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Natural Hazard Threat Assessment:

Charleston, South Carolina

SCI-142-701

Professor Cunningham

Paige Barrow

September 29th 2022

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Abstract

Natural Hazard Threat Assessment: Charleston, South Carolina

Charleston is the largest and oldest city located in South Carolina. As seen in figure 1

below, the city lies just south of the geographical midpoint of South Carolina's coastline

on Charleston Harbor, an inlet of the Atlantic Ocean formed by the confluence of

the Ashley, Cooper, and Wando rivers (Charleston, South Carolina 2022). According to the U.S.

Census Bureau 2021, Charleston has a population of 151,612 (U.S. Census Bureau quickfacts:

United States). Charleston has a humid subtropical climate with mild winters, hot humid

summers, and significant rainfall each year (Charleston, South Carolina 2022).

Figure 1. Shows the major rivers of Charleston and Charleston Harbor.

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Taking a look at Charleston, South Carolina, there is a high potential for hazards such as

earthquakes, hurricanes, and tornados. Charleston is not near any major fault lines. South

Carolina, however, is located in the middle of the North American tectonic plate, which is called

a passive margin (scemd.org). Geologically, Charleston lies in one of the most seismically active

areas in the eastern united states (scemd.org).

EARTHQUAKES

South Carolina lies on a numerous fault lines and has a significant amount of seismic

activity, figure 2. The rocks under the South Carolina coastal plain are very broken up with deep

cracks, causing an extremely weakened fault area. Even though these faults have been measured,

mapped, and estimated, they are not the only cause of earthquakes. Many minor earthquakes

occur each year in the entire state of South Caroline and major earthquakes are rare. However,

there is still potential for one to occur and no reliable way of predicting when one will happen.

One of the more active areas of earthquakes in the state is Charleston and surrounding areas.

“Approximately 70% of all earthquakes in the state occur in the coastal plain with the most

clustered around three areas of the state: Ravenel-Adams Run-Hollywood, Middleton-Place-

Summerville, and Bowman” (scemd.org). The largest recorded southeastern earthquake was in

Charleston, with the effects being felt in the surrounding states.

A massive 7.3 magnitude earthquake was in Charleston in 1886, when the upper crust

rocks were strained and a fault ruptured. In 60 seconds, the Charleston earthquake caused 60

deaths, numerous injuries, economic losses of $23 million (1978 dollars), and psychological and

social disruption over an area extending 120 miles from the epicenter, encompassing
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communities such as Augusta, Georgia, and Aiken, South Carolina (USGS). The epicenter of the

1886 earthquake is seen in figure 9 below. For the next 3 years, more than 400 aftershocks

occurred in the Charleston area, adding to the damage and social disruption (USGS). Figure 4

shows the connection points for intensity of the 1886 earthquake.

Figure 2. Shows the history of earthquakes and fault structure of South Carolina.
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Figure 3. Shows fault zones labeled for Charleston

Figure 4. Shows Isoseismal from the 1886 Charleston Earthquake.

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According to the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale, seen below in figure 5. An earthquake

over 7.0 can cause damage to major structures, destroying wooden and masonry buildings,

derailing trains, and debris thrown into the air. Today, an earthquake similar to the one in

Charleston in 1886 would cause major damage to the city and surrounding areas. Figures 7 and 8

below show some of the damage from the 1886 earthquake.

Figure 5. The Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) Scale

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Consequences to Charleston

Secondary effects following an earthquake pose more potential hazards to an area. The

1886 Charleston earthquake experienced an aftershock 2 minutes later and smaller ones for the

next 3 years. Other effects from this earthquake were fires due to things such as ruptured gas

lines, ruptured utility lines such as water and sewer, and flooding from a cracked dam. Damage

estimates were estimated at over $8 million (scemd.org). Charleston is also at high risk for

liquefaction in the event of an earthquake, see figure 6 below. Liquefaction takes place when

loosely packed, water-logged sediments at or near the ground surface lose their strength in

response to strong ground shaking. Liquefaction occurring beneath buildings and other structures

can cause major damage during earthquakes (What is liquefaction?).

Figure 6. Shows hazard potential for South Carolina’s Coastal Plain

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Response

In the event Charleston has an earthquake, the city has a very elaborate response plan.

They have been monitoring and mapping geological structures in response to the 1886

earthquakes. While unable to reliably predict when and where they can have an idea of the areas

that could be affected and how. SCGS is now conducting studies to evaluate the geologic

response to earthquake-induced motion in an attempt to help reduce the risk to lives and property

(South Carolina Department of Natural Resources - Geology Section). The state evaluated all

cities and the possibility of damage to structures, access to critical facilities, and transportation

routes. The damage to utility systems in the event of an earthquake is significant. Following the.

M 7.3 earthquake, several components of the electric power, water, sewage, and

telecommunication systems will be rendered useless (scemd.org). With the damage to utility

systems, residents could be weeks or months without essentials such as water. The state has

calculated an estimation of causalities based on the time of day of a potential earthquake, with

afternoons being the highest risk. “It is estimated that the M 7.3 earthquake event occurring in

the afternoon will cause the most impact, causing about 900 deaths, 8,000 injuries (severity 2 and

3), over 36,000 minor injuries (severity 1) (scemd.org). The city would immediately begin

restoring roadways, airways, and other routes of transportation. Due to infrastructure and

communication being damaged, a large population of the community could end up isolated.
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Figure 7. Shows damages to Charleston after the 1886 earthquake

Figure 8. Sand Blow Crater from the 1886 earthquake

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Figure 9. Location of the 1886 earthquake epicenter

HURRICANES

Each year several hurricanes stir up in the Atlantic Ocean and start a path toward the U.S.

Very rarely, does a major hurricane make a direct hit. Along South Carolina’s coast, there have

been several major hurricanes, including Hugo 1989, Gracie 1959, and Hazel 1954. Charleston is

surrounded by an abundance of water,, putting it at high risk of storm surges and flooding.

The most historic hurricane that made landfall just east of Charleston was category 4

Hugo in 1989, see figure 10. Hugo was steered across the Atlantic by the east-southeasterly flow

around the southern edge of subtropical high pressure over the western Atlantic (weather.gov).

Hugo hit Charleston with 108 mph winds and a storm surge of 20ft. There were 49 recorded

deaths and $7 billion dollars in damages. It was one of the most damaging hurricanes recorded
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of its time. Hugo damaged roughly 75% of the homes in Charleston. Figure 11 below shows the

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale and the threat each category hurricane has.

Figure 10. Hurricane Hugo hits Charleston, SC on September 22, 1989.

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Figure 10. Shows how the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale classifies hurricanes as categories

Risk to Charleston

A major hurricane straight to Charleston is a rare occurrence. Yet the city is still at high

risk for experiencing hurricanes that can cause the area to experience storm surges, flooding,

high winds, and tornados. Figure 11 shows how rough the storm surges can get. During summer

and early fall possess the greatest risk of major hurricanes to Charleston. Densely populated

areas, especially during peak tourist seasons, coupled with generally low elevations, significantly

increase the cities vulnerability (City of North Charleston, South Carolina).

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Figure 11. Storm surge and waves brought by Hurricane Hugo.

Consequences

Damages from a hurricane can be significant, destruction to property, beaches, roads, and

life. As seen from hurricane Hugo, over 100 homes were structurally damaged or completely

gone and 80% of homes had roof damage. Hurricanes even off the coast of Charleston have a

risk of causing high surf and dangerous rip currents. Hurricanes come with high winds, rains,

tornados, and several other factors that can be catastrophic. Figures 12-14 below show the

devastating damage left behind after Hugo to businesses, homes, and bridges.
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Figure 12. Collapsed brick building after Hugo

Figure 13. Damages to homes and roofs after Hugo

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Figure 14. Collapsed bridge after Hurricane Hugo

Response

Listed on South Carolina’s Emergency Management Division is “Know Your Zone.”

This interactive map lets residents know hurricane evacuation zones and how vulnerable they are

to storm surges, see figure 15 listed below. After hurricane Hugo, Charleston learned about

structural issues in the construction of building roofs and reconsidered how buildings should be

built. When there is a threat of a hurricane, the city will issue mandatory evacuations to make

sure people get to safety. Citizens are given enough time to secure any loose items outside and

board up their windows to attempt to protect their property.

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Figure 15. Interactive “Know Your Zone” Map for Charleston and surrounding areas.

Tornados

The chance of having a tornado in Charleston is increasing. South Carolina has averaged

11 tornadoes each year since 1950, resulting in 47 fatalities and 1057 injuries (City of North

Charleston, South Carolina). Figure 17 below, shows the increasing nature of tornados by year

since 1950. The types of tornados here are typically weak and short. Figure 18 shows that the

tornados that have occurred in Charleston are very rarely, if ever, higher than an EF 3 rating.

The last major outbreak of tornados was on April 13th, 2020. When 29 EF 1 tornados occurred, it

caused $150 million in damage and killed 9 people. The last major occurrence before that was in

1938 when 6 tornados broke out within 1 hour. Figure 16 shows two paths of tornados to the

area. This system of tornados was brought on by a tropical storm off the coast of Florida. There

was little to no warning during this outbreak and it resulted in 32 deaths, 100 people injured,

over 100 damaged buildings and 196 buildings destroyed.

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Figure 16. Two tracked tornado paths from the 1938 outbreak

Risk to Charleston

South Carolina ranks twenty-sixth in the United States in the number of tornados per

square mile (City of North Charleston, South Carolina). Previously, there was little to no way of

warning people of a tornado. However, with the advancement of technology and practically

everyone has a cell phone on them, it has gotten easier to warn people. Still, tornados can come

with little to no warning and be life-threatening and destructive. Typically, tornados in

Charleston hold the greatest risk in the spring from March to May, but they can occur anytime

and anywhere. Figure 19 below shows the number of tornados by month, with the highest

months being April and May. When more hurricanes occur in the summer and fall seasons, this

can result in more tornados in the off-season.

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Figure 17. Shows the total number of tornados in Charleston since 1950

Figure 18. Shows EF rating of tornados since 1950

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Figure 19. Shows the number of tornados by month in Charleston

Consequences

Without much warning, there can be significant damage to life and property. In 1938,

detection of severe weather was not yet developed. People standing near the city market in

Charleston were crushed and killed by falling bricks. Figure 20 below shows the significant

damages to the city market area. Tornados spin debris into funnel clouds into the air and send it

flying. The 1938 tornado outbreak had wood shingles thrown into the sky and slicing into things.

People that were in their homes were not properly prepared to be in the safest location of the

house, so they ended up being crushed by their homes. Tornados also bring the risk of hail which

can significantly damage property.

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Figure 20. Damages to City market in Charleston after 1938 outbreak

Response

In the event Charleston has a tornado, there is a 4 phase emergency management program

to mitigate, prepare, respond, and recover. With the advances in technology, the city can send out

radio alerts, televised alerts, text alerts, and even social media alerts. Due to advanced weather

tracking, it is also easier to track the path of a potential tornado. Even so, tornados can stir up

quickly and these alerts might only give people a few minutes to get to safety.
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Summary

In conclusion, after much research on natural hazards that have impacted Charleston, the

associated risk, and the response of the city, I would still consider this a place to live. While

earthquakes possess a relatively high risk, the number of occurrences of major earthquakes is

low. A major hurricane is rarely a direct hit and while there is a risk to property and life, there is

enough time given to evacuate to keep individuals safe. Something to keep in mind is the

potential impact on property and life that a hurricane can cause and ways to prepare. The main

concern I would have living in Charleston is the threat of tornados. However, even though

tornados have occurred numerous times, the number of fatalities that have occurred is extremely

low. The city has necessary plans in place to assist citizens in the event of a natural threat from

evacuation zones to their own emergency response team. The city’s response has led to the

community being resilient and able to recover quickly from natural hazards.
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References

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City of North Charleston, South Carolina. (n.d.). Retrieved September 26, 2022, from

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South Carolina Department of Natural Resources - Geology Section. (n.d.). Earthquake

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