Chin. Geogra. Sci.

2009 19(1) 089–095

DOI: 10.1007/s11769-009-0089-x
www.springerlink.com

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Water Resources

Carrying Capacity in Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China

MENG Lihong1, 2, CHEN Yaning1, LI Weihong1, ZHAO Ruifeng1, 2

(1. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; 2. Graduate University of the Chinese
Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

Abstract: This paper explores the method of comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity and sets
up an evaluation model applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the data of nature, society,
economics and water resources of the Tarim River Basin in 2002, we evaluated the water resources carrying capacity
of the basin by means of the model. The results show that the comprehensive grades are 0.438 and 0.454 for Aksu and
Kashi prefectures respectively, where the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative
high degree and there is only a very limited water carrying capacity, 0.620 for Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture,
where water resources carrying capacity is much higher, and in between for Hotan Prefecture and Bayingolin Mongo-
lian Autonomous Prefecture. As a whole, the comprehensive grade of the Tarim River Basin is 0.508 and the current
water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree. Thus, we suggest that the integrated
management of the water resources in the basin should be strengthened in order to utilize water resources scientifically
and sustainably.
Keywords: water resources capacity; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation; membership degree; Tarim River Basin;
Xinjiang

1 Introduction agement strategies, but also directly affects the sustain-

Of all the natural resources required in economic devel-
opment, water is the most important one, particularly in
arid and semi-arid areas. The water resources carrying
capacity is an important index of water resources security
which can provide guidance to the sustainable develop-
ment of arid and semi-arid areas (Shi and Qu, 1992). Pre-
vious researches on water resources carrying capacity
mainly focused on comprehensive evaluation (Wang and
Yao, 2000), system dynamic simulation (Li et al., 2000)
and multi-objective analysis. Some foreign scholars
brought water resources carrying capacity into sustain-
able development theory (Miloradov and Cukic, 1995;
Rijiberman, 2000; Harris, 1999; Falkenmark and
Lundqvist, 1998). The research on water resources car-
rying capacity of the inland river basin in arid areas not
only is important in establishing water resources man-
able development of local socio-economics.
The ecosystems in Northwest China are extremely
vulnerable due to the severe lack of water resources.
The intensified contradiction between environmental
protection and economic development of the region has
been inevitable as a result of the exploitation and utili-
zation of the limited water resources for the local eco-
nomic activities on one hand and great concerns for the
deteriorating regional environment on the other hand.
The sustainable development of the regional socio-eco-
nomy, therefore, has been seriously constrained. One
particular area for such concern is the Tarim River Ba-
sin in the south of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,
Northwest China, which is the longest inland river in
China, with the mainstream measuring 1321km in
length (Chen et al., 2004).
In the past five decades, the natural ecological proc-

Received date: 2008-06-18; accepted date: 2008-11-25

Foundation item: Under the auspices of Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-127), Na-
tional Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40671014, 90502007)
Corresponding author: CHEN Yaning. E-mail: chenyn@ms.xjb.ac.cn
90 MENG Lihong, CHEN Yaning, LI Weihong et al.
ess in the watershed has been obviously changed under
the intensive human activities dominated by exploitation
and utilization of water resources, and the conflict be-
tween ecological protection and economic development
has been becoming increasingly manifest. The lower
321-km section of the river was completely dry and Lop
Lake and Taitema Lake which are at the tail of the
Tarim River, dried up in 1970 and 1972 respectively.
Furthermore, the groundwater level in the most regions
downstream lowered (Chen and Xu, 2004; Xu et al,
2008). These environmental problems led to the degra-
dation of Populus euphratica forests over large areas, a
heavy reduction of the biodiversity, and an impairment
of the ecosystem structure and functions. The increas-
ingly deteriorating environment and shortage of water
resources of the Tarim River Basin have caused great
concerns. Previous studies on the Tarim River Basin
mainly focused on the relationship between groundwater
and plant species diversity (Chen et al., 2006), and the
water resources utilization and exploitation (Mao, 2001).
Some researchers have also conducted research to de-
termine the relationship between the regional economic
development and ecological consequences concerning
exploitation of water resources (Ma and Gao, 1997; Ma,
2000). However, there have been few attempts to study
and understand the water resources carrying capacity of
the Tarim River Basin. In this paper we evaluate the
water resources carrying capacity by means of a fuzzy
comprehensive evaluation model, using data of nature,
society, economics and water resources of the Tarim
River Basin in 2002. The objective of the research is to
Fig. 1 Location map of Tarim River Basin, Xingjiang, China
provide decision-makers bases for making policies on
the sustainable exploitation and utilization of the Tarim
River Basin.
2 Study Area
There are five prefectures in the Tarim River Basin, in-
cluding Aksu, Kashi and Hotan prefectures, and Kizilsu
Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture, and Bayingolin Mongo-
lian Autonomous Prefecture (Mao, 2001). It is com-
posed of nine water systems in the periphery of the ba-
sin, the mainstream of the Tarim River, the Taklimakan
Desert and the eastern Gobi (Chen and Xu, 2004). With
the historic changes and the intensive disturbance by
human activities, especially the exploitation of oasis
agriculture, great changes have taken place in the basin.
Most water systems were gradually dismembered and
have lost relation with the mainstream. Up to now only
three water systems, the Hotan River, the Yarkant River
and the Aksu River, have a natural hydraulic relation-
ship with the mainstream. The three rivers, together with
the Kaidu-Konqi River that delivers water to the lower
reaches of the mainstream through the Kuta Main Canal,
are called the four headstreams (Song, 1999) (Fig. 1).
3 Data and Method
3.1 Data sources
The data used in this paper were collected from Water
Resources Communique of Tarim River Basin of Xinji-
ang 2002 and Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook 1955–2005
 Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang 91

(Xinjiang Statistical Bureau, 2005), which include basic
situation of the four headstreams and the mainstream of
the Tarim River and five prefectures in the Tarim River
Basin, such as the population, land area, average annual
precipitation, total water resources, total water supply
and so on. The values of evaluation factors were calcu-
lated from the original data. In addition, the indices of
the gradation of each evaluation factor were determined
by consulting other evaluation standard of water re-
sources (Wang et al, 2005; Xu, 1993).
conditions, the exploitation and utilization situation, the
relationship between supply and demand, and the eco-
logical environment status well. Based on the evaluation
indexes system of China (Huang and Ma, 1990), we use
the grey relational analysis method (Qin et al., 2000) and
choose six indexes from 14 indexes and add the reference
index (Table 1) to evaluate water resources carrying ca-
pacity of the Tarim River Basin. The use efficiency of
water resources is considered as the reference index.
Table 1 Results of grey relation analysis

3.2 Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model Evaluation index Relation grade Result
Irrigation ratio of arable land 0.74586
Giving two finite groups U= [u1, u2,…, um], V= [v1, v2,…,
Utilization degree of water resources 0.89635 Chosen
vn], U stands for the aggregate composed of all the
Water supply modulus 0.85362 Chosen
evaluation factors; V stands for the aggregate composed Water demand modulus 0.81420 Chosen
of all the remark grades; rij is the judge result of evalua- Repeating utilization of industrial water 0.71230
tion factor ui to remark vj, so the judge decision-making Speed of GDP growth 0.63950
matrix of m evaluation factors is as follows (Wang et al., Speed of population growth 0.79360

2005): Per capita domestic water 0.89690 Chosen

GDP modulus 0.74520
⎡ R1 ⎤ ⎡r11 r12 L r1n ⎤
Population density 0.69860
⎢ R ⎥ ⎢r ⎥
r22 L r2 n ⎥
R=⎢ ⎥=⎢
2 21 Per capita practical water supply 0.92310 Chosen
(1)
⎢ M ⎥ ⎢L L L L⎥ Annual precipitation 0.85230 Chosen
⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ Ecological water use ratio 0.74250
⎣ Rm ⎦ ⎣⎢rm1 rm 2 L rmn ⎦⎥
Use efficiency of water resources Reference index Chosen
where R is the fuzzy connection of U to V, and Ri is the
fuzzy connection of ui to V. If the weight of each The seven evaluation factors which have been chosen
evaluation factor is A= [a1, a2,…, am] (A is a fuzzy sub- in Table 1 include the use efficiency of water resources
class of aggregate U, 0≤ai≤1, and the sum of ai is 1), one (u1) (the ratio of water supply to available water re-
fuzzy subclass of aggregate V can be worked out by ap- sources gross); the utilization degree of water resources
plying the synthetic operation of fuzzy transform, which (u2) (the ratio of water supply to gross water resources);
is the comprehensive evaluation result: the water supply modulus (u3) (the ratio of water supply
B = A ⋅ R = [b1 , b2 ,L , b n ] (2) to land acreage); the water demand modulus (u4) (the
where B stands for a fuzzy aggregate of V. Fuzzy trans- ratio of water demand to land acreage); per capita do-
mestic water (u5) (the ratio of domestic water quantity to
form A⋅R changes into common matrix calculation,
gross population per day); the per capita practical water
which refers to many factors in all directions and is
supply (u6) (the ratio of water supply to gross popula-
suitable for multi-factors sequence. The calculation can
tion); annual precipitation (u7) (precipitation of the same
be described as follows:
year). Those seven factors have a high influence on the
⎧⎪ m ⎫⎪ water resources of the Tarim River Basin, and play a
bj = min ⎨1,
⎪⎩
∑a r
i =1
i ij⎬
⎪⎭
(3)
great role in the water resources carrying capacity
evaluation of the watershed.
3.3 Selection and gradation of evaluation factors Consulting other evaluation standard of water re-
There are many factors which affect water resources car- sources (Xu, 1993), we define three grades for the sig-
rying capacity. In order to choose rational index system nificance of seven evaluation factors to water resources
and evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of the carrying capacity in the Tarim River Basin. The indexes
Tarim River Basin scientifically, it is necessary to choose of each grade are listed for each factor in Table 2. v1
several indexes which can reflect the water resources stands for the worst situation, which shows that water
92 MENG Lihong, CHEN Yaning, LI Weihong et al.

resources carrying capacity has been close to full and of which can be calculated through the comparison of
more exploitation of the water resources will lead to the actural value of each evaluation factor to the classi-
water resources shortage and environmental deteriora- fication index of the corresponding factor (Table 2).
tion; v3 stands for the best situation, which shows that In order to eliminate the defect of slight difference of
the water resources still have great potential and the de- values in each grade and jumping phenomenon existing
gree of water resources utilization and the scale of de- in different evaluation grades, it is necessary to dispose
velopment are small. v2 is between v1 and v3, which in- membership function fuzzily and to let all grades transit
dicates that the scale of water resources exploitation and smoothly (Huang and Ma, 1990). As far as v2 is con-
utilization has reached certain extent, but still has cer- cerned, the membership degree in the midpoint is 1, the
tain potential for exploitation and utilization. membership degree in the two sides is 0.5, and the value
In order to reflect the situation of water resources car- descends linearly from the midpoint to the two sides. As
rying capacity much better, the grades 0–1 are distrib- far as v1 and v3 are concerned, if the distance to the critical
uted to v1–v3: α1=0.05, α2=0.5, α3=0.95 (Table 2). In value is longer, the membership degree will be higher; if
this way, the influential degree of evaluation factors to it is in the critical value, the membership degree of the
water resources carrying capacity can be reflected quan- two edges will be 0.5. According to these rules, the equa-
titatively. The higher the grade is, the greter the poten- tion for calculating each membership degree can be con-
tial of water resources exploitation will be. structed. If the critical value of v1 and v2 is k1, the critical
value of v2 and v3 is k3, and the value of v2 is k2, k2=
Table 2 Indices of gradation of each evaluation factor
(k1+k3)/2. For example, for the u1 (use efficiency of water
Evaluation factor v1 v2 v3 resources), k1=75%, k3=50%, k2=62.5%.
Use efficiency of water resources (%) >75 75–50 <50 About evaluation factors u1, u2, u3, u4, u5, the equa-
Utilization degree of water resources (%) >70 70–30 <30
tions of each membership function (μvj(ui)) can be de-
Water supply modulus (×103m3/km2) >150 150–10 <10
noted as follows:
Water demand modulus (×103m3/km2) >150 150–10 <10
⎧ u i − k1
⎪0.5(1 + u − k ) u i ≥ k1
Per capita domestic water (L/(person·d)) >130 130–70 <70
3
Per capita practical water supply (m /person) <2500 2500–4500 >4500
⎪⎪ i 2
Annual precipitation (mm) <350 350–450 >450 μ v1 (u i ) = ⎨ k1 − u i (5)
Grade 0.05 0.5 0.95 ⎪0.5(1 − k − k ) k 2 ≤ u i < k1
⎪ 1 2
⎪⎩ 0 ui < k 2
When evaluating comprehensively, we calculate the
comprehensive grade α from αj and bj in B matrix, using ⎧ ui − k1
⎪0.5(1 − u − k ) ui ≥k1
the following equation (Min et al., 2004): ⎪ i 2
3 ⎪0.5(1 + k1 − ui ) k 2 ≤ ui < k1
∑b k
j αj ⎪
μv2 (ui ) = ⎨ k1 − k 2
(6)
α=
j =1
(4) u − k3
3 ⎪0.5(1 + i ) k 3 ≤ ui < k 2
∑b k
j
⎪
⎪
k 2 − k3
k3 − ui
⎪0.5(1 − k − u ) ui < k 3
j =1

where αj stands for the grade of vj. According to the ⎩ 2 i

situation in arid area, k=1 (Xu, 1993). It is obvious that ⎧

the higher α is, the greater the potential of water re- ⎪0 ui ≥k2
sources carrying capacity will be. ⎪0.5(1 − ui − k3 ) k3 ≤ ui <k2
⎪ k2 − k3
μv3 (ui ) = ⎨ (7)
3.4 Calculation of judge matrix ⎪0.5(1 + k3 − ui ) ui ≤k3
From what has been analyzed, it is obvious that the ag-
⎪ k2 − ui
⎪
gregate of evaluation factors U= [u1, u2,…, um] corre- ⎩
sponds to the aggregate of remarks V= [v1, v2,…, vm], When calculating u6 and u7, it is necessary to change
and rij of the judge matrix R is the membership function “≥” into “≤” and change “<” into “>”in the equations
of any factor ui corresponding to any grade vj, the value (5)–(7).
 Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang 93

4 Results and Analysis Based on the natural, socio-economic conditions and

According to the situation of water supply and demand
of different streams (Table 3), the difference of other
correlative factors, and combining regionalism, we
evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of the
whole watershed comprehensively based on the analyses
of five prefectures of Bayingolin, Aksu, Kizilsu, Kashi
and Hotan.
the situation of water resources exploitation, the devel-
opment program of the Tarim River Basin, and accord-
ing to the basic data in 2002, we evaluate the use effi-
ciency of water resources, utilization degree of water
resources, the water supply modulus, the water demand
modulus, per capita domestic water, per capita practical
water supply, annual precipitation (Table 4).

Table 3 Basic situation of four headstreams and mainstream in the Tarim River Basin
Population Land area Average annual precipitation Total water resources Total water supply
Area
(×106 person) (km2) (mm) (×109m3) (×109m3)
Aksu River 1.1.99 42800 221.1 6.994 6.0603
Yarkant River 1.6276 76950 260.8 6.770 6.1173
Hotan River 1.1119 62390 262.8 5.430 2.6936
Kaidu-Konqi River 0.7590 49584 213.5 7.363 4.1204
Mainstream 1.9934 17580 40.7 – 0.8113
Note: The mainstream does not produce stream flow itself

Table 4 Statistics of evaluation indices for sub-regions with different water resources carrying capacity in Tarim River Basin
Bayingolin Aksu Kizilsu Kashi Hotan Tarim River Basin
Use efficiency of water resources (%) 30.00 50.20 4.63 50.00 45.00 35.00
Utilization degree of water resources (%) 39.80 59.70 1.90 88.00 31.70 44.40
Water supply modulus (×103m3/km2) 21.6 70.1 2.0 75.3 24.9 28.9
3 3 2
Water demand modulus (×10 m /km ) 36.2 131.3 21.3 160.5 52.5 71.0
Per capita domestic water (L/(person·d)) 230 74 40 48 57 94
3
Per capita practical water supply (m /person) 4048 1185 295 1747 1545 1785
Annual precipitation (mm) 192 286 310 490 397 304

Sources: Xinjiang Statiscal Bureau, 2005; Water Resources Communique of Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang, compiled by the Tarim River Basin Administra-
tion Bureau, 2002

From the value of each evaluation factor in Table 3, China. The weight of each evaluation factor can be got
the membership degree rij can be calculated according to by level analysis method, namely A= (0.2 0.15 0.1 0.1
the equations (2)–(4), in which ri1=uv1(ui), ri2=uv2(ui), 0.15 0.2 0.1). Based on A and R given above, the final
ri3=uv3(ui). After considering the influence degree of evaluation matrix of water resources carrying capacity
each evaluation index on water resources carrying ca- can be obtained by using the equation B=AxR. For ex-
pacity and the intersection of different index, each ample, the comprehensive evaluation of Bayingolin in
evaluation factor was endowed with different weight 2002 is as follows:
referring to the standard of water resources evaluation in
⎡ 0 0.193 0.808 ⎤
⎢ 0 0.745 0.255 ⎥
⎢ 0 0.583 0.417 ⎥
B = A ⋅ R = (0.2 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.1) ⎢ 0 0.687 0.313 ⎥ = (0.220 0.452 0.328)
⎢0.885 0.116 0 ⎥
⎢ 0 0.726 0.274 ⎥
⎢0.880 0.120 0 ⎥
⎣ ⎦
In the same way, the comprehensive evaluation re- whole watershed in 2002 can be figured out (Table 5), bj
sults of water resources in other prefectures and the of matrix B is the result of each evaluation factor effects
94 MENG Lihong, CHEN Yaning, LI Weihong et al.

jointly. Based on bj of matrix B and Equation (1), the
comprehensive evaluation results of water resources
carrying capacity of the Tarim River Basin in 2002 can
be calculated.
Table 5 Comprehensive evaluation results of regional water
resources carrying capacity in Tarim River Basin
Comprehensive
Sub-area v1 v2 v3
grade
Bayingolin 0.220 0.452 0.328 0.549
Aksu 0.308 0.521 0.171 0.438
Kizilsu 0.241 0.252 0.507 0.620
Kashi 0.313 0.477 0.210 0.454
Hotan 0.149 0.497 0.354 0.592
Tarim River Basin 0.216 0.550 0.234 0.508
As is shown in Table 5, the membership degree of bj
to v2 is relatively high, but the membership degree of bj
to v1 and v3 is relatively low. From the results we can
see that the current water exploitation and utilization of
the Tarim River Basin have reached a relative high de-
gree. Therefore, it is urgent to utilize water resources
efficiently and to pay much attention to saving water
resources in the economic development and environ-
mental protection in the region. For each prefecture of
the Tarim River Basin, the water resources carrying ca-
pacity of Aksu and Kashi is not optimistic, and their
comprehensive grades are 0.438 and 0.454 respectively.
The membership degree of comprehensive evaluation
result to v1 is high as 0.308 and 0.313 respectively, but
the membership degree of comprehensive evaluation
results to v3 is only 0.171 and 0.210 respectively. Con-
sequently, the potential of water resources exploitation
is low. However, the situation of Kizilsu is more opti-
mistic, the comprehensive grade is 0.620, and the mem-
bership degree of evaluation result to v1 is 0.241, but the
membership degree of evaluation result to v3 is as high
as 0.507. It is obvious that the water resources potential
of the prefecture is relatively great, and the water re-
sources can still sustain the economic development and
environmental protection in the future. The situation of
Bayingolin and Hotan is intermediate between the above
two extremities. According to the analysis on the situa-
tion of water resources exploitation and utilization of
each prefecture, the ratio of total water supply in total
water resources is 86.65% and 90.36% respectively in
the Aksu River Basin (Aksu Prefecture) and the Yarkant
River Basin (Kashi Prefecture), where the degree of
water resources exploitation and utilization is as high as
59.70% and 88%. They are both higher than those in
Bayingolin and Hotan. However, the use efficiency of
water resources and degree of water resources exploita-
tion and utilization in Kizilsu are 4.63% and 1.90%,
where the potential of water resources exploitation is
great. From what has been discussed above, we can say
that the evaluated results accord with the actual situa-
tion.
5 Conclusions and Discussion
This paper evaluates the water resources carrying capac-
ity by means of a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
model. The results show that the comprehensive grade
of the Tarim River Basin is 0.508, and the current water
exploitation and utilization have reached a relative high
degree, and there is only a very limited remaining water
carrying capacity. The comprehensive grades of Aksu
and Kashi are 0.438 and 0.454 respectively, the current
water exploitation and utilization have reached a relative
high degree, and there is only a very limited remaining
water carrying capacity. The comprehensive grade of
Kizilsu is as high as 0.620, and the water resources car-
rying capacity is much higher. The situation of Bayin-
golin and Hotan is intermediate between the above two
extremities. In order to reduce the water resources crisis
in the Tarim River Basin and to alleviate the conflicts
between ecology and the economic exploitation of water
resources, it is urgent to adopt some fundamental meas-
ures to promote the water carrying capacity as follows:
As far as Kashi is concerned, where the utilization
degree of water resources is as high as 88.0%, it is time
to strengthen cropland work, encourage and guide most
peasants to develop water saving irrigation, and improve
use efficiency of water resources.
For the prefecture of Aksu, aiming at the problems of
ageing of irrigation projects, low standards of reservoirs
construction, imperfect function and irrational project
arrangement, it is imperative to carry out water saving
irrigation, to improve irrigation guarantee rate and use
efficiency of water resources.
There is some potential of water resources exploita-
tion in Bayingolin and Hotan prefectures, but the ex-
ploitation rate is low. Therefore, some measures should
be adopt including exploiting groundwater rationally
and using surface water sufficiently. Furthermore, it is
 Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang
urgent to deal with the relationship among production
water, domestic water and ecological water correctly
according to the demand of socio-economic develop-
ment and ecological environment.
As for Kizilsu, some progress of water resources pro-
tection has been made. However, serial serious problems
about water resources utilization and exploitation still
exist, such as the waste of water resources, and the low
use coefficient of irrigated water. Hence, some funda-
mental measures should be taken including saving water
resources, accelerating the construction of disposal sys-
tem of town sewage, and protecting water supply source
in urban and rural areas.
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