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A fully owned subsidiary of

Square Pharmaceuticals Limited is the largest


pharmaceuticals company in Bangladesh

EQUITY VALUATION
securing 17.73% market shares. The company
manufactures and distributes pharmaceuticals
drugs, medicine, basic chemicals, animal health
REPORT product, agrovet and pesticide products.

(Initiation Coverage)

We initiated a valuation based on Discounted Cash Flow method and Relative Valuation method while assuming next
5-Years’ CAGR of revenue will be 15.02%. Historical 5-Years’ CAGR of revenue was 15.25%. Currently, SQURPHARMA
is traded at BDT 297.2. In our valuation, the target price based on DCF and Relative Valuation is determined at BDT
346.85 per share which represents 16.71% upside from current market price.
Market Leader 27
17.7% Blockbuster Drugs
Market Share

Current Price 297.2 16.7%

Target Price 346.8


Expected Return from
the Blue Chip Stock

Consistent
Cash Dividend: 15.25% 25.00%

Mix of Historical 5 Years Revenue CAGR Historical 5 Years NPAT CAGR

Cash and Stock


Stock 15.02% 15.67%

Projected 5 Years Revenue CAGR Projected 5 Years NPAT CAGR


Square Pharmaceuticals Limited
DSE: SQURPHARMA, BLOOMBERG: SQUARE:BD Analyst:
Target Price: BDT 346.8, Current Price: BDT 297.2 MD. Mosavvir Al Ashick
Rating: Overweight research@eblsecurities.com
Valuation date: 16th November , 2017
Company Fundamentals Square Pharmaceuticals Limited is the largest pharmaceuticals
Sector Pharmaceuticals & Chemicals company in Bangladesh securing 17.73% market shares. The
Potential Upside 16.7% company manufactures and distributes pharmaceuticals drugs,
Market Cap (BDT mn) 201,462.0 medicine, basic chemicals, animal health product, agrovet and
Market weight 1.1% pesticide products.
Paid-up Capital (BDT mn) 6,859.5 The Pharmaceuticals industry of Bangladesh is expected to grow at
3 Months Return 5.43% a CAGR of 15% over the next five years due to steady economic
Free-float Shares (in mn) 449.7 growth, population growth, growth of income level of people and
increased health awareness. Being the leader in the growing
3 Months Avg. Daily Turnover (BDT mn) 135.1
Pharmaceuticals industry; Square Pharmaceuticals Limited is
Current P/E 19.2 expected to grow at the same pace with the industry.
Current P/NAV 4.2 Square Pharma holds 27 blockbuster drugs among top 100 drugs
52-week price range (BDT) 242.5-319.8 sold in Bangladesh. These 27 drugs constitutes 7.11% of total market
share. It is expected that these blockbuster drugs will continue to
2014-15 2015-16 2017-18
2016-17 possess a large market share in the future.
Restated Restated Expected Square Pharma holds 58.78% market share in the top two
Financial Information (BDT mn) therapeutic segments of Pharma Market that accounts for 52.77%
Net Sales 27,532 33,073 38,455 45,377 of total Pharma Market in Bangladesh. The company also maintains
top position in other therapeutic segments. Dominance on the
Gross Profit 12,272 15,991 18,593 22,235
market share of top therapeutic segment will help the company to
EBITDA 9,616 11,277 14,251 16,866 stay as market leader for a long time in the future.
Operating Profit 7,617 10,796 12,318 14,830 Square Pharma maintains huge capital expenditure in every year
Profit After Tax 5,583 8,288 9,398 11,383 which ensures continuous growth for the company. Currently, two
Total Assets 36,640 44,303 53,481 61,843 manufacturing units are under construction in Dhaka site. The units
Total Debt 312 3 - 480 are expected to be completed by the end of 2019. In addition, the
company has announced that they will spend additional BDT 2,002
Total Equity 32,914 40,557 49,280 56,655
million for purchasing land and machinery. It is anticipated that new
Retained Earnings 24,960 31,612 39,841 46,821 units and machineries will help to generate more revenue in the
Cash 4,524 8,523 14,203 16,163 future.
Dividend (C/B)% 30/12.5 40/10* 35/7.5 - Expected 5 years revenue and NPAT CAGR are 15.02% and 15.67%
Margin respectively. The company achieved a 5 years revenue CAGR of
15.25% and NPAT CAGR of 25%.
Gross Profit 44.6% 48.4% 48.4% 49.0%
Square Pharmaceuticals Limited announced that they will set up a
EBITDA 34.9% 34.1% 37.1% 37.2% subsidiary in Kenya with an investment of USD 20 million. With the
Operating Profit 27.7% 32.6% 32.0% 32.7% establishment of that subsidiary, revenue of the company is likely to
Pretax Profit 28.5% 34.6% 34.0% 34.9% increase by BDT 1,920 million in the first year of operations.
Square Pharma has the highest Operating Profit margin (32.7%), Net
Net Profit 20.3% 25.1% 24.4% 25.1%
profit margin (21.1%) in the Pharma Industry of Bangladesh. It’s ROA
Growth and ROE also exceeds its close competitors. ROA and ROE of
Sales 13.9% 20.1% 16.3% 18.0% SQURPHARMA are 19.7% and 21.45% respectively where the average
Gross Profit 15.7% 30.3% 16.3% 19.6% ROA and ROE of its close competitors are 8.2% and 12.6%
respectively.
Operating Profit 21.2% 41.7% 14.1% 20.4%
Net Profit 29.7% 48.5% 13.4% 21.1% We initiated a valuation based on Discounted Cash Flow
Profitability method and Relative Valuation method while assuming next 5-
ROA 17.3% 20.5% 19.2% 19.7% Years’ CAGR of revenue will be 15.02%. Historical 5-Years’ CAGR
of revenue was 15.25%. Currently, SQURPHARMA is traded at
ROE 22.0% 24.2% 23.7% 21.5%
BDT 297.2. In our valuation, the target price based on DCF and
Payout Ratio 32.1% 30.8% 22.6% 36.2% Relative Valuation is determined at BDT 346.85 per share which
PEG ratio 1.1% 2.5% 0.7% 1.2% represents 16.71% upside from current market price.
Leverage
Debt Ratio 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Price Volume Movement of SQURPHARMA
Debt-Equity 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 330 1,600,000

Altman Z-Score 28.2 28.0 34.5 29.8 1,400,000


310
1,200,000
Valuation
290 1,000,000
EPS (BDT) 9.3 13.0 15.5 16.6
800,000
NAVPS (BDT) 48.0 59.1 71.8 82.6
270 600,000
P/E 27.2 19.3 19.4 18.1
400,000
P/NAV (x) 5.3 4.2 4.2 3.6 250
200,000
EV/EBITDA 16.0 13.1 15.4 13.7
230 0
EV/Sales 5.6 4.5 5.7 5.1
1-Jan-15 1-Jul-15 1-Jan-16 1-Jul-16 1-Jan-17 1-Jul-17

2014-15 & 2015-16 information has been restated because of the change in accounting period
*For 18 month Period April 2015- March 2016
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
Bangladesh Pharmaceutical Industry Overview
According to Bangladesh
Pharmaceuticals Market Size of Pharmaceuticals Product of Bangladesh and
Association of Pharmaceutical
industry of Bangladesh Growth (amount in BDT million)
Industries (BAPI), approximately 200 ,000

has experienced a CAGR 207 licensed pharmaceutical 180 ,000

of 15% from 2012 to manufacturers are operating in 160 ,000 CAGR 15%
2017, five years period; Bangladesh and about 150 are 140 ,000

functional. These manufacturing 120 ,000

Expected five years companies meet around 98% of 100 ,000

CAGR is 15% local demand. Specialized 80,0 00

products like vaccines, anti-


156,401 187,556
60,0 00

cancer products and hormone 93,904 97,589 105,864 119,548


40,0 00

drugs are imported to meet the 20,0 00

remaining 2% of the demand.


80% of the drugs produced in
-

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


Bangladesh are generic drugs,
rest 20% are patented drugs. Source: IMS Health Report Q2
According to Director General of
Drug Administration (DGDA), the industry has 3,526 generics of allopathic medicine, 2,313 registered
Homeopathic drugs, 5,703 registered Unani Drugs and 3,877 Ayurvedic registered drugs.
Domestic market of Pharmaceutical products in Bangladesh has shown an increasing trend over the past
few years and the market size is BDT 187,566 million as on 2017 Q2 (Source: IMS Health Report Q2).
According to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, the industry has contributed 0.90% to the GDP.
Pharmaceutical industry of Bangladesh is largely protected from external competition, as there is a
restriction regarding import of similar drugs that is manufactured locally.
Exports of Pharmaceuticals Product
Exports of
According to Bangladesh
Pharmaceuticals Export Revenue of Pharmaceuticals Product of Bangladesh
Association of Pharmaceutical
products of Bangladesh and Growth (amount in US dollar million)
Industries (BAPI), approximately Export Growth
experienced a CAGR of 1,200 pharmaceutical products
$12 0.00 30. 00%

13% from 2010-11 to received registration for export $10 0.00 25. 00%

2015-16, five years over the last two years and are 23.98%

period being exported to 113 countries $80 .00 20. 00%

including USA, UK, Australia and


15.75%
Africa. According to Export $60 .00

4.91%
13.04% 15. 00%

Promotion Bureau (EPB), in the


9.39%
$40 .00 10. 00%

fiscal year 2016-17, Bangladesh 8.92%


7.55%
has exported pharmaceutical $20 .00 5.0 0%

products worth USD 89.17 million $48.25 $59.82 $69.24 $72.64 $82.11 $89.82 $96.60
as against USD 82.11 million in $0. 00 0.0 0%

2015-16. From July to October 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18*

2017-18, Bangladesh exported Source: Bangladesh Export Promotion Bureau


USD 32.1 million worth of *2017-18, 4 month data annualized
Pharmaceuticals Product. The 
Government of Bangladesh has set up an export target of USD 100 million of Pharmaceuticals products for
2017-18 (Source: Financial Express). Over the last 7 years, export revenue CAGR was 15%.
However, export sales only contributed 5.97% of pharmaceuticals market in 2015-16. Hence, the
contribution of export sales in pharmaceuticals industry is low.
Pharmaceuticals Company of Bangladesh can only sell different medicine to other country when they get
approval of the particular medicine from the drug authority of that particular country. Approval from
developed countries signifies that the local medicine has international standard which helps them to build
a strong position in local market.

Population growth, Opportunities in Global Generic Drugs Market for Bangladesh


increase in income level Pharmaceuticals industry of Bangladesh has tremendous opportunity to grow in the future. Bangladesh
of people, increase in offers significant manufacturing cost advantages due to the lower cost of labor. Major generic hubs- India
and China are losing cost advantages. Cost of labor in Bangladesh is 3 to 4 times lower than that of China
medical facilities and
and India. Medicine price in Bangladesh is currently among the lowest in the world. As a result, Bangladesh
health awareness are
has opportunity to export pharmaceuticals products more than India and China. (Source: Bangladesh
the key growth drivers of Association of Pharmaceuticals Industry). At the same time, major producer of pharmaceuticals raw
Pharmaceuticals materials India and China won’t be able to produce the patented raw material due to the restrictions from
industry of Bangladesh World Health Organization (WTO). Thus, Bangladesh can export to foreign countries easily.

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Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
Key drivers for growth of Pharmaceuticals company in Bangladesh:
1. Economic Growth of the country: In the year 2016-17, Bangladesh has achieved GDP growth rate of
7.24% (Source: Bangladesh Bank). World Bank predicts that Bangladesh will earn GDP growth rate of 6.4%
to 6.8% for the year 2017 and 2018. Bangladesh has entered the socio-economic classification of Lower
Middle Income Group. It is targeted that Bangladesh will become higher Middle Income Group and Higher
Income Group by 2021 and 2041 respectively. With the GDP growth, per capita income is likely to rise
which will lead to higher health care expenditure by both individual and government.
2. Population growth rate: Bangladesh is one of the highly populated country in the world with 168 million
people. According to World Bank report 2016, population growth rate of Bangladesh is 1.1% annually. This
contributes to the growth of Pharmaceuticals sector of Bangladesh.
2. Growing Income level of people: Average income level of people of Bangladesh has increased. According
to BBS provisional estimation, the per capita income rose to $1,602 in the 2016-17 fiscal year which was
$1,465 in the 2015-16 financial year. Average income grew by 9.4% from 2015-16 to 2016-17. Thus, people
have more money to allocate for medical expenditure.
3. Increase in modern healthcare facilities: Medical and Pharmaceutical facilities in Bangladesh is adopting
modern technology. This will Market Share of Top 20 Companies
largely contribute to the growth of 2017 Q2 2016 Q2 Change (YoY)
Pharmaceuticals industry of 1 Square 17.73% 18.83% -1.10
Bangladesh. 2 Incepta pharma 10.21% 10.18%  0.03
4. Health awareness of mass 3 Beximco 8.39% 8.52% -0.13
people: People of Bangladesh is 4 Opsonin pharma 5.54% 5.55% -0.01
becoming aware of health day by
5 Renata 4.97% 5.03% -0.06
day. Increased awareness of
health and high life expectancy 6 Healthcare pharma 4.57% 3.78%  0.79
will lead to the growth of 7 A.C.I. 4.43% 4.31%  0.12
pharmaceutical sector of 8 Aristopharma 4.38% 4.41% -0.03
Bangladesh. 9 Eskayef 4.36% 4.50% -0.14
Market Position of Different 10 Acme 3.91% 3.90%  0.01
Top 20 Companies
Companies 11 General 2.42% 2.22%  0.20
dominate the Pharmaceutical companies in
pharmaceuticals market;
12 Radiant pharma 2.26% 2.02%  0.24
Bangladesh usually provide
holds about 86.33% of branded-generic products as a 13 Drug international 2.06% 2.21% -0.15
pharma market share result of which established brands 14 Sanofi bangladesh 2.04% 1.98%  0.06
are able to charge premium price 15 Popular pharma 1.90% 1.88%  0.02
for its products. According to IMS 16 Unimed &unihealth 1.82% 1.61%  0.21
Health Care Report Q2, 2017 top 17 Novo nordisk 1.77% 1.76%  0.01
10 companies hold 68.49% of
Pharma market share. Companies 18 Sun pharma 1.22% 0.96%  0.26
that secured position ranging 19 Novartis 1.22% 1.26% -0.04
from 11th to 20th on the basis of 20 Ibn sina 1.13% 1.06%  0.07
their relative market shares hold Source: IMS Health Report 2017 Q2 and 2016 Q2
only 17.84% market share.
Summing up, top 20 companies hold 86.33% market share, leaving 13.67% market share to other existing
companies. It is to be noted that top 20 companies held 85.97% market share in 2016 Q2. Aggregate market
share of top 20 companies has increased (Source: IMS Health Report 2017 Q2).
The Pharmaceuticals market is concentrated among few local companies only and entry barrier is higher
due to large capital investment and legislative bindings. Square Pharmaceutical is the market leader having
17.73% market share followed by Incepta, Beximco, Opsonin and Renata. The table above shows the
current market share hold by leading pharmaceutical companies as per IMS health report Q2, 2017 and
comparison against 2016 Q2.

An API Park is going to API Park: Pharmaceuticals industry of Bangladesh is dependent on imported raw materials for
manufacturing drugs. According to International Trade Administration, about 80% of raw material is
established
establish in
in Munshigonj
imported. Main suppliers of raw materials are India and China. Bangladesh also imports API from Germany,
Munshigonj
to reduce theto reduce France & USA. Bangladesh Small and Cottage Industries Corporation (BSCIC) has begun the work of setting
the dependency
dependency of
of imported up Active Pharmaceuticals Ingredients (API) Park on 200 acres of land at Baushia, Gazaria, Munshigonj in
raw
imported
materials
raw materials 2008. The park is being built under the public-private initiative with the Bangladesh Association of
Pharmaceutical Industries (BAPI). After revising two times, the estimated cost of the project was BDT
3,318.60 million. According to the director of the project, the cost of the project is likely to increase above
9% of original estimation. There will be about 42 number of plots in the API Park. The cost of each acre of
land is estimated at BDT 31 million. The Companies will get 10 years time to pay for the plot. There are 30
plots in “A” category (3.27 acre each), 5 plots in “B” category (2.35 acre each), and 7 plots in “S” category

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Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
(different size). 32 member companies of BAPI has applied for 57 plots. All infrastructural facilities
including Common Effluent Treatment Plant (CETP) and Waste Dumping Yard will be available in this
project. The cost of the Common Effluent Treatment Plant (CETP) is estimated at BDT 800 million, to be
established by the companies. With the completion of API Park, Bangladesh will be able to decrease the
cost of locally manufactured drugs. API can also be exported to other countries. Currently, Global API
market stands at USD 135 billion. It is to be noted that major raw materials supplying countries such as
India and China are not legally able to produce the patented raw materials due to the WTO restriction. At
the same time, The Government of Bangladesh has declared Pharmaceuticals sector as thrust sectors. This
gives immense opportunity for Bangladesh to export API to these countries.
It has been announced that Square Pharmaceuticals Limited and Beximco Pharmaceuticals Limited have
been approved three plots in the API Park.

As a least developed Trade Related Aspect of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS): Being a least-developed country, Bangladesh
has been exempted from the obligations to implement patents and data protection for pharmaceutical
country, Bangladesh is
products until January 2033 by the World Trade Organization. As a result, Bangladesh is allowed to produce
enjoying TRIPS waiver up to any patented medicines without taking prior permission from innovator. Also, Bangladesh has the
2033 opportunity to export to any country if the medicine is not under patent.

Competitive Structure of the Pharmaceuticals Industry


Threat of new entrants of the industry: Low
A company that wishes to enter into a pharmaceuticals industry requires huge capital expenditures and
regulatory permission from the drug authority; which creates a significant barrier to enter in the industry.
Furthermore, customer’s loyalty to the drugs of established brands, access to distribution channel creates
further barrier. These cause low threat of new entrants in the industry.
Threat of substitute product: High
The retail consumers of pharmaceutical products often switch from one brand to another. There are many
substitute brands of single medicine. If consumer does not find one brand, he will switch to another brand
very quickly. Thus, the threat of substitute product is very high.
The bargaining power of buyers: Low
The government strictly maintains the retail price of lifesaving drugs. Pharma companies are free to set up
the price of other drugs. Furthermore, the buyers are not concentrated and thus possess low bargaining
power.
The bargaining power of the supplier: High
Currently, Bangladesh imports 98% of raw materials of pharmaceuticals industry; mainly from China and
India. Bangladesh can also import API from European supplier. But, it will incur more cost if Bangladesh
imports raw material from European supplier. Concentration of the supplier and high switching cost create
high bargaining power of the supplier.
Rivalry among the exiting competitors: High
The pharmaceuticals market is highly concentrated. Top 20 players dominate the major portion of the
market. Every company has the same medicine in different brands. The companies are competing with
each other fiercely in order to grab market share.

Square Pharmaceuticals Limited


Square Pharmaceuticals Limited is the
Number of Product in each product catagory of
manufacturer, marketer and distributor of SQURPHAMA
pharmaceuticals drugs, medicines, basic chemicals,
animal health products, agro vet and pesticide Pharmaceuticals 655

products. The products of Square Pharmaceuticals


Limited are available in different forms like tablet, Agrovet 63
capsule, injection, infusion, dry powder, ENT
preparation (Ear, Nose and Throat medicine), Pesticides 25
Opthal preparation, suppository, insulin, pellet etc.
Square Pharmaceuticals Limited is renowned for its Pellet 14
world class pharmaceuticals products. The
company was founded in 1958. Late Samson H
Basic Chemicals 8
Chowdhury and his three friends Dr. Kazi Harunur
Rashid, Dr. PK Shaha and Radha Binod Roy started
the company with the name Square Pharmaceuticals Works with an investment of Rs. 17,000. The company
secured permission to manufacture products on behalf of Johnson & Johnson, Belgium in 1972 with their
prescribed formula. After securing a contact with Johnson & Johnson, Square Pharma produced only
Johnson and Johnson brand products. However, the contract became void in 1982 when the government

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Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
imposed Pharmaceuticals Policy for the country. After the announcement of drug policy 1986, which
banned the foreign pharmaceuticals company to operate in Bangladesh without partners from Bangladesh,
foreign Pharmaceuticals companies lost their market shares. Capitalizing this favorable government policy,
Square Pharmaceuticals Limited became market leader in 1987 among all the national and multinational
companies. Since then Square Pharmaceuticals Limited stayed as the market leader for the last 30 years.
Square Pharmaceuticals Limited was the first ever company of Bangladesh to get UK MHRA (United
Kingdom Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency) approval in 2007. Currently, the company
has an agreement with M/S NAAFCO Pharma Limited and M/S Sharif Pharmaceuticals Limited for contract
manufacturing of some products of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited to meet increased demand of existing
products as well as to introduce new products.
Founder: Late Samson H Chowdhury
Establishment: In 1958 as a Partnership Enterprise with the name “Square Pharmaceuticals Works”
Commencement of Manufacturing Operations: In 1959
Incorporation: In November 10, 1964 as a Private Limited Company
Conversion into Public Limited Company: In 1991
Listing: Dhaka Stock Exchange & Chittagong Stock Exchange: In December, 1995
Credit Rating: Long Term: AAA, Short Term: ST-1, Outlook: Stable (By CRISL)

Key personnel:
Chairman Mr. Samuel S Chowdhury
Vice-chairman Mr. Ratna Patra
Managing Director Mr. Tapan Chowdhury
Director Mr. Anjan Chowdhury
Director Mr. Kaji Iqbal Harun
Independent Director Mr. M Sekandar Ali
Independent Director Mrs. Nihad Kabir
Company secretary Mr. Khandaker Habibuzzaman
Shareholding Structure (Sept 2017)
Sponsors Institution Foreign Public Shareholding Pattern

36.11% Sept 30 2013 Sept 30 2014 Sept 30 2015 Sept 30 2016 Sept 30 2017
Sponsors 54.21% 54.21% 53.52% 36.34% 34.43%
Institution 27.18% 10.34% 10.85% 11.88% 10.13%
34.43% Foreign 9.65% 15.05% 15.85% 15.71% 19.33%
Public 8.96% 20.40% 19.78% 36.07% 36.11%

19.33% 10.13% Composition of Shareholding Structure among major stakeholders

Name Designation Number of Shareholding (in % Holdings


Million)
Mr. Samel S Chowdhury Chairman 48.4 7.06%
Mr. Tapan Chowdhury Managing Director 49.5 7.22%
Mr. Kazi Iqbal Harun Director 28.5 4.16%
Mr. Ratna Patra Vice Chairman 46.4 6.77%
Mr Anjan Chowdhury Director 50.1 7.31%
Total 223.1 32.52%

Positions of Chowdhury Family members in Square Pharmaceuticals Limited

Late Mr. Samson H


Chowdhury
Founder of Square
Pharmaceuticals
Limited

Samuel S
Ratna Patra Tapan Chowdhury Anjan Chowdhury
Chowdhury
Chairman, Square Vice Chairman, Square Managing Director, Director, Square
Pharmaceuticals Pharmaceuticals Square Pharmaceuticals Pharmaceuticals
Limited Limited Limited Limited

Chowdhury Family members hold 28.36% shares of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited as on June 30, 2016

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Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
Blockbuster drugs: Top 20 brands of Square Pharma contribute 46.38% of total revenue where top 10
brands contribute 32.19% of total sales. Square Pharmaceuticals Limited possesses 27 blockbuster drugs
among the top 100 brands sold in Bangladesh which constitutes 9.41% market share. In Bangladesh top 20
brand constitutes 14.07% of total market among which more than half of this portion belongs to Square
Pharmaceuticals Limited. Below table gives the list of 15 blockbuster drugs among the top 50 brands sold
in Bangladesh that constitutes 7.11% of total market.
Drugs Brand Value (BDT million) Market Share
Seclo 3,766.56 2.01%
CEF-3 1,546.20 0.82%
Zimax 842.20 0.45%
Neotack 778.78 0.42%
Neuro-b 709.57 0.38%
Comet 666.60 0.36%
Calbo-d 635.12 0.34%
Ciprocin 619.95 0.33%
Nexum 574.72 0.31%
Angilock 573.29 0.31%
Alatrol 568.35 0.30%
Entacyd plus 539.02 0.29%
Ceevit 519.82 0.28%
Ace 496.13 0.26%
Ceftron 473.29 0.25%
Total 13,309.6 7.11%
Source: IMS Health Report 2017 Q2
Product Quality: Square Pharmaceuticals Limited produces product by following GMP (Good
manufacturing practice) standards of World Health Organization. The company also maintains strict
surveillance to withdraw expired product from the market.
Foreign Accreditation: UK-MHRA (United Kingdom Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory
Agency), TGA (Therapeutic Goods Administration)-Australia, EMEA (European Medicines Evaluation
Agency), US-FDA (US Food and Drug Administration)

Therapeutic Group Wise market Share


A drug class is a set of medications that has similar chemical structures, the same mechanism of action, a
related mode of action, and/or are used to treat the same disease. Market Share, value, growth and ranks
of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited according to therapeutic class is given in the following chart.
Theraputic Class Rank* Value (BDT million) Share (%)
Alimentary t. & metabolism 1st 68,270.3 36.40
Systemic anti-infectives 1st 6,897.3 22.47
Nervous system 2nd 2,591.3 12.82
Cardiovascular system 3rd 2,734.1 15.10
Respiratory system 1st 3,245.9 19.53
Musculo-skeletal system 1st 1,146.0 11.67
G.u.system & sex hormones 3rd 661.5 11.78
Dermatologicals 1st 1,258.0 26.39
Blood & blood forming organs 2nd 593.9 14.09
Sensory organs 6th 180.7 6.41
Systemic hormones 4th 277.2 11.12
Hospital solutions 16.8 1.17
Parasitology 1st 396.8 26.92
Antineoplast & immunomodul 6th 33.6 5.96
Various** 5th 43.9 10.31
Diagnostic agents 25.52 0.01
Source: IMS 2017, Q2
* The ranking is based on top seller in that particular therapeutic class
**In various therapeutic class, Square Herbal & Nutraceuticals holds 5th position

6
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
In the Pharmaceuticals
industry of Bangladesh, Pharma Market Growth vs Square Pharma Growth
Alimentary T. & Metabolism 30% Pharma Market Growth Rate Square Pharma Growth Rate
and Systemic Anti-Infectives
have grabbed almost 58.87% 25%
of total market. Of these two
20%
therapeutic group Square
Pharmaceuticals Limited 15%
grabbed 52.77% of market
shares. Possessing a large 10%
market share in the top two
5%
therapeutic group makes
Square Pharmaceuticals 0%
Limited market leader in the 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Pharmaceuticals Industry of Source: Annual Report of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited
Bangladesh. Apart from
those Therapeutic group, Square Pharmaceuticals Limited holds strong market share in other therapeutic
group too. Only in parasitology and diagnostic agents Square Pharmaceuticals Limited could not secure top
six position.

Production Units: Square Pharmaceuticals Limited has 13 manufacturing unit.


1. Dhaka Unit: This unit is located at Kaliakoir in Dhaka, about 50 kilometre in the north of capital city..
All the facilities in this unit have been developed by meeting the requirement of cGMP CFR 21 (current
Good manufacturing Practice). This plant got approval from UNICEF and MHRA-UK. In the year 2012,
Dhaka unit and Square Cephalosporin Limited got “Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA)” of
Australia approval (Cephalosporin unit was a subsidiary company of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited
in 2012). This plant has started operation from 2002. Currently, Square Pharmaceuticals Limited is
constructing two units in Dhaka plant which is expected to be operational by 2019. There are six
manufacturing units in this location which is engaged in producing formulation product. Those units
are as follows.
a) General Production Unit: General Production Unit is used for bulk production of tablet & capsule and
their packaging. This unit started operation in 2002.
b) Cephalosporin Unit: Cephalosporin Unit is used for producing cephalosporin antibiotics. This unit
started operation in November, 2006. Cephalosporin Unit complies with the requirement of
international GMP standards like EMEA (European Medicines Evaluation Agency), UK MHRA (UK
Medical and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency), TGA (Therapeutic Goods Administration,
Australia) and US FDA (US Food and Drug Administration).
c) Small Volume Parenteral & Ophthalmic Unit: Small volume parenteral & ophthalmic unit was built in
accordance with US FDA and UK MHRA cGMP specifications. This facility is built by Telstar S.A. of
Spain a world renowned pharmaceutical manufacturing facility expert and the machineries are
designed and manufactured by Weiler Engineering, USA.
d) Insulin Unit: Insulin unit is used for producing insulin solution and suspension. The infrastructure and
major production machineries was provided by Tpro, a well-known Spanish company. For filling insulin
product, IMA-MAC vial washing, filling machine was brought from Italy.
e) Metered Dose Inhaler Unit: Meter dose Inhaler unit is engaged in producing a specific types of device
that delivers specified amount of drugs to lungs. This unit was started in September 2008.

2. Pabna Unit: Pabna Plant is the first manufacturing facility of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited and
started operation in 1958. This plant complies with WHO – cGMP (current Good manufacturing
Practice) requirement. The production facilities in this units are:
a) Hormone & Steroid Unit: Manufacturing procedures including Tablet Compression, Tablet Coating,
Tablet Blistering, Personal Cleaning, and Dispensing Booth & Automatic Granulation for producing
hormones & steroids products are completed in Hormone & Steroid unit.
b) Liquid Unit: This unit produces syrup, suspension, dry-powder, cream gel. This unit started its
operation from 2010.
c) Penicillin Unit: According to cGMP requirement, Pharmaceuticals companies need to set up penicillin
unit separately to avoid cross contamination of other drugs with penicillin. To meet up the
requirement with cGMP, Square Pharmaceuticals Limited has set up penicillin unit separately.
d) Agro Vet Division: Agro vet Division produces 73 types of poultry and livestock products. This division
has started operation in 1998. The company produces different therapeutic classes comprising
antibacterial agents, anthelmintics, NSAIDs, antihistamine, antidiarrhoea, vitamins, digestive
stimulants etc. in this unit.
e) Pesticide Unit: The main operations include repacking, selling and marketing of insecticides,
fungicides, and herbicides of Chimac-Agriphar s.a., Belgium and FMC Corporation, USA. This unit also
produces formulation of mosquito control aerosol.
7
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
f) Pharmaceutical Bulk Manufacturing Plant (API Unit): Pharmaceutical bulk manufacturing unit is one
of the largest pharmaceuticals bulk producing units of the country. This unit was established in 1992
and started operation in 1995. The company used the product of this unit for own consumption until
1996. From 1997, the company marketed API products to many pharmaceutical companies including
(but not limited to) Aventis Pharma, Novartis Bangladesh Ltd., ACI Ltd., Beximco Pharmaceuticals Ltd.,
The Acme Laboratories Ltd, Eskayef Bangladesh Ltd., Opsonin Chemicals, Renata Ltd., Essential Drugs
Co. Ltd.
3. Square Formulations Limited: The factory of Square Formulation Unit is located at Momin Nagar,
Gorai, Mirzapur, Tangail. This unit started operations in 2014. The company has the capacity to
produce 8,000 million tablet and 2,000 million capsule annually.
4. Pet bottle unit: PET bottle unit has the production capacity to produce 5,000 piece per hour. It can
run 24 hours continuously in a day. This unit started its operation from 2004. The whole process of
producing pet bottle is completed in this division.

Production Capacity
Square Pharmaceuticals Limited produces medicine in different forms. Those forms include tablet, capsule,
liquid etc. In the year 2015-16, production capacity of tablet was 11,279 million pieces where actual
production was 6,647 million pieces. Capacity utilization rate was 59%. The production capacity of tablet
has increased 1.54 times from 2011-12 to 2015-16, 5 years period. Capacity utilization rate has increased
by 5.38% over the five years period. Average capacity utilization rate was 58.2% over the last five years.
Square Pharmaceuticals Limited always maintains buffer production capacity. Competitive structure of the
industry forces the company to maintain buffer capacity so that they can meet up any unforeseen demand
promptly which will help them to remain market leader.
Tablet (in million unit)
Production Capacity Actual Production Capacity Utilization

12, 000

66% 70%

65%
10, 000

59%
8,0 00 58%
56% 60%
6,0 00

52% 55%
4,0 00

4,090 4,862 6,087 5,446 6,647


2,0 00
50%
7,345 7,348 10,495 10,546 11,279
0

45%
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

From 2011-12 to 2015-16 period, the company had the highest capacity utilization in the year 2011-12.
Higher demand for capsule forces the company to increase the capacity. Current capacity of capsule stands
at 2,211 million piece where capacity utilization rate is 55%.

Capsule (in million unit)

Production Capacity Actual Production Capacity Utilization

2,5 00 125% 140 %

102% 120 %

2,0 00

100 %

63%
1,5 00 54% 55% 80%

60%

1,0 00

1,170 1,177 1,194 1,403 1,213 40%

500

20%

933 1,151 2,220 2,228 2,211


0 0%

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

It is important for the Pharmaceuticals Company of Bangladesh to ensure uninterrupted production and
supply of the pharmaceutical products. Failure to meet the demand may result in switch to substitute
products by the customer, thus will result in the reduction of market share of the company. The production
capacity utilization of capsule unit has decreased over the time as company increased its capacity to
maintain a buffer capacity of production. These steps ensure that the company can quickly response to any

8
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
unforeseen demand. Improved production capacity and a slight increased demand caused decrease of
capacity utilization.
Distribution network: Square Pharmaceuticals Limited has a large distribution network to ensure
uninterrupted supply of pharmaceutical products. The company has 22 depot in 22 different districts of
the country.
Export: Square Pharmaceuticals Limited
Export Sales of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited (Solo)-
pioneered the export of medicine from (Amonunt in BDT million)
Bangladesh in 1987. The company exports 1,60 0 60. 00%

Export Growth
pharmaceuticals finished products since 1,40 0

50. 00%

1995. The company currently exports 1,20 0


48.34%
antibiotics and other pharmaceuticals 34.46% 40. 00%

1,00 0

product to 39 countries including 3 countries 800

5.92% 23.05%
30. 00%

in Europe, 19 countries in Asia, 11 countries


in Africa, 3 countries in Central and South
600

21.75% 20. 00%

America. Square Pharmaceuticals Limited 400

10. 00%

offers more than 300 off patent and on 200

539 799 846 1,138 1,400


patent molecules in different dosage forms. - 0.0 0%

The company exports pharmaceuticals 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 (15
Month)
product in the market of Europe, Australia
and USA and finished formulations to ASEAN,
SAARC region.

Subsidiary & Associate Companies of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited

Square
Pharmaceuticals
Limited
1 Subsidiay & 3 Associates

Square Formulations Square Textile Square Fashions Square Hospital


Limited Limited Limited Limited
99.5% ownership to 46.36% ownership to 48.63% ownership to 49.94% ownership to
SQURPHARMA SQURPHARMA SQURPHARMA SQURPHARMA

Square Texcom
Square Yarns Limited
Limited
99.48% ownership to 95% ownership to
SQUARETEX SQUARETEX

Subsidiary Company
Square Formulations Limited: Square Formulations Limited was incorporated in 21st November, 2011. The
company started its commercial operation in 1st April, 2014. Square Formulations Limited is involved in
producing formulation products. Square Pharmaceuticals Limited has announced on 22nd October 2017
that Square Formulations Limited will merge with Square Pharmaceuticals Limited. Authorized Capital of
the company is BDT 500 million and Paid up capital is BDT 100 million. Currently, Square Pharmaceuticals
Limited holds 99.5% share of Square Formulations Limited. ROA of the company stands at 7.5% in 2016
Associates:
1. Square Textile Limited: Square Revenue, NPAT and NPAT margin of Square Textile Limited (Amount in
BDT million)
group enters into the textile
10,0 00 14. 00%

business with the establishment of


9,00 0

11.70%
12. 00%

Square Textile Limited in 1997. The 9.93%


8,00 0

10.25%
10. 00%

company involves in the business


7,00 0

8.77%
6,00 0 6.65% 9.01%
of manufacturing cotton ring spun 9,391 8,742 8,164 8,109 8,447
8.0 0%

5,00 0

6,096
yarn for hosiery. Square Textile 4,00 0
6.0 0%

supplies its product to the export 3,00 0


4.0 0%

oriented readymade garments 2,00 0

industry. The company started 713 824 581 837 805 761 2.0 0%

1,00 0

with a single unit in 1997 with an - 0.0 0%

establishment cost of BDT 1,600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-16
million. Square Textile Limited *2015-16 18 month data has been annualized

9
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
subsequently established its second unit and third unit with an establishment cost of BDT 1,080 million
and BDT 960 million in the year 1998 and 2000 respectively.
Production Capacity
Unit Machinery Production capacity per day
Unit 1 36,288 Spindles 20,000 kilograms
Unit 2 23,184 Spindles & 768 Rotors 20,000 kilograms
Unit 3 3,192 open end heads 8,000 kilograms
With its sophisticated vertically integrated technology, Square Textile is producing 48,000 kilograms
of yarns every day. Authorized Capital of the company is BDT 3,000 million and Paid Up capital is BDT
1,789.13 million. Square Pharmaceuticals Limited holds 46.36% share of Square Textile Limited.
Square Textile Limited has two subsidiary companies. They are
a) Square Yarns Limited: Square Yarns Limited was established in 2006 with an establishment cost
of BDT 1,600 million. Square Yarns Limited has 31,248 spindles with daily production capacity of
18,500 kilograms. Square Textile Limited holds 99.48% shares of Square Yarns Limited.
b) Square Texcom Limited: Square Texcom Limited belongs to the textile industry. Square Textile
Limited holds 95% shares of Square Texcom Limited.

2. Square Hospitals Limited:


Revenue, NPAT and NPAT margin of Square Hospitals Limited
Square Hospitals Limited is a
(Amount in BDT million)
400-bed tertiary care hospital
350 0 16. 0%

Revenue (Net) Profit After Tax NPAT margin


located at Panthapath, 300 0

13.5% 13.5%
14. 0%

Dhaka. Square Hospitals 250 0


12. 0%

Limited started its operation 10. 0%

in the year 2006. Major 200 0

8.1% 8.3%
8.0 %

healthcare services provided 1,780


150 0

2,019 2,249 2,349 2,507 2,679 2,937


by Square Hospitals Limited 6.0 %

are radiology and imaging, 4.3%


100 0

0.9%
4.0 %

0.5% 318 338


chemotherapy, fine needle 500

216 245
97
2.0 %

8 18
aspiration cytology, bone 0 0.0 %

Marrow therapy, intensive 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-16
care unit, coronary care unit,
cardiac care, neonatal incentive care, physiotherapy, telemetry service and cardiac surgical intensive care.
Square hospitals Limited has appointed highly qualified physician from Bangladesh as well as from foreign
countries. The main building of the hospital is 18 storeyed and the second building is 16 storeyed with an
area of 450,000 square feet and 136,000 square feet respectively. The second building started its
commercial operation in 2011. The outpatient department of the company has the capacity to serve 1,200
patient daily. The hospital is an affiliate partner of Methodist Healthcare, Memphis, Tennessee, USA,
SingHealth, Singapore, Bangkok Hospital Medical Centre, Thailand and Christian Medical College, Vellore,
India. Square Pharmaceuticals Limited holds 49.94% share of Square Hospitals Limited.

2. Square Fashions Limited:


Square Fashions Limited was Revenue, OP, NPAT, NPAT margin of Square Fashions
Limited (Amount in BDT million)
established in 2001 with an Revenue (Net) Profit from Operations
establishment cost of BDT
1,200 million. The company
started its operation in June
2002. It involves in Readymade
Knit Apparel business with the
target market in USA and 9,003 9,229 13,884 14,513
Europe. Square fashion limited
produces T-shirt, Polo shirt, 974 2,044
855 782 1,104 1,506
tank tops, pajamas, sport wear, 474 366
sport ware, under garments,
mens and ladies fashion wear, 2012-2013 2013-2014 2013-14 (18 Month)2015-16 (18 Month)

kids wear etc. Square Pharmaceuticals Limited holds 48.63% share of Square Fashions Limited.

Production Capacity per day


T-Shirt Polo Shirt Women & Kids Undergarments
1,400 dozen 1,200 dozen 1,400 dozen 1,000 dozen

Prospects of Textile Industry in which Square Textile Limited & Square Fashion Belong: According to
Mckinsey & Company report titled “The appeal sourcing caravan’s next stop: digitalization”, Bangladesh is
the top choice of foreign importers of apparel product. Foreign importers of apparel product chose their
target country based on cost of raw material, exchange rate, labor cost, trade agreement, compliance cost,
transportation cost etc. Bangladesh is currently in favorable position in considering these aspects. Foreign
10
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
buyers demand huge quantity of product with a low cost. Bangladesh is ahead of other apparel exporting
countries like Ethopia, Mayanmar, Vietnam and India. Considering this demand Bangladesh is likely to
remain the number one choice for foreign importer of apparel product.
Minority Investments:
Name of the company Share Number Amount
Square Informatix Limited 1,000,000 ordinary shares n.a.
United Hospital Limited 120,000 shares n.a.
Central Depository Bangladesh Limited 5,711,804 shares n.a.
LankaBangla Finance Limited 100,000 zero coupon bond BDT 87, 125, 691
IDLC Finance Limited 250,000 zero coupon bond BDT 177,827,691
Bangladesh Steels Re-rolling mills 200,000 zero coupon bond BDT 177,827,691
Source: Annual Report 2015-16

Investment in marketable securities: Square Pharmaceuticals limited has an investment of BDT 2,695
million (market value) in marketable securities according to the Financial Statement 2017-18 Q1.
Dissolved subsidiaries and associates of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited
1. Square Cephalosporin Limited
2. Square Biotechs Limited
3. Square Multi Fabrics Limited
4. Square Knit Fabrics Limited
Approved merger: Square Formulations Limited (a subsidiary of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited) and
Square Herbal & Nutraceuticals (a concern of Square Group) will be merged with Square Pharmaceuticals
Limited. At the same time, Square Yarns Limited (a subsidiary of Square Textile Limited) will be merged
with Square Textile Limited.

Contribution of companies to Square Pharma's NPAT

2015-16 (15 Month)

2014-15 (15 Month)

2013-14

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

2014-15 (15 2015-16 (15


2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Month) Month)
Square Pharmacueitcals Limited (Solo) 82.32% 83.06% 81.45% 81.48% 93.18% 83.21%
Square Formulations Limited 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -6.25% 6.55%
Square Textile Limited 6.59% 5.73% 4.97% 3.84% 3.59% 3.00%
Square Fashions Limited 2.76% 3.25% 3.32% 5.86% 5.47% 6.18%
Square Hospitals Limited 0.20% 1.04% 2.91% 2.61% 2.44% 1.07%
Square Knit Fabrics Ltd 1.45% 1.79% 2.03% 1.36% 1.56% 0.00%
Square Cephalosporin Limited 6.68% 5.13% 5.31% 4.86% 0.00% 0.00%

Regulatory law that affect the business operation of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited
 VAT exemption to 93 items of life saving drugs and Duty exemption facility to various raw materials
used in pharmaceutical industry will facilitate the business operation of Square Pharmaceuticals
Limited.
 Duty exemption facility to various raw materials used in this industry such as API will help the company
to maintain the cost of raw materials at current level
 20% cash incentive on the amount of exported Active Pharmaceuticals Ingredient

11
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
Competitor Analysis (Based on the 2017 Q3 Financial Statements)
ACI (Solo) ACMELAB BXPHARMA RENETA (Solo) SQURPHARMA IBN Sina
Revenue (in BDT mn) 13,677 9,057 11,445 11,221 26,642 2,964
Gross Profit (in BDT mn) 6,001 3,588 5,340 5,918 13,571 1,225
Operating Profit(in BDT mn) 1,356 2,362 2,585 2,925 9,189 260
Net Profit (in BDT mn) 872 1,146 1,634 1,802 7,252 184

Total Asset 26,502 29,034 33,041 17,368 51,557 2,080


Total Equity 12,677 16,773 24,479 11,656 46,306 1,143
Total Liability 13,825 12,261 8,562 5,712 5,252 937

NAV 289.3 79.3 60.4 191.41 67.51 44.3


EPS 19.91 5.42 4.03 29.60 11.39 7.14

Margin
Gross Profit 43.88% 39.62% 46.66% 52.74% 50.94% 41.33%
Operating Profit 9.91% 26.08% 22.58% 26.07% 34.49% 8.76%
Net Profit 6.38% 12.65% 14.28% 16.06% 27.22% 6.21%
ROA 3.3% 3.9% 4.9% 10.3% 14.07% 8.8%
ROE 6.9% 6.8% 6.7% 15.5% 14.01% 16.1%

Financial Performance
In order to analyze financial performance of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited, annual information from
2012-13 to 2015-16 and 2016-17 (9 month annualized) information is considered.

Liquidity Position: STRONG


From the period 2012-13 Quick Ratio
Current Ratio
to 2015-16, Current ratio,
quick ratio and cash ratio
have increased. This
improvements are
6.3 5.6 5.0 4.8
attributed by the increase 5.0
4.3 3.6
2.8
in current asset, specially 2.3 1.4
increase of cash in large
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 A 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 A
amount. From 2014-15 to
2015-16 period the companies’ cash and cash equivalent has been Cash Ratio
doubled. In the period 2016-17, the current ratio stands at 5.6.
Quick ratio stands at BDT 4.8. Finally cash ratio shows that the
company has BDT 4.1 cash and cash equivalent to pay off its short
term liability. During the period 2016-17, those ratios has slightly
4.1
decreased. Nevertheless, the company maintains strong liquidity 4.0
2.7
position in all the metrics of liquidity analysis. 2.2
0.9
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 A
Operating Efficiency: IMPROVED
From 2012-13 to 2016-17
Average Collection Period (Days) Inventory Conversion Period(Days)
period, company’s
average collection period
on its payable was almost
static over the five years
13 53
period. 13 11 11 12 40 41 40 33

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 A 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
A

12
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
Square Pharma has
Payables Payment Period (Days) Cash Conversion Cycle (Days)
significantly decreased its
time on inventory
conversion period over
the last five years, 18.9
meaning that the 14.2 63.4
46.8 42.5
company is turning its 9.8 38.1 27.4
inventory into cash in a 2.5 4.1

shorter period of time. 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 A 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 A
During the period, 2012-
17, the inventory conversion period was 53 days while it was 33 Total Asset Turnover
days in the period 2016-17. The company decreased its inventory
conversion period about 20 days.
At the same time the company has increased its payable
payment period, meaning that the company is getting more time
0.8
to pay its debt. During the period 2012-13, payable payment 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8
period was 2.5 days while in 2016-17 (9 month annualized),
payable payment period was 18.9 days. The company is now
deferring its payment by almost 16 days. 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 A

Together with static average collection period, shorter inventory turnover period and payable payment
period, the cash conversion cycle of the company has decreased, meaning that the company requires less
working capital for running its operation than it required earlier.
However, the company’s asset turnover ratio remained almost static over the five years period. During the
period 2012-13, the total asset turnover was 0.8 times. The asset turnover increased in the following two
years. In the last two period, 2015-16 and 2016-17, the asset turnover ratio stayed at 0.8 times.

Profitability: INCREASED
Square Pharma retains a
Gross Profit Margin (GPM) Operating Profit Margin (OPM)
healthy amount of its
revenue. The gross profit
of the company stands at
48.4% in the year 2016-17
(9 month annualized). The
gross profit margin tends
to increase over the 44.2% 43.9% 44.6% 48.4% 48.4% 26.1% 26.0% 27.7% 32.6% 32.0%

period and currently 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 A 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 A
highest among the last
five years. Operating profit margin also shows an increasing Net Profit Margin (NPM)
trends over the five years period. Currently. Operating profit
margin is 32%. Net profit margin of the company also shows
increasing trend over the five years period. Current net profit
margin is 24.4% in 2016-17. It is to be noted that gross profit
margin, operating profit margin and net profit margin of Square
Pharmaceuticals Limited is the highest in the Pharmaceuticals 18.3% 17.8% 20.0% 25.1% 24.4%

Industry of Bangladesh. Highest margin of the company are one 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
A
of the main reasons of Square Pharma’s being the market leader
in the industry.

13
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
Other profitability margin also
ROE ROA
shows increasing trend over the
five years period. In the period
2011-12, ROA and ROE was
17.2% and 12.4% while in 2016-
17 (9 month annualized), ROE
and ROA was 23.2% and 19.6%. 17.3% 20.5% 19.6%
12.4% 14.7% 15.2%
Although the profitability is
slightly decreased in 2016-17 17.2% 21.6% 20.4% 22.0% 24.2% 23.2%

period compared with 2015-16, 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 A
de-growth is not quite significant.
It is to be noted that ROA and ROE of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited is the highest in the Pharmaceuticals
industry of Bangladesh.

Leverage ratio: LOW


Coverage ratio: HIGH
Square Pharmaceuticals Limited depends less on debt. Currently, the company has a small amount of short
term debt. As the company has low debt, it has strong capacity to pay off its debt. During the period 2016-
17, the company did not incur any financial expense.

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 A


Leverage Ratios
Total Debt to Equity 14.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Debt to Total Assets 12.2% 1.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Coverage Ratios
Times Interest Earned (TIE) 16.7 37.6 65.9 2,159.2 -

Investment Insights
Investment Positive
 The Pharmaceuticals industry of Bangladesh is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15% over the next five years
due to economic growth as well as population growth, growth of income level of people and increased
health awareness. Being the leader in the growing Pharmaceuticals industry; Square Pharmaceuticals
Limited is expected to grow at the same pace with the industry.
 Square Pharmaceuticals Limited is the market leader of pharmaceutical industry in Bangladesh and possess
17.73% market share as per IMS Health Report for Q2, 2017. The Company has strong fundamentals
compared to other pharmaceutical companies. It possess 27 blockbuster drugs among the top 100
medicines sold in Bangladesh according to IMS Health Care Report 2017 Q2.
 The company achieved 5 years revenue CAGR of 15.25% and NPAT CAGR of 25% respectively. It is expected
that the revenue and NPAT of the company will grow at this level in the future. Current NPAT margin stands
at 24.4% which is the highest in the industry.
 Square Pharmaceuticals Limited maintains huge capital expenditure. Average capital expenditure of the
company from 2011-12 to 2015-16 is more than BDT 3,500 million. Recently, Square Pharmaceuticals
Limited has decided to invest BDT 2.02 billion in order to import machinery and purchase land to upgrade
their facility. It is expected that new machinery and capital expenditure will help the company to generate
more turnover in the future.
 The company is setting up a subsidiary manufacturing plant in Nairobi, Kenya. It’s investment on this plant
will be USD 20 million (BDT 1,670 million). It is expected to complete the plant by June 2019. It is expected
that the revenue of the company will boost up with the commercial operation of the subsidiary.
 Square Formulations Limited and Square Herbal & Nutraceuticals Limited will merge with Square
Pharmaceuticals Limited. It is expected that Square Pharmaceuticals Limited will achieve economy of scale
after the merger.
 Square Pharma remained market leader of the Pharma industry since 1985. It is expected that the company
will continue to dominate the Pharma market.
 According to Q1 financials for 2017-18, Square Pharmaceuticals Limited has only BDT 218 million short
term debt. Lower debt creates lower financial expense for the company.

14
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
 Profit margins (gross, operating, pretax and net) are highest in the industry. The company also has higher
ROA and ROE as compared to other pharmaceutical companies, (19.6% and 23.2% respectively) where the
average ROA and ROE of its close competitors stand at 8.2% and 12.6% respectively.
 Square Formulation Limited, (a subsidiary of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited), incurred loss during 2014-
15. But the company turned into a profitable one during 2015-16 period. With the approved merger the
profitability of this company is likely to increase.
 Square Pharmaceuticals Limited has been allocated three plots in API Park in Munshigonj. It is expected
that the cost of raw material will significantly decrease with the commercial operation of API Park.
 Square Pharmaceuticals Limited is reputed for its high standard of corporate governance. The company
regularly communicates its shareholder about company’s actions, financials, and future plan through
different media. Square Pharma maintains transparency in its activities.

Investment Concern
 IMS 2017 Q2 report reveals that Square Pharmaceuticals Limited’s market share has slightly decreased.
Currently it holds 17.73% where it was 18.83% in 2016 Q2. Fierce competition in the pharma market may
negatively affect market share of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited in future.
 The Company is exposed to foreign exchange risk because ≈80% of the company’s raw materials are
imported thus any unfavorable change in currency rate will adversely affect company profit.
 The establishment of subsidiary in Kenya required debt finance of USD 12 million. It might cause cash
outflow of BDT 335 million in the future as financial expense.

Valuations & Key assumptions Revenue Contribution


9%
Revenue Square
Both Square Pharmaceuticals Limited and Square Pharmaceuticals
Limited
Formulations Limited contribute to the
Square Formulations
consolidated revenue of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited

Limited. In the year 2015-16, 15 month period,


91%
91% of consolidated revenue comes from Square
Pharmaceuticals Limited. Square Formulations
Market wise revenue
Limited contributed only 9% of consolidated Local Export
revenue. 2.84% 2.90% 3.85% 3.50% 3.76% 3.36%
Square Pharmaceuticals Limited sells it product
both in domestic and international market.
However, major portion of revenue comes from 97.16% 97.10% 96.15% 96.50% 96.24% 96.64%
the domestic market. During the period 2015-
16 (15 months period), export sales contributed
only 3.36% of total revenue where domestic
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 (15
sales contributed 96.64% of the total revenue. Month)
With the growth of Pharmaceuticals Industry
Local Sales of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited (Solo)-
over the last five years, revenue from local sales (Amonunt in BDT million)
of Square Pharma has also experienced healthy 45,0 00

Local Growth
45. 00%

40,0 00
38.21%
40. 00%

year on year growth. The average year on year 35,0 00 35. 00%

local sales growth was 20.28% from the period 30,0 00 30. 00%

2011-12 to 2015-16. The revenue from export 25,0 00

17.06% 24.83% 25. 00%

sales has also observed healthy average YoY 19.29%


20,0 00

10.47% 20. 00%

growth of 25.78% during the same time.


15,0 00 15. 00%

10,0 00 10. 00%

Overall, Pharma market leader “Square


18,054 19,944 23,347 29,144 40,279
5,00 0 5.0 0%

Pharmaceuticals Limited” has experienced - 0.0 0%

significant growth rate during the five years 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 (15
Month)
from 2012-13 to 2016-17. The company
experienced an average YoY growth of over 11% over this five years. Square Pharma achieved a significant
YoY growth of 20.35% and 18.75% in the year 2015-16 and 2016-17. From 2011-12 to 2016-17, for five
years period revenue CAGR was 15.25%.

15
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
Considering the fact that company will grow with the growth of pharma industry of Bangladesh, it is
assumed that the revenue will grow at a high rate in the first few years. Revenue growth rate is assumed
conservatively for the subsequent period.
Square Pharmaceuticals Limited is going to set up a subsidiary in Nairobi, Kenya. The cost of the project is
USD 20 million of which USD 8 million will be equity financed and rest of the part will be debt financed.
The project is expected to be completed by 2019.
It is expected that the subsidiary of Kenya will generate BDT 1,920 revenue in the first year of operation. It
is also anticipated that the revenue will grow at the rate of 10% in the two subsequent year. The revenue
growth of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited and the revenue of subsidiary of Square Pharmaceuticals
Limited in Kenya is summed up to forecast the revenue of total business.

Revenue and Growth Rate of Revenue of SQURPHARMA (Consolidated)


100 ,000

Revenue Growth 25%

20%
90,0 00

19%
80,0 00
18% 20%

70,0 00
14% 15% 15%
15%
60,0 00
11% 12% 12%
15%

50,0 00

40,0 00 10%

30,0 00

20,0 00 5%

10,0 00

24,930 27,942 31,845 38,325 45,510 53,702 61,757 71,088 81,539 91,612
- 0%

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-2022

Cost of goods Cost of Goods Sold


Cost of Goods sold
sold is decreasing Square Pharma’s cost of goods sold consists of
Raw material Packing material
as percentage of four items as raw material, packaging
Factory Overhead 3.5% Purchase of finished goods
total sales over material, factory overhead and purchase of
the time finished goods. For the period 2015-16 (15
months period), the breakdown of cost of
Assumed rate: goods sold is graphed in the right side. 30.1%
Historical trend shows that cost of goods for 45.4%
51% of Total
Sales over the Square Pharmaceuticals Limited is decreasing
forecasted period over the time. During the period 2011-12, the
cost of goods sold for the company was 60% 21.0%
of total sales. During the period 2013-14, the
cost of goods sold was 56% of total sales. In
Historical Costs as % of revenue
2014, Square Pharmaceuticals Limited
merged with Square Cephalosporin Limited Cost of Goods Sold Selling & Distribution Expenses Administrative Expenses
with the expectation that the cost will 2016-17
A 52% 13% 3%
decrease. At the same period, Square
Formulations Limited started its operation. In 2015-16 52% 13% 3%
the subsequent years, the cost of the
2014-15 55% 14% 3%
company decreased consistently as a result of
merger and newly operated subsidiary. 2013-14 56% 15% 4%
During the period 2016-17 (9 months
2012-13 56% 14% 4%
annualized) cost of goods sold was 52% of
total sales. Recently, Square Pharmaceuticals 2011-12 60% 13% 3%
Limited has announced that Square
Formulations Limited will be merged with
Square Pharmaceuticals Limited. It is expected that with this merger the company will achieve synergic
benefit and economy of scale. With this expectation, cost of goods sold is assumed as 51% of total sales
for the forecasted years.

16
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8

Assumed rate: Selling & Distribution Expense


13% of Total Sales Average historical selling and distribution expenses were accounted for 14% of total sales. From 2011-12
to 2016-17 period, selling and distribution expenses had a range of 13% to 15%. Latest 2016-17 9 month
Expected to stay annualized information and 2015-16 shows that selling & distribution expenses were 13% of total sales.
consistent as % of Selling and distribution expense has improved in the last two accounting year. Considering that the
sales in the efficiency will prevail in selling and distributing of product, selling and distribution expense has been set as
forecasted period 13% of total sales.
Assumed rate: Administrative Expense
3% of Total Sales Average administrative expense from the period 2011-12 to 2016-17 is 3%. From the period 2014-15 to
2016-17, administrative expense was 3% of total sales. Considering the fact that administrative expense
will stay at the same level, administrative expense has been set as 3% of total sales.
Other Non-Operating Income
Assumed rate: Other non-operating income includes bank interest, gain/ loss on marketable securities, interest income
2% of Total Sales to parent company etc. Average other non-operating income was 2% of total sales. Considering the fact
that historical trend will continue in the future, other non-operating income has been set as 2% of total
sales.
Assumed rate: Finance Expense
9% of Total Interest rate charged on the latest debt of the company was 11%. Average interest rate charged on the
Outstanding debt from the period 2011-12 to 2016-17 is 13.41%. It is expected that the lower rate of interest rate will
debt prevail in the future. Based on this expectation, 9% interest rate is charged on the outstanding debt of
Square Pharmaceuticals Limited.
Assumed rate: Provision for WPPF
5% of profit From 2011-12 to 2015-17 period, provision for WPPF was 5% of profit before WPPF & taxes. This rate will
before WPPF & prevail in the forecasted years.
taxes Capital Expenditure
The Historical capital expenditure of Square
Company maintains Pharmaceuticals Limited is presented in graph. Capital Expenditure
huge capital Every year, Square Pharmaceuticals Limited 2016-17 (9 month) 1,369
expenditure, capital maintains a healthy amount as capital
2015-16 2,799
expenditure expenditure. Average capital expenditure of the
exceeds BDT 3,500 company from 2011-12 to 2015-16 was BDT 2014-15 3,275

million on an 3,595 million. Square Pharmaceuticals Limited 2013-14 2,716


average had the highest capital expenditure during the
2012-13 5,416
period 2012-13 where the company constructed
several units in its pharmaceuticals plant. 2011-12 3,769

Currently, Square Pharmaceuticals Limited is


constructing two units in Dhaka plant which is expected to be operational by 2019. Square Pharmaceuticals
Limited has recently announced that the company will spend BDT 2,002 for purchasing land and importing
machineries. At the same time, Square pharmaceuticals Limited will also set up a subsidiary in Kenya where
the company will have huge capital expenditures. It is assumed that the company will maintain at least the
same amount of capital expenditure in the forecasted period along with the allocated capital expenditure
for purchasing land and machinery and subsidiary company capital expenditures to be allocated equally in
2017-18 and 2019-20. After this capital expenditure, company will revert to its normal level with an
addition of 12% and 15% in 2020-21 and 2021-22 respectively.
The Company
Dividends
prefers cash
Historical dividends of the company is
dividend rather Dividend history
given in the chat.
stock dividend, as Cash Dividend Stock Dividend
It is observed that Square 40%
company has huge
Pharmaceuticals Limited has decreased 30%
amount of cash in
stock dividend over the time and
hand. As a result,
increased cash dividend. 15% 12.5% 10% 7.5%
cash dividend is
It is expected that, the company will
increasing and
have sufficient amount of cash in its 25% 25% 30% 30% 40% 35%
stock dividend is
hand after 2016-17; there for the
decreasing 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 (15 2016-17
Month)

17
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
company will be able to increase its dividend payout ratio in future. The historical and forecast dividend
payout ratio is as follows.
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

49.6% 36.2% 41.1% 32.1% 30.8% 22.6% 36.2% 52.5% 61.3% 66.4% 63.8%

Long term Loans, current portion of long term debt and Short term debt: Square Pharmaceuticals Limited
currently has no debt outstanding according to Q3, 2017 financial statement. As the company is setting up
a subsidiary in Nairobi, Kenya; the company has to take long term debt of BDT 993.6 million (Considering
BDT 1 =USD 82.8, Debt required for the subsidiary is USD 12 million). The expected completion date of the
project is by 2019. It is assumed that Square Pharmaceuticals Limited will take 50% of this debt amount in
each year of 2017-18 and 2018-19 for the completion of the work in two phrase. The debt is will be repaid
in equal three installment over the period from 2019-20 to 2021-22.

Investment in Associate Companies:


i) Square Hospitals Limited: Square Pharmaceutical
YOY revenue Growth of Square Hospitals Limited
Limited’s 49.94% owned subsidiary Square hospital
limited has quite a healthy revenue growth from
2010-11 to 2015-16 period. Five years average
growth rate is 7.81% and compounded annual
growth rate is 7.79%. As the health sector of
Bangladesh is growing, it is expected that square
hospitals limited will generate more revenue. 9.63% 6.87% 6.71% 4.45% 11.41% 13.41%
Therefore, the revenue growth of Square Hospital
2015-16 2014-2015 2013-2014 2012-2013 2011-12 2010-11
Limited is assumed as 8% in the year 2017-18,
followed by 9% growth rate of 2018-19 and 2019-20. The revenue growth of 10% is assumed for the year
2020-21 and 2021-22. With an average NPAT margin of 15%, net profit of Square hospital is determined.
Form the net profit, 49.49% profit is summed up to determine the profit of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited.
It is to be noted that Square Hospitals Limited contributed only 1.07% to the total NPAT of Square
Pharmaceuticals Limited in 2015-16 (15 month period).

ii) Square textile Limited: Revenue growth and Net profit growth of Square Textile Limited has experienced
volatility over the time. However, glorious prospect of textile industry of Bangladesh is very likely to occur
in the near future.
Recently, Square Textile Limited has announced Revenue and NPAT Growth of Square Textile
Limited
an investment plan in 17th October, 2017 to
Revenue Growth NPAT Growth
build a yarn production unit with a production
capacity of 4,510 ton per annum. Estimated cost 54%
of the project is BDT 1,194 million and expected 41.85% 44.04%

completion date is May 2018. Estimated 15.55%


4.17% -3.81%
turnover of the yarn unit is BDT 983.7 million -7%
and anticipated NPAT is BDT 79.7 million.
2015-16 -1% 2014 2013 2012 2011
With the growth of textile industry, the revenue -7%
-29.49%
of Square textile is likely to increase. It is
assumed that the revenue of Square textile will
grow at the rate of 5% in the forecasted years where net profit margin is assumed as 9.4%. As Square
Pharmaceuticals Limited holds 46.36% of Square Textile Limited, the profit portion from Square Textile
Limited is summed up to determine the profit of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited. It is to be noted that
Square textile contributed only 3% to the total NPAT of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited in 2015-16 (15
month period).

18
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
iii) Square Fashions Limited: Square
Pharmaceuticals Limited holds 6.18% of Square NPAT of Square Fashions Limited
NPAT YoY NPAT growth
Fashions Limited. As Square Fashion Limited 1,20 0 113.5% 120 .0%

belongs to the same industry of Square Textile 1,00 0


24.5% 100 .0%

Limited, the prospect of Square Fashions Limited 800 80. 0%

is also promising. Therefore, it is assumed that the 600 60. 0%

18.0% 26.6%
NPAT of Square Fashions Limited will increase at
400 40. 0%

3.1%
200 20. 0%

the 4% in the forecasted years. As Square 1,004 974 782 366 311
- 0.0 %

Pharmaceuticals Limited holds 48.63% of Square


2015-16 2014 2013 2012 2011
Fashion Limited, the profit from Square Fashions
Limited is summed up to determine the profit of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited. It is to be noted that
Square Fashions Limited contributed 6.18% of the total profit of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited.
Effective Tax rate: The effective tax rate history of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited is as follows
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Average
24.9% 24.0% 24.5% 24.5%
The tax rate for Square Pharmaceuticals Limited is 25%. Average effective tax rate from 2014-15 to 2015-
16 is 24.5%. This rate has been maintained in the forecasted years.

Technical Indicators and performance in


DSE SQURPHARMA vs DSEX
SQURPHARMA DSEX
From 2013 to November 2017, Square
Pharmaceuticals Limited outperformed 180 %

the DSEX index.


160 %

3 Month Return of SQURPHARMA: 4.19%


1 Year Return of SQURPHARMA: 8.54% 140 %

Resistance BDT 300.0 120 %

Support BDT 263.5


RSI: 61.01 100 %

MFI: 71.68 80%

3 Months Average Volume: 456,029 January/13 January/14 January/15 January/16 January/17

19
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
Free cash flow to firm Valuation
With discount rate of 10.75% and terminal growth rate of 5%. Free cash Flow to firm analysis gives Net
Present Value (PV) of Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) of BDT 262.26 billion as of June, 2017. The fair value
using DCF method stands at BDT 355.67 per share for the company, which implies an upside of 19.7% from
current market price.
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-2022 Terminal
Profit for the Year 11,455 13,147 15,159 17,410 19,580
Add: After Tax Interest Expenses 34 68 51 35 19
Add: Depreciation & Amortization 2,036 2,316 2,297 3,244 3,240
Less: Investment (Divestment) in NWC 976 699 1,503 1,048 951
Less: CAPEX 4,662 5,730 6,797 4,026 4,630
Free Cash Flow to the Firm 7,887 9,102 9,207 15,614 17,257 315,150

Enterprise Value 248,173


Plus: Cash & cash equivalent 14,579
Less: Interest Bearing Debt 497
Equity Value 262,255
Value of NCI's 5
Equity Value Shareholders 262,251
No. of Share Outstanding 737.3
Value per Share 355.67

Sensitivity Analysis
We have also checked the sensitivity analysis of FCFF value per share on different discount rate and
terminal growth rate. We considered a discount with a range from 9.0% to 12.0% and terminal rate with a
range from 3.5% to 6.5%. As a result, we got values range from 251.1 to 780.2
Sensitivity Analysis of Free Cash flow to firm
Discount Rates
9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.75% 10.9% 11.0% 11.7% 12.0%
Terminal Growth

3.50% 385.9 354.0 327.1 293.6 289.3 284.0 261.1 251.1


4.00% 418.7 381.0 349.6 311.3 306.3 300.3 274.5 263.4
5.00% 509.1 453.0 408.2 355.6 349.1 341.0 307.3 293.1
5.50% 573.6 502.6 447.3 384.2 376.4 367.0 327.8 311.4
6.00% 659.7 566.2 496.1 418.7 409.4 398.1 351.8 332.8
6.50% 780.2 651.1 558.9 461.4 449.9 436.1 380.4 358.0

Residual Earnings Valuation


With discount rate of 10.75% and terminal growth rate of 5%. Residual Earnings analysis gives Net Present
Value (PV) of Residual Earnings of BDT 218.2 billion as of June, 2017. The fair value using RE method stands
at BDT 295.9 per share for the company, which implies an upside of -0.4% from current market price.

2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-2022


Net Profit 11,455 13,147 15,159 17,410 19,580
Equity 49,373 56,802 62,431 66,512 69,671 73,415
Benchmark Income 5,307 6,106 6,711 7,150 7,489
Residual Income 6,148 7,041 8,447 10,260 12,091
PV of Residual Income 6,148 6,358 6,887 7,553 8,037
Summation of PV of residual income 28,835
Continuing value 220,806
PV of terminal value 132,526
Equity Value 218,163
Number of Shares 737.3
Value Per Share 295.9

20
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
Sensitivity Analysis
We have also checked the sensitivity analysis of RE value per share on discount rate and terminal growth
rate. We considered a discount with a range from 9.0% to 12.0% and terminal rate with a range from 3.5%
to 6.5%. As a result, we got values range from 216.9 to 622.5

Sensitivity Analysis of Residual Earnings


Discount Rates
9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.8% 10.9% 11.0% 11.7% 12.0%

Terminal Growth
3.50% 343.4 313.4 288.0 256.6 252.6 247.6 226.2 216.9
4.00% 366.7 331.9 303.0 267.8 263.3 257.7 234.1 224.0
5.00% 430.6 381.3 341.9 295.9 290.1 283.1 253.7 241.3
5.50% 476.3 415.3 367.9 313.9 307.3 299.2 265.8 251.9
6.00% 537.2 458.9 400.4 335.8 328.0 318.6 280.1 264.3
6.50% 622.5 517.2 442.1 362.8 353.4 342.2 297.1 279.0

Determination of Price in Discounted Cash Flow Method: We put equal weight on the value derived from
free cash flow to firm model and residual earnings model to determine the price under discounted cash
flow method.
Discounted Cash flow Price Weight
Free Cash flow to firm 355.67 50%
Residual Earnings Model 295.88 50%
Weighted Average 325.8
Relative Valuation Methods
We conducted relative valuation using different relative valuations techniques.
Relative Valuations
Multiple Expected EPS Valuations
Peers P/E (Note 1) 23.84 16.70 398.17
Average Historical P/E 24.31 16.70 406.04
multiple (Note 2)
Multiple Expected NAVPS Valuations
Peers P/B (Note 1) 3.81 82.81 315.29
Multiple Expected Sales/ Share Valuations
Peers P/S (Note 1) 4.04 78.29 316.15

Multiple Expected EBITDA Enterprise Value


EV/EBITDA 16.94 16,865.85 287,360.36
(-) Total Debt 497
(+) Cash & Cash Equiv. 16,882
(a) Equity Value 303,745.22
(-) NCI 4.58
(b) Equity Value to Shareholder 303,740.64
(c) Number of Share outstanding 737.34
(b/c) Valuations 434.60

Average

Valuation Methods Valuations


Peers P/E 398.17
Average Historical P/E multiple 406.04
Peers P/B 315.29
Peers P/S 316.15
EV/EBITDA 434.60
Average Value Per share 367.93

21
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
Note 1: Calculations of Peer’s multiples

Company Name P/E P/B P/S EV/EBITDA


Acme Laboratories 17.35 1.43 0.04 9.94
Beximco Pharma 19.95 1.78 3.81 15.44
IBNE Sina 28.29 5.99 2.21 20.89
Renata 29.78 6.03 6.09 21.52
Average Multiple 23.84 3.81 4.04 16.94

* P/S multiple of Acme Laboratories is excluded to calculate average multiple as the P/S of ACMELAB is
outlier
Note 2: Calculations of Historical P/E

Historical PE P/E
Current P/E 25.17
TTM PE 18.96
PE at YE 2016 17.18
PE at YE 2015 27.41
PE at YE 2014 29.93
PE at YE 2013 21.88
Average 24.31

Determination of Target Price


We recommend an equal weight on Valuation Methods Estimated Value Weights
value that we derived from DCF Discounted Cash Flow 325.77 50%
valuation and relative valuations Relative valuations 367.93 50%
method. Based on the weighted average Target Price 346.85 100%
of the DCF and relative valuation we get
a target price of BDT 346.85 for the
company. Current Price 297.20
Target Price 346.85
At current market price, Square
Expected Capital Gain 16.71%
Pharma’s shares have a P/E multiple of
18.45 for 2016-17 Q3 annualized Target Holding Period 1 Year
earnings. With our recommended target Expected Dividend Yield 1.11%
price the stock gives a total of 17.80% 17.80%
Total Return
expected return. We therefore state an
‘Overweight’ rating on the Square Pharma’s stock at its prevailing price level.

22
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8

Appendix

Yearly Financial Statements and Analysis

Amount in BDT million (Except Otherwise Stated)

Square Pharmaceuticals Limited: Consolidated Statement of Profit and Loss and other comprehensive Income
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Revenue 27,942 31,845 38,325 45,510 53,702 61,757
Less: Vat 3,766 4,313 5,252 6,815 8,041 9,248
Net Revenue 24,176 27,532 33,073 38,695 45,660 52,509

Cost of Goods Sold 13,572 15,260 17,082 19,986 23,287 26,780


Gross Profit 10,604 12,272 15,991 18,709 22,374 25,730

Operating Expenses: 4,319 4,656 5,195 6,314 7,451 8,569


Selling & Distribution Expenses 3,598 3,863 4,350 5,089 6,005 6,906
Administrative Expenses 722 793 845 1,225 1,446 1,663

Operating Profit 6,285 7,617 10,796 12,395 14,923 17,161

Financial Expenses 167 116 5 - 45 89


Other Non-Operating Income 253 332 657 774 1,074 1,235
Profit Before WPPF 6,371 7,833 11,448 13,169 15,952 18,307
Provision For WPPF 318 396 544 643 779 895
Profit Before Tax 6,053 7,438 10,904 12,525 15,172 17,412

Income tax expense 1,601 1,756 2,389 3,068 3,717 4,265


Deferred Tax 148 174 227
Deferred Tax Asset 75
Total Tax 1,749 1,855 2,616 3,068 3,717 4,265

Earning After Tax 4,304 5,583 8,288 9,457 11,455 13,147


Profit/(Loss) from Associates Undertaking 698 827 917 1,231 1,296 1,367
Tax Exemption Reserve 302
Total Comprehensive Income 5,002 6,410 8,903 10,688 11,455 13,147
Restated EPS 7.3 9.3 13.0 15.6 16.7 19.2

23
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
Amount in BDT million (Except Otherwise Stated)
Square Pharmaceuticals Limited: Consolidated Statement of Financial Position
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
ASSETS
Non-Current Assets 18,614 25,600 27,240 29,645 34,547 40,940
Property, Plant and Equipment 11,747 18,148 18,848 20,022 23,628 27,042
Capital Work-in-Progress 2,894 88
Investment 3,166 234 556 556 556 556
Investment in Marketable Securities 807 898 1,072 1,072 1,072 2,684
Investment in Associates Companies 6,160 6,765 7,996 9,291 10,658
Deferred tax asset 72 - - -

Current Assets 9,428 11,040 17,063 23,955 27,489 27,801


Inventories 2,589 3,661 3,695 4,256 4,566 4,726
Accounts Receivables 840 909 1,336 1,416 1,671 1,922
Advances, Deposits and Prepayments 846 852 1,131 1,196 1,411 1,623
Short Term Loan 2,260 1,095 2,379 2,507 2,959 3,403
Cash and Cash Equivalents 2,893 4,524 8,523 14,579 16,882 16,128

Total Assets 28,042 36,640 44,303 53,600 62,035 68,740

EQUITY AND LIABILITIES


Shareholders' Equity 25,323 32,914 40,558 49,373 56,802 62,431
Share Capital 4,820 5,543 6,236 6,750 7,119 7,312
Share Premium 2,035 2,035 2,035 2,035 2,035 2,035
Reserve 106 106 106 106 106 106
Tax Holiday Reserve 285 302
Retained Earnings/ Revenue Reserve 17,712 24,960 31,612 39,898 46,927 52,329
Non-Controlling Interest 1 2 5 7
Gain on Marketable Securities 365 270 267 582 611 642

Non-Current Liabilities: 828 1,137 1,054 1,161 1,912 2,621


Long Term Loans 100 237 497 994
Deferred Tax Liability 728 900 1,054 1,161 1,415 1,628

Current Liabilities: 1,891 2,590 2,692 3,066 3,321 3,688


Short Term Bank Loans 110 2 3
Long Term Loans - Current Portion 154 73
Trade Creditors 182 651 694 813 936 1,050
Liabilities for other finance 1,420 1,766 1,952 2,167 2,283 2,520
Liabilities for Expenses & Services 25 98 43 86 102 117

TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY AND


LIABILITIES 28,042 36,640 44,304 53,600 62,035 68,740

Net Asset Value (NAV) per share 36.9 48.0 59.1 72.0 82.8 91.0

24
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8

Financial Analysis
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Liquidity Ratios:
Current Ratio 5.0 4.3 6.3 7.8 8.3 7.5
Quick Ratio 3.6 2.8 5.0 6.4 6.9 6.3
Cash Ratio 2.7 2.2 4.0 0.8 0.9 0.9

Operating Efficiency Ratios


Inventory Turnover Ratio 9. 1 8.8 9.0 9.7 10.4 11.3
Receivable Turnover Ratio 31.8 31.5 29.5 28.1 29.6 29.2
Average Collection Period (Days) 11.3 11.4 12.2 12.8 12.2 12.3
Inventory Conversion Period(Days) 39.6 40.9 40.0 37.0 34.8 31.9
Operating Cycle (Days) 50.9 52.3 52.3 49.8 47.0 44.2
A/C Payable Turnover Ratio 88.4 36.7 25.4 26.5 26.6 27.0
Payables Payment Period (Days) 4.1 9.8 14.2 13.6 13.5 13.4
Cash Conversion Cycle (Days) 46.8 42.5 38.1 36.2 33.4 30.8
Total Asset Turnover 0.86 0.85 0.82 0.79 0.79 0.80
Fixed Asset Turnover 2.34 1.84 1.79 1.99 2.09 2.07

Operating Profitability Ratios


Gross Profit Margin (GPM) 43.9% 44.6% 48.4% 48.4% 49.0% 49.0%
Operating Profit Margin (OPM) 26.0% 27.7% 32.6% 32.0% 32.7% 32.7%
Pre Tax Profit Margin 26.4% 28.5% 34.6% 34.0% 34.9% 34.9%
Net Profit Margin (NPM) 17.8% 20.3% 25.1% 24.4% 25.1% 25.0%
Return on Total Assets (ROA) 15.2% 17.3% 20.5% 19.3% 19.8% 20.1%
Return on Equity (ROE) 20.4% 22.0% 24.2% 23.8% 21.6% 22.1%

Leverage Ratios
Total Debt to Equity 1.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1.6%
Debt to Total Assets 1.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1.4%

Coverage Ratios
Times Interest Earned (TIE) 37.6 65.9 2,159.2 333.7 191.9

Enterprise Value
Market Value of Equity 142,762 158,327 155,901 221,203 232,263 238,069
Short Term Loan 264 75 3 - - -
Long Term Loan 100 237 - - 497 994
Total Debt 364 312 3 - 497 994
Cash & Cash Equivalents 2,893 4,524 8,523 14,579 16,882 16,128
Enterprise Value 140,234 154,115 147,382 206,623 215,878 222,935

Valuation Ratios
P/B (price to book) Ratio 7.0 5.3 4.2 4.2 3.6 3.3
Book Value Per Share 36.9 48.0 59.1 72.0 82.8 91.0
EPS 7.3 9.3 13.0 15.6 16.7 19.2
Dividend per Share 3 3 4.0 3.50 6.00 10.00
Dividend Payout Ratio 41.1% 32.1% 30.8% 22.5% 35.9% 52.2%
25
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
Retention Rate 59% 68% 69% 78% 64% 48%
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
P/E Ratio 35.3 27.2 19.3 19.3 18.0 15.7
EV/EBITDA 18.7 16.0 13.1 14.4 12.7 11.4
EV/Sales 5.8 5.6 4.5 5.3 4.7 4.2
Price/Sales 2.7 2.3 1.9 2.3 2.0 1.7
Tobin's q 7.0 5.3 4.2 4.2 3.6 3.3
Sales/ Share 93.9 108.4 132.3 129.0 152.2 175.0

Growth Rates
EPS Growth Rate 5.6% 28.1% 38.9% 20.1% 7.2% 14.8%
Dividend Growth Rate 0.2 - 0.3 (0.1) 0.7 0.7
Sales Growth Rate 12.2% 13.9% 20.1% 17.0% 18.0% 15.0%
Gross Profit Growth Rate 11.4% 15.7% 30.3% 17.0% 19.6% 15.0%
EBIT Growth Rate 11.9% 21.2% 41.7% 14.8% 20.4% 15.0%
Net Income Growth Rate 9.4% 29.7% 48.5% 14.1% 21.1% 14.8%
Dividend Payout Ratio 0.1 (0.2) (0.0) (0.3) 0.6 0.5
Retention Rate (0.1) 0.2 0.0 0.1 (0.2) (0.3)
Total Asset Growth Rate -1.6% 30.7% 20.9% 21.0% 15.7% 10.8%

Other Data
Stock price- Period End 257.6 253.9 250.01 300 300 300
Number of shares outstanding 554.2 623.58 623.58 737 774 794
Market Cap 142,762 158,327 155,901 221,203 232,263 238,069
EBITDA 7,506 9,616 11,277 14,328 16,959 19,477
Depreciation 1,221 1,999 481 1,933 2,036 2,316

DUPONT ANALYSIS
Net profit margin 17.8% 20.3% 25.1% 24.4% 25.1% 25.0%
Asset Turnover 85.5% 85.1% 81.7% 79.0% 79.0% 80.3%
ROA 15.2% 17.3% 20.5% 19.3% 19.8% 20.1%
Return on Asset 15.2% 17.3% 20.5% 19.3% 19.8% 20.1%
Equity Multiplier 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
ROE 20.4% 22.0% 24.2% 23.8% 21.6% 22.1%

Extended DUPONT ANALYSIS


Net Profit/Pretax Profit 71.1% 75.1% 76.0% 75.5% 75.5% 75.5%
Pretax Profit/EBIT 96.3% 97.6% 101.0% 101.1% 101.7% 101.5%
EBIT/Sales 26.0% 27.7% 32.6% 32.0% 32.7% 32.7%
Sales/Assets 85.5% 85.1% 81.7% 79.0% 79.0% 80.3%
Assets/Equity 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
ROE 20.4% 22.0% 24.2% 23.8% 21.6% 22.1%

26
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8

Altman Z Score 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19


Current Assets 9,428 11,040 17,063 23,955 27,489 27,801
Current Liabilities 828 1,137 1,054 1,161 1,912 2,621
Working Capital 8,599 9,904 16,009 22,794 25,576 25,179
Total Assets 28,042 36,640 44,303 53,600 62,035 68,740
Working Capital/Total Assets 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Weight
Total 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4

Retained Earnings 17,712 24,960 31,612 39,898 46,927 52,329


Retained Earnings/Total Assets 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8
Weight
Total 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1

EBIT 6,285 7,617 10,796 12,395 14,923 17,161


EBIT/Total Assets 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Weight
Total 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Market Price 258 254 250 300 300 300


No. of Shares 554 624 624 737 774 794
Market Value of Equity 142,762 158,327 155,901 221,203 232,263 238,069
Total Liability 2,719 3,726 3,746 4,227 5,233 6,309
Market Value of Equity/Total Debt 52 42 42 52 44 38
Weight
Total 31.5 25.5 25.0 31.4 26.6 22.6

Sales 24,176 27,532 33,073 38,695 45,660 52,509


Sales/Total Assets 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8
Weight
Total 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8

Altman Z SCORE 34.4 28.2 28.0 34.4 29.7 25.7

Risk Distribution
Z > 2.9

1.81 < Z < 2.90


Z < 1.81

27
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
Quarterly Statement of Comprehensive Income

2014-15 2015-16 2016-17


Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17

Revenue 8,507 9,365 8,857 9,736 10,367 9,818 10,083 10,991

Less: Tax 1,156 1,307 1,243 1,277 1,426 1,385 1,383 1,482

Net Revenue 7,351 8,058 7,614 8,459 8,942 8,433 8,700 9,509

Cost of Goods Sold 3,875 4,110 3,717 4,556 4,700 4,267 4,257 4,797

Gross Profit 3,476 3,949 3,897 3,903 4,242 4,166 4,443 4,712

Operating Expenses: 1,337 1,434 1,362 1,091 1,308 1,359 1,507 1,266
Selling & Distribution
Expenses 1,095 1,225 1,043 913 1,169 1,160 1,288 1,079

Administrative Expenses 242 209 320 178 139 199 219 187

Operating Profit 2,139 2,515 2,535 2,813 2,934 2,808 2,936 3,446

Financial Expenses 14 5 0.2 0.1 (0) 0.01 0.14

Other Non-Operating Income 103 115 156 189 197 217 221 301

Profit Before WPPF 2,228 2,625 2,691 3,001 3,131 3,024 3,157 3,747

Provision For WPPF 114 124 128 143 149 144 159 178

Profit Before Tax 2,114 2,501 2,563 2,858 2,982 2,880 2,998 3,569

Current Tax 546 629 527 572 662 622 732 797

Deferred Tax 11 29 32 133 33 37 (13) 18

Total Tax 557 658 558 705 695 659 719 815

Earning After Tax 1,557 1,843 2,004 2,153 2,287 2,221 2,279 2,754
Profit/(Loss) from Associates
Undertaking 259 141 198 342 236 204 179 180

Tax Exemption Reserve 87 215


Total Comprehensive
Income 1,816 1,984 2,115 2,495 2,308 2,425 2,458 2,934

Restated EPS 2.65 2.89 3.08 3.64 3.36 3.54 3.58 4.28

28
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
Calculations used in relative valuations
Acme Laboratories Beximco Pharma IBNE Sina Renata (Consolidated)
Number of Share 211.6 405.6 25.8 1,166.7
Outstanding
Price 115.4 107.5 253.8 60.9
Market Value of Equity 24,418.6 43,597.7 6,553.4 71,048.0
Short Term Loan 6,170.0 8,395.0 141.3 1,567.0
Long Term Loan 3,411.0 2,701.0 123.0
Total Debt 9,581.0 11,096.0 141.3 1,690.0
Cash & Cash Equivalents 1,278.0 237.8 176.5 627.0
Enterprise Value 32,721.6 54,455.9 6,518.2 72,111.0

EBIT 2,286.0 2,614.0 250.9 2,851.0


Depreciation & 1,006.0 913.6 61.2 500.6
Amortization
EBITDA 3,292.0 3,527.6 312.1 3,351.6

Revenue 9,769.8 11,444.6 2,963.0 11,659.4


Revenue/ Share 46.17 28.22 114.75 9.99

TERMINOLOGIES
P/E = Price to Earning
P/B = Price to Book Value
P/S = Price to sales
EBIT = Earnings before Interest and Tax
EBITDA = Earnings before Interest, tax, depreciation and amortization

STOCK RATING
 Overweight: Overweight indicates that the stock is expected to outperform the broader market averages. In our analysis, we refer to
overweight as an indication to make a “buy” call. It usually derives the rating from comparing the expected return from the stock in a specified
time period with weighted average cost of capital. Overweight concludes that expected return from the stock is greater than the weighted
average cost of capital.
 Market weight: Market weight indicates that the stock is expected to equal performance of broader market averages. In our analysis, we refer
to market weight as an indication to make a “hold call”. It usually derives the rating from comparing the expected return from the stock in a
specified time period with weighted average cost of capital. Market weight concludes that expected return from the stock is equal to
weighted average cost of capital.
 Underweight: Underweight indicates that the stock is expected to underperform broader market averages. In our analysis, we refer to
overweight as an indication to make a “sell” call. It usually derives the rating from comparing the expected return from the stock in a specified
time period with weighted average cost of capital. Underweight concludes that expected return from the stock is less than the weighted
average cost of capital.
 Not-Rated: “Not-Rated” implies that currently the analyst does not have adequate conviction about the stock's total return relative to the
broader market average.

29
Valuation Report on SQURPHARMA Date: 16th November, 2017
Current Price (BDT): 297.2 Target Price (BDT): 346.8
DISCLAIMER
This document has been prepared by the Research Team of EBL Securities Limited (EBLSL) for information only of its clients
residing both in Bangladesh and abroad, on the basis of the publicly available information in the market and own research.
This document has been prepared for information purpose only and does not solicit any action based on the material contained
herein and should not be taken as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell or subscribe to any security. Neither EBLSL nor any of
its directors, shareholders, member of the management or employee represents or warrants expressly or impliedly that
the information or data of the sources used in the documents are genuine, accurate, complete, authentic and correct.
However all reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the contents of this document. EBLSL will not take any
responsibility for any decisions made by investors based on the information herein.

ANALYST DISCLAIMER
The person or persons named as the author(s) of this report hereby certify that the views expressed in the research report
accurately reflect their personal views about the subject matters discussed. No part of their compensation was, is, or will
be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the research report. The views of the
author(s) do not necessarily reflect the views of the EBL Securities Limited (EBLSL) and are subject to change without any
notice. All reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the contents of this document and the author(s) will not
take any responsibility for any decisions made by investors based on the information herein.

ABOUT EBL SECURITIES LTD.


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EBLSL RESEARCH TEAM


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