Special Cases of Continuous Random Variables: Exponenti Astron ag og ave Be lg talent = In probability theory and statistics, the exponent ‘exponential distribation) ie the probability dicributon that deseribes the time {vents in Poisson process, 2, a process in which events occur continuously and independently ata constant average rate. Is the continuous analogue of the geometric distribution, and it has the key property of being memoryless In addition to being used or the analysis of Poisson processes, it is found in various other context. ‘As we saw withthe Chi-square dstbution, the Exponential distribution is also special ‘ase of the gamma distbution, Any gamma distribution where = 1, in fact an ‘exponential distribution tis worth noting that many textbooks and people use the following notation variation: «Where you will ecall A was the given success rate ofthe Poisson process Yak D> Fe che IX is a random variable with this distribution, we say/write: : eo kip ao reel E-Gomc(E<1, Eonenial ak . ‘Meaning that X isan Exponential random variable, the additonal information needed to ‘complete the story" (parameter) for this distribution isthe inverse of the sucess rate, co ee piel te ennes Poy ea Me I oc Uh os ‘¢ ¥ ‘Probability Dstebaton Fat gta {== fow=, osxo SY cor perp P= per ibdUseful results Yo / See a Ii I-(I-e *) [77> 7 : : tite “4 -e - of HS = $(%%) ees sul=t=¢ ‘Varane ofan Esponeatal LV, vi=few > SPO" B fod a pp BOER i ao oe Bln ik, 1arye 'Example: Consider an experiment that consists of counting the number of a-priles given fina onesecond interval by one gam of aioatve material we Ka from pastenpecace hat, onthe average 90 sch cpr are given of inn ise, ht {a god soproximsiont the probability that no more tant cpaticles wil appear eet SHeaM (SHE oem a OE Mg BE Ya Te Sth, IE Bese, ee ee ee) kb newb ee puke POEs gs Pla) +Pore dnt Ms = = 0.07739 Probability you will have to (it )>econd unt the next c-particles given off. kt oy geo te tinted nat pordicwle ‘Seeonels | \ Yo Exp @ t = O.3B Porlel. ) a ne 8 Ca Hoy foo C 7 teins re c, - pans sie 2 ott‘fone waits more than 0.5 seconds with out a particle, what is the probability helse will ‘wait total of more thin 0.75 seconds? i Pere orsnwosy —, PCI Arrows] 708) + POO AMOS) — 5 a Fone) Hin 08) Kans é -a) 08) gs ey hens 0.173, ‘The eaponcstial distribution bas what is called the memoryless property. This states that nas ever= =P) nH . vas Urrtsbr’): Rimes) . : ie sett tb Dowat gather shel tay bebe pee aa ve win i past Yor em abome ght fash be hrm Me? Po) 28 oP Pq Example: Plane erashes occur at an average rate of 25 per y ‘rashes forthe first nine months ofthe year what is the proba any crashes this year? . 18 Yue oF > there has not been any ty that there wil not be Bes Mant Ir at sa anid) lh oe z-ep(Be 48) Wt Zhe ste comb in Plan \2>8) ret earns) > a) “ip Page eee Ore‘More Examples Ina effort to study the amount of time its customer service representatives spend on each sevice cll, the manager ofa large call-enterin Western Canada randomly selected 100 (n= 100) service calls ove the course of a month and recorded the duration ofeach call, in minutes, The raw dat and a corresponding histogram of the data is provided below. 0.00.10. 0.10.102030303030304040405050508080809090910 1010111213 131415151617 1718181921 2222222323242425 262727 28323232333334343536383939404041 4243444448 454747 4951525558 60616265 6868707273 7677 8283879090 99113 138293, splay of the data above thatthe duration of a service call to ‘this all center possessesa distribution that is skewed tote right. That isis more probable forthe length oa allo be shorter than longer. The mean ofthe sample was |. “computed to be 346 minute, or = 3.6. J gine mien hone ‘Xrenp (pase %a) ‘Using he exponential distribution to model the duration of each service call, one can ask the following: (0) Woatis te probly tt cal made oth cl enter wil beat Gon 3 Dae in dno? 7x48) + foe se ee 5 ol] (©) Whats the probeslity tha call made to this all enter wl be teen 3) and 45 minutes long?) 9" P(2ext4s) (6) Ten-perent of all als made to this servic center exceed how many minutes? Tors ot é othe olee 7 She mlb 25 WA: i Oboe pose 7 lapetentet (0.4Bale From he point where a woman deci he paso she cent dating ia poet "oa, the amounftne ste wl wat nse eee marge propos it Tanda able Thien be moet yan Exponent dro ih ean of (05 years, or u, {B= 0.5) What is the probability that she will wait vegan (B03) What he pobaty {@) between 4 months and 7 months toreceive a mariage proposal from her current love- iMeres astern > ACOs) PMNs 6 Ue ae pret ol me eatit paper Cvs? Fote0 (6) With probability 0.50, she will wait ¢(moR how long to receive a marriage proposal rom her current love-interest? 7 1 mariage proposal from her curent love. (0H she wat at lent 6 month te Interest whats the probity she wil wait total of 9 moths? oe aay POrG-4) ~ Plersy ptemet las, We bold8 en Example 2 5 ” let 92 toh een Jun Ym Pos (12% ohn) Astomobil av ta ol-both located athe ena ofa ridge a rat of & Vehicles permite betwen the ous of 2.00pm and 30pm. Asuning tht he number ‘fautomoblesaniving she al-both inthis Hour canbe modeled wit a Pison ‘iaibuton, 4a) whats th probability that six vehicles arsve at the tll-booth in any given minute? ) Stating at 2-00, whats the probability shat it wil take at most (Gsecond9)for the First Sehiclarringatthistl-toat? : LEX th erent ol P(X Io) semble ha just arrived, what isthe probability thatthe next automobile will dea trrve thin a seconds? i 4 aeons » hs ay