Sales Ad_exp Sales_prom_ exp

468 8 7
604 15 8
696 22 13
724 24 19
756 28 21
784 32 24
829 39 32
853 44 36
860 45 35
896 54 36
914 58 41
926 62 48
938 65 52
947 68 54
971 76 64
 527.05 9.61 -3.86
Sales Ad_expSales_prom_ exp Linear Sales Forecast Absolute error Squared error
468 8 7 576.92 108.92 11864.15762597
604 15 8 640.35 36.35 1321.541643873
696 22 13 688.34 7.66 58.71332778784
724 24 19 684.40 39.60 1568.54926371
756 28 21 715.12 40.88 1670.796495806
784 32 24 741.99 42.01 1764.611974923
829 39 32 778.39 50.61 2561.077943796
853 44 36 811.01 41.99 1762.936619954
860 45 35 824.49 35.51 1261.158131557
896 54 36 907.14 11.14 124.1825987661
914 58 41 926.29 12.29 151.0177788286
926 62 48 937.71 11.71 137.1532650292
938 65 52 951.10 13.10 171.735456825
947 68 54 972.22 25.22 636.1098488803
971 76 64 1010.51 39.51 1561.168683051
34.4343014 1774.3273773
MAD MSE
 10.92 211.63 11.52
Sales Ln(Ad_exp) Ln(Sales_prom_exp) Nonlinear_Forecast_Sales Abs_Diff
468 2.079 1.946 473.42 5.42
604 2.708 2.079 607.99 3.99
696 3.091 2.565 694.64 1.36
724 3.178 2.944 717.43 6.57
756 3.332 3.045 751.21 4.79
784 3.466 3.178 781.00 3.00
829 3.664 3.466 826.19 2.81
853 3.784 3.584 853.07 0.07
860 3.807 3.555 857.50 2.50
896 3.989 3.584 896.41 0.41
914 4.060 3.714 913.03 0.97
926 4.127 3.871 928.97 2.97
938 4.174 3.951 939.89 1.89
947 4.220 3.989 949.87 2.87
971 4.331 4.159 975.37 4.37
2.9325104
MAD
 85.78 205.48 -311.68
SE Sales Ln(Ad_exp) Inv(Sales_prom_exp)
29.3821770830953 468 2.079 0.143
15.9465892079560 604 2.708 0.125
1.8446452318558 696 3.091 0.077
43.1723522020318 724 3.178 0.053
22.9818129601428 756 3.332 0.048
8.9734060589712 784 3.466 0.042
7.9186774024209 829 3.664 0.031
0.0051977435081 853 3.784 0.028
6.2327913162957 860 3.807 0.029
0.1707660712539 896 3.989 0.028
0.9312519100403 914 4.060 0.024
8.7944059165112 926 4.127 0.021
3.5652229594403 938 4.174 0.019
8.2486234418502 947 4.220 0.019
19.0871585262933 971 4.331 0.016
11.8170052021111
MSE
Forecast Abs_Diff SE
468.52 0.52 0.274428
603.25 0.75 0.557888
696.93 0.93 0.871026 1000
722.38 1.62 2.613898
900
755.62 0.38 0.144629
784.91 0.91 0.832366 800
828.81 0.19 0.037126
854.68 1.68 2.807653 700
859.05 0.95 0.910405
600
896.76 0.76 0.571169
912.49 1.51 2.266117 500
927.31 1.31 1.707434
400
937.52 0.48 0.234766 400 500 600 700 800
947.01 0.01 0.000074
970.76 0.24 0.055432
0.82 0.9256272834402
MAD MSE
 Sales Vs Sales
Sales Vs Linear
Sales Vs Non Linear

500 600 700 800 900 1000

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.951433
R Square 0.905224
Adjusted R 0.889428
Standard E 47.09468
Observatio 15

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 254204 127102 57.30713 7.248E-07
Residual 12 26614.91 2217.909
Total 14 280818.9

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 527.048 30.46664 17.29918 7.533E-10 460.6669 593.4291 460.6669 593.4291
Ad_exp 9.613106 3.843888 2.500881 0.02787 1.237995 17.98822 1.237995 17.98822
Sales_prom-3.861444 4.627931 -0.834378 0.420368 -13.94484 6.221951 -13.94484 6.221951
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999684
R Square 0.999369
Adjusted R 0.999264
Standard E 3.843339
Observatio 15

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 280641.7 140320.8 9499.587 6.325E-20
Residual 12 177.2551 14.77126
Total 14 280818.9

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 10.91886 7.040712 1.550818 0.146907 -4.421533 26.25926 -4.421533 26.25926
Ln(Ad_exp) 211.6324 8.424305 25.12165 9.599E-12 193.2775 229.9874 193.2775 229.9874
Ln(Sales_p 11.52384 7.848592 1.468269 0.16775 -5.576769 28.62446 -5.576769 28.62446
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999975
R Square 0.999951
Adjusted R Square 0.999942
Standard Error 1.075655
Observations 15

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 280805 140402.5 121346.9 1.461E-26
Residual 12 13.88441 1.157034
Total 14 280818.9

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 85.77677 6.410743 13.38016 1.425E-08 71.80896 99.74458 71.80896 99.74458
Ln(Ad_exp) 205.4751 1.479927 138.8413 1.308E-20 202.2506 208.6996 202.2506 208.6996
Inv(Sales_prom_exp) -311.6846 23.99563 -12.98922 1.991E-08 -363.9666 -259.4026 -363.9666 -259.4026
Upper 95.0%
 Comparison between Linear and Non Li

Linear
Models:

Rsquare 0.905

Independent Variables Both variables in original form

Observations Coefficient of sales promo is negative

Not a good reflection of model
MAD = 34.43
MSE = 1774.33

Graphically Speaking

1000 1000

900 900

800 800
Sales Vs Sales
700 Sales Vs Linear 700

600 600

500 500

400 400
400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 400 500 600 7
rison between Linear and Non Linear Model

Non Linear

0.999

Both variables are transformed to logarithmic form

Coefficient of sales promo is positive

a better reflection of model
MAD = 2.93
MSE= 11.81

1000

900

800
Sales Vs Sales
Sales Vs Non
700 Linear

600

500

400
400 500 600 700 800 900 1000