Tugas Personal ke-3

Minggu 08 / Session 09

The PT Geo Teknika (GT) owns a tract of land that may contain oil. A consulting geologist
has reported to management that he believes there is oil with probability of 0.2. Because of
this prospect, another oil company has offered to purchase the land for $120,000. However,
PT GT is considering holding the land in order to drill for oil itself. The cost of drilling is
$150,000. If oil is found, the resulting expected revenue will be $1,050,000, so the
company’s expected profit (after deducting the cost of drilling) will be $900,000. A loss of
$150,000 (the drilling cost) will be incurred if the land is dry (no oil).
Table 1 summarizes these data. Determine the decision of whether to drill or sell based just
on these data.

Table1: Prospective profits for the PT Geo Teknika (GT).

Status of Land Payoff

Alternative Oil Dry

Drill for oil $ 900,000 -$150,000

Sell the land $ 120,000 $ 120,000

Probability of status 0.2 0.8

ISYE9001 - Engineering Optimization

Jawab :

DECISION MAKING WITHOUT EXPERIMENTATION

Status of
Payoff
Land minimum
Alternative Oil Dry
Drill for oil 900 -150 -150
Sell the land 120 120 120 maximin
Probability
0,2 0,80
of status

Status of
Payoff
Land minimum
Alternative Oil Dry
Drill for oil 900 -150 -150
Sell the land 120 120 120 maximum in this column
Prior
0,2 0,80
Probability
maximum

Bayes Decision Rule

E[Payoff (drill)] = 60,00

E[Payoff (sell)] = 120,00

karena pay off drill < pay off sell, maka alternatif action adalah menjual tanah

ISYE9001 - Engineering Optimization