Professional Documents
Culture Documents
at the
People‘s Campus
Tribhuvan University
Kathmandu
March, 2017
STUDENT’S DECLARATION
This is to certify that I have completed the Summer Project entitled ‖Factor
Influencing Investment decision making : A study of Investors at NEPSE‖ under the
guidance of Prof Gopal Krishna Shrestha‖ in partial fulfillment of the requirements
for the degree of Bachelor of Business Administration at Faculty of Management,
Tribhuvan University. This is my original work and I have not submitted it earlier
elsewhere.
Date: Signature:
ii
Certificate from the supervisor
This is to certify that the summer project entitled ―Factor Influencing Investment
decision making: A study of Investors in NEPSE‖ is an academic work done by
―Pradeep Phuyal‖ submitted in the partial fulfillment of the requirements for the
degree of Bachelor of Business Administration at Faculty of Management,
Tribhuvan University under my guidance and supervision. To the best of my
knowledge, the information presented by him/her in the summer project report has not
been submitted earlier.
____________________
Signature of the Supervisor
Name: Prof Dr. Gopal Krishna Shrestha
Designation: Supervisor
Date:
iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Individuals and Organizations did contribute immensely towards the success of this
thesis. My limitless thanks go to my supervisor, Mr. Bikash Shrestha and Dr. Gopal
Krishna Shrestha , , for painstakingly seeing me through the arduous task of summer
project, and also for his unflinching support and relentless advice to ensure the
completion of my studies. Besides, their understanding, encouraging and personal
guidance has provided the good basis for this present form of project report.
Therefore, I would like to convey my special thanks to respected sir for their valuable
inputs
Pradeep Phuyal
March, 2017
iv
Table of Contents
v
2.9 Opinion on firm image/ self image coincidence as determinant of investment decision.
............................................................................................................................................. 33
2.10 Opinion on investment decision as determinant of investment decision. .................. 33
2.11 Co-relation analysis ...................................................................................................... 34
2.12 Regression analysis ...................................................................................................... 36
2.13 Independent sample t-test .......................................................................................... 38
2.14 Finding and discussion ................................................................................................. 39
CHAPTER III .............................................................................................................................. 42
CONCLUSION AND ACTION IMPLEMENTATION....................................................................... 42
3.1 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 42
3.2 Action implications ........................................................................................................ 42
3.2.1 Implication for the investors ................................................................................... 42
3.2.2 Implications for future research ............................................................................. 43
References
Appendix I
vi
LIST OF TABLES
vii
Acronyms
AI: Accounting Information
KTM: Kathmandu
viii
Executive Summary
Investment is the present sacrifice amount with a view to earn future return. Present
investment is certain but future investment is uncertain thus investment involves the
some degree of risk; hence investment decisions are made by the investors and
investment managers to mitigate the uncertainty of risk. This study examined the
factors that appear to exercise the greatest influence on the individual stock investor,
and included not only the factors investigated by previous studies and derived from
prevailing behavioral finance theories. The accounting information advocate
recommendation and firm image /self image are the independent variable to
investment decision. A total of 80 structure questionnaire were distributed using
judgmental sampling of which 69 were used for data analysis. The main purpose of
the study was to understand the investment decision pattern of investors at NEPSE
along with impact and relationship of variables over decision making. The sample
was collected from the capital and brokers houses and random investors of below 40
and above 40 age group.
The major findings of the study were the firm image / self image coincidence has the
highest relationship and impact over the investment decision followed by the
accounting information and advocate recommendation. There is the positive
relationship of these independent variable over investment decision. Further it was
found that there was positive impact of the variables over the investment decision but
since the investment decision is affected by several factors, these variables only have
explaining power of 5.8%. Similarly it was also concluded that investors ranked the
accounting information as the most important variable affecting the investment
decision. However, as most of the respondents had the limited knowledge of financial
literacy latter concluded that firm image/ self image coincidence has the highest
importance at NEPSE. Most of the investors concluded the commercial bank stock as
there priority sectors of investment which concluded most of them are the risk averse
investor s and always what to be at the safer side while making the portfolio decision.
However there was no significant mean difference across male and female on the
investment decision. The findings of the study has the implication for investors to
evaluate their investment decision, to the marketer to know the investors investment
activity and to the future researcher as the basis for conducting similar research, that
several factors need to be studied to know investment decision at NEPSE
ix
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
The investment decision of the investors depends upon fundamental analysis i.e.
Security Analysis by Graham and Dodd (1934) is used to decide intrinsic value of
stocks based on studying factors of economy situations, industry trend and sales
revenues of those companies and technical analysis i.e. examine the price behavior of
the securities the past behavior shows the present trend. Investor market behavior
derives from psychological principles of decision making to explain why people buy
or sell stocks. These factors will focus upon how investors interpret and act on
information to make investment decisions. Behavioral finance is defined by Shefrin,
(2000) as a rapidly growing area that deals with the influence of psychology on the
behavior of financial practitioners. Individual investments behavior is concerned with
choices about purchases of small amounts of securities for his or her own account
(Nofsinger and Richard, 2002). No matter how much an investor is well informed, has
done research, studied deeply about the stock before investing, he also behaves
irrationally with the fear of loss in the future. This different behavior in the individual
1
investors is caused by various factors which compromise the investor rationality. An
individual investor is one who purchases generally small amounts of securities for his
or her own account.
Conventional theorists assumed that the most of the investors are the risk averse and
try to minimize the risk at the maximum return but the nature of investors depends
upon the risk attitude of investors towards the security. Research in behavioral finance
has developed rapidly in recent years and provides evidence that investors' financial
decisions are also affected by internal and external behavioral factors (Shefrin, 2000;
Shleifer, 2000; Warneryd, 2001). Behavioral finance is focused on the individual‘s
psychological factors which contribute towards effective decision making (Ritter,
2003). Investors habitually invest with the help of social interactions, friends and
family. Subjective norms influence investor decision making. Social influence leads
to investor behave irrationally. Investors do herding some time and it leads to wrong
decision making and investor suffer from losses. Media also influences decision
making of investor (Shiller, 2000). Now internet trading also increases individual
investors usually do trading with the help of internet (Barber & Odean, 2000).
Mostly investors invest in the stock market due to long term growth they want to
become owner of the firm and get capital gain when share prices increases
(Croushore, 2006). Investors who hold major portion of shares of any company can
participate in strategic decision making. In recent era, stock market trading is
increased rapidly; rapid trading can give benefits to brokerage firms. It is reported that
twenty percent active investors who treaded more and regularly can get average return
of 7.2 percent which is less than return of passive investors (Barber & Odean, 2000).
The behavior of individual investor has been discussed in theory of planned behavior
and reasoned action. The primary focus of this study is to judge factors affect the
investor trading behavior, its attitude.
Stock market provides platform of human interaction (Hirschey & Nofsinger, 2008)
and plays a vital role in development of economy. It pools fund from the individuals
and institutions and channelize towards business and industries. The main role in the
market is that of individual investor, whose behavior is studied for academic as well
as professional reasons. Coming to the specific Nepali context Individual investors
might acquire information from friends, family, colleagues, print media, and
2
electronic media and then invest accordingly in the stock market. In addition to this an
individual might also obtain information from bankers, brokers and financial planners.
Nepal Stock Exchange, in short NEPSE, is established under the company act,
operating under Securities Exchange Act, 1983. The basic objective of NEPSE is to
impart free marketability and liquidity to the government and corporate securities by
facilitating transactions in its trading floor through member, market intermediaries,
such as broker, market makers etc. NEPSE opened its trading floor on 13th January
1994.
Specifically in the Nepalese context such studies are limited to few thus study is
designed . Nepalese stock market doesn‘t have the big history and is growing
primarily the investors has the commercial banks, insurance companies , microfinance
company ,development bank, manufacturing industry , hydropower company ,mutual
fund to invest and trade in the capital market. Thus how the investors make their
portfolio is debatable either they perform market research or are affected by the
signaling effects.
Individual investors are different from each other and might take different investment
decision, and yet there always seem to be a pool of investors who have similar
investment pattern. Number of Investors is increasing rapidly so there is need to
understand the behavior of investor in multiple ways like how investors invest? This
study examined the factors that appear to exercise the greatest influence on the
individual stock investor, and included not only the factors investigated by previous
studies and derived from prevailing behavioral finance theories.
3
2) To analyse the impact of accounting information, advocate recommendation
and firm image / self image coincidence on the investment decision in
Nepalese stock market.
3) To examine the significant differences of accounting information, advocate
recommendation and firm image / self image coincidence on the investment
decision in Nepalese stock market across the age group below 40 and above
40.
4
and why markets do not reliably behave as they are expected to behave. Behavioral
finance seeks to find how investor‘s emotions and psychology affect investment
decisions. It is the study of how people in general and investors in particular make
common errors in their financial decision due to their emotions. It is nothing but the
study of why otherwise rational people take some really thumbs investment decisions.
5
According to researchers, the disadvantages and losses have larger impact on
preference than advantages and gains (Kahneman & Tversky, 1991). Households and
individuals use set of cognitive operations to evaluate, organize and keep track of
financial activities (Thaler, 1985).
It deals with the emotional reaction people experience after realizing they've made an
error in judgment. Faced with the prospect of selling a stock, investors become
emotionally affected by the price at which they purchased the stock. So, they avoid
selling it as a way to avoid the regret of having made a bad investment, as well as the
embarrassment of reporting a loss. Regret theory can also hold true for investors who
find a stock they had considered buying but did not went up in value. Some investors
avoid the possibility of feeling this regret by following the conventional wisdom and
buying only stocks that everyone else is buying, rationalizing their decision with
"everyone else is doing it". Under the prospect theory people generally show the
certainty effect i.e. they underestimate the probable outcome in comparison to the
outcome which is certain. Certainty effect contributes to risk aversion in the scenario
of sure profits and risk tolerance in the scenario of sure losses.
A core idea of mental accounting is that people treat money differently, depending on
factors such as the money‘s origin and intended use, rather than thinking of it in terms
of formal accounting. An important term underlying the theory is fungibility, the fact
that all money is the same and has no labels. In mental accounting, people treat assets
as less fungible than they really are; they frame assets as belonging to current wealth,
6
current income, or future income It states that humans have a tendency to place
particular events into mental compartments, and the difference between these
compartments sometimes impacts our behavior more than the events themselves. An
investing example of mental accounting is best illustrated by the hesitation to sell an
investment that once had monstrous gains and now has a modest gain. During an
economic boom and bull market, people get accustomed to healthy, albeit paper,
gains. When the market correction deflates investor's net worth, they're more hesitant
to sell at the smaller profit margin. They create mental compartments for the gains
they once had, causing them to wait for the return of that gainful period (Thaler,
2001).
1.4.1.3 Prospect/Loss-aversion-theory
It suggests that people express a different degree of emotion towards gains than
towards losses. Individuals are more stressed by prospective losses than they are
happy from equal gains. An investment advisor won't necessarily get flooded with
calls from her client when she's reported, say, a $500,000 gain in the client's portfolio.
But, you can bet that phone will ring when it posts a $500,000 loss! A loss always
appears larger than a gain of equal size - when it goes deep into our pockets, the value
of money changes. Prospect theory also explains why investors hold onto losing
stocks: people often take more risks to avoid losses than to realize gains. For this
reason, investors willingly remain in a risky stock position, hoping the price will
bounce back. Gamblers on a losing streak will behave in a similar fashion, doubling
up bets in a bid to recoup what's already been lost. So, despite our rational desire to
get a return for the risks we take, we tend to value something we own higher than the
price we'd normally be prepared to pay for it. The loss-aversion theory points to
another reason why investors might choose to hold their losers and sell their winners:
they may believe that today's losers may soon outperform today's winners. Investors
often make the mistake of chasing market action by investing in stocks or funds which
garner the most attention. Research shows that money flows into high-performance
mutual funds more rapidly than money flows out from funds that are underperforming
(Kahneman and Tversky, 1979)
7
1.4.1.4. Over/under reacting theory
Barberis, Shleifer and Vishny (1998) present a model of investor sentiment that
displays under reaction of stock prices to news such as earnings announcements and
overreaction of stock prices to a series of good or bad news. A market hypothesis
stating that investors and traders react disproportionately to new information about a
security, this will cause the security's price to change dramatically, So that the price
will not fully reflect the security's true value immediately following the event.
Typically, the price swing from overreaction is not long lasting, as the stock price will
tend to return back to its true value over time. It says that investors get optimistic
when the market goes up, assuming it will continue to do so. Conversely, investors
become extremely pessimistic amid downturns. A consequence of anchoring, placing
too much importance on recent events while ignoring historical data, is an over- or
under-reaction to market events which results in prices falling too much on bad news
and rise too much on good news. At the peak of optimism, investor greed moves
stocks beyond their intrinsic value (Hong and Stein, 1999). Extreme cases of over- or
under-reaction to market events may lead to market panics and crashes. "One of the
accusations leveled at behavioral finance is that it predicts over-reaction, and at other
times it predicts under-reaction. (Monitor, 2002) claims that under-reaction and over-
reaction cancel each other out (Fama, 1998).
8
1994). In terms of investing, overconfidence can be detrimental to your stock-picking
ability in the long run. Overconfident investors generally conduct more trades than
their less-confident counter parts (Odean, 1998).Odean found that overconfident
investors/traders tend to believe they are better than others at choosing the best stocks
and best times to enter/exit a position. They ignore the fact the market may change in
the second that the financial position be reversed in a couple of blinks.
Unfortunately, traders that conducted the most trades tended, on average, to receive
significantly lower yields than the market.
9
Table 1.1
Al-Tamimi (2005) performance of the firm‘s stock, government holdings and the
creation of the organized financial markets.
10
Factors such as expected corporate earnings, firm status in
industry, condition of financial statements, protection of the
Merikas et al. (2008)
investor, recent price movements, get rich quick, ethics of the firm
significantly influence investor decisions.
Nagy and Obenberger (1994) examined factors influencing investor behavior. They
developed a questionnaire that included 34 questions. Their findings suggested that
classical wealth –maximization criteria are important to investors, even though
investors employ diverse criteria when choosing stocks. Contemporary concerns such
as local or international operations, environmental track record and the firm‘s ethical
posture appear to be given only cursory consideration. The recommendations of
brokerage houses, individual stockbrokers, family members and co-workers go
largely unheeded. Many individual investors discount the benefits of valuation models
when evaluating stocks. Thus, concluded that the firm image / self image coincidence
plays the cursory role for investment decision and advocate recommendation doesn‘t
affect much.
11
factors were found the least influencing factors, where less than 10percent of total
respondents consider these factors as the least affecting factors on their behavior. The
least influencing factor was by order of importance: expected losses in other local
investments, minimizing risk, expected losses in international financial markets,
family member opinions and gut feeling on the economy. The most influencing group
was by order of importance accounting information, self-image/ firm-image
coincidence, neutral information, advocate recommendation, and personal financial
needs. Two factors had unexpectedly least influence on the behavior of the UAE
investor behavior, namely the religious reasons and the factor of family member
opinions.
Baker et al. (2006) conducted a study on ‗Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of
Stock Returns‘ to identify how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock
returns and they have found that that when beginning-of-period sentiment are low,
subsequent re-turns are relatively high for small stocks, young stocks, high volatility
stocks, un-profitable stocks, non-dividend-paying stocks, extreme growth stocks, and
distressed stocks. When sentiment is high, on the other hand, these categories of stock
earn relatively low subsequent returns. The results suggest several avenues for future
work. In corporate finance, a better understanding of sentiment may shed light on
patterns in security issuance and the supply of firm characteristics that seem to be
conditionally relevant to share price. In asset pricing, the results suggest that
descriptively accurate models of prices and expected returns need to incorporate a
prominent role for investor sentiment.
Barber et al. (2008) conducted a study on ‗All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention
and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors‘ and
confirm the hypothesis that individual investors are net buyers of attention grabbing
stocks, e.g., stocks in the news, stocks experiencing high abnormal trading volume,
and stocks with extreme one-day returns. Attention-driven buying results from the
difficulty that investors have searching the thousands of stocks they can potentially
buy. Individual investors do not face the same search problem when selling because
they tend to sell only stocks they already own. We hypothesize that many investors
consider purchasing only stocks that have first caught their attention. Thus,
preferences determine choices after attention has determined the choice set. In making
a decision, we first select which options to consider and then decide which of those
12
options to choose. Attention is a scarce resource. When there are many alternatives,
options that attract attention are more likely to be considered, hence more likely to be
chosen, while options that do not attract attention are often ignored. If the salient
attributes of an option are critical to our utility, attention may serve us well. If not,
attention may lead to suboptimal choices. In this paper, we test the proposition that
individual investors are more likely to buy rather than sell those stocks that catch their
attention. We posit that this is so because attention affects buying—where investors
search across thousands of stocks—more than selling—where investors generally
choose only from the few stocks that they own. While each investor does not buy
every single stock that grabs his attention, individual investors are more likely to buy
attention-grabbing stocks than to sell them. Hence concluded that investors decision is
based upon the rumours and change in scenario in market like an overnight change in
the valuation of the stock in capital market.
13
Fares et al. (2011) conducted a study on ‗Individual Investors‘ Stock Trading
Behavior at Amman Stock Exchange‘ using the multiple regression technique and
identified four behavioral factors that influenced investors‘ trading decisions. The
Amman Stock Exchange being a small exchange does not use stock trading programs
that require advanced mathematical models. Most stock trading is executed the
traditional face-to-face way. Therefore, stock trading depends on individual traders‘
judgments. Investors‘ trading behavior is influenced by several behavioral factors.
Four explanatory variables were identified. The investor‘s age, his/her use of the
internet and his/her formal level of education were statistically significant (at 1percent
or 5percent level) with positive signs. The interaction between the investor and his/her
broker, on the other hand, had a highly significant and negative effect. Brokers did not
employ professionally trained analysts therefore they lost their clients‘ trust.
Thereupon, investors should educate themselves in the complexities of financial
markets including ways and means of combating market manipulations. They should
understand the brokers‘ job in order to make the most of their services. Brokers to
have good working relationships with their clients, they should seek qualified analysts
and be keen to provide timely, accurate, and transparent information in order to win
investors trust. This also helps the efficiency of the market. Authorities should take
every possible action to stop illegal practices, prevent, and pursue market
manipulators. Authorities should help make modern technology affordable and
accessible. Finally, the adoption of previous recommendations helps boost confidence
in the economy and encourage domestic investments and attract foreign capital..
14
data collected appears to give a fairly accurate view of the average equity investor in
the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). Experienced and knowledgeable investors would
readily admit that the structure and relative weights of the chosen categories reflect on
the average, a still unsophisticated and immature investor profile. The results revealed
by our sample of 150 respondents confirm that there seems to be a certain degree of
correlation between the factors that behavioral finance theory and previous empirical
evidence identify as the influencing factors for the average equity investor, and the
individual behavior of active investors in the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE)
influenced by the overall trends prevailing at the time of the survey in the ASE. Thus
they conclude that the individual investment decision has the correlation with the
behavioral finance variables as well as the different previously identified others
evidences while making an investment decision at ASE.
Rekik et al.,(2013) reveals that Tunisian investors do not always act rationally while
making investment decisions i.e. beside the rational factors like accounting
information of the company other behavioral factors also affects the individual
decision making. The study concluded that herding attitude, representativeness,
anchoring, loss aversion, and mental accounting all influence the Tunisian investors‘
perception of their decision making processes but there is an absence of over
confidence bias in the Tunisian Stock Market. In fact, Tunisian investors seem to be
under confident, hesitant and very sensitive to others‘ reactions and opinions. The
other finding related to the interaction between demographic variables and financial
behavioral factors particularly provided that the variables like gender, age, socio-
professional category, and experience all seem to have an influence on the behavior of
investors operating on the Tunisian Market. This study provides that people at certain
age, are less subject to psychological biases as they become more experienced while
as elder investors who are relatively less knowledgeable and have lower incomes are
subject to behavioral biases. Thus concluded that behavioral factors like mental
accounting, herding, anchoring plays the significant role in decision making, besides
demographic variable age plays role while making investment decision via
psychological biases.
15
information structure and the factors in the market systematically influence
individuals‘ investment decisions as well as market outcomes. The objective of the
study was to establish the factors influencing investment decisions at the Nairobi
Stock Exchange. The study was conducted on the 42 investors out of 50 investors that
constituted the sample size. To collect data the researcher used a structured
questionnaire that was personally administered to the respondents. The questionnaire
constituted 28 items. The respondents were the individual investors. In this study, data
was analyzed using frequencies, mean scores, standard deviations, percentages,
Friedman‘s test and Factor analysis techniques. The researcher confirmed that there
seems to be a certain degree of correlation between the factors that behavioral finance
theory and previous empirical evidence identify as the for the average equity investor.
The researcher found out that the most important factors that influence individual
investment decisions were: reputation of the firm, firm‘s status in industry, expected
corporate earnings, profit and condition of statement, past performance firms stock,
price per share, feeling on the economy and expected divided by investors. The
findings from this research would provide an understanding of the various decisions
to be made by investors based on the prevailing factors and the eventual outcomes for
each decision and would identify the most influencing factors on the company‘s
investors‘ behavior on how their future policies and strategies will be affected since
investment decisions by the investors will determine the company‘s strategy to be
applied.
16
The causal comparative research design is selected for the study to examine the
relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables under this
study. The causal-comparative research investigates the possible causes affecting a
particular situation by observing existing consequences and searching for the possible
factors leading to the results. This research is also known as ―ex post facto‖ or ―after
the fact‖ research (i.e. data are collected after all the events of interest occurred). This
is because both the effect and alleged causes have already occurred. In other words,
causal-comparative research is that research in which the independent variable or
variables have already occurred and in which researcher starts with the observation of
the dependent variable or variables. Then, analyze the independent variables in
retrospect for their possible relations to, and effect on the dependent variable or
variables. This research design is selected for the study to examine the relationship
between the dependent variable and the independent variables.
The judgmental sampling along with the convenience sampling (non probability
sampling) was used while selecting the investors who invest in NEPSE. The sample
tends to generalize the entire population. Questionnaires were distributed to the 80
respondents out of which 69 questionnaire were used for the data analysis. The
sample were collected from the brokers office and investment bankers like Sani
securities , Global IME capital, Shakti securities and the random investors .
17
1.5.3.1 Primary data
This study is based on primary sources of data. The survey questionnaire is designed
to generate the primary data. A structured questionnaire was administered to 160
participants including several investors of the different age groups, financial analyst
who invests in the stock, which the study believes possesses the relevant for this study
and those participants were only included for the questionnaire survey who have
sufficient time and are willing to participate (Morse, 1998). The survey has been
basically designed to understand the opinions of respondent to explore the factors
influencing the investment decision making.
The questionnaire was developed based on the findings from the literature review. A
pre-test of a survey questionnaire is necessary to assess its reliability and validity
(Cooper & Schindler (2006). A pre-test was conducted from a random sample of
twelve respondents from different sampled firms. The respondents were encouraged
to make comments on any questions that they thought were ambiguous or unclear. A
final version of the questionnaire is in Appendix 1 of this study.
18
is unaffiliated. Small traders exert abnormal buy pressure after all positive
recommendations, including those of affiliated analysts Malmendier and
Shanthikumar, (2003).
Firm image/ self image coincidence: The information regarding the Product and
Service, reputation of the firm in the Industry, expectation of getting rich quickly,
firm status effects the investors decision making about the company. Investors tries to
make there decision based upon the need fulfillment of him/her by the company the
decision variable may be the firm brand, social responsibility , ethical posture and
product or services. A majority of the shareholders surveyed also want the company
to report on corporate ethics, employee relations and community involvement Epstein,
(1994).
Investment decision: Although, the investors have the knowledge of the market
while making the decision more or less use the psychological and behavioral approach
to make the decision. It is assumed that information structure and the factors in the
market systematically influence individuals‘ investment decisions as well as market
outcomes. Investor market behaviour derives from psychological principles of
decision making to explain why people buy or sell stocks. These factors will focus
upon how investors interpret and act on information to make investment decisions.
Individual investments behavior is concerned with choices about purchases of small
amounts of securities for his or her own account (Nofsinger and Richard, 2002). No
matter how much an investor is well informed, has done research, studied deeply
about the stock before investing, he also behaves irrationally with the fear of loss in
the future.
1.5.5.1 Mean
Mean is the value, which represents the group of values and gives an idea about the
concentration of values in the central part of the distribution. An average gives us a
19
point, which is most representative of the data. It depicts the characteristics of the
whole group. The value of arithmetic mean lies in between the two extreme
observations of the entire data. It is an envoy of the mass homogeneous data. The
value of the AM is obtained by adding together all the items and by dividing this total
by the number of items. The mean is calculated for the descriptive statistics in the
report to study the average value of the variable.
Mathematically,
∑𝑓𝑥
𝑥=
𝑁
Where,
N=no of observations
1.5.5.2 Mode:
The mode is the value that appears most often in a set of data. The mode is found by
collecting and organising the data in order to count the frequency of each result. The
result with the highest occurring number is the mode of the set. The mode of a
discrete probability distribution is the value x at which its probability mass function
takes its maximum value. The mode is then the value where the histogram reaches its
peak.
1.5.5.3 Median:
Median is the middle value in a series of values arranged from smallest to largest. A
median is a series arranged from smallest to largest below and above which there are
an equal number of values or which is the average of two middle values if there is no
one middle value.In statistics and probability theory a median is the number
separating the higher half of a data sample, a population, or a probability distribution,
from the lower half. The median is the 2nd quartile, 5th decile, and 50th percentile.
The median is calculated for the mid value of the variable in the report in descriptive
statistics.
20
MEDIAN = {(n + 1)/2}th item
Where,
n = number of values
∑(𝑥−𝑥 )2
Mathematically, 𝑠 = 𝑛
Where,
s = standard deviation
2
∑ 𝑥−x = Sum of square of difference of data and mean
n = no. of data
1.5.5.6 Correlation
When the relationship is of quantitative nature, the appropriate statistical tool for
discovering and measuring the relationship and expressing it, in a brief formula is
known as correlation. If the values of the variables are directly proportional, the
correlation is said to be positive. On the other hand, if the values of the variables are
inversely proportional, the correlation is said to be negative, but the correlation
21
coefficient always remains within the limit of +1 to -1. When ‗r‘ = +1, there is perfect
positive correlation.
When ‗r‘ lies between 0.7 to 0.999 (or -0.7 to -0.999) there is high degree of positive
or negative correlation.
When ‗r‘ lies between 0.5 and 0.699, there is a moderate degree of correlation.
by Karl Pearson, the simple correlation coefficient (between two variables, say X and
Y) is given by,
𝑁 ∑ 𝑥𝑦 −∑ 𝑥 ∑ 𝑦
𝑟𝑥𝑦 =
𝑁 ∑ 𝑥 2 −(∑ 𝑥)2 𝑁 ∑ 𝑦 2 −(∑ 𝑦)2
Regression analysis is a branch of statistical theory that is widely used in almost all
the scientific disciplines. One of the most frequently used techniques in economics
and business research, to find a relation between two or more variables that are related
casually is regression analysis.
22
Where,
Y= investment decision
a = y-intercept
X2=advocate recommendation
23
CHAPTER II
This study aims to explain factor influencing the investment decision of the investors
in the NEPSE, the organized capital market of Nepal. It employs the various statistical
tools and techniques like descriptive statistics as well as inferential statistics to
analyze the data. For this purpose, required primary data was collected and analyzed
in systematic way so as to derive the empirical findings and evidences on the
investment decision criteria in NEPSE. This chapter includes the presentation and
analysis of these data. To make this study more systematic, this chapter has been
divided into several sections for the analysis of the primary data and to respond the
findings the concluded.
The empirical investigation which was conducted in the form of field Survey of
respondents through structured questionnaire distributed to the samples selected by
using non probabilistic procedures. Questionnaire was developed and distributed to
sample 80 respondents to get their opinions on the investment decision criteria.
However, due to the busy schedule and error only 69 participants actively participated
in the survey with the response rate of 86.25 per cent. The responses received from
these respondents have been arranged, tabulated and analyzed in order to facilitate the
descriptive analysis of the study. This chapter is all about the empirical investigation
during the study. In the survey questionnaire, the respondents were requested to
response in three ways: Yes or No option, ranking option, and likert scale option. In
order to collect the perceived importance of determinants, 5-point Likert scale has
been used, where five being the most important (strongly agree) and one being the
least important (strongly disagree).
The Table- 2.1 displays the respondents profile from those participated in the
questionnaire survey on the strata of gender and the age group. The age group has
been re-coded into ordinal scale as age group below 40 and above 40. Questionnaire
was developed and distributed to 69 sample respondents to get their opinions with
respect to investment decision at NEPSE. Respondents were inquired in advance
about their interest in participating in the survey at the time of collecting data from
24
them. Out of 80 questionnaires distributed to selected samples, only 69 responses
were received representing 86.25 per cent in total. Individually, majority of these
respondents (65.2 per cent) were male and 34.8 percent were female respondents.
Table 2.1
Respondent’s profile
The table 2.1 depicts that the total sample of the study were 69. Out 69 people there
were 45 males and 24 female respondents, with a percentage 65.2 and 34.8
respectively. Similarly there were 32 respondents below 40 age group and 37 of age
group above 40.Since our moderating variable is age group the each class as the
percentage of 46.4percent and 53.6 percent respectively.
The accounting information, advocate recommendation and firm image / self image
coincidence were the independent variables to study the influence in the investor‘s
decision making in the NEPSE. These variables were supposed to be influencing
variables for the investor‘s decision making to purchase the stocks in the NEPSE. The
respondents were asked whether they consider these variables to affect in their
investment decision making. The Yes- No questions were asked to the respondents for
this purpose. It was asked to respondents in order to find there interest on the and
there views on the different questions whether they agrees or not. Respondents select
either Yes/No or do not know while giving opinion about these various factors, the
yes means they think the variable affects the dependant variable else remain
unaffected by the independent variable.
25
Table 2.2
Frequenc Percen
Questions
y t
Do you think accounting information effect on investment decision?
Yes 66 95.7
No 2 2.9
Do not know 1 1.4
Do you think advocate recomendation effect on investment decision?
Yes 52 75.4
No 15 21.7
Do not know 2 2.9
Do you think firm image / self image coincidence effect on investment
decision?
Yes 60 87
No 8 11.6
Do not know 1 1.4
Total 69 100
With reference to the table 2.2 we found that the investors most of the investors thinks
that accounting information , advocate recommendation and firm image / self image
coincidence all effects on the investment decision . Out of total 69 respondents 66
respondents think that accounting information affect on the investment decision,
while two were not in favor of the question and one was clueless. Similarly 52
respondents thinks advocate recommendation affects on investment decision , while
15 of the samples didn‘t agree to question and two of the do not know whether it
affect or not. While 60 respondents thinks firm image / self image affect on the
investment decision and eight do not think it affects on investment decision while the
rest was clueless.
2.3 Opinion for highest rank among the determinants of the investment decision.
The investment in securities is affected by number of factors. For purpose we
considered only accounting information, advocate recommendation and firm image /
self image coincidence as the factors affecting investment decision. The respondents
were asked to rank as most important, important, and least important from among
these three independent variables. Table 2.3 represents the opinions of the investors
among three variables on the order of its importance as rank 1 for most important and
2 and for important and least important respectively.
26
Table 2.3
Opinion for highest rank among the determinants of the investment decision.
The survey questionnaire tried to capture the preferences and views of respondents
whether they consider these three decisions to prefer one more important over others.
The respondents were asked to rank three different determinants on the scale of first
second and third respectively. Majority of the respondents rated the accounting
information as the most important determinants of the investment decision, ranking it
by 66.7percent as first, followed by 23.2percent as firm image / self image
coincidence and 10.1 percent as advocate recommendation. Similarly 47.8percent
ranked firm image /self image coincidence as the second most important factor,
followed by advocate recommendation 29 percent and accounting information
23.2percent. Respondents ranked advocate recommendation with 62.3percent as third
important variable followed by firm image / self image coincidence 27.5percent and
accounting information 10.1 percent respectively.
27
Table 2.4
The table 2.4 depicts the information about the level of investment knowledge posses
in the investment decision. With reference to the table 2.4, it is found that most of the
investors think of possessing the limited knowledge of the investment with
69.6percent followed by the good knowledge of with 21.7percent in a average, about
8.7 percent of the investors things that they do not possess the knowledge of the
investment though are the investors in market. Out of 69 respondents none has
opinions of the excellent knowledge of the investment. Thus from the table it can be
concluded that most of the investors in NEPSE possess the little knowledge of the
investment. The investors have small financial literacy so there investment decision
may be depends not only to the accounting information but to the others people trends
in market although the limited knowledge is not quantified as to what extend the
financial knowledge will be limited one.
28
Table 2.5
Opinions on the priority of investment
The table 2.5 depicts that the investors prefers to invest in the stock of the commercial
bank which has the highest market capitalization in the NEPSE . Out of 100percent ,
73.9 percent give the first priority to the commercial bank followed by the insurance
company with 15.9percent and development bank , hydropower project , fiancé
companies and micro fiancé respectively with the percentage of 15.9, 4.3, 2.9, 1.4,
1.4(percent) respectively. The investors prefer to invest in the commercial bank more
then any others sectors because they tends to be in the much safer side than the
sudden fluctuations in the others sectors like insurance , development bank.
29
Table 2.6
The table 2.6 depicts that a total of 69 responses for each questions was collected. The
mean of the accounting information is 4.30 and median is 4.4 which indicate at
average the investors nearly strongly agreed to the structure questionnaire asked. The
min and max were 2.6 and 4.8 out of total 5. The standard deviation indicates the
variability of the data which shows the difference among the decision among the
investors thus the variability of the information is 0.43 though the average accounts to
4.30. The advocate recommendation has the mean of 4.15 and median of 4.25, with
the min of 2.25 and max of 5. It has the standard deviation of 0.52 i.e. more
fluctuation in the data. Similarly the firm image / self image coincidence has the
average of 4.35 and median of 4.5 , with the min of 3.5 and max of 5 . The variability
of the data was 0.35 which is comparatively small then other. Similarly the
investment decision average the 4.30 and has median of 4.25 with min of 3.5 and max
of 5 with SD of 0.35.Thus it can be concluded that there is less variability of data in
the firm image / self image coincidence and investment decision i.e. all the sample
respondents more or less agree in the same way about the likert scale questions
affecting the investment decision also firm image / self image coincidence has the
highest average which close to strongly agree i.e. most of the respondents things the
same about the firm image/ self image coincidence as the important variable to
investment decision. It is followed by the investment decision, accounting information
and the advocate recommendation with the lowest mean in the advocate
recommendation. Hence the firm image/ self image coincidence has the highest
degree of consistency among all the other independent variables. It also concludes
that most of the investors at Nepal stock exchange concludes that they use firm image/
self image coincidence as the most important variable affecting the investment
decision.
30
Table 2.7
Descriptive Statistics for different age group
The mean of age group below 40 is 4.35 and that of above 40 is 4.26 while the
standard deviation is 0.42 and 0.45 respectively for the accounting information.
Similarly the mean of advocate recommendation on below 40 is 4.13 and 4.18 on
above 40 with SD od 0.46 and 0.56 respectively. The mean of firm image/ self image
coincidence is 4.30 on below 40 and 4.39 above 40 with the standard deviation of
0.38 and 0.31 respectively. The mean of investment decision is 4.32 for age group
below 40 and 4.28 for age group above 40 with the standard deviation of 0.5 and 0.36
respectively.
The accounting information consists the information relating the expected corporate
earnings of the company, the financial statements of the company and its study. The
expected dividend policy of the company and the past performance the company,
through study of company history consist in accounting information. The technical
analysis and fundamental analysis are required to identify true position of the
company. The accounting information also informs about the investment knowledge
the investors possess while making any investment decision. The table 2.8 describes
the opinions about the investment knowledge.
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Table 2.8
Opinion on accounting information as determinant of investment decision
Strongly Disag Satisfact Agr Strongly
Disgree ree ory ee Agree Tot Wt Wt
Statements
al value mean
1 2 3 4 5
I study the financial statements of the company to
1 3 8 29 28 69 287 4.16
make investment.
The expected corporate earnings of firm attract me
0 1 6 31 31 69 299 4.33
for investment
The company policy of dividend payment attracts
0 0 7 35 27 69 296 4.29
me.
I am attracted to the affordable market price in the
0 1 4 29 35 69 305 4.42
secondary market.
I study the past performance of stock for
0 1 5 35 28 69 297 4.30
investment decision.
Grand Mean 4.30
The tabulated responses of the respondent depicts that the grand mean of the
accounting information affecting the investment decision is 4.30. The grand mean
4.30means more than agreed i.e. the respondent are nearly strongly agrees. So, it is
concluded that the accounting information has effect on the investment decision.
Table 2.9
Opinion on advocate recommendation as determinant of investment decision
Strongly Disag Satisfact Agr Strongly
Disgree ree ory ee Agree Tot Wt Wt
Statements
al value mean
1 2 3 4 5
I ask family member opinions in investment
2 5 8 41 13 69 265 3.84
decision.
My friend or coworker recommendations help me
1 0 7 30 31 69 297 4.30
in investment.
The opinions of the firm's majority stockholders
0 1 11 35 22 69 285 4.13
about the company.
The suggestion from the stock brokers for
1 1 3 32 32 69 300 4.35
investment.
Grand Mean 3.32
32
The tabulated responses of the respondent depicts that the grand mean of the advocate
recommendation affecting the investment decision is 3.32. The grand mean 3.33
means more than satisfactory i.e. the respondent are nearly agrees. So, it is concluded
that the advocate recommendation has effect on the investment decision.
The tabulated responses of the respondent depicts that the grand mean of the firm
image / self image coincidence affecting the investment decision is 3.48. The grand
mean 3.48 means more than satisfactory i.e. the respondent are nearly agrees. So, it is
concluded that the firm image / self image coincidence has effect on the investment
decision. The investors have the opinion that the firm image/ self image coincidence
has determining affect on the investment decision at NEPSE.
33
Table 2.11
Opinion on investment decision as determinant of investment decision.
Strongly Disag Satisfact Agr Strongly
Disgree ree ory ee Agree Tot Wt Wt
Statements
al value mean
1 2 3 4 5
I consider accounting information for investment
0 0 11 34 24 69 289 4.19
decision.
I make investment after detailed analysis. 0 1 12 38 18 69 280 4.06
The advocate recommendations help me for
0 0 2 27 40 69 314 4.55
investment decision.
I consider firm image/ self image coincidence for
0 1 2 34 32 69 304 4.41
investment decision.
Grand Mean 3.44
The tabulated response of the respondents towards investment decision gives the
result that the grand mean was 3.44 which indicate all the three concepts investment
decision has positive affect. The respondents strongly agree on this accord.
34
Table 2.11
Variables AI AR FISI ID
AI 1
.243* 1
AR
(0.022)
.496** .391** 1
FISI
(0.001) (0.001)
.234* .209* .311** 1
ID
(0.026) (0.043) (0.005)
*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (1-tailed). **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (1-tailed).
It is observed from the table that there is positive relationship of investment decision
with accounting information the relationship is significant at the 95percent confidence
interval with positive relation of 0.234 which means that the investors uses the
accounting information for their investment decision in the NEPSE. The relationship
between advocate recommendation and investment decision is significant at 95percent
confidence interval with 0.209 positive relationship which means advocate
recommendation is the also the factor to contribute to the investment decision.
Similarly there is positive relationship of firm image / self image coincidence with the
investment decision at 99 percent confidence interval with 0.311 positive
relationships which means that the firm image and self image coincidence drives the
investors to the investment in NEPSE. Out of the three independent the firm image/
self image has the highest degree of positive relationship to the investment decision
followed by the accounting information and advocate recommendation since
accounting information has the highest positive coefficient than advocate
recommendation. Thus all the study variables have the positive relationship with the
investment decision while making any investing activities in the Nepalese stock
market NEPSE. It may be positive or negative higher the relationship between
variable more positive will be the result, lower the relationship between the variable
negative will be the result. It will be helpful for investor from the past relationship of
dependent and independent variable.
35
Table 2.12
Co-relationship on the basis of age group
The sample includes 69 students from the different investors of ktm, at several banks, Broker Company
and capital. All variables are defined as described in chapter I. The table presents correlation analysis
on basis of age group. The accounting information is defined as firm financial statements and price
advocate recommendation as the suggestion and views of professional and firm image/ self image
coincidence as the firm position and growth.
The values in parentheses are p-value.
Panel A : Co-relation analysis for the age group below 40
Variables AI AR FISI ID
1
AI
0.207 1
AR
(0.128)
.575** .421** 1
FISI
(0.001) (0.008)
Variables AI AR FISI ID
1
AI
.294* 1
AR
(0.039)
.479** .351* 1
FISI
(0.001) (0.017)
*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (1-tailed). **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (1-tailed)
From the table it is found that the there is significant relationship with level of
significance of 99 per cent on the independent variable firm image/ self image
coincidence in the age group below 40 but insignificant and positive relationship at
age group above 40. Similarly there is positive and significant relationship at
confidence interval 95% on advocate recommendation at the age group above 40 but
only positive insignificant at below 40. The accounting information has the positive
and insignificant relationship across age group below 40 and above 40.
36
will be helpful for taking decision looking the past data for investor if we analyse
cause and effect trend about the variables.
Table 2.13
Regression analysis
The sample includes 69 students from the different investors of ktm, at several banks, Broker Company
and capital. All variables are defined as described in chapter I. The table presents regression analysis
of the whole respondents. The accounting information is defined as firm financial statements and price
advocate recommendation as the suggestion and views of professional and firm image/ self image
coincidence as the firm position and growth.
The values in parentheses are p-value.
Model A b1 b2 b3 R2 F
3.415** 0.206**
Model 1 0.05 3.615
(0.001) (0.035)
3.8939** 0.111
Model 2 0.012 1.828
(0.001) (0.181)
3.003** 0.298
Model 3 0.044 3.405
(0.001) (0.014)
*. Regression is significant at the 0.05 level (1-tailed). **. Regression is significant at the 0.01 level (1-tailed
37
2.13 Independent sample t-test
The analysis of independent sample t-test has been carried out to compare the mean
differences of the variables under study, among the moderating variable age group i.e.
below 40 and above 40. The p-value approach is used for mean difference, where p-
value greater than 0.05 and 0.01 the level of significance will be high. The mean
difference analysis is done to consider whether the variable result is similar or
dissimilar.
Table 2.14
The table depicts that the mean values of accounting information are 4.350 and 4.260
for age group below 40 and above 40 respectively with the standard deviation of
0.416 and 0.452. The mean difference is thus 0.905 but is insignificant, thus there is
no significant difference across the age group across the variable. Similarly the mean
values of advocate recommendation are 4.133 and 4.176 respectively with SD of
0.462 on age group below 40 and 0.565 on above 40. The mean difference is 0.905
with p value of 0.730 i.e. insignificant thus there is no significant difference across the
age group across the variable. Similarly the mean values are 4.287 and 4.392 across
male and female in firm image self image coincidence with the mean difference of
0.950 and the result is insignificant, thus there is no significant difference across the
age group across the variable. In the same way the mean values are 4.320 and 4.284
between age group below 40 and above 40 at investment decision and the result is
38
insignificant with mean difference of 0.365 thus the result no significant differences
across the age group in the variable.
39
ii) There is positive relationship between advocate recommendation and
investment decision and the relationship is significant at 99percent
confidence interval , thus the advocate recommendation play the
significant role for the investors decision making at Nepse.
vi) There is positive but insignificant impact of firm image/ self image
coincidence to the investment decision thus, the firm image/ self image
coincidence has effect to investment decision but the investor shadow this
portion due to other several factors affecting the investment decision.
vii) The study shows that there is no significant difference on the age group
below 40 and above 40, since the P-value is greater than 0.05 in each
independent variable and dependant variable.
In the review of literature of this study, there were discussed about the findings of the
various authors. The result of this study is also connected with the findings of
different authors. The significance of findings of our study with the previous findings
of different authors is described below.
40
i) The study concludes that the accounting information say corporate
earnings and firm market price has more importance on the investment
decision making than other variables like firm image of getting rich quick
followed by advocate and professional recommendations. Al Tamimi
(2005)
ii) The study concludes that the age group of the respondents has the
difference on the investment decision, although Fares et.al concludes for
negative effect of advocate recommendation this study found the positive
but insignificant effect.
iii) The study concludes that there is a certain degree of co-relation of the
independent variable to the investment decision and the relation is of
highly significant as concluded by Jagongo and Mutswenje(2014).
41
CHAPTER III
3.1 Conclusion
The purpose the study was to clear the picture and understand the behavioral aspects
of investment decision in Nepalese stock market NEPSE. It was believed that the
investors although they are rational investors when were supposed to make
investment decision are irrational one. The findings suggested that the investors take
the behavioral finance outcomes for their decision making. Behavioral finance is
defined by Shefrin, (2000) as a rapidly growing area that deals with the influence of
psychology on the behavior of financial practitioners finance applications on their
decision making like the theory of mental accounting. The findings suggested that the
investors firstly want to make the investment on the basis of accounting information
by the through study of the firm financial statements, followed by firm image / self
image coincidence and advocate recommendation. The investors always want to
invest in securities where most of other investors have confidence. The research
concludes that the most of the investors have the confidence on commercial banks to
purchase the stock since has the highest capitalization in the market. The investment
decision is the functions of the many independent variables thus only the three
variables couldn‘t give the clear picture about the investment decision making
patterns. The tangible and intangible all the factors need to be studied for this purpose.
investors need to understand before speculating the large amount in the NEPSE/ stock
market.
42
i. Investors can understand their general buying habits and there investment
pattern in the NEPSE such that they can understand there loopholes.
ii. A individual investors can use the report to know where the most of
investors are heading and what attracts them.
The conclusion from the report is useful for the marketers like companies, brokers,
dealers etc.
i. The report can be used by the marketers to know in which sector the most of
investors are attracted and develop the strategy to have maximum gain.
ii. The report is the valuable source of information about investors decision
criteria in the stock market.
i. This study was small, as the sizes of the respondents were small. When
conducting research on similar topic a large sample should be taken into
considerations so that more reliable result can be attended.
ii. Apart from accounting information, advocate recommendation and firm
image/ self image coincidence other factors also have impact on the
investment decision making. Hence, study should be make proper choice
of independent variable.
iii. The study was conducted within a certain time-frame; a broader study
conducted under a longer period of time would give more realistic results.
43
References
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Risk Return Preferences of individual investos,” Journal of Financial and
Quantitative Analysis, 377-389.
Baker, M & Wurgler, J 2006, Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock
Returns, Journal of Finance
Barber, BM & Odean, T ,(2000), All that Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News
on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors, Oxford Journals.
Barberis, N., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. (1998). A Model of Investor Sentiment.
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Appendix I
A questionnaire on
“Factors Influencing Investment Decision Making: A Study of
Investor’s at NEPSE.”
Dear Sir/Madam
I am a student of BBA at People’s Campus, Paknajol. You are kindly requested to cooperate by filling
up the questionnaire. Your cooperation is expected to add academic value. The information provided
will be kept quite confidential and used at aggregate level only. Looking forward for your kind and
generous cooperation.
Regards,
Pradeep Phuyal
Seventh semester student
People’s Campus
PART A :GENERAL BACKGROUND
1. Gender Male Female
2. Age Group Below 40 Above 40
Part B : Basic information
Directions: (Tick any one)
4. Do you think accounting information effect on the investment decision?
a) Yes b) No c) Do not know
5. Do you think advocate recommendation effect on the investment
decision?
a) Yes b) No c) Do not know
6. Do you think firm image/ self image coincidence effect on the investment
decision?
a) Yes b) No c) Do not know
7. How would you describe your knowledge of investments?
a) None b) Limited c) Good d) Excellent
8. Which of the following factors are most important for the investment
decision? (Please rank 1 for the most important, 2 for the 2nd most important
and so on.)
a) Accounting information
b) Advocate recommendation
c) Firm image/ self image coincidence
9. Which is your priority sector for investment in NEPSE?
a)Commercial bank b) Development bank c) Finance Companies
d) Hydropower project e Micro finance e) InsuranceCompanies
f) Others
PART C:
Directions: Please indicate your level of agreement or disagreement with end of each of
these statements. (Tick any one)