LIKHA – PROJECT PROPOSAL

(1) PROJECT PROFILE

Project Title: Application of Exponential Functions in Projecting Future Active
COVID-19 cases
Name of Project Proponent/s: Kenneth Earl B. Paredes
Region: 4B-MIMAROPA Division: Palawan
School: Roxas National Comprehensive High School
Grade Level: 12
Project Duration: One (1) month
Email: kennethearlparedes@gmail.com Contact number: 09319649709
(2) CATEGORY OF RESEARCH (4) THEME
_____Physical Science _____Food safety
_____Life Science _____Water Conservation
_____Robotics and Intelligent Machines _____Renewable Energy
✓ Mathematics and Computational _____Cyber Security
Sciences _____Traffic/Road Congestion
(3) ✓ Health
✓ Individual _____Disaster Mitigation
_____Team _____Agriculture and Environment
_____Others (please specify)
_______________
(5) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The researcher proposed this research because he believes that it will greatly

benefit the community. According to Britannica, in mathematics, an exponential

function is a relationship of the form y=a^x. The general objective of this research

proposal is to utilize exponential functions in projecting future active COVID-19

cases. Exponential functions have several uses in everyday life. Population

increase, exponential decrease, and compound interest are the most essential uses.

The researcher will use the experimental method of research in order to identify the

accuracy of exponential functions and which exponential function is more accurate.

The researcher expects that this proposal will improve forecasting of COVID-19

cases, disease control procedures, and the awareness of people.

(6) INTRODUCTION
(6.1) RATIONALE/SIGNIFICANCE

The researcher proposed this research for it will greatly benefit the community.

To the Department of Health (DOH), this will help in determining the possible

applications of exponential functions in projecting future COVID-19 cases. To the

Rural Health Units (RHUs), this will allow them to implement COVID-19

protocols accordingly. To the Inter-Agency Task Force on Emerging Infectious

Diseases (IATF-EID), this will help them in analysing future epidemics. To future

researchers, this will help them in formulating possible applications of exponential

functions.

(6.2) SCIENTIFIC BASIS/THEORETICAL

FRAMEWORK/MATHEMATICAL THEORY INVOLVED

According to Britannica, in mathematics, an exponential function is a

relationship of the form y=a^x, wherein the independent variable x spanning the

entire real number line as the exponent of a positive number.

(6.3) OBJECTIVES

General: The objective of this research proposal is to utilize exponential functions

in projecting future active COVID-19 cases.

Specific: Specifically, this research proposal aims to know the accuracy of

exponential functions in predicting COVID-19 cases, determine which exponential

function is more accurate, and determine more applications of exponential

functions.

(7) REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE

Exponential functions have several uses in everyday life. Population increase,

exponential decrease, and compound interest are the most essential uses.

Exponential functions have been applied in various disciplines such as finance,

bacterial growth, human population, and spread of virus.

Mahdavi A. et. al (2017) said that for increased flexibility, a new method for

adding an extra parameter to a family of distributions has been presented. The one-

parameter exponential distribution has been studied in depth as a specific instance.

Explicit formulae for the moments, quantiles, mode, moment-generating function,

mean residual lifespan, stochastic orders, order statistics, and expression of the

entropies are all derived for the proposed distribution.

Using the simple exponential growth model, Musa SS et. al (2020) looked at the

first phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Africa between March 1 and April 13,

a2020. We looked at the WHO situation report's publicly available resources to see

how COVID-19 could spread if rigorous health precautions were not maintained.

Torres M. et. al (2020) cited that UP-OCTA team has been monitoring the

disease's spread in different parts of the Philippines. They were able to provide nine

COVID-19 case forecasts utilizing Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered

(SEIR) models and Moving Average models from April 30 to July 23.

(8) METHODOLOGY

The preparations and procedures that will be used in this research includes the

method of research used, data gathering procedures, statistical setups, and sampling

design.

The researcher will use the experimental method of research in order to identify

the accuracy of exponential functions and which exponential function is more

accurate. Alfonso et. al (2000) said that the experimental method is the most
scientific and the most powerful method in the field of science. It also has become

one of the best ways to conduct research in the most productive matter.

The researcher will prepare two (2) setups. A simple ‘y=a^x’ exponential

function will be assigned as Setup 1 wherein y is the projected number of COVID-

19 cases, a is the number of current active cases and x is the reproduction rate. A

logarithmic function will be assigned as Setup 2.

The researcher will use convenience sampling in collecting data for the two (2)

setups as it will allow the researcher to save time and easily manage the research.

After the data will be collected and compiled, they will be tabulated. Analysis of

Variance (ANOVA) will be used as a statistical tool since it provides a test whether

or not the groups of data are related. It will also determine if there is a significant

difference between the setups.

(9) EXPECTED OUTPUTS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS

The researcher expects that this proposal will greatly affect the way local and

national governments measure future cases of COVID-19 and other infectious

diseases. He also believes that this will have a positive impact to the improvement

of disease control procedures, as well as to the awareness of people.

(10) WORK PLAN AND TARGET DELIVERABLES

Activity Planned Proposed Date Target Deliverables
Proposing research June 16, 2022 Research proposal
Implementing the study July 7, 2022 Partial research paper
Proof-reading the study August 4, 2022 Proof-read research paper
Revision of study August 7, 2022 Revised research paper
Final revision of study August 8, 2022 Final research paper

(11) REFERENCES
Torres, Monica et. al. “Forecasting COVID-19 cases in the Philippines using

various mathematical models”,

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.07.20208421v1.full, (2020).

Mahdavi, Abbas. “A new method for generating distributions with an application to

exponential distribution”, Taylor and Francis Online, (2017).

Britannica. “Exponential functions”,

https://www.britannica.com/science/exponential-function, (2020).

Musa, Salihu. “Estimation of exponential growth rate and basic reproduction

number of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Africa”,

https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-020-00718-y, (2020).