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For what reasons are we-Ethiopians hungry and poor? It has been said time
and again that 85% of the Ethiopian population or 50 Million Ethiopians are
engaged in agriculture or related areas. If this much population is
productive, why are we starving and living in poverty? We have to deeply
consider these two facts below and find out the truth.
1. 50Million Ethiopians are engaged in agriculture
2. Ethiopians are forever hungry
These two facts are mutually exclusive, the first contradicts the second and
vice versa.
If we proceed with this understanding, we find out the true picture and
realize that 85% or 50 Million Ethiopian have settled on farmsteads, have
land under their control or they claim to be farmers but they are actually not
productive farmers. They have not engaged themselves in proper farming
modes to be productive. Hence we find out that they are not productive
farmers from their output. An Ethiopian farmer is an illusion, it exists only in
name but practically it does not.
Continuing further with the discussion, let us discuss in detail what makes a
farmer really productive. A Farmer needs the following resources and
conditions to be productive.
1. Solar Energy
2. Labour
3. Improved selected Seed
4. Land
5. Democratic Government
6. Water
A productive farmer can only thrive when at least these six conditions are
melted and fused together in an intelligent way. If one or more of these
conditions are failing, missing or not sufficiently available, a productive
farmer can not be created.
Of course, unless
1. Productive Prime Minister
2. Productive Minister of Infrastructure
3. Productive Minister of Rural Development
4. Productive Minister of Water Resources
5. Productive Consultants
6. Productive Contractors etc are created in our Country, we can not
eradicate hunger and poverty. The creation of productive farmer alone
does not suffice.
My study concentrates primarily among the six pre -conditions mentioned
above on how we can provide adequate water to the farmer.
The present government has spent tremendous effort to make the farmers
productive through the so -called Extension Programs. This has been tried for
the past 10 years but it did not eradicate starvation even though a huge
amount of budget and manpower had been allocated. The main weakness
and the prime reason why the Extension programs did not succeed is only
because they are based on rain fed agriculture. Weather is the most difficult
phenomenon to predict. Hoping to feed 100 Million Ethiopians by the year
2015 by relying solely on rain fed agriculture is sheer madness. Even NASA
could not predict accurately the weather having the most advanced
technology at its disposal. Emperor Haileselassie in his time has commented
that the donkey’s ear predicts weather better than the forecast of
meteorologists. Had we shouted “Democratic Government for the Tiller” and
“Water for the Tiller” together with the “Land to the Tiller” slogan we could
have obtained a productive farmer today.
Therefore:
1. If we can harvest 1 Billion m³ of water and deploy 100,000 jobless
young men to agriculture , it would be possible to feed 5 Million People
from the harvest they produce.
2. If we can provide 2 Billion m³ of water, it is possible to feed about 10
Million Ethiopians by mobilizing 200,000 young farmers.
3. If we can secure the provision of 25 Billion m³, 125 Million Ethiopians
can be fed by mobilizing 3 Million farming households.
On the other hand, when the question of the Blue Nile is raised, the issue of
Egypt also appears at the scene. We all are gripped with the fear that if we
start utilizing the waters of the Blue Nile, Egypt will declare war on us
impromptu. This apprehension is especially felt strongly by the educated
circle.
Our knowledge about Egypt and the Nile is greatly distorted. Our popular cry
is only about the Blue Nile being the traitor. We complain loudly that the
Blue Nile eroded and swept our precious fertile land to deposit it in Egypt and
made us poor and destitute. The Ethiopians do not realize that this sediment
transported by the Blue Nile is the source of grave problems for the Sudanese
and the Egyptians. The Egyptians now aware of the problems created by this
transported sediment are now demanding us to retain our sediments from
being carried by the Blue Nile. Lake Nasser is being filled with sediment from
time to time and they are now in trouble because the water holding capacity
of the lake is being seriously diminished.
Our second misconception is that most of us think that if we dam the Blue
Nile at Lake Tana, we can control its flow. The amount of water that enters
Lake Tana does not exceed 10% of the total discharge volume of the Blue Nile.
We can only hold the flow of the Gilgel Abay but otherwise we can not do so
for the other tributaries.
The rivers that make the Blue Nile Blue Nile are:
From Gojjam Region: From Shoa Region
1. River Gilgel Abay 6. River Welka
2. River Abaya 7. River Shenkora
3. River Beles 8. River Jemma
4. River Bir 9. River Mugher
Another area where we should develop our knowledge about the issue at hand
is about the treaties which our previous leaders concluded about the Blue Nile.
We should know and understand about the treaty which Emperor Menelik
signed with the British in 1902 E.C. which allegedly states that before Ethiopia
can use even a single pot of water from the Blue Nile, she will inform or secure
the consent of the British and the Sudanese governments. Again, the Amharic
and English copies of the treaty do not conform to each other. It looks like
another Wuchale Treaty.
The stand of the present EPRDF government in every issue of the Blue Nile is
that the International Laws govern the issues. What do these laws say? For that
matter, is there even an International Law? Do the laws permit the Egyptians to
sell the waters of the Blue Nile to others while we perish in hunger or do they
facilitate for the equitable joint usage of the waters? Or do they oblige them to
make financial compensation for the water they use? In my opinion, the one
with superior power drafts the laws and forces us to put them in practice. We
can say the laws that are beneficial to us are the International laws and get
them approved by our Parliament. Then, we can do whatever we want and
assert our rights by building a strong and indomitable defense force. We have
no choice. It is much preferable to commit a hero’s death in the battlefield
rather than perish by hunger.
As a matter of fact, the waters of the Nile are adequate enough let alone for the
needs of Egypt, the Sudan and Ethiopia but also for the needs of other countries
in the region. We have waited till now without cooperating with each other
due to lack of adequate knowledge. If Emperor Haileselassie had consented to
the President Nasser’s request to have a dam built at Lake Tana, Lake Nasser
would have not been built. The Egyptians have the following five problems just
because Lake Nasser is built at an elevation of 500 metres in their very land.
If the Blue Nile is dammed here in Ethiopia, at least 10 out of the 15 Billion m³
of water, which the Egyptians are now losing from Lake Nasser through
evaporation , could be saved. This much water would be adequate to eradicate
hunger from Ethiopia and make us able to export food to Egypt. This way, we
can atleast get some revenue from part of the 4 Billion Dollars which the
Egyptians spend to import food.
In short, if Ethiopia dams the Blue Nile in her territory, the Sudanese and the
Egyptians will get more benefits above all other concerned countries. Up to
now, because we have not been cooperating with each other, we are losing the
benefits we can salvage. My dream and vision is to see this cooperation thrive
and the Sudan , Egypt and Ethiopia get unified and as in the new nomenclature
we are now using here, Egypt become Region One; the Sudan, Region Two;
Ethiopia, Region Three; Somalia, Region Four; Kenya and Uganda , Region Five
etc. If we get unified, the benefits derived will be for all of us. The stand which
Your Excellency the Prime Minister took on NEPAD and the African Union is
highly commendable. The Americans have perpetrated incalculable damage on
Ethiopia when they concluded in their Study of the Blue Nile that Ethiopia has
little potential to use the waters of the Blue Nile for irrigation. They deprived
us of a ground to assert our rights of using the waters of the Blue Nile. Given
the fact that we have abundant fertile farm land in Eastern Ethiopia that can be
cultivated through Irrigation, how could the Americans conclude in their
study that Ethiopia does not have adequate land to be cultivated through
irrigation? We have to demand compensations for their blunder. Since they
are rich and generous, they will pay the compensations.
I went through all these points just to stress the fact that if we really want to be
free from poverty and starvation, we have to develop our knowledge of the
Blue Nile.
Another reason that hunger and poverty is widespread in our Country is due
to the reason that we Ethiopians do not cooperate. One citizen does not help
another fellow citizen. Everybody prefers to do the race all by himself. The
Tigrean, the Oromo, the Afar, the Amhara, the Guraghe, the Sidama if they
strive to grow alone by themselves, there will be a better chance to be
productive. In principle, this idea is not bad. However, we can not resolve all
our problems individually. Cooperation, working together and team work can
make us achieve still better results. It is for this reason that I urge you that let
we all Ethiopians cooperate and work together and eradicate hunger.
To ensure the success of these schemes, I would like to indicate that there are
three huge tasks that can be accomplished only by H.E. the Prime Minister.
1. Like you are the commander-in-chief of our Military Forces, please be
the overall supervisor of this project and devote four working hours
per month to evaluate the monthly progress of the project, identify
clearly the problems faced, offer solutions and issue firm orders to
make all Ethiopians cooperate and work together.
When six years ago, a magazine that is issued in the United States
wrote, “All the best and the brightest Ethiopians are out of the
country”, H.E. Prime Minister Melles responded, “please stop your joke.
Come and test tho se of us who live in the Home Land”. Now using this
strong conviction of yours, please ascertain whether these three
proposals are fantasies or not by having them critically examined by
Ethiopian consultants, farmers and economists and I humbly request
you to take a decision either to implement or reject them. Unless you
are convinced of the merits of the Project, it should at no case be
started and it can not be started. In a country in East Africa
neighboring Eritrea, we are faced with a big war called hunger. Let us
campaign with the leadership of H.E. our Prime Minister to vanquish
this war.
3. The third difficult task which awaits H.E. our Prime Minister is to
secure the necessary amount of finance that this project demands from
the Ethiopian people and government, from monetary organizations
like the IMF and the World Bank, from donor organizations and
philanthropists etc . In my crude preliminary estimate, to fully
implement these three schemes, it would require about 11 Billion Birr
and 12 years of working time. This estimate includes only the finance
needed to transport the water from one region to another and deliver it
at the farmland. It does not include the huge investment that the
Construction of 2500MW capacity hydropower plants, the preparation
of the farmlands and the accompanying human settlement demand.
To put it in a nutshell, the tasks of H.E. the Prime Minister will be:
1. To be the Project Manager of the organization that will be setup to
eradicate hunger from Ethiopia by devoting four working hours per
month and command the Project
2. To manage the negotiations that are likely to arise due to the
implementation of this project in an orderly fashion so that Ethiopia
gets its own deserved water share. The difficult task that has to be
borne by our Prime Minister will be convincing the Egyptians that it
is also to their advantage if they work together with us with affection
and sense of belongingness as their Holy Book the Koran orders them
rather than regarding Ethiopians as wild or devilish creatures.
3. To secure by any means the financial expenditure needed to
implement this project.
H.E. the Prime Minister, if you tackle and resolve these three tasks through
diplomatic skills, clairvoyance and patience, we the Ethiopian people as a
whole can complete the whole construction and agricultural works in 12
years to produce 250 Million quintals of cereal every year and eradicate
hunger once and for all from our country and reduce poverty substantially.
Through the construction work experience which about 100,000 young
Ethiopians will accrue in the implementation of these projects in these 12
years, we will generate an indomitable strong task force that is capable of
transforming the whole of our country and Africa.
SUMMARY
My friends and I were in jubilant mood when twelve years ago, the EPRDF
troops brought Addis Ababa under their control. We have considered it as
being reborn again. If we are asked offer the reason for it, it is because the
Dergue regime has stripped us from our basic human rights of freedom of
thinking, freedom of speech, freedom of writing and freedom of movement.
We believed on that very day, we will reclaim back these basic human rights.
I have been able to conceive and propose this project because the Hydrology
Department of the Ministry of Water Resources made available to me freely a
30 years flow record of the various rivers mentioned in this proposal and the
Ethiopian Mapping Authority furnished me with 1:50,000 scale topographic
maps of the regions free of charge. Had the present Government not allowed
information like in these two sets of documents to be circulated without
restriction, I would not have conceived this project at all even in my dreams.
At the moment, the idea of Free Press, Free thinking and Free Spirit is
flourishing and since the era we are now living is termed as “The Age of
Information”, I invite every Ethiopian to read this paper thoroughly in a
critical way and discuss the pros and cons of my proposal.
I have presented to you these schemes with the strong conviction that they
will yield concrete results in the efforts which our Government is exerting to
reduce the abject poverty we are in and alleviate the hunger and diseases
prevalent in our country.
I conclude my discussion by furnishing the following opinions.
“Ethiopia shall soon stretch out her hands unto God.” (Psalms 68:31)
Ethiopians are begging God stretching out their arms to the sky to drop them
manna. But God has forgotten them. He did not think of them and did not
rescue them. They are perishing in large numbers from hunger, poverty and
ailments. Y.E the prime minister, at this moment, 15 Million Ethiopians are
crying in tears, “Melles, please save us. We are dying.” Will H.E. Prime
Minister Melles save them from their peril? Let all of us without any
reservation stand side by side with him to help him respond positively to this
cry for help.