Energy Conversion and Management 213 (2020) 112824

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Energy Conversion and Management

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enconman

A new short-term wind speed forecasting method based on fine-tuned LSTM T

neural network and optimal input sets
Gholamreza Memarzadeha, Farshid Keyniab,
⁎

a
Department of Power and Control Engineering, Graduate University of Advanced Technology, Kerman, Iran
b
Department of Energy Management and Optimization, Institute of Science and High Technology and Environmental Sciences, Graduate University of Advanced
Technology, Kerman, Iran

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Keywords: In recent years, clean energies, such as wind power have been developed rapidly. Especially, wind power
Wind speed forecasting generation becomes a significant source of energy in some power grids. On the other hand, based on the un-
Wavelet transform certain and non-convex behavior of wind speed, wind power generation forecasting and scheduling may be very
Feature selection difficult. In this paper, to improve the accuracy of forecasting the short-term wind speed, a hybrid wind speed
Crow search algorithm
forecasting model has been proposed based on four modules: crow search algorithm (CSA), wavelet transform
Long short term memory
Neural network
(WT), Feature selection (FS) based on entropy and mutual information (MI), and deep learning time series
prediction based on Long Short Term Memory neural networks (LSTM). The proposed wind speed forecasting
strategy is applied to real-life data from Sotavento that is located in the south-west of Europe, in Galicia, Spain,
and Kerman that is located in the Middle East, in the southeast of Iran. The presented numerical results de-
monstrate the efficiency of the proposed method, compared to some other existing wind speed forecasting
methods.

1. Introduction capable of interpreting the physical properties of the components. But

Wind energy as one of renewable energy sources in the world has
attracted a lot of attention. Its benefits include reducing pollution,
safety, renewables, and environmental protection. Governments have
also shown support for increasing wind energy potentials to compete
with traditional energy sources [1].
However, due to the randomness and nonlinearity of wind speed
data, the use of wind energy is a challenging task in terms of economic
development and social progress [2,3]. Furthermore, the uncertainty of
wind speed makes it difficult to predict how much power will be pro-
duced. So, accurate wind speed forecasting can reduce the costs of wind
power producers and also helps them to be more successful in the
electricity market. In recent years, many researchers have proposed
different methods for wind speed forecasting. In some of the approach
the researchers employed meteorological and geographical data to
forecast wind speed, but they are weak in forecast short term wind
speed [3,4]. Some of the techniques that used in short term wind speed
forecasting is tried to find a relationship between the input and output
variables. These approaches are part of the statistical methods [5–7].
These models have better performance than physical model in wind
speed forecasting. These methods are attractive because they are
they are not capable of detecting nonlinear behaviors of wind speed
signals. The third approach is spatial correlation methods, which can
achieve greater forecasting accuracy in some conditions [8,9]. How-
ever, artificial intelligence-based approaches such as artificial neural
networks (ANN) [10–13], support vector machine (SVM) [14], and
fuzzy logic [15] are more successful in short term wind speed fore-
casting. However, among neural networks, deep neural networks are
much more efficient in short-term wind speed forecasting [16–19].
Besides, these neural networks are remarkably accurate in forecasting
various parameters, such as electrical load and price [20,21]. For ex-
ample, khodayar et al. proposed two deep neural network architecture
which in the first model stacked auto-encoder is used to extract im-
portant features and in the second model the stacked denoising auto-
encoder is proposed [16]. Hu et al. proposed transfer learning with
deep neural networks for short-term wind speed forecasting [17]. Wang
et al. for the wind power forecasting proposed a convolutional neural
network [18]. A method based on Hinton and Salakhutdinov's deep
belief nets for time series forecasting is proposed by Kuremoto et al.
[19]. However, the forecasting model strengthens better if the input
data can be eliminated by selecting the most efficient and useful inputs.
Including feature selection methods can be called correlation analysis

⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: f.keynia@kgut.ac.ir (F. Keynia).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2020.112824
Received 21 December 2019; Received in revised form 6 April 2020; Accepted 7 April 2020
Available online 21 April 2020
0196-8904/ © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
G. Memarzadeh and F. Keynia
Nomenclature
CSA Crow search algorithm
WT Wavelet transform
DWT Discrete wavelet transform
IWT Inverse wavelet transform
LSTM Long Short Term Memory
FS Feature selection
MI mutual information
RNN Recurrent Neural Network
MAE Mean Absolute Error
MAPE Mean Absolute Percentage Error
RMSE Root Mean Square Error
xt The input vector
yt The output vector
it The output of the input gate
[22–24] and numerical sensitivity analysis [25,26], all of which are
linear methods of input selection, while the wind speed data are non-
linear. Therefore, Mutual information feature selection methods will be
more efficient [27]. This method calculates the Relevancy of input and
output data.
The hybrid models are developed to improve the accuracy of the
proposed methods for short term wind speed forecasting. These hybrid
models are typically based on a forecaster method and one of the data
processing methods [28–38]. For example, Wang et al. proposed multi-
objective sine cosine algorithm (MOSCA) for wind speed forecasting
named [39]. A hybrid mode that based on decomposition method and
online sequential outlier robust extreme learning machine is proposed
by Zhang et al. for short-term wind speed forecasting [40]. Jiang et al.
proposed a novel hybrid forecasting system based on a data pre-
processing module, optimization module, and forecasting module for
accurate and stable forecasting [41]. Chen et al. proposed a novel hy-
brid method for short term wind speed forecasting called EnsemLSTM.
In this method, LSTMs, SVRM, and EO are used for this purpose [42].
Liu et al. proposed a novel hybrid model, which based on the empirical
wavelet transformation and two kinds of recurrent neural networks
[43]. Zhou et al. proposed a novel hybrid wind speed forecasting
model, which includes data analysis, model selection strategy, fore-
casting processing combined with a modified multi-objective optimi-
zation algorithm, and model evaluation [44].
In this paper to improve the accuracy and speed of the model to
forecast short term wind speed, developed a hybrid wind speed fore-
casting model, which includes four modules: CSA, WT, FS based on
entropy and mutual information, and deep learning time series pre-
diction based on LSTM. To eliminate fluctuation behaviors of wind
speed time series the WT module decomposed the original wind speed
signal to four sub-series. The FS module can rank candidate inputs and
eliminate redundant inputs according to their information value for the
forecasting of wind speed signal. By doing this, in addition to improving
the prediction accuracy, the run time of the model will be significantly
decreased. Finally, the outputs of the previous step have been used as
inputs of the LSTM module and forecasted by it. The CSA is used to
optimize the LSTM structure and the number of input features. To va-
lidate the performance of the proposed model for short term wind speed
forecasting, two case studies data collected from Sotavento is located in
the south-west of Europe, in Galicia, Spain, and Kerman is located in the
middle-east, in the center of Iran are used for this purpose. The results
have demonstrated that the proposed hybrid model has satisfactory
performance in the high precision wind speed forecasting.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 describes the
framework of the proposed model; Section 3 provides the methodology
of the proposed model for wind speed forecasting, which includes
2
Energy Conversion and Management 213 (2020) 112824
ft The output of the output gate
ot The output of forget gate
ct The finishing state in the memory block
c¯t The temporary of the memory cell in the memory block
The sigmoid function which determining the propagation
of the information
Wxf , Wxi , Wxc andWxo The input weight matrices
Whf , Whi , Whc andWho The recurrent weight matrices
Why The hidden output weight matrix
bf , bi , bc , bo andby The related bias vectors
ri Uniformly distributed random number
AP j, iter Awareness probability of crow j at iteration iter
fli,iter Flight length of crow i at iteration iter
SiACT The actual value at time i
SiFOR Forecasted value at the time i
N The total number of data
explanation of WT, FS technique, LSTM model, and CSA. And Section 4
Contains simulation and discussion of results.
2. The framework of the proposed model
This paper proposed a novel model that consists of WT, FS, LSTM
and CSA for wind speed forecasting. Fig. 1 shows the framework of the
proposed model, and the steps are as follows:
1. In the first step, WT is applied to decompose the original wind speed
signal. In Section 3.1, the detail of WT is presented.
2. FS based on entropy and MI is used to rank candidate inputs ac-
cording to their information value for prediction of wind speed
signal. Section 3.2 presents the detail of FS.
3. Then, all sub-layer in previous steps are forecasted by the LSTM
model. In Section 3.3, the aspect of the LSTM network is presented.
4. In two previous step, the CSA is used to optimized LSTM structure
and number of input features.
5. Finally, The results are aggregated from all sub-layer to obtain short
term wind speed forecasting results.
3. Methodology
3.1. Wavelet transform
Generally, time-series patterns of wind velocity have nonlinear and
dynamic properties that present themselves as sharp and fluctuating points.
These points strongly influence the prediction of wind speed. Wind speeds
include several variable features such as changes in levels, slope, and sea-
sonal features that are often one of the most challenging parts of the signal.
Therefore, the WT is used to analyze the asymmetric nature of this time
series data set. In other words, the WT can extract different aspects of data
such as breakpoints and discontinuities. Usually, a DWT is presented to
improve the computation; the wavelet filter bank used in this paper is the
Daubechies orthogonal wavelet. It divides the input data into four distinct
levels (A3, d1, d2, d3). A and d stands for approximation and detail, re-
spectively (f = A3 + D3 + D2 + D1). In Fig. 2 is shown the separating
procedure of the input data using WT.
3.2. Feature selection technique
FS is a process commonly used in machine learning, in which a
subset of the available features of the data is selected for using the
learning algorithm [27]. One of the most advanced FS techniques is MI,
which is based on the entropy concept. In the following, the proposed
method to select the best inputs is described.
G. Memarzadeh and F. Keynia Energy Conversion and Management 213 (2020) 112824

Fig. 1. Framework of the proposed method.

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G. Memarzadeh and F. Keynia Energy Conversion and Management 213 (2020) 112824

RNN is a type of deep neural network. One of the major problems of

this model is the gradient vanishing. To solve this problem, the LSTM
network is introduced, which is a combination of short-term and long-
term memory that can partially solve the problem of gradient van-
ishing. The LSTM network is capable of addressing the long-term and
short-term dependency problems [43]. The critical parameter of the
LSTM network is the memory cell. The basic LSTM cell is shown in
Fig. 4.
According to Fig. 4, in the basic LSTM cell, three gates units is ex-
isted that called input gates, output gates, and forget gates. The im-
plementation of cell state updates and computation of LSTM outputs
can be seen below:
ft = (Wxf . xt + Whf . ht 1 + bf ) (2)
Fig. 2. Data separation using DWT.
it = (Wxi. xt + Whi. ht 1 + bi ) (3)
Relevancy: The similarity of input and target is an essential factor
for input selection. The MI between output and input is an efficient way
c¯t = tanh(Wxc . xt + Whc . ht 1 + bc ) (4)
to calculate this similarity. In the filter that used to select the input in ct = ft ct 1 + it c¯t (5)
this paper, the purpose is to find the MI between inputs X and target Y.
The mutual information MI (x , y ) between the two variables is defined ot = (Wxo. xt + Who. ht 1 + bo) (6)
as following [27]:
ht = ot tanh(ct ) (7)
n m
P (x i , yj )
MI (x , y ) = P (xi , yj )log2
P (x i ) P (yj ) yt = (Why. ht + by ) (8)
i=1 j=1 (1)

If the MI between input and target is large, these two variables are
similar, and also, if the MI becomes zero, the two random variables are
totally unrelated. In Eq. (1), the input x and target y contain n and m
variable, respectively. In other words, by applying this method, after
calculating the MI value based on Eq. (1), the input feature is ranked.
Without using the optimization algorithm, FS is preset using the
threshold limit. In other words, candidate’s inputs that their MI value is
higher than a relevancy, threshold are selected. But when the optimi-
zation algorithm is used, the input selection between candidate inputs is
made by it.
3.3. LSTM model
Deep learning is a machine learning method that uses deep neural
networks. As we know, a deep neural network is a multi-layer neural
network that has several layers. Fig. 3 illustrates the concept of deep
learning and its relation to machine learning.
According to the figure, the deep neural network is in the final
position of machine learning, and the learning rule is an algorithm that
extracts the deep neural network model from the training data. When
the proper model is obtained with the appropriate learning rule, deep
neural network, and training data, then it is used for input data.
1
(x ) =
1+e x (9)
As is known, neural network accuracy improves with an increasing
number of network layers. This is why multi-layer LSTM networks also
perform better. The multi-layer LSTM network has only one direction of
transmission for the sequence.
3.4. Crow search algorithm
Crows are the smartest birds. There is enormous evidence of in-
telligent crows. Crows can remember faces and warn each other
whenever an unkind person approaches them. Also, they can use tools,
communicate in complex ways, and remember the hiding place of their
foods for several months. Besides, the crows have a greedy habit to find
where other birds hide their foods. Likewise, the crows try to find the
hiding place of other bird’s foods and steal the hidden food. The CSA is
trying to imitate this smart behavior to provide an efficient way to solve
optimization problems [45]. In this algorithm, N is the number of
crows, and the position of crow i at iteration iter is determinate as
xi,iter = [x1i, iter , x 2i, iter , ...,xdi, iter ], where d is the number of decision vari-
ables. Each crow has a memory that is memorized the position of its
hiding place. The process of the algorithm is detailed as follows:

Fig. 3. The concept of deep learning and its relation to machine learning.

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G. Memarzadeh and F. Keynia Energy Conversion and Management 213 (2020) 112824

Fig. 4. the basic LSTM cell.

Table 1 3. Position update. At iteration iter, the position of the hiding place of
The parameter of WT-FS-LSTM model. crow i is shown by mi, iter [45]. In CSA at each iteration position of
WT-FS-LSTM model parameter Input feature Learning rate Batch size crow i is updated as follow:

Range 1–50 0.0001–0.1 10–256 x i, iter + ri × fli, iter × (m j, iter x i, iter ) ri AP j, iter
x i, iter + 1 =
a random position otherwise (10)
Based on Eq. (10) if crow j is not aware that followed by crow i then
1. Initialization of the position and memory of crow. The initial posi- it updated its position. Otherwise, it is not updated its position.
tion of crow is randomly determined. In the first iteration, the
memory of crow is the same as the initial position. 4. Memory update. If a position of crow is better than the memory
2. Fitness evaluation. In this step, the objective function of the opti- position, the memory of the crow is updated.
mization problem is calculated for each crow. 5. Convergence. By increasing the number of iterations, the best

Fig. 5. Hourly wind speed data in Sotaventogalicia site.

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G. Memarzadeh and F. Keynia Energy Conversion and Management 213 (2020) 112824

Table 2
The results of different forecasting methods in Sotaventogalicia site.
Forecasting method Number of the input feature Learning rate Batch size MAE (m/s) RMSE (m/s) MAPE (%)

MLP 400 – – 2.6867 3.4945 38.4705

WT-FS-MLP 12 – – 0.3850 0.6180 5.6050
LSTM 400 0.0005 128 2.0018 2.6535 28.0287
FS-LSTM 12 0.0005 128 1.4308 1.8871 21.5643
WT-LSTM 400 0.0005 128 0.6673 0.8739 10.0586
WT-FS-LSTM 12 0.0005 128 0.1973 0.2700 3.1271
Optimized WT-FS-LSTM by PSO 7 0.0053 193 0.1921 0.2629 2.9940
Optimized WT-FS-LSTM by CSA 9 0.0043 126 0.1839 0.2591 2.8578

Fig. 6. The comparison of a different forecasting method in Sotaventogalicia site.

objective function of the problem is found and by this the best so-
lution of the optimization problem is identified.
4. Simulation and discussion of results
As mentioned, the time series of wind speeds have many nonlinear
and dynamic patterns. It was also noted that a different approach was
used to solve this point. In this paper, to resolve these problematic
patterns in wind speed prediction at first, the wind speed data is sent to
the WT block, and then the same oscillation data is grouped into its
category. Then the train and target matrices are made. Then the ap-
propriate inputs are selected according to the method described in
Section 3.2. And finally, for forecasting, these data are given to the
LSTM network. One of the features of the presented paper is relying on

6
G. Memarzadeh and F. Keynia
Fig. 7. The real and forecasted results in Sotaventogalicia site using optimized WT-FS-LSTM methods.
the use of the LSTM network as a suitable approach to predict wind
speed. Therefore, the following steps should be followed to forecast
wind speed using the method described in this paper:
1- First, the historical time series of wind speed data is received, and
then these data are normalized.
2- Now the normalized data from the previous step has been imported
into the CSA.
3- In this step, CSA generates crow position based on the decision
variables, and it tries to optimize the number of input features and
LSTM structure. The decision variables of CSA are the number of
input features, learning rate, and batch size. The objective function
of it is the MAE, which is described in Eq. (12).
4- For each crow position, WT divides normalized data in step 1 into
four different frequency levels.
5- At this step, train and target matrices for each frequency level
should be constructed. For this purpose, 400 training samples are
considered from the end of the input time series. In other words, the
size of the training matrix is the 1200*400, and the size of the target
matrix is 1200*1. Of these data, 80% was used to train the LSTM
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Energy Conversion and Management 213 (2020) 112824
network and the rest to test it.
6- Currently, 400 training samples have entered the FS step, and
among these, those data are ranked based on the MI method. Then,
given the random number generated by the CSA for the number of
inputs features, among these ranked data, the numbers of input
features is determined. Therefore the inputs that are of high value in
predicting wind speed have been selected.
7- At this step, an appropriate forecaster based on the LSTM network in
which CSA optimizes learning rate and batch size, is designed for
each WT frequency level. The designed LSTM network has two
layers, and the first layer has 200 hidden units, and the second layer
has 100 hidden units.
8- IWT is taken from each of the forecaster output.
9- Now the appropriate weighting coefficients extracted from the
forecaster are implemented on the test data, and the objective
function is evaluated, and the optimized input feature and LSTM
structure is obtained. The formula of the MAPE, RMSE, and MAE are
described in Eqs. (11), (12), and (13), respectively. These indices are
used to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed method in the pre-
sented paper.
G. Memarzadeh and F. Keynia Energy Conversion and Management 213 (2020) 112824

Fig. 8. the errors for different forecasting methods in Sotaventogalicia site.

Fig. 9. the errors for optimized WT-FS-LSTM methods in Sotaventogalicia site.

1
N
|Si ACT SiFOR | for forecasting with other methods, the wind speed data of the city of
MAPE = × 100% Sotaventogalicia, Spain in the year 2017, and the city of Kerman, Iran,
N i=1
SiACT (11)
in the year 2009 have been used. The comparison models are listed as
N follows: LSTM model, WT-LSTM model, WT-FS-LSTM model, FS-LSTM
1
RMSE = (SiACT SiFOR )2 model, optimized WT-FS-LSTM model multilayer perceptron (MLP)
N (12)
i=1 neural network model, and WT-FS-MLP model. The CSA parameters in
N the optimized WT-FS-LSTM method are as follow: population size is 30,
1
MAE = |SiACT SiFOR| awareness probability is 0.2, and flight length is 1. Also, the range of
N i=1 (13) WT-FS-LSTM model parameters such as input feature, learning rate, and
In this paper, to compare the performance of the proposed method batch size is shown in Table 1. The feed forward MLP neural network

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G. Memarzadeh and F. Keynia
Fig. 10. coefficient of determination for Sotaventogalicia site by different methods.
that is used in this paper have two layer and it was trained with Le-
venberg- Marquardt method. In this paper, the all proposed methods
are implemented on MATLAB R2018b.
4.1. Sotaventogalicia site
Sotavento is located in the south-west of Europe, in Galicia, Spain, in “A
Serra da Loba” with Lat/Long of 43.354377°N and 7.881213°W. The wind
9
Energy Conversion and Management 213 (2020) 112824
speed in the Sotaventogalicia wind farm is recorded per 10 min, but in this
paper, the hourly wind speed is used. In this case study, the hourly wind
speed data from October 10, 2017, to December 30, 2017, was utilized as
the dataset to perform short term wind speed forecasting [46]. 80% of the
total 1200 samples are used for a train sets, and 20% of them as a test sets.
The wind speed prepared in case study 1 is shown in Fig. 5.
The results of a different forecasting methods in the
Sotaventogalicia site are listed in Table 2. As can be seen from the
G. Memarzadeh and F. Keynia Energy Conversion and Management 213 (2020) 112824

Fig. 11. the hourly wind speed data in the Kerman site.

Table 3
The results of different forecasting methods in the Kerman site.
Forecasting method Number of the input feature Learning rate Batch size MAE (m/s) RMSE (m/s) MAPE (%)

MLP 400 – – 2.1418 2.6213 70.7681

WT-FS-MLP 15 – – 0.1810 0.2335 6.1221
LSTM 400 0.0005 128 1.8017 2.1735 57.4884
FS-LSTM 15 0.0005 128 1.3863 1.7223 47.4771
WT-LSTM 400 0.0005 128 1.5289 1.8756 47.5317
WT-FS-LSTM 15 0.0005 128 0.1311 0.1655 4.2365
Optimized WT-FS-LSTM by PSO 5 0.0056 243 0.1306 0.1621 4.2201
Optimized WT-FS-LSTM by CSA 11 0.0034 152 0.1217 0.1536 4.0857

results in Table 1, the Optimized WT-FS-LSTM by CSA model has an
excellent capability in forecasting wind speed over other proposed
methods for this case study. The Optimized WT-FS-LSTM by CSA
method has the lowest values of MAPE, RMSE, and MAE, among the
other methods. So, by adding CSA optimization method, FS, and WT
blocks, the accuracy of the LSTM method is significantly improved.
Also. These results indicated that the CSA optimization method has
better performance than PSO algorithm.
These results are verified by Fig. 6, which in it the real and pre-
dicted wind speed are presented by the first six methods. As is evident,
the WT-FS-LSTM method has followed the real wind speed exactly.
These results indicated that the LSTM network have better performance
than MLP neural network. But by the optimized WT-FS-LSTM method
can still improve the forecasting results. As can be seen, the results of
the real and forecasted wind speed by optimized WT-FS-LSTM methods
are shown in Fig. 7. The results in this figure also confirm the prediction
improvement.
Fig. 8 shows the error value of the wind speed forecasting for So-
taventogalicia site using different methods. As it is clear, the error value
in the WT-FS-LSTM method is low. Also, the error value of the wind
speed forecasting for the Sotaventogalicia site using optimized WT-FS-
LSTM methods is shown in Fig. 9. Among all the proposed methods in
the Sotaventogalicia site, the optimized WT-FS-LSTM by CSA method
has the lowest prediction error. To illustrate the efficiency of the pro-
posed method for forecasting wind speed in addition to the previously
mentioned indexes, the coefficient of determination (R2) has been used.
Fig. 10 shows the correlation between the real and the forecasted wind
speed values using different methods. It has been observed that the
value of R2 for the Sotaventogalicia site using the WT-FS-LSTM and
optimized WT-FS-LSTM methods are not less than 0.99. This indicates
that the forecasted and real values in the WT-FS-LSTM and optimized
WT-FS-LSTM methods are near. In other words, one can claim that the
forecasting and real values are very close. That is, the mentioned
methods are well able to forecast the wind speed in the Sotaventogalicia
site.
4.2. Kerman site
Kerman is located in the middle-east, in the center of Iran, with Lat/
Long of 30.2839° N and 57.0834° E. In this case, the hourly wind speed
data from the year of 2009 were utilized as the dataset to perform short
term wind speed forecasting. Like the previous case study 80% of the
total 1200 samples are used for a train set, and 20% of them as a test
sets. The yearly wind speed collected in this case study is shown in
Fig. 11. As it is clear, the wind speed in this case study has a lot of
fluctuations and made it difficult to forecast.
To forecast the wind speed in this case study, eight models, in-
cluding MLP, WT-FS-MLP, LSTM, FS-LSTM, WT-LSTM, WT-FS-LSTM,
and optimized WT-FS-LSTM by PSO and CSA methods have been pro-
posed as a previous case study. The forecasting results of different
forecasting models are listed in Table 3. As can be seen from the results
in Table 3, the optimized WT-FS-LSTM by CSA model has an excellent
capability in forecasting wind speed over other proposed methods for
Kerman site. Therefore, although the wind speed in the Kerman site is

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G. Memarzadeh and F. Keynia
Fig. 12. The comparison of a different forecasting method in Kerman site.
highly volatile, the optimized WT-FS-LSTM by CSA method is capable
of forecasting this data accurately. The lower values of MAPE, RMSE,
and MAE in this method over the other methods also confirm this claim.
In other words, by adding CSA and more valuable features as well as
adding WT to the LSTM network, the accuracy of this prediction
method is increased.
These results are verified by Fig. 12, which in it the real and pre-
dicted wind speed are presented by different methods. Also, the opti-
mized WT-FS-LSTM methods can still improve the forecasting results.
As it is clear that the results of the optimized WT-FS-LSTM methods and
the real wind speed are almost overlapping, and it can be claimed that
the results are very similar. The result of these method is shown in
Fig. 13.
Fig. 14 shows the error value of the wind speed forecasting for
Kerman site using different methods. As it is clear, the error value in the
WT-FS-LSTM method is low. Also, the error values calculated from the
optimized WT-FS-LSTM methods are shown in Fig. 15. The error value
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Energy Conversion and Management 213 (2020) 112824
in WT-FS-LSTM by CSA method is significantly lower than those cal-
culated from other presented models for the wind speed forecasting in
the Kerman site. Therefore, these results demonstrate that the opti-
mized WT-FS-LSTM by CSA model is superior compared to all other
proposed models in this paper in wind speed forecasting.
The graph of the coefficient of determination (R2) between the
forecasted and the real wind speed values are used to show the exact fit
of the forecasted and real data. This is shown in Fig. 16. It has been
observed that the value of R2 for the Kerman site using optimized WT-
FS-LSTM by CSA the proposed method is 0.9942. In other words, this
figure indicates that the proposed method fits the actual and the fore-
casted data very well. Also, this method has better R2 value in com-
parison other methods.
5. Conclusion
So far, various methods have been proposed for short term wind
G. Memarzadeh and F. Keynia
Fig. 13. The real and forecasted results in Kerman site using optimized WT-FS-LSTM.
speed forecasting, in which each of them addressed this issue using a
variety of methods and techniques. In this paper, for short term wind
speed forecasting, a hybrid model based on the CSA, WT, FS based on
entropy and MI, and deep learning time series prediction based on
LSTM is proposed. In the proposed hybrid model, the WT is applied to
decompose the raw wind speed signal into four sub-layers, FS module is
used to rank candidate inputs according to their information value for
forecasting of wind speed signal, the LSTM network is employed to
forecast all sub-layers and CSA is used to optimized LSTM structure and
number of input feature. To illustrate the performance of the proposed
algorithm, two case studies, including wind speed data of the year 2017
in Sotavento and Kerman in the year 2009, have been used. Also, to
evaluate the validity of the hybrid system, three error measures, which
include the MAPE, MAE, and RMSE, are utilized in the forecasting ex-
periments. For example, in the Sotaventogalicia site, the MAPE, MAE,
and RMSE are 2.8578, 0.1839, and 0.2591, respectively. The results
show that the optimized WT-FS-LSTM by CSA model can outperform
MLP, WT-FS-MLP, basic LSTM, FS-LSTM, WT-LSTM, WT-FS-LSTM, and
optimized WT-FS-LSTM by PSO. Also, this proposed model can be im-
plemented to forecast other important parameters in the power system
such as price, load, and reserve and so on.
12
Energy Conversion and Management 213 (2020) 112824
6. Conclusion
So far, various methods have been proposed for short term wind
speed forecasting, in which each of them addressed this issue using a
variety of methods and techniques. In this paper, for short term wind
speed forecasting, a hybrid model based on the crow search algorithm,
WT, FS based on entropy and MI, and deep learning time series pre-
diction based on LSTM is proposed. In the proposed hybrid model, the
WT is applied to decompose the raw wind speed signal into four sub-
layers, FS module is used to rank candidate inputs according to their
information value for forecasting of wind speed signal, the LSTM net-
work is employed to forecast all sub-layers and CSA is used to optimized
LSTM structure and number of input feature. To illustrate the perfor-
mance of the proposed algorithm, two case studies, including wind
speed data of the year 2017 in Sotavento and Kerman in the year 2009,
have been used. Also, to evaluate the validity of the hybrid system,
three error measures, which include the MAPE, MAE, and RMSE, are
utilized in the forecasting experiments. For example, in the
Sotaventogalicia site, the MAPE, MAE, and RMSE are 2.8578, 0.1839,
and 0.2591, respectively. The results show that the optimized WT-FS-
LSTM model can outperform basic LSTM, FS-LSTM, WT-LSTM, and WT-
G. Memarzadeh and F. Keynia Energy Conversion and Management 213 (2020) 112824

Fig. 14. the errors for different forecasting methods in case study 2.

Fig. 15. The errors for optimized WT-FS-LSTM methods in Kerman site.

13
G. Memarzadeh and F. Keynia Energy Conversion and Management 213 (2020) 112824

Fig. 16. coefficient of determination for Kerman site by different methods.

14
G. Memarzadeh and F. Keynia
FS-LSTM. Also, this proposed model can be implemented to forecast
other important parameters in the power system such as price, load,
and reserve and so on.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Gholamreza Memarzadeh: Conceptualization, Methodology, Data
curation, Supervision, Writing - review & editing. Farshid Keynia:
Writing - original draft, Software, Investigation, Validation.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influ-
ence the work reported in this paper.
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