ABSTRACT

There will discussion of the

natural hazards that threaten
the city of Seattle and
learning what the city will
do to mitigate when these
events occur.

Deborah Amezcua
Natural Disasters 1700

NATURAL HAZARDS IN SEATTLE,

WASHINGTON
 INTRODUCTION

Seattle, Washington is located in the Pacific Northwest Region. According to U.S.

Census data released in 2019, the city of Seattle home to 753,675 people, making it the 15th-

largest in the United States. It is such a beautiful place it makes sense why so many people live

there. Seattle is surrounded by trees, water and the city life. Although Seattle is a beautiful place

to live, there are many natural hazards that threaten the city. “This region ranks number two in

the country in terms of the number of hazards we face, which includes winter storms, landslides,

flooding and earthquakes.

The City of Seattle has

identified 18 hazards that

carry the greatest risk to

(2)
the city.” These are the

18 hazards that can affect

the City of Seattle:

Attacks, Disease/Pandemic

Influenza, Earthquakes, Excessive Heat, Fires, Floods, Hazardous Material Incidents,

Infrastructure Failures, Landslides, Power Outages, Social Unrest, Snow/ Ice and Extreme Cold,

Cyber Attack and Disruption, Transportation Incidents, Tsunamis and Seiches, Unreinforced

Masonry Buildings, Volcano Hazards, and Windstorms. The main ones that will be focused on

will be earthquakes, floods, tsunamis and seiches, and lastly volcano hazards.

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 EARTHQUAKES

Off the coast of Washington, there lies the Cascadia Fault. This fault is called a

subduction zone, this type of plate tectonic boundary is caused by compressional forces as the

tectonic plates collide together forcing one plate to rise above the other. Earthquakes can be

destructive no matter the type of plate tectonic boundary, but the subduction zone is a dangerous

one because it causes megathrust earthquakes. These types of earthquakes can also cause

tsunamis and explosive volcanoes, which will be discussed later. “The Cascadia Subduction

Zone (CSZ) "megathrust" fault is a 1,000 km long dipping fault that stretches from Northern

Vancouver Island to Cape Mendocino

California. It separates the Juan de Fuca and

North America plates. New Juan de Fuca plate

is created offshore along the Juan de Fuca

ridge. The Juan de Fuca plate moves toward,

and eventually is shoved beneath, the continent

(North American plate). At depths shallower

than 30 km or so, the CSZ is locked by friction

while strain slowly builds up as the subduction

forces act, until the fault's frictional strength is exceeded, and the rocks slip past each other along

the fault in a "megathrust" earthquake. The fault's frictional properties change with depth, such

that immediately below the locked part is a strip (the "Transition Zone") that slides in "slow slip

events" that slip a few cm every dozen months or so. This relieves the plate boundary stresses

there, but adds to the stress on the locked part of the fault. Below the transition zone geodetic

evidence suggests that the fault slides continuously and silently at long term plate slip rate. From

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its surface trace offshore to a depth of possibly 5 km, all remote from land, observations are few

and it remains unknown whether the fault is stuck or slipping silently. Great Subduction Zone

earthquakes are the largest earthquakes in the world, and are the only source zones that can

produce earthquakes greater than M8.5. The CSZ has produced magnitude 9.0 or greater

earthquakes in the past, and undoubtedly will in the future.” (3) This subduction zone affects not

only Washington, but Vancouver and Oregon as well. Research geophysicists have done multiple

studies and research to order to come up with a mitigation plan for a “worst case scenario”. They

have come up with a 3D study where they calculated what natural hazards would occur and their

severity. Even though the USGS estimates a 10-14% probability of a M9 earthquake happening

in the next 50 years scientists want to be prepared. This study is called “3-D Simulations of M9

Earthquakes on the Cascadia Megathurst: Methodology and Results” they created seismograms

that would occur if a M9 earthquake occurred at the Cascadia subduction zone- they created

simulations of what would happen to buildings and predict liquefaction and landslides from the

shaking. They used evidence from previous smaller earthquakes to create these simulations.

There is another fault line that the

City of Seattle is affected by and that is the

Seattle Fault. The Seattle fault zone is one of

a series of major faults that cut across the

Puget Sound basin. This fault is also a

subduction fault. “The Seattle fault zone is a

complex zone that accommodates north-south

shortening. Dominant slip is south side up on

south-dipping faults, producing the Seattle

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uplift. The zone also includes north-dipping reverse faults, such as the Toe Jam Hill fault and

Waterman Point fault.”(5) This fault can also cause landslides, tsunamis and fires. Scientists don’t

expect this fault to be an M9. The last earthquake to occur was in 2001 and it was a M6.7.

Scientists expect the biggest magnitude on the fault to be M7.5. The difference between the

Seattle fault and the Cascadia fault is that the Seattle fault is a crustal quake so the shaking

produced from the Seattle fault will be much smaller than the Cascadia fault, but nonetheless

they will both cause destruction. “An earthquake on the Seattle Fault poses the greatest risk to

Seattle because: 1. The Seattle Fault Zone extends east-west through the middle of the city. 2. A

Seattle Fault quake could be as large as M7.5, 160 but less than M7.0 is more probable. 3. The

most recent Seattle Fault earthquake was about 1,100 years ago; 4. The Seattle Fault has been

active about three or four times in the past 3,000 years. Megathrust earthquakes are the greatest

risk to the broader west coast region. A megathrust earthquake could reach M9.0+ and affect an

area from Canada to northern California. A Cascadia megathrust earthquake could rank as one of

the largest earthquakes ever recorded, but because Seattle is several hundred miles from the

source seismic waves would weaken slightly before they reach Seattle. Shaking would be violent

and prolonged, but not as intense as in a Seattle Fault quake.” (6)

Since scientists cannot predict when an earthquake will hit, there isn’t much time to find

safety once it finally does hit. The City of Seattle has come up with some ways people can

prepare for when an earthquake hit. Develop a plan with the household, in case meeting at home

isn’t a possibility- have a designated meeting place, write down emergency contact information

and ensure everyone in the household has it, have nonperishable food stored and emergency

water, ensure that each person in the household has a “Go bag” which includes a change of

clothes, batteries, a flashlight, matches and a first aid kit. Experts say that a household should

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have supplies that will last two weeks, because with how many people live in this region, it will

potentially take that long for help to come. Once an earthquake does hit and there is access to

one’s home it is important to shut off gas lines and have a provider come and inspect it before

turning it back on. Next, learn to turn off the water, during a disaster, water is valuable and

should be used only when necessary. Another thing people should do is strap down big furniture;

this will prevent the heavy furniture from crushing anyone in the household. Lastly, figure out

when the building one resides in was built. “Prior to 1980, building codes did not require

builders to secure houses to their foundations. This does not mean that every house built before

1980 is "unsecured", only that it was not a requirement. If your home is not properly secured, it

may be at increased risk of "slipping" off the foundation during a major earthquake. Retrofitting

involves bolting your home to its foundation and providing sheer/pony wall strength. The goal is

to increase the structural integrity but does not mean that your home is "earthquake proof" (there

is no such thing). Retrofitting does increase the chance that your home will withstand the shaking

and be intact following an earthquake. The good news is that wood framed construction, which is

the primary building material in our area, performs well during earthquakes.” (2) 

TSUNAMIS AND SEICHES

With the type of earthquake faults that threaten Seattle- based on its geological location-

those earthquakes can also produce tsunamis and seiches. There are three faults that can cause a

tsunami, those include the Seattle fault, Southern Whidbey fault, and the Cascadia fault.

Scientists believe that the Seattle fault will be the most detrimental. There is evidence from the

Seattle fault that occurred about 1,000 years ago that caused a tsunami that was 16 feet tall. The

Southern Whidbey fault and the Cascadia fault are more likely to create a seiche. “Seiches are

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vertical waves in which the largest vertical oscillations are at each end of a body of water with

very small oscillations at the center point of the wave. In other words, it is the waves created by

the sloshing of water in an enclosed or partially enclosed waterbody, like water sloshing in a

bathtub. Pushes from a seismic wave or air pressure cause the water to rock back and forth.

Under the right conditions, resonance builds up wave height just like pumping one’s legs to

make a swing go higher. Since larger bodies of water usually have longer frequencies, it takes

longer frequency waves traveling through the ground to create seiches in them. Due to the

mechanics of an earthquake, areas close to the epicenter shake at high frequencies. Therefore,

seiches tend to occur far from earthquake epicenters. The biggest danger is from subduction zone

or megathrust earthquakes that cause powerful, low frequency ground waves.” (6)

Elliott Bay and Union Lake are most prone to seiches due to its location and its

formation. Below are photos that show the effect of these three faults that will cause powerful

shaking. As shown in the photo one can see that the shaking will be so powerful to cause these

tsunamis and seiches affecting the dark orange areas.

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 Since these tsunamis and seiches are created from earthquakes (and landsides), there will

not be a whole lot of time to get to safety. Once an earthquake hits, it is important to know how

one’s residence will be affected. It is important to get to higher ground immediately. Preferrable

on top floor of a building or roof. Due to the fast movement of the water, there will be a lot of

debris that can cause not only a whole lot of damage to infrastructure but also have the strength

to seriously injure or kill someone. As one prepares for an earthquake, one should do the same

for a tsunami. Have food, water, first aid & a change of clothes ready to go.

FLOODS

All of the events discussed above have a chain reaction to each other. But there are other

natural events that can cause flooding in Seattle. Aside from tsunamis and seiches there are three

types of floods that affect the city which are: urban, costal and riverine flooding. “Coast flooding

happens during storms and especially high tides (called ‘king tides’). When the two coincide, the

consequences are more severe. Sea level rise will make this problem worse. Riverine floods

happen mostly along Seattle’s creeks. The South Park neighborhood is in a 500-year floodplain.

Most of Seattle’s floodplains are very narrow. Urban flooding occurs when heavy rain

overwhelms the drainage system. Seattle’s drainage systems were designed and originally built

for longer duration and lower intensity rainstorms. Sewer and drainage flooding may occur

during large storm events in the Urban Flood identified areas of the accompanying map based on

historical information, field investigations and technical analysis.” (7) Riverine flooding occurs

slowly, therefore it gives those affected a chance to evacuate. The Seattle government have

constructed dams, levees, and bulkheads to help reduce flooding in areas that are prone to floods.

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 VOLCANOES

There are quite a few active volcanoes in the state of Washington. If any of the five

volcanoes go off, Seattle is too far to be affected from any blasts and pyroclastic flows. The only

one that has the potential affect Seattle will be Mount Rainer, but it is very unlikely. Looking at

Mount Rainer’s history, it produces some of the biggest lahars ever seen on earth. Given Mount

Rainer’s history, the lahars reached Tacoma and

flooded the outskirts of Seattle.

“The City of Seattle depends on power, water,

and transportation resources located in the Cascades

and Eastern Washington where ash is more likely to

fall. Seattle City Light operates dams directly east of

Mt. Baker and in Pend Oreille County in eastern

Washington. Seattle’s water comes from two

reservoirs located on the western slopes of the Central

Cascades, so they are outside the probable path of

ashfall. o If heavy ash were to fall over Seattle it

would create health problems, paralyze the

transportation system, destroy many mechanical objects, endanger the utility networks and cost

millions of dollars to clean up. Ash can be very dangerous to aviation. Lahars are mudflows and

debris flows that originate from the slopes of a volcano and travel down river systems. Mt.

Rainier is the only volcano connected to Seattle via a river system. Lahars from Mt. Rainier have

buried the Kent Valley in the past, but there is no evidence a lahar has reached Seattle in the past

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10,000 years. A Washington Department of Natural Resources analysis states that it is possible

for a lahar to reach Seattle but would be extremely unlikely. Seattle faces vulnerabilities from a

lahar reaching the Kent Valley. Interstate 405, as well as oil and natural gas pipelines, water

lines, power lines, and sewer mains that serve Seattle all cross the potential lahar area in the Kent

Valley. This area also hosts many of Seattle’s major food distributors. Lahars can cause floods

that transport massive amounts of sedimentation farther downstream. In a Mt. Rainier eruption, if

lahars reach as far as the Kent Valley, Seattle’s Duwamish Valley could experience post-lahar

sedimentation.” (6)

If an eruption does occur, one should prepare like they would for an earthquake. It might

take days or weeks for the ash to clear up and get cleaned up. Having plenty of clean water and

food will be essential.

CONCLUSION

There are many hazards that can affect the city of Seattle. Natural events can occur at any

moment and unfortunately, they can’t always be predicted. It is imperative that people prepare

for catastrophic events. Plenty of food, water and tools in order to keep warm are essentials.

Staying educated and up to date with natural events will be important in keeping oneself and

those around as safe as possible once these events strike.

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REFERENCE PAGE:

1. https://www.census.gov/search-results.html?searchType=web&cssp=SERP&q=seattle
%20population%202020
2. https://www.seattle.gov/emergency-management/hazards#:~:text=Seattle%20is%20a
%20beautiful%20place,%2C%20landslides%2C%20flooding%20and%20earthquakes.
3. https://pnsn.org/outreach/earthquakesources/csz
4. https://11ncee.org/images/program/papers/11NCEE-000066.pdf
5. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/cfusion/qfault/show_report_AB_archive.cfm?
fault_id=570&section_id=#:~:text=The%20Seattle%20fault%20zone%20is,Island%2C
%20and%20the%20Kitsap%20Peninsula.
6. https://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/Emergency/PlansOEM/SHIVA/SHIVA
v7.0.pdf
7. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?
appid=0489a95dad4e42148dbef571076f9b5b

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