Date Beef Production

Jul-19 2,360.70
Aug-19 2,373.40
Sep-19 2,188.60
Oct-19 2,439.30
Nov-19 2,296.90
Dec-19 2,265.10
Jan-20 2,387.60
Feb-20 2,130.70
Mar-20 2,410.80
Apr-20 1,815.40
May-20 1,865.10
Jun-20 2,373.60
Jul-20 2,421.20

Graphically plot the dataset.

Beef Production

2,373.40
2,360.70 2,439.30 2,387.60 2,410.80 2,421.20
2,373.60
2,188.60 2,296.90
2,265.10
2,130.70
Axis Title

1,865.10
1,815.40

Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20

Axis Title

Beef Production

Describe the pattern that exists.

The pattern in the graph given above shows changes in the production of beef
every month. There is variance in the data and the graph illustrates that after a
decrease in production, in the next month there is an increase. The pattern is like
a zigzag line because of the variety of the data.

Use the exponential smoothing α = 0.8 and α = 0.7 to forecast the beef production in August 2020.
a= 0.80
Date Beef Prod. Forecast Error Abs. Error
Jul-19 2,360.70 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Aug-19 2,373.40 2,373.40 0 0
Sep-19 2,188.60 2225.56 -36.96 36.96
 Oct-19 2,439.30 2396.552 42.75 42.748
Nov-19 2,296.90 2316.8304 -19.93 19.9304
Dec-19 2,265.10 2275.44608 -10.35 10.34608
Jan-20 2,387.60 2365.16922 22.43 22.430784
Feb-20 2,130.70 2177.59384 -46.89 46.8938432
Mar-20 2,410.80 2364.15877 46.64 46.64123136
Apr-20 1,815.40 1925.15175 -109.75 109.7517537
May-20 1,865.10 1877.11035 -12.01 12.01035075
Jun-20 2,373.60 2274.30207 99.30 99.29792985
Jul-20 2,421.20 2391.82041 29.38 29.37958597
Aug-20 478.364083 0 0
Total

Which α is better based on the MSE?

MSE

a=0.70
Error^2 Forecast Error Abs. Error Error^2
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
0 2,373.40 0.00 0 0
1366.04 2244.04 -55.44 55.44 3073.5936
1827.39 2380.722 58.58 58.578 3431.382084
397.221 2322.0466 -25.15 25.1466 632.3514916
107.041 2282.18398 -17.08 17.08398 291.8623726
503.14 2355.975194 31.62 31.62481 1000.128355
2199.03 2198.282558 -67.58 67.58256 4567.402173
2175.4 2347.044767 63.76 63.75523 4064.729676
12045.4 1974.89343 -159.49 159.4934 25438.15429
144.249 1898.038029 -32.94 32.93803 1084.913759
9860.08 2230.931409 142.67 142.6686 20354.32694
863.16 2364.119423 57.08 57.08058 3258.192314
0 709.2358268 0 0 0
31488.2 67197.03705

a= 0.80 a=0.70
2624.02 5599.753088