Basic Monte Carlo Simulator

Monte Carlo Simulator

INPUTS IN LT. BLUE
Base Starting Equity $ 10,000 RESULTS IN YELLOW
Stop Trading if Equity Drops Median Median $
Below $ 5,625 Start Equity Ruin Drawdown prof Median Return Return/DD

# Trades, 1 Year 167 $10,000 11% 28.1% $15,488 155% 5.51

System Name Gen 3 - Mini S&P Only $12,500 3% 23.9% $15,675 125% 5.29
$15,000 1% 21.3% $15,540 104% 4.95
$17,500 0% 18.8% $15,914 91% 4.72
Inidivdual Trade Results $20,000 0% 17.0% $15,824 79% 4.68
Profit/Loss $22,500 0% 15.6% $15,845 70% 4.42
($317.50) $25,000 0% 14.3% $16,075 64% 4.52
($892.50) $27,500 0% 12.9% $15,903 58% 4.36
($155.00) $30,000 0% 12.4% $15,443 51% 4.23
$432.50 $32,500 0% 11.7% $15,789 49% 4.15
$282.50 $35,000 0% 10.7% $15,940 46% 4.27
($292.50)
$32.50 Annual Rate of Return Annual Rate of Return / Drawdown

$282.50 1.8 6
$915.00 1.6
5
Annual Rate of Return

$107.50 1.4

Return/Drawdown
$665.00 1.2 4
$495.00 1
3
$795.00 0.8
$732.50 0.6 2
($1,390.00) 0.4
$1,052.50 1
0.2
$595.00 0 0
($55.00) $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000
Start Equity Start Equity
($55.00)
$345.00 www.kjtradingsystems.com
$195.00
$1,190.00
($992.50)

02/15/2021 Copyright - Kevin Davey and www.kjtradingsystems.com

Instructions for using the Simple Monte Carlo spreadsheet

Copyright - Kevin J. Davey and www.kjtradingsystems.com

If you don't know much about Monte Carlo simulation, please google the term and read up on it.
This spreadsheet is intended for those with at least a basic understanding of the concept.

NOTE: All calculations are believed to be accurate, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
USE THIS TOOL AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Since this is a free tool, and I am primarily a trader, I'm sorry but I cannot answer your questions,
or evaluate your results.

Steps:
1. Hit the clear button to remove any trades.
2. Fill in the light blue boxes with appropriate values for start equity, ruin point and number of trades.
3. Paste your trades into the light blue column on the left. One trade per row.
4. Click "Calculate!" Simulator will run 2500 times for each equity value, always trading one contract
per trade. This lets you see how good system is, before any position sizing is applied.
5. Output Description:
There are 11 different simulation runs presented in the yellow table, each with a different starting
equity value. This allows you to see the impact of starting capital on drawdown and rate of return.

Start Equity: this is simply the equity you begin the simulation with.
Ruin: this is the percent chance of ruin. For example, 70% means you have a 70% chance that
within the first year your closed trade equity will drop below the value in cell B3. You want this
number to be as low as possible.
Median Drawdown: Based on 2,500 simulation runs, you have a 50% chance that your maximum
drawdown in the first year will be greater than the value shown. You want this number to be as low
as possible. Remember, even with this drawdown value, you are running a significant risk that
your drawdown will actually be higher.
Median Profit: Based on 2,500 simulation runs, you have a 50% chance that your maximum
profit in the first year will be greater than the value shown. You want this number to be as high
as possible. Remember, even with this profit value, you are running a significant risk that
your profit will actually be lower.
Median Return: Based on 2,500 simulation runs, you have a 50% chance that your maximum
% return in the first year will be greater than the value shown. You want this number to be as high
as possible. Remember, even with this return value, you are running a significant risk that
your return will actually be lower.
Return/DD Ratio: Closely related to the Calmar ratio. You want this number as high as possible.
Thanks for using my Simple Monte Carlo spreadsheet. I use it practically everyday. I hope
you do too.

I made this tool available because with so much misleading information on trading and
speculating out there, people need somewhere to go to get the straight facts.
I believe my website, www.kjtradingsystems.com, is just the place.

You won't find over inflated claims or ridiculous statements there. You will find down to earth
articles, videos and information that can help you become a better trader.

And maybe you'll determine that you need someone helping you trade - my site can help
with that, too. You can follow my trades, in your accounts, under your control. It is
pretty easy to set up, and works pretty well. Of course, past performance is no guarantee
of future results, but I like my chances at trading - after all, first and foremost I am a trader.
Just visit my website for details.

If you need a more complicated, feature packed Monte Carlo spreadsheet, you'll find one for sale
on my site. I use that one everyday, too.

Thanks again for using this spreadsheet.

Happy Trading!

Kevin Davey
KJ Trading Systems
www.kjtradingsystems.com
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has larg
potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest
futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Se
stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses sim
those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of
results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE
ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE TH
TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPAC
ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERA
ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATIO
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES
TO THOSE DISCUSSED WITHIN THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISION
SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.

Email: kdavey at kjtradingsystems.com

(c) Copyright - KJ Trading Systems. All Rights Reserved Worldwide.