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From COVID-19 to COVID-21

Preprint · February 2021

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.17579.36648

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University of Malaya
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 From COVID-19 to COVID-21
Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada
University of Economics and Human Sciences
Okopowa 59, 01-043 Warszawa, Poland
E-mail: marioarturoruiz@gmail.com or m.ruizestrada@vizja.pl
&
Social Wellbeing Research Centre (SWRC)
University of Malaya
50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Email: marioruiz@um.edu.my
Tel: +006012-6850293

Abstract
This research evaluates the constant evolution and adaptation of the original COVID-19 in
different parts of the world until today. We are interested to move far to study the continuous
transformation from COVID-19 (the year 2019) to COVID-21 (the year 2021). This research
aims to prove that the original COVID-19 always keeps in a constant transform in different
places and periods, respectively. This research believes that the original COVID-19 keeps a
constant mutation that can change its behavior and trend. The original COVID-19 is different
from the COVID-21. We want to change the nomenclature of the original COVID-19 yearly,
for example for the year 2021, we want to nominate “COVID-21.” We assume that the
COVID-21 is going to be more potent and complex than the original COVID-19 and COVID-
20 (the year 2020). It is according to our preliminary results in our simulator. According to this
research, we are considering that the COVID-21 started massively from January 2021 until the
end of December 2021. The COVID transformation in different years (2019, 2020, and 2021)
are not only in the symptoms but also in its way of transmission, treatments, eradication, and
vaccination subsequently.

Keywords: COVID-19, COVID-20, COVID-21, Transmission, Controls, Eradication

JEL: B41

1. Introduction

Since the first appearance of COVID-19 in the year 2019 in the province of Wuhan,
China. We never imagine the COVID-19 became a massive and global pandemic that arrived
in each corner of the world. Its impact in different continents, regions, and countries brings
unimaginable negative effects on the health and socio-economic context. The fast expansion
of COVID-19 worldwide generated considerable speculation and uncertainty in different social
groups simultaneously. The considerable speculation and uncertainty in different social groups
that originated from the COVID-19 panic and isolation that significantly impacted human
behavior materialized by scaring and marginalization.
 However, we can observe that the dramatic changes of the society pre-COVID-19 and
post-COVID-19 are real with irreparable damages in different spheres such as social,
economic, technological, physiological, and environmental. The dramatic changes in all these
spheres are making a new socio-economic-political order that we can be called "The New Post-
Modern Social Isolation Welfare State." This new order shows a further economic, social,
political, and technological restructuring at different social levels. The new order is based on
the isolation and pro-domestic agendas to solve and prioritize the national problems and create
a new production model, distribution, and consumption. The main objective is to focus on
creating a dynamic and suitable socio-economic scheme for the post-COVID-19 recovery.
According to our preliminary observations, international trade and cargo will always keep in
constant growth. But in foreign workers, international students, and tourism will experience an
abrupt breakdown that has never been seen before. From now each country's priority will focus
on the national labour and human capital. The case of Domestic tourism is going to be a priority
until the COVID-19 is under control. According to scientific reports, complete control of
COVID-19 will take longer, between seven to eight years (James, 2020).

This paper's intuition is that between seven and eight years, the COVID-19 is going to
be always in a constant transformation year by year. We have that new COVID-19 has new
strains such as the U.K. and South Africa case recently. Our perception is that the new strains
of COVID-19 can follow certain patterns according to the season, environment, health care,
diet and nutrition levels, and geographical location. Therefore, we need a new nomenclature
to classified and identified different phases of the original COVID-19 using its generic title
under COVID, the present year, and the country name subsequently. For example, in the case
of COVID in the U.S. in the year 2021 needs to be named COVID-21-U.S. We suggest that
this new nomenclature is based on the number of infected patients from COVID in a specific
year and the country for evaluation reasons. Finally, we have the intention to evaluate the
transformations from COVID-19 to COVID-21, respectively.

This research paper assumes that the COVID-19 always keeps in a constant
transformation qualitatively and quantitatively in different regions and countries. At the same
time, we can observe common factors in the spread of COVID-19 followed by Transportation
systems and tourism; Significant flows of legal and illegal immigration; The domestic control
procedures (police); Cultural, habits, and education levels; Government efficiency and
corruption levels; Healthcare and hospitals systems; Basic diet and calories levels, and life
expectancy; Pharmaceutical industry development; Socio-economic welfare programs and
social security programs; The level of access to electronic mass media and information sources.
The next section presents the methodological part under the introduction to the Mega-Dynamic
Disks Random Simulator in Vertical position. Last but not least, we give our final results using
the database from World Health Organization (WHO, 2021) and finally, our conclusions.
 2. An Introduction to the Mega-Dynamic Disks Random Simulator in Vertical
Position
Initially, the mega-dynamic disks random simulator in vertical position (Ruiz Estrada, 2017)
proposes a new simulator to calculate and visualize a large amount of data. The basic conditions
to use the mega-dynamic disks random simulator is based on the application of Omnia Mobilis
Assumption (Ruiz Estrada, 2011) and Dynamic Imbalance State -DIS- (Ruiz Estrada, 2013).
Firstly, this specific simulator shows one single vertical straight axis that is pending among all
endogenous variables. Hence, we are available to plotting our endogenous variable on this
single vertical straight axis that is represented by αv+/-. Secondly, each exogenous variable in
analysis is represented by its specific coordinate system such as βΦi:ζj. Where “Φi” represents
the sub-space level in analysis, in this case either from sub-space level zero (SS0°) to sub-space
level infinite (SS360°); “ζj” represents the disk level in analysis at the same quadrant of
exogenous variables (in our case, from disk level j=1, disk level j=2, disk level j=3,…, to disk
level j=∞…). In fact, we assume that all exogenous variables are using only real positive
numbers (R+). In order to plot different exogenous variables in the mega-dynamic disks random
simulator in vertical position, each value need to be plotted directly on its radial subspace in
analysis (Φi) and disk level in analysis (ζj) respectively. Each “i” is a radius that emanates from
the origin and in defined by the angle which can range from 0 to just before 360°, a theoretical
infinite range. Each disk is a concentric circle that starts from the origin outwards towards a
theoretical infinite value. At the same time, all these values plotted in different axis levels in
analysis (Φi) and disk levels in analysis (ζj) need to be joined with its endogenous variable
“αV+/-” until we build a series of simulations. All these simulations need to be joined by straight
lines until yields an asymmetric spiral-shaped geometrical figure with n-faces (see Figure 1)
and disk levels in analysis (ζj) need to be joined together by straight lines directly to the
endogenous variable αV+/- until a cone-shaped figure with n-faces is built (see Figure 2). It is
important to mention at this juncture that the endogenous variables “α v+/-” is fixed according
to any change associated with its corresponding exogenous variables in βΦi:ζj, where i = {0°,
1°, 2°,…,360°} and j = {0, 1, 2,…,∞…} , αV+/-. Hence, we can imagine a large number of
exogenous variables moving all the time in different positions within its radius in real time
continuously. At the same time, we can visualize how all these exogenous variables directly
effect on the behavior the endogenous variable (αv+/-) simultaneously. Αv+/- is fixed according
to any change can be occurred among the infinite exogenous variables in βΦi:ζj, where i = {0°,
1°, 2°,…,360°} and j = {0, 1, 2,…,∞…}, YV+/-. Hence, we can imagine a large number of infinite
exogenous variables moving all the time in different positions within its radius in real time
continuously. At the same time, we can visualize how all these exogenous variables are
affecting directly on the behavior of the endogenous variable (αv+/-) simultaneously. Moreover,
the endogenous variable (αv+/-) can fluctuate freely (see Figure 1). In our case, the endogenous
variables (αv+/-) can show positive/negative properties according to our multidimensional
graphical simulator. In the case of exogenous variables, these can only experience non-negative
properties. The mega-dynamic disks multivariable random simulator in vertical position is
represented by:
(βΦi:ζj, αv+/-) where βΦi:ζj ≥ 0; i = θ° ; j =R+ ≥ 0; αv+/-= R+/- (1)

Αv+/- = ƒ (βΦi:ζj) (2)

Fig. 1
The Mega-Dynamic Disks Random Simulator in Vertical Position

Source: Ruiz Estrada (2017)

3. The Evaluation from COVID-19 to COVID-21 under the Application of the Mega-
Dynamic Disks Random Simulator in Vertical Position

This section evaluates a long list of COVID-19 cases in different continents, regions,
and countries. It is possible to observe some unique characteristics about the COVID-19
behavior globally until today. If we evaluate COVID-19 behavior in 2020 and 2021, then we
can follow that the original COVID-19 is keeping a constant mutation according to different
weathers, temperatures, climates, pollution levels, and environmental issues. This research
takes into account three large regions, fifteen countries, and sixteen thousand cases. The sixteen
thousand cases were selected from Asia (Japan, China, South Korea, Malaysia, and Singapore),
America (Argentina, Canada, U.S., Mexico, Guatemala, Chile), and Europe (Spain, Italy,
France, Germany, U.K.) to evaluate the trend of COVID-19 in different phases.
 According to the preliminary results in this research, usually, COVID-19 shows a
period of symptoms (incubation) between one week and two weeks. In this research, we
evaluate the symptoms (incubation) time framework (in weeks) in three different continents
and sixteen countries under the calculation of the average weeks of symptoms (incubation) in
three different periods followed by the COVID-19 incubation in Asia (in general two weeks),
America (one week), and Europe (one week) in winter. But in summer, the incubation
(symptoms) can experience different continents, countries, and periods such as the case of Asia
(two weeks), America (two weeks), and Europe (two weeks). Additionally, we also need to
consider a new way of transmission and treatments by continent and country. Besides, we can
observe that the immunization system of each potential or active patient is heterogeneous. The
immunization system in any part of the world results from a constant qualitative and
quantitative transformation of our diet and calorie levels in the long run (generation by
generation). This research supports the premise of a robust immunization system depends on
the diet and calories, environment, weather adaptability, climate change, and genetically
(DNA) according to the region and country.

Therefore, this research paper requests to open a new stage in studying the COVID-19
evolution per year. This new stage can be called COVID-21 (the year 2021). The idea to
introduce COVID-21 is to include a systematic evaluation to evaluate new transmission,
controls, treatments, and a possible vaccine according to different periods and places. The idea
to have COVID-21 is to extend the study of the original COVID-19 until today from a holistic
approach because we assume that the original COVID-19 is continuously transforming year by
year. Our premise is that the original COVID-19 will generate different periods of incubation
by region or country until we can find a globally appropriate standardized vaccination. If
COVID-19 continues longer among us, it can always create a new mutation of its structural
composition until the same virus cannot be controlled and eliminated globally. We want to
suggest a new nomenclature to study the COVID-19 according to year and country. We can
follow this pattern, such as the COVID-20-X (COVID for the year 2020 in the country -X-).
For example, The COVID-19-U.S., COVID-20-U.S., COVID-21-U.S., and COVID-until its
last year-U.S. successively.

In figure 2 gives impressive results from our simulator based on the uses of Wolfram
Mathematica 12. The simulator (algorithm) is running two large scenarios followed by
Scenario-1: COVID-20 (January-December) and Scenario-2: COVID-21 (January-February).
In each scenario was applied to three continents and sixteen countries. Simultaneously, we
assess small groups (1000 patients) that keep the same symptoms and recovery time
framework. Each small group was represented by a small cube in red, yellow, and green colour
in the application of the mega-dynamic disks random simulator in vertical position. Each colour
was applied is to identify different groups with the same characteristics of symptoms,
sanitation, treatment, and period recovery (age and gender). We can observe that each continent
and each country presents its features of COVID-20 and COVID-21 according to our
preliminary results.

Finally, this research support that the evaluation, control, and vaccination of COVID-
19, COVID-20, and COVID-21 needs a holistic approach according to different periods (time)
and geographically (by continent and country) urgently. The idea to evaluate COVID-19,
COVID-20, and COVID-21 by periods or stages requests to designate a new nomenclature and
research approach to follow its trajectory carefully and possible future paths because the
COVID-19, COVID-20, and COVID-21 prove how vulnerable our world behaves and reacts
in different stages of any global pandemic. Our responsibility is to continue evaluating new
causes and possible solutions to eradicate this global pandemic before losing full control of the
expansion of this deadly virus globally.

Fig. 2. The Evaluation of COVID-19 and COVID-20 by Continent and Country

Source: WHO (2021)

Note: The Calculations and Graph is from the Author.
 4. Recommendations

Our final findings show that the original COVID-19 can transform qualitatively and
quantitatively anytime and anywhere. At the same time, each region and country can
experience different incubation periods, symptoms, sanitation, treatment, periods of recovery
(by age and gender), and alternative vaccines. Therefore, this research wants to suggest that the
original COVID-19 needs to be evaluated year by year. At the same time, continent by
continent. We offer a new nomenclature and research approach to promptly find different
mechanisms of control and regional vaccination systems implementation before the original
COVID-19 can become more robust and stoppable with irreversible losses of human lives and
economic damages, respectively.

References

James, J. (2020). From COVID-19 to COVID-20: One Virus, two diseases. Disaster Medicine
and Public Health Preparedness, 1-5. Doi:10.1017/dmp/2020.363

Ruiz Estrada, M.A. (2011). “Policy Modeling: Definition, Classification and Evaluation”.
Journal of Policy Modeling, 33(4); 523-536.

Ruiz Estrada, M.A. and Yap, S.F. (2013). “The origins and evolution of policy modeling”.
Journal of Policy Modeling, 35(1): 170-182.

Ruiz Estrada, M.A., (2017). “An alternative graphical modeling for economics:
Econographicology”, Quality and Quantity, 51(5): 2115–2139

World Health Organization (WHO) and Worldometer (2021).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/guatemala/ Accessed on January 5, 2021.

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