PART II: Quantitative Reasoning & Interpreting Data
Inflation Chart
1) What do you think the relationship is
between inflation and unemployment?
Explain!
I think that there is a positive correlation
between them. As unemployment increases,
inflation increases as well, people won’t
have the money or resources to survive.
2) Sketch a diagram showing the relationship
between the two.
3) The graph below shows Egypt’s
unemployment rate for the past 20 years.
Superimpose the inflation curve based on
the relationship you proposed above.
GDP and Life Expectancy
The graph below shows data from the World
Bank. GDP is the total value of the goods and
services produced in a country, and is a
measure of how rich a country is.
1) Explain why the direction and form of this
relationship makes sense.
The direction and form of this relationship
makes sense for many reasons. It shows
that as the GDP increases, life
expectancy increases as well since the
country has the money and resources for
health care and support. Also, inflation
decreases and so does unemployment,
therefore the life expectancy will increase
as well. On the other hand, as GDP
decreases, we can see how the life
expectancy decreases as well, the
country doesn’t have the money or
resources to take care of its citizens,
population increases, unemployment and
inflation and therefore life expectancy
decreases automatically.
2) Is it safe to conclude that the graph
represent a causal link between GDP
(cause) and Life Expectancy (effect)?
Explain.
Yes, however, there are money other
causes that may lead to a reduced or
increased Life Expectancy. There is a link
between GDP and Life Expectancy because
GDP shows how rich and resourceful a
country is. Logically, a country with a high
GDP will have the money and resources for
healthcare and support, therefore, life
expectancy will increase and vice versa.
Showing that there is in fact a link between
the cause and effect.
 GRE Study
Fifteen college seniors, none of whom took any
math classes in college, were selected for a
clinical trial. An online GRE Math Course was
made available to them, and these students
were allowed to study for however many hours
they wanted. Then, each took the GRE for their
first time. The graph below records how many
hours each student studied, using the online
material, and that student’s GRE Quant score.
The best-fit line model shows the best
prediction, given such a student’s hours of
study, of what her GRE Q score might be.
3) Among the students in this trial who studied
for 20 hours or more, what fraction of them
performed worse than expected, according
to the best-fit line model? Express your
answer as a fraction
2/15
4) Provide at least two different explanation to
the results shown.
- People who studied less than 25
hours had the lowest grades.

- People who studies for more hours,

did better on the test.

The following graph shows the total revenues

and total costs of QN Corporation, a publicly
traded company, over the span 2007-2015.
Recall that, for any year, profit = (revenue) –
(cost).

1) Among the students in this trial who studied

less than 25 hours, what is the highest GRE
Quant score achieved?

(A) 146
(B) 149
(C) 154
(D) 157
(E) 165
1) In 2013, the dollar amount of the profit at
QN Corporation was approximately which of the
following?
2) For the students in this trial with the three
highest scores, approximately what is the
(A) $80 million
average number of hours they spend
studying? (B) $160 million
(C) $190 million
(A) 29 (D) $240 million
(B) 32 (E) $350 million
(C) 35
(D) 39
(E) 43
2) From 2010 to 2015, revenue at QN 3) From 2009 to 2010, profit at QN Corporation
Corporation increased by approximately what increased by approximately what percent?
percent?
(A) 81%
(A) 18% (B) 165%
(B) 47% (C) 300%
(C) 63% (D) 433%
(D) 84% (E) 533%
(E) 126%

PART II: USING QUANTITATIVE REASONING TO UNDERSTAND CORONA VIRUS

(COVID-19)

PART A.
The symptoms of COVID-19 infection appear after an incubation period of approximately 5.2 days (17). The period from
the onset of COVID-19 symptoms to death ranged from 6 to 41 days with a median of 14 days. This period is dependent on
the age of the patient and status of the patient's immune system and was shorter among patients >70-years old (13). The
most common symptoms at onset of COVID-19 illness are fever, cough, and fatigue, followed by sputum production,
headache, haemoptysis, diarrhea and dyspnea (13,16,18,19). Clinical features reveal pneumonia with abnormal features such
as acute respiratory distress syndrome and acute cardiac injury that lead to death (19).

1. Which age group has the highest

probability of dying from COVID-19?

80+

2. Which age group has the lowest

probability of dying?

10-19

3. What ages have less than a 1%

probability of dying?

10-19

4. What is the range for the death rate

data?

15%
1. Which group has a higher death rate, 19-year olds with the COVID-19 or 70-year olds with the
flu?

70 year olds with the flu.

2. Which virus has a higher maxiumum death rate, COVID-19 or the Flu?

COVID-19

3. What is the most frequent death rate of COVID-19?

0.2%

4. What is the most frequent death rate of the flu?

0.01%

5. What is the minimum death rate of the flu?

0.01%

6. What is the minimum death rate of COVID-19?

0.2%

1. Which is deadlier, corona virus or measles?

Corona Virus

2. Which is more contagious, chickenpox or

corona virus?

Chicken Pox

3. Based on the figure, which illnesses are most

similar to corona virus in their level of contagion?

Spanish Flu, SARS, Seasonal Flu, Polio, Common Cold, Ebola, Bird Flu

PART B.

Article: Coronavirus: What is ‘falttening the curve, and will it work?

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve.html
Efforts to completely contain the new coronavirus — the pandemic responsible for infecting
hundreds of thousands of people in 130 countries with the disease, called COVID-19 — have
failed. 

In less than a month, the global number of confirmed COVID-19 cases doubled from about 75,000
cases on Feb. 20 to more than 153,000 on March 15. That infection rate, scary as it sounds, hides
just how much the out-of control virus has spread, especially in the hardest-hit communities. In Italy,
for example — the country with the worst COVID-19 outbreak outside of China — confirmed cases
doubled from 10,000 to 20,000 in just four days (March 11 to March 15). 
This rapid growth rate in Italy has already filled some hospitals there to capacity, forcing emergency
rooms to close their doors to new patients, hire hundreds of new doctors and request emergency
supplies of basic medical equipment, like respirator masks, from abroad. This lack of resources
contributes, in part, to the outsize COVID-19 death rate in Italy, which is roughly 7% — double the
global average, PBS reported.

Health officials take for granted that COVID-19 will continue to infect millions of people around the
world over the coming weeks and months. However, as the outbreak in Italy shows, the rate at
which a population becomes infected makes all the difference in whether there are enough hospital
beds (and doctors, and resources) to treat the sick. 

In epidemiology, the idea of slowing a virus' spread so that fewer people need to seek treatment at
any given time is known as "flattening the curve." It explains why so many countries are
implementing "social distancing" guidelines — including a "shelter in place" order that affects 6.7
million people in Northern California, even though COVID-19 outbreaks there might not yet seem
severe. Here's what you need to know about the curve, and why we want to flatten it.

What is the curve?

The "curve" researchers are talking about refers to the projected number of people who will contract
COVID-19 over a period of time. (To be clear, this is not a hard prediction of how many people will
definitely be infected, but a theoretical number that's used to model the virus' spread.) Here's what
one looks like:

The curve takes on different shapes, depending on the virus's infection rate. It could be a steep
curve, in which the virus spreads exponentially (that is, case counts keep doubling at a consistent
rate), and the total number of cases skyrockets to its peak within a few weeks. Infection curves with
a steep rise also have a steep fall; after the virus infects pretty much everyone who can be infected,
case numbers begin to drop exponentially, too. 
The faster the infection curve rises, the quicker the local health care system gets overloaded
beyond its capacity to treat people. As we're seeing in Italy, more and more new patients may be
forced to go without ICU beds, and more and more hospitals may run out of the basic supplies they
need to respond to the outbreak. 

A flatter curve, on the other hand, assumes the same number of people ultimately get infected, but
over a longer period of time. A slower infection rate means a less stressed health care system,
fewer hospital visits on any given day and fewer sick people being turned away. 

For a simple metaphor, consider an office bathroom. "Your workplace bathroom has only so many
stalls," Charles Bergquist, director of the public radio science show "Science Friday" tweeted. "If
everyone decides to go at the same time, there are problems. If the same number of people need
go to the restroom but spread over several hours, it's all ok."

How do we flatten the curve?

As there is currently no vaccine or specific medication to treat COVID-19, and because testing is so
limited in the U.S., the only way to flatten the curve is through collective action. The U.S. Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has recommended that all Americans wash their hands
frequently, self-isolate when they're sick or suspect they might be, and start "social distancing"
(essentially, avoiding other people whenever possible) right away. 
To comply, many states have temporarily closed public schools, and many businesses have
advised employees to work from home if possible. On March 15, the CDC advised that all events of
50 people or more should be canceled or postponed for the next eight weeks. On Monday (March
16), six counties in the Bay Area — encompassing some 6.7 million people — gave "shelter in
place" orders, meaning that people should not leave their house except to get essentials like food or
medicine. 

So, does flattening the curve work?

It did in 1918, when a strain of influenza known as the Spanish flu caused a global pandemic. To see
how it played out, we can look at two U.S.
cities — Philadelphia and St. Louis — Drew
Harris, a population health researcher at
Thomas Jefferson University in
Philadelphia, told NPR.org.
In Philadelphia, city officials ignored
warnings from infectious disease experts
that the flu was already spreading in the
community. The city instead moved forward
with a massive parade that gathered
hundreds of thousands of people together,
Harris said.

"Within 48, 72 hours, thousands of people

around the Philadelphia region started to
die," Harris said. Ultimately, about 16,000
people from the city died in six months.
In St. Louis, meanwhile, city officials quickly implemented social isolation strategies. The
government closed schools, limited travel and encouraged personal hygiene and social distancing.
As a result, the city saw just 2,000 deaths — one-eighth of the casualties in Philadelphia. St. Louis,
now known for its towering Gateway Arch, had successfully flattened the curve.

QUESTIONS:

1. Why is socially distancing important? Support your reasoning with data and information from the
figures and text.

Socially distancing is important because it limits the spread of the virus. This is shown in the graph
for the Spanish Flu. On one hand, St. Louis took precautions, social distanced and limited travel
while on the other hand, Philadelphia, did the opposite. They didn’t social distance and ignored all
the warnings, therefore, their death rates were five times more than St. Louis. St. Louis had 2,000
deaths while Philadelphia saw about 16,000 deaths in just 6 months.

2. “The curve takes on different shapes, depending on the virus's infection rate. It could be a steep
curve, in which the virus spreads exponentially (that is, case counts keep doubling at a consistent rate),
and the total number of cases skyrockets to its peak within a few weeks. Infection curves with a steep
rise also have a steep fall; after the virus infects pretty much everyone who can be infected, case
numbers begin to drop exponentially, too.” 

Based on the above information, what will “flattening” the curve shorten or lengthen the amount of
time it takes for the virus to infect everyone who can be infected and cases begin to drop?

It will take more time since the virus is progressing slowly, not like in the beginning as it is not
infecting people as rapidly when the curve was rising exponentially. Almost everyone is going to be
infected by the virus and then eventually the curve will slow down exponentially.

3. How many people died in Philadelphia during the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918?

About 16,000

4. How many people died in St. Louis during the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918?

2,000

5. Explain why the numbers of deaths were so different.

They were so different as different precautions were taken. On one hand, St. Louis took
precautions, social distanced and limited travel while on the other hand, Philadelphia, did the
opposite. They didn’t social distance and ignored all the warnings, therefore, their death rates were
five times more than St. Louis. St. Louis had 2,000 deaths while Philadelphia saw about 16,000
deaths in just 6 months.
6. The number of deaths in Philadelphia was close to 0 by November of 1918, meaning the worst of
the virus was over, whereas St. Louis took much longer to see deaths reach close to zero. Explain
why taking longer was actually better.

St. Louis was taking longer to actually get better because the virus progressed slowly as they social
distanced and took effective precautions and therefore it will also decrease slowly because it took
more time for the people to get the virus than the people in Philadelphia. Philadelphia had high
exponential growth of the virus, meaning that the virus spread at a very fast rate and therefore
everyone either survived the virus or died from it and that’s why they reached the zero faster that
St. Louis.

PART C.
Article reference: Gautret et al. (2020) Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID‐19:
results of an open‐label non‐randomized clinical trial. International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents – In Press
17 March 2020 – DOI : 10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.105949
Scientists throughout the globe are currently working to develop treatments and vaccines for
COVID-19. One treatment that is showing promising results is the use of an antimalarial drug called
Hydroxychloroquine. Researchers just completed a study investigating the effectiveness of these
drugs in treating COVID-19.

Gautret et al. gave hydroxychloroquine to 20 patients who had COVID-19. They then monitored
these patients symptoms. They also monitored 16 patients who had COVID-19 but did not receive
hydroxylchloroquine. They ran statistical tests to compare the recovery of patients and found a
significant difference between those treated with hydroxychloroquine and those not treated:
Percentage of patients still testing positive for COVID19
1. Based on the figure, was the hypothesis supported?

Yes, there was a significant difference between the experimental and control group. This
showed a positive progress in the experimental group, showing the effectiveness of the drug
hydroxychloroquine and therefore, supporting the hypothesis.

2. On day 6, what percentage of patients treated with Hydroxychloroquine still tested positive
for COVID-19?

30%

3. One day 6, what percentage of patients not treated with Hydroxychloroquine still tested
positive for COVID-19?

About 90%

4. We now know that Hydroxychloroquine is not an effective treatment for covid-19. Discuss a
potential explanation for this study determining there is an effect of hydroxychloroquine on
Covid-19 illness when the effect doesn’t actually exist.

The placebo effect. Convincing the patients that this treatment will heal them from the
corona virus.