Community Profile Report

February 3 2021
The Community Profile Report (CPR) is generated by the Data Strategy and Execution Workgroup in the Joint Coordination Cell, under the White House COVID-19 Team. It is managed by an
interagency team with representatives from multiple agencies and offices (including the United States Department of Health and Human Services, the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, and the Indian Health Service). The CPR provides easily interpretable information on key indicators for all regions,
states, core-based statistical areas (CBSAs), and counties across the United States. It is a daily snapshot in time that:

• Focuses on recent COVID-19 outcomes in the last seven days and changes relative to the week prior
• Provides additional contextual information at the county, CBSA, state and regional levels
• Supports rapid visual interpretation of results with color thresholds

Data in this report may differ from data on state and local websites. This may be due to differences in how data were reported (e.g., date specimen obtained, or date reported for cases) or
how the metrics are calculated. Historical data may be updated over time due to delayed reporting. Data presented here use standard metrics across all geographic levels in the United
States. It facilitates the understanding of COVID-19 pandemic trends across the United States by using standardized data. The footnotes describe each data source and the methods used
for calculating the metrics. For additional data for any particular locality, visit the relevant health department website. Additional data and features are forthcoming.

White House COVID-19 Team, Joint Coordination Cell, Data Strategy and Execution Workgroup
All inquiries and requests for information to DSEW should be directed to COVID-Data-RFI@hhs.gov.

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 COMMUNITY PROFILE REPORT

Table of Contents
National Time Series 3. National time series (national case, death, percent test positivity, and hospital admission curves)
4. Time series by Census Region (regional case, death, percent test positivity, and hospital admission curves)

National Maps 5. Number of new cases and deaths in the last 7 days
6-8. Case incidence/Mortality rate/Viral (RT-PCR) lab test positivity in the last 7 days and comparison to the previous 7 days
9. Hospital admissions in the last 7 days and comparison to the previous 7 days
10-11. Hospital inpatient/ICU COVID-19 utilization in the last 7 days and comparison to the previous 7 days
12. Area of Concern Continuum (describes communities as they progress through stages of the epidemic)
13. Area of Concern Continuum - Rapid Riser Counties (highlights counties with recent acceleration in cases)

National and State 14. National and regional metrics (key indicators at the regional and national levels)
Profiles 15-16. State profiles and weekly categories (states grouped into categories based on their test positivity at the beginning of the week)

National Trends 17. Trends in case incidence during the last 8 weeks (state, regional and national case incidence curves)
18. Trends in mortality rate during the last 4 weeks and 4 week forecast (state and national mortality curves, with 4-week CDC ensemble forecast)
19. Trends in viral (RT-PCR) lab test positivity during the last 8 weeks (state, regional and national percent test positivity curves)
20. Trends in hospital admissions per 100 beds during the last 8 weeks (state, regional, and national hospital admission curves)
21-22. Trends in hospital inpatient/ICU COVID utilization during the last 8 weeks (state, regional, and national hospital utilization curves)
23. National trends in viral (RT-PCR) lab test positivity by age group (national trends showing test volume, number of tests, and percent test positivity by age group)
24. Trends in viral (RT-PCR) lab test positivity by age group and FEMA Region

CBSA Profiles 25. Select high burden core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) (CBSAs with the highest disease burden for each population size)
26. Select core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) with increasing burden (CBSAs with the largest recent increases in disease burden for each population size)
27. Select core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) with high mortality (CBSAs with the highest mortality rates for each population size)
28-29. Select core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) with high admissions/high staffed adult ICU bed use (CBSAs with the highest hospitalization rates for each population size)

Data Sources and 30. Data sources and methods (data sources and notes for cases and deaths, testing data, and hospital data)
Methods 31. Data sources and methods – color thresholds (definitions for color coding used throughout slides)
32. Data sources and methods – dynamic data notes (data notes that are updated each day or as needed)
33. Data sources and methods – AOC Continuum (detailed description of 7 stages of the epidemic described within the AOC continuum)

White House COVID-19 Team, Joint Coordination Cell, Data Strategy and Execution Workgroup
All inquiries and requests for information to DSEW should be directed to COVID-Data-RFI@hhs.gov.

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 NATIONAL TIME SERIES

Source: CDC state-reported data (cases and deaths), Unified Testing Dataset, Unified Hospital Dataset.

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 TIME SERIES BY CENSUS REGION

Source: CDC state-reported data (cases and deaths), Unified Testing Dataset, Unified Hospital Dataset.
See https://www.census.gov/geographies/reference-maps/2010/geo/2010-census-regions-and-divisions-of-the-united-states.html for census regions.
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 NUMBER OF NEW CASES AND DEATHS IN THE LAST 7 DAYS

Total Cumulative Cases: 26,277,125 Total Cumulative Deaths: 445,264

New Cases in Last 7 Days: 975,959 New Deaths in Last 7 Days: 21,745
Percent Change from Previous 7 Days: -16.3% Percent Change from Previous 7 Days: -6.3%

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 CASE INCIDENCE IN LAST 7 DAYS AND COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS 7 DAYS

Incidence Rate in the Last 7 Days: 294.0 per 100,000 Percent Change from Previous 7 Days: -16.3%

AL county-level data for cases and deaths provided directly by the state. In AL, data is sometimes backfilled due to delayed reporting, which can make recent values for cases and deaths less complete in some counties. On February
2, TX reported a daily case total of 31,811 at the state level, which includes cases from previous dates. Therefore, TX case data for the current week may be an overestimate of the current value.

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 MORTALITY RATE IN THE LAST 7 DAYS AND COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS 7 DAYS

Mortality Rate in the Last 7 Days: 6.5 deaths per 100,000 Percent Change from Previous 7 Days: -6.3%

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 VIRAL (RT-PCR) LAB TEST POSITIVITY IN THE LAST 7 DAYS AND COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS 7 DAYS

Viral (RT-PCR) Lab Test Positivity in Last 7 Days: 8.2% Absolute Change from Previous 7 Days: -1.5%

WY and OH county-level test information is provided directly to the federal government and is missing a significant proportion of known state tests. Because of this, the calculated percent test positivity may be unreliable in some counties in these states.
ME, MO, OK, PR, and WA test information at the county and state levels is provided directly to the federal government and may underestimate the total number of tests. Because of this, the calculated percent test positivity may be unreliable in some
counties in these states.
CA and CT testing data have at least 4 days with no or minimal reporting in the last week (by the data cutoff time for this report), which may result in missing values and inaccurate test positivity.

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 HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS IN THE LAST 7 DAYS AND COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS 7 DAYS

Total COVID-19 Hospital Admissions in Last 7 Days: 126,375 Percent Change from Previous 7 Days: -10.1%

Source: Unified Hospital Dataset, excluding psychiatric, rehabilitation, and religious non-medical hospitals. Total COVID-19 admissions are the sum of confirmed and suspected daily admissions reported within the last 7 days. Denominator of per 100 beds
calculation is the sum of average staffed inpatient bed count reported by hospitals within the geographic region and time period. HSA indicates Hospital Service Area. Hospitals are assigned to HSA based on zip code where known. In some areas, reports
are aggregates of multiple facilities that cross HSA boundaries; in these cases, values are assigned based on the zip code for the aggregate.

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 HOSPITAL INPATIENT COVID-19 UTILIZATION IN THE LAST 7 DAYS AND COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS 7 DAYS

Average Daily COVID-19 Hospital Inpatients over Last 7 Days:

Percent Change from Previous 7 Days: -13.1%
102,176

Source: Unified Hospital Dataset, excluding psychiatric, rehabilitation, and religious non-medical hospitals. COVID-19 inpatient utilization indicates average percentage of staffed inpatient beds occupied by COVID-19 patients within the given time period.
HSA indicates Hospital Service Area. Hospitals are assigned to HSA based on zip code where known. In some areas, reports are aggregates of multiple facilities that cross HSA boundaries; in these cases, values are assigned based on the zip code for the
aggregate. See Data Sources/Methods slides for additional details.

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 STAFFED ADULT ICU COVID-19 UTILIZATION IN THE LAST 7 DAYS AND COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS 7 DAYS

Average Daily Adult ICU COVID-19 Patients over Last 7 Days:

Percent Change from Previous 7 Days: -10.1%
24,302

Source: Unified Hospital Dataset, excluding psychiatric, rehabilitation, and religious non-medical hospitals. Staffed adult ICU COVID-19 utilization indicates average percentage of staffed adult ICU beds occupied byCOVID-19 patients within the given time
period. HSA indicates Hospital Service Area. Hospitals are assigned to HSA based on zip code where known. In some areas, reports are aggregates of multiple facilities that cross HSA boundaries; in these cases, values are assigned based on the zip code for
the aggregate. See Data Sources/Methods slides for additional details.

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AREA OF CONCERN CONTINUUM
The Areas of Concern Continuum (AOCC) is used to describe
communities as they progress through stages of the epidemic.
There are 7 possible AOC classifications based on current and
recent history of case and testing data for the location:
(1) Low Burden – communities with minimal activity
(2) Moderate Burden – communities with moderate disease
activity
(3) Emerging Hotspot – communities with a high likelihood to
become hotspots in the next 1-7 days
(4) Hotspot – communities that have reached a threshold of
disease activity considered as being of high burden
(5) Sustained Hotspot – communities that have had a high
sustained case burden and may be higher risk for experiencing
healthcare resource limitations
(6) High Burden – Resolving – communities that were recently
identified as hotspots and are now improving
(7) Moderate Burden – Resolving – communities that have a
moderate level of burden, but are demonstrating improvement
See Data Sources/Methods slides for more information.

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 AREA OF CONCERN CONTINUUM – RAPID RISER COUNTIES
This map shows counties that have seen a rapid rise in cases within the last 14
days by meeting the following Rapid Riser County criteria:
- >100 new cases in last 7 days
- >0% change in 7-day incidence
- >-60% change in 3-day incidence
- 7-day incidence / 30-day incidence ratio >0.31
- one or both of the following triggering criteria: (a) >60% change in 3-day
incidence,
(b) >60% change in 7-day incidence

The color indicates current acceleration in cases (ratio of 7-day to 30-day

cases). Counties in light red and red are continuing to see accelerating cases
in the most recent week, while those in dark green and green may have seen
declines in the most recent week.

The bar charts below show the history of rapid riser counties by FEMA region
and week, indicating when different geographic areas have seen the greatest
acceleration in cases.

On February 2, TX reported a daily case total of 31,811 at the state level, which includes cases from previous dates. Therefore, TX case data for the current week may be an overestimate of the current value.

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 NATIONAL AND REGIONAL METRICS
National Metrics

Last 7 days Change from previous week

Confirmed Percent change Daily case trend –

Viral (RT-PCR) Percent change Absolute change Percent change last 8 weeks
Cases (per 100k) admissions (per Deaths (per 100k) in conf. adm. per
lab test positivity in cases in test pos. in deaths
100 beds) 100 beds
U.S. Total – Last 7 Days 975,959 (294) 8.2% 77,825 (11) 21,745 (6.6) -16% -1.5% -13% -6%
U.S. Total – 1 Week Ago 1,165,476 (351) 9.7% 90,004 (12) 23,213 (7.0) -16% -1.6% -14% +10%
U.S. Total – Dec 2020 Peak 1,547,991 (467) 14.4% 105,679 (15) 18,780 (5.7)
CA and CT testing data have at least 4 days with no or minimal reporting in the last
U.S. Total – Nov 2020 Peak 1,232,134 (371) 10.9% 85,698 (12) 11,606 (3.5) week (by the data cutoff time for this report), which may result in missing values and
U.S. Total – Oct 2020 Peak 564,940 (170) 7.4% 44,007 (6) 5,757 (1.7) inaccurate test positivity.
U.S. Total – Sep 2020 Peak 308,302 (93) 5.4% 28,280 (4) 6,324 (1.9) On February 2, TX reported a daily case total of 31,811 at the state level, which includes
U.S. Total – Aug 2020 Peak 439,476 (132) 8.4% 40,125 (6) 8,020 (2.4) cases from previous dates. Therefore, TX case data for the current week may be an
overestimate of the current value.
U.S. Total – Jul 2020 Peak 470,611 (142) 10.5% 40,229 (8) 7,857 (2.4)
U.S. Total – Jun 2020 Peak 289,101 (87) 9.0% 25,246 (4) 7,166 (2.2) Last 7 days indicates cases/deaths data from 1/27-2/2, admissions data from 1/26-2/1,
and testing data from 1/25-1/31.
U.S. Total – May 2020 Peak 196,456 (59) 13.6% N/A 13,844 (4.2)
U.S. Total – Apr 2020 Peak 223,497 (67) 20.9% N/A 19,993 (6.0)

Regional Metrics

Last 7 days Change from previous week

FEMA Confirmed Percent change Daily case trend
Population Viral (RT-PCR) Percent change Absolute change Percent change
Region Cases (per 100k) admissions (per Deaths (per 100k) in conf. adm. per – last 8 weeks
lab test positivity in cases in test pos. in deaths
100 beds) 100 beds
4 66,908,139 228,640 (342) 10.8% 20,066 (13) 5,784 (8.6) -16% -1.7% -12% +13%
6 42,716,279 187,960 (440) 13.4% 13,550 (14) 3,154 (7.4) -2% -1.6% -14% -7%
9 51,555,755 157,804 (306) 11.9% 13,598 (15) 4,962 (9.6) -26% +0.8% -17% -7%
2 31,635,850 110,709 (350) 7.7% 8,305 (11) 1,805 (5.7) -14% -1.3% -10% -9%
5 52,542,063 96,055 (183) 5.6% 8,185 (7) 1,834 (3.5) -23% -1.0% -14% -29%
3 30,854,848 83,304 (270) 7.9% 6,658 (10) 1,679 (5.4) -12% -1.7% -12% -26%
1 14,845,063 42,365 (285) 3.9% 2,636 (8) 833 (5.6) -22% -1.3% -11% -6%
7 14,140,220 25,089 (177) 8.4% 2,214 (6) 1,019 (7.2) -27% -1.3% -18% +34%
8 12,258,952 24,139 (197) 6.8% 1,575 (6) 377 (3.1) -18% -0.8% -8% -14%
10 14,351,240 19,894 (139) 6.3% 1,038 (4) 298 (2.1) -7% -0.5% -3% -26%

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 STATE PROFILES AND WEEKLY CATEGORIES
Weekly Categorization of States/DC: color categories based on last week's test positivity data (baseline dates: January 21-27)
Case Data from January 27-February 2, Admissions Data from January 26-February 1, Test Positivity Data from January 25-31

Red States Orange States

Last 7 days Change from previous week Daily Last 7 days Change from previous week Daily
case case
State trend – State trend –
Viral (RT-PCR) Confirmed Abs. change Pct., change Viral (RT-PCR) Confirmed Abs. change Pct. change
Cases
lab test admissions
Pct. change in
in test in conf. adm. last 8 Cases
lab test admissions
Pct. change in
in test in conf. adm. last 8
(per 100k) positivity cases weeks (per 100k) positivity cases weeks
(per 100 beds) positivity per 100 beds (per 100 beds) positivity per 100 beds

OK 14,454 (365) 15.9% 1,643 (17) -21% -1.5% -12% CA* 117,584 (298) 9,859 (15) -25% -18%
TX† 142,371 (491) 15.3% 9,450 (15) +3% -1.2% -13% MO 7,550 (123) 9.2% 1,117 (7) -41% -1.4% -10%
NV 7,104 (231) 15.2% 802 (11) -20% -1.1% -12% IA 6,207 (197) 9.1% 367 (5) -20% -0.4% -10%
SC 24,237 (471) 15.1% 1,539 (15) -17% -1.0% -12% NJ 31,769 (358) 8.8% 2,314 (11) -12% -1.9% -9%
AZ 32,440 (446) 14.3% 2,886 (19) -31% -2.6% -17% AR 10,817 (358) 8.6% 811 (10) -20% -1.1% -17%
AL 17,029 (347) 13.4% 1,769 (13) -12% -1.6% -14% WV 4,957 (277) 8.6% 371 (7) -20% -0.8% -22%
UT 9,734 (304) 13.2% 513 (10) -22% -1.9% +11% IN 14,957 (222) 8.4% 1,293 (8) -23% -1.7% -15%
GA 38,219 (360) 13.1% 3,907 (20) -25% -1.6% -14% PA 37,993 (297) 8.2% 2,831 (9) +8% -0.9% -13%
KY 16,410 (367) 12.2% 2,381 (19) -16% -1.9% -12% LA 15,632 (336) 7.7% 1,080 (8) -5% -1.5% -17%
MS 8,650 (291) 11.5% 622 (8) -27% -1.5% -14% OH 29,818 (255) 7.6% 2,469 (9) -19% -1.3% -12%
NH 3,212 (236) 11.1% 135 (5) -28% -0.7% -20% NY 76,465 (393) 7.4% 5,869 (12) -15% -1.1% -9%
VA 24,786 (290) 10.9% 1,690 (10) -25% -2.4% -13% KS 7,413 (254) 7.3% 522 (7) -21% -1.0% -31%
TN 18,954 (278) 10.2% 1,194 (7) -16% -1.8% -17% PR 2,418 (76) 6.6% 118 (1) -35% -2.4% -20%
FL 68,336 (318) 10.1% 6,383 (12) -12% -1.4% -9%
NC 36,805 (351) 9.1% 2,271 (10) -14% -2.0% -12%
ID 3,064 (171) 9.1% 155 (5) -20% -1.6% -9%

The Weekly Categories slide indicates which states fell in the red, orange, yellow, light green, and dark
green categories for test positivity at the beginning of the week (as of Sunday data). The indicators shown
here are fixed throughout the week and provide a common reference point for states from week to week.
*CA and CT testing data have at least 4 days with no or minimal reporting in the last week (by the data cutoff
time for this report), which may result in missing values and inaccurate test positivity.

†On February 2, TX reported a daily case total of 31,811 at the state level, which includes cases from
previous dates. Therefore, TX case data for the current week may be an overestimate of the current value.

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 STATE PROFILES AND WEEKLY CATEGORIES CONT.
Weekly Categorization of States/DC: color categories based on last week's test positivity data (baseline dates: January 21-27)
Case Data from January 27-February 2, Admissions Data from January 26-February 1, Test Positivity Data from January 25-31

Yellow States Dark Green States

Last 7 days Change from previous week Daily Last 7 days Change from previous week Daily
case case
State trend – State trend –
Viral (RT-PCR) Confirmed Abs. change Perc, change Viral (RT-PCR) Confirmed Abs. change Pct. change
Cases
lab test admissions
Perc. change
in test in conf. adm. last 8 Cases
lab test admissions
Pct. change in
in test in conf. adm. last 8
(per 100k) in cases (per 100k) cases weeks
positivity (per 100 beds) positivity per 100 beds weeks positivity (per 100 beds) positivity per 100 beds

NE 3,919 (203) 8.9% 208 (5) -15% -3.2% -29% HI 625 (44) 3.0% 46 (2) -17% +0.2% -31%
WA 11,210 (147) 6.7% 574 (5) -2% -0.4% -0% AK 997 (136) 2.5% 22 (1) -17% -1.0% -41%
MT 2,224 (208) 6.6% 182 (6) -3% -1.4% -14% VT 911 (146) 2.4% 68 (6) -5% -0.7% +8%
OR 4,623 (110) 6.6% 287 (4) -5% +0.2% +2% ND 776 (102) 1.9% 73 (4) -17% -0.5% +8%
DE 3,206 (329) 6.6% 267 (10) -23% -1.2% -18%
MD 10,924 (181) 6.1% 1,299 (13) -23% -2.4% -8%
WI 10,176 (175) 5.4% 1,049 (8) -20% -1.1% -13%
SD 1,051 (119) 5.3% 86 (3) -34% -1.4% +5%
NM 4,686 (223) 5.2% 566 (15) -12% -1.4% -16%
MI 11,975 (120) 4.9% 1,033 (5) -19% -1.1% -22%
CT* 11,623 (326) 837 (11) -8% -7% *CA and CT testing data have at least 4 days with no or minimal reporting in the last week (by the data cutoff
IL 22,487 (177) 4.7% 1,951 (7) -30% -1.1% -11% time for this report), which may result in missing values and inaccurate test positivity.

Light Green States Territories

Last 7 days Change from previous week Daily Last 7 days Change from previous week Daily
case case
State trend – State trend –
Viral (RT-PCR) Confirmed Abs. change Pct. change Viral (RT-PCR) Confirmed Abs. change Pct. change
Cases
lab test admissions
Pct. change in
in test in conf. adm. last 8 Cases
lab test admissions
Pct. change in
in test in conf. adm. last 8
(per 100k) positivity cases weeks (per 100k) positivity cases weeks
(per 100 beds) positivity per 100 beds (per 100 beds) positivity per 100 beds

CO 9,378 (163) 4.7% 662 (6) -13% -0.2% -18% GU 50 (31) 13.8% 5 (2) +6% +4.1% +0%
RI 3,795 (358) 3.9% 173 (8) -29% -0.5% -22% VI 57 (54) N/A 4 (2) -37% N/A +100%
DC 1,438 (204) 3.8% 200 (6) -0% -0.5% -3% MP 1 (2) N/A 0 (0) -67% N/A -100%
MA 20,761 (301) 3.7% 1,324 (9) -25% -1.3% -13% AS 0 (0) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MN 6,642 (118) 3.7% 390 (4) -19% -0.6% -17% The Weekly Categories slide indicates which states fell in the red, orange, yellow, light green, and dark
ME 2,063 (153) 3.6% 99 (3) -36% -1.0% +4% green categories for test positivity at the beginning of the week (as of Sunday data). The indicators shown
WY 976 (169) 3.5% 59 (4) -21% -0.7% -25% here are fixed throughout the week and provide a common reference point for states from week to week.

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TRENDS IN CASE INCIDENCE DURING THE LAST 8 WEEKS

Figure depicts average case

incidence for each state and
region over the 8-week
period of 12/9-2/2. Vertical
axis ranges from 0 to 1,290
cases per 100,000 population
(7 day total).

Source: CDC state-reported

data. See Data
Sources/Methods slides for
additional details.

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TRENDS IN MORTALITY RATE DURING THE LAST 4 WEEKS AND 4 WEEK FORECAST

Figure depicts average

mortality rate for each state
over the 4-week period of
1/6-2/2 and a 4-week
forecast from 2/6-2/27.
Vertical axis ranges from 0 to
24 deaths per 100,000
population (7 day total).

Source: CDC state-reported

data. See Data
Sources/Methods slides for
additional details.

Forecast: The forecast

displays projected weekly
death totals using an
ensemble of predictive
models generated by
academic, private industry,
and governmental groups.
Models make various
assumptions about the levels
of social distancing and other
interventions, which may not
reflect recent changes in
behavior. More information
is available at the COVID-19
Forecast Hub. The forecast
date is as of 02/01.

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TRENDS IN VIRAL (RT-PCR) LAB TEST POSITIVITY DURING THE LAST 8 WEEKS

CA and CT testing data have at least 4 days with no or minimal

reporting in the last week (by the data cutoff time for this report),
which may result in missing values and inaccurate test positivity.

Figure depicts 7 day average

test positivity for each state
and region over the 8-week
period of 12/7-1/31. Vertical
axis ranges from 0 to 50.0%.
Most recent dates may be
less reliable due to delayed
reporting. States in gray have
limited or no reporting in
most recent week.

Source: Unified Testing

Dataset. See Data
Sources/Methods slides for
additional details.

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TRENDS IN HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS PER 100 BEDS DURING THE LAST 8 WEEKS

Figure depicts total

confirmed (darker color) and
suspected (lighter color)
hospital admissions per 100
inpatient beds for each state
and region over the 8-week
period of 12/8-2/1. Vertical
axis ranges from 0 to 47
admissions per 100 beds in a
7-day period).

Source: Unified Hospital

Dataset. See Data
Sources/Methods slides for
additional details.

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TRENDS IN HOSPITAL INPATIENT COVID UTILIZATION DURING THE LAST 8 WEEKS

Figure depicts average

inpatient bed utilization by
COVID-19 patients over the
8-week period of 12/8-2/1.
Vertical axis ranges from 0 to
35%.

Source: Unified Hospital

Dataset. See Data
Sources/Methods slides for
additional details.

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TRENDS IN STAFFED ADULT ICU BED CAPACITY DURING THE LAST 8 WEEKS

Figure depicts 7 day average

ICU COVID-19 utilization
(darker color) and overall ICU
utilization (light gray) for
each state and region over
the 8-week period of 12/8-
2/1. Vertical axis ranges from
0 to 100.0%. Color based on
ICU COVID-19 utilization
only. Most recent dates may
be less reliable due to
delayed reporting.

Source: Unified Hospital

Dataset. See Data
Sources/Methods slides for
additional details.

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 NATIONAL TRENDS - VIRAL (RT-PCR) LAB TEST POSITIVITY BY AGE GROUP
Tests per 100k population aged 18-24 in the last 7 days: 3,930 (-18% from previous 7 days) Viral (RT-PCR) lab test positivity for ages 18-24 in the last 7 days: 5.8% (-1.9% from previous 7 days)

Tests per 100k population aged 25-64 in the last 7 days: 2,212 (-30% from previous 7 days) Viral (RT-PCR) lab test positivity for ages 25-64 in the last 7 days: 8.7% (-1.2% from previous 7 days)

Tests per 100k population aged 65+ in the last 7 days: 1,796 (-26% from previous 7 days) Viral (RT-PCR) lab test positivity for ages 65+ in the last 7 days: 8.4% (-1.3% from previous 7 days)

Source: COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting (CELR) and Federal Direct Report Testing Data, limited to records with known age over the period 3/15/2020-1/31/2021.

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 TRENDS IN VIRAL (RT-PCR) LAB TEST POSITIVITY BY AGE GROUP AND REGION

Figure depicts the 14-day average percent test positivity for each region and age group over the 8-week period of 12/6-1/31. Average includes records
with known age only.

Source: COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting (CELR) and Federal Direct Report Testing Data, limited to records with known age over the period 12/6-1/31.

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 SELECT HIGH BURDEN CORE-BASED STATISTICAL AREAS (CBSAS)
WY and OH county-level test information is provided directly to the federal government and is missing a significant proportion of known state tests. Because of this, the calculated percent test positivity may be unreliable in some counties in these states. ME,
MO, OK, PR, and WA test information at the county and state levels is provided directly to the federal government and may underestimate the total number of tests. Because of this, the calculated percent test positivity may be unreliable in some counties in
these states.
CA and CT testing data have at least 4 days with no or minimal reporting in the last week (by the data cutoff time for this report), which may result in missing values and inaccurate test positivity. On February 2, TX reported a daily case total of 31,811 at
the state level, which includes cases from previous dates. Therefore, TX case data for the current week may be an overestimate of the current value.

Population over 1 million Population 250k – 1 million Population 50k – 250k

Change from Daily Change from Daily Change from Daily
Last 7 days Last 7 days Last 7 days
previous week case previous week case previous week case
CBSA CBSA CBSA
Viral Absolute trend – Viral Absolute trend – Viral Absolute trend –
(population) Cases Percent (population) Cases Percent (population) Cases Percent
(per
(RT-PCR)
change
change last 8 (per
(RT-PCR)
change
change last 8 (per
(RT-PCR)
change
change last 8
lab test in test lab test in test lab test in test
100k) in cases weeks 100k) in cases weeks 100k) in cases weeks
positivity pos. positivity pos. positivity pos.

Dallas, TX 36,055 McAllen, TX 3,861 Eagle Pass, TX 743

18.1% -14% -1.5% 19.5% +8% -1.5% 25.2% +67% -1.6%
(7,573,136) (476) (868,707) (444) (58,722) (1,265)
Phoenix, AZ 23,593 Tulsa, OK 4,437 Lake Havasu City, AZ 1,189
14.2% -29% -2.3% 18.8% -1% -1.4% 21.2% -27% +4.6%
(4,948,203) (477) (998,626) (444) (212,181) (560)
Los Angeles, CA 48,198 Bakersfield, CA 3,875 Panama City, FL 1,171
- -17% - - -12% - 17.9% -18% +0.2%
(13,214,799) (365) (900,202) (430) (174,705) (670)
Houston, TX 25,805 Augusta, GA 2,736 Owensboro, KY 654
15.5% -9% +0.5% 19.9% -21% -1.2% 27.1% -16% +4.6%
(7,066,141) (365) (608,980) (449) (119,440) (548)
Riverside, CA 16,912 Greenville, SC 3,615 Rio Grande City, TX 506
- -41% - 19.7% -30% -0.4% 24.1% -4% -0.7%
(4,650,631) (364) (920,477) (393) (64,633) (783)
Austin, TX 12,383 College Station, TX 2,446 Lawton, OK 795
13.6% +48% -0.1% 18.1% +129% +2.7% 15.9% -1% -0.6%
(2,227,083) (556) (264,728) (924) (126,415) (629)
San Antonio, TX 17,142 Killeen, TX 4,648 London, KY 698
11.7% +28% -3.3% 12.1% +223% +0.5% 16.7% -9% +1.3%
(2,550,960) (672) (460,303) (1,010) (148,123) (471)
Miami, FL 24,078 Oxnard, CA 4,146 Laurel, MS 573
11.8% -11% -1.3% - -16% - 16.3% +10% -2.3%
(6,166,488) (390) (846,006) (490) (84,481) (678)
New York, NY 82,539 El Paso, TX 3,338 Dalton, GA 632
8.2% -9% -1.2% 16.0% -6% -0.6% 16.6% -16% +0.8%
(19,216,182) (430) (844,124) (395) (144,724) (437)
Atlanta, GA 21,219 Pensacola, FL 2,297 Danville, VA 475
12.5% -30% -1.6% 16.1% -18% -2.5% 18.8% -8% -1.8%
(6,020,364) (352) (502,629) (457) (100,398) (473)
Within each population bin, CBSAs are ordered by the sum of 3 individual attribute rankings: 7-day case count, 7-day cases per 100,000 population, and 7-day average viral (RT-PCR) lab test positivity. The CBSAs with
the ten smallest sums are shown.
Last 7 days indicates cases/deaths data from 1/27-2/2, admissions data from 1/26-2/1, and testing data
from 1/25-1/31.
INITIAL PUBLIC RELEASE // SUBJECT TO CHANGE
 SELECT CORE-BASED STATISTICAL AREAS (CBSAS) WITH INCREASING BURDEN
WY and OH county-level test information is provided directly to the federal government and is missing a significant proportion of known state tests. Because of this, the calculated percent test positivity may be unreliable in some counties in these states. ME,
MO, OK, PR, and WA test information at the county and state levels is provided directly to the federal government and may underestimate the total number of tests. Because of this, the calculated percent test positivity may be unreliable in some counties in
these states.
CA and CT testing data have at least 4 days with no or minimal reporting in the last week (by the data cutoff time for this report), which may result in missing values and inaccurate test positivity. On February 2, TX reported a daily case total of 31,811 at
the state level, which includes cases from previous dates. Therefore, TX case data for the current week may be an overestimate of the current value.

Population over 1 million Population 250k – 1 million Population 50k – 250k

Change from Daily Change from Daily Change from Daily
Last 7 days Last 7 days Last 7 days
previous week case previous week case previous week case
CBSA CBSA CBSA
Viral Absolute trend – Viral Absolute trend – Viral Absolute trend –
(population) Cases Percent (population) Cases Percent (population) Cases Percent
(per
(RT-PCR)
change
change last 8 (per
(RT-PCR)
change
change last 8 (per
(RT-PCR)
change
change last 8
lab test in test lab test in test lab test in test
100k) in cases weeks 100k) in cases weeks 100k) in cases weeks
positivity pos. positivity pos. positivity pos.

Austin, TX 12,383 College Station, TX 2,446 State College, PA 706

13.6% +48% -0.1% 18.1% +129% +2.7% 11.5% +67% +4.5%
(2,227,083) (556) (264,728) (924) (162,385) (435)
Portland, OR 2,713 Killeen, TX 4,648 Kerrville, TX 357
6.4% +1% -0.1% 12.1% +223% +0.5% 9.5% +54% +2.9%
(2,492,412) (109) (460,303) (1,010) (52,600) (679)
Denver, CO 4,571 Cedar Rapids, IA 533 Sherman, TX 544
4.6% -6% -0.1% 9.9% +10% +2.8% 13.4% +75% +1.9%
(2,967,239) (154) (273,032) (195) (136,212) (399)
Houston, TX 25,805 Waco, TX 1,072 Jefferson City, MO 278
15.5% -9% +0.5% 12.0% +11% +1.1% 9.1% +26% +2.5%
(7,066,141) (365) (273,920) (391) (151,235) (184)
Hartford, CT 3,819 Harrisburg, PA 2,817 Athens, OH 228
- -6% - 8.5% +101% -0.2% 17.9% +23% +4.2%
(1,204,877) (317) (577,941) (487) (65,327) (349)
Seattle, WA 4,890 Salem, OR 660 Texarkana, TX 978
6.4% -3% -0.5% 9.9% +0% +0.5% 11.9% +115% +1.3%
(3,979,845) (123) (433,903) (152) (148,761) (657)
Jacksonville, FL 5,634 Spokane, WA 1,560 Hammond, LA 552
10.1% +2% -1.0% 8.6% +27% -0.2% 10.0% +45% +1.6%
(1,559,514) (361) (568,521) (274) (134,758) (410)
San Francisco, CA 8,368 Stockton, CA 2,192 Enid, OK 347
- -12% - - -3% - 21.9% +23% +2.0%
(4,731,803) (177) (762,148) (288) (61,056) (568)
Los Angeles, CA 48,198 Ann Arbor, MI 757 Redding, CA 390
- -17% - 3.0% +28% -0.3% - +6% -
(13,214,799) (365) (367,601) (206) (180,080) (217)
Minneapolis, MN 4,432 Lancaster, PA 2,612 Brunswick, GA 506
3.9% -13% -0.4% 11.2% +44% -0.4% 10.7% +53% +1.1%
(3,640,043) (122) (545,724) (479) (118,779) (426)
Within each population bin, CBSAs with at least 200 total cases and at least 30 cases per 100K in the past 7 days are ordered by the sum of 2 individual attribute rankings: 7-day percent change in cases and 7-day
absolute change in viral (RT-PCR) lab test positivity. The CBSAs with the ten smallest sums are shown.
Last 7 days indicates cases/deaths data from 1/27-2/2, admissions data from 1/26-2/1, and testing data
from 1/25-1/31.
INITIAL PUBLIC RELEASE // SUBJECT TO CHANGE
 SELECT CORE-BASED STATISTICAL AREAS (CBSAS) WITH HIGH MORTALITY

Population over 1 million Population 250k - 1 million Population 50k - 250k

Change from Daily Change from Daily Change from Daily
Last 7 days Last 7 days Last 7 days
previous week death previous week death previous week death
CBSA CBSA CBSA
trend - trend - trend -
(population) Deaths Percent Absolute (population) Deaths Percent Absolute (population) Deaths Percent Absolute
Deaths (per change change
last 8 Deaths (per change change
last 8 Deaths (per change change
last 8
100k) in deaths in deaths weeks 100k) in deaths in deaths weeks 100k) in deaths in deaths weeks

Los Angeles, CA Huntsville, AL Gadsden, AL

1857 14.1 +4% 74 109 23.1 +148% 65 65 63.6 +210% 44
(13,214,799) (471,824) (102,268)

Phoenix, AZ Montgomery, AL Florence, AL

562 11.4 -19% -128 77 20.6 +45% 24 60 40.5 +20% 10
(4,948,203) (373,290) (147,970)

Riverside, CA Knoxville, TN Decatur, AL

479 10.3 -1% -5 99 11.4 +15% 13 58 38.0 +35% 15
(4,650,631) (869,046) (152,603)

San Antonio, TX Fresno, CA Dothan, AL

251 9.8 +26% 52 101 10.1 -13% -15 54 36.2 +50% 18
(2,550,960) (999,101) (149,358)

Birmingham, AL Scranton, PA Norwalk, OH

180 16.5 -10% -20 73 13.2 +1% 1 35 60.1 +1067% 32
(1,090,435) (553,885) (58,266)

Dallas, TX Oxnard, CA El Centro, CA

535 7.1 -15% -93 83 9.8 -25% -27 37 20.4 -24% -12
(7,573,136) (846,006) (181,215)

Atlanta, GA Visalia, CA Albertville, AL

444 7.4 +12% 49 64 13.7 +78% 28 34 35.1 +79% 15
(6,020,364) (466,195) (121,464)

New York, NY Des Moines, IA Lake Havasu City, AZ

1154 6.0 -3% -33 70 10.0 +268% 51 37 17.4 -35% -20
(19,216,182) (699,292) (212,181)

Pittsburgh, PA Augusta, GA Fort Payne, AL

200 8.6 -25% -67 65 10.7 +16% 9 31 43.3 +107% 16
(2,317,600) (608,980) (71,513)

Tucson, AZ Utica, NY Yuma, AZ

146 13.9 -36% -81 55 19.0 +12% 6 34 15.9 -29% -14
(1,047,279) (289,990) (213,787)

Within each population bin, CBSAs are ordered by the sum of 2 individual attribute rankings: 7-day death count and 7-day deaths per 100,000 population. The CBSAs with the ten smallest sums are shown.

Data Source: CDC Aggregate Dataset. Last 7 days indicates deaths from 01/27-02/02.

INITIAL PUBLIC RELEASE // SUBJECT TO CHANGE

 SELECT CORE-BASED STATISTICAL AREAS (CBSAS) WITH HIGH HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS

Population over 1 million Population 250k - 1 million Population 50k - 250k

Change from Daily Change from Daily Change from Daily
Last 7 days Last 7 days Last 7 days
previous week conf. previous week conf. previous week conf.
CBSA adm. CBSA adm. CBSA adm.
Conf. Susp. Percent Percent Conf. Susp. Percent Percent Conf. Susp. Percent Percent
(population) trend - (population) trend - (population) trend -
adm. adm. change change adm. adm. change change adm. adm. change change
(per 100 (per 100 in conf. in susp. last 8 (per 100 (per 100 in conf. in susp. last 8 (per 100 (per 100 in conf. in susp. last 8
beds) beds) adm. adm. weeks beds) beds) adm. adm. weeks beds) beds) adm. adm. weeks
Miami, FL 1,975 468 El Paso, TX 369 39 London, KY 235 0
-1% -11% -3% +11% +24% -
(6,166,488) (14) (3) (844,124) (19) (2) (148,123) (62) (0)

New York, NY 5,727 1,903 Waco, TX 143 18 Springfield, OH 104 30

-9% -3% +23% -18% +51% +15%
(19,216,182) (12) (4) (273,920) (28) (4) (134,083) (38) (11)

Dallas, TX 2,697 2,324 Killeen, TX 291 94 Gallup, NM 173 24

-14% +2% -10% +65% +10% +14%
(7,573,136) (19) (16) (460,303) (26) (8) (71,367) (149) (21)

Louisville, KY 804 270 Montgomery, AL 191 205 Lawton, OK 323 4

-10% -1% -2% +45% +2% -20%
(1,265,108) (22) (7) (373,290) (17) (19) (126,415) (152) (2)

Houston, TX 1,975 1,103 Augusta, GA 240 31 Sumter, SC 92 1

-12% -7% -4% -24% +26% -50%
(7,066,141) (14) (8) (608,980) (14) (2) (140,466) (36) (0)

Tampa, FL 1,055 474 Lakeland, FL 276 77 Lake Havasu City, AZ 401 20

-4% +6% -11% -26% -6% +5%
(3,194,831) (12) (5) (724,777) (18) (5) (212,181) (72) (4)

Atlanta, GA 1,931 737 Bridgeport, CT 238 23 Brunswick, GA 69 0

-15% -9% -2% -26% +116% -
(6,020,364) (21) (8) (943,332) (14) (1) (118,779) (28) (0)

Baltimore, MD 638 1,209 Pensacola, FL 200 61 Burlington, NC 59 0

-4% +2% -3% +97% +34% -
(2,800,053) (11) (20) (502,629) (14) (4) (169,509) (27) (0)

Las Vegas, NV 690 650 Roanoke, VA 152 150 Dothan, AL 100 16

-9% -2% +10% +22% +32% +300%
(2,266,715) (12) (12) (313,222) (13) (13) (149,358) (15) (2)

Philadelphia, PA 1,370 1,061 McAllen, TX 368 113 DuBois, PA 128 8

-7% -1% -12% -3% -15% -
(6,102,434) (9) (7) (868,707) (15) (5) (79,255) (87) (5)

Within each population bin, CBSAs are ranked by the sum of 3 individual attribute rankings: 7-day confirmed COVID hospital admissions count, 7-day confirmed COVID hospital admissions per 100 staffed inpatient beds,
and 7-day percent change in confirmed COVID hospital admissions.
Data Source: Unified Hospital Dataset. Last 7 days indicates admissions/bed data from 01/26-02/01.

INITIAL PUBLIC RELEASE // SUBJECT TO CHANGE

 SELECT CORE-BASED STATISTICAL AREAS (CBSAS) WITH HIGH STAFFED ADULT ICU BED USE

Population over 1 million Population 250k - 1 million Population 50k - 250k

Last 7 days Last 7 days Daily
Last 7 days Last 7 days Daily
Last 7 days Last 7 days Daily
(weekly avg.) (weekly avg.) COVID (weekly avg.) (weekly avg.) COVID (weekly avg.) (weekly avg.) COVID
CBSA ICU
utilization
CBSA ICU
utilization
CBSA ICU
utilization
Abs. Abs Abs. Abs Abs. Abs
(population) ICU beds ICU beds change in % change in trend - (population) ICU beds ICU beds change in % change in trend - (population) ICU beds ICU beds change in % change in trend -
occupied last 8 occupied last 8 occupied last 8
by COVID
occupied ICU beds % ICU
by COVID
occupied ICU beds % ICU
by COVID
occupied ICU beds % ICU
(%) occupied by beds weeks (%) occupied by beds weeks (%) occupied by beds weeks
(%) COVID (%) COVID (%) COVID
occupied occupied occupied

Dallas, TX 787 1692 Stockton, CA 91 141 Gainesville, GA 71 127

-3% -2% -5% -0% -6% -4%
(7,573,136) (43%) (94%) (762,148) (62%) (96%) (204,441) (54%) (97%)

Riverside, CA 587 991 Laredo, TX 76 108 El Centro, CA 34 43

-4% -3% -4% -3% -10% -1%
(4,650,631) (54%) (92%) (276,652) (66%) (94%) (181,215) (75%) (96%)

San Diego, CA 395 653 McAllen, TX 152 230 Abilene, TX 26 59

-5% -1% +9% -2% -11% +0%
(3,338,330) (55%) (91%) (868,707) (59%) (89%) (172,060) (44%) (100%)

San Antonio, TX 435 803 Fresno, CA 95 219 Dothan, AL 39 67

-2% +1% -1% -0% -16% -5%
(2,550,960) (49%) (91%) (999,101) (41%) (95%) (149,358) (52%) (90%)

Los Angeles, CA 1914 3056 Oxnard, CA 90 145 Auburn, AL 17 30

-5% -2% -1% +1% +11% +0%
(13,214,799) (54%) (86%) (846,006) (57%) (91%) (164,542) (56%) (100%)

Houston, TX 634 1570 Montgomery, AL 54 109 Victoria, TX 38 60

-2% -0% -5% -1% -1% -4%
(7,066,141) (36%) (88%) (373,290) (46%) (93%) (99,742) (56%) (88%)

Las Vegas, NV 288 613 Columbus, GA 43 74 Athens, GA 37 83

-5% +1% +1% -3% -5% -5%
(2,266,715) (42%) (89%) (321,048) (55%) (94%) (213,750) (41%) (94%)

Atlanta, GA 562 1181 Huntsville, AL 59 124 Hattiesburg, MS 30 73

-4% -1% -6% -1% +2% +4%
(6,020,364) (41%) (86%) (471,824) (43%) (92%) (168,849) (40%) (96%)

Austin, TX 180 398 Bakersfield, CA 81 144 Shelby, NC 13 19

-3% -2% -6% -4% -2% +3%
(2,227,083) (39%) (86%) (900,202) (48%) (85%) (97,947) (72%) (107%)

Birmingham, AL 190 533 Beaumont, TX 45 90 Texarkana, TX 35 62

-9% -6% +4% -1% -8% +2%
(1,090,435) (31%) (87%) (392,563) (46%) (93%) (148,761) (50%) (88%)

All ICU bed counts refer to staffed adult ICU beds. Within each population bin, CBSAs are ranked by the sum of 3 individual attribute rankings: 7-day weekly average number of adult ICU COVID-19 patients, 7-day weekly
average percentage of staffed adult ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients, and 7-day weekly average percentage of staffed adult ICU beds occupied by any patient.
Data Source: Unified Hospital Dataset. Last 7 days indicates ICU data from 01/26-02/01.

INITIAL PUBLIC RELEASE // SUBJECT TO CHANGE

 DATA SOURCES AND METHODS

DATA NOTES
• Some dates may have incomplete data due to delays in reporting. Data may be backfilled over time, resulting in changes from day to day.
• Population/Demographics: Population and demographic data is from US Census Vintage 2019 Demographic Estimates.

• Cases and Deaths: COVID-19 case and death metrics at the state and county level are generated using a dataset managed by the CDC which is compiled from state and local health departments.
Most states and localities report both confirmed and suspected cases and deaths, although some report just confirmed cases and deaths. To ensure data quality, daily data alerts are monitored for
deviations in the data (e.g., decreases in cumulative values, no change in values, abnormal increases in values). These alerts are manually reviewed every day by checking the data against local
government websites, state websites, and news sources, and the raw values are corrected as needed to reflect local government reports. Cases are based on date of report and not on date of
symptom onset. This may cause artificial spikes in any given day of data. Changes in reporting may also cause temporary spikes or dips (e.g. shifts from reporting confirmed and probable cases to
reporting just confirmed cases). Case data are presented as 7-day totals or averages to adjust for these anomalies as well as weekly variations in reporting. CBSA-level data are calculated by
aggregating county/municipio-level data. Regional and national values are calculated by aggregating state-level data.

• Testing: CELR (COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting) state health department-reported data are used to describe state-level totals when able to be disaggregated from serology test results and to
describe county-level totals when information is available on patients’ county of residence or healthcare providers’ practice location. HHS Protect laboratory data (provided directly to Federal
Government from public health labs, hospital labs, and six commercial labs) are used otherwise. Some states did not report on certain days, which may affect the total number of tests resulted and
positivity rate values. Total diagnostic tests are the number of tests performed, not the number of individuals tested. Viral (RT-PCR) lab test positivity rate is the number of positive tests divided by
the number of tests performed and resulted. See https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/resources/calculating-percent-positivity.html for more information on this method. Testing data
may be backfilled over time, resulting in changes week-to-week in testing data.

• Hospital Data: Unified Hospital Dataset, including federal facilities (VA, DHA, and IHS hospitals) and excluding psychiatric, rehabilitation, and religious non-medical hospitals.
• Hospital data are reported to HHS either directly from facilities or via a state submission. Data for hospitals with the same CMS Certification Number (CCN) are aggregated. Three percent
of CCNs contain multiple facilities that map to different counties and some of these may also map to different CBSAs. These data are reported daily by more than 6,000 facilities across the
country. While these data are reviewed for errors and corrected, some reporting errors may still exist within the data. To minimize errors in data reported here, extreme outliers are
removed from the data before the metrics are calculated.
• Total inpatient bed, ICU bed, and ventilator counts are calculated as an average among reports from each hospital in the given timeframe. Unless otherwise noted, “inpatient beds”
indicates staffed adult and pediatric inpatient beds, while “ICU beds” indicates staffed adult ICU beds. Utilization metrics calculate the average utilization in the geography for the week.
Due to inconsistent reporting and impacts of staffing on the total number of beds at each hospital, variations may occur over time and the number shown may not be a full representation
of the true number of resources in the area.
• Total number of admissions is calculated as a sum of confirmed and suspected admissions, both adult and pediatric, reported by all hospitals reporting in the given timeframe. Due to
inconsistent reporting and data errors, the number shown may not be a full representation of the true number of admissions in the area.

INITIAL PUBLIC RELEASE // SUBJECT TO CHANGE

 DATA SOURCES AND METHODS – COLOR THRESHOLDS

CASES/DEATHS
Color Thresholds DARK GREEN LIGHT GREEN YELLOW ORANGE LIGHT RED RED

for Indicators Confirmed cases - 7-day total

Cases per 100k - 7-day total 4 or less 5–9
colored by per capita thresholds
10 – 50 51 – 100 101 – 199 200 or more
Confirmed deaths - 7-day total colored by per capita thresholds
The green-to-red color thresholds Confirmed deaths per 100k - 7-day total not used 0.0 0.1 – 1.0 1.1 – 2.0 2.1 – 5.0 5.1 or more
convey information on levels of Confirmed cases - % change
transmission severity. There are -26% or less -25% – -11% -10% – +0% +1% – +10% +11% – +25% +26% or more
Confirmed deaths - % change
not specific labels associated with
each color threshold. VIRAL (RT-PCR) LAB TESTING
DARK GREEN LIGHT GREEN YELLOW ORANGE LIGHT RED RED
Colors are determined by first Viral (RT-PCR) lab test positivity rate - 7 day average 2.9% or less 3.0% – 4.9% 5.0% – 7.9% 8.0% – 10.0% 10.1% – 15.0% 15.1% or more
rounding a raw number to the Total RT-PCR diagnostic tests - 7-day total colored by per capita thresholds
nearest integer or tenth, and then RT-PCR tests per 100k - 7-day total 5,000 or more 3,000 – 4,999 2,000 – 2,999 1,000 – 1,999 500 – 999 499 or less
selecting the associated color. If Viral (RT-PCR) lab test positivity rate - absolute change -2.1% or less -2.0% – -0.6% -0.5% – +0.0% +0.1% – +0.5% +0.6% – +2.0% +2.1% or more
there is no data or a metric Total RT-PCR diagnostic tests - percent change +26% or more +25% – +11% +10% – +1% +0% – -10% -11% – -25% -26% or less
cannot be computed, a cell is
colored gray.
HOSPITAL UTILIZATION
Color thresholds were set based DARK GREEN LIGHT GREEN YELLOW ORANGE LIGHT RED RED
on a variety of factors and Confirmed COVID-19 admissions - 7-day total
analyses, including assessing Suspected COVID-19 admissions - 7-day total colored by per 100 bed thresholds
Total COVID-19 admissions - 7-day total
historical correlations in test
Confirmed COVID-19 admissions per 100 inpatient beds - 7-day total
positivity and case counts. 1 or less 2–3 4–5 6 – 10 11 – 15 16 or more
Suspected COVID-19 admissions per 100 inpatient beds - 7-day total
Total COVID-19 admissions per 100 inpatient beds - 7-day total 2 or less 3–5 6 – 10 11 – 15 16 – 20 21 or more
Additional shades of red are used
% inpatient beds occupied
for certain visualizations to % ICU beds occupied
GRAY
81% – 90% 91% or more
provide greater context. 0% – 80%
% ventilators in use
% inpatient beds occupied by COVID-19 patient
NOTE: Colors are applied after
% ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patient 3% or less 4% – 7% 8% – 12% 13% – 15% 16% – 20% 21% or more
rounding to the displayed digits % ventilators in use by COVID-19 patient
of precision Confirmed COVID-19 admissions per 100 inpatient beds - percent change
-26% or less -25% – -11% -10% – +0% +1% – +10% +11% – +25% +26% or more
Suspected COVID-19 admissions per 100 inpatient beds - percent change
% inpatient beds occupied - absolute change
% inpatient beds occupied by COVID-19 patient - absolute change
% ICU beds occupied - absolute change
-2% or less -1% 0% +1% +2% +3% or more
% ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patient - absolute change
% ventilators in use - absolute change
% ventilators in use by COVID-19 patient - absolute change

INITIAL PUBLIC RELEASE // SUBJECT TO CHANGE

 DATA SOURCES AND METHODS
• States that have provided no county testing data for the most recent days of
reporting:
• VI provided no testing data after 10/18: VI's testing numbers may therefore be a
significant underestimate of the true value.
• CA provided no testing data after 01/26: CA's testing numbers may therefore be a
significant underestimate of the true value.
• CT provided no testing data after 01/28: CT's testing numbers may therefore be a
significant underestimate of the true value.
• States that have provided no state testing data for the most recent days of
reporting:
• VI provided no testing data after 10/18: VI's testing numbers may therefore be a
significant underestimate of the true value.
• CA provided no testing data after 01/26: CA's testing numbers may therefore be a
significant underestimate of the true value.
• CT provided no testing data after 01/28: CT's testing numbers may therefore be a
significant underestimate of the true value.
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• Cases and Deaths
• County-level case and death data are inclusive of all updates as of 03PM 2/3/2021.
• State-level case and death data are inclusive of all updates as of 03PM 2/3/2021.
• County Test Data Source by State
• Data provided directly to the federal government: ME, MO, OH, OK, PR, WA, WY
• CELR data from states provided in aggregate format: VI
• CELR data from states provided in line level format: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE,
FL, GA, GU, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MN, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH,
NJ, NM, NV, NY, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV
• WY and OH county-level test information is provided directly to the federal government
and is missing a significant proportion of known state tests. Because of this, the
calculated percent test positivity may be unreliable in some counties in these states.
• ME, MO, OK, PR, and WA test information at the county and state levels is provided
directly to the federal government and may underestimate the total number of tests.
Because of this, the calculated percent test positivity may be unreliable in some
counties in these states.
• State Test Data Source by State
• Data provided directly to the federal government: ME, MO, OK, PR, WA
• CELR data from states provided in aggregate format: OH, VI, WY
• CELR data from states provided in line level format: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE,
FL, GA, GU, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MN, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH,
NJ, NM, NV, NY, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV
• WY and OH county-level test information is provided directly to the federal government
and is missing a significant proportion of known state tests. Because of this, the
calculated percent test positivity may be unreliable in some counties in these states.
• ME, MO, OK, PR, and WA test information at the county and state levels is provided
directly to the federal government and may underestimate the total number of tests.
Because of this, the calculated percent test positivity may be unreliable in some
counties in these states.
 DATA SOURCES AND METHODS – AOC CONTINUUM
The Areas of Concern Continuum is used to describe communities as they progress through stages of the epidemic.
There are 7 possible AOC classifications based on current and recent history of case and testing data for the location:
Low Burden Community
Purpose: Identify communities with minimal activity.
Definition:
• <10 new cases per 100k population in the last week
Moderate Burden Community
Purpose: Identify communities with moderate disease activity.
Definition:
• Has NOT been identified as a Hotspot, Sustained Hotspot, or High
Burden—Resolving within the last 2 weeks
AND
• Does not meet the definition for an Emerging Hotspot, Hotspot,
Sustained Hotspot, or High Burden—Resolving
AND
• Does not meet the definition for being a Low Burden Community
Emerging Hotspot
Purpose: Generate early and reliable signals of communities with
emerging increases in disease burden that have a high likelihood for
becoming a hotspot in the next 1-7 days.
Method:
Decision tree model that leverages the following features, trained based
on prior data:
Cases
• Total cases in the last week
• Total cases per 100k population in the last week
• New cases in the last week minus new cases the previous week
• Ratio of total cases in last 7 days to total cases in last 30 days
Testing
• Number of tests last week
• Difference in percent positive tests in last 7 days from last 21 days
Hotspot High Burden - Resolving
Purpose: Identify communities that have reached a threshold of Purpose: Identify communities that were recently identified as hotspots
disease activity considered as being of high burden. and are now improving.
Definition: Definition:
• >100 new cases per 100k population OR >500 new cases in the • Identified as a Hotspot or Sustained Hotspot within the last 2 weeks
past week AND
AND • Not currently a Emerging Hotspot, Hotspot, or Sustained Hotspot
• Number of days in downward case trajectory* ≤ 7 days AND
AND • >100 new cases per 100k population OR >500 new cases in last week
• >50 cases during past week AND
AND • Number of days in downward trajectory* ≥ 7
• Conditions must hold for at least 3 of the previous 5 days AND
• >50 cases during last week OR both ≥ 10 cases in last week and >10%
Sustained Hotspot test positivity in last week
Purpose: Identify communities that have had a high sustained case
burden and are at potentially higher risk for experiencing healthcare
Moderate Burden - Resolving
resource limitations. Purpose: Identify communities that have a moderate level of burden, but
are demonstrating improvement.
Definition:
• Either Hotspot for at least 7 preceding days or already a Sustained Definition:
Hotspot on previous day • Identified as a Hotspot, Sustained Hotspot, or High Burden—Resolving
AND within the last 2 weeks
• >200 new cases per 100k population OR >1,000 new cases in the AND
past two weeks • Does not meet the definition for an Emerging Hotspot, Hotspot,
AND Sustained Hotspot, or High Burden—Resolving
• Daily incidence rate >15 new cases per 100k population for 8 or AND
more of the last 14 days OR test positivity >10% over last 14 days • Does not meet the definition for being a Low Burden Community
AND *Number of Days in Downward Case Trajectory: This field is calculated using a CDC algorithm that first fits a
• >100 cases during the last two weeks smooth spline curve to daily case counts, and then counts the number of days that curve has been decreasing
or at a low level. More specifically, the computation is based on a cubic spline fit of the 7-day rolling average
AND
of cases. The number of days decreasing (in downward trajectory) is calculated by summing the number of
• Conditions must hold for at least 3 of the previous 5 days consecutive days of decline or near-zero incidence. A day is considered part of a downward trajectory if it (i)
was previously at elevated incidence (had a two-week incidence greater than 10 cases per 100k population),
and (ii) meets one of the following three conditions: (a) had a negative slope, OR (b) was in a low-incidence
Data Sources: CDC Aggregate County Data; Unified Testing Dataset; plateau (two-week incidence ≤ 10 cases per 100k population and a slope ≥ 0 to < 0.1 new cases per 100k
US Census 2019 population based on a 7-day moving average), OR (c) had less than 5 cases in the past 2 weeks.
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