September 19, 2007

Water, Water Everywhere

By Michael Akerib
Special to Russia Profile

Can the Former Soviet Republics Learn to Manage their Water Resources?

Water is one of the four elements, together with air, food and light, without which life cannot
exist. We are ourselves primarily made of water and need to absorb 2.5 liters per day to remain
in good health. We also need water to grow the food we consume – so-called ‘virtual’ water –
and our indirect consumption of water is between 1,000 and 2,000 liters per day.

Over the last 100 years, water needs have increased tenfold. The biggest user of water is
agriculture, which represents 70 percent of all water used, with industry consuming 20 percent
and individuals, the remaining 10 percent. Some authors have called water “blue gold,” and
increasingly well-known public figures have stated that the wars of the future will be waged to
secure water sources rather than oil or gas.

A small number of countries are the world’s water reservoir, accounting for 60 percent of
resources. Brazil has the world’s largest water reserves, most of which are in the Amazon River,
followed by Russia, which claims 20 percent of the world’s water in Lake Baikal. Should there be
severe shortages in other countries, both Brazil and Russia could develop substantial export
markets for their water resources. At present prices relative to transport costs, however, such
trade does not make economic sense.

Fears of global warming, and therefore of increased evaporation, together with increased
urbanization, improved living standards and wastage due both to poor, leaky, infrastructure
increase the risk of future shortages. In some areas, up to 70 percent of the water in the
adduction system is believed to be lost due to leakages and poor maintenance. It is estimated
that improvements in infrastructure would require investments of around $5 trillion.

Lack of water leads to droughts, famines, exacerbated social tensions leading to political and
societal collapse and, finally, dependence on foreign powers.

Compared to other industries, agriculture does not make the most economically-effective use of
water, so over the long term, it would make sense to develop agricultural production and
exports from water-rich countries, such as Canada and Russia, to water-poor areas. 

An alternative to such a dependency is investment in major irrigation projects or the

encouragement of small-scale agricultural developments that recycle some spent water or
rainwater.

Roughly half the food produced worldwide comes from fields whose water source is exclusively
rain. Governments should therefore encourage investments in water reservoirs and other
water-retention techniques or invest in them.

In China and India, however, approximately half of food production relies on irrigation, which
not only depletes rivers and lakes, but also destroys natural habitats for fish and wildlife. It also
increases the salt content of the soil and reduces its yield. Many major Chinese rivers, including
the Yellow River and the Yangtze River, are heavily polluted.

Some Chinese cities have already started rationing water use and water-intensive industries are
discouraged from expanding.

There are apparently plans to sell water from Lake Baikal to China via a pipeline and perhaps
even exporting the water to other parts of the world, although a cellulose plant has been
pouring chemicals into the lake disregarding its status as a UN World Heritage site. Since 2004,
Russian law has allowed private ownership of water resources, with the exception, however, of
Baikal.

Many bodies of water worldwide have seen their amount of water diminish to the point that
water availability is now a factor limiting economic growth.

The case of the Aral Sea is the most dramatic example of an increase in the salt content
followed by a disappearance of a substantial part of its surface. The United Nations has called it
the world’s worst man-made environmental disaster. Much of the water from the Aral Sea’s
tributaries, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, was diverted to cotton fields in Uzbekistan and
Kazakhstan for irrigation purposes. Cotton, the region’s most economically important crop,
requires considerable amounts of water and modernizing the irrigation systems of the area
would require investments of around $16 billion.

Since the break-up of the Soviet Union and the end of the subsidies from Moscow,
infrastructure throughout the region has not been maintained. Wastage of water due to poor
maintenance and lack of technological upgrades has caused consumption to be 150 percent of
what it should be under normal conditions. Further droughts have reduced the level of available
water by 20 percent. An increase in population levels, accompanied by the need for more food,
are also leading Central Asian countries to expand their agricultural production at a time when
their ability to irrigate is decreasing.

There has also been a lack of a coherent water policy among these states. Countries barter
water for coal, gas or electric power, but Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have been unable to
deliver their side of the bargain regularly, leading Kyrgyzstan, the main water supplier, to
release water in winter, creating floods and reduce water delivery in summer. This situation has
led to considerable tensions, including threatening statements and military maneuvers,
between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan as well as between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.

Actually, the area does not lack water. Instead, it suffers from poor water management. In
Central Asia, Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are the upstream countries, but they draw
less than 20 percent of the water. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are downstream
and draw considerable amounts. Uzbekistan alone draws 52 percent.
 With the help of a loan from the World Bank, the Kazakh government has built a dam dividing
the Aral Sea in two. The Kazakh side of the sea is now filling up again while the Uzbek side is
dying.

Several other lakes in the former Soviet Union are suffering to the point of extinction from
pollution, salinization, deforestation and other attacks on the natural environment.

Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov voiced a plan to divert part of the Siberian rivers in order to sell
the water to Central Asian republics. This is a revival of an old plan that was abandoned due to
pressure from a number of leading figures and environmental groups. The only advantage
Russia would have would be to increase its clout in the area. The cost of building a canal over
such a long distance, however, is unlikely to be born either by Russia or by the Central Asian
states.

The World Bank has recommended a series of steps to combat the problem, including a pact
regulating the use of water based on population and by contribution of the formation of the
resources. Other recommended measures include cooperation in establishing crop growing
areas, contribution by financial institutions such as the Central Asian Bank for Development and
the creation of an inter-country market through which quotas could be sold by one country to
another.

No doubt international organizations and regional or major powers will attempt to interfere in
order to prevent these disputes degenerating into open military conflict. This is one more
example of compromises that nations have to make – limiting their sovereignty in exchange for
peace, access to international markets and aid. In a global world, equity is not as
straightforward as it used to be. We live increasingly in an age of compromise.

© Russia Profile.org 2007