Volume 6, Issue 1, January – 2021 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165
Forecasting of Air Pollutants by Using ARIMA
Approach in Dhaka City, Bangladesh
Kamrul Hasana, Momotaj Akhter a, MustafizurRahmana, Md. Shahina.
a
Department of Environmental Science& Disaster Management, Noakhali Science & Technology University, Noakhali 3814,
Bangladesh
Abstract:- Air pollution in the city of Dhaka is a matter of
concern, as health impacts have been raised in recent
years by vehicle emissions and industrial fatigue.The
major air pollutants which are resulted due tocontrol use
of diesel, petrol, and CNG gases by automobiles and
industries are Sulphur dioxide (SO2), Carbon monoxide
(CO),Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx), Ozone (O3), PM2.5 and
PM10. These pollutants have detrimental effects on health
and the environment.In this study, Auto-Regressive
Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling
methodwhich has beenused to predict monthly average
air pollutants (SO2, NOx,CO, O3, PM2.5, and PM10)
concentration in Dhaka city. Changes have been applied
to each time series in order to properly balance the
variants so that they can be reliably fixed.In addition to
ACF (Auto-Correlation Function) and PACF (Partial
Auto-Correlation Function) checkups, the combination of
various data-criteria such as AIC (Akaike Information
Criteria) and BIC (Baysian Information Criteria) has
been applied for finding the proper orders of
autoregressive (p), integration (d) and moving average (q)
parameters for the ARIMA (p,d,q) models.The predicted
performance of the ARIMA (p, d, q) models selection has
been estimated based on the sources of MAE (Mean
Absolute Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage
Error)and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) pointers.
For forecasting, the MAPE for SO2, NOx,CO, O3, PM2.5,
and PM10are 5.62, 5.85, 5.35, 4.16, 5.49, and 5.12%,
respectively. This study shows that the ARIMA modelling
approachis good and satisfactory.
Keywords:- ARIMA modeling, Forecasting, Air pollutants,
ADF test, ACF and PACF.
I. INTRODUCTION
Air is a fundamental prerequisite for the survival and
development of all living things on earth that affects health
and economic development.There are many pollutants or
toxins in the air like SO2, NOx,CO, O3, PM2.5, and PM10 and
these cause air pollutions[2]. The high intrusion of
individuals from provincial areas, discharge from various
types of diesel vehicles and stored automobiles, burning of
biomass / coal for cooking in brick kilns, working on a large
number of structures, re-suspending street dust are making
Dhaka as the most polluted cities in the world because
Bangladesh is probably the most polluted city in the
world[11]. According to a World Bank report, it is estimated
that about 10,800 people in Dhaka City regularly die of
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unexpected deaths as well as millions of illnesses due to air
pollution[11].The cost of these illnesses and deaths is
estimated at $132 - $583million per year for the city of
Dhaka[3]. Surveillance of air pollutants is an important task
for the process of evaluating control measures for air
pollution in a city affected by increasingly heavy vehicles and
daily increasing air pollution[5]. The control system will be
more effective if the forecast is reliable and confidential. At
the point when the objective is to forecast, It has been
isolated that deeply learned multi-parameter weather-related
models predict or reduce the concentration of air
pollutants[8].Indeed, Photochemical models make it very
difficult to model these pollutants quickly and accurately
through detailed weather and processing estimates of the
physical and chemical processes that air pollutants take into
the atmosphere, the complexities of weather in urban areas,
and all the parameters involved[1,12]. Therefore, Statistical
or time series modeling methods can give very effective
purposes for Short-term forecasts of air
pollutants[1].Although they follow the "black box" method,
stochastic models can give adequate results[10]. Robeson and
Stein (1990) concluded in their study that the rigidity model
of the ARIMA has almost the same predictive capabilities as
the mixed destructive / stochastic model that performs the
worst when predicting the maximum daily ozone
concentration. Kumar et al.(2004)usesthe ARIMA modelling
method to predict daily surface O3 concentration at Brunei
Darussalam. In that study, The overall model presentation of
the one-day daily maximum O3 density forecast has proven to
be quite satisfactory, such as fractional bias, average class
error of generalizationand mean absolute percentage error
(MAPE) as 0.025, 0.02 and 13.14% respectivelyThat paper
uses a stochastic time series approach, especially the
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models
to improve the number prediction for multiple steps in Dhaka
city. The ARIMA method has been widely used in air quality
forecasting[4,5,6,7,9,13].
This study usedthe approach of ARIMA to realize the
time series characteristics of pollutants. Arima can take data
ignored by numerical models. Then we control the data to
adjust the number predictions to minimize systemic errors for
multistep predictions.This process is referred to as ARIMAX
where X gives the output from the number models. If we can
measure the future condition, Department of Environment
can make some fundamental move to recover the harmful
condition.The keygoal of this paper lies to predict the future
condition of air pollutants in Dhaka city and to determine the
best ARIMA fit (ARIMA (p, d, q)) for forecasting.
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II.MATERIALS AND METHODS
A. Site Description
Dhaka is the capital city of Bangladesh which is
situated in central of the country at 23°41’ N latitude to
90°22’E longitude and lies on the bottom of the Ganges delta.
It covers a total area of 306.38 km2 and is prone to heavy
rainfall and cyclonic floods during the monsoon season due to
International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165
the topography. The city is fenced by Gazipur, Tangail,
Munshiganj, Narayanganj, and Rajbari districts. This survey
is based on three Consecutive Air Monitoring Stations
(CAMS), Parliamentary Region (CAMS 1), Bangladesh
Agricultural Research Council (BARC, Farmgate Region,
CAMS 2), and Darussalam (Mirpur, CAMS 3) of Parliament
City Corporation[14]. Figure 1 shows the sample site of
Dhaka city.

Fig. 1 Study site with air pollutants’ sample points of Dhaka City, Bangladesh

B. Materials for predictive purposes. Figure 2 shows the different steps of

In this study, all the data are secondary. After collecting this model.
data, these are organized, summarized, and analyzed in excel
and R studio software. Only one dataset was used in this
research. This dataset was provided by Clean Air and
Sustainable Development(CASE) project of the Ministry of
Environment, Forest and Climate Change of the Government
of Bangladesh with a combination of six standard air
pollutants (SO2, NOx,CO, O3, PM2.5, and PM10) with
monthly average density from 01/01/2015 to 31/12/2019.
Since we have used the monthly mean concentration of six air
pollutants, there is no missing data for this article.

C. Statistical analysis:
In this article, we have used Box-Jenkins methods to
analyze the data. This method arecapable ofgiving both
stationary and non-stationary time series which are classified
as linear models. This methodsarevery essential in forecasting Fig.2 Box-Jenkins methods
which includes Autoregressive (AR) models, the Integrated
(I) models, and the Moving Average (MA) models. Four After collecting data, at first, we have identified the type
steps need to be considered to achieve the model by the Box- of time series (stationary or non-stationary) of this data. For
Jenkins method which are temporary detection, parameter identifying, we used the ADF test for this data. When a series
estimation, diagnostic checking and finally, a model is used of cooperative stationary does not appear at any time,
differencing methods can be applied to make it stationaryThe

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Volume 6, Issue 1, January – 2021 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ARMA (P, Q) model can be applied to a stable different time
series and the model it builds is called theARIMA (p, d, q)
model where d means the sequence of differencing. After
difference, we use the ADF test which shows the stationary
time series. The autocorrelation function is a tool used to look
for patterns in data. Specifically, Theautocorrelation function
tells someone the relationship between points separated by
different time systems.
In time series analysis, The Partial Auto-Correlation
Function (PACF) summarizes the partial relationship of the
time series with its own lag values, controlling the time series
values in all short lags.
Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) compares a set of
statistical models with each other. The "best" model would be
one that doesn't fit or over-fit. Akaike's data criteria are
usually calculated with software.
In statistics, The Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)
is a well-known general approach to model selection that
favors more parsimonious models over more complex
ISSN No:-2456-2165
models. It is closely associated with the Akaike information
criterion (AIC). AIC and BIC are Information criteria
methods used to assess model fit while penalizing the number
of estimated parameters.
III. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
The analysis involved in this article has been run on the
R-3.5.0 workstation. This study has developed R routines that
are appropriate to the approach adopted.
A. Unit root test
Figures 3shows the timeseries schemes of
monthlyaverage concentrations of SO2, CO, NOx, O3,
PM2.5,and PM10 at Dhaka city.Table 1 shows the ADF test
result that isapplied to the time series of each pollutant. This
indicates that all P values are 1, 5, and 10% higher than
critical levels of critical levels, and that not all alternative
estimates are stationary.If the hypothesis shows non-
stationary,it does not give the real predicted value. For getting
real predicted values, it should be stationary.

Fig.3 Time series scheme of six pollutants

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Volume 6, Issue 1, January – 2021 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165
Table 1: ADF test result Table 2: Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test after
Variable ADF Lag P-value Alternative differentiating air pollutants concentration
test order hypothesis Variable ADF test Lag P-value Alternative
SO2 -2.7923 3 0.2551 nonstationary order hypothesis
CO -2.4447 3 0.3953 nonstationary SO2 -3.9076 3 0.02018 Stationary
NOx -3.039 3 0.1551 nonstationary CO -3.9126 3 0.0212 Stationary
O3 -2.384 3 0.4198 nonstationary NOx -3.9576 3 0.0181 Stationary
PM2.5 -1.398 3 0.8174 nonstationary O3 -3.9722 3 0.01739 Stationary
PM10 -2.4738 3 0.3835 nonstationary PM2.5 -4.4252 3 0.01 Stationary
PM10 -3.9882 3 0.0167 Stationary
B. Conversion non-stationary to stationary:
To convert the nonstationary time series to stationary C. AIC and BIC criteriato choicethe best demand of ARIMA
series, the best way was to differentiate the data by R-studio (p, d, q) model
software. After differencing, The Augmented Dickey-Fuller AIC and BIC values can be calculated for different
Test show that the time series of all air pollutants was ARIMA (p, d, q) for each time series. Table 3 shows that in
stationary because the p-value was less than 0.05. (Table-2). the AIC criteria, all the errors (RMSE, MAE, MAPE) were
Now we easily predict the future condition of data. lower than the BIC method. We know that the lower the
RMSE value, the better the prediction model. For SO2, the
RMSE for the AIC method is 0.5562% wherein the BIC
method is 0.6749%. In similarly, CO, NOx, O3, PM2.5,and
PM10 showed lower RMSE values in the AIC method than the
BIC method. (Table-3). So,for better prediction of air
pollutants, we used ARMA order (p, d, q) of the AIC method
for forecasting.

Table 3 shows the best order of ARMA (p, d, q) of all pollutants for best forecasting.
Pollutants AIC method BIC method
ARMA order (p, d, q) RMSE MAE MAPE ARMA order RMSE MAE MAPE
(p, d, q)
SO2 (5,1,2) 0.5562 0.4308 5.622 (2,1,1) 0.6749 0.5123 7.0752
CO (1,1,1) 0.115 0.098 5.355 (0,1,1) 0.118 0.099 5.50
NOx (2,0,0) 4.410 3.431 5.85 (1,0,1) 5.6749 0.5123 7.0752
O3 (9,0,9) 0.30 0.24 4.16 (1,1,0) 0.43 0.33 5.59
PM2.5 (2,1,3) 5.29 4.37 5.49 (2,1,1) 5.92 4.50 5.80
(1,0,0)
[10]
PM10 (2,1,2) 8.82 7.295 5.12 (3,1,1) 9.50 7.714 5.37

D. Predictionpresentations of chosen ARIMA models for all
pollutants
We have used the AIC method for better forecasting
rather than the BIC method. The best ARMA order for SO2
was (5,1,2) which givesa better prediction plot. We also used
ARMA order (2,1,1) from the BIC method. But this plot was
not suitable for than AIC method. Table 4 shows that the
average of SO2 will be maximum in February and minimum
in September for both years. For CO, the best ARMA order
was (1,1,1) from the AIC method and another order was
(0,1,1). Table 4 shows that the monthly average of CO will be
maximum in January and minimum in December for both
years. For NOx, the best ARMA order was (2,0,0) from the
AIC method and another order was (1,0,1). Table 4 shows
thatthe monthly average of NOx will be maximum in July
and minimum in January for 2021.For O3, the best ARMA
order was (9,0,9) from the AIC method and another order was
(1,1,0). Table 4 shows that the monthly average of O3 will be
maximum in June and minimum in January in 2021.For
PM2.5, the best ARMA order was (2,1,3) (1,0,0) [10] from
AIC method and another order was (2,1,1). Table 4 shows
that the monthly average of PM2.5will be maximum in
February and minimum in December in 2021.For PM10, the
best ARMA order was (2,1,2) from the AIC method and
another order was (3,1,1). Table 4 shows that the monthly
average of PM10 will be maximum in May and minimum in
January in 2021.

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Volume 6, Issue 1, January – 2021 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165
Table4 Predicted values of 2020 and 2021 for six pollutants
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SO2 2020 17.07 17.58 17.57 17.44 17.37 17.08 16.77 16.74 16.54 16.56 16.69 16.76
(ppb)
2021 16.89 17.13 17.05 17.11 17.09 17.00 16.95 16.90 16.81 16.83 16.82 16.83
(ppb)
CO 2020 3.23 3.23 3.22 3.18 3.09 3.03 2.93 2.87 2.84 2.79 2.73 2.68
(ppm)
2021 2.65 2.62 2.58 2.55 2.53 2.50 2.48 2.45 2.44 2.42 2.40 2.39
(ppm)
NOx 2020 74.48 76.64 77.09 76.08 74.02 71.39 68.64 66.18 64.29 63.11 62.68 62.91
(ppb)
2021 63.64 64.70 65.86 66.96 67.86 68.47 68.76 68.75 68.51 68.10 67.61 67.13
(ppb)
O3 2020 5.38 5.94 6.19 6.57 6.93 6.98 6.91 6.88 6.55 6.18 6.12 6.04
(ppb)
2021 6.06 6.35 6.67 6.83 7.20 7.34 7.27 7.30 7.07 6.82 6.70 6.66
(ppb)
PM2.5 2020 172 173 175 174 164 156 146 136 127 121 118 121
(ug/m3)
2021 124 125 124 120 113 104 111 94 84 76 72 70
(ug/m3)
PM10 2020 285.9 301.7 315.3 324.1 326.8 323.5 316.2 307.5 300.5 297.7 300.4 308.6
(ug/m3)
2021 320.7 334.2 346.5 355.1 358.8 357.4 352.3 345.7 340 337.5 339.4 345.9
(ug/m3)

E. Accuracy of observed value versus the predicted value of
NOx
Figure 6 shows how accurate the predicted value was.
For calculating the accuracy rate, we observed the data of
2015, 2016, and forecasted data of 2017, 2018, and 2019.
Though we knew the data of 2017,2018 and 2019,the
accuracy rate for SO2, NOx, O3, CO, PM2.5,and PM10 was
about 89%, 85%, 80%, 83%, 81%, and 92%.

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Volume 6, Issue 1, January – 2021 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165

Fig.4 ACF and PACF plot after differenced series

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Volume 6, Issue 1, January – 2021 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165

Fig.5 Prediction of 2 years (2020 to 2021) monthly data of six air pollutants by using AIC method and BIC method.

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Volume 6, Issue 1, January – 2021 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165

Fig.6 Observed value vs predicted value plot (accuracy of prediction)

IV.CONCLUSION numerical modeling for air quality prediction through the

This study representsaarithmeticalanalysisand
enquiryof six pollutants of surrounding air quality of Dhaka,
Bangladesh. The ARIMA model is used to analyze the Air
pollutants and to predict the future condition of pollutants in
Dhaka city. In this study, Daily data of 5 years (2015 to
2019) were used to show the relationship between real data
and predicted data and to forecast the future condition of air
pollutants. This paper subsidizes to the fiction
by combining the benefits of random statistical analysis and
Box-Jenkins methodology (ARIMA model). Specifically,
we employ ARIMA for the weekly and monthly forecast for
different air pollutants in Dhaka city. Overall, it was shown
the ARIMA approach isan appropriate tool for examining
air pollution levels in small urban areas. A comparison
between the values predicted and observed by the models
for Changsha suggests that this model can be used reliably
to predict noise air pollution in other cities in terms of vector
road data and some weather parameters are available. This
paper also verifies that the predicted result is right. In

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Volume 6, Issue 1, January – 2021 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165
summary, The ARIMA model employed in statement is a [11]. M. A. Rouf, M.Nasiruddinb, A. M. S Hossainb and
very important tool in observation and dominant the air M. S.Islama, “Trend of Particulate Matter PM 2.5 and
quality condition. It is helpful to need fast action before PM 10 in Dhaka City, Bangladesh”,J. Sci. Ind. Res.
the things worsen at the tip of the day. There 46(3), 389-398, 2011
in case, higher model performance is crucial to [12]. J. H. Seinfeld and S.N. Pandis, “Atmospheric
understand sensible airquality statement. Moreover, the chemistry and physics: from air pollution to climate
pollutants should in thought within the analysis of change”, John Wiley & Sons, NJ, US,2006.
pollution information. [13]. O. P. Tripathi, S. G.Jennings, C. D.O’Dowd, L.
Coleman, S. Leinert, B. O’Leary, “ Statistical
ACKNOWLEDGMENT analysis of eight surface ozone measurement series
for various sites in Ireland”, Journal of Geophysical
The authors acknowledge financial and logistic Research, 115, D19302,2010.
support from Sustainable Environment Bangladesh [14]. I. Kayes, S.A. Shahriar and K. Hasan, “The
(SEB),Dhaka, Bangladesh. relationships betweenmeteorological parameters and
air pollutants inan urban environment”,Global J
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