Data Low Base High

Revenue If Oil 800 600 800 1000

Drilling Cost 100 80 100 120
Selling Cost 90 70 90 110
Seismic Survey Cost 30 20 30 40
Revenue If Dry 0

EP Without More Info 100

EP With Prefect Info 242.5

EVPI 142.5

Seismic Survey Worthwhile Worthwhile

EP With More Info 153

EVSI 53

Cost of Seismic Survey

Worthwhile Worth while

Final Expected Payoff 123

Action Do Survey

IF Do Survey
IF FSS Drill
IF USS Sell
 Payoff Matrix Oil Dry
Drill 700 -100
Sell 90 90

Prior Probability 0.25 0.75

Maximum Payoff 700 90

Conditional Probability Oil Dry

FSS 0.6 0.2
USS 0.4 0.8

Joint Probability Oil Dry Unconditional Probability

FSS 0.15 0.15 0.3
USS 0.1 0.6 0.7

Posterior Probability Oil Dry

FSS
0.5 0.5
USS 0.142857 0.857143

IF Continue without
Survey
Drill
SensIt 1.61, Only For Student Use
Many Inputs, One Output TreePlan.com
Single-Factor Sensitivity Analysis

Date 2/12/2022 Workbook Goferbroke.xlsx

Time 1:45:12 AM Output Cell Data!$C$22

Final Expected Payoff

Corresponding Input Value Output Value Percent
Input Variable Low Output Base Case High Output Low Base High Swing Swing^2
Revenue If Oil 600 800 1000 93 123 153 60 73.1%
Selling Cost 70 90 110 109 123 137 28 15.9%
Seismic Survey Cost 40 30 20 113 123 133 20 8.1%
Drilling Cost 120 100 80 117 123 129 12 2.9%

SensIt 1.61 Student Version

Revenue If Oil 93 153

Selling Cost 109 137

Seismic Survey Cost 113 133

Drilling Cost 117 129

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170

Final Expected Payoff

SensIt Student Version, Not Licensed For Commercial Use TreePlan.com

SensIt 1.61, Only For Student Use
Many Inputs, One Output
Single-Factor Sensitivity Analysis

Date 2/12/2022 Workbook Goferbroke.xlsx

Time 1:45:16 AM Output Cell Data!$C$22

Final Expected Payoff

Corresponding Input Value Input Value as % of Base Output Value
Input Variable Low Output Base Case High Output Low % Base % High % Low Base High Swing
Revenue If Oil 600 800 1000 75.0% 100.0% 125.0% 93 123 153 60
Selling Cost 70 90 110 77.8% 100.0% 122.2% 109 123 137 28
Seismic Survey Cost 40 30 20 133.3% 100.0% 66.7% 113 123 133 20
Drilling Cost 120 100 80 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 117 123 129 12

SensIt 1.61 Student Version

170

160

150

140
Final Expected Payoff

130
Revenue If Oil
Selling Cost
Seismic Survey Cost
120 Drilling Cost

110

100

90

80
50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% 110.0% 120.0% 130.0% 140.0% 150.0%

Input Value as % of Base Case

SensIt Student Version, Not Licensed For Commercial Use TreePlan.com

 TreePlan Student License

Drill

-100 270
0.3
FSS
1
0 270

Sell

90 60
Do Survey

-30 123

Drill

-100 -15.71429
0.7
USS
2
0 60

1 Sell
123
90 60

0.25
Oil

Drill 800 700

-100 100 0.75

Dry
Not Do Survey
1 0 -100
0 100

Sell

TreePlan Student License, For Education Only TreePlan.com

 90 90

TreePlan Student License, For Education Only TreePlan.com

 0.5 For Education Only
Oil
670
800 670

0.5
Dry
-130
0 -130

60

0.142857
Oil
670
800 670

0.857143
Dry
-130
0 -130

60

700

-100

TreePlan Student License, For Education Only TreePlan.com

 90

TreePlan Student License, For Education Only TreePlan.com

 ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS
0 0 TreePlan 0 0 0D 2
0 1 0 0E 2
0 2 0 0D 2
2 3 1D 2
0 4 1D 2
13 5 0 3E 2
14 6 0 3T 0
15 7 5T 0
16 8 5T 0
0 9 0 4E 2
0 10 0 4T 0
0 11 9T 0
0 12 9T 0
13 0 2E 2
14 0 2T 0
15 13 T 0
16 13 T 0

TreePlan Student License, For Education Only TreePlan.com

S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
1 2 0 0 0 26 1 1
3 4 0 0 0 15 5 1
13 14 0 0 0 38 5 1
5 6 0 0 0 8 9 1
9 10 0 0 0 23 9 1
7 8 0 0 0 4 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 12 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 2 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 7 17 1
11 12 0 0 0 19 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 27 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 17 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 22 17 1
15 16 0 0 0 34 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 42 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 32 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 37 13 1

TreePlan Student License, For Education Only TreePlan.com

SensIt 1.61, Only For Student Use
One Input, One Output
SensIt 1.61 Student Version
Date 2/12/2022 180
Time 1:37:55 AM
Workbook Goferbroke.xlsx 170
Input Cell Data!$G$7
Output Cell Data!$C$22 160

Prior Probability Final Expected Payoff 150

0.15 90

Final Expected Payoff

0.17 94.3432835820895 140
0.19 102.130434782609
0.21 109.478873239437 130
0.23 116.424657534247
0.25 123 120
0.27 129.233766233766
0.29 135.151898734177 110
0.31 148
0.33 164 100
0.35 180
90
0.14 0.19 0.24 0.29 0.34
Prior Probability

SensIt Student Version, Not Licensed For Commercial Use TreePlan.com