces of an international puzzle
that muzzled in the era of the 45th President.

Europe ¬– Mending ways with an old ally

The President-elect will work on recuperating lost ties in the
European subcontinent which once was a major U.S. ally, but
due to Donald J. Trump’s divisive policies, a chasm was
created, which Biden has on his agenda; after all he is all for
transatlantic alliance. The North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) Summit in Brussels, to be held this
year, will be an event to look forward to for Biden to test the
diplomatic waters, mending ways with an old friend.

Reentering the Iran Nuclear Deal

A major feat of the Obama administration, of which Biden
was the steering wheel, was the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action or commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, which
was left by the U.S. under Trump in 2018. As per the
framework of the deal, Iran was given relief from sanctions
imposed by the U.S. and its allies prior to 2015, provided Iran
would downgrade its nuclear program as quid pro quo.
However, tying a diplomatic knot with the Shia-majority
bloc, will create a stir in the Middle East, especially in the
House of Saud. Iran would not simply get its way until it
complies with the scale de-escalation of its nuclear program,
until which the sanctions would not be lifted.

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Russia – Foes of Yore

With Russia being the archrival, Biden, being the maker of treaties will extend an olive branch to it after, all
the President-elect will choose to work closely with Putin’s Russia, and work towards extending the New
Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) of 2010 which expires in mid of February 2021. As per START, both
the countries are to freeze all their respective nuclear warheads, so signatories of the treaty need to comply
with its terms and conditions. With a month of him taking the role of President, Biden should take this as
one of his first mega assignments.

China – Keeping the Asian Giant in check

The trade wars that escalated during the Trump regime led to U.S.-China relations at the lowest ebb. Came
Covid-19 and Trump blamed China for the outbreak of the pandemic, while China blamed the U.S. military
for the pandemic. Biden, when it comes to the U.S. foreign policy with China, will not waver much from
Trump’s doctrine, however his moves will be far more predictable, unlike those of the current President’s.
The allies of the former capitalistic bloc have their eyes on the new order of the world – one where Biden is
driven by the wheels of multilateralism or dictated by competition and thus minimizing cooperation between
the leading economies of the world. How Biden leaves an imprint on U.S.-China relationship will unfold in
the coming months with shades of diplomacy dotted with shades of ‘America First’.

Strengthening International Organizations

Under Trump, the U.S. focus was more on gains made locally rather than those made by a unipolar power.
Once the champion of globalization, the U.S. in the past four years left marks around the world of its
unilateralist approach. Biden, apart from reentering the 2015 deals of mitigating climate change and scaling
down of uranium enrichment by Iran, focus on the World Health Organization (WHO) and its role in
controlling the worst pandemic of our lifetimes, and the role played by WHO.

Middle East – Treading the precarious route

Befriending a Shia-regime or romanticizing with the authoritarian regimes of the Middle East will dictate
Biden’s path in the tenure of his presidency. Breaking ties with Iran will please the autocrats of the Arab
world, however it may lead to Iran managing its own nuclear weapon which will create murky waters for
Israel, an ally of the U.S., and now the UAE too, will further complicate the situation of an already war-torn
region. A balancing act by Biden is the need of the hour, and the world powers have their eyes glued to the
President-elect’s moves in the volatile region.

Biden – Restoring the Unipolar world order or traversing to the old

multipolar world?
A humanitarian at heart and a statesman at par, President-elect Joe Biden has multiple challenges lying bare,
staring point blank in the eye, waiting to be resolved. Come January 20 2021 and the world will see if the next
four years under the Democrat Biden will change the course of history under the leadership of a political
changemaker, leading the world by example with U.S. at the helm of global power and politics, or will it be a
century of a new emerging power, across the seven seas? The countdown has begun. Is it the dawn of a new
world order or will regional powers surface across continents, creating imbalance in the affairs of the world?
Only time will tell.
 CSS Magazine edition 6

National
 Challenges to
National
Integration In
Pakistan
By Urooj Fatima
Introduction
On August 5 2020, Foreign Minister of China,
Wang Yi, while giving interview to a Chinese news
agency said, “China never intends to and will
never interfere in US elections or other US
internal affairs. Likewise, the US must abandon its
fantasy of remodelling China to US needs.” Now
that Chinese economy has grown by leaps and
bounds as compared to 30 years ago, China has
abandoned its policy of ‘non-confrontation’ – it is
now responding vigorously to every step taken by
the United States (US). On the other hand, the US
is struggling to keep the American Dream alive
that has been receiving internal hits in the form
of poor policies by Trump administration as well
as external attacks in the shape of China’s
increasing global influence.

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On 9th of January, the aggrieved Hazara community finally laid their dead to rest. With broken hearts and
tears in their eyes, they had questions on their lips. Questions that they had been asking for more than two
decades and yet they haven't received any answers. Saeed Muhammad Raza, Leader of a local political party
said," For 22 years, [our demands] are the same: that our killers are arrested, that their facilitators are
arrested and those who lead them be arrested. It is not so difficult to understand this. "The community is
demanding for the resignation of the Chief minister of Balochistan, expressing their complete mistrust in the
provincial government and calling for the Prime Minister to come and listen to their plight himself. The
Hazara community is not the only community who's feeling so estranged and alienated from the rest of the
country; left alone to defend themselves. Other sectarian, religious and ethnic communities are also feeling
as they have been left behind; an outcast. And the echelons of power are working only to protect and serve
privileged few.

This feeling of alienation and deprivation by various sects and groups in the country is quite the opposite to
the dream of a united and strong Pakistan as envisaged by our Quaid. He categorically stated that, "We are
now all Pakistanis, not Balochis, Pathans, Sandhis, Bengalis, Punjabis and so on and as Pakistanis we must
feel, behave and act, and we should be proud to be known as Pakistanis and nothing else. "By declaring all
the people of Pakistan as the citizens of the state of Pakistan he integrated, the whole nation into one larger
whole. People with common traditions, values, customs and objectives of shared national development form
a nation. Integration is the process, under which all state institutions provide uniform and equal attention to
the residents of the state, irrespective of their race, creed, religion and origin. In view of S.N. Panda,
“National integration is a psychological phenomenon, a feeling of oneness that raises above all narrow
and divisive tendencies and makes for genuine patriotism and progress". And this mindset enables nations
to achieve those marvels that a single individual cannot even imagine. The creation of Pakistan was itself
such a marvel, achieved with sheer sacrifice and united effort.

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But soon after its creation it fell prey to rapacious vultures. The religion, language and a separate identity,
which were the main factors that stirred the creation of Pakistan, became the seeds of discord within
Pakistan later. The military-bureaucratic monopoly of the West disgruntled the educated middle-class
Bengali youth. The average pay gap in West to East was 100:60 rupees. Bengalis were proud of their
language, which was looked down upon by the West. Finally, the financial and cultural exploitation of the
East Pakistan led to the secession of the East wing. But perhaps the successive holders of the public offices
didn't learn the lesson, since the right grievances of other aggrieved factions are dealt in the same fashion.
The sense of deprivation and exploitations must end or, God forbid, the old wound might start to fester.

The matter that deserves government's utmost attention is the unrest in Balochistan. Balochistan is the key
to a prosperous Pakistan in future due to its potential to become an international energy corridor and transit
route for trade and commerce. Over the years, the deprivation amongst Balochis has caused a number of
uprisings against the federal government. According to Voice for Baloch Missing Persons (VBMP), a human
rights organisation, more than 6,000 people are still missing from Balochistan. Since 2009, 1,400 people who
were abducted, have been found dead; their bodies riddled with bullets and drill holes, or bearing signs of
torture and mutilation. The growing resentment among the local population calls for greater control over its
own resources, more autonomy, role in mega projects, issues of outside settlers, missing persons and
extremism

Although the role of foreign hands in exacerbating the situation is incontrovertible, the successive
governments have also failed to tackle the matter rationally. Recently, Pakistan exposed the India's role
behind terrorist attacks in Pakistan and RAW's involvement in Baloch insurgency. But innocent people of
Balochistan are die hard patriotic Pakistanis and had suffered greatly at the hands of foreign proxies and the
indifference of political elite. The killing of ethnic Hazara community is another worrisome trouble. The
National Commission on Human Rights estimates that more than 2,000 Hazaras have been killed in targeted
attacks since 2004. Many believe that the persecution of Hazara community is not a religious/sectarian
issue, there is something else behind the killing of this community. According to Hazara community
members, one of the reasons for their persecution could be associated with the socio-economic prosperity
which they enjoy. Moreover, the recent rise in militant attacks is considered to be another futile effort by
India to destabilize Pakistan but also indicates that the monster of terrorism is not fully defanged.

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Very similar grievances are shared by other groups who claim to be economically and politically exploited
and being deliberately left out of the mainstream. The underprivileged parts of Sindh and Southern Punjab
also want to be given fairer share. The facts also support their claim that this is indeed a fair demand. UN
claims that 75% of the population in rural areas of Sindh is now living in abject poverty. The ubiquitous
shortage of food in Thar speaks itself the neglect it has suffered at the hands of ruling elite.

Karachi, the economic hub of Pakistan, the city of lights, now often presents the view of a muddy pond with
every rainy season. Moreover, Southern Punjab is another sample of continuous neglect. A comparison of the
two parts of Punjab gives a starker picture, clearly elucidating the problem and, possibly, the solution too.
The economic, health and education facilities provided to the Southern Punjab are abysmal.

A comparison of economic development:

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A comparison of number of primary schools:

A comparison of number of primary schools:

Another willful wastage of national potential is deliberate suppression of women from joining the
mainstream. They are pushed aside and are forbidden to share their talent and skills with their fellow
countrymen. the current female population in Pakistan is 49.20% of the total. And among these, only around
25% of women with a university degree in Pakistan are working. According to a 2018 survey, Thirty-two
percent of primary school age girls are out of school in Pakistan, compared to 21 percent of boys. By grade
six, 59 percent of girls are out of school, versus 49 percent of boys. The Global Gender Gap Index report of
2020 ranked Pakistan 151 out of the total 153 countries. So, we are wasting a huge national potential that
would be otherwise contributing, who knows what marvels to this country's progress.

After looking at these facts and figures, one might wonder what went wrong? Where the nation tripped, and
some parts were left behind in the race? For women exploitation, patriarchal mindset is to be blamed. But for
the rest, calling the ruling elites as 'the traitors' or 'Indian agents' is not the reasonable rationale. Several
errors of omission and commission led to this. Undeniably, bad governance should be the first one to blame.
The brinkmanship policy adopted by the power elites while dealing with frustrated masses further fanned the
outrage. The ambitious efforts by the power elite to bring national unity boomerangs at times. And ironically
as Ankita Sahoo said, ''We try hard for national integration but what actually happens is national
differentiation.''

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How state's high handedness in addressing the just grievances of its people can worsen the feeling of
alienation and exploitation felt by the people, is summarized below:

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Another threat to national integration of Pakistan is the blood game played by hostile foreign hands. Recently,
Pakistan's intelligence agencies, spectacularly, provided irrefutable evidence to the world, of India's despica-
ble attempts to sabotage peace in Pakistan. Pakistan fully exposed Indian financing in separatist militant and
terrorist attacks in this country.

Moreover, the sectarian rifts present in multi-cultural, multi-ethnic, multi-linguistic and multi-religious
Pakistani society provides the hotspots for tempering peace to the hostile agents. To a larger extent, the
clergy deserves the blame. Some clerics, for their own interests or perhaps to get attention, exploit the
fault-lines in various sects in the country. Several times in the past, religious zealots have brought the
successive governments to the knees. The minorities in Pakistan have suffered a lot at the hands of these
bigoted clerics.

Therefore, the first step towards securing national integration is the addressal of aforementioned issues.
Above all, the state must act impartially towards all of its citizens and everyone should be given a fair share in
national development, irrespective of caste, color, gender, religion or ethnicity. The people of Balochistan,
rural Sindh, Southern Punjab and other underprivileged areas of the country must be brought into main-
stream, given more incentives and special packages should be allotted to them. Several bills and laws have
been approved but not applied in true letter and spirit. The matter of enforced disappearances must be
solved immediately. The providence of speedy justice to all, would create a sense of trust and cohesion
between the state and the masses. Strict laws must be implemented to stop religiously stirred violence. No
one should be spared if they become the agent of sabotage in the country. Respectable religious leaders and
clerics must come forward and play their part. This country was built in the name of Islam, the same should
not be made the reason for its fall. If our inner ranks would be fortified, no enemy would be able to break
through us. But the secret of success and survival lies in the unity. This nation can achieve its glory and
hallmark in the nations of the world, if it stands together, with complete imperviousness to all bigoted rifts.
And then in the words of Hellen Keller, ''Alone we can do so little; together we do so much."
 The Shadow
of Colonial
Mentality
By Abdul Rehman
Our country’s social fabric is being frayed by a
myriad of socioeconomic ills. A key reason that
accounts for the sorry state of affairs is the
country’s deplorable failure to break the shackles
of the colonial mindset, inherited at the time of
independence.

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Colonial mentality represents the attitude of ethnic and cultural inferiority with the belief that the cultural
values of the coloniser are inherently superior to one’s own. It is a matter of fact that Pakistan has been
under the influence of the colonial mindset since its independence. It is unfathomable to assess the extent of
social, cultural, political and economic damage that this mindset has inflicted over the years upon the land of
artisans and poets.

The detrimental effects of colonial mentality are manifest on social, political and administrative sectors of
our society, for example, the divide and rule policy, forcefully enforced by the British, undoubtedly,
continues to haunt the cause of our national integration. We, as a nation, are still fighting on the fault lines of
sectarianism, language, regionalism and caste system.

Similarly, one of the principal reasons for the backwardness of our country represents the culture of
corruption that continues to plague the foundations of our society.

The country ranks 120th out of 180 countries in the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) report 2020 released
by Transparency International, which quite aptly paints the dismal picture of the current status quo.

The genesis of these deeply entrenched and pervasive corrupt practices can rightly be ascribed to the
colonial bequest, which has stemmed into the politicisation of institutions, a dilapidated civil services
structure, which is eroded by administrative red-tapism and compliance to colonial rules and procedures.

Likewise, the begging bowl syndrome that plagues Pakistan at large is, indeed, a colonial legacy. Through the
lens of history, for strengthening their rule, the imperialists used to dole out loans to those who were ready
to staunchly support their cause in their established colonies. Unfortunately, in the present day, the
proclivity of our governing elite and policymakers to rely on foreign aid, as a means to deal with the
country’s economic troubles represents yet another facet of colonial mentality. The leaders resort to the
reactionary measure of requesting economic assistance rather than implementing structural reforms to
meaningfully improve the general economy. Earlier, the money was contributed with certain preconditions,
but cards seem to have reversed since the dawn of the twenty-first century as foreign aid is now disbursed
in the form of interest-bearing loans that are to be repaid by aid recipient country within stipulated
timelines. According to several credible estimates, Pakistan received foreign financial support amounting to
$78.3 billion (from 1948-2016) from the US and £665 million (from 2009-2013) from the UK. This is
problematic since it has trapped Pakistan in the vicious cycle of outstanding debt. The significant
expenditure of the federal government currently accounts for debt servicing payments it has to make for
loans amassed from various sources.

The fragmented state of human development reflects how the country is still suffering in the grips of the
colonial legacy. The imperialists allocated a substantial chunk of the budget on maintaining law and order.

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This involved massive spending on military affairs while a very meagre amount on the social development of
the masses. There is no denying the fact that Pakistan remains a security state and needs to invest
frequently in defending its borders. However, extremely little spending on health and education are manifest
in Pakistan’s poor rank on human development indicators. Pakistan ranks 152nd out of 189 countries with a
score of 0.560, which is significantly lower than other South Asian counterparts. It is ranked in the lowest
percentile among the five countries as per Governance Indicators published by the World Bank. Pakistan
spends barely around two per cent of its GDP on education and almost one per cent on health. This is
invariably in stark contrast to a staggering 20 per cent of GDP spending on the defence budget. At an
individual level, the obsession with foreign goods, culture and western capitalistic model is another fallout of
the colonial mentality. Feudalism, another key factor for backwardness lays its origins during the British rule
when vast swathes of land were gifted to a few people who showcased their passionate loyalty with the
colonialists. These landlords consider political rule their birthright, consequently, a sheer number of local
inhabitants in rural areas still spend their lives in the serfdom of these feudalists who continue to contravene
upon their due economic, social and political rights. The military-bureaucracy dominance, outdated and
non-inclusive taxation system, extractive institutions, linguistic rifts and provincial discord coupled with
judiciary and police service based on outdated laws prove to impede our national progress. The culture of
elite corps amongst civil administrators, the supremacy of the English language, rampant corruption,
feudalism, growing poverty, and human rights abuses collectively contribute towards the backwardness of
our nation.

There are other decolonised nations, scores of them who overcame the colonial mindset and progressed by
leaps and bounds. Therefore, we require some critical reforms in academic, administrative, civil services,
judicial, political and social sectors to get rid of the colonial mindset and start treading towards sustainable
development. Although we have come a long way since our independence, we are confronting the direct
consequences of colonial mentality that continue to hamper the sociopolitical and economic progress of the
country. Assuming office, the current government was optimistic about its plans for reforming the judiciary,
institutional independence and the civil services for the dispensation of justice and accountability direly
needed to rid the country from the ramifications of colonialism. It is undoubtedly high time that the
democratic leadership of Pakistan should come out of “tall claims” and “hollow promises” and progressively
introduce the much-needed reforms in the greater national interest.

The writer is a qualified chartered accountant and a specialist in global democratic affairs, education, economy,
taxation, and governance based in Lahore, Pakistan. He has extensive research and hands-on experience in the public
sector and can be reached out at arsyed09 @gmail.com. He tweets @SyedAbd90588948.
 Water Crisis
in Pakistan
By Dawood Khan Tareen
Traditionally nomads settle in a place for a short
period on the river shores. So the dwellers have
easy access to water. That’s why it is appropriate
to consider water as blue gold. No water means
no life and vice versa. It is an indispensable
necessity of life as air is. Pakistan has been
declared a water-stressed country in 1990 and a
water-scarce country in 2005. The need of the
hour is to handle the sensitive and alarming
situation. Although, the competent authorities
have been highlighting the importance. However,
much more is needed and expected before the
hazard is converted into a disaster.

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CSS Magazine Edition 6

Pakistan is declared as the 3rd most-affected country

with inadequate resources of water and storage and
poor arrangement of the already available sources.
Almost 60% of water is collected from the monsoon
rains. Similarly, the rainwater is also stored in the
winter season in some regions of the country. Notably,
three quarter’s area of the country receives less than
250mm of rainfall per year. Likewise, Pakistan has the
capacity of storing water for 30 days only. This is 900
days in the USA and 300 days in India. Although, the
country receives 145MAF (Million Acre Feet) water, yet
only 13.7MAF is being safely stored. All the remaining
quantity goes wasted.

According to a report in 2016, the surface water

availability per capita is 1000 cubic meters.
Comparatively, this availability was 5260 cubic meters
in 1951. Over time the water demand did increase due
to population growth but the supply remains constant
and has decreased in several regions too. For a long
Pakistan has been relying on Tarbela and Mangla
Dams only. Unfortunately, the two mentioned sources
of storing water have reached their dead levels.
Likewise, the winters have shrunk from four to
months resulting in a decrease of rainfall.

Moving ahead, Pakistan has glaciers more than any

country in the world. However, due to the smaller
number of storage points, freshwater usually enters
the sea being unused. It is a world known-fact that
freshwater quantity is almost 3% only despite the
reason that water covers 70% of the earth in the form
of oceans. The temperature increase due to air
pollution and excessive use of industrial chemicals
have exacerbated the alarming crisis. The
extraordinary glaciers melting further intensifies the
issue. Recently, the contributions of snowmelt and
glaciers have been 35 to 40% and 30% respectively in

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CSS Magazine Edition 6

the freshwater. The abrupt increase not only alarms floods but also decreases the availability of freshwater
resources in the years to come.

Furthermore, the Indus water basin is the biggest water body flowing across different parts of the provinces
in the country. The basin is not only filled by the snow melting and glaciers but the contribution of other
small tributaries is equally significant. Few water channels add water to these bodies. However, it is highly
unfortunate to lose 40% of this water due to seepage loss. Such losses will prove to be catastrophic soon. On
the other hand, due to reduced storage capacity figures of dams and increasing quantity of dumping garbage
into the river bodies further escalates the numbers. Impurity of water bodies has been high in the industrial
cities e.g. Faisalabad and Lahore.

Now, this impurity of water lessens the availability of fresh water that is fit to drink. As a result, the effects of
impure water on health are even more dangerous. This contribution can be well understood by knowing the
facts and figures. In this regard, 30% of diseases are water-borne because of the impure constituents.
Moreover, according to the news report, 40% of deaths occur due to the aforementioned reason. The
rural-urban divide is another vivid instance i.e. 70% of people dwelling in the rural areas are deprived of clean
water.

To know more, a hydrographic survey in 2015 states that the storage capacity of Tarbela dam has declined by
30% and it will continue going down in the upcoming years. Since Pakistan is an agrarian country, so 70% of
the population is involved in agriculture directly or indirectly. However, the contribution of this population
accounts for 26% of GDP. One another considerable aspect is the lack of biological waste treatment facilities.
Apart from Karachi and Islamabad, no city has this facility.

Besides the cited aspects of water scarcity in the country, one of the main obstacles in ameliorating water
needs has been the country’s political environment. An example shall elucidate the point. In 2003 the
president urged on the constitution of Kalabagh dam, yet again the political resistance from the provinces
stopped the progress and has been in static condition since then. Along with that, solar tube wells are
provided to the citizens in some parts of the Baluchistan Province. This may fulfill the needs for the time
being. But the results will be disastrous shortly. Not only the water table has lowered in those parts due to
the excessive installation of the tube wells but the research reports depict the lowering down of the earth
level in meters in such regions. This will affect the already constructed structure and will compel the locals
upon migration if mitigated improperly. (The graph below shows groundwater extraction in Pakistan)

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CSS Magazine Edition 6

Notwithstanding, what has happened has happened. Now the only way to show wisdom is the application and
practice of the best available options. The scarcity has to be encountered at any cost. Below are some
remedial measures.

First of all, the freshwater wasted needs to be curbed. To clarify the statements, awareness programs shall be
conducted by the governments. The citizens in general and the public in specific shall stick to and practice all
the measures taught to them.

Secondly, the farmers shall be educated about the new irrigation techniques and the latest technologies that
counter the loss of water. E.g. dripping system of water ought to be introduced. New ways of watering
agricultural land shall be practiced by the farmers to produce a greater amount of product.

Another option to retard water loss is the construction of large dams. Fortunately, the incumbent
government has already initiated the step. In the same way, more dams need to be constructed well before
time. Another good step taken i.e. according to NWP (National Water Policy) 2018, is 10% of the national
public sector developing program will be reserved for water infrastructure. Indeed, it will prove to be a
positive indicator in the year to come.

The sum and substance of the above analysis is that being aware of all the aspects causing water crisis in
Pakistan, every single citizen shall play a part by avoiding useless waste of water e.g. Turn off the water tap,
while brushing teeth, when not in use. The government shall take all necessary steps and measures to
minimize the scarcity and provide the people at least reasonable access to water i.e. production of 20-liter
water per person per day within 1km. Should the people and departments fail in the initial phase, the
situation will be more perplexed and terrifying in the years to come

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 CSS Magazine edition 6

Essay Special
 Democracy in
Pakistan:
Hopes and
Hurdles
By Malik Bedar Bakht
“Democracy is the worst form of government
except for all the others that have been tried.”
Winston Churchill

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CSS Magazine Edition 6

Outline

1.Introduction
Although democracy in Pakistan faces certain hurdles; however, some bright rays of hope are also
discernable on the national horizon.

2.What is democracy?
a.Principles of democracy.
b.Status of democracy in Pakistan.

3.What are the hurdles for democracy in Pakistan?

a.Power asymmetry between political and military institutions.
b.Feudalistic, elite dominated, clientelist political order.
c.Low literacy rate of 57%.
d.Disrespect of parliamentary norms by parliamentarians.
e.Polarized politics; political and social polarization.
f.Judicial activism undermining publicly elected institutions.
g.Lack of institutional reforms; little checks and balances on executive, NAB reforms.
h.Poor internal democracy of political parties.

4.What are the hopes for democracy in Pakistan?

a.Constitutional protection for democratic system; passage of 18th amendment
b.Devolution of power to provinces; NFC award.
c.Improving democratic ethos; longest uninterrupted period of democracy.
d.Public sentiment against military coups in the world; Turkey.
e.Emergence of new political parties and politicization of youth.
f.Emerging middle class, 40% of Pakistan’s population is middle-class.
g.Emergence of media as 4th pillar of state.
h.Provisional status of a province being considered for Gilgit Baltistan.

5.Way forward: What practical steps should be taken to strengthen democracy in Pakistan?
a.Local governments should be empowered; logical conclusion of power devolution.
b.Provinces should have their own constitutions for their empowerment; like in USA.
c.Bicameral legislature in provinces for their empowerment; like in USA.
d.New provinces should be created to promote inclusivity.

6.Conclusion
Despite numerous challenges, democracy in Pakistan is showing promise; the practical measures mentioned
above will go a long way to help democracy succeed in Pakistan.

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Democracy has proven to be the most successful

model of political organization in the history of
mankind according to the political scientist, Francis
Fukuyama. In Pakistan, however, democracy has not
been allowed to take root for several reasons including
prolonged periods of military rule. To this day,
Pakistan continues to face a plethora of hurdles to its
democratic system including civil-military relations
and elite dominated political order. On the other hand,
some bright rays of hope for democracy are visible in
the shape of passage of 18th amendment, the currently
ongoing longest uninterrupted period of democracy,
and emergence of media as the 4th pillar of state.
Moreover, in order to strengthen democracy in
Pakistan, some pragmatic measures, like
empowerment of local government bodies and
creation of new provinces, need to be taken. Although
democracy in Pakistan faces certain hurdles; however,
some bright rays of hope are also discernable on the
national horizon.

In order to understand the hopes and hurdles of

democracy in Pakistan, it is important to understand
the principles that characterize democracy.
Democracy is characterized by principles such as
written constitution, presence of multiple political
parties, constitutional protection of fundamental
rights, free media, rule of law, independence of
judiciary, vigilance, educated citizenry, spirit of
toleration, removal of gross inequalities, and
protection of minority rights. These are the principles
which are generally present in a successful democratic
nation. Therefore, if a nation has it, then it can be said
to be democratic.

Now analyzing the status of democracy in Pakistan

based on these principles, we can safely say that
democracy is in a poor health in Pakistan on at least
on some indicators. This is because the electronic
media is often censored in Pakistan in the form of
blackouts, newspapers are prevented from publishing
content against the ruling parties. Also, gross
inequalities are present in our society with a large
portion of population living below the poverty line.
Moreover, rule of law is completely absent. It takes
generations for people to get justice. The police force
is characterized by corruption and nepotism as well.
Furthermore, the accountability system is
dysfunctional with political victimization all too
prevalent in the name of accountability. Also, the level
of education in the populace is abysmally low. Hence,
the status of democracy in Pakistan is in poor health.

Having shed light on the poor status of democracy in

Pakistan, it is imperative to have a look at the hurdles
to a successful democratic system in Pakistan. Firstly,
there is power imbalance between political and
non-political institutions. This is because since its
inception Pakistan has been a security conscious

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CSS Magazine Edition 6

state, not least because of a hostile neighbor in the shape of India. This has led to overdependence on
military which is an organized and disciplined institution. Throughout Pakistan’s history, a vacuum has been
created either because of absence of able leadership in the initial years after the death of Quaid or constant
infighting between the political parties. This vacuum created the pre-requisites for the all-powerful military
in Pakistan to intervene in politics throughout its history. On the other hand, the political institutions and
political parties are ill-disciplined and there is constant infighting between them to this day. Hence, the
power asymmetry between political and military institutions is one of the hurdles to democracy in Pakistan.

Secondly, the feudalistic, elite dominated and clientelist political order is another hurdle for democracy in
Pakistan. Most of the parliamentarians in parliament belong either to elite industrialist or feudal families. On
the other hand, majority of the population in Pakistan is middle-class. This non-representation of population
in the parliament is erosive of democracy. Also, these parliamentarians have their beneficiary networks of
political contacts who get benefited in the shape of government jobs and welfare programs. As a result, the
poor population is largely excluded from the political setup. Therefore, feudalistic, elite dominated political
order is a hurdle for democracy in Pakistan.

Thirdly, low literacy rate of 57% in Pakistan is another major hurdle for democracy. This is because the
uneducated population is unaware of their fundamental rights which democracy is supposed to protect. Also,
uneducated population is unable to be vigilant and is unable to hold the government accountable. They are
often misled by false promises of local feudal lords and are unaware how their power of vote should be rightly
used. Moreover, they are unaware of the parameters on which they should hold their leaders accountable.
Consequently, Pakistan’s low literacy rate as compared to its neighbors is a hurdle for democracy.

Fourthly, disrespect of parliamentary norms by parliamentarians is yet another hurdle for democracy in
Pakistan. The attendance of parliamentarians in parliament frequently falls below 25%. This is significantly
low when we compared with developed democratic countries. When parliamentarians disrespect the
parliament, a message is sent to the general populace as well as other powerful institutions that
democratically elected institutions should be held in low regard. As a result, this creates greater space for
military and judicial spheres to interfere in the democratic setup. Hence, the disrespect of parliamentary
norms by parliamentarians is a significant hurdle for democracy in Pakistan.

Fifthly, polarized politics is another important hurdle for democracy in Pakistan. Currently, Pakistan’s society
is highly polarized both politically and socially. This is largely because of the divisive rhetoric of the major
political parties. War of words between the members of government and that of opposition is a common
occurrence in Pakistan. Also, there is no consensus on major issues between the parties as was evident in the
case of covid-19 pandemic. The divisive rhetoric of the leaders on both sides of the fence, in turn divides their
voter base as well, leading to social polarization. As a result, the spirit of tolerance is eroding in the society.
As was witnessed in the case of Chile in the 1970s, this polarization creates space for non-democratic actors
and becomes the breeding ground for military coups. Therefore, polarized politics is a hurdle for democracy
in Pakistan.

Sixthly, judicial activism in Pakistan is another significant hurdle for democracy in Pakistan. In Pakistan,
unlike USA, there is no check on the powers of judiciary. The members of superior judiciary are appointed by
Judicial Commission which is largely comprised of judges as well. Also, the removal of judges of supreme
court is done by Supreme Judicial Council which is also comprised of judges. As a result, the judiciary in
Pakistan can do whatever it pleases in the form of Suo moto actions and can interfere with the domain of
democratically elected institutions like the parliament and prime minister, which undermines democracy.
Hence, judicial activism is a major hurdle for democracy in Pakistan.

Seventhly, lack of much needed institutional reforms is yet another hurdle for democracy in Pakistan. In the
true spirit of representative democracy, the parliament should be supreme in Pakistan. However, we see that
it has limited powers. For example, the budget approved by parliament can be significantly changed by the
executive (Prime Minister), which is not the case in western democracies like the USA. Also, there is no check
on the international treaties signed by the executive, unlike in USA where senate ratifies every international
treaty done by the President. Moreover, NAB – the accountability watchdog – is in need of reforms as well. As
accountability is one of the major pillars of democracy, NAB should be reformed in a way that it should be
seen as doing across the board accountability. Also, it should have a sufficient cause for arrest rather than
doing the arrests arbitrarily. Thus, lack of institutional reforms, particularly of parliament and NAB, are a
hurdle for democracy in Pakistan.

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Eighthly, poor internal democracy of political parties is another hurdle to democracy in Pakistan. Before the
2018 elections, the major political parties did conduct internal elections. However, these elections were
merely a formality and the same party stalwarts got important positions as they were before the intra-party
elections. This is detrimental to democracy because it sends the message that democracy is merely a formali-
ty and you have to get to power by whatever means possible. This further removes public trust in democratic
process and democratic institutions which is a hurdle for democracy in Pakistan.

Having expounded on the hurdles faced by democracy in Pakistan, it is imperative to look at the hopes for
democracy in Pakistan. Thankfully, all is not doom and gloom and there are some bright signs discernable on
the horizon which are positive for democracy.

Firstly, constitutional protection of the democratic system is the most important hope for democracy in
Pakistan. Previously, the notorious article 58 2 (b) allowed the president to dissolve assemblies arbitrarily.
This undermined the democratically elected institutions. However, the passage of 18th amendment in 2010,
took this power away from the president. As a result, there is greater stability in the democratic process and
the confidence of public in the democratic institutions is getting restored as well. Consequently, the passage
of 18th amendment provides protection to democratic system and is a hope for democracy.

Secondly, devolution of power to provinces is another hope for democracy in Pakistan. Democracy thrives on
inclusivity and devolution of power, where no one feels left out or marginalized. The 18th amendment includ-
ed NFC award which increased the share of provinces in the federal divisible pool from 47.5% to 57.5%. This
empowers provinces which is beneficial for democracy. Also, more legislative powers were given to provinces
in the 18th amendment, and the subjects of health and education came under their domain. Hence, the
devolution of power to provinces is second most important hope for democracy.

Thirdly, improving democratic ethos in Pakistan are another hope for democracy. Pakistan entered its longest
period of continuous democracy in 2017, in its entire history. This shows that all the stakeholders, including
the politicians, military and the general public are embracing the democratic ethos. This provides strength to
democracy because democratic culture is vital for democracy to thrive. And merely the democratic process,
characterized by holding elections is not sufficient. Therefore, improving democratic ethos is another hope
for democracy in Pakistan.

Fourthly, public sentiment against military coups in the world is yet another hope for democracy. This was
evidenced in the failed military coup in Turkey in 2016. Previously, for example, in the 1980s, Turkish military
had been successfully able to subvert the democratic process and implement military rule. However, the

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CSS Magazine Edition 6

present global climate in the support of democracy has changed the perception of military coups. World has
seen the fate of military leaders like Hitler, Mussolini and Stalin bringing destruction for their countries. On
the other hand, the success of democracies like USA and UK is there for all to see as well. As a result, this
global sentiment against military coups is a hinderance to military coups in Pakistan as well because the
military feels that the public will come out in support of its democratic leaders in Pakistan as it did in Turkey.
Thus, global sentiment against military coups is a hope for democracy in Pakistan.

Fifthly, emergence of new political parties and politicization of youth is another hope for democracy. As
discussed in the principles of democracy above, the presence of multiple political parties is a characteristic
of successful democracy. The rise of a third political party in Pakistan also reduces the chances of Pakistan
becoming a one-party communist state like in China. Also, the youth, which comprises 60% of Pakistani
population has become politicized. This means that the elected representatives will be representatives of a
larger section of population, which is supportive of democratic ethos. Hence, emergence of new political
parties and politicization of youth is a hope for democracy.

Sixthly, another hope for democracy is the emergence of middle class. Due to rural-urban migration, a large
proportion of Pakistani population is becoming part of the middle-class. Currently, it comprises 40% of the
Pakistani population. This urban middle class is usually educated, and becomes part of the civil society and
media. Also, they are more vigilant in terms of how the country is being governed. Therefore, the emergence
of middleclass is a hope for democracy in Pakistan.

Seventhly, another important hope for democracy in Pakistan is the emergence of media as the 4th pillar of
state. Usually, there are three pillars of state, the executive (Prime Minister in Pakistan), the legislative
(National Assembly and Senate) and Judiciary. But the emergence of media since the 2000s has led to greater
accountability for politicians, civil servants and the military. The 24-hour running tv channels of Pakistan are
able to report every misgiving of the government. As a result, an informed citizenry is created which is in line
with democracy. As the saying goes, “Democracy dies in darkness”. Thus, the emergence of media as the 4th
pillar of state is a hope for democracy.

Eighthly, likelihood of giving provisional provincial status to Gilgit Baltistan is another hope for democracy in
Pakistan. This is because, geopolitics aside, it is a sign that new provinces can be created in Pakistan through
constitutional means. And the neglected communities of Pakistan can be empowered through the democrat-
ic process. Gilgit Baltistan has long remain neglected in Pakistan so consideration of giving it a provisional
provincial status is a hope for democracy.

Having expounded on the hopes and hurdles for democracy in Pakistan, it is imperative to see what are the
practical steps which can be taken by Pakistan so that its democracy can be strengthened.

Firstly, the most important step to strengthen democracy is that local governments should be empowered in
Pakistan. After the 18th amendment, the subject of local government falls under the domain of provincial
governments. However, provincial governments are not keen to strengthen these local bodies because they
can be used as patronage networks of central government, therefore undermining provincial governments, as
has been done in the past in the Musharraf and Zia era. Nevertheless, local government bodies are a logical
conclusion of devolution of power in a democracy and should be empowered. They bring tremendous bene-
fits like greater accountability, political participation of neglected areas, and so on. Thus, local government
bodies should be empowered to strengthen democracy in Pakistan.

Secondly, another practical step to strengthen democracy in Pakistan is that provinces should have their own
constitutions. In Pakistan, no provincial constitutions are present, in contrast with USA where all the 50
states have their own constitutions. The benefit of a provincial constitution is that it empowers the province
to have its own code of conduct in dealing with matters. It prevents the power from being concentrated in
the central government which is against democratic norms. Thus, provincial constitutions should be enacted
to strengthen democracy in Pakistan.

Thirdly, yet another step to strengthen democracy in Pakistan is the creation of bicameral legislature in
provinces. In Pakistan, the provinces are unicameral, in contrast with USA, where all the states are bicameral.
The benefit of a bicameral legislature is that just like the upper house of the national legislature gives the
provinces greater say in the running of the country, similarly, an upper house in the province gives greater
say to different districts and divisions in the running of the province. This ensures that marginalized areas

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are given representation in a democracy. Hence, bicameral legislature should be created in provinces to
strengthen democracy in Pakistan.

Fourthly, new provinces should be created to further strengthen democracy in Pakistan. This is because
creation of new provinces allows the underdeveloped areas to get developed. In Pakistan, the areas like South
Punjab, Interior Sindh and Hazara have historically been underdeveloped. Giving them provincial status and
increasing their development would promote a feeling of inclusivity and a greater number of people will get
their fundamental rights in Pakistan. Therefore, creation of new provinces should be done to strengthen
democracy in Pakistan.

Summing it all up, there are countless challenges to democracy in Pakistan. But despite these challenges,
democracy in Pakistan is showing some ominous signs. It is high time, that practical steps specified above
should be taken so that democracy is strengthened in Pakistan.

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 #CSS_Josh_Talks

WHAT IS YOUR

CSS JOURNEY OF
HUMZA ABBAS

Hamza Abbas

13TH POSITION
CSS 2019
Keys to
Success
by
Hamza
Abbass

Hello CSS Aspirants,

Today, I'll be talking to you
about a few things one should
have in mind while going for the
Civil Services Examination. I'll
only be emphasizing upon two
things which, in my humble
point of view, are probably the
most important things with
regards to civil service
examination.
I. Clear Mindset:
One should be very clear as to why he
or she is going for this examination
because considering its nature and
taking into account how strenuous it is,
it becomes very difficult to cope up
with the pressure that this particular
examination entails. In order to
overcome this particular pressure, it is
important that you have the right
approach and that right approach will
never be possible unless you're not
clear headed. If you are not clear about
your goals and what do you want to
achieve through civil services, acing this
examination is going to be a very big
task for you. I'll give you my example.
I was working at WWF Pakistan as a
research officer in a very reputable
department. After having worked there
for some TIME, I realized that wherever
this organization takes me in the near
future, I will probably never be satisfied
and I had my reasons. Understanding
that this is not exactly what I want and
there is something else that attracts me,
that is still vacant and that has to be
filled, this realization in itself propelled
me to prepare for civil services
examination during the course of my
job. So, I hope I have made myself clear
when it comes to why it is important to
have a clear mind.
II. Know your strengths and
weaknesses
Now moving forward to the second point that I really wanted to emphasize upon is
related to the strategy one should be having for this examination. It basically relates to
your strengths and weaknesses. It is more of a principle of knowing yourself. Once you
know why you want to go for CSS, it is important that you evaluate your own self and
determine what your strengths and weaknesses are. Once you are aware of your
strengths, trust me you'll be able to maneuver them in the right manner; once you are
aware of your weaknesses, only then you'll be able to work upon them. If you are
ignorant about your strengths or weaknesses, you're not giving it your best and you're
not at your best. This evaluation will definitely help you secure good marks in the
examination. I've seen a lot of people who have a sea of knowledge but they, for some
reason, are unable to excel in this examination and in the same manner, I've seen
people who have considerably less knowledge but they still succeed in this
examination. Thus, knowledge is not the only criterion; there are other criteria as well
and those criteria are very subjective in nature. They have to fit with your strengths and
weaknesses. I'll give you my example again. I knew that one of my weaknesses was that
I probably did not have the right amount of knowledge set since I was also doing a full
time job. I knew this was my weakness; I worked upon it. At the same time, I knew my
strength and my strength was that I was able to jot down my thoughts in a very logical
and chronological manner. My arguments were really strong and it was something that
was going to distinguish me and it did. In the same manner, I knew my weakness. I knew
that my handwriting was very poor and if I don't work upon improving my handwriting
then no matter how good I am at devising arguments, they're not going to mean
anything. I literally had to put in consecutive two to three months to improve my
handwriting and that I did. I made it legible enough for the examiner to understand and
until I was successful. So, these are my two cents when it comes to Civil Service
Examination. First, you should be very clear headed as to why you want to go for CSS
and secondly, you should be well aware about your strengths and weaknesses. I hope
that this particular talk helps all of you and gives you a perspective as to what you
should be expecting from the examination and how you should be preparing for it. Best
of luck!
"You are THE GREATEST PROJECT, you will ever work on"
~anonymous
 CSS Magazine edition 6

Monthly
Press Review
CSS Magazine Edition 5
Monthly
Press Review
China and
India’s Stakes
in the Qatar
Conflict
Both India and China welcomed
the outcome of last week’s Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC)
summit, where Saudi Arabia, the
UAE, and Bahrain promised to end
their diplomatic and economic
blockade of Qatar and Qatar
agreed to drop pending lawsuits
against them.
The reopening of borders in the
Gulf may result in a resurgence in
intra-regional trade, investment,
and connectivity. Indian and
Chinese business may similarly
benefit from that development
and prompt political leaders to
congratulate themselves for not
having taken sides in public when
the conflict first erupted back in
June 2017.
China’s government may also see
the dispute’s resolution as
vindication for its approach
toward conflict management, in
particular that of “peace through
development.” For the Chinese
this entails political mediation
that is linked to economic
development and connectivity
through infrastructure projects
associated with its Belt and Road
Initiative.
However, Indian and Chinese
leaders would be advised to
contain the self-congratulation.
Not only has Chinese involvement
been largely absent in the
deliberations that led to the
settlement at Al-Ula, but both
sides adopted positions that in
practice accommodated Saudi
Arabia and the UAE during the
past three and a half years.
If there is an achievement, it lies
in India’s and China’s ability to
ride the waves generated by the
crisis. Initially, the dispute looked
as if it could not have come at a
worse time for both the Indian
and Chinese governments. For
one, the region was – and remains
– a key source of oil and gas for
the two countries. For another,
the nature of economic exchange
and interaction between them and
the Gulf had been progressively
growing.
During the year before the
rupture, the Chinese government
had set out a more active strategy
in the region. In 2016 it published
an Arab policy paper. It had also
restarted negotiations on a free
trade agreement with the GCC,
which Beijing believed it was close
to achieving only a month before
the dispute began.
Like China, India was also
pursuing a more active regional
role. After becoming prime
minister in 2014, Narendra Modi
had begun to recalibrate India’s
foreign policy and pursue greater
political and economic ties with
the Gulf. The dispute not only
presented a challenge to that
effort, but also raised fears in the
government for the 6.5 million
strong Indian diaspora in Saudi
Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.
Although both the Indian and
Chinese governments expressed
concern, those fears outweighed
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the reality. The Gulf states did not
press India or China to pick a side
and nor did the Asian powers offer
to do so – which demonstrated
their importance to each other.
This practical consideration was
evident even as the circumstances
changed within the region. As
established trade routes and ties
were closed to Qatar, it searched
out alternative partners, including
Turkey and Iran, while also
investing in domestic production.
Meanwhile, Indian and Chinese
firms continued to operate on
both sides and remittances from
Indian workers continued to flow
back home.
Yet even as Indian and Chinese
political and business leaders
adjusted to the changes taking
place within the Gulf, there was
another implicit shift between the
region and the Asian powers: one
in which the China and India
prioritized Saudi Arabia and the
UAE over Qatar.
The reasons for doing so made
practical sense. Politically and
economically, Saudi Arabia and
the UAE were – and are – far more
important in the region than
Qatar. Economically, the two Gulf
states figure among both India’s
and China’s largest trading
partners. At the same time, the
changes imposed on Qatar meant
that it could not afford to lose
partners like India and China.
Despite this, Qatar fared relatively
less well than its rivals. While
China’s total trade with Qatar
doubled between 2016 and 2019,
its investments in the country
were more modest in 2017-19.
They totaled $900 million
compared to $12.55 billion in Saudi
CSS Magazine Edition 5
Arabia and $20.35 billion in the
UAE. Meanwhile, India’s total
trade with Qatar fell by 39 percent
during the 2014-19, which was
more than the 27 percent fall in
total trade with Saudi Arabia.
Trade with the UAE, meanwhile,
increased 12 percent in the same
period.
The disparity between the Saudis
and the UAE on one side and
Qatar on the other was also
evident in the nature of the Gulf
states’ political cooperation with
India and China as well. By 2018
China had established
comprehensive strategic
partnerships with Saudi Arabia
and the UAE – the highest form of
engagement it can offer another
country. In contrast, China’s
relationship with Qatar was only a
strategic partnership, which it
had agreed in 2014 and showed no
interest in upgrading when Sheikh
Tamim Al Thani visited Beijing in
2019.
India has similarly expansive
arrangements with Saudi Arabia
and the UAE. It established a
Strategic Partnership Council
with Riyadh and has also sought
to cultivate closer security ties
with the two. In recent years that
has been expressed in its efforts
to bring Riyadh and Abu Dhabi
onboard in India’s rivalry with
Pakistan. That has included
gaining their acquiescence in 2019
to the constitutional changes
made regarding the status of the
disputed Jammu and Kashmir
region and in last month’s visit by
the Indian army chief to both
countries.
Looking ahead, the imbalance
between the Gulf states in the
eyes of Indian and Chinese
policymakers will remain. But
whereas the conflict exposed
them, its resolution should
obscure them again. That should
therefore enable the growing
connectivity between the Gulf
states and the Asian powers to
continue on its present trajectory.
Yet even as this happens, they will
likely continue to keep a wary eye
on the Gulf, especially the
differences between the Saudis
and the UAE over how fast to
reconcile, with the latter being
less enthusiastic.
Published in The Diplomat
Iran Toughens
Rhetoric as
Biden Looks to
Salvage
Nuclear Talks
In the run up to what will
certainly be renegotiation around
its nuclear ambitions and
sanctions with a new U.S.
administration come January 20,
Iran continues to play hardball.
Reuters reported on January 9
that according to Ahmad
Amirabadi Farahani, an Iranian
member of parliament, the
country will expel International
Atomic Energy Agency inspectors
if sanctions against it are not
lifted by February 21, in
accordance with a law passed by
Iran’s parliament in December.
The Trump administration, whose
decision to walk out of the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA) in 2018 has led to a
reignition of Iran’s nuclear
ambitions and rise in Iran-U.S.
tensions, reacted to this
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development according to
predictable lines. A statement by
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
on January 9 noted: “Iran’s threat
goes much further than violating
the JCPOA. Iran has a legal treaty
obligation to allow IAEA inspector
access pursuant to Iran’s
NPT-required safeguards
agreement. Violating those
obligations would thus go beyond
Iran’s past actions inconsistent
with its JCPOA nuclear
commitments.”
On January 4, Iran had resumed
enrichment of uranium to 20
percent in its Fordow nuclear
facility, a significant intermediate
step toward obtaining
weapons-grade uranium.
Commenting on this development,
Pompeo’s January 9 statement
exclaimed: “The world’s top
sponsor of terrorism should not
be allowed to enrich uranium at
any level.”
Iran seized a South Korean tanker
on January 4 on, ostensibly,
environmental grounds. South
Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister Choi
Jong-kun arrived in Iran on
January 10 to secure its release.
According to Iranian state
television as quoted by the South
China Morning Post, Iran’s Deputy
Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi
told Choi that South Korea
“should refrain from politicising
the issue and fruitless propaganda
and allow the legal proceedings to
proceed.”
The acting U.S. Secretary of
Defense Chris Miller announced
on January 4 that the aircraft
carrier USS Nimitz will continue
to be deployed in the western
Indian Ocean “due to the recent
CSS Magazine Edition 5
threats issued by Iranian leaders
against President Trump and
other U.S. government officials.”
The Nimitz was scheduled to
return state side after a 10-month
deployment in the area.
The incoming Biden
administration is looking to
reenter the JCPOA. According to
Jake Sullivan, Biden’s choice for
the position of national security
advisor, “if Iran is prepared to
return to compliance with the
Iran nuclear deal…then the United
States is prepared to return to
compliance with its obligations
under the Iran nuclear deal…and
then would work intensively on
follow on agreements to address a
range of different issues related to
Iran’s nuclear program, including
timelines, and including other
questions.”
Sullivan and then-Deputy
Secretary of State William Burns –
who earlier today was nominated
by Biden to serve as the director
of Central Intelligence Agency –
had served as a back channel in
negotiations with Iran in the lead
up to the JCPOA. In a March 2019
interview to Foreign Policy, Burns
suggested that a new
administration coming in this year
will have to find a way to re-enter
the JCPOA, albeit in a way that
assuages criticism of the deal.
“If you had a circumstance where
you had a new administration and
you don’t have any big escalation
in the meantime, the
comprehensive agreement is still
hanging out there—supported to
the extent they can by the
Europeans and others—then the
challenge would be to renew our
participation in the agreement
and then address some of the
concerns people have had with
the agreement,” Burns said.
Published in The Diplomat
Why did the
Supreme Court
stay the laws
now?
In a setback to Prime Minister
Narendra Modi’s agenda on
Tuesday, India’s Supreme Court
suspended the implementation of
the controversial agricultural laws
passed last year that pushed
hundreds of millions of farmers to
go on strike—in some senses, the
largest protest in India’s history,
and perhaps the world’s. “The
[government of] India has to take
the responsibility,” the court said
on Tuesday. “The laws have
resulted in a strike and now you
have to solve the strike.”
For India’s farmers, the Supreme
Court move doesn’t go far
enough—they had been calling for
a full repeal of the new farm
laws—making it likely that tens of
thousands will continue their
protests, choking traffic and
business around the capital New
Delhi.
Economists have long agreed that
India’s agriculture sector needed
reform: Farmlands are mostly
controlled by small families and
lack efficiencies of scale, and
middlemen often bloat supply
chains and suck up profits. But
Modi’s market-friendly laws hit an
obstacle when farmers—the very
people who should benefit from
the new rules—said they weren’t
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consulted.
Why did the farm laws trigger a
major protest movement?
Modi pushed three major farm
reform bills through Parliament in
what the government said was an
effort to regularize the country’s
farming industry by removing
taxes and other financial burdens
on farmers. But like many of
Modi’s major projects, the farm
bills were passed without input
from key farming groups or
agricultural unions.
According to farmers, the laws
represent a unilateral attempt to
open up the agricultural
industry—which employs about
half of the entire Indian
workforce—to private interests,
while removing the few legal
protections keeping many farmers
afloat. The legislation makes no
mention of the minimum support
price, a financial safety net for
farmers that guarantees a set
payment for key crops even if the
market takes a hit.
Protesters began gathering in
New Delhi last August, even
before the farm bills became law
the following month. Tens of
thousands of farmers joined from
around the country, and the
protests reached a peak on Nov.
26, when an estimated 250 million
people participated in a 24-hour
strike against the reforms—likely
the biggest protest in world
history.
Farmers have continued to gather
in New Delhi and other cities,
sometimes cutting off major
transport routes with their
caravans and temporary camps to
disrupt normal business and spur
governmental action.
CSS Magazine Edition 5
There are a couple of reasons that
India’s Supreme Court may have
chosen to act to suspend the farm
laws now.
Fears are growing that the largely
peaceful protests could turn
violent or lead to illness amid the
Indian winter and the coronavirus
pandemic. “We don’t want any
injuries or blood on our hands,”
Chief Justice Sharad Arvind Bobde
said during the hearings this
week. Dozens of deaths have been
reported during the protests,
including at least five farmers who
died by suicide and others who
succumbed to health issues.
Moreover, public health experts
worry that the massive gatherings
make social distancing and good
sanitation nearly impossible,
increasing the chance that the
protests become superspreader
events. India is besieged by the
coronavirus, with 10 million
Indians infected and 150,000
dead—most experts believe the
real number of people infected to
be orders of magnitude greater.
Another reason the court may
have taken action now is out of
concern that other groups with
political motives could co-opt the
demonstrations. Attorney General
K. K. Venugopal petitioned the
court to put a stop to the protests
on the grounds that the Khalistan
movement, a Sikh separatist group
that Modi’s government has
previously branded as “terrorists,”
had infiltrated the movement.
Officials are particularly
concerned about demonstrations
planned on Jan. 26 for Republic
Day—a national holiday that
protest leaders have been
preparing for since last year.
Is it all for show?
As part of its ruling, the Supreme
Court ordered the creation of a
four-person committee to take
into account farmers’ grievances
and make recommendations. But
protest leaders were quick to
condemn the picks as
pro-government, saying that they
wouldn’t accept the committee’s
recommendations.
After suffering from declining
profits and worsening working
conditions for years, some
protesters say they worry that
neither Modi nor the Supreme
Court will fulfill their promises if
the demonstration disbands
before any legislative actions are
final. Per the court’s decision, the
committee has up to two months
to submit its recommendations
after their first meeting date— a
much longer wait than many
farmers wanted.
For now, protest leaders say they
are in it for the long haul.
Published in The Foreign Policy
Israel and the
Emirates Are
the Middle
East’s New
Best Friends
The scenes since September 2020
have been scarcely believable.
Tens of thousands of Israelis have
been thronging the malls and
beaches of Abu Dhabi and Dubai;
Emiratis have posed for selfies in
Jerusalem; Israeli DJs are mixing
music for crowds of revelers at
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Dubai’s Burj Khalifa. In the Middle
East, banal tourism of this sort has
geopolitical weight. It is just one
expression of the deep diplomatic
impact of the normalization deal
between the United Arab Emirates
and Israel signed this past
September.
The Abraham Accords were a
high-level diplomatic
agreement—but they were far
more than that. They marked a
shift in national allegiances.
Israelis and Emiratis are not just
wary partners; they are
increasingly close allies. Israel has
previously found ways to coexist
with Arab regimes. This time, it
may have found a genuine friend.
The Abraham Accords mark the
most holistic agreement Israel has
ever inked with an Islamic
country. The long-standing deals
with Jordan and Egypt, signed in
the 1970s and 1990s, were
motivated by the need to keep
peace on two of the world’s most
contentious borders—and to
secure a pecuniary relationship
with the United States. “That was
a very cold peace,” said Sami
Nader, a Middle East analyst. “This
deal, however, is transformative.”
It includes agreements to
cooperate on tourism and
research and development to
combat the pandemic—and it
implies deeper cooperation still
on other issues.
The transformation has come at a
cost to the Palestinians.
Previously, most Arab nations
subscribed to the principles of the
Arab peace initiative first agreed
upon in 2002 and last reendorsed
in 2017, which stipulated that
normalization with Israel would
only occur if and when it
CSS Magazine Edition 5
retreated from the occupied
territories and an independent
Palestinian state with East
Jerusalem as its capital was
established.
The UAE reneged on this
commitment. By signing the
accords, it opened up to Israel
merely on the assurance that
Israel would stop encroaching any
further into Palestinian lands.
Israel has subsequently clarified
that annexation has just been
suspended, not stopped entirely.
The significance of the UAE’s
agreement to these terms reached
beyond the text itself. It gave an
excuse for three other
countries—Bahrain, Sudan, and
Morocco—to mend fences with
Israel in the following weeks.
Speculation is now rife that the
UAE might also be working to
convince Syria’s Bashar al-Assad
to sign a peace treaty with Israel.
The Syrian regime, which claims
to oppose Israel along with Iran,
has conspicuously shied from
strongly condemning the deal.
Instead, a video clip has circulated
online of a member of the Baath
Party, Mahdi Dakhlallah,
advocating for Syria to also sign a
peace agreement with its enemy.
Bassam Barabandi, a former
Syrian diplomat stationed at
Syria’s embassy in the United
States in 2011 and currently living
there in exile, said Dakhlallah’s
video clip was a few years old but
it was deliberately recirculated by
regime supporters in the
aftermath of the Abraham
Accords.
There are many reasons fueling
the UAE’s rapprochement with
Israel. Fatigue with the Palestinian
cause had long set in across the
region. But the UAE was also
pursuing its own regional
ambitions. Both Israel and the
UAE feel strongly that they face a
military threat from Iran. Over the
last decade, Iran expanded its
influence from Tehran through
Iraq and Syria all the way to
Lebanon. Iran’s proxy Hezbollah
already control south Lebanon
and during the Syrian war has also
dug its heels in southern Syria.
Emirati Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Zayed, widely perceived as the
architect of the deal, may have
also been motivated by a belief
that a closer relationship with
Israel would serve to deepen his
country’s future ties with the
United States—especially if
domestic Islamists ever stage an
Arab Spring-style uprising against
his monarchy.
By taking the initiative on
diplomatic outreach to Israel, the
UAE has also improved its
international reputation relative
to the more hesitant Saudi
government, which has still not
signed any such peace agreement.
“The UAE is now a regional
peacemaker. It is standing taller in
the world than it did before the
deal,” said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an
Emirati political analyst.
“Everyone in the West,
Washington, Paris, Berlin, all are
happy with the UAE, and we are in
the driver’s seat.”
The deal merely formalized an
already extensive relationship
between UAE and Israel. The two
countries had already been
cooperating for a decade on
foreign-policy initiatives. That
cooperation seems to have also
included an Emirati effort in Syria.
www.nearpeer.org
Former rebels and aid workers in
Quneitra in southern Syria, on the
border with Israel, attest that the
UAE may have acted in support of
Israeli interests during one stage
of the Syrian civil war. Abu Marya,
a rebel fighter from Quneitra,
received military training in
Jordan at a Military Operations
Center run by the United States,
the United Kingdom, the UAE, and
Saudi Arabia. “We had two tasks:
push out the jihadists and spread
a good word about Israel,” he
Foreign Policy. “The UAE used to
instruct the leaders of the factions
in the south to always praise Israel
in front of the civilians.”
Ahmad, an activist with the White
Helmets, the volunteer civil
defense force in Syria, who spoke
on the condition of anonymity,
was also trained in Jordan by the
Mayday Rescue Foundation as a
first-aid worker. His job included
transporting the severely injured
to the gates at the Israeli border,
where he often witnessed injured
rebel fighters from groups such as
the non-jihadi, Islamist Alwiya
al-Furqan cross over to Israel for
health treatment. “The members
of this group, and of other groups
in Quneitra, were supported by
Israel and also by the UAE,” he
said. “The UAE provided
humanitarian aid to the same
groups that were supported by
Israel from across the border.
Nothing happens by coincidence
in that region.”
“There were others too who sent
aid, but in the villages near the
border the aid was
overwhelmingly from the UAE,”
Ahmad said.
Mesnaya, an aid worker with a
local nongovernmental
CSS Magazine Edition 5

organizations called South Relief

and Development, showed videos America’s one knows for sure whether
Sputnik V or the vaccines that
of aid packages arriving in trucks Vaccine Sinopharm and Sinovac have

Diplomacy Is
branded with the Emirati flags developed are effective, or their
and said that field workers were adverse effects, but for China and
ordered to prioritize the provision
AWOL in the Russia those issues may be beside

Middle East
of aid to groups such as Alwiya the point.
al-Furqan. “We were asked to
prioritize distribution of medical It is possible to read too much
and food aid to families of fighters into these shifts. The novel
In the last few years, Egypt has
of Alwiya al-Furqan and others coronavirus has brought countries
spent more money on Russian
who were openly supported by to their knees, though the Middle
defense equipment than it has
Israel,” she said. “All the aid in our East has fared better than most
since the early 1970s. Cairo has
villages was from the UAE.” people initially believed. And some
also forged a substantial economic
Elizabeth Tsurkov, a fellow at the leaders in the region may be
relationship with Beijing. In 2017,
Center for Global Policy in calculating that less expensive
Turkey purchased Russia’s S-400
Washington, D.C., said that Alwiya vaccines produced in both Russia
air defense system and has
al-Furqan was indeed one of the and China are better than
expanded its commercial and
groups supported by Israel, nothing, even if the scientific data
diplomatic relations with China.
though she cautioned that it was is far from complete. Still, it is
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
possible that aid from Israel and hardly a stretch to see how
Emirates rolled out their red
the UAE ended up with the same receptivity to the Sputnik V and
carpets in 2019 for Vladimir Putin,
communities because of local Chinese-made vaccines among
while in 2018 Chinese President Xi
factors, rather than government U.S. friends in the region connects
Jinping spent three days in the
coordination. to the broader changes underway
UAE.
in the regional order.
Turning Syria into an Israeli ally, if
Everyone in Washington who is
that is indeed UAE’s current A short tour through the Middle
paying attention knows that
undertaking, will be a Sisyphean East will bring the extent of
America’s partners in the Middle
task. But the UAE’s deal with Israel vaccine diplomacy into sharp
East have been dallying with its
has already clarified the direction relief. In late December, Egypt
rivals. Beijing and Moscow have
in which the region’s most active began vaccinating health care
been investing, selling weaponry,
foreign-policy actors are workers with a Sinopharm
and, in the case of Russia,
heading—and how they are vaccine. Seeing as no one really
intervening directly in conflicts to
increasingly operating in tandem. knows how far and wide the virus
advance their interests in the
has affected Egyptian society, it
region. More recently, however,
In the meantime, the signs of makes sense for President Abdel
they have added a new instrument
unprecedented friendship and Fattah al-Sisi to take help where
of influence: the coronavirus
cultural exchange are everywhere. he can get it, but given the size of
vaccines.
Fabian Fayoli, a Frenchman from Beijing’s investment in the
Lyon, the head chef at a high-end country, the Egyptian leadership
Last spring, the term “mask
Dubai restaurant called Kaf, said has every reason to maintain
diplomacy” gained popularity to
he is preparing to host a growing strong ties with China—including
describe the way in which China
number of Israeli weddings. “The deploying one of its marquee
sought to advance its global
kosher operation will increase products. Egypt’s swift
influence through the provision of
dramatically,” he said, “and we acceptance of the Sinopharm
personal protective equipment to
must be ready for it.” vaccine is also part of Cairo’s push
countries in need. Now we have
to become a regional hub for
“vaccine diplomacy,” with a fair
Published in The Foreign Policy vaccine production and
number of America’s Middle
distribution, including Russia’s
Eastern partners signing up for
Sputnik V.
Russian or Chinese products. No

www.nearpeer.org
CSS Magazine Edition 5
In the true style of Gamal Abdel
Nasser-era “positive neutralism,”
in which the Egyptians sought to
play off the great powers to
extract maximum resources from
each, Cairo is also set to receive
50 million doses of the Pfizer and
AstraZeneca vaccines. This
reflects the way in which the
Egyptians see their overall
relationships with China, Russia,
the United States, and Europe.
They don’t want to be asked to
pick a team because they no
longer see a need to choose a
side.
Like its antagonist across the
Mediterranean, Turkey has also
begun inoculating its citizens with
a Chinese-made vaccine. The
Phase 3 trials of the Sinovac
product won’t end until February,
but the Turkish government
changed its regulations on
vaccines in order to hasten the
process. It suggests that things in
Turkey are worse than the
government is willing to let on
and comes at a time when Ankara
is alienated from its traditional
partners in Europe and the United
States. Though Turkey is getting a
modest batch of the Pfizer
vaccine, the government in
Ankara seems more eager to work
with Russia and China. A few
weeks after the Sinovac
announcement, Turkey
announced that it would produce
Sputnik V domestically. Turkish
officials have not yet committed
to using the vaccine on their
citizens, but that is clearly the
direction in which they are
moving. Appearing with his
Russian counterpart after a
meeting in Sochi, Turkish Foreign
Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu
indicated that it was only a matter
of receiving the technical data on
Sputnik V before it may be used.
It is true that Turkey and Russia
are on opposite ends of a variety
of regional conflicts, but they have
managed to contain and
compartmentalize those
differences in the service of their
larger goals; notably, Ankara’s
desire to be independent of the
West and Moscow’s interest in
weakening the Western alliance
and sowing division in the
European Union. That the Turks
and Russians are working together
on the vaccine will likely save
lives, but it also advances
strategic goals. When it comes to
China, like virtually everyone else
in the world, Turkish officials
want to benefit from commercial
ties and a potential counterweight
to the United States, even if it
means compromising on its
principles regarding the Uighurs.
It is a mixed bag among U.S.
partners in the Gulf. The Saudis
have sourced the Pfizer vaccine,
and the Qataris are using both the
Pfizer and Moderna shots. Oman
and Kuwait are using the Pfizer
vaccine, but Bahrain has also
moved forward with a Sinopharm
product, as have the Emiratis. The
ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed
bin Rashid Al Maktoum, was
photographed receiving the
Sinopharm vaccine. There is little
doubt that the Bahrainis and
Emiratis can afford the more
expensive Pfizer and Moderna
products, and they will likely use
them as well, yet the fact that
both countries have moved
forward fairly quickly with the
Sinopharm vaccine seems to
reflect what is happening broadly
in the Gulf. Countries are hedging
against a U.S. withdrawal and the
polarization of American politics
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that makes Washington a less
effective diplomatic, military, and
economic partner, leaving China
and Russia as plausible
alternatives.
Maybe in the grand scheme of
things vaccine diplomacy does not
mean much. Countries have to get
control over the virus, and the
Russians and Chinese are offering
cost-effective solutions. Yet even
when the United States pursued
controversial policies in the
Middle East, it was still regarded
as the gold standard in terms of
education, health care, research
and development, and technology
that made people’s lives better.
Never before has anyone really
wanted Russian or Chinese
products, but that no longer
seems to be the case, at least with
these vaccines. If Americans are
worried about the Chinese and
Russian challenge, the absence of
the United States in battling the
coronavirus in a variety of
important places, including the
Middle East, is glaring. It seems as
if controlling and then working to
wipe out infectious disease would
be low-hanging fruit with which
to win hearts and minds in the
region—and to outmaneuver
Moscow and Beijing in the
process.
Published in The Foreign Policy
CSS Magazine Edition 5

Qatar-GCC full relations have been restored

between Qatar and the four
relations with its neighbours.

agreement: A blockading nations, namely Saudi Rather than getting into a

victory for
Arabia, United Arab Emirates tit-for-tat battle with its
(UAE), Bahrain and Egypt. So, neighbours, Qatar chose to seek
measured what paved the way for the justice in international courts.

diplomacy
amicable resolution of this This level-headed strategy paid
dispute? And, perhaps even more off, with Qatar securing legal
importantly, what will be the victories against blockading
long-term consequences of this nations in international courts on
Qatar’s reliance on international
painful period of separation and issues ranging from human rights
law and measured diplomacy
animosity for Qatar and the and airspace violations to
paved the way for the amicable
region? intellectual property rights.
resolution of the Gulf crisis.

Qatar’s measured handling of Qatar also assumed a rational and

On January 5, during a Gulf
the crisis led to its resolution moderate stance on the
Cooperation Council (GCC)
One of the main factors that international arena, investing in
summit in Saudi Arabia, Gulf
allowed for the amicable multilateral cooperation with a
leaders signed a “solidarity and
resolution of this crisis was the wide range of partners. Despite
stability” agreement to end a
rational and measured diplomatic the Trump administration initially
three-and-a-half-year-long
strategy Qatar pursued against supporting the blockade, for
blockade against Qatar.
the blockading states in the last example, Doha continued to
three-and-a-half years. cooperate with the United States
The news generated great
on key issues, including
excitement among people in
From day one, acknowledging the supporting the US withdrawal
Qatar, who have long been eager
fact that the crisis can only be from Afghanistan by mediating
to reunite with their extended
resolved with the approval of the the Afghan peace process.
families living in other Gulf states
Saudi leadership, Qatar’s Emir
and resume business relations
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani This not only allowed Qatar to
with their neighbours. It was also
refrained from criticising King remain in close contact with the
applauded by the international
Salman or his son, Crown Prince Trump administration throughout
community, which is hungry for
Mohammed bin Salman. Similarly, the crisis, but also ensured that it
good news amid never-ending
he called on all his representatives will remain an important partner
conflicts, unprecedented social
and the Qatari people at large not to the US under the incoming
and political divisions, and a
to trade back the low rhetoric Biden administration
raging pandemic.
generating from some corners
within the blockading countries. Qatar’s reasoned response to the
Tuesday’s agreement marks the
Thanks to this pragmatic crisis, and commitment to
end of a highly destructive
approach, when the right international law and cooperation,
diplomatic rift which lasted longer
conditions for ending the led several countries that initially
than many in the region expected.
blockade emerged, Riyadh did not backed the blockade, such as
During this period, Qatar had to
see any shame in swiftly Jordan and Senegal, to change
withstand not only the crippling
re-establishing full diplomatic course and restore relations with
economic pressures instigated by
relations with Doha. the Gulf emirate.
the blockade, but also the
repeated attempts by the
Qatar also continued to supply gas Qatar’s capacity for critical
blockading nations to undermine
to the UAE through the Dolphin self-examination and eagerness to
its sovereignty and destabilise its
Gas Project throughout the crisis, correct its mistakes also
monarchy.
clearly demonstrating that it is contributed to the amicable
not willing to make any moves resolution of the crisis.
Now, however, Doha is once again
that would irreparably harm its Since the beginning of the
embraced by its neighbours and

www.nearpeer.org
CSS Magazine Edition 5
blockade, Qatar has been working
to determine, and address, the
factors that led to it being
perceived as a negative force in
the international arena by some of
its closest allies.
Most significantly, it realised how
negatively its support for the
masses who took to the streets
during the Arab Spring has been
perceived by the other Gulf
monarchies. As it realised that its
actions have led to it being seen
as a small state unduly
undermining its strategic
partners, it took some necessary
steps to correct this perception.
While remaining firm on issues of
sovereignty, the authorities in
Doha also made some necessary
alterations to its other policies
that were being questioned by the
blockading states.
To address the allegation that it is
“funding international terrorism”,
for example, Qatar brought all aid
organisations privately established
by Qatari families under the
Regulatory Authority for
Charitable Activities and gave this
body greater institutional powers.
Qatar also withdrew permission
to raise funds from any charitable
organisation that failed to
conform with standards of
accountability.
Meanwhile, Qatar did not give in
to the blockading nations’ demand
for the closure of Al Jazeera Media
Network. Rather than shuttering a
media organisation that has
become globally recognised and
respected for its high-quality
reporting, it focussed on
promoting the diversification of
the Qatari media sector. It
supported the growth of existing
channels, such as Al Araby TV, and
other emerging channels with
different editorial viewpoints to Al
Jazeera.
This approach appears to have
proved acceptable to all involved
parties, as Qatar’s Foreign
Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin
Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani
recently told Al Jazeera that the
issue of shutting down the
network was not raised during the
talks with the blockading quartet.
Qatar’s reliance on international
law and measured diplomacy was
undoubtedly the primary factor
that led to the resolution of this
crisis. By refusing to engage in a
tit-for-tat battle with the
blockading nations and
demonstrating its willingness for
cooperation in the international
arena, Qatar forced Saudi Arabia
and its allies’ hand to end the
blockade.
However, the timing of the
long-awaited “solidarity and
stability” agreement was also
likely tied to the developments in
the US. The Saudis knew that they
had much to gain from resolving
the issue before the end of
President Donald Trump’s term.
Unlike Trump, incoming President
Joe Biden issued strong criticism
of many features of Saudi Arabia’s
foreign policy during his election
campaign, demanding
accountability for the atrocities
committed during the Yemen war
and the assassination of dissident
journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Biden
was also expected to force the
involved parties to resolve the
Gulf crisis once he assumed
power, so Riyadh likely sped up
www.nearpeer.org
the reconciliation process to
adopt an appeasing stance in the
eyes of the incoming president.
The long-term impact of the
blockade
The blockade undoubtedly
harmed Qatar’s economy. It was
forced to inject $43bn from its
sovereign funds into banks in
order to stabilise its currency
during the financial crisis
triggered in the first few months
of the blockade.
The blockade’s negative impact on
Qatar’s economy, which was
already under pressure due to the
immense development project it
embarked on in preparation for
the 2022 FIFA World Cup, was
exacerbated by other global crises
that have hit the region during
this period, such as the COVID-19
recession and the oil crisis it
triggered in 2020. Leading Qatari
companies also suffered due to
these crises, with Qatar Airways
alone admitting to a $5bn loss.
Despite these considerable losses,
however, Qatar also managed to
use the blockade as an
opportunity to develop greater
self-sufficiency, which was long
overdue given the intrinsic
vulnerabilities of its
resource-based economy. During
the blockade, the country has
made strides towards becoming
more resilient in many areas from
food security to international
policy.
The blockade has also reinforced
social cohesion and resilience in
Qatar. In response to the
blockade, Qataris rallied around
the Emir and repeatedly
demonstrated their support for
the ruling monarchy.
CSS Magazine Edition 5
Meanwhile, the authorities used
the blockade as an opportunity to
resolve societal problems that
have long been attracting
criticism from both Qataris and
the international community.
They partnered with the
International Labour Organization
to reform the Kafala system and
pursue alternative methods of
regulating foreign residency in the
country. Discussions are even
being held on introducing an
elected shura to the government
system.
Future cooperation within the
GCC
After the
three-and-a-half-year-long
blockade, the relations between
the Gulf states are unlikely to go
back to how they were before.
As it stands, the GCC is a loose
organisation with no legal
bindings, meaning the council’s
expectations from its members
are largely implicit. This loose
structure, and its related
uncertainties, such as the lack of
clarity on the sort of relationship
member states can have with Iran
without upsetting the GCC, was
one of the reasons that led to the
blockade on Qatar. Oman and
Kuwait, who also have a pragmatic
approach towards Iran, have also
been negatively affected by this.
Going forward, to avoid crises
similar to the blockade from
emerging, the GCC will need to be
more explicit in terms of the
reciprocal obligations of its
member states. Perhaps more
importantly, all member states will
need to refrain from unduly
interfering in the affairs of other
Gulf countries.
All this will require a greater
degree of organisation and
coordination within the GCC.
Many analysts have interpreted
the reconciliation in the Gulf as a
threat to Iran. In reality, the
reconciliation between Qatar and
the rest of the GCC reduces the
possibility of a direct
confrontation between Iran and
the Gulf states. In recent years,
the UAE cultivated a strong
relationship with Israel and
started to pursue an increasingly
aggressive policy towards Iran.
Qatar’s involvement is likely to
reduce the UAE’s influence over
the GCC, and lead to the council
assuming a more moderate stance
towards Iran.
As the UAE is still less than
enthusiastic to reach a
compromise with Qatar on
numerous foreign policy issues,
including Iran, Saudi Arabia will
need to take the lead in bringing
GCC states together. It will need
to convince all member states,
including the UAE, to accept the
majority view that direct
confrontation with Iran is not to
the benefit of the GCC.
Published in The Al Jazeera
www.nearpeer.org
Has a ‘fifth
generation
war’ started
between India
and Pakistan?
What do recent revelations
about an Indian
disinformation campaign
against Pakistan tell us about
regional dynamics?
Earlier this month, the
Brussels-based organisation EU
DisinfoLab published an
investigative report titled Indian
Chronicles, which revealed a
staggering network of
misinformation and propaganda
against Pakistan.
The report exposed an operation
that took place over 15 years in 116
countries, featuring more than
500 fake media outlets and a
dozen fake NGOs. This network
endeavoured to push a pro-India
and anti-Pakistan narrative in the
European Union and the United
Nations.
In addition, the report implicated
Asian News International (ANI), an
Indian news agency, for covering
and disseminating fake news
produced by the network. Though
the report was careful not to tie
the network to the Indian state,
there is little doubt that such a
vast enterprise could and would
exist only with the government’s
knowledge.
The revelations led Pakistani
nationalists and supporters of its
security establishment to gleefully
remind opponents: “we told you
so”. If only critics were not
CSS Magazine Edition 5
steeped in blissful ignorance, if
only they realised the extent of
the security threats facing the
beleaguered Pakistani state, they
would lay off the army and
intelligence services.
These claims repeatedly deployed
one rhetorical cudgel – that of
“fifth-generation war”. The basic
idea behind this term is that in the
modern era, wars are not fought
by armies or guerrillas, but in the
minds of common citizens.
A ‘fifth-generation war’?
Perceptions, information,
propaganda, and “fake news” are
all tools in this ostensibly modern
form of warfare. In the wake of
the EU DisinfoLab report, it was
argued that Pakistan is facing a
new type of holistic war, one that
encompasses everything from
bombs to bots.
One problem with this logic is
that, at least as far as international
relations or international security
scholars are concerned,
“fifth-generation war” is not a
widely accepted idea. Searching
the content of five well-regarded
international relations or
international security
peer-reviewed journals –
International Security, Journal of
Conflict Resolution, Journal of
Peace Research, Journal of
Strategic Studies, and Security
Studies – the term
“fifth-generation war” does not
appear in the last five years, a
period in which these journals
have printed roughly 5 million
words between them. It would be
curious for such a revolutionary
concept to have escaped the eye
of experts in the field.
In all likelihood, this lack of
scholarly attention to
fifth-generation war is because its
validity is limited. The term brings
to mind another oft-repeated
refrain, that of “hybrid war”, one
that became popular amongst the
Transatlantic security community
to describe Russian foreign policy
and alleged acts of sabotage
perpetrated by its intelligence.
As with “fifth-generation war”,
critics say that “hybrid war” was in
many ways is a meaningless term,
conjoining disparate elements of
war with the practice of
diplomacy.
All war is politics, but not all
politics is war
In truth, terms such as
“fifth-generation war” and “hybrid
war” are often used to lend a
veneer of strategic gravitas to
ultimately vapid analysis. Contrary
to such breathless arguments, the
practice of amplifying fissures in
adversaries’ societies was well
established by the early 20th
century. Indeed, since the end of
World War II, such tools have
become a standardised element of
counter-intelligence tactics.
For instance, the Soviet Union and
the United States sponsored
propaganda and misinformation
against each other during the
Cold War. The US eagerly
expanded the scope of its
propaganda and psychological
operations under President
Dwight Eisenhower and went on
to build an impressive
infrastructure of institutions, such
as Voice of America and Radio
Free Europe, that were devoted to
the task.
For its part, the USSR enjoyed
focusing on racism in the US.
www.nearpeer.org
Propaganda posters would often
juxtapose symbols of American
democracy, such as the Statue of
Liberty, with emblems of slavery,
racism, and domestic terrorism,
such as the Ku Klux Klan or the
police.
The point here is not merely to
dispute the nomenclature of
“fifth-generation war”. Rather, by
considering disinformation and
perception management as tools
of war rather than “normal”
politics and diplomacy, states risk
exaggerating the severity of the
threats they face. Though all war
is politics, as Prussian military
theorist Carl von Clausewitz
famously observed, not all politics
is war.
Hard power vs soft
propaganda
Above all else, the key difference
between the hardware of real war
and tools of so-called
“fifth-generation”, “hybrid”, or
“grey-zone” wars is that the
former are weapons but the latter
must be weaponised – and that
too with the connivance and
cooperation of the target.
When India acquires jets, missiles,
or frigates, Pakistan has no choice
but to grimly prepare for their
use. Pakistan is obligated to deter
or neutralise such instruments
because they can kill human
beings regardless of their social or
political context. As such, it is best
to steel oneself.
By contrast, India’s employment of
tools such as misinformation is, in
and of itself, not dangerous.
Rather, it requires Pakistan’s
participation. Foreign actors the
world over poke and prod
opponents’ domestic
CSS Magazine Edition 5
vulnerabilities, but they find
fertile ground only in those
situations where the government
has created, deliberately or
unwittingly, a vacuum for armed
opposition and foreign
interference to step in.
In Pakistan’s case, it is an
indisputable fact that innocent
Baloch are arbitrarily imprisoned,
tortured, and murdered by
Pakistani security forces. This is
not an Indian invention.
Pakistani chief justices have
precipitated national crises on
Baloch missing persons. Pakistani
journalists have lost their lives
while reporting on Baloch missing
persons. Pakistani human rights
groups have invited labels of
treachery in highlighting Baloch
missing persons. And Pakistani
political parties have raised their
voice in favour of Baloch missing
persons. When propaganda is
based on real grievances, as with
the Soviet targeting of race
relations in the US, it resonates.
The real Indian threat
When it comes to security
threats, it is important to separate
the wheat from the chaff. Just
because the misinformation threat
is not “war” does not mean that
Islamabad does not have a bone to
pick with India.
India’s aggressive foreign policy
under Prime Minister Narendra
Modi’s Hindu nationalist
government has been
destabilising. Aside from its
assertive nationalism on display in
Kashmir, New Delhi’s support for
Baloch separatism and terrorism
has only served to escalate
tensions in South Asia, already the
world’s most geopolitically
dysfunctional region.
Given its narrow ambit, the EU
DisinfoLab report understandably
did not go so far as to discuss
Indian geopolitical behaviour
more generally. But in highlighting
just how tightly India’s news
media is so aligned to its
government, especially
concerning foreign relations, the
report is useful for Pakistan’s
diplomacy.
The symbiosis between the Indian
government and its media is not
new. Just eighteen months ago,
India and Pakistan found
themselves in the midst of a
dangerous crisis that risked
nuclear war. In those nervy and
tense times, the Indian media,
according to a Polis Project study,
“largely ascribed to itself the role
of an amplifier of government
propaganda”, regurgitating
baseless claims and pouring
jingoistic fuel on to a raging
nationalistic fire.
Simlarly, the EU DisinfoLab report
has proffered evidence that India’s
“private” mainstream media is in
many ways an arm of the Indian
state. In so doing, it has
strengthened Pakistan’s position
regarding the degradation of
India’s national political
institutions. India’s reputation as a
democracy, so crucial to its soft
power, has already taken a
battering under Modi. This report
does not help.
Of course, the West maintains
good relations with India not
because of its democratic status,
but rather because of its potential
to balance China and fuel
economic growth. It would be
unreasonable to expect this
report to fundamentally alter this
trajectory.
www.nearpeer.org
But at the very least, Islamabad
has been afforded ammunition for
a diplomatic argument it has
repeatedly voiced since Imran
Khan’s ascension to power: this is
not your grandfather’s India. It is
dangerous and demagogic. Wake
up before it’s too late.
The most certain outcome of
the report
Irrespective of its effects on
Indo-Pakistani dynamics, EU
DisinfoLab should be commended
for meticulously uncovering a
network of disinformation this
extensive. Unfortunately, the most
certain consequence of the
publication of this report will be
harmful.
This is not the authors’ fault; they
are quite careful in offering
caveats that exhort
decision-makers to hear what
Baloch and Pashtun organisations
have to say, even if such voices are
amplified by New Delhi. The
report explicitly states that “our
investigation is in no way a
judgement about the situation of
human rights in Pakistan, nor
should it serve to undermine the
credibility of minority movements
in Pakistan.”
Regrettably, that is exactly how
this report will be used in
Pakistani discourse. Pakistan’s
current “hybrid regime” –
full-blown military rule cloaked in
the thinnest of civilian façades –
has severely constrained space for
journalists, political parties,
dissidents, Baloch nationalists,
Pashtun rights leaders, and
others. Invoking national security
and nefarious designs from
abroad is the oldest trick in the
establishment’s book when it
comes to crushing dissent and
sidelining opposition.
CSS Magazine Edition 5
The EU DisinfoLab has given
Pakistan’s national security
establishment an ace in the hole.
It is a card it will relish playing
against both India and domestic
challengers.
Published in The Al Jazeera
Afghan
dialogue
AS the Afghan Taliban and the
government in Kabul try and
reach a modus vivendi in Doha, it
is essential that the level of
violence is brought down to allow
the peace process to succeed.
This point was stressed by
Pakistan’s civil and military
leadership on Tuesday when
prominent Afghan Hazara leader
Ustad Karim Khalili called on both
the prime minister and army chief
during his visit to Islamabad. The
comments are particularly
important considering the history
of bad blood between
Afghanistan’s Hazara community
and the Taliban. The latter were
responsible for the 1998 massacre
of hundreds, possibly thousands,
of mostly Hazara victims in
Mazar-i-Sharif; it is unlikely that
memories of that atrocity have
faded. However, if Afghanistan is
to prosper, it must look forward
while acknowledging its painful
past. That is why the talks in Doha
are so crucial. Afghan factions can
talk to foreign forces all they
want, but the fact remains that
peace in that country is unlikely
unless the Afghans talk to each
other in a spirit of reconciliation
and accommodation — all the
more reason why violence from all
sides, particularly the Taliban,
needs to stop if the talks are to
succeed.
Ever since the 1979 Soviet invasion
of Afghanistan — and even before
that — the country has been in a
constant state of conflict. The
communist, Mujahideen and
Taliban eras were all marked by
conflict and upheaval, retarding
Afghanistan’s growth and forcing
millions of Afghans to flee their
homeland. Now, at a time when
foreign forces are poised to leave,
Afghan stakeholders have two
choices before them: they can
take advantage of the situation
and work out a plan to share
power and help establish a
democratic system in which the
interests of all ethnicities and
sects, as well as women and
minorities, are protected, or they
can continue to battle it out and
prolong the endless nightmare of
the Afghan people. As for the
Kabul elite, they need to put on a
united front and discard internal
factional divisions for the sake of
harmony. For their part, the
Taliban must join the political
process. If their violent actions
continue, it is highly unlikely that
an intra-Afghan peace process
can succeed. And with virulent
militant actors such as the
self-styled Islamic State group
waiting in the wings to pounce, all
Afghan forces must realise the
importance of a negotiated
settlement as soon as possible.
Published in Dawn
www.nearpeer.org
Is the economy
recovering?
GOING by what we are hearing
these days, it seems the country’s
economy is in the middle of a
rebound, or at least according to
the words of government
ministers. Planning Minister Asad
Umar has been talking about a
‘V-shaped recovery’ since at least
August, when the Covid-19
lockdowns were largely gone.
Prime Minister Imran Khan has
been talking about a ‘recovery’ in
the economy since at least
November. And the commerce
adviser, Razzak Dawood, makes it
a point to share export data and
congratulate the country on their
rising trend every month.
So is it true that the economy is
indeed recovering? Consider first
that all projections for where the
economy will stand by the end of
this fiscal year range between 0.5
per cent GDP growth and 2.5pc.
The IMF said 1.1pc most recently
and the World Bank said 0.5pc
only a week ago. The State Bank
estimated GDP growth to fall
between 1.5pc and 2.5pc, citing
the second wave of Covid-19 as a
key risk. The International
Institute of Finance projected
1.8pc back in August and only
today Moody’s forecast GDP
growth to come in at 1.5pc by the
end of this fiscal year.
You can spin these numbers if you
like. A determined soul could
argue that since growth was
negative last year, even positive
2pc growth this year is an
impressive recovery. Or the same
determined soul might argue that
this trend is likely to accelerate
given what is happening in the
CSS Magazine Edition 5
large-scale manufacturing
indicator, which shows
accelerating output growth
among large manufactures every
month.
What you cannot do, however, is
refer to 2pc GDP growth as some
sort of ‘recovery’, unless by
recovery you mean only that the
economy has recovered from the
jolt of the Covid-19 lockdowns,
which didn’t last very long in
Pakistan. Even if we double this
projection, and argue that by the
end of the fiscal year the growing
activity we see in industry today
will accelerate to the point where
it will blow past all projections
made by everybody and come in
at 4pc (double what the more
optimistic projections are
showing), even then you don’t
have a very sharp ‘recovery’, only a
slow grinding return of economic
activity after at least two years of
moribund performance.
There is rampant under-invoicing
of exports going on. The PM is
being taken for a ride.
Whenever you hear the
government proclaim triumph
about rising exports, keep in mind
that the trade deficit has grown
even faster than exports in the
same July to December period.
The month of December saw a
sharp rise in the trade deficit, up
by almost a third from the same
month last year, and if the past is
any guide, then whenever we have
rising periods of growth we also
see a rising trade deficit which
eventually swamps growth
because the foreign exchange
reserves deplete. It is too early to
say that the December trade
figures show a return of this trend
though, but if the trade deficit
continues rising in the months of
January and February, we will be
in a position to ask whether yet
one more unsustainable growth
spurt has been engineered in the
country.
Even more importantly, though,
whenever we look at the rise in
exports we have to ask at what
cost these have been brought
about. For example, add up all the
freebies and handouts the
government has given to
exporters all through 2020, at an
accelerating clip, and then add up
all the incremental export
proceeds that these chaps have
brought back into the country.
Between subsidies on fuel, power
and credit, the bonanza from a
sharp fall in interest rates — that
fell to just over half their level in a
matter of weeks once the
lockdowns began and have
remained there ever since — the
massive rescheduling of their
loans that the State Bank arranged
for them, and sharp breaks on
taxes and custom duties, you have
a figure of almost Rs2 trillion that
have been poured into industry as
a whole. It is hard to determine
how much of this went to
exporters specifically, but they are
the beneficiaries of a very large
share of government largesse.
In return, exports have increased
by $574 million in the first six
months of the fiscal year
compared to the same period last
year, equal to around Rs92 billion
at an exchange rate of 160. It is
difficult to calculate how much
largesse the exporters have
actually absorbed through all the
various ways the government has
showered it upon them, but it is a
safe bet that it is far larger than
Rs92bn.
www.nearpeer.org
So what’s going on? I’ve said
before that there is rampant
under-invoicing of exports going
on, and I repeat that once again.
These guys are basically taking
the prime minister for a ride. It is
also possible that many among
them are then routing some of
this money accumulated abroad
via under-invoicing back into the
country in the form of
remittances, which might help
explain why the latter remain
elevated above the $2bn level for
many months now.
Why would they do this? Because
there are enormous benefits for
them to bring that money back
and pour it into real estate
investments instead, since that
sector is on the cusp of a boom
brought about by nearly Rs186bn
of black money entering via an
amnesty scheme, coupled with an
equally massive set of government
handouts.
So no, the economy is not turning
around or recovering. It is in the
early stages of what might
become a growth spasm driven by
massive state inducements of the
sort we have seen before and
which inevitably lead to a crash.
And the drivers of that growth are
narrowly huddled in property
development and allied industries,
and textile exports, with some
knock-on effects rippling through
the system. Investment without
savings or expenditures without
revenues are like a drug for any
economy. Let’s see what happens
to this gravy train once the IMF
programme resumes.
Published in Dawn
CSS Magazine Edition 5
Growth
projections
The central bank expects real
growth, one that takes
inflation into account, to fall
somewhere between 1.5 and
2.5%
The government’s GDP growth
target for the ongoing fiscal year
is 2.1%. While the World Bank sees
a subdued recovery keeping the
growth rate contained at 0.5% in
FY20-21, the growth projection
made by the State Bank of
Pakistan in its report on the first
quarters of the current fiscal year
is quite generous. The central
bank expects the real growth —
one that takes into account
inflation in its estimation — to fall
somewhere between 1.5 and 2.5%.
As against the World Bank’s
forecast that takes into account
continued fiscal consolidation
pressures and service sector
weakness, the SBP’s estimate is
based on the current trends of
economic activity which have
mainly resulted from two factors:
one, the ease in Covid-induced
restrictions in the wake of the
containment of the first wave of
the pandemic; and two, the
suspension of the IMF loan
programme allowing for a
substantial cut in the central
bank’s policy rates, stimulus
packages for businesses making
available cheap working capital,
and the launch of an amnesty
scheme related to the
construction industry. And where
the reigning pandemic has
wreaked havoc with home
budgets by contributing to the
rise in poverty and
unemployment, it continues to
have a positive impact on a few
macroeconomic indicators. For
instance, the pandemic-related
travel restrictions have led to
increased inflows through
banking channels, causing the
foreign remittances to stand in
excess of two billion dollars for
seventh months in a row, thereby
allowing the current account to
post a surplus during these
months.
What, therefore, puts the central
bank’s optimism over growth in
doubt is the uncertainty about the
trajectory of the Covid-19
pandemic as well as an impending
resumption of the IMF loan
programme that would bring back
the fiscal tightening measures
meant to achieve economic
stabilisation.
Published in Tribune
Green
Emergency
The first step is devise a
policy that is conducive to
forest investment and
sustainable forest
management practices
While the New Year was
celebrated with much zeal and
fervour across Pakistan, K-P was
witnessing a tragedy. On January
1, a heavy wildfire engulfed the
forests of Mushkpuri, Birote
Khurd and nearby Dunga Gali,
reducing trees worth millions of
rupees to ashes. Even though
wildfires are rather common in
the region, the forest department
has consistently failed to prevent
such losses from occurring.
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It is hard to understand why the
authorities refrain from investing
in research, despite the country
having already started witnessing
the horrific effects of global
warming. Not only does this
isolated incident require serious
probe for determining the root
cause of such repeated
occurrence, the issue of
deforestation and wildlife needs
to be addressed at a broader level.
K-P alone has lost more than 1.2
million trees during 2018, with
losses amounting to Rs27.2
million, while the annual rate of
deforestation in Pakistan remains
the highest in the world —
between 0.2% and 0.5% per
annum. Every year the country
loses almost 27,000 hectares of
natural forest area, with
biodiversity and wildlife
significantly threatened. Many
have termed the situation a
‘Green Emergency’ — a crisis that
has adversely impacted the rural
population that relies on forests
for livelihood. Furthermore, with
the boom in population, raw
materials from forest ecosystems
become all the more scant,
making it harder to balance
supply with demand. Apart from
being an essential resource,
forests also need to be thought of
as the lungs of the country as they
play a vital role in sequestering
carbon from the atmosphere,
protecting upstream watersheds,
and conserving biodiversity.
While afforestation may seem to
be the obvious solution, the truth
is that this alone will not help. The
first step is to devise a policy that
is conducive to forest investment
and sustainable forest
management practices. Then, the
root causes need to be identified
and systematically targeted. At the
CSS Magazine Edition 5

national level, sustainable and UK parliament is due to meet on

eco-friendly measures need to be
sought.
Published in Tribune
Brexit Deal
The European Union and the
United Kingdom have reached an
eleventh-hour agreement on a
Brexit deal. The deal came just a
week before Brexit becomes
official on January 1. The deal put
to an end some of the stress that
people, especially in the UK, had
regarding the implications of a
no-deal Brexit on trade and travel.
While the finer details of the
agreement had not been made
public immediately, we know that
they will include exemptions on
tariffs and from any trade quotas.
The UK and EU will continue
cooperating on environmental and
climate change issues, along with
energy, transport, and security.
December 30 to vote on the deal,
the EU parliament is not likely to
meet before early January. Experts
are saying that the deal will still
come into effect on January 1,
even if both sides haven't
approved it by then. But less has
been said of what would happen if
the House of Commons rejects the
deal.
There is also concern over how
little time people and businesses
will have to adjust to the new
rules.
Regardless, Prime Minister Boris
Johnson and Britain's 'leave' voters
have their wish. Now Johnson
must make his promises of
post-Brexit prosperity come true.
That may be a problem, since his
own Office for Budget
Responsibility said the UK would
suffer further job losses, economic
decline, and reduced export
prospects after Brexit, even with a
deal.

Competition rules were not Published in Tribune

initially elaborated on, but
European Commission President
Ursula Von der Leyen did say that
they "will be fair and remain so”.
The British government says that
the deal will cover over £600
billion worth of trade with the EU,
which is also the country's biggest
trading partner. Potential border
delays caused by increased
checking of goods trucks have
also been averted. This could have
cost the economy billions and led
to problems in the delivery of
perishable products.

However, even though an

agreement has been reached, it
still requires ratification from the
EU and UK parliaments. While the

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 CSS Magazine edition 6

Mcqs Compilation
CSS Magazine Edition 6

1. Who recalled Muhammad Bin Qasim from 7. Which of the following was/were the
Sindh? drawback(s) of the Government of India Act of
1858?
A. Caliph Walid
B. Caliph Suleman A. Control of the Secretary of State for India and
C. Caliph Abdul Aziz his Council was bureaucratic in nature
D. None of these B. Expense of the Secretary of State for India
and his Council became a burden on Indian
revenues
2. When did Muhammad Bin Qasim conquered C. Both of these
Sindh? D. None of these

A. 612 AD
B. 712 AD 8. When was the Government of India Act 1858
C. 812 AD passed?
D. 912 AD
A. August 2
B. June 2
3. When did Muhammad Bin Qasim died? C. February 2
D. None of these
A. July 18, 715 AD
B. July 18, 815 AD
C. July 18, 915 AD
9. Who introduced the bill which was originally
D. None of these
titled as “An Act for the Better Government of
India” and it was passed on August 2, 1858?
4. First Session of the All-India Muslim League
was held on 29-30 December 1907. Where was
A. Queen Victoria
it held?
B. Cord Palmerson
A. Lahore C. Edward Henry Stanley
B. Aligarh D. None of these
C. Karachi
D. None of these
10. Faraizi Movement was primarily a religious
movement. What change Dudhu Mian brought in
5. The First Session of the All-India Muslim the movement?
League was presided over by
A. Transferred it into a guerrilla movement
A. Allama Iqbal B. Transferred it into a political movement
B. Quaid-e-Azam C. Transferred it into a cultural movement
C. Mohsin-ul-Mulk D. None of these
D. Sir Adamjee Pir Bhai

11. What was the real name of Dudhu Mian?

6. Who was appointed the first president of the
All-India Muslim League? A. Qutubuddin Ahmad
B. Muhsinuddin Ahmad
A. Allama Iqbal C. Aleemunddin Ahmad
B. Sir Agha Khan D. None of these
C. Mohsin-ul-Mulk
D. Muhammad Ali Johar

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CSS Magazine Edition 6

12. Who founded the Faraizi movement in 1819? 18. Mention the important announcement(s) that
was/were made by the Governor General Lord
A. Haji Shariatullah Hardinge in his Darbar at Delhi in 1911?
B. Dudhu Mian
C. Qutubuddin Ahmad A. Annulment of the partition of Bengal
D. None of these B. Central National Mohammadan Association
C. Both of these
13. Who for the first time translated the Holy D. None of these
Quran in Urdu language?
19. Who announced the decision to effect first
A. Shah Waliullah and Shah Abdul Aziz partition of Bengal in July 1905?
B. Shah Abdul Qadir and Shah Rafiuddin
C. Syed Ahmad Baralvi and Shah Ismail Dehlavi
A. Lord Curzon
D. None of these
B. Lord Hardinge
C. Lord Carmichael
D. None of these
14. Who was the father of Shah Abdul Qadir?

A. Shah Waliullah
20. In which year after a successful war of
B. Syed Ahmad Baralvi
independence with west Pakistan, East Bengal
C. Shah Rafiuddin became Bangladesh?
D. Shah Abdul Aziz
A. 1957
B. 1960
15. What was the title of the translation of Holy
C. 1965
Quran in Urdu by Shah Abdul Qadir?
D. 1971

A. Mutalaeh Quran
B. Tafseerul Quran 21. Which organisation is considered the first
C. Mozah Al-Quran Muslim political body constituted to represent the
D. None of these Muslims of the subcontinent as a whole?

A. Anjuman-e-Mussalmanan-e-Hind
16. Who was formal teacher of Syed Ahmad
B. Central National Mohammadan Association
Barelvi?
C. Urdu Defence Association
D. None of these
A. Sheikh Ahmad Sirhindi
B. Shah Waliullah
C. Shah Abdul Aziz
22. Who founded the political organization,
D. None of these
Central National Muhammadan Association ?

17. What was the age of Shah Abdul Aziz when his A. Sir Syed Ahmad Khan
father Shah Waliullah died? B. Quaid-e-Azam
C. Syed Ameer Ali
A. 13 years D. None of these
B. 15 years
C. 17 years
D. 19 years

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CSS Magazine Edition 6

23. When and where the political organization,

Central National Muhammadan Association was 28. When did Sir Syed Ahmad Khan established the
founded? booklet Asbab-e-Baghawat-e-Hind, In which he
studied the causes of the Indian revolt?
A. 1877, Calcutta
B. 1877, Aligarh A. 1855
C. 1857, Calcutta B. 1857
D. 1857, Aligarh C. 1859
D. 1860
24. What was the designation of Sir Syed Ahmad
Khan in M.A.O. School at Aligarh?
29. Where did Sir Syed Ahmad Khan founded a
A. Secretary, Managing Committee modern madrassa in 1859, which was one of the
B. President, Managing Committee first religious school to impart scientific education
?
C. Patron, Managing Committee
D. None of these
A. Aligarh
B. Muradabad
25. When was the Muhammadan Anglo-Oriental C. Ghazipur
(M.A.O) college was founded by Sir Syed Ahmad D. Bijnaur
Khan ?

A. 1870 30. Where, during the War of Independence, was

Sir Syed Ahmad Khan working/posted?
B. 1872
C. 1875
A. Delhi
D. 1877
B. Bijnaur
C. Aligarh
26. What was the old given Urdu name of the D. None of these
M.A.O (Muhammadan Anglo-Oriental) college?

A. Madrasatul Uloom Musalmanan-e-Hind 31. When did Sir Ahmad Khan entered the service
B. Madrasah Nizamiyah of East India Company?
C. Madrasah Babul Uloom
D. None of these A. 1832
B. 1835
C. 1838
27. Sir Syed Ahmad Khan established a D. 1840
Translation Society (later, renamed as ‘Scientific
Society’) in 1864. In which town was it founded?
32. Which university awarded Sir Syed Ahmad
A. Bijnaur Khan an honorary LLD in 1889?
B. Aligarh
C. Ghazipur A. University of Edinburgh
D. None of these B. University of Aligarh
C. University of New York
D. None of these

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CSS Magazine Edition 6

ANSWERS
1. B 2. B 3. A

4. C 5. D 6. B

7. B 8. A 9. C

10. A 11. B 12. A

13. B 14. A 15. C

16. C 17. A 18. C

19. A 20. D 21. B

22. C 23. A 24. D

25. C 26. A 27. C

28. C 29. B 30. B

31. C 32. A

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