DELA PEÑA, Aiyesha C.

Practical Research
STEM 204 2020 - Term 1

Normal Distribution Application in the Pandemic

by Aiyesha Dela Peña

In Statistics, the continuous probability function

that depicts how the estimations of a variable are distributed
is what we call the Normal distribution, or also known as the
Gaussian distribution.

Errors are the main reason why this bell-shaped

curve existed. In the 17th century, some scientists, including
Galileo noticed how errors were symmetrically distributed
and it seems that little error happened more constantly than
huge errors. This led to the birth of different and varying
hypothesis regarding why errors occur in that manner. Finally, in 1809, mathematicians Gauss and Adrain discovered that
these errors are following a normal distribution (Lane, n.d.). However, it’s still an open book whether who really discovered
it, since, some books say that this distribution was first utilized by Abraham De Moire in 1733 as a development from the
binomial distribution.

Its first application was in astronomical observations. Normal distribution conforms to many natural phenomena
since oftentimes, natural and social sciences use it to a great extent. It is also very beneficial upon evaluating statistical data
that matters in everyday living. We can conclude that normal distribution can be applied in various practical fields that
help experts evaluate and understand data much easier.

One of the many practical applications of this statistical distribution in our era is in the field of health sciences.
This chosen application of the normal distribution is very timely and relevant, for the reason that it’s in line with the study
of the occurring pandemic or the novel coronavirus. Based on researches in this field, researchers used normal distributions
in many ways including propagation analysis and prediction of the coronavirus; time course of recovery from the diseases;
discovery of evidence for pre-symptomatic transmission of coronavirus; assessing potential of non-pharmaceutical
interventions; and a lot more. All applications in this field have a common denominator of helping health allies and
scientists to further assess interventions to help the world ease the virus and stop the pandemic.

A study in India conducted by Bhatti, et.al. (2020), entitled “Incubation Period and Reproduction Number for
novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections in India,” believed that two of the most important parameters of the virus to
be evaluated are (1) incubation period; and (2) reproduction number, owing to the fact that these variables take part with
the estimation of the transmission potential of the virus, henceforth, helps to control it. The researchers expected five
kinds of distributions to determine the incubation period. The date of exposure and date of confirmation of the diseases
were the variables of the curve. Based on the results, the researchers concluded that the normal distribution curve produced
the best fit for the data given, showing an incubation period of 6.93 as the mean and median. Upon the analysis of the

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DELA PEÑA, Aiyesha C. Practical Research
STEM 204 2020 - Term 1

results, they saw that the incubation period in India seems to be longer (1-22 days) in comparison to the data given by the
World Health Organization (2-12 days), and United States Centre for Disease Control (2-14 days). Through the use of the
normal distribution, researchers provided contributions to their CDC by showing accurate data that affects the potential
transmission of the virus and therefore helps them to conduct and implement the right mitigations.

Using normal distribution seems to be the best option for evaluating the incubation period of the virus, since the
data of another study conducted by Bouchnita and Jebrane (2020) in Calabria, Italy and Wuhan, China, also follow a
normal distribution curve. The objective of this study, which is seen in the title itself, “A hybrid multi-scale model of
COVID-19 transmission dynamics to assess the potential of non-pharmaceutical interventions,” is to create different
models of transmission alongside with different parameters to justify the potential of non-pharmaceutical interventions
implemented worldwide such as, social distancing and lockdowns. Here, the incubation period was sampled through the
distribution and was fitted using clinical data. The values of the mean of the symptom onset of the patient to
hospitalization, getting discharged, and even death was assessed. The resulting mean of the distribution is 5.1 days, ranging
from 2-14 days. Through this analysis, the researchers justified the effects of non-pharmaceutical or pharmaceutical
interventions on the exponential growth of the virus.

These are just some of the articles that showed the use of normal distribution as an effective tool in the analysis
of the incubation period of the coronavirus. The ideologies and terminologies mentioned might be complex since
everything is scientific, but the gist of the applications stated is that normal distribution or the Gaussian distribution helped
estimate the length of the incubation period and depicts its implications. In this way, researchers are able to provide specific
measurements to consider when creating interventions to be implemented in the public. It also shares contributions to
other studies focused on controlling the virus to stop the pandemic.

As a conclusion, normal distribution has a lot of practical applications in different fields. It’s not limited to just
answering problems regarding it in the textbooks. Analyzing its applications asserts that it can be applied in daily lives, and
it can help scientists and researchers to address worldwide problems, the extermination of the pandemic, for instance, and
much more crisis.

References:

Azman, A. et al. (2020). The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported
Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application. Annals of Internal Medicine.
Bhatti, V. et al. (2020). Incubation Period and Reproduction Number for novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections in
India . The Preprint Server for Health Sciences.
Bouchita, A. & Jebrane, A. (2020). A hybrid multi-scale model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics to assess the
potential of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals.
Chen, G. et al. (2020). Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19. Infection Disease Modelling, 282-292.
Lane, D. (n.d.). History of Normal Distribution. Retrieved from Online Stat Book:
http://onlinestatbook.com/2/normal_distribution/history_normal.html