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How A Massive Contagious Infectious Diseases Can Affect Tourism,

International Trade, Air Transportation, and Electricity Consumption? The
Case of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV...

Preprint · February 2020

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.15576.65281/1

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How A Massive Contagious Infectious Diseases Can Affect Tourism,
International Trade, Air Transportation, and Electricity Consumption?
The Case of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China
Keywords:
Economic Simulation, contagious diseases, China, Tourism, Electricity Consumption
JEL Code:
I15, I18

Corresponding First Author

Mario Arturo RUIZ ESTRADA,
Faculty of Economics and Administration (FEA)
University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, MALAYSIA
[E-mail] marioruiz@um.edu.my

Second Author
Donghyun PARK,
Principal Economist,
Asian Development Bank (ADB),
6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, Metro Manila, Philippines 1550.
[E-mail]: dpark@adb.org

Third Author
Minsoo LEE
Head, Knowledge Hub at PRCM,
Asian Development Bank (ADB),
Chaoyang District, Beijing, China
[E-mail]: mlee@adb.org

Abstract
This paper is interested to evaluate the final impact of the 2019 novel coronavirus
(2019-nCoV) on four economic strategic sectors such as the tourism, air transportation,
international trade, and electricity consumption of China into a multidimensional graph
simultaneously. Hence, this research paper proposes the application of the economic crisis from
a massive contagious infection diseases simulator (ECMCID-Simulator) respectively. In
addition, the ECMCID-Simulator tries to show a macro-dynamic analysis with different
possible scenarios to evaluate how a massive contagious infection disease can affect
dramatically on the economic performance of any country in the short run. Finally, the
ECMCID-Simulator was applied to the case of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China.

1
 1. Introduction
A newly identified type, called 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), has caused a
recent outbreak of respiratory illness that started in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei province
in the PRC. In just one month, the outbreak of novel coronavirus spread from storm center
Wuhan to the whole PRC. On 28 January 2020, the number of confirmed cases of the novel
coronavirus (2019-nCov) reached 5,974, exceeding SARS; on 31 January, the number of
confirmed cases of the 2019-nCov reached 11,791, double the number of SARS infections;
three days later, the number of confirmed cases of 2019-nCov broke 20,000; as of end of 10
February, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of 2019-nCov nationwide has reached
42,638. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the 2019-nCov outbreak a public
health emergency on 30 January. Despite officials and academia are still tracing the exact
source of this new coronavirus, current evidence suggest it is linked to the Huanan Seafood
Market in Wuhan city. Some people who visited the market developed viral pneumonia caused
by 2019-nCov, starting from December 2019.

Hubei province started to report the 2019-nCov on the last day of 2019, when 27
people were confirmed having the disease in Wuhan (Figure 15). For various reasons, the 2019-
nCov did not gain much public attention in the first place therefore failed being contained. The
Spring Festival travels accelerated the spreading of the 2019-nCov to other parts of the country
and the world. During peak times, the daily new increased cases outnumbered 3,000 in Hubei
province and 800 in other provinces. At the end of 10 February, 31,728 cases were confirmed
in Hubei and 10,910 cases confirmed in other provinces. The death rate diverse between Hubei
and other provinces: by the end of 10 February, in Hubei it is around 3.1%; in other provinces
it is approximately 0.38%. The good news is the daily new cases outside Hubei province has
been steadily decreasing. Judging from the number of newly confirmed cases, areas outside
Hubei have continued to decline for 6 days starting from 4 February; while Hubei ’s newly
diagnosed cases recovered on 7 February despite the downward trend to the level 2 days ago.

In terms of the number of close contacts and the daily increase in the number of medical
observations, both Hubei and other provinces have shown the same two trends. After falling
for 2 consecutive days, Hubei data rebounded after 6 February. In areas outside Hubei
Province, the number of new daily close contacts has stabilized at about 20,000 for several
consecutive days, while the number of new daily medical observations has continued to decline
after 1 February and has even appeared negative growth in the past four days.

However, by the end of 10 February, with the exception of Hubei Province, the most
severely affected provinces were Guangdong Province (1,177 cases), Zhejiang Province (1,117
cases), and Henan Province (1,105 cases). In terms of the number of newly diagnosed cases
per day, the speed of epidemic transmission in Zhejiang has recently slowed down.
Specifically, the number of newly confirmed cases in Zhejiang Province surged to 123 on 28
January, and another increase on 29 January with 132 people. The number of daily infections
gradually dropped from a high level, and the number of newly confirmed cases fell to 25 on 9
February. The new confirmed cases in Guangdong Province has also dropped from the high of
114 new people on 2 February. In addition, the number of diagnosed cases in Hunan, Anhui,
and Jiangxi provinces is also increasing, and the epidemic situation is spreading. Although the

2
number of newly diagnosed cases in Henan has declined in the past three days, the growth rate
is still fast; Shandong, Sichuan, Beijing, Shanghai, Fujian and other regions have maintained a
steady increase in the number of daily confirmed cases in the past two weeks.

Figure 1: Confirmed Cases of 2019-nCov

50,000 Nationwide Hubei Province Other Provinces
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1/10/20
1/12/20
1/14/20
1/16/20
1/18/20
1/20/20
1/22/20
1/24/20
1/26/20
1/28/20
1/30/20
2/1/20
1/2/20
1/4/20
1/6/20
1/8/20

2/3/20
2/5/20
2/7/20
2/9/20
12/31/19

Source: National Health Commission

The spontaneous appearance of coronavirus at China is opening to academics a new

opportunity to evaluates the economic impact of any massive infection diseases on certain
strategic production sectors such as tourism, air and shipping transportation, international trade,
and electricity consumption. Firstly, we are interested to evaluate the tourism sector from 2010
to 2018, tourism in the PRC has been expanding with total revenue growing 19.5% on average
per year, up from $231.6 in 2010 to $902 billion in 2018. During the same period, the number
of tourists increased by 12.2% on average per year, reaching 5.7 billion in 2018. According to
the National Bureau of Statistics, tourism and related industries accounted for 4.48 percent of
GDP in 2018 (see Figure 2 and 3).

Fig. 2: Tourism Revenue and Growth Fig. 3: Tourists and Growth

PRC: Tourism Revenue PRC: Tourist

Billion USD Domestic
Domestic Million persons
Inbound International Inbound International
1200 60% 6000 30%
Total Total
Growth Rate (rhs) 50% Growth Rate (rhs) 25%
900 4500
40% 20%

600 30% 3000 15%

20% 10%
300
1500
10%
5%
0 0%
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 0 0%
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Source: Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Source: Ministry of Culture and Tourism.

3
 In the case of the domestic tourism has been the main pillar of the tourism industry. In
2018, it accounted for 85.9% of total revenue and 97.5% of total tourists. The revenue of
domestic tourism and the number of tourists outgrew the inbound international tourism, with
average growth rates of 20.2% and 12.7% respectively during 2010-2018. On 24 January 2020,
the PRC officially suspended domestic and overseas group tours, and suspended sales of certain
travel products such as flight tickets and hotel bundle packages due to the unexpected novel
coronavirus outbreak. This policy will not only affect domestic tourism which generated
$774.9 billion revenue in 2018, but also impact outbound tourism which included 140 million
Chinese outbound tourists in 2019. The outbound tourism expenditure was $115.3 billion in
2017 (see Figure 4 and 5).

Fig. 4: Share of Inbound International Tourism Fig. 5: Outbound Tourist

and Domestic Tourism in 2018 PRC: Outbound Tourist
Million
160 150
Domestic Inbound International 140
140 131
117 122
100%
2.5% 120 107
95% 100
14.1%
80
90%
60
97.5%
85%
40

80% 85.9% 20
0
75% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Tourism Revenue Tourists

Source: Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Source: Ministry of Culture and Tourism.

However, in the inbound International tourism also witnessed a fast growth. During
2010-2018, inbound international tourism revenue grew by 19.5% on average per year, and
reached $127.1 billion in 2018. During the same period, the PRC received 134.7 million visitor
arrivals on average, among them about 80% were from Hong Kong SAR (China), Macau SAR
(China) and Taiwan. On 30 January 2020, WHO declared the novel coronavirus outbreak a
global health emergency. This led to several airlines cancelling their flights to China and will
mean a significant decline of international tourists to the PRC (see Figure 6 and 7).

4
 Fig. 6: Inbound International Tourism Revenue Fig. 7: Visitor Arrival

PRC: Inbound International Tourism Hong Kong SAR (China), Macau SAR (China) and Taiwan
Foreigner
Billion Tourism revenue Growth rate (rhs) Visitor Arrival
USD Million Person
140 120%
120 100% 160
100 140
80%
120
80
60% 100
60 80
40%
40 60
20 20% 40
0 0% 20
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Source: Ministry of Culture and Tourism.

Additionally, we are interested to include in our research the air transportation and
shipping transportation performance to evaluate the people and commodities mobility and
dynamicity. According to our study, the two sectors grew geometrically with 75% and 87% in
the last eight years (see Figure 8 and 9).

Fig. 8: Air Transportation Revenue (Domestic plus Fig. 9: Shipping Services

international)

Shipping Services

Air Transportation
%
90
%
70 80

60 70

50 60

40 50

30 40

20 30

10 20

0 10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Ministry of Transportation. Source: Ministry of Transportation.

5
 In the case of international trade, we can observe that in the past ten years, merchandise
exports and imports (in US dollar-terms) in the PRC grew by 8.1% and 8.5% on average per
year, resulting in an average of $350.5 billion trade surplus per year 1. However, the trade
conflict between the US and the PRC had an adverse impact on PRC’s trade in 2019, as its
exports only grew by 0.5% and imports declined by 2.7%. As a result, the merchandise trade
surplus increased from $350.9 billion in 2018 to $421.9 billion in 2019. Because the novel
coronavirus outbreak has reduced working days and delayed transport and production, the Q1
trade data will be weaker than usual (see Figure 10 and 11).

Chart 10: Merchandise Trade Chart 11: Merchandise Trade Growth

PRC: Merchandise Trade ( Billion USD) PRC: Trade Growth

60%
Export Import Trade Balance (rhs) Export Import

3000 800 40%

2000
600
1000 20%

0 400
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
-1000 0%
200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-2000

-3000 0 -20%

Source: General Administration of Customs. Source: General Administration of Customs.

During 2010-2018, services trade in the PRC has been expanding fast with services
imports increasing 14.7% on average and services exports growing 7.5% on average 2. The
service balance deficit increasing to $258.2 billion in 2018, up from $15.1 billion in 2010.
Services trade is expected to be impacted more by the coronavirus outbreak than goods as cross
border travel and tourism accounted for 52.7% of services imports and 14.8% of services
exports in 2018 (see Figure 12 and 13).

1
Merchandise trade data is from General Administration of Customs
2
Services trade data is from Ministry of Commerce

6
 Chart 12: Services Trade Chart 13: Composition of Services Trade

PRC: Services Trade (Billion USD) Composition of Service Imports: Travel Services
% Composition of Service Exports: Travel Services
Services Export Services Import
Services Trade Balance 70

400 60
50
200
40
0 30
20
-200
10
-400 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-600

Source: Ministry of Commerce. Source: Ministry of Commerce.

Moreover, we can observe that in the electricity demand of the PRC in the past ten
years, the average electricity consumption was 5735.0 kWh bn per year and the consumption
grew by 7.0% on average. Manufacturing accounted for more than half of the electricity
consumption. (see Figure 14 and 15).

Chart 14: Electricity Consumption Chart 15: Manufacturing Electricity Consumption

PRC: Eclectricity Demand Share of Electricity Consumption:

Manufacturing
kWh Electricity Consumption Growth rate (rhs)

8,000 14% 59.0%

7,000 12% 57.0%

6,000 10% 55.0%

5,000 8% 53.0%

4,000 6% 51.0%

3,000 4% 49.0%

2,000 2% 47.0%

1,000 0% 45.0%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: China Electricity Council. Source: China Electricity Council.

7
 2. An Introduction to the Economic Crisis from Massive Contagious Infection Diseases
Simulator (ECMCID-Simulator)

In the construction of the economic crisis from a massive contagious infection diseases
simulator (ECMCID-Simulator) is based on the application of economic waves from the
2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) damage. To build each economic wave from a massive
contagious infection diseases damage in our simulator, we suggest the application of multi-
dimensional economic modeling and economic modeling in real time (Ruiz Estrada, 2017)
simultaneously. Initially, the ECMCID-Simulator is using four strategic economic sectors
“∆Si” where i = {1,2,3,4} in its analysis. Each strategic economic sector has its general axis,
at the same time, each general axis exists a large number of sub-axis. All the sub-axis is
interconnected by strait lines until the end of each general axis. We like to remain that each
sub-axis is running with different first partial differentiations (☼∂Yij/∂Xij) in real time (☼).
The idea to apply partial differentiation in real time is to generate an effect of movement in
real time into our simulator in the same graphical space.

According to the ECMCID-Simulator each sub-axis is interconnected into the same

general axis by the application of the inter-liking sub-axis system “╬”. It is to make available
to join each sub-axis into the same general axis. Finally, we join all general axis and sub-
axis in the same level of analysis under four vectors, each vector is using three first partial
differentiations result simultaneously in the same period of time (see Expression 1). We
assume that all sub-axis and general axis are moving under the application of economic
modeling in real time “☼”. We suggest also the application of the Omnia Mobilis assumption
(Ruiz Estrada, 2011 & Ruiz Estrada and Park, 2018) to help in the relaxation of this
simulation into each sub-axis and the general axis in our modeling. At the same time, it is to
reduce the uses of Ceteris Paribus. In the end, we can observe a large surface in permanent
movement according to our simulator. The movement of this surface starts from the epicenter
of its multi-dimensional coordinate system until it is going to end in the last sub-axis into the
same general axis. The real impact of this simulation is located on the last sub-axis (see
Figure 16). The final analysis in the results can be general axis by general axis or by the
construction of the general surface.

∆S1 = (☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]11 ╬ ☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]12 ╬ ☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]13)

∆S2 = (☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]21 ╬ ☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]22 ╬ ☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]23)

∆S3 = (☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]21 ╬ ☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]22 ╬ ☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]23)

∆S4 = (☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]4 1 ╬ ☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]42 ╬ ☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]43) (1)

8
In fact, each final output contribution from each economic strategic sector in the GDP
formation growth rate of any country (∆O) is observed in Expression 2.

∆O1 = ∫(☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]11 ╬ ☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]12 ╬ ☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]13)dij/Otij

∆O2 = ∫(☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]21 ╬ ☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]22 ╬ ☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]23)dij/Otij

∆O3 = ∫(☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]21 ╬ ☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]22 ╬ ☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]23)dij/Otij

∆O4 = ∫(☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]4 1 ╬ ☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]42 ╬ ☼[∂Yij /∂Xij]43)dij/Otij (2)

Partial differentiation level: i= {o,1,2,3…∞} and Level: j= {o,1,2,3…∞}

Fig. 16: The ECMCID-Simulator Coordinate System

3. The Application of the ECMCID-Simulator in the Evaluation of 2019 novel

coronavirus (2019-nCoV) and its Impact on the Chinese Economy
The application of the ECMCID-Simulator is going to be applied to four different
economic strategic sectors such as the tourism growth rate (∆S1), the international trade
growth rate (∆S2), air transportation growth rate (∆S3), and electricity consumption growth
rate (∆S4) simultaneously. These four economic strategic sectors are followed by the 2019
novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases growth rate (∆C*) such as the epicenter of the
simulation. The four general axes are represented by (∆S1), (∆S2), (∆S3), and (∆S4) (see
Expression 3). Each general axis or economic strategic sectors in our case is divided by five
sub-axis follow by the demand growth rate (∆D), the unemployment growth rate (∆UE), the
stock market performance growth rate (∆SM), the foreign direct investment growth rate
(∆FDI), and finally the final output contribution of each economic strategic sector in
the GDP formation growth rate of China (∆O). In fact, the calculation of (∆O) is based
on Expression 4.

9
 Actually, we applied first partial differentiations that can help to observe the final
impact of any infection diseases contagious crisis in each economic strategic sector or in the
full economy of China. We apply first partial differentiation in real time between ∆C* and
∆D, ∆C* and ∆UE, ∆C* and ∆SM, ∆C* and ∆FDI. In the calculation of ∆O for each economic
strategic sector, we applied four indefinite integrals according to expression 4. All partial
differentiations results are included in a single vector for each economic strategic sector. It
is to generate many possible scenarios and levels of impact in case of a massive contagious
infection diseases crisis for each economic strategic sector in analysis simultaneously. For
the calculation of (∆O), we suggest to apply four indefinite integrals calculations using each
vector from each economic strategic sector (dx) and the common final potential GDP of
China (∆Op) (dy). Therefore, we can join three first partial differentiations and the final
indefinite integral in each sub-axis and general axis until we can build a single surface. If we
observe on a large screen is possible to observe a large surface that is moving such as waves
in the same space and time from the epicenter until the end of each general axis, in our case
each economic strategic sector. The final objective to build this ECMCID-Simulator is based
on show different scenarios and the impact of any massive contagious infection diseases
crisis according to the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases growth rate (∆C*). Now
it is possible to visualize the destructive effect of any massive contagious infection diseases
crisis from a global perspective. Hence, it can permit to present different pictures and effects
of a global massive contagious infection diseases crisis on the Chinese and global economy
into the same graphical space.

∆S1 = (☼[∂∆C*/∂∆D1] ╬ ☼[∂∆C*/∂∆UE1] ╬ ☼[∂∆C*/∂∆SM1] ╬ ☼[∂∆C*/∂∆FDI1])

∆S2 = (☼[∂∆C*/∂∆D2] ╬ ☼[∂∆C*/∂∆UE2] ╬ ☼[∂∆C*/∂∆SM2] ╬ ☼[∂∆C*/∂∆FDI2])
∆S3 = (☼[∂∆C*/∂∆D3] ╬ ☼[∂∆C*/∂∆UE3] ╬ ☼[∂∆C*/∂∆SM3] ╬ ☼[∂∆C*/∂∆FDI3])
∆S4 = (☼[∂∆C*/∂∆D4] ╬ ☼[∂∆C*/∂∆UE4] ╬ ☼[∂∆C*/∂∆SM4] ╬ ☼[∂∆C*/∂∆FDI4]) (3)
However, we can proceed to calculate the final output contribution of this
economic strategic sector in the GDP formation growth rate of China (∆O) (see
Expression 4)

∆O1 = ∫∆S1dij/Otij

∆O2 = ∫∆S2dij/Otij

∆O3 = ∫∆S3dij/Otij

∆O4 = ∫∆S4dij/Otij (4)

In this section, we describe economic waves from the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-
nCoV) damage, which are generated from a large surface plotted in the same graphical space.
The large surface is formed by different parts that represent by four different economic strategic
sectors such as the tourism growth rate (∆S1), international trade growth rate (∆S2), air transportation
growth rate (∆S3), and electricity consumption growth rate (∆S4), all of which are connected
directly to a single epicenter. For the case studied in this paper, this epicenter is fixed by the

10
2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases growth rate (∆C*) in China can experience
dramatic, uncontrolled and non-logical changes at any time, such as expansion, contraction or
stagnation (Ruiz Estrada and Yap, 2013). An abrupt positive rise of the 2019 novel coronavirus
(2019-nCoV) cases growth rate (∆C*) in China can generate large negative effects at different
levels in these four economic strategic sectors simultaneously because of the reduction of the
demand of goods and services locally and internationally.

This paper assumes that the four economic strategic sectors have a large number of
windows refraction (or quadrants), each of which is formed by its X-axis, which represents
time (years), and its Y-axis, which represents the main variable(s) under consideration. The
main variables in our model of each window refraction for these four economic strategic sectors
are demand growth rate (∆D), unemployment growth rate (∆UE), the stock market growth rate
(∆SM), the foreign investment growth rate (∆FDI), and finally the economic output
contribution of each economic strategic sector in the GDP of China (∆O). Thus, each economic
strategic sector possesses five windows refraction within the same coordinate space (see Figure
17). Second, we assume that the economic wave from the massive contagious infection diseases
damage in each economic strategic sector propagate at different speeds and sizes. The size and
speed of the economic waves from the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) damage depend
on uncontrolled forces of the diseases, such as Coronavirus, Ebola, SARS, or any epidemic.
The main objective in modeling of these economic waves from the 2019 novel coronavirus
(2019-nCoV) damage is to evaluate the global negative impact that comes from any massive
unstoppable contagious infection diseases expansion in the Chinese economy. To do so, we
use multi-dimensional graphical modeling that can illustrate the movement of economic waves
from the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) damage in real time. Basically, the multi-
dimensional graphical animation technique (Ruiz Estrada, 2017) allows us to observe the
effects of any possible massive contagious infection diseases in the Chinese economy through
the generation of economic waves from the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) damage in
four different economic strategic sectors and, at the same time, gauge the level of dependency
and vulnerability of different economic strategic sectors.

This paper shows a possible economic recession in the Chinese economy in the period
2020/2021 according to the evaluation of four large economic strategic sectors such as the
tourism growth rate (∆S1), the international trade growth rate (∆S2), air transportation growth
rate (∆S3), and the electricity consumption growth rate (∆S4). We assume that the epicenter that
is connected to all four economic strategic sectors are the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
cases growth rate (∆C*) in China; at the same time, each economic strategic sector has a large
number of windows refraction. Economic waves from the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-
nCoV) damage is generated first by plotting a single value (growth rate) in each window
refraction and joining each single value located in each window refraction by straight lines
from the epicenter to the last window refraction in each economic strategic sector; we call this
concept “windows refraction links (╬)” (Ruiz Estrada, 2017). Windows refraction links (╬)
facilitates the connection of all windows refraction in the same economic strategic sector and
other economic strategic sectors simultaneously, from the epicenter to the last window
refraction in the same economic strategic sector. Therefore, the epicenter is going to affect four
economic strategic sectors simultaneously in the same graphical space but at different

11
magnitudes and speeds. We assume that these economic strategic sectors maintain a high
vulnerability constantly. In this paper, the economic waves originate from the 2019 novel
coronavirus (2019-nCoV) damage and spreads to the other economic strategic sectors,
significantly impacting the demand, unemployment, stock market, foreign direct investment,
and final outputs levels contribution of any economic strategic sector in the final GDP of China.
Figure 17 presents the economic waves from the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) damage,
which show the final output contribution in the final production output of China between 2020-
2021 in the (∆O1 = +0.3%), (∆O2 = +2.5%), (∆O3 = +0.2%), (∆O4 = +1.5%). The economic
output contribution for each economic strategic sectors (four sectors) growth rates of
China (∆O) indicate that the problem of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) damage is not
exclusive to China economy, as this visual tool shows 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
damage to be a global economic damage. This conclusion is also supported by the fast and
increasing expansion of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) contagious cases that is
sweeping much of the developed and developing world, including the Australia, U.S., E.U.,
Canada, Japan, and ASEAN. Given the tremendous influence of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-
nCoV) contagious cases on the GDP performance in the Chinese economy in the period
2020/2021. Therefore, in our simulation we are using the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
cases growth rate (∆C*) in China is equal to +65%. We have from now; we can observe how a
massive contagious infection disease such as the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) can
affect four Chinese economic strategic sectors behaviour (see Figure 17) in different
proportions dramatically:

(i) The tourism sector can suffer a several contractions of its demand in -75%, the
generation of an Unemployment rate of +10%, the stock market suffers a dramatic
contraction of -35%. At the same time, a poor performance in the attraction of FDI
for this sector that is equal to -25%. Finally, we can observe a small contribution of
+0.3% in the GDP formation growth rate of China (see Figure 17).
(ii) The international trade sector demand falls in -40%, the unemployment can arrive
easily to +15%, a dramatic contraction in the stock market of this economic strategic
sector around -25%, in the case of FDI can reduce considerable to -35%, and a light
contribution of +2.5% in the GDP formation growth rate of China compared to
recently years (see Figure 17).
(iii) The air transportation sector shows a dramatic drop of its demand in -85%, a
possible unemployment rate of +20%, and a considerable contraction of -45% in
the stock market for this economic strategic sector, and a considerable contraction
on its FDI in -40% with a final contribution of this sector with only +0.2% in the
GDP formation growth rate of China (see Figure 17).
(iv) Finally, the electricity consumption sector shows a large demand with +65% more,
the unemployment equal to 0%, a good performance in the stock market with an
expansion of +55%, a bumming of the FDI in this economic strategic sector in
+50%, and a final contribution of +1.5% in the GDP formation growth rate of China
(see Figure 17). The high electricity demand is originated from the large quarantine
and health services demand in full China. By calculating the GDP formation growth
rate of the Chinese economy as the last window refraction link, now it is possible

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 to build the economic waves from the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
damage. Our simulator can provide a clear illustration of how a massive contagious
infection diseases crisis can quickly spark a domestic and a global economic, trade,
and financial crisis faster. In the same vein, this new type of graphical modeling
offers to economists, policy makers, students and academics a multi-dimensional
graphical modeling method for analyzing any massive contagious infection diseases
crises from a domestically or globally perspective.

Hence, this paper presents the impact of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) on the
Chinese economy in the period year 2020/2021 in a single graph, and this graph allows for the
visualization of four economic strategic sectors and 16 windows refraction interacting in the
same graphical space. This graph has 1,500 values plotted into 16 windows refraction located
within four economic strategic sectors. These four economic strategic sectors comprise the
tourism growth rate (∆S1), the international trade growth rate (∆S2), air transportation growth
rate (∆S3), and the electricity consumption growth rate (∆S4). For the purposes of this study,
we will not deeply analyze the another economic strategic sectors, as we explore it only to
display the Chinese economy within a multi-dimensional coordinate space under the use of
different databases in different four economic strategic sectors.

Source: People’s Republic of China and Asian Development Bank (2020)

Fig. 17: The Application of ECMCID-Simulator in the Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

4. Comments and Remarks

This paper shows the impact of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) on the
Chinese economy. Therefore, the economic crisis from a massive contagious infection diseases
simulator (ECMCID-Simulator) is able to show graphically the final impact of the 2019 novel
coronavirus (2019-nCoV) on the Chinese economy from a multidimensional point of view. We

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 are testing four economic strategic sectors such the tourism growth rate (∆S1), the international
trade growth rate (∆S2), air transportation growth rate (∆S3), and electricity consumption
growth rate (∆S4) plotted along the rays (axes) that are drawn from the centre, each ray having
as many windows as are required at the predetermined perimeter levels, these five windows
are named demand growth rate (∆D), unemployment growth rate (∆UE), the stock market
growth rate (∆SM), the foreign investment growth rate (∆FDI), and finally the economic
output contribution of each economic strategic sector in the GDP formation growth rate of
China (∆O). According to ECMCID-Simulator shows the next results followed by: the final
contribution of each sector in the GDP formation growth rate in the period 2020/2021 is equal
to (∆O1 = +0.3%), (∆O2 = +2.5%), (∆O3 = +0.2%), (∆O4 = +1.5%) respectively. We can
observe that the sector tourism, international trade, air transportation is affected considerable.
But in the case of the electricity consumption shows a boom, we found a high demand
originated from quarantines and health medical services. At the same time, the high demand of
electricity shows a stable unemployment rate closely to 0%. In addition, we can observe also a
large expansion in the stock market and FDI simultaneously. We can also observe that the
contribution of the electricity consumption contributes considerably in the Chinese GDP
formation growth rate according to the ECMCID-Simulator.

Finally, this paper offers to policy makers, central banks, academics and students in
economics an alternative multi-dimensional graphical modeling approach to analyze the final
impact of the any massive contagious epidemic diseases crisis from a multi-dimensional
perspective. We can observe with the ECMCID-Simulator possible scenarios and the final
impact of any massive contagious epidemic diseases crisis by different levels of devastation.
The main idea is to build different simulations to measure the catastrophic effect of any
massive contagious epidemic diseases crisis on the Chinese economy or world economy.

4. References

Ruiz Estrada, M.A. (2011). “Policy Modeling: Definition, Classification and Evaluation”,
Journal of Policy Modeling, 33(4): 523-536.
Ruiz Estrada, M.A. and Yap, S.F. (2013) ‘The Origins and Evolution of Policy Modeling’,
Journal of Policy Modeling. 35(1): 170-182.
Ruiz Estrada, M.A. (2017). “An Alternative Graphical Modeling for Economics:
Econographicology”, Quality and Quantity, 51(5): 2115-2139.
Ruiz Estrada, M.A. Park, D., (2018). “The Past, Present, and Future of Policy Modeling”,
Journal of Policy Modeling, 40(1): 1-15.

People’s Republic of China and Asian Development Bank (2020). Secondary Database.
Online available at: https://www.adb.org/countries/prc/main Accessed on 15/02/2020.

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