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Estimating Cost of Capital
Estimating Cost of Capital
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2 Journal of Applied Finance – No. 1, 2013
enables teachers to answer the inevitable question, “But how A standard means of expressing a company’s cost of
do companies really estimate their cost of capital?” capital is the weighted-average of the cost of individual
The paper is part of a lengthy tradition of surveys of sources of capital employed. In symbols, a company’s
industry practice. For instance, Burns and Walker (2009) weighted-average cost of capital (or WACC) is:
examine a large set of surveys conducted over the last
quarter century into how US companies make capital WACC = (Wdebt(1-t) Kdebt) + (WequityKequity), (1)
budgeting decisions. They find that estimating the weighted
where:
average cost of capital is the primary approach to selecting
K = component cost of capital.
hurdle rates. More recently, Jacobs and Shivdasani (2012)
W = weight of each component as percent of total capital.
report on a large-scale survey of how financial practitioners
t = marginal corporate tax rate.
implement cost of capital estimation. Our approach differs
from most papers in several important respects. Typically For simplicity, this formula includes only two sources of
studies are based on written, closed-end surveys sent capital; it can be easily expanded to include other sources
electronically to a large sample of firms, often covering a as well.
wide array of topics, and commonly using multiple choice Finance theory offers several important observations
or fill-in-the-blank questions. Such an approach typically when estimating a company’s WACC. First, the capital costs
yields low response rates and provides limited opportunity appearing in the equation should be current costs reflecting
to explore subtleties of the topic. For instance, Jacobs and current financial market conditions, not historical, sunk costs.
Shivdasani (2012) provide useful insights based on the In essence, the costs should equal the investors’ anticipated
Association for Finance Professionals (AFP) cost of capital internal rate of return on future cash flows associated with
survey. While the survey had 309 respondents, AFP (2011, each form of capital. Second, the weights appearing in the
page 18) reports this was a response rate of about 7% based equation should be market weights, not historical weights
on its membership companies. In contrast, we report the based on often arbitrary, out-of-date book values. Third,
result of personal telephone interviews with practitioners the cost of debt should be after corporate tax, reflecting the
from a carefully chosen group of leading corporations and benefits of the tax deductibility of interest.
financial advisors. Another important difference is that many Despite the guidance provided by finance theory, use of
existing papers focus on how well accepted modern financial the weighted-average expression to estimate a company’s
techniques are among practitioners, while we are interested cost of capital still confronts the practitioner with a number
in those areas of cost of capital estimation where finance of difficult choices.2 As our survey results demonstrate, the
theory is silent or ambiguous and practitioners are left to most nettlesome component of WACC estimation is the cost
their own devices. of equity capital; for unlike readily available yields in bond
The following section gives a brief overview of the markets, no observable counterpart exists for equities. This
weighted-average cost of capital. The research approach forces practitioners to rely on more abstract and indirect
and sample selection are discussed in Section II. Section III methods to estimate the cost of equity capital.
reports the general survey results. Key points of disparity are
reviewed in Section IV. Section V discusses further survey II. Sample Selection
results on risk adjustment to a baseline cost of capital, and
Section VI highlights some institutional and market forces This paper describes the results of conversations with
affecting cost of capital estimation. Section VII offers leading practitioners. Believing that the complexity of the
conclusions and implications for the financial practitioner. subject does not lend itself to a written questionnaire, we
wanted to solicit an explanation of each firm’s approach
I. The Weighted-Average Cost of Capital told in the practitioner’s own words. Though our telephone
interviews were guided by a series of questions, the
A key insight from finance theory is that any use of capital conversations were sufficiently open-ended to reveal many
imposes an opportunity cost on investors; namely, funds are subtle differences in practice.
diverted from earning a return on the next best equal-risk Since our focus is on the gaps between theory and
investment. Since investors have access to a host of financial application rather than on average or typical practice, we
market opportunities, corporate uses of capital must be
benchmarked against these capital market alternatives. 2
Even at the theoretical level, the use of standard net present value (NPV)
The cost of capital provides this benchmark. Unless a firm decision rules (with, for instance, WACC as a discount rate) does not
capture the option value of being able to delay an irreversible investment
can earn in excess of its cost of capital on an average-risk expenditure. As a result, a firm may find it better to delay an investment
investment, it will not create economic profit or value for even if the current NPV is positive. Our survey does not explore the ways
investors. firms deal with this issue; rather we focus on measuring capital costs.
Brotherson et al. – “Best Practices” in Estimating the Cost of Capital: An Update 3
aimed to sample practitioners who were leaders in the field. North America (eight excluded).4 We also eliminated the
We began by searching for a sample of corporations (rather one firm classified as a regulated utility (on the grounds
than investors or financial advisors) in the belief that they that regulatory mandates create unique issues for capital
had ample motivation to compute WACC carefully and to budgeting and cost of capital estimation) and the seven
resolve many of the estimation issues themselves. Several firms in financial services (inclusive of insurance, banking,
publications offer lists of firms that are well-regarded in securities and real estate). Forty-seven companies satisfied
finance; of these, we chose Fortune’s 2012 listing of Most our screens. Of these, 19 firms agreed to be interviewed and
Admired Companies.3 Working with the Hay Group, Fortune are included in the sample given in Table I. Despite multiple
creates what it terms “the definitive report card on corporate concerted attempts we made to contact appropriate personnel
reputations.” Hay provided us with a listing of companies at each company, our response rate is lower than Bruner,
ranked by the criterion “wise use of assets” within industry. Eades, Harris, and Higgins (1998) but still much higher than
To create our sample we only used companies ranked first or typical cost of capital surveys. We suspect that increases in
second in their industry. We could not obtain raw scores that the number of surveys and in the demands on executives’
would allow comparisons across industries. time influence response rates now versus the late 1990s.
The 2012 Fortune rankings are based on a survey of 698 We approached corporate officers first with an email
companies, each of which is among the largest in its industry. explaining our research. Our request was to interview
For each of 58 industry lists, Hay asks executives, directors, the individual in charge of estimating the firm’s WACC.
and analysts to rate companies in their own industry on a set We then arranged phone conversations. We promised our
of criteria. Starting with the top two ranked firms in each interviewees that, in preparing a report on our findings, we
industry, we eliminated companies headquartered outside would not identify the practices of any particular company
by name—we have respected this promise in the presentation
3
For instance, Institutional Investor publishes lists of firms with the best
Chief Financial Officers (CFOs), or with special competencies in certain
areas. We elected not to use such lists because special competencies might 4
This screen was also used in Bruner et al. (1998). Our reasons for
not indicate a generally excellent finance department, nor might a stellar excluding these firms were the increased difficulty of obtaining interviews,
CFO. The source used by Bruner et al. (1998) is no longer published. Our and possible difficulties in obtaining capital market information (such as
approach, however, mirrors that earlier work. betas and equity market premiums).
4 Journal of Applied Finance – No. 1, 2013
4. What weighting factors do you use? A) 37% Target; 37% Current; 26% Not A) 73% Target/Optimal; 27% Current A) 50% Market; 50% Target
A) Target weights vs. current debt/ Reported B) 100% MV equity and debt B) 100% MV equity and debt
equity? B) 74% MV equity and debt; 21% MV
B) Market vs. book weights? equity with BV debt; 5% BV both
5. How do you estimate your before tax 26% U.S. Treasury yield + spread 55% Current yield to maturity 83% Yield to maturity
cost of debt? 21% Marginal/YTM outstanding debt 45% New debt yield to maturity 17% Marginal cost of new debt
21% Weighted avg outstanding issues
5% Banker’s estimate
Brotherson et al. – “Best Practices” in Estimating the Cost of Capital: An Update
5% Current yield
5% Current rate, bank debt
11% Other
5% N/A
6. What tax rate do you use? 95% Effective marginal or statutory 100% Effective marginal or statutory 67% Marginal income tax rate
5% Other 33% Statutory corporate tax rate
7. How do you estimate your cost of 90% CAPM 100% CAPM 100% CAPM
equity? (If you do not use CAPM, skip 5% CAPM with dividend discount model
to question 12.) and bond/stock relationship as a check Also mention dividend discount/
5% Modified required return model using growth, arbitrage pricing, and
beta Fama-French models
5
(Continued)
6
Table II. General Survey Results (Continued)
Questions Corporations Financial Advisors Textbooks/Trade Books
8. As usually written, the CAPM version 95% Yes 100% Yes 100% Yes
of the cost of equity has three terms: 5% No
a risk free rate, a volatility or beta
factor, and a market risk premium. Is
this consistent with your company’s
approach?
9. What do you use for the risk-free rate 52% 10-year Treasuries 73% 10-year Treasuries 50% Long-term Treasuries
(both maturity and measurement)? 21% 20-year Treasuries 18% 20-year Treasuries 33% Long-term Treasuries less
21% 30-year Treasuries 9% 30-year Treasuries historical “term premium”
21% use something other than the spot yield 36% use some historical average rather
to maturity (e.g., some form of historical than the spot yield to maturity
averaging)
10. What do you use as your volatility or 53% Explicitly reference Bloomberg betas 73% Fundamental beta from Barra 100% Mention published sources
beta factor? 26% Use a published source (other than 44% Beta from Bloomberg
Bloomberg) or a third party advisors; 18% Self-calculated historical beta or
three of these mention Barra other published source
37% Mention self-calculated betas but some
may use Bloomberg for this
26% Mention comparisons across sources
(Continued)
Table II. General Survey Results (Continued)
Questions Corporations Financial Advisors Textbooks/Trade Books
11. What do you use as your market risk 43% Cite historical data only 73% Cite historical data—Ibbotson 100% Mention historical excess
premium? • 32% cite Ibbotson 18% Forward-looking DDM returns
• 11% mention another source 9% Use a “range”: No specific 50% Recommend arithmetic
methodology reported averages; 17% geometric
16% Judgment using various cited sources in some instances; 33% are
16% Bloomberg silent
16% Forward-looking calculation (other than 87% Mention various other
Bloomberg) approaches
5% Ask bank
5% No specific methodology reported
adjustments to reflect the risk of 33% Adjust for project risk and
individual investment opportunities? 5% Unsure
division
5% Decline to answer
33% Ignore the issue
Slightly less than half of “Noes” make
adjustments when deemed necessary but say
this is infrequent.
14. How frequently do you re-estimate 5% Monthly Not asked Not mentioned
your company’s cost of capital? 21% Quarterly
16% Semi-annually
53% Annually
5% Occasionally
Generally, many said that in addition to
scheduled reviews, they re-estimate as needed
for significant events such as acquisitions and
high-impact economic events.
7
(Continued)
8
Table II. General Survey Results (Continued)
Questions Corporations Financial Advisors Textbooks/Trade Books
15. Have financial market conditions 26% Yes 27% Yes One notes recent volatility as one
of the last few years caused you to 63% No 64% No reason practitioners use “target”
change the way you estimate and use weights rather than raw “market”
the cost of capital? 5% Unsure 9% No response weights when measuring capital
5% Not internally, but advising IBs have structure
made adjustments
16. Is the cost of capital used for purposes 42% Yes Not asked 67% Discuss in context of
other than project analysis in your 47% No performance measurement
company? (For example, to evaluate and EVA
divisional performance?) 5% Indirectly
33% Are silent
5% Decline to answer
17. Do you distinguish between strategic 68% Yes Not asked Not mentioned
and operational investments? Is cost 32% No
of capital used differently in these two
categories?
If do distinguish, is cost of capital used
differently (N=13):
23% Yes; 39% No; 30% Maybe; 5% N/A
18. What methods do you use to estimate Not asked 100% Both multiples and perpetual All recommend DCF equations.
terminal value? Do you use the same growth DCF model 50% recommend also using
discount rate for the terminal value as 55% Have no preference between models multiples and triangulating on
for the interim cash flows? value. There is no discussion
27% Prefer perpetuity model of differing discount rates for
18% Prefer multiples approach terminal value and interim cash
91% Use same WACC for TV flows.
(Continued)
Table II. General Survey Results (Continued)
Questions Corporations Financial Advisors Textbooks/Trade Books
20. In your valuations do you use any Not asked 82% Value cash flows differently when Not mentioned
different methods to value synergies warranted
or strategic opportunities (e.g., higher 73% Use a different discount rate for the
or lower discount rates, options risk
valuation)?
9% Use a different growth rate
21. How long have you been with the Years with firm: Range: 2-32; Mean: 15.2 Mean: 11.0 years (current bank) N/A
company? What is your job title? Years in finance: Range: 4-32; Mean: 18.5 Mean: 13.5 years (banking career)
1 Principal, 1 COO, 8 MD/D/EDs, 1 VP
All senior, except two
Brotherson et al. – “Best Practices” in Estimating the Cost of Capital: An Update
9
10 Journal of Applied Finance – No. 1, 2013
A. The Risk-free Rate of Return instance, 21% of the corporations and 36% of the financial
advisors resort to some historical average of interest rates
As originally derived, the CAPM is a single period rather than the spot rate in the markets. Such an averaging
model, so the question of which interest rate best represents practice is at odds with finance theory in which investors see
the risk-free rate never arises. In a multi-period world the current market rate as the relevant opportunity. We return
typically characterized by upward-sloping yield curves, the to this issue later in the paper.
practitioner must choose. The difference between realized
returns on short-term US Treasury-bills and long-term
B. Beta Estimates
T-bonds has averaged about 150 basis points over the long-
run; so choice of a risk-free rate can have a material effect on
Finance theory calls for a forward-looking beta, one
the cost of equity and WACC.9
reflecting investors’ uncertainty about the future cash flows
Treasury bill yields are more consistent with the CAPM
to equity. Because forward-looking betas are unobservable,
as originally derived and reflect risk-free returns in the
practitioners are forced to rely on proxies of various kinds.
sense that T-bill investors avoid material loss in value from
Often this involves using beta estimates derived from
interest rate movements. However, long-term bond yields
historical data.
more closely reflect the default-free holding period returns
The usual methodology is to estimate beta as the slope
available on long-lived investments and thus more closely
coefficient of the market model of returns:
mirror the types of investments made by companies.
Our survey results reveal a strong preference on the part of Rit = αi +βi (Rmt), (3)
practitioners for long-term bond yields. As shown in Table II
(Question 9), all the corporations and financial advisors use where:
Treasury bond yields for maturities of 10 years or greater, Rit = return on stock I in time period (e.g., day, week,
with the 10-year rate being the most popular choice. Many month) t.
corporations said they matched the term of the risk-free Rmt = return on the market portfolio in period t.
rate to the tenor of the investment. In contrast, a third of the αi = regression constant for stock i.
sample books suggested subtracting a term premium from βi = beta for stock i.
long-term rates to approximate a shorter term yield. Half of
the books recommended long-term rates but were not precise In addition to relying on historical data, use of this
on the choice of maturity. equation to estimate beta requires a number of practical
Because the yield curve is ordinarily relatively flat compromises, each of which can materially affect the results.
beyond ten years, the choice of which particular long- For instance, increasing the number of time periods used in
term yield to use often is not a critical one. However, at the the estimation may improve the statistical reliability of the
time of our survey, Treasury markets did not display these estimate but risks including stale, irrelevant information.
“normal” conditions in the wake of the financial crisis and Similarly, shortening the observation period from monthly
expansionary monetary policy. In the year we conducted our to weekly, or even daily, increases the size of the sample but
survey (2012), the spread between 10- and 30-year Treasury may yield observations that are not normally distributed and
yields averaged 112 basis points.10 While the text and trade may introduce unwanted random noise. A third compromise
books do not directly address the question of how to deal involves choice of the market index. Theory dictates that
with such markets, it is clear that some practitioners are Rm is the return on the “market portfolio,” an unobservable
looking for ways to “normalize” what they see as unusual portfolio consisting of all risky assets, including human
circumstances in the government bond markets. For capital and other non-traded assets, in proportion to their
importance in world wealth. Beta providers use a variety
9
This was estimated as the difference in arithmetic mean returns on long-
of stock market indices as proxies for the market portfolio
term government bonds and US Treasury bills over the years 1900 to 2008, on the argument that stock markets trade claims on a
using data from E. Dimson and P. Marsh as cited in Brealey, Myers, and sufficiently wide array of assets to be adequate surrogates
Allen (2011) in Table 7.1 at page 158. for the unobservable market portfolio.
Another approach is to “predict” beta based on underlying
10
Over the period 1977-2012 the difference between the yields on 10- and
30-year Treasury bonds averaged 29 basis points. However, for the period characteristics of a company. According to Barra, the
after the financial crisis this spread has been much higher in the midst of “predicted beta, the beta Barra derives from its risk model,
expansive Federal Reserve policy. For the period 2008-2012 the difference is a forecast of a stock’s sensitivity to the market. It is also
averaged 103 basis points. During 2012 when we conducted our survey
known as fundamental beta because it is derived from
it averaged 112 basis points. As we write in mid-January 2013, the yields
on 10-, 20-, and 30-year Treasury bonds are 1.89%, 2.66%, and 3.06% fundamental risk factors…. such as size, yield, and volatility
respectively. Calculations use Federal Reserve H-15 interest rate data. — plus industry exposure. Because we re-estimate these
Brotherson et al. – “Best Practices” in Estimating the Cost of Capital: An Update 11
Table III. Compromises Underlying Beta Estimates and Their Effect on Estimated Betas of
Sample Companies
Bloomberg* Value Line* Barra
Number of observations 102 260 statistical models using
Time interval weekly over 2 yrs. weekly over 5 yrs. company characteristics
Market index proxy S&P 500 NYSE composite
“We use Bloomberg’s default calculation. We take special care to support beta chosen if doing an acquisition or major investment.”
“We use Bloomberg (both historical and historical adjusted) plus Barra and calibrate based on comparing the results.”
“We use our beta and check against those of competitors. We unlever the peers and then relever to our capital structure. The results come
pretty close to our own beta, so that's confirming.”
“We use the median beta of comparable companies, based on analysis of size and business. We have a third party identify comparable
companies and betas.”
We use Barra and Bloomberg and triangulate based on those numbers. The problem comes up for getting a pure play for a division or a
company that hasn’t been public for a long time. We then have to pick comparable companies.”
"Each line of business has its own peer group of companies and cost of capital. Using five-year betas from Bloomberg, we find an average
unlevered beta for the peer group and then relever to our corporate-wide capital structure.”
risk factors daily, the predicted beta reflects changes in the C. Equity Market Risk Premium
company’s underlying risk structure in a timely manner.”11
This topic prompted the greatest variety of responses
Table III shows the compromises underlying the beta
among survey participants. Finance theory says the equity
estimates of three prominent providers (Bloomberg, Value
market risk premium should equal the excess return
Line and Barra) and their combined effect on the beta
expected by investors on the market portfolio relative to
estimates of our sample companies. The mean beta of our
riskless assets. How one measures expected future returns
sample companies is similar from all providers, 0.96 from
on the market portfolio and on riskless assets is a problem
Bloomberg, 0.93 according to Value Line, and 0.91 from
left to practitioners. Because expected future returns are
Barra. On the other hand, the averages mask differences for
unobservable, past surveys of practice have routinely
individual companies. Table IV provides a complete list of
revealed a wide array of choices for the market risk premium.
sample betas by provider.
For instance, Fernandez, Aguirreamalloa, and Corres (2011)
Over half of the corporations in our sample (Table II,
survey professors, analysts and companies on what they
Question 10) cite Bloomberg as the source for their beta
use as a US market risk premium. Of those who reported a
estimates, and some of the 37% that say they calculate
reference to justify their choice, the single most mentioned
their own may use Bloomberg data and programs. 26% of
source was Ibbotson/Morningstar, but even among those
the companies cite some other published source and 26%
citing this reference, there was a wide dispersion of market
explicitly compare a number of beta sources before making
risk premium estimates used. Carleton and Lakonishok
a final choice. Among financial advisors, there is strong
(1985) demonstrate empirically some of the problems with
reliance on fundamental betas with 89% of the advisors
such historical premiums when they are disaggregated for
using Barra as a source. Many advisors (44%) also use
different time periods or groups of firms. Dimson, Marsh,
Bloomberg. About a third of both companies and financial
and Staunton (2011a, 2011b) discuss evidence from an array
advisors mentioned levering and unlevering betas even
of markets around the globe.
though we did not ask them for this information. And in
How do our best practice companies cope? Among
response to a question about using data from other firms
financial advisors, 73% extrapolate historical returns into
(Table II, Question 12), the majority of companies and all
the future on the presumption that past experience heavily
advisors take advantage of data on comparable companies to
conditions future expectations. Among companies, 43%
inform their estimates of beta and capital costs.12
cite historical data and another 16% use various sources
Within these broad categories, the comments in Table
inclusive of historical data. Unlike the results of our earlier
V indicate that a number of survey participants use more
study (1998) in which historical returns were used by all
pragmatic approaches which combine published beta
companies and advisors, we found a number of respondents
estimates or adjust published estimates in various heuristic
(18% of financial advisors and 32% of companies) using
ways.
forward-looking estimates of the market risk premium. The
11
Barra (2007) on page 18. The actual quote from 2007 mentions monthly advisors cited versions of the dividend discount model. The
updating. In obtaining Barra data, we learned that updates are now daily companies used a variety of methods including Bloomberg’s
so have substituted that in the quotes since we did not find an updated version of the dividend discount model.13
reference.
12
Conroy and Harris (2011) compare the impacts of various approaches to 13
In our conversations, company respondents sometimes noted they used
using comparable company data to estimate the cost of capital for firms in the Bloomberg estimate of the market risk premium but did not have
the S&P 500. detailed knowledge of the calculation. As described by Bloomberg, their
Brotherson et al. – “Best Practices” in Estimating the Cost of Capital: An Update 13
Table VI. Historical Averages to Estimate the Equity Market Risk Premium, (Rm - Rf)
Figures are the annual average risk premium calculated over the period 1926-2011 based on data drawn from Table II-I, Ibbotson (2012),
where the Rm was drawn from the “Large Company Stocks” series, and Rf drawn from the “Long-Term Government Bonds” and “US
Treasury Bills” series.
Relative to Relative to
T-Bill Returns T-Bond Returns
Arithmetic Mean 8.2% 5.7%
Geometric Mean 6.0% 3.9%
Even when historical returns are used to estimate the data from outside the US For instance, Dimson, Marsh, and
market risk premium, a host of differences emerge including Staunton (2011a) provide estimates of historical equity risk
what data to use and what method to use for averaging. For premiums for a number of different countries since 1900.
instance, a leading textbook cites US historical data back Since our respondents all used longer-term Treasuries as
to 1900 from Dimson and Staunton (as cited by Brealey, their risk-free rate, the right-most column of Table VI most
Myers, and Allen (2011), p.158) while 73% of our financial closely fits that choice. Even when respondents explicitly
advisors cite Ibbotson data which traces US history back to referenced the arithmetic or geometric mean of historical
1926. Among companies, only 32% explicitly cite Ibbotson returns, many rounded the figure or used other data to adjust
as their main reference for data and 11% cite other historical their final choice. The net result is a wide array of choices
sources.14 for the market risk premium. For respondents who provided
Even using the same data, another chief difference was a numerical figure (Table II, Question 11), the average for
in their use of arithmetic versus geometric averages. The companies was 6.49%, very close to the average of 6.6%
arithmetic mean return is the simple average of past returns. from financial advisors. These averages mask considerable
Assuming the distribution of returns is stable over time and variation in both groups. We had responses as low as 4%
that periodic returns are independent of one another, the and as high as 9%. The 4% value is in line with the Ibbotson
arithmetic return is the best estimator of expected return. The (2012) historical figures using the geometric mean spread
geometric mean return is the internal rate of return between a between stocks and long-term government bonds. The upper
single outlay and one or more future receipts. It measures the end of 9 percent comes from forward-looking estimates
compound rate of return investors earned over past periods. done in 2012 when US financial markets reflected a very low
It accurately portrays historical investment experience. interest rate environment.16 We add a word of caution in how
Unless returns are the same each time period, the geometric to interpret some of the differences we found in the market
average will always be less than the arithmetic average and risk premium since the ultimate cost of capital calculation
the gap widens as returns become more volatile.15 depends on the joint choice of a risk premium, the risk-free
Based on Ibbotson data (2012) from 1926 to 2011, Table rate and beta. We return to this issue when we illustrate
VI illustrates the possible range of equity market risk potential differences in the cost of capital.
premiums depending on use of the geometric as opposed As shown in Table VII, comments in our interviews
to the arithmetic mean equity return and on use of realized exemplify the diversity among survey participants. This
returns on T-bills as opposed to T-bonds. Even wider variety of practice displays the challenge of application
variations in market risk premiums can arise when one since theory calls for a forward-looking risk premium, one
changes the historical period for averaging or decides to use that reflects current market sentiment and may change with
market conditions. What is clear is that there is substantial
estimates of country risk premiums are based on projections of future variation as practitioners try to operationalize the theoretical
dividends in a multistage dividend discount model. At the time of our call for a market risk premium. And, as is clear in some
survey, the US country risk premium from Bloomberg was in the range of the respondent comments, volatility in markets has
of 8-9%, well above averages from historical returns. See Harris and
Marston (2001, 2013) for discussion of changing risk premiums over time. made the challenge even harder. Compared to our earlier
study (1998) in which respondents almost always applied
14
With only minor exceptions, our respondents used US data rather than historical averages, current practice shows a wider variation
rely on global indices for both their estimates of beta and the market in approach and considerable judgment. This situation
risk premium. Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton (2011a) discuss historical
estimates of the market risk premium using data from many countries.
points the way for valuable future research on the market
risk premium.
15
See Brealey, Myers, and Allen (2011), pages 158-159 for the argument
to support use of an arithmetic mean. For large samples of returns, the
geometric average can be approximated as the arithmetic average minus 16
Harris and Marston (2001, 2013) discuss evidence that the market risk
one half the variance of realized returns. premium is inversely related to interest rates.
14 Journal of Applied Finance – No. 1, 2013
“We take an average of arithmetic mean and geometric mean for equity risk premium.”
“5.5% - 6.5%. Reflects a judgmental synthesis of various academic views and financial market perspectives.”
“Estimate a forward-looking risk premium. Use a methodology that incorporates S&P P/E ratio. It is a more volatile metric than using a
historical risk premium. Use historicals as a sanity check.”
“6.5-7%. We ask several banks how we compare to comparable companies, including comparable size and industry.”
“Use the long-term (1926-2011) Ibbotson's S&P 500 premium over the risk-free rate.”
Comments from financial advisors also were revealing. While some simply responded that they use a published historical average, others
presented a more complex picture.
"We used to apply the geometric mean, and then we switched to arithmetic. Now we use 4.6 - 6.6%, so we'll show for both ends of that
distribution. Based mainly on Ibbotson, but may add to that for emerging market companies.”
“Forward-looking estimate using dividend discount model…bank's proprietary model, which is forward-looking and uses S&P price
level, plus projections and payout to get an implied cost of equity”
IV. The Impact of Various Assumptions for stream of $10 million would range between $117 million
Using CAPM and $218 million for Target, and between $109 million and
$151 million for UPS.
To illustrate the effect of these various practices on Given the positive yield curve in early 2013, the variations
estimated capital costs, we mechanically selected the two in our illustration are explained by choices for all three
sample companies with the largest and smallest range of elements in applying the CAPM: the risk-free rate, beta, and
beta estimates in Table IV. We estimated the hypothetical the equity market premium assumption. Moreover, we note
cost of equity and WACC for Target Corporation, which that use of a 10-year Treasury rate in these circumstances
has the widest range in estimated betas, and for UPS which leads to quite low cost of capital estimates if one sticks to
has the smallest range. Our estimates are “hypothetical” in traditional risk premium estimates often found in textbooks
that we do not adopt any information supplied to us by the which are in the range of 6%. From talking to our respondents,
companies and financial advisors but rather apply a range we sense that many are struggling with how to deal with
of approaches based on publicly available information as current market conditions that do not fit typical historical
of early 2013. Table VIII gives Target’s estimated costs of norms, a topic we discuss in more detail in Section VI.
equity and WACCs under various combinations of risk-
free rate, beta, and market risk premiums. Three clusters
of possible practice are illustrated, each in turn using betas V. Risk Adjustments to WACC
as provided by Bloomberg, Value Line, and Barra. The first
approach, adopted by a number of our respondents, uses a Finance theory is clear that the discount rate should rise
10-year T-bond yield and a risk premium of 6.5% (roughly and fall in concert with an investment’s risk and that a firm’s
the average response from both companies and financial WACC is an appropriate discount rate only for average-risk
advisors). The second approach also uses a 6.5% risk investments by the firm. High-risk, new ventures should
premium but moves to a 30-year rate to proxy the long-term face higher discount rates, while replacement and repair
interest rate. The third method uses the ten-year Treasury investments should face lower ones. Attracting capital
rate but a risk premium of 9%, consistent with what some requires that prospective return increase with risk. Most
adopters of a forward-looking risk premium applied. We practitioners accept this reasoning but face two problems
repeated these general procedures for UPS when applying it. First, it is often not clear precisely how much
The resulting ranges of estimated WACCs for the two a given investment’s risk differs from average, and second,
firms are as follows: even when this amount is known, it is still not obvious how
Maximum Minimum Difference in large an increment should be added to, or subtracted from,
WACC WACC Basis Points the firm’s WACC to determine the appropriate discount rate.
Target 8.58% 4.58% 400 We probed the extent to which respondents alter
discount rates to reflect risk differences in questions about
UPS 9.17% 6.62% 255
variations in project risk, strategic investments, terminal
The range from minimum to maximum is considerable for values, multidivisional companies, and synergies (Table II,
both firms, and the economic impact potentially stunning. To Questions 13 and 17-20). Responses indicate that the great
illustrate this, the present value of a level perpetual annual preponderance of financial advisors and text authors strongly
Brotherson et al. – “Best Practices” in Estimating the Cost of Capital: An Update 15
Table VIII. Variations in Cost of Capital (WACC) Estimates for Target Corporation
Using Different Methods of Implementing the Capital Asset Pricing Model
Data are as of January 22, 2013. The CAPM is used to estimate the cost of equity. Interest rates are from Bloomberg and the Federal
Reserve. The cost of debt is assumed to be 4.21% (average of Aaa and Baa yields). We approximated the capital structure and tax rate
using the market value of equity and the most recent financial statements, yielding debt as 32% of capital and a 34% tax rate.
favor varying the discount rate to capture differences in risk is available about rates and prices. Correspondingly, virtually
(Table II, Questions 13, 19, and 20). Corporations, on the all advisors questioned value multi-division businesses by
other hand, are more evenly split, with a sizeable minority parts when the divisions differed materially in size and risk,
electing not to adjust discount rates for risk differences and over 90% are prepared to use separate division WACCs
among individual projects (Table II, Questions 13 and 17). to reflect risk differences. Similarly, 82% of advisors value
Comparing these results with our earlier study, it is worth merger synergies and strategic opportunities separately from
noting that while only about half of corporate respondents operating cash flows, and 73% are prepared to use different
adjust discount rates for risk, this figure is more than discount rates when necessary on the various cash flows.
double the percentage reported in 1998. Despite continuing There is a long history of empirical research on how
hesitance, companies are apparently becoming more shareholder returns vary across firm size, leading some
comfortable with explicit risk adjustments to discount rates. academics to suggest that a small cap premium should
A closer look at specific responses suggests that be added to the calculated cost of capital for such firms.17
respondents’ enthusiasm for risk-adjusting discount rates Our study focuses on large public companies, so it is not
depends on the quality of the data available. Text authors
live in a largely data-free world and thus have no qualms 17
Banz (1981) and Renganum (1981) first identified that firms with smaller
recommending risk adjustments whenever appropriate. market capitalization had earned higher average returns than stocks
Financial advisors are a bit more constrained. They regularly generally and higher than those predicted even if one adjusts for risk using
the CAPM. Fama and French (1992) identify size as a critical factor in
confront real-world data, but their mission is often to value explaining differences in returns. Pratt and Grabowski (2010) discuss size
companies or divisions where extensive market information adjustments and the use of Ibbotson data on size groupings.
16 Journal of Applied Finance – No. 1, 2013
When asked whether they adjusted discount rates for project risk, companies provided a wide range of responses.
“Yes, but [the process] is fairly ad hoc. There’s not a formal number.”
“We don’t risk adjust, [but] we make sure we’re on target by using sensitivity analysis and checking key assumptions.”
“For new deals, we add 20% to the cost of capital.”
“Yes, we make adjustments for different countries.”
“We make subjective adjustments [to our discount rate] for new technologies or products or customers, all of which carry more uncertainty.”
“We use a hurdle rate that is intentionally higher than our WACC. Recent WACC has been 9.64% and the hurdle rate is 15%, and then we
add qualitative considerations for the final decision.”
“Generally no further adjustments are made unless specifics are identified at the project level that would be very different risk. For
instance, a contractual cash flow might be treated as a debt equivalent cash flow and given a lower discount rate.”
surprising that firm responses do not reveal any such small on comparable companies inform division cost of capital
cap adjustments. In contrast, financial advisors work with a estimates. Debt markets provide surrogates for the risks
wide spectrum of companies and are thus more likely to be in leasing cash flows, and international financial markets
sensitive to the issue—as indeed they are. Among financial shed light on cross-country risk differences. When no such
advisors interviewed, 91% said they would at times increase benchmarks exist, practitioners look to other more informal
the discount rate when evaluating small companies. Of methods for dealing with risk. In our view, then, practical
those who did make size adjustments, half mentioned using use of risk-adjusted discount rates occurs when the analyst
Ibbotson (2012) data which show differences in past returns can find reliable market data indicating how comparable-
among firms of different size. The adjustment process varied risk cash flows are being valued by others.
among advisors, as the following illustrative quotes suggest. The same pragmatic perspective was evident when we
“Adjustments are discretionary, but we tend to adjust for asked companies how frequently they re-estimated their
extreme size.” “We have used a small cap premium, but capital costs (Table II, Question 14). Even among firms
we don’t have a set policy to make adjustments. It is fairly that re-estimate costs frequently, there was reluctance to
subjective.” “We apply a small cap premium only for micro- alter the underlying methodology employed or to revise
cap companies.” “We use a small cap premium for $300 the way they use the number in decision making. Firms
million and below.” also appear sensitive to administrative costs, evidencing
In important ways corporate executives face a more reluctance to make small adjustments but prepared to revisit
complex task than financial advisors or academics. the numbers at any time in anticipation of major decisions
They must routinely evaluate investments in internal or in response to financial market upheavals. Benchmark
opportunities, and new products and technologies, for which companies recognize a certain ambiguity in any cost number
objective, third party information is nonexistent. Moreover, and are willing to live with approximations. While the bond
they work in an administrative setting where decision rights market reacts to minute basis point changes in interest rates,
are widely dispersed, with headquarters defining procedures investments in real assets involve much less precision,
and estimating discount rates, and various operating people due largely to greater uncertainty, decentralized decision-
throughout the company analyzing different aspects of a making, and time consuming decision processes. As noted in
given project. As Table IX reveals, these complexities lead Table X, one respondent evidences an extreme tolerance for
to a variety of creative approaches to dealing with risk. rough estimates in saying that the firm re-estimates capital
A number of respondents describe making discount rate costs every quarter, but has used 10% for a long time because
adjustments to distinguish among divisional capital costs, it “seems to have been successful so far.” Our interpretation
international as opposed to domestic investments, and is that the mixed responses to questions about risk adjusting
leased versus purchased assets. In other instances, however, and re-estimating discount rates reflect an often sophisticated
respondents indicated they hold the discount rate constant set of practical considerations. Chief among them are the
and deal with risk in more qualitative ways, sometimes by size of the risk differences among investments, the volume
altering the project cash flows being discounted. and quality of information available from financial markets,
Why do corporations risk-adjust discount rates in some and the realities of administrative costs and processes.
settings and use different, often more ad hoc, approaches in When conditions warrant, practitioners routinely employ
others? Our interpretation is that risk-adjusted discount rates risk adjustments in project appraisal. Acquisitions, valuing
are more likely to be used when the analyst can establish divisions and cross-border investments, and leasing
relatively objective financial market benchmarks for what decisions were frequently cited examples. In contrast, when
the risk adjustment should be. At the division level, data conditions are not favorable, practitioners are more likely
Brotherson et al. – “Best Practices” in Estimating the Cost of Capital: An Update 17
“[We re-estimate] annually unless a fundamental event that is a game changer occurs, such as the banking crisis in 2008.”
“[We re-estimate] once a year around May since this is right before impairment testing.”
“We re-estimate twice a year and for special events such as a major acquisition.”
“We calculate the hurdle rate each year. We try to avoid any changes less than plus or minus 25 basis points.”
“Formally, we re-estimate our cost of capital every quarter, but generally we have used 10% for a long time, which seems to have been
successful so far.”
Table XI. Judgments Related to Financial Market Conditions
Some of our best practice companies and advisors noted that their choice of a risk-free rate attempted to remove any unusual conditions
they saw in current market yields. We asked "What do you use for a risk-free rate?" and heard the following:
"20-year US government bonds. If it seems to be unusually high or low, we may use a trailing average or other modified number.”
“Use a five-year rolling average in order to smooth out volatility associated with current/recent market trends.”
“Historically had used the spot rate yield to maturity on 10-year government bonds, but more recently have changed to thinking about
factors driving government interest rates, so we have moved away from the spot rate and toward the average yield over last 10 years.”
to rely on cruder capital cost estimates and cope with risk Others pointed to the low interest rate environment
differences by other means. resulting from Federal Reserve policies to stimulate the US
economy. Combining low interest rates and typical historical
VI. Recent Institutional and Market risk premiums created capital cost estimates that some
Developments practitioners viewed as “too low.” One company was so
distrustful of market signals that it placed an arbitrary eight
As discussed in the prior section, our interviews reveal percent floor under any cost of capital estimate, noting that
that the practice of cost of capital estimation is shaped “since 2008, as rates have decreased so drastically, we don’t
by forces that go beyond considerations found in usual feel that [the estimate] represents a long-term cost of capital.
academic treatments of the topic. A feature that was more Now we don’t report anything below 8% as a minimum [cost
pronounced than in our prior study is the influence of a wide of capital].”
array of stakeholders. For instance, a number of companies Among the minority who did revise their estimation
voiced that any change in estimation methods would raise procedures to cope with these market forces, one change was
red flags with auditors looking for process consistency in to put more reliance on historical numbers when estimating
key items such as impairment estimates. Some advisors interest rates as indicated in Table XI. This is in sharp contrast
mentioned similar concerns, citing their work in venues to both finance theory and what we found in our prior study.
where consistency and precedent were major considerations Such rejection of spot rates in favor of historical averages
(e.g. fairness opinions, legal settings). Moreover, some or arbitrary numbers is inconsistent with the academic view
companies noted that they “outsourced” substantial parts of that historical data do not accurately reflect current attitudes
their estimation to advisors or data providers. These items in competitive markets. The academic challenge today is to
serve as a reminder that the art of cost of capital estimation better articulate the extent to which the superiority of spot
and its use are part of a larger process of management—not rates still applies when markets are highly volatile and when
simply an application of finance theory. governments are aggressively attempting to lower rates
The financial upheaval in 2008-2009 provided a natural through such initiatives as quantitative easing.
test of respondents’ commitment to existing cost of Another change in estimation methods since our earlier
capital estimation methodologies and applications. When study is reflected in the fact that more companies are using
confronted with a major external shock, did companies make forward-looking risk premiums as we reported earlier and
wholesale changes or did they keep to existing practices? illustrated in Table VII. Since the forward-looking premiums
When we asked companies and advisors if financial market cited by our respondents were higher than historical risk
conditions in 2008-2009 caused them to change the way they premiums, they mitigated or offset to some degree the
estimate and use the cost of capital (Table II, Question 15), impact of low interest rates on estimated capital costs.18
over three-fifths replied “No.” In the main, then, there was
not a wholesale change in methods. That said, a number of 18
Pratt and Grabowski (2010) provide a discussion of estimating forward
respondents noted discomfort with cost of capital estimation looking risk premiums. Harris and Marston (2001, 2013) discuss evidence
in recent years. Some singled out high volatility in markets. that the market risk premium is inversely related to interest rates.
18 Journal of Applied Finance – No. 1, 2013
business judgment. Second, be careful not to throw out the finance people cannot provide a precise number. When in
baby with the bath water. Do not reject the cost of capital and need, even a blunt ax is better than nothing.n
attendant advances in financial management because your
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