Quantity

Fossil Fuel Non

Coal MFO DO MB DO RB Black Liquor
Month
Ton/month ton/month ton/month ton/month TDS/month

Jan-13 150,992 107.5 476.4 1,036.8 352,582

Feb-13 147,099 135.0 230.9 224.8 368,652
Mar-13 167,744 36.9 145.0 408.8 379,367
Apr-13 169,326 149.7 17.8 306.9 375,899
May-13 168,522 42.6 192.5 344.6 372,909
Jun-13 173,908 49.6 328.7 83.8 384,166
Jul-13 185,898 36.5 180.8 150.7 415,086
Aug-13 173,552 50.4 167.3 770.2 399,864
Sep-13 174,156 39.0 448.5 279.7 392,520
Oct-13 173,191 57.7 93.5 322.3 377,922
Nov-13 188,697 94.5 206.2 299.7 406,949
Dec-13 191,312 87.7 339.0 244.6 399,231
2,064,397 887.2 2,826.7 4,472.9
201,911 Jan-14 201,421 115.5 187.2 187.1 446,230
170,694 Feb-14 169,864 101.3 211.9 516.7 389,401
225,633 Mar-14 224,779 147.6 335.5 371.7 420,474
221,494 Apr-14 220,860 229.9 228.6 175.6 398,652
223,119 May-14 222,544 57.2 374.4 143.7 363,415
227,473 Jun-14 227,042 71.9 100.3 258.2 317,410
228,664 Jul-14 228,174 39.7 127.8 322.9 437,934
228,028 Aug-14 227,189 50.7 663.0 126.0 452,744
227,409 Sep-14 226,587 259.4 302.3 259.9 399,593
223,908 Oct-14 223,031 185.8 476.8 214.3 418,274
166,184 Nov-14 165,615 125.7 58.4 385.7 408,185
119,107 Dec-14 118,448 194.6 176.3 287.7 419,412
2,455,552 1,579.3 3,242.4 3,249.6
215,787 Jan-15 214,901 256.9 486.9 142.6 408,298
191,314 Feb-15 190,470 213.9 394.0 236.3 400,404
208,851 Mar-15 207,645 290.4 619.0 296.0 428,864
192,325 Apr-15 191,419 157.8 421.6 326.3 412,113
204,522 May-15 203,783 159.6 366.2 212.6 392,973
195,630 Jun-15 194,481 185.8 261.6 701.7 326,032
200,261 Jul-15 199,337 273.5 248.3 402.8 415,838
176,348 Aug-15 175,681 313.8 222.7 130.5 409,876
178,513 Sep-15 177,536 412.2 354.1 210.1 390,928
194,756 Oct-15 193,528 393.7 628.4 205.4 412,003
194,374 Nov-15 193,506 268.8 381.6 217.7 400,892
195,836 Dec-15 195,089 206.2 301.8 238.7 412,321
2,337,376 3,132.5 4,686.1 3,320.8
Y2013 2,064,397 887 2,827 4,473 4,625,145
Y2014 2,455,552 1,579 3,242 3,250 4,871,722
Y2015 2,337,376 3,132 4,686 3,321 4,810,541
Quantity
Non Fossil Fuel Fossil Fuel
Bark Palmshell Saw Dust Fibre Tankos Coal MFO Diesel Oil
(CPO)
ton/month ton/month ton/month ton/month ton/month kcal/kg kcal/kg kcal/kg

109,809 1,905 1,516 - 923 4,766 10,323.0 10,884.0

127,870 1,846 1,373 - 1,301 4,639 10,323.0 10,832.0
141,481 1,358 885 - 235 4,836 10,323.0 10,926.0
140,915 1,058 2,245 - - 4,761 10,323.0 10,900.0
129,142 1,955 1,624 - 1,000 4,605 10,323.0 10,926.0
153,381 1,200 2,138 - 400 4,681 10,323.0 10,897.0
162,803 920 2,398 - 100 4,579 10,323.0 10,988.0
171,977 1,085 939 - - 4,421 10,323.0 10,911.0
162,882 1,024 1,324 - - 4,687 10,323.0 10,885.0
163,239 2,000 1,821 - 200 4,618 10,323.0 10,898.0
127,395 1,640 1,467 - 100 4,681 10,323.0 10,998.0
143,666 598 1,528 - 10 4,647 10,323.0 10,952.0
4,660 10,323.0 10,916.4
158,130 500 1,683 - - 4,689 10,323.0 10,853.0
183,121 600 1,637 - 50 4,718 10,323.0 10,731.0
205,843 600 1,513 - - 4,700 10,323.0 10,799.0
155,151 500 2,225 - 50 4,702 10,323.0 10,767.0
153,419 350 2,299 - 50 4,604 10,323.0 10,880.0
153,435 200 2,369 - 50 4,810 10,323.0 10,903.0
177,058 200 2,688 - 13 4,804 10,323.0 10,809.0
195,875 600 2,802 - - 4,831 10,323.0 10,870.0
137,235 1,893 2,570 - - 4,566 10,323.0 10,801.0
116,255 1,190 2,129 - - 4,733 10,323.0 10,843.0
93,255 1,120 2,497 - - 4,640 10,323.0 10,809.0
96,644 71 2,380 - 2,400 4,677 10,323.0 10,846.0

108,512 900 2,106 - 625 4,749 10,323.0 10,935.0

112,293 400 1,979 - 1,721 4,667 10,323.0 10,873.0
118,550 800 1,883 - 4,184 4,842 10,204.0 10,948.0
110,972 763 1,785 300 5,248 4,772 10,204.0 10,931.0
110,285 1,641 1,794 405 4,719 4,739 10,204.0 10,906.0
100,999 1,096 1,102 360 5,368 4,808 10,926.0 10,302.0
148,379 641 816 100 1,627 4,772 10,964.0 10,302.0
162,661 469 1,117 1,700 1,585 4,755 10,435.0 10,949.0
148,428 1,416 1,210 9,327 1,286 4,813 10,475.0 10,993.0
 143,766 2,459 1,406 15,750 1,709 4,913 10,393.0 10,975.0
128,990 436 1,473 3,373 272 4,799 10,401.0 10,952.0
120,460 703 1,192 2,590 425 4,725 10,401.0 11,010.0
4,780
1,734,559 16,589 19,258 - 4,269 55,921 123,876 130,997
1,825,421 7,824 26,793 - 2,613 56,474 123,876 129,911
1,514,293 11,722 17,863 33,904 28,770 57,354 125,253 130,076
 Calori
el Non Fossil Fuel Fossil Fu
Natural Gas Black Liquor Bark Palmshell Saw Dust Fibre Tankos Coal
(CPO)
kcal/kg kcal/kg kcal/kg kcal/kg kcal/kg ton/month kcal/kg GJ/month

- 3,123 2,416 3,859 2,894 - 2,136 3,012,856

- 3,123 2,346 3,925 2,894 - 2,136 2,856,969
- 3,123 1,684 3,824 2,894 - 2,136 3,396,295
- 3,123 1,684 3,809 2,894 - 2,136 3,375,155
- 3,123 2,389 3,787 2,894 - 2,136 3,249,054
- 3,123 2,389 3,933 2,894 - 2,136 3,408,246
- 3,123 2,389 3,906 2,894 - 2,136 3,563,835
- 3,123 2,389 3,773 2,894 - 2,136 3,212,339
- 3,123 2,389 3,939 2,894 - 2,136 3,417,474
- 3,123 2,389 3,838 2,894 - 2,136 3,348,509
- 3,123 2,389 3,865 2,894 - 2,136 3,698,074
- 3,123 2,389 3,851 2,894 - 2,136 3,722,089
2,270 3,859 2,894 2,136 40,260,895
- 3,049 2,389 3,824 2,894 - 2,136 3,954,184
- 3,039 2,389 3,869 2,894 - 2,136 3,355,297
- 3,113 2,389 3,994 2,894 - 2,136 4,423,078
- 3,197 2,389 3,875 2,894 - 2,136 4,347,813
- 3,164 2,688 3,929 2,894 - 2,136 4,289,660
- 3,198 2,487 4,082 2,894 - 2,136 4,572,184
- 3,307 2,487 4,000 2,894 - 2,136 4,589,240
- 3,054 2,487 4,048 2,894 - 2,136 4,595,103
- 3,124 2,487 3,821 2,894 - 2,136 4,331,543
- 3,075 2,704 3,783 2,894 - 2,136 4,419,505
- 3,063 2,704 3,933 2,894 - 1,516 3,217,276
- 3,095 2,704 3,967 2,894 - 2,144 2,319,353
48,414,236
- 3,051 1,865 4,015 2,894 - 1,929 4,272,798
- 3,053 2,422 4,198 2,894 - 2,140 3,721,648
- 3,036 2,422 4,093 2,894 - 1,942 4,209,381
- 3,137 2,422 4,028 2,894 2,644 1,914 3,824,354
- 3,120 2,422 4,070 2,894 2,644 1,930 4,043,216
- 3,110 2,422 3,949 2,894 2,644 1,822 3,914,842
- 3,033 2,422 3,822 2,894 3,475 1,934 3,982,537
- 3,069 2,730 4,140 2,894 3,753 1,986 3,497,413
- 3,125 2,360 3,741 2,894 3,363 2,097 3,577,458
- 3,017 2,422 4,215 2,894 3,054 2,097 3,980,728
- 3,051 2,422 3,824 2,894 3,272 2,097 -
- 3,026 2,184 3,926 2,894 3,272 2,097 -
2,343 39,024,377
- 37,478 27,240 46,309 34,728 - 25,632 40,260,895
- 37,478 30,302 47,126 34,728 - 25,020 48,414,236
- 36,828 28,515 48,020 34,728 28,119 23,984 39,024,377
 Energy Content
Fossil Fuel Non Fossil Fuel
MFO DO MB DO RB Black Liquor Bark Palmshell Saw Dust

GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month

4,647 21,706 47,244 4,610,330 1,110,789 30,776 18,363

5,836 10,472 10,197 4,820,454 1,255,682 30,327 16,637
1,595 6,634 18,701 4,960,562 997,608 21,745 10,722
6,471 813 14,007 4,915,215 993,619 16,873 27,206
1,843 8,807 15,762 4,876,120 1,291,558 30,996 19,674
2,145 14,997 3,822 5,023,315 1,533,968 19,760 25,907
1,578 8,317 6,931 5,427,625 1,628,203 15,046 29,060
2,177 7,642 35,185 5,228,589 1,719,950 17,141 11,377
1,686 20,440 12,748 5,132,552 1,628,991 16,887 16,045
2,493 4,266 14,706 4,941,675 1,632,559 32,135 22,066
4,084 9,496 13,798 5,321,226 1,274,079 26,539 17,772
3,792 15,544 11,214 5,220,303 1,436,807 9,642 18,508
38,346 129,133 204,316 60,477,968 16,503,811 267,866 233,336
4,994 8,506 8,502 5,696,570 1,581,469 8,006 20,398
4,378 9,518 23,216 4,954,674 1,831,398 9,720 19,832
6,380 15,170 16,805 5,479,593 2,058,649 10,034 18,335
9,937 10,306 7,915 5,335,161 1,551,676 8,111 26,961
2,471 17,053 6,544 4,814,433 1,726,317 5,758 27,853
3,107 4,580 11,787 4,249,940 1,597,753 3,418 28,699
1,714 5,784 14,613 6,063,662 1,843,739 3,349 32,569
2,193 30,170 5,736 5,788,766 2,039,688 10,169 33,952
11,211 13,668 11,754 5,226,928 1,429,061 30,284 31,138
8,029 21,643 9,730 5,384,560 1,315,928 18,847 25,798
5,433 2,641 17,456 5,234,893 1,055,582 18,440 30,256
8,409 8,007 13,062 5,434,799 1,093,944 1,171 28,836
68,254 147,046 147,121 63,663,979 19,125,203 127,306 324,627
11,101 22,292 6,527 5,214,800 847,319 15,129 25,522
9,244 17,934 10,757 5,117,216 1,138,681 7,031 23,976
12,406 28,372 13,569 5,451,475 1,202,131 13,710 22,816
6,743 19,292 14,935 5,413,162 1,125,285 12,868 21,628
6,817 16,719 9,706 5,132,667 1,118,322 27,956 21,742
8,500 11,281 30,265 4,244,911 1,024,161 18,111 13,358
12,553 10,708 17,375 5,280,763 1,504,602 10,248 9,889
13,708 10,210 5,981 5,267,317 1,859,169 8,126 13,532
18,078 16,299 9,672 5,114,472 1,466,558 22,178 14,656
 17,130 28,876 9,438 5,204,337 1,457,825 43,380 17,034
- - 9,982 5,120,843 1,307,998 6,980 17,845
- - 11,004 5,223,242 1,101,452 11,547 14,439
116,280 181,983 149,211 61,785,205 15,153,505 197,264 216,437
38,346 129,133 204,316 60,477,968 16,503,811 267,866 233,336
68,254 147,046 147,121 63,663,979 19,125,203 127,306 324,627
116,280 181,983 149,211 61,785,205 15,153,505 197,264 216,437
Energy Content
Total Energy Fossil Fuel Total Energy Non Fossil Fuel Total Energy
Fibre Tankos

ton/month GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month

8,254 3,086,453 5,778,512 8,864,965

11,631 2,883,473 6,134,731 9,018,204
2,102 3,423,224 5,992,739 9,415,962
- 3,396,446 5,952,913 9,349,359
8,943 3,275,466 6,227,291 9,502,757
3,577 3,429,211 6,606,527 10,035,738
894 3,580,661 7,100,828 10,681,489
- 3,257,343 6,977,057 10,234,400
- 3,452,349 6,794,475 10,246,823
1,789 3,369,974 6,630,223 10,000,197
894 3,725,452 6,640,510 10,365,961
89 3,752,638 6,685,349 10,437,987
38,173
- 3,976,185 7,306,443 11,282,628
447 3,392,408 6,816,071 10,208,480
- 4,461,434 7,566,611 12,028,044
447 4,375,971 6,922,356 11,298,327
447 4,315,729 6,574,807 10,890,536
447 4,591,658 5,880,257 10,471,915
113 4,611,351 7,943,431 12,554,782
- 4,633,202 7,872,575 12,505,777
- 4,368,176 6,717,412 11,085,588
- 4,458,906 6,745,132 11,204,038
- 3,242,805 6,339,171 9,581,977
21,548 2,348,831 6,580,298 8,929,128
23,449 132,017,771 83,264,564 215,282,335
- 5,048 4,312,719 6,107,818 10,420,537
- 15,418 3,759,582 6,302,321 10,061,903
- 34,021 4,263,729 6,724,154 10,987,883
3,320 42,059 3,865,325 6,618,323 10,483,647
4,486 38,138 4,076,459 6,343,310 10,419,769
3,985 40,940 3,964,889 5,345,466 9,310,355
1,455 13,178 4,023,172 6,820,135 10,843,307
26,713 13,180 3,527,312 7,188,037 10,715,348
131,307 11,287 3,621,506 6,760,459 10,381,965
201,383 15,003 4,036,172 6,938,963 10,975,135
46,197 2,388 9,982 6,502,251 6,512,233
35,478 3,731 11,004 6,389,888 6,400,893
454,322 234,393 117,512,977 78,041,126 195,554,103
- 38,173 40,632,690 77,521,155 118,153,844
- 23,449 48,776,657 83,264,564 132,041,221
454,322 234,393 39,471,851 78,041,126 117,512,977
Energy Fossil Energy Non Fossil

% %

34.8 65.2
32.0 68.0
36.4 63.6
36.3 63.7
34.5 65.5
34.2 65.8
33.5 66.5
31.8 68.2
33.7 66.3
33.7 66.3
35.9 64.1
36.0 64.0

35.2 64.8
33.2 66.8
37.1 62.9
38.7 61.3
39.6 60.4
43.8 56.2
36.7 63.3
37.0 63.0
39.4 60.6
39.8 60.2
33.8 66.2
26.3 73.7
61.3 38.7
41.4 58.6
37.4 62.6
38.8 61.2
36.9 63.1
39.1 60.9
42.6 57.4
37.1 62.9
32.9 67.1
34.9 65.1
36.8 63.2
0.2 99.8
0.2 99.8
60.1 39.9
413 787
441 759
378 822
 Axis X Axis Y
Independent Variable Dependent Variable

No Production (Ton) Energy (GJ)

Jan-13 334053 8,864,965.23
Feb-13 296486 9,018,204.05
Mar-13 331399 9,415,962.49
Apr-13 327832 9,349,358.56
Mei-13 308396 9,502,757.40
Juni-13 297965 10,035,738.31
Juli-13 343388 10,681,488.84
Agu-13 347366 10,234,399.58
Sep-13 349100 10,246,823.49
Okt-13 363725 10,000,197.33
Nov-13 360055 10,365,961.39
Des-13 364693 10,437,987.45

Energy Drivers
X1 X2 X3
Pulp Paper Tissue

Jan-13 230327 84052 19674

Feb-13 198040 81005 17441
Mar-13 227123 85178 19098
Apr-13 228151 80692 18989
Mei-13 202565 86273 19558
Juni-13 195364 83575 19026
Juli-13 238823 83243 21322
Agu-13 239683 85685 21998
Sep-13 239683 88760 20657
Okt-13 250116 91999 21610
Nov-13 246922 92319 20814
Des-13 255790 90344 18559
JUMLAH
SELISIH
AVERAGE

Perbandingan Actual & Prediciton Energy

12,000,000.00

10,000,000.00

8,000,000.00
 Perbandingan Actual & Prediciton Energy

12,000,000.00

10,000,000.00

8,000,000.00

6,000,000.00

4,000,000.00

2,000,000.00

0.00
1 2 3
Actual 4
Energy 5 6 7 Energy
Prediction 8 9 10 11 12
 Persamaan Linear
12,000,000.00

10,000,000.00
f(x) = 14.4950470804621 x + 4984927.99397689
R² = 0.345000580602869
8,000,000.00
Energy (G/J)

6,000,000.00

4,000,000.00

2,000,000.00

0.00
290000 300000 310000 320000 330000 340000 350000 360000 370000
Production (Ton)

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Actual Energy Prediction

Energy
Regression Statistics
8,864,965.23 9,738,297.59 Multiple R 0.6660922749
9,018,204.05 9,109,529.75 R Square 0.4436789187
9,415,962.49 9,674,525.51 Adjusted R Squ 0.2350585132
9,349,358.56 9,491,727.57 Standard Error 519920.77793
9,502,757.40 9,665,775.73 Observations 12
10,035,738.31 9,443,351.27
10,681,488.84 10,009,253.73 ANOVA
10,234,399.58 10,212,876.93 df SS
10,246,823.49 10,118,976.21 Regression 3 1.724676E+12
10,000,197.33 10,444,393.32 Residual 8 2.162541E+12
10,365,961.39 10,315,374.01 Total 11 3.887217E+12
10,437,987.45 9,929,762.50
118,153,844.11118,153,844.11 Coefficients Standard Error
0.00 Intercept 2291287.1326 3634424.4145
9,846,153.68 9,846,153.68 X Variable 1 5.0007152474 11.090950369
X Variable 2 38.071854711 52.897364157
X Variable 3 157.32414299 139.61534323

Y= 2291287.13256942 + 5.00071524744459 X1 + 38.07185471089

gy
LINEST
157.32414299 38.071854711 5.0007152474
gy

139.61534323 52.897364157 11.090950369

0.4436789187 519920.77793 #N/A
2.1267282922 8 #N/A
1.724676E+12 2.162541E+12 #N/A

Y = 2291287.133 + 5.000715247 X1 + 38.07185471 X2 + 157.32414

10 11 12 PART B : VERIFY THE VALIDITY OR REGRESSION

Regression Checks
R2>0.75? 0.4436789187
Cvrmse<0.2? 0.0528044549
Mean bias error <0.005%? 1.135049E-15
Independent variable sensitivit 1.1268399256
Intercept tstat>2? 0.6304401664
00 360000 370000

MS F Significance F
5.75E+11 2.1267282922 0.175049
2.7E+11

t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
0.63044 0.5459895806 -6089711 10672285 -6089711 10672285
0.450882 0.6640442963 -20.57506 30.57649 -20.57506 30.57649
0.719731 0.4921789201 -83.90969 160.0534 -83.90969 160.0534
1.12684 0.2924726467 -164.6294 479.2777 -164.6294 479.2777

24744459 X1 + 38.0718547108939 X2 + 157.324142985524 X3

2291287
 3634424
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

+ 38.07185471 X2 + 157.324143 X3

REGRESSION

NO 0.719730658 NO 0.450882 NO
YES
YES
NO
NO
 Axis X Axis Y
Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Total Production (Ton) Energy (G/J)

Jan-13 619347.08 8864965.22828526
Feb-13 648730.84 9018204.04858915 12000000
Mar-13 691660.07 9415962.48624661 10000000 f(x
Apr-13 689917.441 9349358.55969066 8000000
R²
May-13 675731.08 9502757.39728803

Energy
6000000
Jun-13 715655.06 10035738.3119915 4000000
Jul-13 767573.68 10681488.8411937
2000000
Aug-13 748404.88 10234399.5756132
0
Sep-13 732673.29 10246823.49471 500000 550000
Oct-13 555607.95 8367638.76965661
Nov-13 726847.556 10365961.3912016
Dec-13 737015.07 10437987.4488935

Energy Drivers
X1 X2 X3 X4
Coal MFO DO MB DO RB
Jan-13 150991.5 107.51 476.35 1036.79
Feb-13 147098.84 135.03 230.91 224.84
Mar-13 167744.09 36.9 145.02 408.81
Apr-13 169326 149.723 17.82 306.938
May-13 168521.57 42.64 192.52 344.58
Jun-13 173908.36 49.64 328.73 83.78
Jul-13 185898.18 36.51 180.78 150.66
Aug-13 173551.75 50.37 167.29 770.23
Sep-13 174156 39.01 448.52 279.74
Oct-13 173191.15 57.68 93.49 322.32
Nov-13 188697.07 94.49 206.23 299.656
Dec-13 191311.99 87.73 339 244.57
JUMLAH
SELISIH
AVERAGE
 2013
12000000
10000000 f(x) = 11.5637487714765 x + 1703016.71592117
R² = 0.926315139341291
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
500000 550000 600000 650000 700000 750000 800000
Total Production

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Actual Energy Prediction Energy Regression Statistics

8,864,965 9,126,213 Multiple R
9,018,204 8,717,104 R Square
9,415,962 9,399,532 Adjusted R Square
9,349,359 9,228,160 Standard Error
9,502,757 9,518,422 Observations
10,035,738 10,003,443
10,681,489 10,229,163 ANOVA
10,234,400 9,590,454
10,246,823 10,175,536 Regression
8,367,639 9,539,772 Residual
10,365,961 10,329,357 Total
10,437,987 10,664,129
116,521,286 116521285.55336
0 Intercept
9,710,107 9,710,107 X Variable 1
X Variable 2
X Variable 3
X Variable 4

Y = 2599594.25241101+ 39.68639479

-195.317777208092
722.534471435934
0.618030957582198
2.83152312271901
 3601507552604.8

Y = 2599594.25241101+ 39.6

PART B : VERIFY THE VALIDITY OR RE

Regression Checks
R2>0.75?
Cvrmse<0.2?
Mean bias error <0.005%?
Independent variable sensitivity > 2
Intercept tstat>2?

Perbandingan Actual & Prediciton Energy

12,000,000

10,000,000

8,000,000

6,000,000

4,000,000

2,000,000
10,000,000

8,000,000

6,000,000

4,000,000

2,000,000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Actual Predictive
egression Statistics
0.7861494499
0.61803095758
0.39976293334
563900.023924
12

df SS MS F Significance F
4 3.602E+12 900376888151.202 2.831523 0.108946
7 2.226E+12 317983236981.869
11 5.827E+12

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%

2599594.25241 2935577
39.6863947992 15.293976
-404.84203971 4680.6908
1638.16265164 1299.0341
-195.31777721 722.53447
0.885548009631162 0.405253 -4341942 9541131
2.5949036300301 0.035689 3.521887 75.8509
-0.086491942404742 0.933497 -11472.92 10663.23
1.26106210117587 0.247688 -1433.565 4709.89
-0.270323126341539 0.794708 -1903.84 1513.205

94.25241101+ 39.6863947991945 X1 -404.84203971243 X2 + 1638.16265164385 X3 -195.317777208093 X4

LINEST
1638.16265164 -404.842 39.6863947991944 2599594
1299.03408414 4680.6908 15.2939763696481 2935577
563900.023924 #N/A #N/A #N/A
7 #N/A #N/A #N/A
 2225882658873 #N/A #N/A #N/A

= 2599594.25241101+ 39.6863947991945 X1 -404.84203971243 X2 + 1638.16265164385 X3 -195.317777208093 X4

ERIFY THE VALIDITY OR REGRESSION

0.618031 NO
0.0580735 YES
error <0.005%? 0.0833333 NO
nt variable sensitivity > 2 -0.270323 NO 1.261062 NO -0.086492
0.885548 NO

nergy
0 11 12
 Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
-4341942 9541131
3.521887 75.8509
-11472.92 10663.23
-1433.565 4709.89
-1903.84 1513.205

7777208093 X4
-195.317777208093 X4

NO 2.594904 NO
 Axis X Axis Y
Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Total Production (Ton) Energy (G/J)

Jan-14 201910.87 3976185.21720503
Feb-14 170693.81 3392408.47765486 5000000
Mar-14 4500000
225633.42 4461433.5023835 4000000 f(x) = 2
Apr-14 R² = 0.
221493.78 4375970.94164785 3500000
3000000
May-14 223119.14 4315728.60632484

Energy
2500000
Jun-14 227472.737 4591658.08917992 2000000
1500000
Jul-14 228664.27 4611351.18275544 1000000
Aug-14 228028.24 4633202.35317767 500000
0
Sep-14 227408.517 4368176.23919952 100000 120000
Oct-14 223907.854 4458905.79227309
Nov-14 166184.34 3242805.4785726
Dec-14 119106.53 2348830.62946525

Energy Drivers
X1 X2 X3 X4
Coal MFO DO MB DO RB
Jan-14 201421.03 115.54 187.19 187.11
Feb-14 169863.92 101.29 211.86 516.74
Mar-14 224778.57 147.62 335.53 371.7
Apr-14 220859.65 229.92 228.63 175.58
May-14 222543.93 57.18 374.36 143.67
Jun-14 227042.29 71.88 100.34 258.227
Jul-14 228173.89 39.65 127.81 322.92
Aug-14 227188.51 50.74 662.95 126.04
Sep-14 226586.93 259.4 302.26 259.927
Oct-14 223031.01 185.77 476.75 214.324
Nov-14 165614.55 125.7 58.35 385.74
Dec-14 118448 194.56 176.32 287.65
JUMLAH
SELISIH
AVERAGE
 2013
5000000
4500000
4000000 f(x) = 20.1179693911016 x − 65537.1512752411
3500000 R² = 0.989250062906935
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 220000 240000
Total Production

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Actual Energy Prediction Energy Regression Statistics

3,976,185 3,996,166 Multiple R
3,392,408 3,401,980 R Square
4,461,434 4,469,125 Adjusted R Square
4,375,971 4,325,673 Standard Error
4,315,729 4,459,519 Observations
4,591,658 4,524,350
4,611,351 4,570,402 ANOVA
4,633,202 4,579,817
4,368,176 4,436,474 Regression
4,458,906 4,416,629 Residual
3,242,805 3,282,213 Total
2,348,831 2,314,309
48,776,657 48776656.5098397
0 Intercept
4,064,721 4,064,721 X Variable 1
X Variable 2
X Variable 3
X Variable 4

Y = 28619.6839170379 +19.8476956

68.3992828735367
249.969756408214
0.992422597660041
229.199858736081
 5502025406786.4

Y=28619.6839170379+19.8476

PART B : VERIFY THE VALIDITY OR RE

Regression Checks
R2>0.75?
Cvrmse<0.2?
Mean bias error <0.005%?
Independent variable sensitivity > 2
Intercept tstat>2?

Perbandingan Actual & Prediciton Energy

5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Actual Predictive
egression Statistics
0.99620409438
0.99242259766
0.98809265347
77468.3181166
12

df SS MS F Significance F
4 55020254067861375506351697 229.1999 1.694E-07
7 42009382182.75 6001340311.82
11 5544034788969

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

28619.683917 208498.1075052 0.13726591699 0.894685 -464400 521639.4 -464400
19.8476956019 0.78078157859 25.4202918539 3.724E-08 18.00144 21.69395 18.00144
-517.99476667 327.2785341869 -1.582733704 0.157498 -1291.886 255.896 -1291.886
90.0387451235 161.7528315161 0.55664401222 0.59511 -292.4459 472.5234 -292.4459
68.3992828735 249.9697564082 0.27363023374 0.792267 -522.6853 659.4838 -522.6853

.6839170379 +19.847695601918X1-517.994766666034X2+90.0387451234576X3+68.3992828735378X4

LINEST
90.0387451235 -517.994766666 19.8476956019 28619.68
161.752831516 327.2785341869 0.78078157859 208498.1
77468.3181166 #N/A #N/A #N/A
7 #N/A #N/A #N/A
 42009382183 #N/A #N/A #N/A

8619.6839170379+19.847695601918X1-517.994766666034x2+90.0387451234576x3+68.3992828735378X4

ERIFY THE VALIDITY OR REGRESSION

error <0.005%?
nt variable sensitivity > 2
0.99242259766 YES
0.019058703157 YES
0.083333333333 NO
0.273630233739 NO 0.556644 NO -1.582734 NO
0.137265916988 NO

nergy
0 11 12
 Upper 95.0%
521639.4
21.69395
255.896
472.5234
659.4838

8735378X4
2828735378X4

25.42029 NO
 Axis X Axis Y
Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Total Production (Ton) Energy (G/J)

Jan-15 215787.337 4312719.12361472
Feb-15 191313.72 3759582.20267594 5000000
Mar-15 4500000
208850.5 4263728.66074357 4000000
Apr-15 192325.09 3865324.59934143 3500000 f(x) = 2
May-15 3000000 R² = 0.0
204521.534 4076459.03338877

Energy
2500000
Jun-15 195630.441 3964889.31652421 2000000
1500000
Jul-15 200261.36 4023171.6928222 1000000
Aug-15 176347.88 3527311.67205526 500000
0
Sep-15 178512.67 3621506.39517501 170000 175000 18000
Oct-15 194755.57 4036172.0793823
Nov-15 194373.83 9982.14114968
Dec-15 195835.93 11004.39470991

Energy Drivers
X1 X2 X3 X4
Coal MFO DO MB DO RB
Jan-15 214900.98 256.86 486.93 142.567
Feb-15 190469.58 213.88 393.96 236.3
Mar-15 207645.07 290.4 619 296.03
Apr-15 191419.36 157.84 421.55 326.34
May-15 203783.21 159.58 366.17 212.574
Jun-15 194481.36 185.82 261.56 701.701
Jul-15 199336.81 273.46 248.26 402.83
Aug-15 175680.92 313.77 222.72 130.47
Sep-15 177536.19 412.21 354.13 210.14
Oct-15 193528.06 393.67 628.43 205.41
Nov-15 193505.78 268.78 381.57 217.7
Dec-15 195089.17 206.19 301.84 238.73
JUMLAH
SELISIH
AVERAGE
 2013
5000000
4500000
4000000
3500000 f(x) = 23.5742411937344 x − 1324385.67220968
3000000 R² = 0.02902445031516
Energy

2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
170000 175000 180000 185000 190000 195000 200000 205000 210000 215000 220000
Total Production

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Actual Energy Prediction Energy Regression Statistics

4,312,719 3,413,467 Multiple R 0.375656865472618
3,759,582 2,985,643 R Square 0.141118080576712
4,263,729 4,257,533 Adjusted R Squ -0.34967158766517
3,865,325 3,169,546 Standard Error 1799455.54759698
4,076,459 2,834,025 Observations 12
3,964,889 3,918,817
4,023,172 3,335,776 ANOVA
3,527,312 2,301,056 df
3,621,506 3,237,146 Regression 4
4,036,172 4,161,702 Residual 7
9,982 3,099,334 Total 11
11,004 2,757,808
39,471,851 39471851.311583 Coefficients
0 Intercept -1833363.4362555
3,289,321 3,289,321 X Variable 1 12.2586597151712
X Variable 2 3036.1051496205
X Variable 3 2911.31631461919
X Variable 4 2910.70744095212

Y=-1833363.4362555+12.2586

2910.70744095212
3897.24865770286
0.141118080576713
0.287532704350175
 3724169899955.39
#N/A
Y=-1833363.4362555+12.2586

PART B : VERIFY THE VALIDITY OR RE

Regression Checks
R2>0.75?
Cvrmse<0.2?
Mean bias error <0.005%?
Independent variable sensitivity > 2
Intercept tstat>2?

Perbandingan Actual & Prediciton Energy

5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Actual Predictive
 SS MS F Significance F
3724169899955 931042474989 0.28753270435 0.877188
2.2666282E+13 3238040267778
2.6390452E+13

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
13378202.3734 -0.13704109006 0.89485665342-33467785 29801058-33467785 29801058
68.2508090926 0.179611932491 0.86254586747 -149.1289 173.6462 -149.1289 173.6462
8658.04242848 0.350668777001 0.7361527827 -17436.91 23509.12 -17436.91 23509.12
5665.88456657 0.513832620558 0.62318661747 -10486.37 16309 -10486.37 16309
3897.2486577 0.746862131878 0.47947567881 -6304.821 12126.24 -6304.821 12126.24

833363.4362555+12.2586597151712X1+3036.1051496205x2+2911.31631461919x3+2910.70744095212X4

LINEST
2911.31631462 3036.105149621 12.2586597152 -1833363
5665.88456657 8658.042428479 68.2508090926 13378202
1799455.5476 #N/A #N/A #N/A
7 #N/A #N/A #N/A
 2.2666282E+13 #N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
833363.4362555+12.2586597151712X1+3036.1051496205x2+2911.31631461919x3+2910.70744095212X4

ERIFY THE VALIDITY OR REGRESSION

error <0.005%?
nt variable sensitivity > 2
0.141118080577 NO
0.547059888342 NO
0.083333333333 NO
0.746862131878 NO 0.513833 NO 0.350669 NO
-0.13704109006 NO

nergy
10 11 12
Upper 95.0%

0744095212X4
0744095212X4

0.179612 NO
 INTENTITAS ENERGI 2013

Actual Energy
JUMLAH
January 300301.77 8,864,965
SEC (Kwh/Ton)
February 12000000
316024.44 9,018,204
March 338135.301 9,415,962 10000000
April 338901.791 9,349,359 8000000
May 343471.82 9,502,757
June 6000000
360636.64 10,035,738
July 360805.77 10,681,489 4000000
August 349462.91 10,234,400 2000000
September 348587.91 10,246,823
October 0
362962.086 8,367,639 ril st r r r
y
ar uar
y ch ay ne ly
Ju ugu mbe tobe mbe
November 381280.736 10,365,961 nu r ar Ap M Ju
a b M A e Oc ove ec
J Fe pt
December 191983.29 10,437,987 Se N D

JUMLAH 116,521,286

9,710,107

INTENTITAS ENERGI 2014

Actual Energy
Jumlah

January
SEC (Kwh/Ton)
372604.68 3,976,185
6000000
February 396327.23 3,392,408
March 447127.2 4,461,434 5000000
April 444612.92 4,375,971 4000000
May 450591.877 4,315,729
3000000
June 456137.007 4,591,658
July 456692.51 4,611,351 2000000
August 455436.757 4,633,202 1000000
September 451316.371 4,368,176
0
October 390092.194 4,458,906 y y h ril ay ne ly st r r r
uar uar arc Ap M Ju Ju ugu mbe tobe mbe
November 285290.87 3,242,805 n r M e
Ja Fe
b A pt Oc ove
December Se N D
119106.53 2,348,831
JUMLAH 4,725,336
4,725,336
393,778 4,064,721

INTENTITAS ENERGI 2014

 Actual Energy
Jumlah

January 372604.68 3,976,185 SEC (Kwh/Ton)

February 396327.23 3,392,408 6000000
March 447127.2 4,461,434
5000000
April 444612.92 4,375,971
May 450591.877 4,315,729 4000000
June 456137.007 4,591,658 3000000
July 456692.51 4,611,351
2000000
August 455436.757 4,633,202
September 451316.371 4,368,176 1000000
October 390092.194 4,458,906 0
November 285290.87 3,242,805 ry ry ch ril ay ne ly st r
Ju ugu mbe tobe
nua rua ar Ap M Ju
December Ja b M A e Oc
119106.53 2,348,831 Fe pt
Se
JUMLAH 4,725,336
4,725,336
393,778 4,064,721

INTENTITAS ENERGI 2015

Actual Energy
Jumlah

January 407101.057 4,312,719 SEC (Kwh/Ton)

February 400164.22 3,759,582 5000000
March 401175.59 4,263,729 4500000
April 396846.624 3,865,325 4000000
May 400151.975 4,076,459 3500000
3000000
June 395891.801 3,964,889 2500000
July 376609.24 4,023,172 2000000
August 354860.55 3,527,312 1500000
September 373268.24 3,621,506 1000000
500000
October 389129.4 4,036,172 0
November 390209.76 9,982 ry ry ch ril ay ne ly st
Ju ugu mbe
r
nua rua ar Ap M Ju
December 195835.93 11,004 Ja b M A pt
e
Fe Se
O
JUMLAH 4,481,244
4,481,244
373,437 3,289,321
wh/Ton)

ne ly st r r r r
Ju Ju ugu mbe tobe mbe mbe
A e Oc ove ece
pt
Se N D

Kwh/Ton)

ne ly st r r r r
Ju Ju ugu mbe tobe mbe mbe
A e Oc ove ce
pt De
Se N
EC (Kwh/Ton)

l ly st r r r r
ay ne Ju ugu mbe tobe mbe mbe
M Ju
A e Oc ove ce
pt De
Se N

SEC (Kwh/Ton)

ril ay ne ly st r r
Ju ugu mbe tobe mbe mbe
r r
Ap M Ju
e
A pt Oc ove ce
Se N De