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Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

The Madden-Julian Oscillation

Climate
Outlooks & drivers
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(MJO) is the major fluctuation in
tropical weather on weekly to
monthly timescales. The MJO can
be characterised as an eastward
moving 'pulse' of cloud and rainfall
near the equator that typically
recurs every 30 to 60 days.
Read more: About the MJO

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MJO summary (PDF 4MB)
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MJO phase Average conditions Average OLR Cloudiness Regional cloudiness Time longitude Weekly note

Tropical monitoring Issued 2 February 2021

Northern rainfall onset Tropical cyclone activity from Australia to the South Pacific

Tropical cyclone outlook

Tropical low and cyclone activity extends from Western Australia, eastwards to near Fiji in the South Pacific Ocean.

In the Australian region, a tropical low which has slowly moved over parts of northern Western Australia (WA) is expected to move
Climate model summary
offshore and develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours. Despite being located over land, this system deepened
significantly during the past week. There has been severe weather associated with this system and widespread heavy rain has
News & reports
affected parts of the Kimberley and Pilbara districts of WA over the past week.

Weather station data There is also model guidance that a tropical low may develop in the Gulf of Carpentaria later this week. Regardless of whether such a
system reaches tropical cyclone strength, it would still have the potential to produce significant rainfall across the Gulf region.
Data services
Further east, a tropical cyclone developed over the Coral Sea, well off the Queensland east coast. Tropical cyclone Lucas tracked
Maps – history to now southeast leaving the Australian Region, and entered Fiji's area of responsibility. The track map of Lucas indicates it is likely to
continue its south-eastward track and pass to the west of Fiji, before potentially passing near Noumea or New Caledonia in the next
Maps – averages day or 2.

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About Australian climate
Another tropical cyclone, Ana, currently lies east of the Fijian islands and is expected to move south-eastwards, away from the island
group.
Read more about Australian cyclone warnings and information
Read more about Fiji cyclone warnings and information

Madden–Julian Oscillation stalls over South West Pacific region

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently at moderate to strong magnitude over the western South Pacific region. Climate
models are in good agreement that the MJO pulse will move slowly eastwards into the central Pacific in the next week or 2 and
remain at a similar strength. While an MJO pulse over the western Pacific is typically associated with above-average cloudiness and
rainfall over northern Australia at this time of the year, its influence lessens significantly once over the central South Pacific region.
With the MJO further east, enhanced tropical weather is typically focussed around the South Pacific islands. As a result, conditions
in this region are likely to remain favourable for tropical low and cyclone development for much of the next fortnight.

Read more about the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Monsoon conditions may continue across Australia during the next fortnight
With the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) now east of Australian longitudes, environmental conditions conducive to an active
monsoon across northern Australia would typically be expected to weaken. A likely scenario is that the monsoon trough would break
down over the Western Australia region as the tropical low/cyclone currently in that area weakens and dissipates. However, the
monsoon trough is likely to persist across parts of the Northern Territory's Top End and across the Gulf of Carpentaria, extending into
the Coral Sea for the next week. Long-range weather models indicate that a tropical low is expected to form within this trough over the
Gulf of Carpentaria in the coming days. The presence of this low may re-invigorate the monsoon flow, even as the MJO pulse moves
to a location not typically favourable for enhanced tropical weather for northern Australia.

Depending on the movement of the tropical low, this could lead to monsoon conditions extending across much of the breadth of
northern Australia, increasing the likelihood of further widespread rainfall during the next fortnight.

Product code: IDCKGEW000

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: Interpolated OLR data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA.

Product Code: IDCKGEWWOO

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