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November 2020 Ericsson Mobility Report
November 2020 Ericsson Mobility Report
com/
mobility-report
November 2020
Publisher
Fredrik Jejdling
Executive Vice President and Head of Business Area Networks
Key contributors
Executive Editor: Patrik Cerwall
Project Manager: Anette Lundvall
Editors: Peter Jonsson, Stephen Carson The content of this document is based
Forecasts: Richard Möller on a number of theoretical dependencies
Articles: Peter Jonsson, Steven Davis, Peter Linder, and assumptions. Ericsson shall not be
Amir Gomroki, Ali Zaidi, Anders Carlsson P, bound by or liable for any statement,
Miljenko Opsenica, Ida Sorlie, representation, undertaking or omission
Sebastian Elmgren, Greger Blennerud, made in this document. Furthermore,
Harald Baur, Ritva Svenningsson, Ericsson may, at any time, change the
Brian Heath contents of this document at its sole
Co-authors: Jim Bugel, Suja John, Stacy Schwartz, discretion and shall not be liable for the
AT&T (US) consequences of such changes.
3 Introduction Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
1bn
Fixed wireless access (FWA) new functionality in 5G
is on the rise – 200 service devices is accelerating.
5G subscriptions are forecast providers have now
Page 10
to reach 3.5 billion in 2026. launched FWA services.
By the end of 2020,
Page 8
5G population coverage Page 4
is estimated to reach
15 percent, equivalent
to over 1 billion people.
Page 17
69%
20ms
Fast, multiplayer interaction
Today, 69 percent of
quality-led service
providers have launched
5G for smartphones
commercially.
games require 20–30ms
end-to-end network latency, Page 29
with very high reliability in both
1.7m
uplink and downlink.
Industry 4.0 can
bring forth smarter Page 25
enterprises and
a more inclusive,
As of Q3 2020, 1.7 million interconnected world.
connections are served Page 22
across the US by FirstNet –
built and managed by AT&T.
Page 18
4 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
The spread of COVID-19 continues to We have increased our estimate for the compared to LTE, as well as the earlier
impact all parts of society. Despite the number of 5G subscriptions2 at the end of availability of devices from several
uncertainty caused by the pandemic, 2020, and now forecast 220 million. This is vendors. By the end of 2026, we forecast
service providers continued to switch mainly due to a faster uptake in China than 3.5 billion 5G subscriptions globally,
on 5G and more than 100 have now previously expected, driven by a national accounting for around 40 percent of all
announced commercial 5G service strategic focus, intense competition between mobile subscriptions at that time.
launches.1 The first 5G standalone (SA) service providers and more affordable 5G LTE will remain the dominant mobile
networks have also been launched. smartphones from several vendors. For access technology by subscription over
The net addition of mobile subscriptions North America, our forecast remains the forecast period. During Q3 2020, LTE
was low during Q3 2020 – 11 million. unchanged. Currently, North East Asia is subscriptions increased by approximately
This is likely due to the pandemic and the region with the highest 5G subscription 70 million to reach a total of around
associated lockdown restrictions. For the penetration. However, in 2026 it is 4.5 billion, equaling 57 percent of all
long term, the mobile subscriptions outlook estimated that North America will be mobile subscriptions. It is projected to
has been slightly adjusted downwards, the region with the highest share of peak in 2021 at 4.8 billion subscriptions
as multiple and inactive subscriptions are 5G subscriptions at 80 percent. and decline to around 3.9 billion
being removed. We now forecast 8.8 billion Over the forecast period, 5G subscription subscriptions by the end of 2026
mobile subscriptions by the end of 2026. uptake is expected to be significantly as more subscribers migrate to 5G.
5G subscriptions with a 5G-capable faster than that of 4G (LTE), following
device grew by around 50 million during its launch back in 2009. Key factors are
the quarter to reach around 150 million. China’s earlier engagement with 5G
3.5bn
8.8
billion
9
7.9
billion
8
1
Note: IoT connections are
not included in this graph.
0 Fixed wireless access (FWA)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 connections are included.
1
Ericsson and GSA (October 2020).
2
A 5G subscription is counted as such when associated with a device that supports New Radio (NR),
as specified in 3GPP Release 15, and is connected to a 5G-enabled network.
5 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
Figure 2: Comparison of 5G and 4G subscriptions uptake in the first years of deployment (billion)
3.5
2.5 5G (2018–2026)
4G (2009–2017)
1.5
0.5
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Years since deployment
Subscriptions for mobile broadband This number is forecast to reach 7.5 billion
projected at 91 percent in 2026 in 2026, which will account for around
Today, there are around 7.9 billion mobile 85 percent of all mobile subscriptions
subscriptions. We estimate that this figure at that time. Subscriptions for fixed
will increase to 8.8 billion by the end of broadband are expected to show limited
2026, out of which 91 percent will be growth of around 4 percent per year
for mobile broadband. The number of through 2026.3 Subscriptions for mobile
unique mobile subscribers is projected to be PCs and tablets are expected to show
6.4 billion by the end of the forecast period. moderate growth, reaching around
Smartphone penetration continues to 450 million in 2026.
rise, and subscriptions associated with
smartphones account for about 75 percent
of all mobile phone subscriptions. At the
end of 2020, it is estimated there will be
6.1 billion smartphone subscriptions.
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
3
he number of fixed broadband users is at least three times the number of fixed broadband connections due to shared
T
subscriptions in households, enterprises and public access spots. It is the opposite for mobile phones, where subscription
numbers exceed user numbers. FWA subscriptions are not part of the fixed broadband subscription estimate.
6 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
2020 2026 2020 2026 2020 2026 2020 2026 2020 2026 2020 2026 2020 2026 2020 2026 2020 2026
15% 5% 30% 15% 59% 26% 63% 27% 42% 32% 51% 35% 9% 66% 4% 80% 5G
81% 68%
30% 89% LTE (4G)
83%
WCDMA/HSPA (3G)
51%
GSM/EDGE-only (2G)
56% 63% TD-SCDMA (3G)
59%
63% CDMA-only (2G/3G)
41%
41% 37%
32% 29%
1
Mobile broadband includes radio access technologies HSPA (3G), LTE (4G), 5G, CDMA2000 EV-DO, TD-SCDMA and Mobile WiMAX.
7 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
80%
dominant, representing 63 percent of mobile In Central and Eastern Europe, LTE is the
subscriptions also in 2026, with 3G being dominant technology and now accounts
phased out by that time. 5G will represent for 51 percent of all subscriptions.
around 27 percent of mobile subscriptions in To date, more than 10 5G networks have
India at the end of 2026, estimated at about been commercially launched across the 5G will account for 80 percent
350 million subscriptions. Mobile broadband region. In 2026, LTE will remain the of North American mobile
technologies accounted for 67 percent of dominant technology and is expected to subscriptions in 2026.
mobile subscriptions in 2020, and this figure account for 63 percent of mobile
is predicted to reach 91 percent by 2026, subscriptions, while 5G subscriptions are
when the total number of mobile broadband forecast to make up 35 percent. During the 5G subscriptions, and at the close of the
subscriptions is set to reach close to 1.2 billion. forecast period, there will continue to be a forecast period, the 5G subscription
The number of smartphone subscriptions significant decline in WCDMA/HSPA, penetration is projected to reach 66 percent.
has increased to 760 million in 2020 and is from 36 percent to virtually zero, as users
expected to grow at a CAGR of 7 percent, migrate to LTE and 5G. Western Europe
reaching close to 1.2 billion by 2026. Further spectrum auctions in the key In Western Europe, LTE is the dominant
frequency bands like 700MHz, 3.4–3.8GHz access technology, accounting for 81 percent
South East Asia and Oceania and 4.7GHz were planned for the end of of all subscriptions. LTE is predicted to
The second half of the year has seen a 2020 and the beginning of 2021, some decline to 29 percent and WCDMA/HSPA
number of commercial 5G launches in of which have now been delayed. This to only 2 percent of subscriptions in 2026
South East Asia and Oceania with live will have a short-term impact on 5G as subscribers migrate to 5G. Around
networks now in Australia, New Zealand, deployment in affected countries. 35 service providers have launched 5G
Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines. services across the region, delivering
Upcoming spectrum auctions planned for North East Asia services to around 6.5 million subscribers
2021 in countries like Vietnam and Malaysia In North East Asia, 5G deployment has by the end of 2020. Further spectrum
will bring additional 5G deployments been accelerating during 2020 and all auctions in the 700MHz and 3.4–3.8GHz
next year. Though current commercial 5G major service providers in the region have bands were planned during 2020, but some
networks in the region have mostly been now launched 5G commercial services. have now been delayed, which will have
deployed on mid-bands, market interest for In South Korea, 5G network coverage a short-term impact on the deployment
high-band spectrum has driven successful continues to improve, with the goal of and coverage of 5G in the region. The 5G
trials for mmWave in Australia showcasing nationwide coverage in 2021. In China, subscription penetration is projected to
groundbreaking speeds. the top 3 service providers are building reach 68 percent by the end of 2026.
Dynamic spectrum sharing has also out large-scale 5G coverage, and the
been deployed in several countries in the country is estimated to reach 175 million North America
region, enabling mobile operators to quickly 5G subscriptions by the end of 2020. In North America, 5G commercialization is
increase their 5G footprint as rollouts The leading service providers in Japan moving at a rapid pace. Service providers
continue. In addition to mobile broadband have launched commercial 5G services, have already launched commercial 5G
deployments, fixed wireless access (FWA) but expected 5G subscription uptake services, focused on mobile broadband.
adoption is growing strong with live 5G has remained low, impacted by the The introduction of 5G smartphones
networks already launched in Australia postponement of the Tokyo summer sport supporting all three spectrum bands will
and the Philippines. event, as well as COVID-19. However, make 2021 an eventful year for early
In 2026, 5G is predicted to be the second service providers in Japan are now 5G adopters. FWA will play a key role
most popular technology in the region, accelerating 5G deployments, as well as in closing the digital divide where the
only behind LTE, surpassing 380 million dynamic spectrum sharing, and the number pandemic has exposed large gaps for
subscriptions and accounting for more than of subscriptions is expected to grow education, remote working and small
30 percent of all mobile subscriptions. significantly with the increased availability businesses. By 2026, more than 340 million
of 5G-capable devices. 5G subscriptions are anticipated in the
By the end of 2020 the region is region, accounting for 80 percent of
anticipated to have more than 190 million mobile subscriptions.
8 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
Service providers offering FWA on the rise of 64 percent globally. Service providers’
It is well accepted by now that the adoption of FWA offerings has doubled Definition of FWA
COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating since the first measurements in A connection that provides primary
digitalization, as well as increasing the December 2018 compared to October 2020. broadband access through wireless
importance of, and need for, fast and reliable Looking at the regional breakdowns, wide area mobile network enabled
home broadband connectivity. FWA is, in there is growth across all regions since customer premises equipment (CPE).
many cases, the quickest alternative for February 2020, except Asia-Pacific. This includes various form factors
service providers to meet this demand. Western Europe has the highest FWA of CPEs, such as indoor (desktop
In October 2020, Ericsson updated its adoption at 93 percent, with North America and window) and outdoor (rooftop
study of FWA retail packages offered by second at 80 percent. Central Europe, and wall mounted). It does not
service providers worldwide. Out of the Latin America and North America all grew include portable battery-based
311 service providers studied, 200 had an around 10 percentage points during the Wi-Fi routers or dongles.
FWA offering, which represents an average period of February to October 2020.
200
200 58%
Middle 56%
185 East and
39%
Africa
33%
93%
West 89%
150 Europe 67%
141 49%
Central 72%
and 62%
Eastern 52%
Europe 29%
103
100
48%
Asia- 48%
Pacific 36%
30%
47%
50 Latin 38%
America 29%
18%
80%
North 70%
America 70%
50%
0
Dec 18 Aug 19 Feb 20 Oct 20
FWA offerings 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
9 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
150
Connections (million)
100
50
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
200
Traffic (EB/m)
100
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
FWA global connections uptake FWA data traffic is estimated to represent 5G FWA connections, representing
In addition to the need driven by the around 15 percent of global mobile 12 percent of their fixed broadband
pandemic, there are three main factors network data traffic by the end of 2020. connections as of Q2 2020.
that drive FWA growth. First, demand This is projected to grow 7 times to reach FWA is projected to grow more than
from consumers and businesses for digital 67EB in 2026, accounting for around threefold, reaching around 35 million
services continues, driving the need for 25 percent of total mobile network data connections by 2026 and representing
broadband connectivity. Second, FWA traffic globally. around 35 percent of all broadband
delivered over 4G or 5G is an increasingly connections in the region.
cost-efficient broadband alternative in FWA Middle East and Africa
areas with limited availability of fixed connection uptake FWA in the broadband context
services, such as DSL, cable and fiber. Middle East and Africa is a region with There are approximately 2 billion
Increasing capacity, allowed by greater limited broadband connectivity. We households in the world. By the end
spectrum allocations and technology estimate that there will be around 65 million of 2019, approximately 1.2 billion
advancements for 4G and 5G networks, broadband connections by the end of 2020, (60 percent) had a fixed broadband
is driving higher network efficiency in representing a total household penetration connection, and by the end of 2026 this
terms of the cost per delivered gigabyte. of around 18 percent. Out of these will reach approximately 1.5 billion
Third, governments are fueling broadband broadband connections, FWA is estimated (around 70 percent). FWA will then
connectivity through programs and to represent around 20 percent. represent 12 percent of all fixed broadband
subsidies, as it is considered vital for There are several examples of connections. However, it is worth
digitalization efforts and economic growth. service providers in this region that are mentioning that FWA is also seen as a
The limited reporting from service successful in meeting the large demand replacement option for around 300 million
providers and regulators of FWA for broadband connectivity. To give one existing DSL connections.
connections, combined with varying example, a leading service provider in The FWA impact in society is larger
FWA definitions, results in differences Turkey experienced 3.5 times growth from than the number of FWA connections, as it
in the reported number of connections Q2 2019 to Q2 2020, with the FWA user brings connectivity to three to five people
globally. However, we estimate there will base reaching 0.5 million connections in a household depending on regional
be more than 60 million FWA connections in July 2020. demographics. The forecast of over
by the end of 2020. This number is forecast Most of the FWA offerings in this 180 million FWA connections by the end
to grow more than threefold through 2026, region are 4G based. However, in the of 2026 represents approximately
reaching over 180 million. Out of these, Middle East, there is a growing number 650 million individuals having access
5G FWA connections are expected to of 5G FWA offerings, complementing the to a wireless broadband connection.
grow to more than 70 million by 2026, 4G FWA offerings. For instance, a leading
representing around 40 percent of service provider in Oman showed a
total FWA connections. 171 percent annual growth in 4G and
10 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
5G device outlook
mmWave
NSA
DSS
SA
CA Sub 6GHz CA
NSA
Architecture
SA
Note: The graph illustrates availability of network functionality, as well as support in devices.
11 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
Service providers continue to evolve their Figure 10: VoLTE subscriptions by region (billion)
networks to support VoLTE-based services.
These have now been launched in over Latin America North America Europe Middle East and Africa Asia-Pacific 6.9
220 networks in more than 100 countries. billion
7
VoLTE services are being deployed using
cloud technologies to enable cost-efficient
network implementation and operations. 6
The number of subscriptions with
VoLTE-enabled services is estimated
5
to exceed 3 billion at the end of 2020 and
reach 6.9 billion by the end of 2026 and 3.1
account for more than 90 percent of all billion
4
combined LTE and 5G subscriptions.
When 2G and 3G networks are
decommissioned, this will accelerate 3
VoLTE adoption and VoLTE roaming
agreements as the current most used 4G
2
voice solution, Circuit-Switched Fallback
(CSFB), will not work without 2G or 3G.
VoLTE (using IP Multimedia Subsystem, 1
or IMS) is also the foundation for enabling
5G voice calls as well as SMS, rich
communications services (RCS), and new 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 2022 2024 2025 2026
communication services on 5G devices.
IMS is the only standardized voice solution
for 5G, and there is no circuit-switched functionalities, such as improved voice Other VoLTE-based services include
voice fallback. Voice services will be codecs and native video calling. More than additional phone lines on the same
deployed using several solutions in 5G 165 device models support HD Voice+ phone, shared phone lines, enterprise
networks: LTE-NR dual connectivity, (Evolved Voice System, or EVS), collaboration services in combination with
Evolved Packet System fallback and 410 devices support video calling mobile HD voice, and voice for IoT devices.
(EPS fallback) and Voice over New Radio over LTE (ViLTE). All 5G smartphones 5G-related service innovations are being
(VoNR). The first EPS fallback support VoLTE. considered, including combinations with
voice-enabled network went live during A recent service provider market AR and VR. A new 3GPP standardized
the second half of 2020 in North America. offering is smart speakers with voice functionality will enable 5G interactive
End-to-end testing of 5G voice (VoNR) calling capabilities, using the same mobile calling, which combines a 5G voice call with
and 5G video calling with network phone number as that of a smartphone. real-time content sharing, for example joint
infrastructure and the device ecosystem This builds on VoLTE multi-device network web browsing on 5G smartphones, or
has been successfully completed. capabilities which tie several devices, business and enterprise media sharing
such as phones, smartwatches and smart between different devices and endpoints.
Device availability and use case uptake speakers, to the same phone number. Over This could become a mainstream 5G voice
There are 2,880 VoLTE-enabled 4G device 100 service provider networks support service in the future.
models, of which around 85 percent are cellular smartwatches enabled with
phones. Other devices include indoor CPE, voice services. Cellular wearables with
fixed wireless phones, tablet PCs and standalone subscriptions, including voice
smart watches. VoLTE-enabled calling, are being launched for new user
smartphones also have enhanced groups such as kids and seniors.
Note: Source for network and device statistics: Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA).
12 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
As in Q2 2020, the year-on-year traffic to normal levels. In many countries, Over the long term, traffic1 growth is
growth rate remained at a more normal mobile traffic is, to a certain extent, still driven by both the rising number of
level, around 50 percent, compared to geographically shifted from public and smartphone subscriptions and an
the extraordinary peak in 2018 and the office locations to homes and remote work increasing average data volume per
first part of 2019. The quarter-on-quarter locations. Some countries have seen an subscription, fueled primarily by more
growth for Q3 2020 was 10 percent. increase in mobile broadband data traffic, viewing of video content. Figure 11 shows
COVID-19 related restrictions, such as while others have experienced a decline total global monthly network data and
lockdowns and constraints on movement, supported by Wi-Fi offload in homes voice traffic from Q1 2014 to Q3 2020,
continue to be reflected in people’s with good fixed broadband connections. along with the year-on-year percentage
communication patterns. However, mobile These traffic patterns could change again change for mobile network data traffic.
traffic and mobility are gradually returning if new waves of COVID-19 occur.
Figure 11: Global mobile network data traffic and year-on-year growth (EB per month)
60 100
45 75
Total (uplink + downlink) traffic (EB per month)
30 50
15 25
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Note: Mobile network data traffic also includes traffic generated by fixed wireless access (FWA) services.
1
Traffic does not include DVB-H, Wi-Fi or Mobile WiMAX. VoIP is included.
13 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
250
200
150
54%
In 2026, 5G will account
5G for an estimated 54 percent
of total mobile data.
100
50
2G/3G/4G
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Note: This graph does not include traffic generated by fixed wireless access (FWA) services.
Global total mobile data traffic is estimated Large variations in traffic Close to 1.2 billion smartphone
to reach around 51EB per month by growth across regions subscriptions in India in 2026
the end of 2020 and is projected to Traffic growth can be very volatile between In the India region, the average monthly
grow by a factor of around 4.5 to reach years and can also vary significantly mobile data usage per smartphone
226EB per month in 2026. This figure between countries, depending on local continues to show robust growth, boosted
represents the mobile data that will be market dynamics. We have significantly by the rapid adoption of 4G and people
consumed by more than 6 billion people increased our forecasts for North East Asia working from home during COVID-19.
using smartphones, laptops and a and South East Asia and Oceania, as we The reliance of people on their mobile
multitude of new devices at that time. have seen that the data consumption is networks to stay connected as well as work
Video traffic currently accounts higher than earlier anticipated in from home has contributed to the average
for 66 percent of all mobile data markets with low average revenue per traffic per smartphone user increasing
traffic, a share that is forecast to user (ARPU). In India for example, traffic from 13.5GB per month in 2019 to 15.7GB
increase to 77 percent in 2026. growth continues an upward trajectory per month in 2020. The average traffic per
Smartphones continue to be at and remains the region with the highest smartphone is expected to further increase
the epicenter of this development as monthly usage per smartphone at 15.7GB. to around 37GB per month in 2026.
they generate most of the mobile data Globally, the growth in mobile Low prices for mobile broadband services,
traffic – about 95 percent – today, data traffic per smartphone can be affordable smartphones and increased
a share that is projected to increase attributed to three main drivers: time spent by people online all contribute
throughout the forecast period. improved device capabilities, an increase to monthly usage growth in the region.
Populous markets that launch 5G in data-intensive content and more Total traffic is projected to quadruple,
early are likely to lead traffic growth over data throughput from subsequent reaching 35EB per month in 2026. This
the forecast period. By 2026, we expect generations of network technology. comes from two factors: high growth
that 54 percent of total mobile data in the number of smartphone users,
traffic will be carried by 5G networks. including growth in rural areas, and an
increase in average usage per smartphone.
An additional 390 million smartphone
subscriptions are expected in India
during the forecast period, taking the
total number close to 1.2 billion in 2026.
14 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
CAGR
Figure 13: Mobile data traffic per smartphone (GB per month) 2020–
Regions 2020 2026 2026
50
45
40
35
30
25
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
In North America, future monthly GB High growth in monthly mobile data growth rate (CAGR) of 33 percent for the
growth depends on 5G service adoption usage continues in North East Asia forecast period. It is expected to reach
The monthly average usage of mobile Overall, mobile data usage keeps growing 32EB per month in 2026, equivalent
data in North America is expected to reach in North East Asia. Remote working due to 33GB per month per smartphone.
49GB per month and smartphone in 2026. to COVID-19 has been one of the traffic Growth in mobile data consumption
A smartphone-savvy consumer base and drivers during 2020. The monthly usage per has translated into more diversified
video-rich applications in combination smartphone is estimated to reach 11.1GB and generous data plans from mobile
with large data plans will drive traffic by the end of the year, increasing from operators across different geographies.
growth. While there may be strong growth 7.8GB at the end of 2019. With 5G set to Latin America is expected to follow a
in traffic per smartphone in the near term, capture a great number of early adopters, similar trend as South East Asia over the
the adoption of immersive consumer we continue to expect high growth numbers forecast period on a regional level, while
services using VR and AR is expected in the region. In South Korea, a leading individual countries can show very different
to lead to an even higher growth rate in 5G market, average monthly data usage growth rates for traffic per smartphone.
the long term. In 2026, 5G subscription per 5G subscriber is over 25GB. Traffic growth is driven by coverage
penetration is set to be the highest of all The data traffic per smartphone is expected build-out and continued adoption of 4G
regions at 80 percent. to reach 41GB per month in 2026. (and eventually 5G), linked to a rise in
The Western Europe traffic growth The Middle East and North Africa smartphone subscriptions and increases in
rate follows a similar pattern to that region is expected to have the highest average data usage per smartphone. The
expected in North America. The more growth rate during the forecast period, data traffic per smartphone is expected
fragmented market situation is anticipated increasing total mobile data traffic by to reach 29GB per month in 2026.
to lead to later mass-market adoption a factor of almost 7 between 2020 and In Central and Eastern Europe,
of 5G, but in 2026 the traffic usage per 2026. The average data per smartphone is growth is also fueled by 4G and 5G
smartphone is expected to be 46GB expected to reach 30GB per month in 2026. adoption, but the region has a somewhat
per month, which will be close to the Sub-Saharan Africa also has a very higher traffic per smartphone starting
usage in North America at that time. high growth rate, but from a relatively point. Over the forecast period, the monthly
small base, with total mobile data traffic traffic per smartphone is expected to
increasing from 0.87EB per month increase from 7.3GB to 29GB per month.
to 5.6EB in 2026. Average traffic per It is important to bear in mind that
smartphone is expected to reach 8.9GB there are significant variations in monthly
per month over the forecast period. data consumption within regions, with
In South East Asia and Oceania, individual countries and service providers
total mobile data traffic continues to having considerably higher monthly
grow steadily with a compound annual consumption than any regional averages.
15 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
The Massive IoT technologies NB-IoT and for Massive IoT include various types of advanced cloud gaming, and real-time
Cat-M1 continue to be rolled out around meters, sensors, trackers and wearables. coordination and control of machines
the world, but at a slightly slower pace in Broadband IoT mainly includes and processes. Deployment of the first
2020 than previously forecast due to the wide-area use cases that require higher modules supporting Critical IoT use
impact of COVID-19. 2G and 3G connectivity throughput, lower latency and larger data cases is expected in 2021.
still enable the majority of IoT applications, volumes than Massive IoT technologies North East Asia is leading in terms of
but during 2020, the numbers of Massive IoT can support. LTE is already supporting the number of cellular IoT connections.
connections are expected to have doubled, many use cases in this segment. By the At the end of 2020, the region is expected
reaching close to 200 million connections. end of 2026, 44 percent of cellular IoT to account for 64 percent of all cellular
Massive IoT primarily consists of connections will be broadband IoT, with IoT connections, a figure set to increase
wide-area use cases, connecting large 4G connecting the majority. With the to 69 percent by 2026.
numbers of low-complexity, low-cost introduction of 5G New Radio (NR) in old
devices that have long battery life and and new spectrum, throughput data rates IoT devices
relatively low throughput. About 110 service will increase substantially for this segment. The first 5G NR-capable IoT platforms
providers have been identified as having Critical IoT is intended for time-critical have recently been released. Modules
launched NB-IoT and close to 50 as communications in both wide- and from several vendors are available, as
having launched Cat-M. NB-IoT and local-area use cases that require well as tailored platforms for PCs and
Cat-M technologies complement each guaranteed data delivery with specified advanced wearables. In the second half
other, and several service providers have latency targets. Critical IoT will be of 2020 and during 2021, this is expected
launched both technologies. At the end introduced in 5G networks with the to expand to include use cases involving
of 2026, NB-IoT and Cat-M are projected advanced time-critical communication personal and commercial vehicles, cameras,
to account for 45 percent of all cellular capabilities of 5G NR. It will enable industry routers and gaming. Such devices
IoT connections. Cat-M and NB-IoT a wide range of time-critical services will initially support mobile broadband
follow a smooth evolution path into 5G for consumers, enterprises and public capabilities, but performance is expected to
networks, and can continue to be deployed institutions across various sectors. Typical evolve towards time-critical communication
in the same bands as today, even when use cases include cloud-based AR/VR, capabilities where needed, via software
5G is introduced. Commercial devices cloud robotics, autonomous vehicles, upgrades on devices and networks.
Figure 14: Cellular IoT connections by segment and technology (billion) Figure 15: IoT connections (billion)
Broadband IoT and Critical IoT (4G/5G) Massive IoT (NB-IoT/Cat-M) Legacy (2G/3G)
IoT 2020 2026 CAGR
6.0
Wide-area IoT 1.9 6.3 22%
5.0
1.0
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1
Cat-M includes both Cat-M1 and Cat-M2. Only Cat-M1 is being supported today.
2
These figures are also included in the figures for wide-area IoT.
16 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
Time-critical
communications with 5G
Critical IoT will be introduced with 5G networks. It will enable a wide range
of time-critical services for consumers, enterprises and public institutions
across various sectors, with 5G public and dedicated networks.
Critical IoT is intended for time-critical Remote control refers to control of indoor and outdoor coverage for a small
applications that demand data delivery machines, equipment, and aerial and geographical area such as a factory, port
within a specified time duration with ground vehicles from a distance. Remote or mine. Confined wide-area deployment is
a certain guarantee; for example data control can improve work environments for a predefined geographical area such as
delivery within 50ms with 99.9 percent by moving humans out of hazardous a highway or within a city center. General
certainty (reliability). This is fundamentally locations and giving access to a broader wide-area deployment is about serving
different from enhanced mobile broadband workforce. It is an important functionality devices almost anywhere.
connectivity, which maximizes data rates for autonomous vehicles, in order to Service providers can start to address
without any guarantee on latency. Early reliably take temporary control in case time-critical use cases (such as the
adoption of time-critical communication the autonomous function fails. entertainment, healthcare, public safety
is expected for remote control and Industrial control includes real-time and education sectors) in the wide
real-time media applications via process monitoring and control, area by adding support for Critical IoT
public and dedicated networks. controller-to-controller communication, connectivity to the NR carriers through
smart grid control, machine vision for upgrades. More stringent requirements
Time-critical communication robotics and motion control. demand network densification, edge
enables new applications Mobility automation refers to the computing, and further distribution and
There are four fundamental time-critical automation of control loops for vehicles duplication of core network functions. In
use case categories that are common and mobile robots. This can include the confined wide area, relatively stringent
across various verticals. automated guided vehicles (AGVs), requirements can be addressed with
Real-time media – time-critical cooperative maneuvering of vehicles investments in infrastructure (for example,
communication enables offloading of and advanced intersection safety. for automotive, railways, and utilities
processing and rendering to the cloud, sectors). In local-area scenarios, extreme
improving the user experience and Network deployment strategy requirements can be supported once the
enabling the use of lightweight devices in depends on coverage needs end-to-end ecosystem is established.
interactive cloud gaming and cloud There are three main network deployment
AR/VR for enterprises and consumers. scenarios. Local-area deployment includes
Network coverage
Momentum continues in the build-out of There are big differences between Figure 17: World population
4G (LTE) networks. Global 4G population countries in how service providers coverage by technology1
coverage will be over 80 percent at the end have deployed 5G. In the US, all three
of 2020 and is forecast to reach around of these categories have been used, 3GPP
95 percent in 2026. 4G networks are also resulting in 5G coverage for a large part
evolving to deliver increased network of the population. In Europe, countries 2020 ~95%
capacity and faster data speeds. There are such as Germany and Spain have used
currently 795 commercial 4G networks deployments in existing bands to create
2026 >95%
deployed. Of these, 324 have been substantial coverage. China has mainly
upgraded to LTE-Advanced, and deployed new bands to achieve a large
41 Gigabit LTE networks have been population coverage.
commercially launched. LTE
5G estimated to cover around
5G launch and deployment 60 percent of the population in 2026 2020 >80%
as per the end of 2019 There are several global factors impacting
Global 5G population coverage was around the forecast; the most evident short-term
2026 ~95%
5 percent at the end of 2019, with the ones are COVID-19 and the geopolitical
main deployments made in larger cities. situation. The exact impact of these factors
The most extensive coverage build-outs on 5G population coverage remains to
have been in the US, China, South Korea be seen. 5G is still expected to be the 5G
and Switzerland. In South Korea, service fastest deployed mobile communication
providers rapidly built 5G networks that technology in history and is forecast to 2020 ~15%
covered a large part of the population. cover about 60 percent of the world’s
In Switzerland, 5G population coverage population in 2026.
2026 ~60%
reached over 90 percent at the end of 2019.
1
The figures refer to coverage of each technology. The ability to utilize the technology is subject to factors such as access to devices and subscriptions.
18 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
1
”The 9/11 Commission report” (July 2004).
19 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
A communications ecosystem • always-on, 24/7 priority and User experience represents an essential
for public safety preemption across voice and data, part of the vision for FirstNet. Once fully
FirstNet is exclusively for first responders with multiple priority levels that first implemented, the value of the network will
and those who support their vital efforts. responder users can allocate as needed be measured by how much easier it has
This includes law enforcement, emergency to protect communications against become for first responders to focus on
medical services and fire protection commercial traffic congestion their prime task. FirstNet already covers
services, and important supporting services • a nationwide, dedicated fleet of over 99 percent of the US population,
such as emergency (9-1-1) call dispatching, land-based and airborne portable and by mid-2020, the initial FirstNet
government Public Safety Answering Points cell sites to help provide coverage build surpassed 80 percent completion,
and emergency planning and management in remote locations or immediately serving over 1.7 million connections in
offices. Other essential personnel who following a disaster more than 14,000 agencies across the US.
support first responders before, during • mission-centric ruggedized mobile Fortunately, the initial FirstNet build had
and after an emergency can also subscribe devices, applications and features, reached a sufficient level of completion
to FirstNet. These organizations provide including Mission-Critical Push-to-talk, to support the emergencies hitting the
medical care, mitigation, remediation, to complement existing legacy radio US this year.
overhaul, clean-up, restoration, or other networks communication services In addition to the initial USD 6.5 billion
such services during or after an incident. investment allocated by the FirstNet
In 2017, the FirstNet Authority The FirstNet Authority has laid out a Authority for the build-out, AT&T is
selected AT&T to build and manage the comprehensive roadmap based on public investing about USD 40 billion to build,
FirstNet network for a period of 25 years. safety input, to ensure mission-critical operate and maintain the network.
FirstNet is an entire communications mobile broadband communications This co-investment and public–private
ecosystem dedicated to public safety capabilities. These are: partnership approach is proving to be a
and characterized by: • a dedicated core network to successful model for a network serving
• a shared radio network utilizing all AT&T enable mission-critical capabilities public safety.
LTE commercial spectrum bands, as • sufficient spectrum capacity
well as 20MHz of nationwide coverage and coverage
1.7m
in the 700MHz bands, dedicated to first • improved situational awareness
responders, and available to commercial (such as three-dimensional
users when not in use by public safety location services)
• a highly secure, dedicated network core • mission-critical voice
designed from the ground up to serve communication services As of Q3 2020, FirstNet has grown
the public safety community • high information security to serve over 1.7 million connections
• a network launched with 4G LTE and and integrity used by first responders and the
currently being upgraded to provide • improved user experience extended public safety community.
5G capabilities for first responders
20 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
AT&T FirstNet
AT&T users prefer AT&T LTE FirstNet users prefer Band 14
commercial bands but will use Band 14 (700MHz), but also use
(700MHz) as a last preference AT&T commercial bands
Transport network
Managing changing traffic Flexible coverage solutions Overall, traffic patterns shift from
demand during the pandemic required during emergencies known/predictable to more dynamic
The emergencies hitting the US in 2020 The demand for temporary coverage scenarios during acute emergencies.
caused substantial changes in traffic levels solutions to support first responders The ability to support these types of
and patterns across consumer, business in different emergency situations shifts is a key feature of FirstNet.
and public safety segments. During illustrates the high level of flexibility Even when business and consumer
the first six months of the pandemic, that FirstNet needs to support: traffic is surging, first responder
mid-March to mid-September, the • Hospital ships, with 1,000 beds and communications are protected,
following changes in mobile traffic 12 operating rooms, were deployed to with spectrum dedicated to public
generated by consumers and businesses offload hospitals in metropolitan areas safety when needed, and prioritization
were observed in AT&T’s network: hit hard by the pandemic. There was across all AT&T LTE commercial
• The overall traffic grew by 20 percent, an immediate requirement to support spectrum bands. This gives public safety
compared to pre-pandemic figures. a high concentration of first responders authorities immediate access to network
• Mobile traffic shifted from public/office to as soon as ships reached the ports. connectivity as well as even more
home/remote work locations, as • Hurricane landfall areas. FirstNet One, coverage and capacity. In addition, using
60 percent of Americans worked remotely. a 17m-long blimp flying up to 500m high, shared network infrastructure enabled
• The mobile data traffic was flat to was deployed to elevate the cellular first responders to immediately access
slightly declining, supported by Wi-Fi radios to address larger geographical the early benefits and capabilities of
offload in homes with good fixed areas than a COW can cover. FirstNet while AT&T built the dedicated
broadband connections. • Wildfires where ground forces FirstNet network core – designed with
• Mobile voice traffic increased need a bird’s-eye perspective on the a defense-in-depth approach that
by almost 40 percent. development in real time. Specialized helps maintain security at every level.
aircrafts performed reconnaissance
Regarding FirstNet, public safety flights and fed real-time insights to
20%
authorities made more than 450 requests first responders on the ground serviced
for temporary network coverage solutions, by COWs, that can quickly move with
such as cell on wheels (COW) deployables, changes in the firefighting location.
in-building solutions and macro network
enhancements to support planned and Emergencies directly affect mobile
emergency events. This covered everything traffic; in the first 6 months of
from drive-through COVID-19 testing the COVID-19 pandemic, mobile
sites to natural disasters like hurricanes traffic grew by 20 percent.
and wildfires. Interestingly, throughout
the pandemic, the average first responder
consumed more than double the mobile
data of the average consumer, which
reinforces the importance of having
a network service specifically for public
safety – especially during times of crisis.
21 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
An evolutionary path – the first set of investments – for AT&T to FirstNet Authority’s investment is setting
towards 5G capabilities upgrade the FirstNet core network with the stage for reliable, secure 5G for first
FirstNet and the mission to serve first 5G technologies and expand the fleet of responders in the US. It will ensure public
responders during the exceptional deployable network assets. This is the safety services are able to take advantage
challenges they are facing during 2020 beginning of a multi-phase, multi-year of 5G’s potential when it is ready for these
have proven the value of mission-critical journey to deliver full 5G capabilities applications. As it does today, FirstNet is
networks for public safety applications. on FirstNet for public safety. During designed to manage traffic so that public
The need for digital transformation is not the coming years, 5G technologies will safety has the ultimate fit-for-purpose user
limited to businesses, but also stretches provide a range of network improvements, experience – sending the data via the best
into the public safety sector and first including low (predictable) latency and route. That could be done over 5G
responders’ needs. Paramedics can be in capacity enhancements, that could enable or 4G with priority and preemption,
direct contact with the receiving hospital new capabilities for mission-critical but it will be an evolutionary path
from the moment they reach their patients, networks and public safety applications. where 4G LTE and 5G will coexist.
aiding remote diagnosis and treatments. Today, many of the priority and As shown in Figure 21, 5G technology
Fast deployment of temporary network preemption capabilities to efficiently can enable a broad ecosystem of additional
coverage accelerates the recovery and manage LTE radio and network resources applications and use cases beyond what is
reconstruction phase of local communities do not yet exist for 5G, but are works in possible today. 5G will eventually further
and society immediately after a hurricane. progress. LTE is therefore the current improve first responder command, control
Firefighters get a better view of the nature platform for mission-critical mobile and communications capabilities and be
of uncontrolled wildfires, saving their lives broadband and will remain so a catalyst for additional technological
and the lives of others. for years to come. Innovations in innovations to support emergency response
In June 2020, the FirstNet Authority mission-critical features are still being and enhance the odds for positive outcomes
Board approved USD 218 million developed and tested. However, the and saving lives.
Figure 21: Examples of applications and use cases 5G could unlock for first responders
Suppliers and manufacturers must design for resilience and flexibility in value chains.
The transition to Industry 4.0 will depend on locally and globally interconnected
operations to support smart production and life cycle management.
Around 70 percent of international trade Interconnectedness is key for adaptability According to the Organization for
today involves global value chains (GVCs). Multinational enterprises (MNEs) lead the Economic Co-operation and Development
These are made up of domestic and fragmentation, shifting their activities (OECD), many SMEs struggle to link
international enterprises that trade and depending on a variety of business criteria up to GVCs, and most fail to deliver
transfer materials, goods and services. and cost conditions. They insource products and services beyond their
To compete in the global economy, products and services both domestically local market. By lowering the barriers to
enterprises become increasingly and internationally, but outsourcing and global marketplaces and strengthening
specialized. This has led to a considerable offshoring are still dominating trends. Small specialization, purely domestic SMEs can
fragmentation of value-adding activities to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) make enlarge their pool of buyers, increasing
throughout the whole value chain, up most of the economy and act as partners, exports and ultimately improving
ranging from design and engineering suppliers and distributors. They play a major national GDP.
through production to after-sales services. role in inclusive growth in societies.3
Historically designed and driven by cost Regardless of size and reach, the key
concerns, GVCs today have grown so to adaptability is to strengthen the There are three critical capabilities
dispersed and complex that governance interconnectedness of enterprises. This will for successful involvement in GVCs:
has become very challenging, leaving not only optimize supply chains and • unique products and services
enterprises more vulnerable to disruptive material footprint, but ultimately create • strong managerial and
shocks. According to a recent study, the most value for customers in each part operational competencies
60 percent of executives have zero of the value chain. However, networking • flexibility to adapt to
visibility beyond their tier 1 suppliers.1 capabilities to connect products, people changing demands
The automotive industry is an example and processes simultaneously on one
that illustrates the complexity; there is common platform are often lacking. These capabilities mark distinct
an average of 250 publicly disclosed The fragmentation of and competitive advantages that can be
tier 1 suppliers, extending up to interdependencies within GVCs make unlocked with Industry 4.0.
850 for the largest manufacturers. connectivity an even more critical
Yet, their respective and non-visible foundation for growth. Connectivity not only
tier 2+ suppliers number 18,000.2 improves internal and external collaboration However, many SMEs lack the competence
With rising market volatility, and transparency, but upgrades the and investment capacity to implement the
resilience and risk mitigation have enterprises’ own positions in the value chain. Industry 4.0 solutions (for example, IIoT,
increased in importance relative to cost advanced automation, AR and predictive
and efficiency. Investing in improved maintenance) necessary to fully enable
information systems and communications Industry 4.0 these capabilities. On the other hand,
infrastructure is one way to counteract The Fourth Industrial Revolution MNEs have challenges with governance
sub-optimal operations or imbalances (Industry 4.0) changes the way and improvement of their value chains,
in supply and demand. For example, products are manufactured and as these are seldom truly centralized or
faster procurement of components from consumed. It creates unprecedented expertly coordinated.
a reliable supplier supports just-in-time levels of automation, compliance and
manufacturing, avoiding both delays and performance by merging physical and
excessive inventory. virtual worlds through a combination
Although improving transparency and of technologies like Industrial Internet
traceability on the shop floor will improve of Things (IIoT) and augmented reality
many internal metrics, an enterprise is not (AR). This not only caters to smart
an island. It exchanges resources, capital operations at plant level but also
and competence in markets subject to applies through the entire supply chain.
regional and geopolitical power dynamics.
1
www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/4-ways-industry-make-supply-chains-sustainable
2
www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/why-now-is-the-time-to-stress-test-your-industrial-supply-chain
3
oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/6062/SMEs_are_key_for_more_inclusive_growth.html
23 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
Tier 1 suppliers
Tier 2+ suppliers
Visibility often ends here for the MNEs
MNE
SME
SME
manufacturer SME
SME
manufacturer SME
SME
manufacturer
SME
4
www.5g-industry-campus.com
24 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
Figure 23: How the Industry 4.0 transformation affects economic models
Multi-SIM lowers barriers for roaming For example, when products are assembled The goal of the digital factory is to
To enhance GVCs there is a need for at multiple factory sites, traceability from effectively align business needs and
different connectivity solutions. In order one to the other is valuable, both when it operational processes through advanced
to support both central and local comes to fast fault-finding and to facilitate information systems. These can be well
decision-making for manufacturing and just-in-time manufacturing. To improve supported by cellular solutions interlinking
logistics, there are several network options governance and customer management, the globally dispersed enterprise. The
available for MNEs and SMEs responsible new connected industrial assets can switch integrated information flows limit waste
for different value stages and sites. “roles” from shipping to deployment and with smarter, timelier decisions. Even if
A private (dedicated) network executes even to service mode. Naturally, each stage most use cases today focus on optimizing
critical applications locally so sensitive may have specific connectivity a production line or site, the integration
data does not leave the factory premises, requirements and rules as to when the and potential savings go well beyond the
which is a basic requirement for most device should switch profile. shop floor. Smart manufacturing takes
manufacturers. On the other hand, a public place across locations with feedback
network connects sites and assets that Interconnected enterprises loops, for example with digital twins
need wide-area coverage at customer transform economic models strengthening design and quality of the
premises and during transit for smarter In Figure 23, whether the enterprise product, or faster sourcing of components
logistics. A digital supply network or the controls the entire value chain end-to-end from a supplier that is more resilient to
extended enterprise might need both, (MNE) or is a contributor (SMEs A and B) disruptive events. The ability to change or
connecting dedicated sites, product flows in the chain, smarter integration of tailor even in-process orders, constantly
and services. manufacturing and business can lead to incorporating customer needs through
To support interconnected operations, shifts in traditional economic models. marketing insights, better balances actual
factory assets like OEM machines can be The manufacturing stage, providing demand with supply. Enhancing and
connected throughout their lifecycles with standardized products in high volumes, exploiting these types of interlinkages
multi-SIM card technology. With the has historically been viewed as having the is where efficiencies and value can be
capability to store multiple or dual lowest value-add in both the value and unlocked for the enterprise, regardless of
profiles, the asset can easily shift between supply chains, whereas the highest its place or participation in the value chain.
public and private networks. As profile value-adding stages have been R&D, By lowering barriers to cooperation,
switching typically takes 20–30 seconds, marketing and after-sales services. actual networks can help mitigate some of
this approach does not support seamless With the development of the digital factory the volatility, uncertainty and complexity
roaming, but it does not require any within the context of Industry 4.0, the of industrial governance and trade. In turn,
reboot of the device either. Applications value-add of the manufacturing stage will this encourages digital integration and the
like automated guided vehicles (AGVs) increase alongside the evolution of establishment of networked enterprises.
or autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) advanced industrial automation and New technologies have always driven
that are constantly moving between a reshoring. The R&D stage will also signify waves of globalization. Industry 4.0
private and public network on a campus a higher value-add, as Industry 4.0 implies can bring forth the networked enterprise
are not suited for this solution. investments in advanced industrial for smarter collaboration across
However, there are many applications automation, artificial intelligence (AI), borders, advancing a more inclusive and
where a short break in connectivity is up-skilling labor and co-creation with interconnected world.
acceptable when the identity is saved. customers. Increased interconnectedness
with manufacturing would bring faster
prototyping and deployment of innovations.
25 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
The first game streaming services were Annual volumes of current-generation Mobile cloud gaming services from 5G
launched a few years ago. Initially, they were video game consoles have been communications service providers rising
targeted towards console and PC gamers. 40–50 million units worldwide over the Out of 106 communications service
Today, new opportunities to expand the last 3 years. In comparison, over the same providers that have launched commercial
mobile gaming market and further develop time period incremental 4G subscriptions 5G service offerings,4 22 have announced
the gaming experience are emerging, have averaged 685 million. Furthermore, the availability of mobile cloud gaming
with 5G networks and cloud gaming the number of 5G smartphone users is services on a separate subscription basis,
services becoming increasingly accessible forecast to increase from about 200 million or as a service bundled with a premium
on smartphones and tablets. The combined in 2020 to over 3 billion by the end of 2026. 5G data plan. The majority of offerings,
capabilities provided by 5G networks and The strong growth in smartphone users from 19 communications service providers,
edge compute technologies will enable and the evolving capabilities of 4G and 5G are subscriptions to a gaming service
game streaming services on smartphones networks open a much larger addressable in partnership with a cloud gaming
with a quality of experience (QoE) on a par market for new gaming services. provider. The number of games included
with PC or console, and also open up for typically ranges from 30 to more than 100.
innovative, immersive mobile games Depending on the gaming service provider,
based on mobility. Market drivers for mobile game monthly subscription fees typically
streaming services include: range from USD 6–18. In addition, a few
Smartphones dwarf console sales • continued strong growth of communications service providers include
Although the mobile cloud gaming smartphone users zero-rating for gaming5 on some of their
market is still in its infancy, the wider • imminent deployment of premium data plans. Games included in
mobile games market is already large. 5G networks, with high user present service catalogs, occasionally
There are presently more than 2.4 billion data rates, network capacity marketed as a 5G cloud gaming offer,
mobile gamers globally, where Asia is the and emerging time-critical range from casual games to more complex
biggest market with over USD 41 billion in communications, or ultra-reliable multiplayer games. Many games presently
revenue.1 Mobile games generate about low-latency communication included can be played over a 4G network
50 percent of total global gaming industry (URLLC) and do not require 5G for a good gaming
revenues.2 In 2019, 33 percent of all app • increase of cloud data centers experience. However, immersive games
downloads worldwide were related to with large compute and storage are better experienced over 5G, as these
mobile games, accounting for 74 percent resources (central, edge) demand higher bandwidths and lower
of all consumer expenditure at the • increasing partnerships between (predictable) latency. An important
2 major digital distribution platforms for communications service providers, objective for partnerships between
the Android and iOS operating systems.3 edge cloud providers and cloud communications service providers and
gaming service providers cloud gaming providers is to explore
• new cloud gaming services how both 5G and 4G networks need to
launched by new and incumbent be managed and optimized to
(console) gaming service providers support high QoE.
• communications service providers
launching their own services
• future development of new types
of devices, based on AR, VR and XR
1
www.statista.com
2
www.dotcominfoway.com
3
App Annie, “The state of mobile 2019”.
4
Ericsson analysis, October 2020.
5
Traffic generated by the gaming service does not count against the subscriber’s monthly data plan.
26 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
Streaming games popular among including streaming VR (through goggles service provider, it brings predictability in
5G subscribers in South Korea connected to smartphones) and revenues and cash flow. Through digital
An interesting example of an evolving downloadable AR versions, on their own customer interaction and engagement,
gaming market is South Korea. It is ranked developed platforms. These are free of the improved customer understanding lets
the fourth largest mobile gaming market charge for 5G premium plan subscribers. them tailor their offerings per individual
after the US, China and Japan, and has a According to SK Telecom,7 5G subscribers subscriber rather than for customer
strong gaming culture, with professional are using game apps 2.7 times more often segments. Many gaming service providers
gamers dominating in international than 4G subscribers. To play games on are now including a subscription-based
esports competitions. With smartphone SK Telecom’s own developed cloud business model in their gaming portfolios.
penetration among the highest in the gaming platform, 55 percent of Agreements between communications
world, smartphones have become the smartphone gamers use Wi-Fi and service providers and gaming service
most popular gaming device. According to 45 percent cellular connectivity. providers vary by market, depending on
a 2020 Korean game user report,6 over the scope of collaboration. For example,
88 percent of mobile gamers play games The cloud gaming a communications service provider may
at least 2–3 days per week, whereas subscription model rules have an own-branded game offering,
44 percent play every day. The average Today, mobile gaming is dominated by based on a white-label solution from a
time of playing mobile games is casual gamers, but new segments will be cloud gaming service provider, or have
96 minutes per day on weekdays, and addressable as premium games with marketing- and channel-partnership
121 minutes per day on weekends. The high-quality experience become accessible agreements. These agreements may
three main South Korean communications from game publishers and communications include revenue sharing, but other
service providers have teamed up with service providers, without the need for important business drivers are new
major international gaming service dedicated and expensive hardware or customer acquisition and retention, and
providers, offering subscription-based PCs. One market challenge is to convert a differentiating value proposition to
mobile cloud game streaming services. casual players to paying subscriptions entice subscriber migration to 5G. There
For two of these subscriptions, it is not for gaming services. Subscription-based are also different approaches among
necessary to be a mobile subscriber to the business models for digital audio and video communications service providers with
specific communications service provider. streaming services have disrupted those own-branded game services; some offer
All three communications service providers industries, with millions of people willing exclusivity to loyal subscribers,
also provide access to their own portfolio to pay a monthly fee without becoming while others are open to all mobile users
of streaming and downloadable games, owners of DVDs or CDs. For the streaming in the market.
22
Of the 106 communications service
3
Premium data plans for 3 of the
providers with commercial 5G, 22 22 communications service providers
have a mobile cloud gaming offering. include zero-rating for gaming.
19
The cloud gaming service subscription
6–18
Cloud gaming monthly subscription
model is used by 19 out of the fees average USD 6–18 among the
22 communications service providers. 22 communications service providers.
6
Cloud gaming is bundled with
5G data plans by 6 out of the
22 communications service providers.
6
KOCCA, Korea Creative Content Agency.
7
February 2020.
27 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
Advanced gaming performance However, other cloud gaming platforms Considering the natural variation in radio
requirements open up stream fast-paced games with complex channel quality, game video streaming
new business opportunities graphics that require an average of 15Mbps must be adapted to changes in radio
Advanced gaming use cases with strong throughput with peaks of 25Mbps or network conditions, mobility (handovers),
network performance requirements will drive more. As games become faster and more buffering and more to ensure a good QoE
a need for premium connectivity and edge complex, even lower network latency and for different game categories. In the case
computing capabilities. These capabilities higher bandwidth will be required. More of video streaming, data is buffered in
could be offered by communications service time-critical cloud gaming use cases, the game client to allow for connectivity
providers directly to gaming providers, via such as first-person shooter games and variation. But for game streaming, the
or jointly with partners. However, this will fast multiplayer interactions, will require latency between game input and view is
also require new types of partnerships to 20–30ms end-to-end network latency, with important and does not allow for client
jointly address future mobile gaming use around 99.9 percent likelihood (reliability) buffering. Game streaming services can
case opportunities. Gaming ecosystem in both uplink and downlink, for a quality have adaptable qualities, but without
partnerships require high flexibility to cater experience. For an immersive VR gaming large media buffers, unstable network
for cost-efficient cooperation, in parallel with experience, the latency and reliability connectivity will impact QoE. The latency
a multitude of different gaming partners, all requirements are even more demanding. requirement for a specific gaming service is
having different requirements and interests. dependent on several factors, such as game
QoE can be game-changing genre, personal skills and delay acceptance.
Higher network performance requirements Different game genres have different data
as game complexity increases rates, latency and reliability requirements
Figure 25: Gamers’ reaction to
A large part of total cloud gaming traffic on mobile networks. A fast-moving,
gaming lag (network latency)
is expected to be transported over fixed first-person shooter game requires high
networks, as is the case for streaming reliability, low latency (time-critical)
video. However, 5G mobile and fixed communications, compared to a
wireless access (FWA) networks are also slow-moving strategy game that works
10% 5%
expected to carry a significant amount of well with the best-effort latency typically
future cloud gaming traffic. To stimulate required for mobile broadband services.
uptake of cloud gaming services, games Depending on the game genre, there are 26%
service providers would have to adapt to different expectations for QoE. Higher 24%
the capability of the mobile network and frame rate versus resolution is typically
devices, while maintaining the QoE. This preferred for first- and third-person
implies that a 4K resolution, real-time shooters, while high resolution is
video game, streamed over a fixed network preferred over frame rate for fantasy
connection to a large screen, could be games not requiring fast reaction times.
35%
downsized to a 720p video gaming stream
over a mobile network, without distorting
the QoE for most games played on a
smartphone. Streaming games consumes
5% – I always quit gaming
several times more data than a video
stream of equivalent quality. This is due to 26% – I sometimes quit gaming
the need for faster video encoding, which 35% – It affects, but I continue to play
helps maintain the required low latency 24% – It affects somewhat
during gameplay, but with a higher data 10% – It does not affect
rate. Some cloud-based gaming platform
providers recommend 10Mbps reliable
Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab (2019).
downlink throughput as the minimum for Base: At-least-weekly gamers aged 15–69 in
current games to be played over a mobile Brazil, China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK
network for a good QoE on a smartphone. and the US (7,000 respondents).
28 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
Figure 26: Share of gamers experiencing gaming lag (network latency) by game genre
50%
47%
42% 41%
36%
34% 33%
31%
Lag (network latency) is one of the most New games and gaming platform
common issues when playing online games requirements are becoming more Major functionalities for realizing
and has a strong impact on the level of demanding, and solutions that work for time-critical communications/URLLC
satisfaction with the gaming experience. regular video streaming are not enough for in the radio access network include:
In a ConsumerLab study, based on an advanced gaming use cases. As networks • network slicing
online survey with 7,000 consumers, evolve to 5G, time-critical communications • high-reliability link adaptation
90 percent of those who play video games will take cloud gaming to the next level. and scheduling
at least weekly were negatively affected Time-critical communications aims for data • uplink configured grant
by lag when playing, with at least delivery within a specified latency budget • RAN rate recommendation
1 in 3 sometimes quitting as a result. with a required guarantee; for example, • multiple transmission and
Gamers’ perceived experience of lag 50ms network latency with 99.9 percent reception points
depends on the type of game played; those reliability. It is fundamentally different from • redundant transmissions
requiring fast responses experience lag mobile broadband, which maximizes data • robust signal transmission formats
more often in comparison to other genres. rates without any guarantee on latency. • QoS-aware admission and
Communications service providers load control
5G will enable next-level gaming can add support for time-critical • instant preemption and
Just like video streaming, service providers communications to the 5G NR carriers prioritization mechanisms
are developing original content for their through software upgrades. The slicing • conditional handovers
subscribers. Cloud gaming providers could framework in 5G networks can reserve • dual active protocol stack
be expected to develop “5G original” cloud dedicated resources for gaming by • rapid retransmission protocols
streaming games, adapted to the specifics configuring and connecting computing • slot aggregation
of mobile devices (for example, small and networking resources across the radio,
screens and limited input options), but also transport and core networks. As networks
to the surrounding environment where a evolve towards more cloud native design,
mobile gamer is situated when playing with better flexibility in placement and
(new types of VR, AR games). By utilizing deployment of network functions (NFs),
the full range of sensors on a mobile parts of the game workloads can be
device, such as the camera, light sensors, collocated with the NFs to ensure gaming
GPS, accelerometer and sound, it could performance requirements are met.
sense the environment and contextualize it The time-critical communications
to adaptively generate new game content, ecosystem is starting to develop from 2021
enriching the gaming experience. with end-to-end network slicing and edge
computing. Major functionality growth for
time-critical communications is expected
over standalone 5G networks beyond 2021.
Cloud gaming represents the full
potential of 5G for both consumers and
businesses – gamers benefit from enriched
experiences, including lighter and more
affordable gaming devices, a longer
battery life and new immersive gaming
experiences, while communications
service providers get a wide range of new
business opportunities.
29 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
19%
The quality-led strategy is
28%
The offering-led strategy is
38%
The industry-led strategy is
deployed by 19 percent of deployed by 28 percent of deployed by 38 percent of
service providers – who lead in service providers – who challenge service providers – who focus on
network performance. with new services. value-for-money propositions.
1
ifteen percent of service providers scored low in the strategy elements analyzed, making
F
it unclear which strategy they were executing. These have been classified as “other”.
30 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
Latency (ms)
Speed (Mbps)
providers’ financial performance,
service offerings and network 2 50
performance has been extended by
cross-comparing the findings with
other owned studies or external
sources. Data was collected
during Q1–Q3 2020. 1 25
0 0
Quality-led Offering-led Industry-led Other
69% 45%
This indicates a skimming strategy in the
short term, targeting early adopters rather
than driving a quick uptake, whilst waiting
for the market to be ready. Similarly, the
Today, 69 percent of quality-led quality-led are more active in the area of The Middle East region has the
service providers have launched 5G fixed wireless access (FWA), leveraging highest proportion of quality-led
for smartphones commercially. network performance to complement or service providers with 45 percent.
directly compete against fixed networks.
Of these, nearly 80 percent have FWA
Differentiation through sustainable offerings on the market, compared to the Within Africa, offering-led is the most common
leadership in network performance average of 65 percent globally. Quality-led strategy, frequently offering a wide range of
Network performance data2 shows the service providers will look to maintain their services linked to mobile subscriptions such
throughput delivered with a 90 percent lead. Offering-led will have pressure to as gaming, mobile banking and insurance.
probability, meaning 90 percent of the improve in this area to support innovative The quality-led strategy was not found here,
samples have better performance than 5G services, like cloud gaming, that require similar to Central and South America.
shown in Figure 27. This illustrates that lower latency and higher bandwidth than Central and Eastern Europe deviates from
service providers with a quality-led often provided today by this group.3 the global average, with a significantly
approach successfully execute their A look at service offerings4 reveals higher share of industry-led service
strategies to build a network performance that offering-led service providers tend to providers and fewer quality-led service
gap, having significantly better results in couple network performance with specific providers. Previously state-owned
terms of downlink and uplink speeds as use cases and end-user expectations, incumbents in Central and Eastern Europe
well as lower latency. Both offering- and like promoting the best network for video typically held the number one position in the
industry-led service providers aim streaming. Quality-led providers, on the market with aspects of a quality-led
to have “good enough” network other hand, mainly focus on coverage strategy. However, the region shows a low
performance, trailing the quality-led and performance and are more likely to percentage of quality-led service providers
operators but not investing as heavily have promotions that leverage network globally, indicating that incumbents here
in network transformation. performance as well as their existing didn’t focus as much as their peers from
Today, 69 percent of the quality-led premium customer segments. other regions on network transformation,
service providers have launched 5G for and didn’t keep up investment levels to
smartphones commercially, leveraging Strategies follow regional score higher in our analysis. At the same
their position further through a moderate market conditions time, global service providers, primarily from
price premium on 5G. Only 31 percent of At about 45 percent, the Middle East has Western Europe, have often been acquiring
offering-led and 16 percent of industry-led the highest proportion of quality-led service the number two or three player in many of
have launched 5G. Although the offering-led providers, as the execution of this strategy the markets. With the added financial
group chose a price position very close to requires large investments in the network. support, they have then been able to move
the quality-led, the industry-led service Western Europe seems to have the largest their position to match or even take the lead
providers have a premium that is more than variation of strategies per market. in terms of network performance.
2
Source: Ericsson analysis on Speedtest Intelligence® data from Ookla®, (Q3 2020). Data represents the lowest performing 10 percent of samples.
3
Ericsson Mobility Report, ”Mobile cloud gaming – an evolving business opportunity” pp. 25–28 (November 2020).
4
More service offering choices for the consumer: www.ericsson.com/en/mobility-report/articles/service-offering-choices-for-the-consumer.
31 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
100
80
60
40
20
0
North South Central Central and Western Central Asia- Middle Africa
America America America Eastern Europe Europe Asia Pacific East
No. 1
financial KPIs the market leader commonly choosing a
The strategies give different outcomes quality-led strategy, whilst challengers
when cross-analyzed against performance tend to adopt an offering-led strategy.
metrics, illustrating how the strategies
support distinct business goals. Globally, Offering-led service providers often Selection and execution
industry-led is slightly ahead on revenue take the number one spot for the are key to success
growth, with the most service providers five-year revenue growth KPI. Service providers compete using distinct
amongst the top 50 in the world. strategies, which give different returns. By
Quality-led service providers, on the understanding their local market conditions
other hand, take a firm lead for EBITDA, The offering-led strategy takes the and business assets, best-in-class service
market share and ARPU leadership. The top spot most often when looking at providers challenge the market with a
same is true when looking at capex to five-year revenue growth. Quality-led focused competitive advantage, optimizing
sales ratio, which would be expected, service providers have the highest market their returns. Quality-led providers build
as the quality-led strategy is focused share as well as the best cash flow in the and maintain a sustainable gap in network
on network transformation and quality. majority of markets. They also have the performance, offering-led innovate with
highest ARPU closely followed by service offerings and customer experience
Quality-led service providers offering-led service providers. The management, while industry-led act as fast
perform best in local markets for industry-led strategy takes the top spot followers. All these strategies have their
four out of six KPIs for EBITDA, with quality-led just behind. advantages and disadvantages, and the
Studying local markets where we have One KPI that stands out is the market adoption of a certain strategy is carefully
financial data for two or more service share, where quality-led service providers considered by service providers based on
providers, and ranking each strategy based are taking the number one place in their specific situation.
on the performance in each financial KPI, more than half of the markets analyzed.
we can find out which strategy type takes Offering-led, on the other hand, places
which position in each market. third in 50 percent of the markets.
Figure 29: The ranking of service providers which lead in KPIs, in their respective local markets
Industry-led Offering-led Quality-led
O I Q Q Q Q
I Q I I O O
Q O O O I I
2nd 1st 3rd 2nd 1st 3rd 2nd 1st 3rd 2nd 1st 3rd 2nd 1st 3rd 2nd 1st 3rd
5-year growth EBITDA Market share Capex to sales ratio ARPU Cash flow
32 Methodology and glossary Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
Methodology
Forecast
methodology
Rounding of figures Mobile data traffic
Forecast methodology Mobile WiMAX. WCDMA without HSPA However, in some developing regions,
Ericsson makes forecasts on a regular basis and GPRS/EDGE are not included. it is common for several people to share
to support internal decisions and planning, FWA is defined as a connection that one subscription, for example via a
as well as market communications. The provides broadband access through a family- or community-shared phone.
forecast time horizon in the Mobility mobile network enabled customer
Report is six years and is moved forward premises equipment (CPE). This includes Mobile network traffic
one year in the November report each both indoor (desktop and window) and Ericsson regularly performs traffic
year. The subscription and traffic forecast outdoor (rooftop and wall-mounted) CPE. measurements in over 100 live networks
baseline in this report is established using It does not include portable battery-based covering all major regions of the world. These
historical data from various sources, Wi-Fi routers or dongles. measurements form a representative base
validated with Ericsson internal data, for calculating worldwide total mobile traffic.
including measurements in customer Rounding of figures More detailed measurements are made in
networks. Future developments are As figures are rounded, summing up a selected number of commercial networks
estimated based on macroeconomic data may result in slight differences with the purpose of understanding how
trends, user trends, market maturity and from the actual totals. In tables with key mobile data traffic evolves. No subscriber
technological advances. Other sources figures,subscriptions have been rounded data is included in these measurements.
include industry analyst reports, together to the nearest 10th of a million. However, Please note that the Ericsson Mobility
with internal assumptions and analyses. when used in highlights in the articles, Report data traffic forecast, both global and
Historical data may be revised if the subscriptions are usually expressed regional, represents the estimated traffic
underlying data changes – for example, in full billions or to one decimal place. volume in all networks over the duration of
if service providers report updated Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) a month. Traffic (in terms of throughput) in
subscription figures. is calculated on the underlying, high-traffic areas will be much higher than
unrounded numbers and is then rounded the average traffic.
Mobile subscriptions to the nearest full percentage figure.
Mobile subscriptions include all mobile Traffic volumes are expressed in two or Population coverage
technologies. Subscriptions are defined by three significant figures. Population coverage is estimated using
the most advanced technology that the a database of regional population and
mobile phone and network are capable of. Subscribers territory distribution, based on population
Our mobile subscriptions by technology There is a large difference between the density. This is then combined with
findings divide subscriptions according numbers of subscriptions and subscribers. proprietary data on the installed base of
to the highest-enabled technology they This is because many subscribers have radio base stations (RBS), together with
can be used for. LTE subscriptions, in most several subscriptions. Reasons for this estimated coverage per RBS for each of
cases, also include the possibility for the could include users lowering traffic costs by six population density categories (from
subscription to access 3G (WCDMA/HSPA) using optimized subscriptions for different metro to wilderness). Based on this, the
and 2G (GSM or CDMA in some markets) types of calls, maximizing coverage and portion of each area that is covered by a
networks. A 5G subscription is counted as having different subscriptions for mobile certain technology can be estimated, as
such when associated with a device that PCs/tablets and mobile phones. In addition, well as the percentage of the population
supports New Radio as specified in 3GPP it takes time before inactive subscriptions it represents. By aggregating these areas,
Release 15, and connected to a 5G-enabled are removed from service provider world population coverage per technology
network. Mobile broadband includes radio databases. Consequently, subscription can be calculated.
access technologies HSPA (3G), LTE (4G), penetration can be above 100 percent,
5G, CDMA2000 EV-DO, TD-SCDMA and which is the case in many countries today.
33 Methodology and glossary Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
Glossary
2G: 2nd generation mobile networks FDD: Frequency division duplex Mobile router: A device with a cellular
(GSM, CDMA 1x) network connection to the internet and
GB: Gigabyte, 109 bytes Wi-Fi or Ethernet connection to one or
3G: 3rd generation mobile networks several clients (such as PCs or tablets)
(WCDMA/HSPA, TD-SCDMA, CDMA Gbps: Gigabits per second
EV-DO, Mobile WiMAX) NB-IoT: A 3GPP standardized low-power
GHz: Gigahertz, 109 hertz wide-area (LPWA) cellular technology for
3GPP: 3rd Generation Partnership Project (unit of frequency) IoT connectivity
4G: 4th generation mobile networks GSA: Global mobile Suppliers Association NFV: Network functions virtualization
(LTE, LTE-A)
GSM: Global System for NR: New Radio as defined
4K: In video, a horizontal display Mobile Communications by 3GPP Release 15
resolution of approximately 4,000 pixels.
A resolution of 3840 × 2160 (4K UHD) is GSMA: GSM Association OEM: Original equipment manufacturer
used in television and consumer media.
In the movie projection industry, HSPA: High speed packet access OT: Operational technology
4096 × 2160 (DCI 4K) is dominant
Kbps: Kilobits per second PB: Petabyte, 1015 bytes
5G: 5th generation mobile networks
(IMT-2020) LTE: Long-Term Evolution Short-range IoT: Segment that largely
consists of devices connected by unlicensed
App: A software application that MB: Megabyte, 106 bytes radio technologies, with a typical range of
can be downloaded and run on up to 100 meters, such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth
a smartphone or tablet Mbps: Megabits per second and Zigbee
AR: Augmented reality. An interactive MHz: Megahertz, 106 hertz SLA: Service level agreement
experience of a real-world environment (unit of frequency)
whereby the objects that reside in the Smartphone: Mobile phone with OS
real world are “augmented” by MIMO: Multiple Input Multiple Output capable of downloading and running
computer-generated information is the use of multiple transmitters and ”apps“, e.g. iPhones, Android OS phones,
receivers (multiple antennas) on wireless Windows phones and also Symbian and
CAGR: Compound annual growth rate devices for improved performance Blackberry OS
Cat-M1: A 3GPP standardized low-power mmWave: Radio waves in the extremely TD-SCDMA: Time division-synchronous
wide-area (LPWA) cellular technology high frequency range. In 5G, mmWave code-division multiple access
for IoT connectivity refers to frequencies between
24 and 71GHz TDD: Time division duplex
CDMA: Code-division multiple access
Mobile broadband: Mobile data service VoIP: Voice over IP (Internet Protocol)
dB: In radio transmission, a decibel is a using radio access technologies including
logarithmic unit that can be used to sum 5G, LTE, HSPA, CDMA2000 EV-DO, VoLTE: Voice over LTE as defined by
up total signal gains or losses from a Mobile WiMAX and TD-SCDMA GSMA IR.92 specification
transmitter to a receiver
Mobile PC: Defined as laptop or desktop WCDMA: Wideband code-division
EB: Exabyte, 1018 bytes PC devices with built-in cellular modem multiple access
or external USB dongle
EBITDA: Earnings before interest, taxes, Wide-area IoT: Segment made up
depreciation, and amortization of devices using cellular connections
or unlicensed low-power technologies
EDGE: Enhanced Data Rates like Sigfox and LoRa
for Global Evolution
34 Global and regional key figures Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2020
LTE subscriptions
North America 350 350 80 -21% million
Latin America 340 390 390 0% million
Western Europe 380 410 150 -15% million
Central and Eastern Europe 240 280 350 4% million
North East Asia 1,800 1,730 700 -14% million
China1 1,230 1,410 530 -15% million
South East Asia and Oceania 390 470 700 7% million
India, Nepal and Bhutan 550 710 820 2% million
Middle East and North Africa 170 210 440 13% million
Sub-Saharan Africa 90 120 290 15% million
5G subscriptions
North America 1 14 340 - million
Latin America 0 1 180 - million
Western Europe 1 6 350 - million
Central and Eastern Europe 0 0 200 - million
North East Asia 9 193 1,470 - million
China1 5 175 1,220 - million
South East Asia and Oceania 0 2 380 - million
India, Nepal and Bhutan 0 0 350 - million
Middle East and North Africa 1 1 130 - million
Sub-Saharan Africa 0 0 50 - million