Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1. Introduction
1.1 Operations Management:
Meaning / Definition: Operations Management is a systematic approach to address all the
issues pertaining to the transformation process that converts some inputs into outputs that are
useful and could fetch revenue to the organization.
A manufacturing firm essentially engages in converting several inputs into products that are
useful for individuals and organizations. On the other hand, a service organization addresses
the requirements of its customers using a service delivery system and provides the required
services, both manufacturing and service organizations for operations systems. An operations
system is defined as one in which several activities are performed to transform a set of inputs
into a useful output using a transformation process. This inputs and outputs can be physical
things, such as, materials and / or, informational and experiential things, viewed in this
manner it can be said that both the manufacturing systems and service systems are operations
systems and the management of these two operations systems is called operation
management.
1.2 Different Aspects of Operations Management
1. For successful operations management focus should be on developing a set of tools and
techniques to analyses problems faced within an operations system.
2. The second aspect of operations management is to address the problem that an
organization faces. The problems include deciding how to re – route jobs issue when a
machine breaks down on a shop floor, or how to handle a surge in demand in a service
system, decisions such as, where to locate the plant, what capacity to build in the system and
what types of products and services need to be offended to the customers, operations
management provides alternative methodologies to address such wide ranging issues in an
organization.
3. Focus on the operations management discipline is to address the various aspects of design
in the transformation process as well as planning and control of operations.
4. Performance evaluation methods and systems should be developed so that operations
management can ensure that through careful planning and control, the organization is able to
keep cost to the minimum and obtain revenue in excess of costs.
Similarities:
1. Both are concerned about quality, productivity and timely response to its customers.
2. Both must make choices about capacity, location, and layout.
3. Both have supplies to deal with.
4. Both have to plan operations schedules & resources.
5. Both must balance capacity with demand.
6. Both have to make an estimate of demand.
Strategic options
for sustaining
competitive Generic competitive
advantage priorities, quality,
cost, delivery,
flexibility
1. Product Portfolio:
One of the most important strategic choices or options that an organization can make is with
respect to its product portfolio. Product portfolio pertains to decisions on what are the
products that the organization wants to produce, the number of variations in each product line
and the extent of customization that it can offer to its customers.
2. Process:
Process design provides another option to translate strategic objective to operations by the
appropriate choice of processes. These types of flow happen on account of process choices:
continuous streamlined flow, intermittent or batch flow and jumbled flow.
3. Technology:
Organizations making a strategic choice /option to operate in the manufacture of mid-volume,
mid variety products can utilize new technology such as, flexible manufacturing system and
computer integrated manufacturing to improved productivity, manufacturing technology can
provide unique advantage to firms in providing better products and services to customers.
4. Capacity:
Capacity is defined as the maximum number of units of goods that can be produced per unit
time in case of manufacturing system and the maximum number of service offerings that can
be made per unit time in the case of a service system. Capacity decisions in operations
directly and significantly influence. The cost of goods and services offered in three ways –
1. Accrued Cost advantage due to economics of scale.
2. Cost advantage from accounting principles pertaining to marginal cost and contribution.
3. Benefits arising from large capacity investment.
5. Break Even Analysis:
Break Even point is the point where total cost is just equal to total sales or revenue. In other
words, we can say that the point where to total cost line intersects the total sales line or, the
total sales line intersects the total cost line in a Break Even chart is called Break Even Point.
At BEP, the business organizations neither earn any profit, nor incur or sustain any loss. It is
the 'no profit ' 'no loss 'position of the organization. So, in order to earn profit sales must be
greater than total cost of sale in case of manufacturing system and total cost of offerings in
case of service system. At Break Even Point, total contribution margin is able to cover total
fixed cost invested in the system. BEP can be expressed in terms of units or /and in terms of
tk on in any currency.
TFC
BEP (Unit) = Unit contribution Margin
TFC ×Unit selling price
BEP (Unit) = Unit contribution Margin
OR,
TFC
BEP (Unit) = C . M Ratio
BEP can be presented graphically which is known Break even chart.
Example :
Sales 5000 units @tk 20 per unit tk 100,000
Variable cost @tk 10 per unit tk 50,000
Total fixed cost (TFC) tk 40,000
Solution:
TFC UC=S-VC
BEP (Unit) = Unit contribution Margin
=20-10
40,000
= 10 = tk 10
= 4,000 units.
Or,
TFC C/M Ratio
BEP (Unit) = C . M Ratio C.M
40,000 = Sale × 100
¿
50 % 10
= 20 ×100
=tk 80,000
=50%
1. Concept generation:
The first stage in a product development cycle is concept generation. New products
and services are the outcome of the need to close the gap that exists in the market with
respect to the consumer need. This activity requires good innovation skills to develop
unique products and services. Feasibility study should be conducted such as
technology feasibility, marketing feasibility, cost feasibility, feasibility of customer’s
acceptance etc. feasibility is not strictly evaluated at this stage in a detailed fashion,
and roller a first cut expert judgment may be considered valuable to fix some of the
assumption and number behind the concept.
2. Design:
The second step/ stage of product development is to draw the design of the product.
During this stage, details specifications are first drawn about the product which is
known as preliminary design. Design may be about shapes, sizes, weights, materials
surface finishing etc. Process planning activities provides the details of the product
bring designed. Product specifications and the process planning decision are required
for cost estimation of the proposed design of the process.
3. Development:
The third step/ stage of product development process is the physical development of
the product. During this stage, the details arrive at on the drawing board are translated
into reality. Usually, a prototype is built for extensive testing and fire- turning of
design specification. Moreover, detailed manufacturing specifications, specific
method of manufacture, assembly and testing are established during this stage. A few
pieces of product are manufacturing for testing in this phase.
4. Production:
The last stage of product development process pertains to the transfer of known how
to Production personnel and establishing the system for volume production. The
efficiency and effectiveness of the manufacturing process, dedicated equipment and
assured source of supply are established and addressed in a detailed fashion in this last
stage of product development process.
Process Design
or
Design of Process
4.1 Meaning / Definition:
Process design essentially means the various choice that are made with respect
of the flow of ports in a manufacturing system . process design is a planning
process for each and every component manufactured that determines the
member of steps of involved in manufacturing, the number and type of steps
used and the time spent in each of these steps. It is more commonly refused to
as process. planning which is technical and is mainly a production engineering
activity.
At a higher level the design of process indicates how the manufacturing
resources are organized in the operation system so that flow pattern are
optimized and appropriate operation management tools can be used of
effectively control the overall operation.
4.2 Determinants of process characteristics in operations
it is important to an operation manager to know what characteristic influence
the choice of attractive process. Generally three important aspects have a
significant influence in the process which are stated below
1. volume
2. variety
3. Flow
1. volume:
Volume indicates average quantity of the products produced in a manufacturing
system. Volume may differs from one manufacturing industry to one have
depending on size of the product nature of the product durability of the product
used of consumption of product. Some industry may have the production value
of first one, of its may have high volume of production necessiting continuous
production. In between these two extremes these may have made volume
manufacture who may cater to their customs with several alternatives version
of products when the volume of production is very high of the firm. Is engaged
in the manufacture of few varieties of product
2. Variety:
Variety refers to the member of alternative products and variants of each
product that are produced in a manufacturing system. A company may other
many varieties of a certain type of product Increase in the variety of product
offering is quickly to introduce variety of process in the system. Alternative
production resource materiel skills of worker, number of stage of production.
may make the process complex and may call for better operation management
practices.
3. Flow:
Irrespective of the nature of activities involved all manufacturing systems
require infect maintains with which the process began , the materials undergo a
conversion process in order to be transformed use to a useful product for
customers. flow indicates the nature instantly of this phenomenon and provides
an understanding of how the components and materials in an operation
system .get transformed from the raw material stage. to the famished goods
stage. Knowledge of flow products vital clean to the operation manages about
production planning and control issues of the production process. It also
provides useful information about the complicities of operation management in
and operating system.
Three types of flow can be indentified continuous inter mitten and jumbled.
4.3:Relationship between volume and verity in operations system:
In general volume and Varity seem to have an inverse relationship. which the
volume of production is very high. it is highly likely that firm is engage in the
manufacture of new varieties of production. on the contrary if the firm caters
wide ranging set of products and service then the production volume of each of
these
variation is likely to be very. the relationship between volume and variety in
operation systems is show in the forming diagram.
High High
Volume Variety
Project
Mass
Organization
Production
Walton
Petro Chemists
Sony
Automobiles Mid Volume
Mid Variety
Motor Manufactiong
Pharmaceutical
Logs and Chips of wood Crushing of logs & chips Processing of the wood
Stored
Preparatory
Pulp Making
Drying the wood pulp Refining the wood pulp Cleaning and bleaching
Paper Making
Both excessive and inadequate inventories are the two danger pointswhich are not
disable.
Two avoid a situation of over-investment and under investment in inventories.
To ensure control of investment in inventories and to keep it at an optimum level.
To ensure continuous supply of raw materials to facilitate uninterrupted production.
To maintain sufficient stock of raw materials in periods of short supply and anticipate
price changes.
To maintain sufficient finished gods inventory for smooth sales operation and
efficient customer service.
To minimize the carrying cost and time.
2. Ordering Cost:
Ordering cost are the costs of ordering cost receiving inventory. They are the costs
that very which the actual placement of an order. Ordering costs …fgfg… additional
cost incurred on purchase, shipping cost, requisition cost inspection of goods or
arrival moving the goods to temporary storage, transportation cost, normal cost of
inventory etc.
¿ 2500 units
5. Maximum Level or Maximum Stock
The level of inventory or stock that never exceeds is called maximum level or
maximum stock. Maximum quantity, units or limit of inventory at which the carrying
cost is reasonable is called maximum level.
Maximum Level=( Reorder Level+ Reorder Quantity )−( Minim umConsumption × Minimum delivery time)
¿ ( 4,800+ 2,000 )−(500× 2)
¿ 6,800−1,000
¿ 5,800 kgs
(iii) Minimum Level:
Weekly production varies from 175 units to 225 units averaging 200 units.
Calculate
(i) Minimum Stock of- A
(ii) Maximum Stock of- B
(iii) Re-order Level of- C
Solution:
2 NO
(a) EOQ=
√
Where,
C
√
¿
0.90
¿ √ 5,52,222.22
¿ 74311655
¿ 743 units
(b)
(i) Minimum Stock of A:
¿ Reorder Level−¿
¿ 8000−(2000 ×2)
¿ 8000−4000
¿ 4000 kg
***Note: Normal Usage of A:
¿ Average Weekly Production ×Usage Permit
¿ 200 ×10
¿ 2000 kg .
(ii) Maximum Stock of B:
¿ ( Reorder Level+ Reorder Quantity )−¿
¿ ( 4700+5000 )−(1050 × 3)
¿ 9700−3150
¿ 6500 kg
(iii) Re-Order Level of C:
¿ MaximumUsage × Maimum Delivery Period
¿ 1350 ×4
¿ 5400 kg
*** Note: Maximum Usage of C:
¿ Maxi ,u ,Weekly Productio × Usage Per Unite
¿ 225 ×6
¿ 1350 kg
Project Management
Project Meaning definition :
In simple works, a project in an idea or I am that is intended to be carried out.
The dictionary meaning of a project is that it is a scheme design a project of something intended or
devised to be achieved.
For definitions of projects are stated below :
(1) “ A Project typically has a diction mission that in designed to achieve and clear termination
point, the achievement of the mission.
---------- Newman
(2) “ Project is the whole complex of activities involved is using resources to gain benefits “
----- gillinger.
In fine, a project can be define as a scientifically involved work plan devised to achieve a
specific objective within a specified period of time.
Basic Features of a Project:
Projects may differ in their size, nature objectives, time duration and complexity, but they have the
following three basic features :
i) A course of action
ii) Specific objectives
iii) Definite time perspective .
Every project must have a starting point, as end point with specific objectives.
Types of project :
Different authorities have classified projects differently. Following are the major classifications of
project;
(1) Quantifiable and non –Quantifiable projects
(2) Sectoral projects
(3) Techno- Economic Projects
(4) Proposed projects & ongoing or executed projects.
(5) Mutually exclusive project and independent single project
(6) Contingent project
(i) Quantifiable and non –Quantifiable projects : Projects for which a reasonable
quantities assessment of benefits can be made are called quantifiable projects. Project
concerned with industrial development own generation, mineral development etc. fall in
this category. On the contrary, non quantifiable projects are those in which a plausible
quantitative assessment can not be made . Projects involving health education and defense
are the examples of non –Quantifiable projects.
(ii) Sectoral Projects : according to this classifications a project may fool is any one the
following sectorals:
(i) Agriculture & Allied sector
(ii) Industry and mining sector
(iii) Irrigation & Power Sector
(iv) Transport and communication sectors
(v) Social service Sectors
A Project for which project proposal has been made or given and the project which is yet to be
formulated and to be executed, is termed as proposed project. On the contrary, the project which is
formulated and already implemented is called executed projects.
(5) Mutually exclusive projects and independent single Project:
When acceptance of one project form among alternative projects reject others projects the projects are
termed as mutually exclusive projects. Incase of mutually excusive projects more than one projects
are prepared the best and most profitable project is accepted and other projects are rejected .
(6) Contingent Project:
Contingent project is one the formulation and implementation of which depends on the
implementation of the main project. A College hostel is a contingent project while the stablemen of
the college is the main or profited project.
Project Process / Steps in Project
Projects are prepared or formulated through some processor or steps each of which is very much
important . Process of Project or steps involved in formulation of projects are slated bellows:
1. Project Planning
2. Project formulation
3. Project Analysis/Evaluation / Appraisal
4. Project selection from among alternatives
5. Project financing
6. Project implementation
7. Project reviewing / Monitoring
Project Planning :
In the process of preparing a project, on entrepreneur has to drank animus a plan as to what he or she
intends to do or proposes to take up. Planning is deciding in advance what is to be done in future. It is
a projected course of with. So, the entrepreneur/entreprenenous with think in advance as to what kind
of business or project he/they desire(s) to established or short. Project plant is a kind of guide frost or
course of action what the entrepreneur hopes to achieve and how he is going to achieve it. Project
planning is like a kind of making big road map to reach the destination (that is a project) determined
by the entrepreneur. Thus the project planning can best be defined as with involved coursed of action
devised to achieve the specific objective written a specified period of time.
* Idea Generation and project identification.
While Project planning, the entrepreneur needs to generate a few ideas about the possible projects
he/she can undertake. Such ideas can be annotated form various internal and external resource which
are stated below:
i) Knowledge of potential customer needs
ii) Watering emerging trends in demands for certain projects.
iii) Scope for producing substitute products
iv) succeeds proines for known entrepreneurs friends or relations.
v) Working visits to trade fares and exhibitions displaying new products and session.
vi) Meeting with the Government agencies .
vii) Ideas from knowledgeable persons
viii) Knowledge about the Government policy, conseseion made incentives.
These ideas may help the entrepreneur to take up a suitable course of action and project
indent potation.
2. Project formulation :
Project Planning process helps entrepreneur in idea generation and project identification the second
process is project formulation which starts after the probable projects are identified. In this step
project is formulated which is generally known as project plan project profile or project report.
Project Report : Project report is a written statement of project plan. It serves like a big road map to
reach the destination determined by the entrepreneur. A project report can best be defined as a with
involved course of action devised to achieve the steadied objective writhes a specified period of time.
A project report is said to be an operating document.
Significance / Importance of Project Reports:
The preparation / formulation of project is of great significance/ importance as it serves the two most
essentional functions
3. Markets potential
* Market strategy
* After Sales services
* Transportation
Project Appraisal Analysis Evaluation:
Simply speaking, Project appraisal analysis or evolution means assessment of a project. This appraisal
is applicable for both proposal projects and executed project. In case of proposal project, Project
appraisal is called ex-anti analysis and in own decision, Project appraisal is related to proposed
projects.
Project appraisal is the cost and benefit analysis of different aspects of proposed project with an
objective to adjudge its viability. A project involved employment of capital or resources and in
entrepreneur needs to appraise various alternative project before selecting and allocating resources to
the best project selected from among the alterative projects. For the appraisal of a project its
economic, financial, technical market managerial social aspects are analyzed for judging its
profitability, viability and feasibility. Financed institutions conduct project appraisal to causes into
credit worthiness before a financial institution is a process whereby a leading financial institution
makes an in independent and objective assessment of the various aspect of an investment proposition
for arriving at a financial decision.
Opinion Pulling method :
In this method, opinions of the ultimate customers is estimated with the help of either completed
survey of all customers or sample survey.
a) Complete enumeration survey :
b) Sample survey :
c) Sales experience method:
d) Vicarious Method:
e) Life cycle segmentation analysis method.
Phases of Project Management :
Managing any Project involved 4(four) key phases which are :
i) Conceptual phase.
ii) Planning phase.
iii) Implementation and control phase.
iv) Feed back or post project appraisal.
with the above data in the example, the following diagram can be drawn up:
8 days 4
10 days B 12 days
(1) A (2) 7 days D E
C 9 days
Fig: PERT Networking 3 5
Advantages of PERT :
1. It determines the expected time required for completing each activity.
2. It helps to complete the project within a given time period .
3. It helps managements to handle uncertain involved in the project and this , reduce the risk element
in the project.
4. It enable management to make objection allocation of limited resources.
5. It process for the right action at the right point at the right time in the organization.
(2) Critical Path Method ( CPM) :
The critical path Method ( CPM) was first developed is USA by E1. Dupont Nemours & Co. in 1956
for doing periodic overhunting and amitienoce of a chemical plaint. It resorted in redoing the
shutdown period from 130 hour to 90 hours saving the company $ 1 million.
The CPM differentiates between planning and scheduling of the project planning reform to the
determination of activities to be accomplished for each activity of the project. The duration of
different activities in CPM are deterministic.
The CPM techniques of a research project is illustrated below with example- the following activities
are identified in the project:
Job Job Description Activity Time required
Identification
A Preparation of dealer questionnaire 1-2 10 days
B Preparation of consumer questionnaire. 1-4 10 days
C Dealer survey 2-3 20 days
D Consumer Survey 4-5 60 days
E Processing and Interpellation of dealer data 3-6 10 days
F Processing and Interpellation of consumer survey 5-6 30 days
data
Total = 140 days
Now with the data given in the example, the following diagram can be drawn up :
10 days 2 20 Days 3
1 A C 10 days
E
10 days 30 days 6
B 4 60 days 5
D F
Fig: CPM
Advantage of CPM:
1. It helps in asartaining the time schedule of activation having sequential relationship.
2. It makes control easier for management.
3. It identifies the most ordinal elements in the project thus the management is kept Alert and
prepared activities of the project.
4. It makes better and detailed planning possible.
Facility Location
Meaning & Definition:
i) To identify and list all the relevant factors for the location decision.
ii) To establish the relative importance of each factor in the final decision.
iii) To rate the performance of each candidate location using a rating mechanism.
iv) To compute a total score for each location based on its performance against each
factor and to rank. Then in the decreasing order of the score.
In this method it is observed that first of all the relevant factors are identified their relative
importance is established the performance of each location in each factor is assessed and
finally all the information is combined to rank the location.
Example:
An industrialist or a manufacturing firm is actively considering 5 (Five) alternative location
for setting a advantages to the firm. Hence the form requires to identify the most appropriate
location. Based on a survey the firm has arrived at 6 (Six) factors to be considered for final
site selection. The ratings of each factors on a scale of 1 to 100 provide this information.
Further based on the detailed of both the qualitative andquantitative date available for each of
the locations the ratings of the ratings of the location against each factor have also been
arrived at. Using this information obtaina ranking of the alternative location and suggest as to
which location should be selected.
Normalises
Factors Rating
(Relative Weights)
1. Availability of Firm 90 90/325 0.28
Size of the Market 60 60/325 0.18
Industry Relation Climate 50 50/325 0.15
Tax Benefit & Concession 30 30/325 0.09
Average of Cheap Labor 30 30/325 0.09
Nearness to Port 65 65/325 0.2
0.99
Relativ
Performance of the Location (Weight * Rate)
e
Factors
Weight
Location Location Location Location
s
Location 1 2 3 4 5
. . .
Availability of unit Structure 0.28 .28*20=5.6 28*40=11.2 28*60=16.8 .28*35=9.8 28*55=15.4
. .
Size of Market 0.18 .18*30=5.4 .18*30=5.4 .18*40=7.2 18*60=10.8 18*80=14.4
Ind. Relation Climate 0.15 .15*80=12.0 .15*30=4.5 .15*50=7.5 .15*60=9.0 .15*50=7.5
Tax Benefit 7 Concession 0.09 .90*80=7.2 .90*20=1.8 .09*10=0.9 .09*20=1.8 .09*20=1.8
.
Available of Cheap Labor 0.09 .09*70=6.3 .90*70=6.3 09*45=4.05 .09*50=4.5 .09*50=4.5
. . .
Nearness of Port 0.2 .20*20=4.0 .20*40=8.0 20*90=18.0 20*50=10.0 20*60=12.0
Overall Score for the
Location 40.5 37.2 54.45 45.9 65.9
Ranking of the Location 4 5 2 3 1
Comments:
It is seen/ observed that location 5 ranked 1 st among all the 5 location composed to their
overall score followed by location 3. So it can be advised to select location 5 for setting up
factory. Final Selection needs further analysis by calculating score information about cost and
distance.
2. Centre of Gravity Method:
Centre for Gravity Method merely indicated the ideal location in the grid map that would
ensure that the weighted distances traveled on the whole is maximum often location
planners tend to use a distance measure to evaluate the impact of a proposed location such
as approach has merit when there is a dominant requirement for locating close to the
market for products or for raw materials is supplied from several location, are represented
in a Cartesian coordinate system. Each demand or supply point with alsohave weight
which indicated the quantum of demand or supply per unit. In this context it is possible to
identify the center of gravity of the various demand or the supply point will be more
appreciated.
3. Load-Distance Method:
Load distance method enables a location planner to evaluate two or more potential
candidates for location a proposed facility VIS-a_Vis the demand or supply points. The
load-distance method provides objective measure of the total load-distance for each of the
potential candidates. Choosing the location with best load-distance among these will
satisfy the objective of identifying an appropriate location for the proposed facility.
Distance is measured using a Cartesian measure.
The distance measure for the Cartesian coordinates between and existing demand or
supply and candidate for the proposed facility Dij may be given below.
The load distance for a candidate j for the proposed facility LDj is the product of the
distance between the candidate and all existing demand or supply points. It can be
computed as follows.
4. Transportation Method:
In the previous method we have confirmed ourselvs to the issue of choosing one location
for the proposed new facility out of several alternatives but in reality there are several
situation that prompt an organization to select multiple location instead of just one.
Location problm in the case of multiple plantsand multiple demand points can be selected
using the standard transportation model.
The transportation model can be used to optimally identify a sub-set of supply point from
a potential list that can satsfy the demand at various demand points. These is a unit
transportation cost of shipping material from every supply point to every demand point
and by an optimal choice of supply points, total cost of transportation is minimised.
The figure below shows the typical representation of an transportation problem.
80 140 80
D 90 90 200
Deman
200 450 300 550 400 1900
d
Forecasting
Definition:
When estimate of future conditions are made on a systematic basis, the
process is referred to as forecasting and the figure or statement obtained is
known as forecasting. Forecasting is a service whose purpose is to offer the
best available basis for management expectation of the future and to help
management understand the implications for the firms future of the
alternative courses of action to them at present. Where the future is not
known as certainty, virtually every business and economic decision rests upon
a forecast of future conditions.
Forecasting concerned with two main tasks: first the determination of the best
basis available for the formation of intelligent management expectation and
second, the handling of uncertainty about the future so that the implication of
decision become explicit.
Forecasting is commonly applied to capital investment decision, strategic
planning, product and market planning, production planning and stock control,
budgeting control and so on.
Main function of forecasting/use/importance:
1. The creation of plans of action. It is impossible to involve a worthwhile
system of business control without an acceptable system of forecasting.
2. The second general use of forecasting is to be found in monitoring the
continuing programs of plans based on forecast. Forecast serve the
function of high houses to shipments at night, reference points for
courses and speed requiring action or no action decision.
3. The forecast provide a warning system of the critical factors to be
monitored regularly become they might drastically affect the
performance of the plan.
It is obvious form the above the forecast intelligently used may serve the
function of both light house and compass. However, the object of
forecasting is not to determine a curve of service if figures that will tell
exactly what will happen in future but it is to make analysis based on
definite statistical data which may possible help successfully prediction.
Some other key functions of forecasting:
4. An estimation tool.
5. A way of addressing the complex and uncertain environment
surrounding business decision making
6. A tool for predicting events related to operations planning and control.
Common features of forecasting:
A wide variety of forecasting techniques are in use. In many respect they
are quite different from each other and one another, but certain features
are common to all which are stated below:
1. Forecasting techniques generally assume that the same underlying
causal system that existed in the past will continue to exist in the future.
2. Forecasting are rarely perfect; actual result usually differ from predicted
value.
3. Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts
for individual items because forecasting errors among items in a group
usually have a canceling affect.
4. Forecast accuracy decrease as the time period covered by the forecasts.
Method of forecasting:
To handle the increasing variety of forecasting problem, many forecasting
techniques have been developed in recent years. Each has its special use
and care must be taken to select and correct technique for particular
application or use.
The following are some of the important method of forecasting:
1. Historical analogy method.
2. Field surveys and opinion poll.
3. Business barometer.
4. Extrapolation.
5. Regression analysis.
6. Time service analysis.
7. Exponential smoothing.
8. Economic model.
Since extrapolation assumes that the variable will follows its established
pattern growth the problem is to determine accurately. The appropriate
trend curve and the value of its parameters numerous alternative trend
curves are suitable for business forecasting application, which are:
Arithmetic trend
Semi-log trend
Modified exponential trend
Logistic curve
Supplier
Supplier Customer
Supplier
Storage Service Customer
Supplier
Pre manufacturing
Machining Fabrication
Assembly Testing
Distribution
factory warehouse Centers 1
Distribution
North East West Sout Central Centers 2
Distribution
SD SD SD SD SD SD SD Centers 3
RO RO RO RO RO RO Retail
Outlets 4
END CUSTOMERS