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(1) Thinks they will be a new terrible outbreak of animal related diseases
(2) Because there is little buffer left between humans and animals – distance has
shrunk more and more, increasing the chance of a quickly spreading pandemic
(3) Global travel and globalization
b) Pandemics throughout human history
There have always been pandemics
Always played a big role in shaping history – contributing the popularity of Buddhism
and Christianity
Looking at the old testament, reliable records of the Greek historian Uridices
The plague killed ¼ of the population of Athens
i) Detailed account of a devastating plague that ravaged Athens in 430 B.C.E.
Athens was very packed with people – huge population density
ii) Small-pox and measles in the Roman and Han empires in the 2nd century AD
Massive outbreaks killing large portions of the populations of these two peoples
iii) 6th century AD bubonic plague in the city of Constantinople
Good records, people dying by the 1000s per day
Symptoms: Headaches, swelling of lymph nodes, terrible sores
iv) Spanish Flu of 1918
Killed around 50million to 100million people around the world
Killed 3X more people than the war – about 5% of the world population
v) 16th century introduction of Old World diseases to the New World
Diseases when the Portuguese and the Spaniards bringing smallpox and measles to
populations that had no immunities
70%-90% attrition rate of populations as a result of these diseases
Syphilis and other diseases brought back to the Old World
Main point is that diseases have always been significant to the progression of history
If or when the next pandemic comes how will our world respond? Heavier dose of
communal wisdom or survival instinct? With more other-centeredness or self-
centeredness?
a) Ripe Preconditions
i) Demographic changes
(1) Warming Trend from 800 to 1200 AD
Provided ripe areas for the growth of disease
Population explosion in much of Eurasia
Even places like Greenland could grow agriculture
Increased population density