Cities 31 (2013) 105–113

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Cities
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Agent-based modeling of urban land-use development, case study: Simulating

future scenarios of Qazvin city
Farhad Hosseinali a,⇑, Ali A. Alesheikh a,1, Farshad Nourian b,2
a
Faculty of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, K.N. Toosi University of Technology, ValiAsr Street, Mirdamad Cross, 19967-15433 Tehran, Iran
b
School of Urban Planning, University of Tehran, Enghelab Avenue, 14155-6135 Tehran, Iran

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Urban land-use development is a problematic phenomenon in developing countries. Modeling this phe-
Received 31 March 2012 nomenon is of considerable interest to urban planners and city managers. Several methods have been
Received in revised form 3 July 2012 developed to simulate the dynamics of land-use changes. However, the complexity of urban growth is
Accepted 6 September 2012
considered a factor that impedes the usefulness of such simulation methods. Among the available meth-
Available online 6 October 2012
ods, those considered ‘‘agent-based models’’ have found popularity in simulating land-use development
and urban sprawl modeling. These methods use a dynamic bottom-up approach with the actors in land-
Keywords:
use development as their basic components.
Urban land-use development
Agent-based modeling
In this paper, a new agent-based model is introduced. This model is equipped with new methods for
Development policy modeling the movements of agents and competition among agents. The model is used to simulate urban
Qazvin land-use development in the Qazvin province of Iran, which covers an area of 36  45 km. The model is
first calibrated with existing data and is then used to predict future land-use development. To test devel-
opment policies, four scenarios are defined. The first scenario reflects the current pattern of development,
which is evaluated using the calibrated model. The second and third scenarios examine different policies,
including those that act as ‘‘incentive’’ strategies and those that are ‘‘punitive.’’ The fourth scenario
focuses on changes to the demographic population of agents. The results reveal that the current trend
in urban growth tends to be dispersed in the study area. However, different policies tend to produce dif-
ferent results: in areas in which an incentive policy is in place, 140 clusters of development were
detected, while in areas in which a punitive policy is in place, 180 clusters were detected. The incentive
strategy is concluded to be more successful than the punitive strategy in reducing the dispersion of devel-
opment. Change in the population demography is observed to be more efficient in areas of development
than in those of dispersion.
Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introduction 349,821 in 2006 (Statistical Centre of Iran). During the past

As a developing country, Iran is now witnessing continual large-
scale urbanization (Rafiee, Salman Mahiny, Khorasani, Darvishse-
fat, & Danekar, 2009). The number of towns and cities in Iran has
also increased significantly, from a total of 199 towns in 1956–
1200 in 2012 (Statistical Centre of Iran).
This rapid urbanization pattern can be seen in most major cities
in Iran. As an example, the city of Qazvin, an ancient city located
150 km west of Tehran, has witnessed rapid growth both in size
and population in the last two decades (Housing and Urban Devel-
opment Organization of Qazvin). As an industrial and agricultural
city, the city’s population increased from 291,117 in 1996 to
⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +98 21 8878 6212; fax: +98 21 8878 6213.
E-mail addresses: frdhal@gmail.com (F. Hosseinali), alesheikh@kntu.ac.ir (A.A.
Alesheikh), fnoorian@ut.ac.ir (F. Nourian).
1
Tel.: +98 21 8878 6212; fax: +98 21 8878 6213.
2
Tel.: +98 21 8896 2743.
50 years, a number of formal and informal settlements have also
formed around the city. Our study area covers the city of Qazvin it-
self and five other towns as well as a number of villages and indus-
trial settlements.
The rapid expansion of residential land-use endangers agricul-
ture and environmental resources. Hence, simulation of urban
land-use change and development is vitally important for munici-
palities responsible for planning for the future.
Simulation provides users with practical feedback when plan-
ning real-world systems (Zhang, Ban, Liu, & Hu, 2011). This allows
planners to determine the suitability and efficiency of a plan before
the plan is implemented. A simulation is defined here as a process
of changing one or more variables in a model and observing the
resulting developments (Banks, Carson, Nelson, & Nicol, 2004).
Simulation also allows planners and city managers to study a prob-
lem at several different levels of abstraction. By approaching a sys-
tem at a higher level of abstraction, planners are better equipped to

0264-2751/$ - see front matter Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2012.09.002
106 F. Hosseinali et al. / Cities 31 (2013) 105–113
understand the behaviors and interactions of all of the high-level
components within the system and are therefore prepared to coun-
teract the complexity of the overall system (Santé, García, Miranda,
& Crecente, 2010).
Simulation of land-use development can potentially represent
the consequences of current planning policies. Without using mod-
els that embrace the complexity of the urban system, it would be
difficult to simulate and predict the future of urban growth (Batty,
2005).
Urban land-use development is one of the most profound hu-
man-induced alterations in the Earth’s system (Le, Park, Vlek, & Cre-
mers, 2008; Vitousek, Mooney, Lubchenco, & Melillo, 1997). The
changes that occur in land-use due to urbanization promote a com-
plex process caused by the interaction between natural and social
systems at different spatial scales (Rindfuss, Walsh, Turner, Fox, &
Mishra, 2004; Valbuena, Verburg, & Bregt, 2008). Traditionally,
two approaches have been proposed to characterize and under-
stand these changes: (1) a bottom-up, anthropological, process-ori-
ented approach based on household surveys and a resource base
inventory and (2) a top-down, land evaluation, pattern-oriented ap-
proach based on remote sensing and census data (Geoghegan et al.,
1998). Another group of models has recently emerged and gained
popularity in the urban-related scientific community. These models
use the real actors of land-use change (individual or institutions) as
objects of analysis and of simulations, and pay explicit attention to
interactions among these ‘‘agents.’’ Therefore, such models are
commonly referred to as agent-based models (Castella & Verburg,
2007). Several characteristics define agents: they are autonomous,
they share an environment through agent communication and
interaction, and they make decisions that tie their behavior to the
environment. Agents have been used to represent a wide variety
of entities, including atoms, animals, cars, people, biological cells
and organizations (Conte, Hegselmann, & Terna, 1997; Epstein, Ax-
tell, & Project, 1996; Parker, Manson, Janssen, Hoffmann, & Dead-
man, 2003; Robinson et al., 2007; Weiss, 1999). Agents make
inductive and evolving choices that move them toward achieving
goals (Parker et al., 2003; Wooldridge, 2009).
The aim of this research is to simulate urban land-use develop-
ment using a newly developed agent-based model. Simulation of
land-use development has been conducted using a variety of mod-
els, such as artificial neural networks (ANNs), cellular automata
(CA) and regression (Batty, Xie, & Sun, 1999; Hu & Lo, 2007; Parker
et al., 2003; Pijanowski, Tayyebi, Delavar, & Yazdanpanah, 2009).
Some packaged agent-based or CA models are also available. For
instance, Rafiee and his colleagues calibrated the SLEUTH model
to simulate future urban growth in Mashad, Iran (Rafiee et al.,
2009). SLUCE is another package widely used in this field (Brown
et al., 2008). Nevertheless, our efforts were directed toward con-
structing a more flexible model able to mimic the process of
land-use development in Iran. The flexibility of our model may al-
low it to be used in other countries.
We propose an approach that integrates land-use factors into an
agent-based model for modeling future urban land-use scenarios.
The model was calibrated with existing data and then a 20-year
simulation was run, covering the period of 2010–2030. The goals
of this model are to predict future land-use development under
existing spatial policies to produce alternative planning and policy
scenarios, and to compare these alternative scenarios in terms of
their effects on future land-use development. Four scenarios are
defined in this paper. The first scenario is in line with the current
calibrated trend of urban development. The second scenario in-
volves modifying the values of criterion maps that are used to in-
put spatial data. In this scenario, ‘‘incentive’’ policies are used.
The third scenario is similar to the second but the modification
of the values of criterion maps is performed using ‘‘punitive’’ mea-
sures. The fourth scenario involves using the change in the demo-
graphics of the agents. GIS, a versatile system and science for
dealing with spatial data (Longley, 2005; Sabet Sarvestani, Ibrahim,
& Kanaroglou, 2011), was used to help us collect spatial data, pre-
pare proper maps and present the results.
Methodology
In our model, the agents represent land-use developers who
move in the landscape seeking appropriate cells (i.e., parcels of
land) to develop. The model mimics the mechanism of searching
for and developing land in Iran. However, this may also be the case
in many other countries. The agents are categorized into five groups
with different aims (discussed in the next section). The develop-
ment is divided into separate stages. Each stage corresponds to a
year. In each year, the mobile agents search the landscape and re-
cord the state of the cells they visited (searching stage, Fig. 1). Next,
they decide to develop the most appropriate cells among those that
they visited (developing stage, Fig. 2). In the developing stage, some
cells may simultaneously be chosen for development by more than
one agent. In such cases, the agents compete and the winner of the
competition develops that particular cell.
The details of the model are explained below.
Criteria for selection of a target location
Many researchers have considered various factors representing
decision-making criteria of agents to select targets for develop-
ment (Matthews, Gilbert, Roach, Polhill, & Gotts, 2007; Parker
et al., 2003). Nevertheless, residential decision criteria, such as
the household stage in a life cycle, the price of property, the demo-
graphic structure of neighborhood, and public transportation, do
not account more than 20–30% of development choice (Benenson
& Torrens, 2004). Consequently, some researchers have stated that
traditional micro-simulation modeling, which uses such databases
extensively, does not account for interdependencies among the
decision factors (Benenson & Torrens, 2004; Waddell, 2002). Thus,
three criterion maps, namely, attractiveness, accessibility and land
value, were used in this research (Figs. 5 and 7). The framework
considers the landscape as a raster space on which agents act for
developing particular cells. Each cell can be developed or not
developed; therefore, each agent should assess the undeveloped
areas and decide where to develop.
Agent classes and their characteristics
The categorization of agents takes place by considering the sit-
uations and goals of land-use developers. This categorization is
similar to that performed by Loibl and Toetzer (2003), but has been
modified to match the conditions of the executing environment in
Iran. Thus, the agents are categorized into the following five types:
1. Young persons with moderate income who look for fairly
affordable cells with good accessibility.
2. High-income developers seeking valuable land with acceptable
attractiveness.
3. The affluent who desire highly attractive cells for recreational
residence.
4. Low-income people who search for the least expensive cells.
5. Moderate-to high-income people who consider the three crite-
ria of land value, accessibility and attractiveness to have the
same weight.
In addition to its type, each agent has a location in a cell of the
landscape, limited movement, a minimum required location
change (jump) in a district, and a number of districts to search.
 F. Hosseinali et al. / Cities 31 (2013) 105–113 107

Start Randomly select a search district (based on the probability of selection)

Selecting the region of search in the district

Assessing the adjacent cells and moving to the best one

N
Is the search finished in the region?
Go to
Developing Y
stage N
Is the search finished in the district?

Y
Sorting the visited N Y
Should another district be searched?
cells

Fig. 1. Flowchart of the model in the searching stage.

Start Choose one agent randomly

Pick the top scoring cell

Register the number Y Have other agents

Register a conflict
of request for the cell chosen that cell?

N
Register the number of request for the cell
Winner
Determine winner and
loser(s) of competition Develop the cell and register the type of
developer

Loser(s)
Delete the agent from the list of agents
Increase Frustration

Is there any other cell Y Y

Is there any
in the investment list? unsatisfied agent?

N N
Register dissatisfaction

Delete the agent from the list of agents End

Fig. 2. Flowchart of the model in the developing stage.

Distribution of agents in the landscape
At the initialization of the model, the maps are uploaded into
the model, the parameters are set, and the agents are created. First,
the agents must be located in the landscape. The landscape is not
likely to be a homogeneous area, and different districts can often
be searched. Thus, the agents begin their search by choosing a dis-
trict. Districts have different chances of selection by different types
of agents, based on the districts’ characteristics and the agents’ de-
sires. The selection of a district is performed randomly, referring to
the chosen probability distribution P ki for each agent, where k is the
type of agent and i is the district.
The cells adjacent to those that are already developed are
potentially subject to urbanization. Thus, in each district, the
agents first go to the cells adjacent to currently developed areas.
Once the agents find their locations in the landscape, each agent
moves around, and after a limited amount of movement, changes
its location (jumps) to another position in the same district. The
agents only traverse the undeveloped cells. The agents might also
change their districts and conduct the same activities in the new
ones.
Agents’ movements
Wherever the agent starts, it assesses the state of the current
(standing) cell and that of its eight adjacent cells. ‘‘State’’ refers
to the values of the three criteria in the given position. The agent
then moves to the best neighboring cell, or if more than one neigh-
boring cell has the same score, the agent chooses one of them ran-
domly. The agent records the positions and the states of all of the
cells that it traverses, as well as those of their undeveloped neigh-
bors. Traversed cells and their undeveloped neighbors are called
‘‘visited cells.’’ By the time each agent finishes its search in the
108 F. Hosseinali et al. / Cities 31 (2013) 105–113

landscape, it has a list of the states and positions of the cells it has
visited. This list can be considered the agent’s investment list.

Decision to develop

Once an agent finishes its search, it should decide which cells to

develop. To do this, the agent sorts its investment list in descend-
ing order, with the most suitable cell at the top of the list. The
agent then selects the top-scoring cell from its sorted investment
list and develops it if there is no competitor.

Competition

It is highly probable that one cell is selected by more than one

agent for development. Such a cell will certainly be developed. In
such conditions, the conflict is resolved by a competition to iden-
tify the dominant agent. The winner of the competition is deter-
mined by the ‘‘scores’’ of competing agents. An agent’s score
depends on the type of agent and the number of times that the
agent has lost cells in previous competitions. The score is calcu-
lated using the following formula:

Score ¼ W Type  ScoreType þ W Frustration  Frustration ð1Þ

where ScoreType is the score assigned to each type of agent, Frustra-

tion is the number of times that an agent has lost a cell, and W Type
and W Frustration are the weights considered for ScoreType and Frustra-
tion, respectively. The value of Frustration is equal to zero for all
agents at the beginning. However, whenever an agent loses a cell
in a competition, its Frustration value increases by one. This in-
crease means that in the next competition the agent will be more
likely to develop a cell. W Type , W Frustration and ScoreType are deter-
mined by experts by considering pair-by-pair conditions of the
competitions among agents.

Study area
Fig. 3. The study area.

The study area is located in the Qazvin province of Iran. It is

45 km in length and 36 km in width (Fig. 3). The landscape is com-
posed of 162,000 cells of 100  100 m.
This area contains the city of Qazvin, the central city of the
province, and five smaller towns located nearby. The area also in-
cludes several villages and industrial regions. Development has oc-
curred mostly in lands around the city and the towns. Increasing
demand for land, however, has led to development of a number
of informal settlements. Such developments, which negatively af-
fect agricultural and natural resources, are major challenges faced
by the planners in Qazvin. Fig. 4 shows a developing area to the
west of Qazvin that is legally zoned for residential development.
Data preparation
Three criterion maps (layers), namely, land value, attractive-
ness, and accessibility, were used in this study. Fig. 5 shows two
such maps. The land value map was generated by taking into ac-
count land price, availability of land for development (develop-
ment plan map), slope, and soil quality. The accessibility map
was generated by evaluating the shortest time to reach a cell from
the nearest city or town. To produce the attractiveness map, prox-
imity to green zones, views of the city and the local temperature
were considered. All of the maps were normalized to have values
between 0 and 1.
The map of the districts, which reflects the probability of devel-
opment for each district, was also used. The area is divided into 12
districts by the local people. To produce the map, the probability of
development for each district was calculated by dividing the total
area of current development in that district (between 2005 and
2010) by the total area of development in the study area (Table 1).
The development areas were detected using 2005 and 2010 land-
use/land-cover maps obtained from the National Cartographic Cen-
ter (NCC) of Iran. Next, the residential areas and other land-uses
were detected. We used ArcGIS 9.3 (ESRI, 2011) for preparing the
maps, conducting the analysis and representing the results. In
addition, NetLogo 4.1 (Wilensky, 2009) with its GIS extension
was used to develop our agent-based model.
Setting the parameters
The parameters of the model and the values to which they were
set before running the model are presented in Table 2. To set values
of the parameters, we used three approaches: utilizing expert
knowledge, using existing data, and testing the various configura-
tions of the model.
The weights given to districts were specified by experts. The ex-
perts were also asked to determine the scores of the agents (Eq.
(1)). To accomplish this, the experts were asked to consider the
conditions of competition among various types of agents. As a re-
sult of this exercise, values of 9 and 10 were determined for
W Type and W Frustration , respectively.
The number of agents for each type had to be determined as
well. First, we detected a total of 1200 ha of area developed be-
tween 2005 and 2010 in our study area. Based on land value, acces-
sibility, and attractiveness of development, 110 ha were taken as
 F. Hosseinali et al. / Cities 31 (2013) 105–113 109

Fig. 4. Construction to the west side of Qazvin which is zoned for residential development.

Fig. 5. Maps of accessibility (left) and attractiveness (right).

Table 1
The probability of districts.

District 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Probability (%) 38.2 8.5 19.9 10.5 8.1 6.9 1.1 1.5 2.1 1.3 0.7 1.2

year. To determine the other parameters, type 5 among our agents

Table 2 was considered the reference agent. We assumed that agents can
The final parameters of the model.
search 50%, 70%, or 90% of the districts. Furthermore, the number
Type of agent 1 2 3 4 5 of traversed cells was considered to be either10 or 15 times more
Count 110 90 10 20 10 than that of the developing cells. These values are presented in Ta-
Weight of accessibility 3 1 1 2 1
Weight of attractiveness 1 2 2 1 1
ble 2 for each type. Finally, the number of jumps was assumed to
Weight of land value 2 3 1 1 1 be equal to the number of cells each agent develops each year.
Number of searching districts 9 9 9 9 8 The number of jumps is one more for other types than for the ref-
Number of traverse cells 12 11 13 11 10 erence type.
Number of jumps in each district 2 2 2 2 1
To compare the results, the Kappa coefficient was used (Pija-
ScoreType 2 5 5 1 3
nowski, Pithadia, Shellito, & Alexandridis, 2005; Tian, Ouyang,
Quan, & Wu, 2011). The results show that when the number of tra-
versed cells is 10 times of the number of cells that each agent
developments for type 1, 90 ha for type 2, 10 ha for type 3, 20 ha develops per year, a regular pattern is generated. The highest Kap-
for type 4 and 10 ha for type 5 in each year. In this study, we as- pa is realized when the agents search 70% of the districts. Conse-
sumed that each agent is able to develop up to one hectare each quently, the parameters listed in Table 2 were set for the model.
110 F. Hosseinali et al. / Cities 31 (2013) 105–113

The model is thus calibrated using the parameters. In calibra-
tion, data for year 2005 were entered into the model. Next, the re-
sults of the simulation conducted using the model were compared
with data for the year 2010. We computed the Kappa statistic
based on the calibrated model. The value of Kappa was 0.77, which
means that there is a good agreement between the results from the
model and the observed data (Tian et al., 2011).
After the calibration, the model was used to simulate future
land-use development using the 2010 data. By forecasting the pop-
ulation in 2030 and considering the current trend of urban sprawl
in the study area, we evaluated 2600 hectares of urban land-use
development for 2030. Therefore, the numbers of agents of type
1 to type 5 were estimated as 60, 45, 5, 15 and 5, respectively.
Defining the scenarios
Four scenarios were defined in this research. The first scenario,
referred to here as ‘‘the status quo,’’ simulates urban land-use
development using the calibrated model. In this scenario, the cur-
rent 2010 data, along with criterion maps, are used, and the land-
use development for 2030 is simulated. The other scenarios take
into account various plans and policies for the future. Here, it is as-
sumed that the comprehensive and detailed plans prepared and
used by organizations such as the municipalities and the Ministry
of Housing and Urban Development affect the future development
of the study area. For example, change in land and construction
regulations lead to less or more development. Thus, these factors

Fig. 6. The zones created by the incentive (left) and punitive (right) measures.

Fig. 7. The land value maps. Top left: for incentive scenario, top right for punitive scenario and bottom for status quo and reconfiguration scenarios.
 F. Hosseinali et al. / Cities 31 (2013) 105–113 111

Fig. 8. Results of the model in scenarios 1–4 from top to the bottom. Left: probabilities of development, right: developments with probability of more than 50%.

had to be considered in our criteria maps. The criteria maps show development. A land value map is based on the legal, physical
that changing the land value by changing regulations is the least and economic conditions of the area. Thus, two scenarios are de-
costly and perhaps the fastest method for creating incentive for signed based on changing the regulatory status of the study area
112 F. Hosseinali et al. / Cities 31 (2013) 105–113

because any changes in the rules and regulations results in change
in the land values. The regulatory status indicates the legal condi-
tions that are considered in the development plan map.
Thus, based on the comprehensive plan for Qazvin, the zones
that are of greater priority for development should have higher
land values. In this research, approximately 2600 hectares of such
land were identified for the ‘‘incentive’’ scenario (Fig. 6), and their
values in the development plan map increased by 50% to produce a
new land value map.
Referring back to the results of the ‘‘status quo’’ scenario, some
zones here experienced undesirable and scattered developments.
Therefore, in our third scenario, we assumed that these sites
(Fig. 6) are protected by the municipalities from development
using more serious control measures. Such measures reduce the
values of such zones in the development plan map by 50%. Thus,
a new land value map is generated using this ‘‘punitive’’ scenario.
In our fourth scenario, we assumed that the demographic profile
of developer agents is transformed. Our assumptions are that the
economic conditions improve and that the average ages of the devel-
opers increase. Thus the population of agents of types 1 and 4 is re-
duced, and more agents are categorized as types 2, 3 and 5.
Therefore, the numbers of agents of types 1–5 are 70, 30, 10, 10
and 10, respectively. This scenario is called the ‘‘reconfiguration’’ sce-
nario. The land value map used by the scenarios is illustrated in Fig. 7.
Results and discussion
Because of the stochasticity of our agent-based model, the mod-
el was run ten times for each scenario. Each cell may be developed
in no runs or in one or more runs of the model. Hence, each cell has
a probability of development that varies from 0% to 100%. The pat-
tern and direction of simulated developments can be considered a
measure of the quality of our model. The most compact develop-
ments are desired. To measure the dispersion of developments,
we counted the number of clusters of development. A cluster is de-
fined by adjacent developed cells.
Fig. 8 shows the maps produced for the four scenarios. The left
sides present the probabilities of development, while the right
sides show only the cells that achieved more than 50% develop-
ment. To perform a more precise evaluation of the results, Fig. 9
was generated to show two numerical results.
In scenario 1, which represents the continuation of current pat-
terns of development without change, dispersed developments oc-
cur mostly to the east of the city of Qazvin. This is more evident in
the development probability map. The results show that the towns,
villages and residential areas to the east of the city will be devel-
oped such that they will connect in the near future.
Scenario 2 reveals that incentive policies are fairly successful in
reducing scattered developments and directing development to-
ward pre-determined zones. However, not all of the 2600 ha con-
sidered pre-determined zones for development are attractive
enough to the agents. While in the incentive scenario, 140 clusters
of development were detected, there were 180 clusters detected in
the punitive scenario (Fig. 9). Therefore, punitive policies can be
considered less successful in giving direction to development than
incentive policies. Moreover, some developments are still observed
in protected zones. Fig. 9 also shows that the reconfiguration sce-
nario does not have any significant effect on the dispersion of
development, although it has a slight effect on the direction and
positions of developments (Fig. 8).
Dispersed developments exist in all scenarios. Such develop-
ments occur mostly to the northeast of the city. To prevent such
developments, more serious policies must be adopted. The incen-

3000 250

2500 200

2000
150
1500
100
1000
50
500
0
0 1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4
Number of cells with 2611 2629 2602 2613 Total Clusters 236 150 180 235
probability of 50% Clusters with 183 140 177 185
Number of cells with 1920 1989 1905 1890 probability of more
probability of 100% than 50%

Fig. 9. Numerical results of four scenarios, the numbers at the based of the columns correspond to the number of scenarios.

Table 3
The defined scenarios and their observed results.

Scenario Description Implementing approach Observed results from simulation

‘‘status quo’’ Continuing the current
situation of urban
development
‘‘incentive’’ Adopting policies to
encourage the developments
in the desired zones
‘‘punitive’’ Adopting policies to prevent
the developments in the
undesired zones
‘‘reconfiguration’’ Improvement in economic
conditions
Using current land-use developments in the
year 2010 and simulating the developments
for the year 2030
Changing the land value map by adding
2600 ha of desired zones
Changing the land value map by adding
undesired zones
Changing the demographic profile of
developers
Dispersed developments in the region especially to the east of
the city of Qazvin
Decrease in number of development clusters which means more
compact developments. Orientation of development toward the
encouraged zones
Less number of clusters than the ‘‘status quo’’ scenario but more
than the incentive scenario. Developments are still observed in
the protected zones
Insignificant influence on compactness of development. The
developments are slightly oriented toward regions with better
climate
 F. Hosseinali et al. / Cities 31 (2013) 105–113
tive scenario is the most successful in reducing dispersed develop-
ments. This means that incentive policies may be more efficient
than punitive policies. It should also be noted that, if the economic
indices of the region improve, development will be biased toward
those areas with a better climate, such as those north of Qazvin.
Fig. 9 as a numerical result completes Fig. 8. It shows that the
incentive scenario is more convergent in results than the punitive
scenario (the left diagram).
We conclude that the influence of environment on the pattern
of land-use development is greater than the influence of the demo-
graphic profile of the developers. It can also be seen that many
developments will occur near the towns and villages around the
city of Qazvin. Those developments, however, have a tendency to
be dispersed. Both incentive and punitive policies should be used
to manage those developments. Moreover, the general direction
of development is to the north. When the demographic profile of
developers changes in scenario 4, the direction of development
to the north is intensified. This is attributed to the population of
agents that pay more attention to a location’s attractiveness and
to the better climate in the north. Table 3 summarizes the scenar-
ios and their observed results.
Other strategies and policies, such as constructing new infra-
structure, can also lead to development. For instance, constructing
parks, forests and artificial lakes can increase the attractiveness of
regions, which results in attracting more people. Constructing
appropriate road and street networks is another important way
for encouraging development toward the planned areas.
Conclusions and recommendations
Urban growth is a prevalent challenge in many countries. Rapid
growth causes unexpected changes in the land-use of regions
around cities, which can endanger the environment and natural re-
sources. A potential way to mitigate these threats is to develop
more efficient urban growth strategies in which spatial planning
is used to limit the effects of undesirable development. Simulation
is a popular approach to testing such policies and strategies.
In this study, we developed a new agent-based model for simu-
lating future urban land-use development in our study area, lo-
cated in the Qazvin province of Iran. The model was calibrated
with historical data from 2005 to 2010. The urban development
for the year 2030 was then simulated based on our calibrated mod-
el. To test various development strategies, four scenarios were de-
fined. The first scenario mimicked the existing pattern of
development simulated by the calibrated model. In the second
and third scenarios, we examined reward and punishment strate-
gies. The fourth scenario focused on changes in the demographic
population of developer agents.
In the first scenario, dispersed development was detected. The
second scenario revealed that an incentive policy, applied through
increasing land value, is successful in reducing dispersed develop-
ment. The third scenario, in which a punitive policy was modeled,
achieved the same goal as the second one. However, the results show
that punitive and protective policies are less successful in prevent-
ing dispersed development than incentive policies. It was also con-
cluded that changes in the demographic profile of the agents have
little effect on the extent of dispersion of development, although
demographic changes did cause modifications in the direction of
development. Therefore, we suggest the use of both incentive and
punitive policies to reduce dispersed development around the city
and to encourage development toward planned areas.
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