Journal Pre-proof

Multi-zonal transmission dynamics of pandemic covid-19 and its

stability

Nita H. Shah , Ankush H. Suthar , Ekta N. Jayswal

PII: S2666-4496(20)30028-1
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnlssr.2020.11.002
Reference: JNLSSR 20

To appear in: Journal of Safety Science and Resilience

Received date: 10 June 2020

Revised date: 15 November 2020
Accepted date: 19 November 2020

Please cite this article as: Nita H. Shah , Ankush H. Suthar , Ekta N. Jayswal , Multi-zonal transmis-
sion dynamics of pandemic covid-19 and its stability, Journal of Safety Science and Resilience (2020),
doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnlssr.2020.11.002

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 Multi-zonal transmission dynamics of pandemic covid-19 and its stability
1,*
Nita H. Shah, 2Ankush H. Suthar, 3Ekta N. Jayswal
1,2,3
Department of Mathematics, Gujarat University, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat, India
Email: 1nitahshah@gmail.com, 2ankush.suthar1070@gmail.com
3
jayswal.ekta1993@gmail.com
*
Corresponding author

Abstract
At the end of 2019, the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak was identified in Wuhan
city of China. Because of its profoundly infectious nature, it was converted into a pandemic
in a very short period. Globally, 6,291,764 COVID-19 confirmed cases, and a total of
374,359 deaths are reported as of 1st June 2020; nevertheless, the circumstances become
more and more critical over time. Controlling this global pandemic has necessitated extensive
strategies putting into practice. Based on the intensity of the epidemic, the model
discriminates area into three different types of zones, and this distinction is crucial to
construct various effective strategies for all three types of zones separately. The threshold
value of the COVID-19 based on the data from zone-wise distribution of Indian districts from
15th April to 3rd May 2020 is calculated. Furthermore, the model is modified in a multi-
group model to analyse the global transmission of COVID-19. Optimal control theory is
applied to the model. Five control strategies are included based on the level of intensity of
COVID-19.
Keywords: COVID-19, mathematical modelling, stability, control theory, numerical
simulation
1. Introduction
In early December 2019, the outbreak of a large family of viruses called coronavirus
(COVID-19) which is suspected to be started from Wuhan city of China [11]. Rapidly the
COVID-19 outbreak has been transformed into one of the most severe hazards to human
health as a result of its rapid transmission rate and lack of an appropriate vaccine or specific
treatment for the disease. As of this writing (2nd June 2020), almost all the countries and
regions around the world have been affected by the virus and has taken lives beyond three
lakhs people of different age group and 53,403 number of cases are still at a critical stage
(worldometers.info). Beyond several natural death-traps and human-created disasters, it
seems like the world is unable to handle this epidemic situation. To come out from this
difficult situation created by the COVID-19 outbreak, almost all infected countries
implementing harsh policies to maintain social distancing, and improving medicinal and
hospitalization facilities.
The first case of COVID-19 in India originated from China, was reported on 30th January
2020, in Kerala state situated on the south-western Malabar Coast [19]. Currently, in Asia,
India has the largest number of COVID-19 confirmed cases, as on 3rd June 2020, a total of
216,824 infected cases, 104,071 recoveries, and 6,088 deaths are reported in the country
(worldometers.info). The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MOHFW) has declared the
outbreak as an epidemic in many Indian states and districts and took harsh actions including
complete lockdown, quarantine the suspected cases, and sympathetic awareness of the spatial
footprint of COVID-19 to predict the possible spread and risk in a region.
A complete lockdown for long-time generates complexity and devastation in the Gross
domestic product (GDP) of the country which is inescapable for any country. Centre for
Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) mentioned that following nationwide lockdown results
in unemployment of 27 million youth of 20-30 years age group, also the employment rate has
fallen from 40% in February to 26% in June 2020 [8]. In this time, various efforts are being
made by the government to design the possibilities of opening the lockdown in a strategic
manner so that the COVID-19 transmission rate also not accelerate. On April 15, MOHFW
had declared that depending on the number of existing and new cases and transmission rate of
COVID-19, districts of India are classifying into three types of zones (red, orange, and
green). Red zones have a pandemic situation with a large number of cases and a high
transmission rate, orange zones have a comparatively controlled situation with few cases and
green zones have not had any cases in the last 21 days. That means an infection-free zone is
considered as a green zone, the zone in which infection is at the initial stage is considered as
an orange zone and highly contaminated zones are considered as red zones. Moreover, the list
of these zones was to be updated based on the incubation period of COVID-19 in the
following manner, the red zone will be earmarked as orange zones if no COVID-19 case is
reported for two weeks, and again, if no case is reported for next two weeks, the orange zone
districts will become green zones [10]. On 15th April 2020, districts are distributed as zone,
170 red zones, 230 orange zones, and 333 green zones; this distribution of districts is updated
on 3rd May 2020 as 130 red zones, 284 orange zones, and 319 green zones [9, 10]. The
authorities have implemented various zone-wise lockdown strategies in which some
relaxation is given in the green zone. The goal of this zone wise lockdown strategy is to
reopen the economy in parts without raising COVID-19 infection cases.
Observing this strategy of the Government of India, we have made a mathematical model to
analyse the transmission rate of COVID-19 at a geographic level. At this time, the collection
of scientific literature on mathematical modelling to study the transmission dynamics of the
ongoing pandemic is available most extensively [1, 4, 7, 12-14]. However, the present GOR-
model suggest a strategic study of zone wise transmission, this idea contrasts with our
previous works [15-18] and other mathematical models available on the COVID-19 outbreak.
In the present model the intensity of the infection in respective zones is considered to develop
effective strategies associated with lockdown and medication. Stage wise lockdown strategies
are used to fulfill medical emergency and stock of food. Lockdown and medical combined
strategies are also used to regulate infected zones.
The manuscript is organized as follows. In Section 2, a compartmental model for the COVID-
19 outbreak is proposed. In Section 3, the basic reproduction number for the GOR-model is
calculated. In Section 4, local and global stability of disease-free and endemic equilibrium
point is proved and examined. In Section 5, the multi-group GOR-model is proposed and the
reproduction number for the model is framed. In Section 6, the optimal control theory is
applied to the GOR-model which includes certain strong control strategies; and the effect of
these control strategies is seen graphically in the next Section 7. The paper is ended with
Section 8 of the conclusions.
2. Mathematical Modeling
As we have discussed in previous section 1, to construct the compartmental model, the
transmission of COVID-19 infection is organized by subdividing countries in finitely many
zones. According to the number of COVID-19 active cases, a transmission rate of the
infection, and the extent of testing and surveillance, the zones are mainly classified into three
categories as green, orange, and red zones. The following graphical scheme fig. 1
representing the flow and fluctuations of the infection among three mutually exclusive
compartments: the compartment of green zone (G ) , the compartment of orange zone (O) and
the compartment of red zone ( R) .

Figure 1 Graphical scheme representing the interactions among different zones

The dynamical system is made up of three non-linear ordinary differential equations,
describing the evolution of the zones through three different compartments over time:
G  B  1GO   2GR  5O  G
O  1GO  5O  3 R   4O  O (1)
R   2GR  3 R   4O   R
Here, B is the growth rate and  is the rate at which zone become normal and release from
this outbreak phase. 1 and  2 are the rates at which green zone is converting into orange
and red zone respectively in 14 days of the COVID-19 outbreak. It is also observed that as a
positive result of lockdown and medication facility, several orange (red) zone are converted
into green (orange) zone.  5 is the rate at which orange zone becoming green and  3 is rate
at which red zone become orange in 15 days.  4 is the rate by which the orange zone is
becoming a red zone in 14 days due to the high transmission rate of the infection. Since the
model contains only the human population, initial conditions, and all the parameters used in
the model are considered to be non-negative.

We know that  G(t ), O(t ), R(t )   0 if  G(0), O(0), R(0)   0 [SmithHL (2008)]. Based on
system (1), we have N  B   .

B
Where N  G  O  R , when t   , we have N  . Hence N is bounded and the feasible

region () for system (1) is as follows,

 B
  (G, O, R)  R3 : G  O  R   (2)
 

2.1. Equilibrium points

The solutions of system (1) are called an equilibrium points of the model. The current model
has two obvious equilibrium points;
B
I. Disease free equilibrium point, E0  (G0 ,0,0) , where G0  , and

II. Endemic equilibrium point, E*  (G* , O* , R* )
3 ( B   r )
where, G*  r , O*   ,
 ( 1r  3   4  5   )
B 2  1r   4   1 r  3      5    3   B 2    2   4  5   
R 
*

 2   1r  3   4  5   

Here, r is a highest root of the polynomial, given by p( z )  a2 z 2  a1 z  a0 and its

coefficients are: a2  13 , a1  1 (3   )  2 (4  5   ) ,
a0  3 (5   )   (4  5   ) .

3. The Basic Reproduction Number

To get threshold value of zone wise transformation of the COVID-19, basic reproduction
number is formulated using the next-generation matrix algorithm [5, 6]. The basic
reproduction number for the system (1) is obtained as the spectral radius of the matrix
( FV 1 ) around the disease-free equilibrium point.
The dynamical system (1) is split into two disjoint matrices f and v . F and V are the formed
Jacobian matrix of matrices f and v respectively, where,

 1GO    5O   3 R   4 O   O 
  
f    2GR  and v    3 R   4O   R 

 0    B  1GO   2GR  5O  G 

The Jacobian matrices of f and v around disease free equilibrium point are:

 1 B 
  0 0  
        3 0 
 2 B   5 4

F  0 0  and V     4 3   0 
  B 
  2 B 2 B
 0 0 0  1  5  
      
 

The formulated basic reproduction number R0  ( FV 1 ) is:

 1 ( 3   )   2 ( 5   )   2  4 
 1 
B  ( 3   )  1 ( 3   )  21 2 (  5   )  21 2  4   2 
 2
  
    2 (2     )(    )   2   
 2  
R0  
4 5 5 2 4
(3)
2  ( 5   )( 3   )   4  

The value of the basic reproduction number ( R0 ) also called the threshold value, depends on
parameters based on various environmental factors that govern pathogen transmission.
Hence, the magnitude of R0 varies by places and communities.

In particular, value of the transmission rates used in the model are based on the zone-wise
distribution of districts in India from 15th April to 3rd May 2020 [9, 10]. The parameters are
set as B  0.2012 ,   0.08 (CIA World Factbook. Retrieved January 31, 2020.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/346.html#XX),
1  0.3123 , 2  0.0123 , 3  0.2533 , 4  0.5654 and 5  0.6758 . The resulting basic
reproduction number is R0  0.9307 . Note that R0  1 , this means that the epidemic outbreak
in India can be controlled in the next upcoming months and it is very much possible that the
disease dies out from the society and most of the infected district of India converted into the
green zone in few months.
4. Stability Analysis
In this section, local and global stability of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points is
deliberated. The local stability conditions that emerged from the following theory suggest
maximizing the transmission rates  3 and  5 . This simply means that to stabilise the model,
we need to improve the rate at which the red (orange) zone area transformed into an orange
(green) zone area.
4.1. Local stability

Theorem 1 The system (1) with disease free equilibrium point E0  (G0 ,0,0) is locally
B
asymptotically stable if and only if 3   4  5  2   1   2  , 5  B2 ,

4  B1  4  , 5   B1 and  3  B2 5 .
Proof The system (2) was being linearized around disease free equilibrium point to obtain the
disease-free Jacobian matrix as follows,

 1 B 2 B 
 

 5 
 
 
 1 B 
J  E0    0   4  5   3  (4)
  
 2 B 
 0 4  3   
  

The characteristic equation of (4) is: P0 ( )        2  a1  a0   (5)

with: a1  
1

          2
3 4 5
2
 B1  B 2 

a0 
1
 2  2
(  4  B1 )   2 ( 5  B 2 )   2 B( B1   4  )  3  (5   B1 )   ( 3  B 2 5 ) 

One eigenvalue obtain from (5) is 10   and other two are 2,3
0

1
2

a1  a12  4a0 . 
Note that, is a0 is negative then one of the eigenvalues, 20 or 30 is positive and others are
negative.

a) If a0  0 and a12  4a0  0 , then the equilibrium point E0 is in the form of nodes and
if a1  0 then E0 is asymptotically stable.
b) If a0  0 , a12  4a0  0 and a1  0 , then the equilibrium point E0 is in the form of
focus and if a1  0 then E0 is asymptotically stable.
c) If a1  0 then E0 is unstable.

B
Hence, the conditions 3   4  5  2       , 5  B2 , 4  B1  4  , 5   B1
 1 2
and  3  B2 5 implies a1  0 and a0  0 and which implies the disease free equilibrium
point E0 is locally asymptotically stable.

Theorem 2 The system (1) with endemic equilibrium point E * is locally asymptotically
e
stable if and only if 5 3   2 r (  4  5   )  e2   1 , r 2 2e2  3 ( B  e2 r ) , 3  4  2 r ,

 r  B 3  4  5  2  r  1  2  ,  r  B , 1r  3  4  5   and
e2  13r  35 .
Proof The system (2) was being linearized around the endemic equilibrium point to obtain
the Jacobian matrix as follows,

 13 ( B  r  ) e1 
    1r  5 2r 
  e 2  e2 
   (B  r ) 
J  E*     1 3 1r   4  5   3  (6)
  e2 
 e1 
 4  2 r  3   
  e2 

where e1   2e2  13  r  3 5   B2 (1r  4  5   ) and e2  1r  3  4  5   .

Here, e1 and e2 are assumed positive with conditions 1r  3  4  5   ,
e2  13r  35 .


The characteristic equation of (5) is: P* ( )        2  b1  b0  (7)
1
with: b1    e  (3  4  5  2  r 1  r 2 )  13 ( r  B)  e1 
 e2 2

 13 (  r  B)( 3   4   2 r )  1  r 2  2 e2  3 ( B  e2 r )  

1  
b0    e  
 e2  e2   5 3   2 r (  4  5   )  e2   1  
   

One eigenvalue obtain from (7) is 1*   and other two are 2,3
*

1
2
b1  b12  4b0 . 
Note that, b1  0 iff 3  4  5  2  r  1  2  ,  r  B and e1  0 . And b0  0 iff
e1
5 3   2 r ( 4  5   )  e2   , r 2 2e2  3 ( B  e2 r ) , 3  4  2 r and  r  B . Using

the same arguments used in the previous theorem 1, we can say that, the endemic equilibrium
point E * is locally asymptotically stable when b1  0 and b0  0 .

4.2. Global stability

B 2
The global stability of E0 has been proved under the condition 3  . It is noted that

B
G . Suppose the Lyapunov function as: L  G  O .


  B
L  B  G  R(3  2G)  O(4   )  R  3  2   O(  4   ) .
  
 B 2 B
We have L  0 for 3  , however, L  0 only if G  and O  R  0 . Hence, by
 
Laselle’s Invariance Principle, all the roots to the equations of the system (1) having initial
conditions in the feasible region (2) approaches E0 as t approaches to infinity. Hence, we
have the result given below:

Theorem 3 The disease free equilibrium point E0 is globally asymptotically stable,

B 2
provided 3  .


Now, we prove the global stability of the endemic equilibrium point ( E * ) by applying the
following theorem [2, 3] by proving that inside the invariant region, the GOR-model has no
homoclinic loops, oriented phase polygons, and periodic solutions.

Theorem 4 Consider, g (G, O, R )  g1 (G, O, R), g2 (G, O, R), g3 (G, O, R) a piece-wise

smooth vector field on * that satisfy the conditions (curl g ). n  0 and g. f  0 inside * ,

where f  ( f1 , f 2 , f3 ) is a Lipchitz continuous field inside * , n is the normal vector to *

 g g   g g   g g 
and (curl g )   3  2  iˆ   3  1  ˆj   2  1  kˆ . Then, the system of differential
 O R   G R   G O 
equations G  f1 , O  f 2 , R  f3 has no periodic solutions, homoclinic loops and oriented

phase polygons inside * .

Proof Let *  (G, O, R) : G  O  R  1, G  0, O  0, R  0 . Clearly * is subset of  and it

is positively invariant. Using G  O  R  1 we rewrite the system in equivalent form.

f1 (G, O)  B  1GO   2G (1  G  O )  5O  G
f1 (G, R)  B  1G (1  G  R )   2GR  5 (1  G  R )  G
f 2 (G, O)  1GO  5O  3 (1  G  O)   4O  O
(8)
f 2 ( R, O)  1 (1  R  O)O  5O  3 R   4O  O
f3 (G, R)   2GR  3 R   4 (1  G  R )   R
f3 (O, R)   2 (1  O  R) R  3 R   4O   R

Let, g  ( g1 , g2 , g3 ) be a vector field, such that

f3 (G, R) f 2 (G, O)   1  1  
g1     1   2  3 1    4   1  5
GR GO O  G R G  G
f (G, O) f3 (O, R) B    
g2  1    1  2 2  2  R  G  2   3  4  5
GO OR GO O O R G
f ( R, O) f1 (G, R) B      1
g3  2    21  1  2  O  G    2  3  4  5 1  
RO GR GR R O R G  R

Note that, g. f  0 and using normal vector n  (1,1,1) , we get

 BOR  O  R   O 2  G 4  R5   GR 2 3
(curl g ). n    0 . Hence, there are no solutions with
R 2O 2G 2
homoclinic loops, periodicity and oriented phase polygons inside * , hence E * exist inside
* and it is globally asymptotically stable.
5. Multi-Group Model
Since the parametric values depend upon several social and environmental factors related to
different geographical locations, the transmission rate of COVID-19 is different in every
country. To analyse global transmission dynamics more accurately, we divide the globe into
n -groups. Here each group is correlated to the other groups by parameter  kj , it shows the
transmission of infection from j th group to k th group. Each i th  group , i  1, 2,..., n contains
three compartments; Gi , the compartment of green zone, Oi , the compartment of orange
zone and Ri , the compartment of red zone. Meanwhile, due to heavy lockdown in most of the
red zone around the world, the transmission of infection between two groups through red
zone is not easily possible, hence it is not considered in this multi-group model. The
transmission dynamics for the multi-group model is shown in the following fig. 2.

Figure 2 Transmission diagram of Multi-group dynamical model

The formulation of the multi-group model is as below:
n
Gk  Bk    kj Gk O j   2k Gk Rk  5k Ok  k Gk
j 1
n
Ok    kj Gk O j  5k Ok  3k Rk   4k Ok  k Ok (9)
j 1

Rk   2k Gk Rk  3k Rk   4k Ok  k Rk
 kj is the rate at which orange zone of j th  group transmit the infection to the green zone of
k th  group . Other parameters are considered same as model (1) for respective group.

For each k , adding the three equations in system (9) gives

Bk
 Gk  Ok  Rk   Bk  k (Gk  Ok  Rk ) ; hence, limsup  Gk (t ), Ok (t ), Rk (t )   . Therefore
t  k
Gk (t ) , Ok (t ) and Rk (t ) are uniformly bounded in R3n .

Hence, the feasible region for the system (9) is as follow:

 B 
 m   G1 , O1 , R1 ,..., Gn , On , Rn   R3n / Gk  Ok  Rk  k ,1  k  n  (10)
 k 

The system (9) always have the disease free equilibrium point, E0m   G10 , 0, 0,..., G20 , 0, 0  on
Bk
the boundary of the feasible region (10) with Gk0  .
k

An equilibrium point Em*   Gm* , Om* , Rm*  is called the endemic equilibrium point, which
satisfy the following equilibrium equations
n
Bk  5k Ok*    kj Gk*O*j   2k Gk* Rk*  k Gk* (11)
j 1

Gk*Ok*  3k Rk*   5k   4k  k  Ok*

n


j 1
kj (12)

Rk*  2k Gk*  3k  k    4k Ok* (13)

n
 3k  4k 
and  kjGk*O*j  Ok*  5k  4k  k  3   2 Gk  k 
k k *
, which follows from (13) and (12).
j 1 
Let,

R0m    M 0  (14)

where, R0m is the basic reproduction number for the multi-group system (9), given by spectral
radius of the matrix M 0 .

  kj Gk0  3k   2k Gk0  k  

Here, M 0  M  G , G ,..., G    k
0 0 0

  5   4  k  3   2 Gk  k   3  4 1k n
1 2 n k k k 0 k k

Using this formula, one can easily find the threshold value for n number of countries and
analyse the effectiveness of the rate  kj , i.e. the rate at which one country transmits the virus
to other countries.
6. Optimal Control
In this section, we extend the system (1) by including time dependent control strategies, u1 (t ) ,
u2 (t ) , u3 (t ) , u4 (t ) and u5 (t ) related to restriction in movement in a zone and essential
medication facilities to fight against the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. The role and place of
each control variable are demonstrated in table 1 and fig. 3 respectively.
Control
Variables
u1 (t ) This control variable suggests first stage lockdown, in which people are
allowed to move only for a medical emergency and stock of food.
u2 (t ) This control variable applied when the transmission rate becomes extremely
intense. In such a case, there is a possibility that the green zone turns out in
red very quickly. In this situation, this control variable suggests complete
lockdown, in which, almost all activities, excepting essential services related
to medical emergencies, will be stopped in such immerging infective zones.
u3 (t ) This control strategy needs to control transmission between the primarily
infected zone (orange zone) to the critically infected zone (red zone). Hence
to control the situation we need to restrict movements in the zone, as well as
we need to improve hospitalization facilities to cure infected individuals in
the orange zone.
u4 (t ) This control variable has remarkable importance; it suggests the improved
medication strategy to support the rate at which red zone converting to an
orange zone.
u5 (t ) This control strategy helps the orange zone to become green zone by curing
infected cases in the orange zone. Which needs better medication to improve
the immunity of infected individuals.

Figure 3 COVID-19 model with control variables

According to the above assumptions, the COVID-19 model (1) is modified as follow:
G  B  1GO   2GR  5O  G  u1G  u2G  u5O
O  1GO  5O  3 R   4O  O  u1G  u5O  u3O  u4 R (15)
R   2GR  3 R   4O   R  u2G  u3O  u4 R

According to this extended model, the optimal control situation with the objective function is
formulated by
T
Optimise J (u1 , u2 , u3 , u4 , u5 )    A1G (t )  A2O(t )  A3 R(t )  w1u12  w2u22  w3u32  w4u42  w5u52 dt
0
(16)

In above objective function (16), Ai , i  1, 2,3 , are weight constants of the respective
compartments and w j , j  1, 2,...,5 are weight constant of respective control variables. The
objective is to minimize the spread of COVID-19 through zones by determining optimal
control functions (u1* , u2* , u3* , u4* , u5* ) , subject to the system (15), such that

J  u1* , u2* , u3* , u4* , u5*   optimise  J (u1 , u2 , u3 , u4 , u5 ) / (u1 , u2 , u3 , u4 , u5 )   (17)

where, the control strategy set is:

  (u1 , u2 , u3 , u4 , u5 ) / ui (t ) is Lebesgue measurable on[0, T ],0  u i (t )  1, i  1, 2,...,5

1 (t )  A2O(t )  A3 R(t )  w1u1  w2u2  w3u3  w4u4  w5u5 of the objective

2 2 2 2 2
The integrand, AG
function (16) is convex in the set  . The control strategy set  is also close and convex by
definition. Since the model (15) is bounded and linear in the control variables, the conditions
for the existence of optimal control are satisfied [Fleming and Rishel, (1975)]. Hence, here
exist (u1* , u2* , u3* , u4* , u5* )  such that (17) exist.

Let we convert this optimality problem into a problem of maximizing a Langrangian function
L , with respect to all control variables. We use Pontryagins maximum principle for
necessary condition of an optimal control problem (Pontryagin 1987).

L  A1G 2 (t )  A2O 2 (t )  A3 R 2 (t )  w1u12  w2u22  w3u32  w4u42  w5u52

 1  B  1GO   2GR  5O  G  u1G  u2G  u5O 
 2  1GO  5O  3 R   4O   O  u1G  u5O  u3O  u4 R 
 3   2GR  3 R   4O   R  u2G  u3O  u4 R 

For given optimal control u*  (u1* , u2* , u3* , u4* , u5* ) and corresponding state solutions of the
corresponding system (5), there exist adjoint functions, i , i  1, 2,3 , as follow:

L
1   2 A1G   1  2  1O  u1    1  3   2 R  u2   1
G
L
2   2 A2O   1  2  1G  5  u5    2  3   4  u3   2 
O
L
3   2 A3 R   1  3   2G   3  2  3  u4   3 
R
L
Using terminal condition i (T )  0 , for i  1, 2,3 and optimality condition,   0 , for
ui
i  1, 2,...,5 , the optimal control variables u1* , u2* , u3* , u4* and u5* is solved.

u1 
 2  1  G  3  1  G  3  2  O  3  2  R  2  1  O
, u2  , u3  , u4  and u5 
2w1 2w2 2w3 2w4 2w5
(18)

Moreover, optimal control strategies u1* , u2* , u3* , u4* and u5* are given by:
 
       G 

u1*  max 0, min 1, 2 1  (19)

  2w1 



       G 

u2*  max 0, min 1, 3 1  (20)

  2w2 



     2  O 

u3*  max 0, min 1, 3  (21)

  2w3 



     2  R 

u4*  max 0, min 1, 3  (22)

  2w4 



       O 

u5*  max 0, min 1, 2 1  (23)

  2w5 


7. Numerical simulation
This section attempts to describe the graphical representation of variations in the model,
which helps to visualize flow of the COVID-19 outbreak and the influence of optimal control
strategies on it.

Figure 4 Variation in compartment with time

Fig. 4 shows movement of zones from one stage to other stage. The initialisation of the
compartment of green, orange, and red zone is given by G(0)  0.66 , O(0)  2.84 , and
R(0)  1.70 respectively. It can be seen that compartments of both the infected zones, red and
green zone, are decreases with time and become a very low in number after twenty weeks of
the outbreak. Moreover, a gradual improvement is observed in the compartment of green
zone.
 Figure 5 Scatter diagram of COVID-19 model
Fig. 5 shows the transmission between all three compartments with time. It shows the high
intensity of transmission of COVID-19 during the initial period of the outbreak.

Figure 6 Bifurcation diagram for the COVID-19 model

Fig. 6 shows a bifurcation diagram which helps to validate the qualitative information about
the basic reproduction number. Here, the blue vertical line indicates value of the basic
reproduction number, R0  0.93 and the red vertical line indicates value of the critical point
RC , which is 1.52. This higher value of critical point indicates that this is the point from
which the system’s stability switches from unstable to stable state. To effectively control the
spread of COVID-19, the critical point, RC should be brought below 1.
 (a) (b)

(c)
Figure 7 Change in each compartment with and without control strategies
Fig. 7 shows the variation in each compartment under influence of with and without control
strategies. It is observed that the COVID-19 outbreak can be controlled up to a significant
level in twenty weeks after applying all the control strategies together. Notable progress in
the compartment of green zone and degradation in the compartment of orange and red zone is
observed after twenty weeks after applying optimal control theory to the GOR-model.

Figure 8 Change in control variables with time

Deviation in the intensity of control variables with time is shown in fig. 8. Furthermore, the
figure also suggests the time and amount of intensity of the mixed control strategies should
be applied to control the COVID-19 outbreak in around 50 days. It can be observed that the
requirement of the first two control strategies u1 (t ) and u2 (t ) , consist of lockdown strategies
are present throughout the outbreak. The requirement of the fourth control strategy which
helps the red zone turned out to the green zone by improving recovery rate, is very essential
in between the outbreak.
8. Conclusion
To control the increasing number of infected cases of COVID-19 in around the world, we
need to control the geographic transmission of the virus. It is easy to reduce impact of the
virus in one zone compared to the whole group of the zone, hence once the geographic
transmission or multi-zonal transmission controlled, the transmission of COVID-19 can be
controlled in a short time duration. Hence, to explore and analyse the geographic
transmission of the virus, the GOR-model is constructed. The basic reproduction number (3)
is formulated which shows the transmission rate of infected zone through the compartment of
green zone which is 0.9307. This transmission rate of the infected zone is in one group. In the
present work, GOR-model is expanded to study multi-group transmission dynamics. The
basic reproduction number (14) for the multi-group model is expressed. Local and global
stability of the GOR-model is proved and stability conditions also demand to reduce the
number of infected zones. The study of parametric inequality used in the conditions
formulated in the process of stabilising the GOR-model helps to develop certain strategies to
stabilise the current epidemic situation. Using optimal control theory, several effective
control strategies are applied to the model and their effect on disease spread is also visualized
in the simulation section.
The model is applied to the released data based on zone wise transmission of COVID-19
through all 276 districts of India from 1st May to 15th May 2020. The model suggests that
strategic partially lockdown according to intensity of infection should be kept throughout this
pandemic outbreak of COVID-19. The multi-group model can also be useful to predict the
variation in threshold value with deviation in the rate at which the virus transmits from one
group to another. Undeniably, this investigation has one limitation, due to the limited data
accessible for zone-wise distribution of other countries than India, the global geographic
transmission using the constructed multi-group model cannot calculate easily. In the future,
one can develop further this model.
Acknowledgement
All the authors are thankful to DST-FIST file # MSI-097 for technical support to the
Department of Mathematics, Gujarat University. Second author (AHS) is funded by a Junior
Research Fellowship from the Council of Scientific & Industrial Research (file no.-
09/070(0061)/2019-EMR-I). Third author (ENJ) is funded by UGC granted National
Fellowship for Other Backward Classes (NFO-2018-19-OBC-GUJ-71790).
Conflict of Interest
None
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