Water Resour Manage (2014) 28:287–300

DOI 10.1007/s11269-013-0496-8

Application of System Dynamics to Water

Security Research

Zhihe Chen & Shuai Wei

Received: 17 May 2013 / Accepted: 15 December 2013 /

Published online: 29 December 2013
# Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Abstract Water security is an important component of regional security and sustainable

development and it significantly affects regional development strategies. Flood security,
water resource security, and water environment security are the basic elements of a water
security system. These elements exhibit dynamic and complex characteristics. System
dynamics (SD) is a qualitative and quantitative simulation and analysis method for system
integration. SD is applicable to complex system research and has achieved significant results
in water security system research. This study initially collected literature on water security
research and application in recent years, and then verified the progress and deficiencies in
current research. Our research on water security focuses on managing and predicating a
single subsystem. Our research on flood control and disaster mitigation focuses on manag-
ing and forecasting floods. Our research on water resource security focuses on water
resource management, carrying capacity, and planning, as well as on sustainable water
utilization. Finally, our research on water environment security includes water quality
management, water pollution control, early warning systems, and water ecology. The SD
method can properly solve the complicated relations in a water security system but exhibits
limitations in the following aspects: research on large systems; influence of social environ-
ment changes; uncertainties in water security; and the methods, means, and influence of
natural environment changes on water security.

Keywords Water security . System dynamics . Security in flood control and disaster mitigation .
Water resource security . Water environment security

Z. Chen : S. Wei (*)

Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education
Institute, Guangzhou 510275, China
e-mail: weishuai521314@126.com
Z. Chen
e-mail: chzhihe@gmail.com

Z. Chen : S. Wei
Department of Water Resources and Environment, Geography and Planning School of Sun Yat-sen
University, Guangzhou 510275, China
288 Z. Chen, S. Wei

1 Foreword

Water is an important resource for maintaining the sustainable development of regional

societies and economies, as well as for upholding virtuous cycles in regional natural ecosys-
tems. Numerous countries have focused on water security issues in their national security
strategies (Yan et al. 2007). The report Water Security Challenges in the 21st Century
presented at the 2012 International Water Security Conference emphasized that water security
affects individuals, cities, countries, regions, river basins, and global social problems (Grey
and Garrick 2012). Vörösmarty et al. (2010) indicated that 80 % of the population of the world
is under serious threats from lack of water security. At the Fourth Water Forum in 2012, United
Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called on the international community to act imme-
diately in solving water-related issues that face the world (2012). More than 400 studies on
water security have been published. More than half of these studies have been published over
the past 5 years, thus indicating the tremendous importance of water security issues (Bakker
2012; Cook and Bakker 2012). Most research has focused unilaterally on flood control,
disaster mitigation, water resource security, and water environment security by using concep-
tual frameworks and qualitative analyses. Cook and Bakker (2012) and Allen et al. (2010)
indicated that the concept of water security has recently aroused widespread concern. Chen
(2004, 2006) stated that water security refers to the bearing capacity of a region or country for
water-related disasters and the sustainable utilization of water to ensure social, economic, and
ecological sustainable development. Xia et al. (2004) qualitatively analyzed water resource and
water security issues, as well as their corresponding causes, in North China. However, existing
quantitative and system integration research on water security remains lacking.
A water security system includes flood control and disaster mitigation, water resource
security, water environment security, and other subsystems (Li et al. 2007). Such system also
exhibits complicated characteristics. The subsystems have a relationship that features interde-
pendence and inter-restriction. Each subsystem is the result of the interaction among numerous
factors, and the uncertainty of linear and nonlinear relationships among such factors compli-
cates the water security issue. In present research, water security research tend to focus on
evaluation methods, which mainly include principal component analysis, multiobjective
decision analysis, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, SD etc. Besides, there are a series of
models such as model of principal components analysis (Kotti et al. 2005), goal programming
model (Zarghami 2010), fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (Chang et al. 2001), projec-
tion pursuit evaluation model (Wang and Ni 2008), SD model which were constructed on the
basis of those methods. Among these methods, mathematical method is the most widely used
and it is easier to construct model and easier to master than system dynamics method, but it is
difficult to express the relationship between water and social economy, ecological environ-
ment, flood control and disaster mitigation, so it is improper for macroscopic research of long-
term dynamic trend. SD is a qualitative and quantitative research method that includes system
integrated analysis and simulation. SD can simulate the structure of various complex systems
in a well-rounded manner and can analyze the internal relation of systems. SD is also adept in
high-order and nonlinear problems, and can properly handle various feedback relationships
(Wang 1995a). Khan et al. (2009) simulated the water budget of a paddy field system. The
dynamic model data indicated that the SD method effectively simulates complex water
resource systems. Zhang et al. (2002) stated that the SD method has clear advantages in
simulating water security systems. The current paper describes the applicability of the SD
method in a water security system through research and application in various subsystem
modules. An analysis is conducted in the current study, which provides conclusions regarding
deficiencies and identifies application prospects of the SD method.
Application of System Dynamics to Water Security Research 289

2 Introduction to SD

2.1 The SD Method

Forrester (1956) developed SD by combining applied control theory, information theory,

decision theory, and other relevant theories and methods. SD integrates structures, functions,
materials, information, science, and experiences; thus, it enables horizontal linkages between
the natural and social sciences (Wang 1995b). SD can handle high-order, nonlinear, multi-
feedback, complicated, and volatile system issues. Moreover, it is an ideal method for
investigating the law of motion of complex systems. SD describes the dependence relationship
between the change rate of system state variables and such state variables or specific inputs by
using the first-order differential equation with time lag as the nature. SD breaks up the change
rate into a description of several flow rates based on the conditions of the actual system and as
required by the research. In this regard, the system concept becomes clear. SD is conducive for
modeling and seeking the control point of the system. Flow rate equations are the main
component of the SD model; these equations describe the law of variation for the state variable
(flow level) (Wang et al. 1999). The steps in using SD are as follows (Ricardo and Alberto
2005; Vincenot et al. 2011): (1) defining simulation objectives, (2) determining system
boundary, (3) designing a user-interface graphical structure of the system, (4) developing
stock-flow diagrams, (5) formulating a mathematical model, (6) calibrating and validating the
model, and (7) implementing the model. Through qualitative and quantitative methods, SD
studies system issues by combining overall systematic thinking with analysis, reasoning, and
integration. SD is an effective tool for scientific decision making and forecasting. This tool has
been extensively used in decision-making research for the regional macro development
strategy known as the “Laboratory of Strategies and Tactics” (Dong 2003).
Although SD has unique advantages for handling complex systems, it still has certain
limitations. For example, SD, with its short history, is associated with imperfect theoretical and
method systems, strict requirements on the academic quality of modelers (Ding et al. 2011),
inaccurate medium-term and short-term prediction and allocation, tremendous modeling
difficulties, huge errors with simple software (Xu and Zou 2006), poor processing of abundant
space data, and failure to simulate the spatial elements and status of systems (Zhang et al.
2010; Wei et al. 2012). These limitations attract the attention of researchers and will be
gradually addressed in future developments.

2.2 The SD Research Process

SD, which is characterized by the simulation and prediction of complex nonlinear systems, has
been extensively used in scientific research on certain macro issues involved in sustainable
development worldwide. SD is also applicable to solving difficulties in modeling and simu-
lation research on the sustainable development of large systems. Forrester (1958, 1961, 1981)
used SD for conducting research on business management issues. Thereafter, the research
objects have extended to large systems, such as urban societies and the world (Forrester 1993,
1999). During the 1970s, American scholars established a national economic system model
based on SD for economic analysis and planning. This model does not only simultaneously
solve intensified inflation, unemployment rate, and effective interest rate that have troubled
economists for a long time, but also discloses the internal mechanism of American and
Western economic long waves (Meadows 1994; Wichelns et al. 1996; Raskin et al. 1996).
The Club of Rome, which is composed of dozens of scientists, established two world models
(WORLD II: World Dynamics and WORLD III: The Limits to Growth and Toward Global
290 Z. Chen, S. Wei

Equilibrium) by using SD, which resulted in worldwide repercussions (Wang 1994; Meadows
et al. 2008; Zhong et al. 2009). In addition, establishing a world water model based on SD
provides important theories and methods for assessing world water resources (White 1971; Li
1996; Frederiksen 1996; Simonovic 2003). The SD method is applicable to simulating the
evolutionary process of large complex systems. SD is established and developed in three
important stages, the details on which are shown in Table 1.

3 Progress of Water Security Research Based on SD

Water security research aims to investigate the status of security subsystems in flood control,
disaster mitigation, water resource security, and water environment security based on foreseeable
technologies, economic and social development levels, and the principle of sustainable develop-
ment. In recent years, the term of “water security” has received increased attention and has been
defined in many different ways (Bakker 2012; Cook and Bakker 2012; UN Water 2013). Zhang
et al. (2005) believed that the term “water security” can be defined as the way water exists and

Table 1 The development process of SD (Wang 1994, 1995a, b; Zhong et al. 2006, 2009)

Development Representative works

The first stage (Beginning) Forrester JW(1956). Established SD and applied to Industry Enterprise
1950s–1960s Management.
Forrester JW(1956). Industrial Dynamics: A Breakthrough for Decision Makers.
Forrester JW(1961). Industrial Dynamics.
Forrester JW(1968). Principles of Systems.
Forrester JW(1969). Urban Dynamics.
The second stage (Maturity) Meadows DH, Meadows DL, et al. (1972). The Limits to Growth:
1970s–1980s A Report for the Club of Rome Project on the Predicament of Mankind.
Forrester JW(1973). World Dynamics.
Meadows DL, Meadows DH(1974). Toward Global Equilibrium: Collected
Papers.
Sterman JD(1985). A Behavioral Model of the Economic long Wave.
Sterman JD(1986). The Economic Long Wave: Theory and Evidence.
Saeed K(1986). The Dynamics of Economic Growth and Political Instability in
the Developing.
Sterman JD(1989). Deterministic Chaos in an Experimental Economic System.
Forrester JW(1989). The System Dynamics National Model: Macro behavior
from Microstructure Modeling Growth Strategy in a Biotechnology Startup
Firm.
The third stage (Application) Senge PM(1990). The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning
1990s–now Organization.
Abdel-Hamid TK, Mandick SE(1991). Software Project Dynamics: An
Integrated Approach.
Naill RF(1992). A System Dynamics Model for National Energy Policy
Planning.
Naill RF(1992). An Analysis of the Cost Effectiveness of U.S. Energy
Policies to Mitigate Global Warming.
Sterman JD(2000). Business Dynamics Systems Thinking and Modeling
for a Complex Wor1d.
Application of System Dynamics to Water Security Research 291

water related activities that do no harm to the stability and development of society or at a degree
that can be controlled. Xia et al. (2007) argued that water security means the ability to supply
water, according to a specified quality, to homes and industry under conditions satisfactory to the
environment and at an acceptable price. The definition of water security includes popultion-wide
security, economic security, and ecological security. A widely adapted definition of water security
is “an acceptable level of water-related risks to humans and ecosystems, coupled with the
availability of water of sufficient quantity and quality to support livelihoods, national security,
human health, and ecosystem services” (Grey and Sadoff 2007; Grey et al. 2013; Zeitoun 2011).
Hong (1999) believed that water security refers to natural water security such as droughts, floods,
and river diversions, as well as man-made water security such as water shortage, water pollution,
and water disruption. Water security is a key element for supporting societies and economies, as
well as for directly influencing the security and stability of countries and regions. Water security
research has drawn the attention of experts and scholars in various countries and has become a
significant issue in national security research. Water security research based on SD in the past
20 years is presented in Table 2.
A water security system is a large and complex system that includes subsystems such as
society, economy, water resources, water ecology, and water environment (Chang and Huang
2006). This system involves numerous aspects such as resources, population, ecological
environment, social economy, technology, and policy. A water security system is also a
complex feedback system with numerous influencing factors. System complexity determines
the uncertainty of system development conditions within a certain period, establishes various
feedback relationships through the SD model, presents complex interaction relations between
systems (i.e., the environment and various subsystems within the system), as well as simulates
and forecasts the structure, functions, and development of the system. Progress on the
application of the SD method in flood control and disaster mitigation, water resource security,
and water environment security is presented in the succeeding sections.

Table 2 Research on water security based on SD in recent 20 years

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Ahmad S, Simonovic SP
Disaster Mitigation
Flood control and

Li L, Simonovic SP
Simonovic SP, Li L
Ahmad S, Simonovic SP, Qiu DH
Song QN, Tang DS
Song RP
• Li L, Xu H, Chen X, Simonovic SP, He L
The main research scholars in the subsystem

Shen BF
Gao YC, Liu CM
Fang CL, Yu DL
Chen CX, Yan GL
\water resource security

Hui YH, Jiang XH, et al

Simonovic SP, Xu ZX, Takuchi K, et al
Simonovic SP, Stave KA
Simonovic SP, Tidwell VC, Passell HD, Wang H, et al
Tidwell VC, Leonard A, Geng XJ
Langsdale S, Beall A, Carmichael J, Cohen S, Forster C
Zhang ZW, Yang LH, Ma YL, et al
Winz I, Brierley G, Trowsdale S
Dai W
Zhang HQ
Goldani M, Amadeh H, Zarghami M, Ryu JH, Mirchi A, et al.
Moffatt I
Water environment security

Coyle RG, Ford A Deaton ML, Winebrake JI Peng WQ

Nirmalakhandan N, Elshorbagy A, Teegavarapu RSV, Yu SX, et al
Teegavarapu RSV , Tangirala AK, Ormsbee L
Karamouz M, Akhbari M, Moridi A, Han Q, Xie DH, et al
Feng LH, Zhang XC, et al
Guo SY, Zhou Z, et al
Fan QX, Li Y, Li J, et al
Chen X, Liu GY
The

Jin M, Hu C, Zhang WS, et al

Su nik J, Rong SH, Wang L, et al
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
292 Z. Chen, S. Wei

3.1 Research on and Application of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation

A flood refers to a considerable runoff phenomenon. A flood starts within a certain time range
and region and cannot be safely discharged, thus leading to casualties and property losses. The
main forms of flood include storm floods and dam-bursting floods. Floods are characterized by
abruptness, water concentration, strong destructive power, and wide impact range. Floods are
serious natural disasters that cause significant casualties and property losses throughout the
world every year. Therefore, flood control and disaster mitigation are an integral part of water
security. The SD method is primarily applied to flood management and forecast research.
(1) Flood management
Flood management is an important part of flood control and disaster mitigation, and
the formation mechanism of floods is the basis of effective flood management. Li and
Simonovic (2002, 2003, 2010) explored the hydrological process of floods in a snowmelt
region and established SD model for assessing the impact of climate change on flood
control systems and reservoir operation. They found that temperature change and
snowmelt are vital to the development of floods and afterwards they highlighted the
relationship between future climatic change and flood control. Ahmad and Simonovic
(2000a, b, 2006) developed SD model instead of the traditional flood control model and
built an intelligent decision support system for flood management. He et al. (2010)
simulated the water resource supply and demand system of Handan Municipality from
2005 to 2030. They found that flood detention time can be extended by using ecological
water networks.
(2) Flood forecasting
Qiu (2006) and Song (2009) considered flood control and disaster mitigation as
subsystems of water security and combined them into a large complex system with the
social, economic, and environmental systems. They also built a simulation model for a
regional water security strategy by using the SD method, concluded future water security
grades under different projects, and provided several countermeasures. Song and Tang
(2007) quantitatively investigated the interrelation between social and economic systems
and the flood system, built a flood control and early warning model, and conducted
empirical analysis in Fushun, China. This result indicated a disharmony between the
flood control and social economic systems. Furthermore, the flood control and social
economic systems were in tentative harmony for 30.77 % of the total years and in
harmony for 57.69 %. Effective flood prediction saves time for smooth mass transfer and
government rescue.
Most research on flood control and disaster mitigation has focused on the simulation
and control of floods, and research regarding serious economic and social effects after
flood recession remains limited.

3.2 Research on and Application of Water Resource Security

Water resource security is an important component of water security. Fang (2007) argued that
water resource security issues should focus on solving the imbalance between the supply and
demand of water resources, which can undermine social and economic development as well as
the stability of the ecological environment system. The appraisal of water resource security
involves the water resource pressure index (Falkemark 1989), social water scarcity index
(Appelgern and Klohn 1999; Ohlsson 2000), water poverty index (Manandhar et al. 2012;
Wilk and Jonsson 2013), and water resource carrying capacity. Complex system issues in
Application of System Dynamics to Water Security Research 293

water resource security can be revealed by the SD model, which effectively simulates,
analyzes, and assesses water resource carrying capacity.
Water resource security research started in the 1970s when the SD method was extensively
applied. The SD model for water resources on global and regional bases received early
attention. Simonovic (2002a, b) built a global water model, conducted a macro assessment
of the water resource situation in the world, as well as assessed and forecast available water
throughout the world by simulating global water resources. Langsdale et al. (2007) used the
SD model to study the decrease in water resource supply and the increase in water resource
demand resulting from global climate change. Goldani et al. (2012) and Zarghami and
Akbariyeh (2012) have done some research on the simulation of urban water supply and
demand using SD model. The main research directions at the present stage are the following.

(1) Water resource management

Limited water resources are available for human use within a certain time and space.
In this regard, developing a scientific and effective water resource management system,
as well as improving the utilization and configuration of water resources, is a fundamen-
tal means of achieving water resource security. SD provides technical support for water
resource management and offers solutions to the dynamic and complex issues in water
resource management. Stave (2003) illustrated the process of building a strategy-level SD
model by using the water management case in Las Vegas, Nevada. Simonovic and
Rajasekaram (2004) developed a water resource management model for the Canadian
water system based on the SD method. The model considered the dynamic interactions
between the quantitative characteristics of available water resources and water use
determined by the socio-economic development level, the population, and the physio-
graphic features of the Canadian territory. Conclusions were drawn for the 12 scenarios
developed. Winz et al. (2009) and Ryu et al. (2012) solved dynamic and complex issues
in water resource management as well as the interaction between surface water and
groundwater by using the SD method. They found that SD combined with stakeholder
involvement provides an appropriate method for addressing these issues effectively.
(2) Water resource carrying capacity
Water resource carrying capacity is an important component of various natural
resource carrying capacities in the sustainable development of a country or region.
Water resource carrying capacity is also an important index for assessing water resource
security (Xia and Zhu 2002). Water resource shortage is a bottleneck factor that restricts
the development of human society and that affects the comprehensive development and
developmental scale of a country or region (Tang and Zhang 2001; Zhu et al. 2002). Fang
and Yu (1999) and Zhang et al. (2008) respectively analyzed the water resource carrying
capacity of the Tsaidam Basin and Hebei Province through the SD model, and offered an
optimal development program for regional development. Hui et al. (2001) built a binary-
pattern SD dynamic simulation model for water resource carrying capacity and proposed
plans for water resource carrying capacity in typical water-deficient regions. Feng et al.
(2008) evaluated the water resource capacity of Yiwu by constructing a water shortage
risk assessment model. Ma (2008) built an SD model for the water resource carrying
capacity of Chongming Island to simulate different social and economic development
programs, reveal water resource supply and demand, and show water quality changes
under the leapfrog development mode of Chongming Island.
(3) Water resource planning
The SD method is often used for water resource planning and for providing a
scientific basis for the rational use of water resources. Gao and Liu (1996) built an SD
294 Z. Chen, S. Wei

model for regional water resources and drafted different development programs for the
water resource system in the Pingba District of the Hanzhong Basin. They determined an
optimal development program through a multi-objective comprehensive evaluation of
these development programs. Dai (2010) built an SD model for water resource security in
Guizhou Province, analyzed the situation in water resource security by using assessment
indices, comprehensively assessed water resource security, and offered a comprehensive
scheme for the coordinated development of the economy and the environment. Tidwell
et al. (2004, 2006) built an SD model for the water resouce planning of three counties and
districts in the northern and central regions of New Mexico, then developed an integra-
tion kit for water resource planning by combining SD with GIS after 2 years. Mirchi et al.
(2012) described the effectiveness of SD in overall water resource planning and man-
agement. They stated that SD can describe variables in different complex systems
through qualitative modeling tools when quantitative modeling is impossible. This
attribute is significantly convenient for water resource planning and management.
(4) Research on sustainability of water resources
Experts and scholars have extensively investigated water resource sustainability to
ensure the sustainable development of human society and the economy, the survival of
the environment, and the sustainable use of water resources. Shen (1995) built a
macroeconomic model in Beijing for water balance, as well as for forecasting and
analyzing the influence of the conflict between water supply and demand on economic
development and the social environment. Chen and Yan (2000) established an SD model
for the sustainable development of water resources by introducing factors for such
development and by predicting the sustainable development of water resources in
China in 2010. This SD model could obtain system characteristic parameters and
reasonable policy adjustment that could not be gained through mathematical analysis.
Xu et al. (2002) built an SD model for water resources in the Yellow River Basin and
assessed the sustainability of water resources in the area. Geng (2006) built an SD
simulation model for water strategy and investigated development strategies for water
resources. The operability of the model was confirmed by a case study of downstream
Bei River in Guangdong Province. Zhang (2011) built an SD model for the social water
cycle. Based on the operation simulation and comprehensive evaluation of water security,
an industrial development mode of water security in Zhenzhou was developed.
The SD method presents more relatively mature research and applications in water
resource security. However, a detailed analysis still needs to be conducted regarding the
causal relation between various variables to improve the accuracy of model simulation.

3.3 Research on and Application of Water Environment Security

With the rapid development of the society and the economy, water pollution has become
increasingly serious, and corresponding solutions have gradually received considerable atten-
tion. Moffatt (1991), Coyle (1993), Ford (1993), Deaton and Winebrake (1999), and
Nirmalakhandan (2002) indicated that the SD method is applicable to water environment
research on water quality management, water pollution control, water pollution early warning
systems, and water ecology.
(1) Water quality management
Water quality management is an important aspect of water environmental security. SD
is widely applied in water quality management (Rivera et al. 2006; Tangirala et al. 2003).
Elshorbagy et al. (2002) formulated a water quality management plan for compromised
Application of System Dynamics to Water Security Research 295

rivers through SD simulation of the environment. Teegavarapu et al. (2005) utilized the
SD model for assessing a water-quality management plan for a nutrition-compromised
river. They found that the fate and transport of total phosphorus in a river system can be
simulated by a conceptually simple object-oriented simulation model. Karamouz et al.
(2006a, b) solved conflicts in water quality management, investigated the pollutant
distribution characteristics of river systems, and demonstrated that waste load allocation
can significantly reduce the number and duration of periods in which river water quality
violates standards. The results provide solutions for managing watershed water quality.
(2) Water pollution control
Yu and Shang (2002) analyzed the dynamic change in urban water supply and
demand system in Changchun and proposed a control plan for solving water shortage
and pollution. Fan et al. (2009) simulated and analyzed the characteristics of the water
environment system in Harbing by the SD method and provided a plan for the sustainable
use of water resources. Chen and Liu (2010) analyzed the characteristics of the water
pollution control system in the Ashi River and established a water pollution control
planning model that is effective for analyzing and predicting water pollution control in
the Ashi River. Jin et al. (2011) built an SD model for the water environment in the
Xiaoqing River Basin and solved the issue on the relationship between social and
economic development and pollutants in the river basin. Harmonious development is
the optimal scheme. Rong et al. (2012) established a pollution control system model and
pointed out that the water environment in Xuchang City can be improved only by
comprehensively controlling industrial, domestic, and agricultural pollution. The SD
method allows the development of water pollution control plans for water environmental
issues and provides a scientific basis for pollution control.
(3) Water pollution early warning system
Han et al. (2006) built an SD early warning model for water security systems that is
integrated between social and economic systems, water resources, and water environment
systems. He found that water security deteriorated every year with social economic
development in Hainan, China. Based on the systematic analysis of uncertainties in water
security, Guo et al. (2007) established an alarm model for water security systems and
declared that this alarm model was developed according to the risk management of water
security. This model has certain practicability and guidance. By studying the evolution of
water-scarce basins, Sušnik et al. (2012) evaluated the applicability of an SD model and
analyzed water environmental problems caused by water shortage. A study on the
Kairouan aquifer system in north central Tunisia demonstrated that SD model is an
important tool for developing a comprehensive water system model. The water pollution
early warning model is also a focal point in research on water environment security.
(4) Water Ecology
Water environmental security is the harmonious development between water ecology
and humans. During water resource utilization, practices such as overexploitation,
ecological water utilization, and destruction of the ecological environment destroy the
water environment (Zeng et al. 2004). Studies on water ecology are significant to water
environmental security. According to the principle and method of SD, Li (2009)
established an SD simulation model of the water ecological capacity in the Yarkant
River. An optimal development plan was determined, and specific measures concerning
the water ecological capacity of the Yarkant River were proposed. Considering the
evaluation factors and uncertainties of water ecological capacity, Zhang et al. (2011)
quantitatively studied the evaluation of water ecological capacity of Wujin District,
Changzhou City by using the membership of fuzzy mathematics and SD and by
296 Z. Chen, S. Wei

confirming the excessive water ecological capacity in the region. Peng (2013) regarded
ecological function zoning within a drainage basin as a unit and established an SD model
for optimizing the regulation of zonal water ecological capacity. In addition, this evalu-
ation model is confirmed to be feasible through a case study of the Taizi and Liao Rivers.
Most research on water environment security has focused on water quality manage-
ment, water pollution control, and early warning systems, but disregards issues such as
water shortage and the mutual restraint between water quantity and quality. In addition,
SD is primarily applied to studying water ecological capacity and environmental flow in
water ecology. Harmful factors for the water ecological environment, such as aquatic
animals and plants as well as habitat destruction, have seldom been discussed.

3.4 Deficiencies in Research

Numerous scholars have conducted considerable research on water security and achieved signif-
icant results and progress. However, the SD method exhibits limitations in water security research.
(1) Research on large systems has yet to be improved. The water security issue involves
high, low, clean, and muddy water. High water causes flooding issues, whereas low water
leads to drought. Dirty and muddy water damages the ecological environment. A water
security system includes the subsystems of flood control, disaster mitigation, water
resource security, and water environment security. Subsystems interact with and restrain
each other. However, considering that most research based on the SD method has focused
on the issue of a single subsystem, efforts must be made to improve research on large
systems that integrate multiple factors.
(2) Little consideration has been given to drastic environmental changes. The rapid devel-
opment of society and the economy, as well as the growing population, has drastically
changed the social environment and water security. No in-depth research has investigated
the interaction among water security, society, and the economy through the SD method.
Climate change and intensified human activities significantly affect the environment.
Water security under a changing environment becomes a new direction for applying SD.
(3) Uncertainties in water security encompass a wide scope. As a research method or means,
SD adjusts algorithms within the model according to the demands of managers. The
dynamics and randomness of water security systems determine the uncertainty of their
internal mechanism, and thus, limit the application of water security studies and SD to a
certain extent. Relative theories of water security and perfect applications of SD in water
security should be advanced in the future.
(4) Lack of integration with other means constraints the application of SD model. SD
method is only starting from the system to do qualitative analysis and quantitative
calculation about water security related problems. Integrating SD method with other
methods such as GIS, RS, hydrology and water quality model can lead to deeper study
about water security from the perspective of time and space. Besides, the integration of
methods can be better applied in macrosystem.

4 Conclusions

Water security research is a significant issue. A water security system is a large system with a
complex feedback mechanism. The SD method can combine qualitative and quantitative
Application of System Dynamics to Water Security Research 297

methods; comprehensively analyze, simulate, and manage high-order nonlinear issues; and
grasp various feedback relationships for the system. The SD method provides an appropriate
and effective method for solving the water security issue.
This study collected literature on the application of the SD method in water security over
the past 20 years. It verified research on water security systems and discussed the progress of
research on flood control, disaster mitigation, water resource security, and water environment
security. Flood control and disaster mitigation research emphasizes flood management and
forecasting. A large number of studies have investigated water resource management, plan-
ning, carrying capacity, and sustainability. Water environment security focuses on water
quality management, water pollution control, early warning systems, and water ecology. The
study of water ecological security has primarily focused on the bearing capacity of water
ecology. The SD method can properly solve the complicated relations in the water security
system. However, this method still has deficiencies in the following aspects: research on large
systems; the influence of social environment changes; uncertainties in water security; and the
methods, means, and influence of natural environment changes on water security.

Acknowledgments This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51379225
and 50909107) and Young Teachers Cultivation Project from Sun Yat-sen University (Grant No. 2011370003161400).

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