Professional Documents
Culture Documents
a delayed coker
A reliability model applied to a coke handling system demonstrates the
benefits of compliance with a preventive maintenance programme
P
etroleum refineries are
increasingly adding
cokers and hydrocrackers
Total customer cost, $
as consequential opportunity
Type I, %
15 60
costs related to lost production
10 40 experienced during unplanned
outages.
5 20
Equipment failure background
Marsulex categorises repairs, or
0 0
65
failures, into four basic types:
75 85 95
• Type I: planned or expected
PM, %
failure
Figure 2 Failure types expected vs PM compliance levels • Type II: unplanned prema-
ture failure
drum heading and unheading poorly maintained equipment. • Type III: incident
systems, the coke pit and the A world-class preventive main- • Type IV: wreck.
coke conveyance areas are tenance (PM) programme is Type I, a planned or expected
highly automated with solids key to delivering a successful failure, is rarely complicated
handling technology that operation, whether a refiner and can be assigned a repair
requires well-trained operators. chooses to self-perform or cost of 1X. Type II, an
The third area is reliability, elects to outsource these unplanned premature failure,
which is the focus of this arti- services. has a cost that typically aver-
cle. Since the coke cutting and ages 3X, or three times that of a
movement business is so Reliability philosophy Type I failure. A Type II failure
mechanically intensive, this is Marsulex’s philosophy of relia- occasionally has additional
an area of high cost with many bility is best described by the costs, such as an operational
opportunities for cost reduc- Maintenance Parabola shown outage. A Type III failure,
tion. Reliability separates the in Figure 1. considered an incident, is a
competition in DCU solids The Maintenance Parabola is premature failure with a typi-
handling and maintenance; an established but subtle cal cost of 6X. Type III failures
however, with the constant concept. The curve shows the often involve an operations
pressure to reduce costs, elimi- relationship between PM loss, or a logistics cost to avoid
nating reliability programmes expenditure and total mainte- an operations loss. Type IV, a
is a short-term fix with long- nance cost. Starting at the left of wreck, is the most severe fail-
term consequences. It is the curve and moving right, as ure. Type IV failures average
Marsulex’s philosophy and PM activity is increased mainte- 9X or greater repair cost versus
experience that reducing the nance costs are reduced, the Type I planned/expected
reliability investment — significantly at first. As PM failures and can include signifi-
namely, scaling back preventive expenditure increases, moving cant premature failures,
maintenance and systems right on the curve, maintenance operations or logistics costs and
investment — can be an expen- cost reductions reach a point of insurance claims.
sive decision in the long run. diminishing returns. To the Figure 2 shows a typical fail-
The “acquisition cost” dollars right of the curve, minimum ure distribution as a function of
saved when bidding on a serv- total maintenance costs begin to PM compliance levels, which
ices contract are insignificant rise with increasing PM expen- were estimated in the develop-
when compared to the total ditures. Marsulex’s philosophy ment of the reliability model.
lifetime cost from unreliable, is to stay focused on delivering The values vary by equipment
Crusher daily PM Task Time min Freq Period Number Total FTE Assigned
Check oil level in sight glass on guard (85 - 140 Super Red) Oil 10 2 D 1 20 0.042 Oper.
Inspect hopper for un-crushables Visual 10 2 D 1 20 0.042 Maint.
Verify all safety guards are in place Visual 15 2 D 1 30 0.063 Maint.
Inspect all mountings for tightness Visual 2 1 D 10 20 0.042 Oper.
Listen for unusual noises; eg, metal to metal, belts slapping Visual 10 2 D 1 20 0.042 Oper.
Inspect crusher for leaks Visual 5 2 D 1 10 0.021 Maint.
Check for excessive vibration Visual 5 2 D 1 10 0.021 Oper.
Table 1
type, but the trend is consist- Preventive maintenance review considered the time value of
ent: increased PM compliance The PM review involved a money. For example, a repair
yields a higher distribution of detailed examination to iden- cost of $5000 with a one-year
Type I failures. Conversely, tify eight key elements. A MTBF frequency, using a net
decreasing PM compliance, or sample PM plan for the coke present value (NPV) method
an ineffective PM programme, crusher outlines this review with a 6% interest rate, would
yields an increased percentage and is shown in Table 1. (Note: be equivalent to an expected
of Type II through Type IV operator-assigned PM is one of 20-year MTBF repair cost of
failures. the most efficient and effective $184 000 instead of the simple
The objective of an effective ways to perform PM activities.) yearly equivalent of $100 000.
PM programme is to reduce Using the NPV method with a
costly and unplanned failures Repair expectation table $100 000 repair cost and 20
by increasing the less expensive The repair expectation table (a years’ MTBF frequency would
preventive and planned main- portion of which is shown in produce a yearly equivalent of
tenance activities. Table 2) uses the same detailed $2718.
equipment list as the PM effort
Reliability study to set realistic goals for repair Detailed review of actual
A company operating a large frequencies and costs. repair cost
coker on the US Gulf Coast was The failures were divided The third element of the study
chosen for a detailed reliability into classes based on mean was a multi-year review of
assessment, with the objective time between failures (MTBF). maintenance repair costs on the
of building and correlating the Generally, the shorter-term DCU used to define and corre-
reliability model of the coke MTBF repairs had lower costs late our model. The key
handling system. The purposes than the longer MTBF repairs. components of the review were
of the study were to examine All losses were evaluated on a the repair cost, the number of
our reliability philosophy, quan- yearly equivalent basis, which failures per year, the cost per
tify site PM compliance, and
determine the relative benefits
Component failure expectations
and costs from the identified
PM compliance levels. The
assessment consisted of a
Equipment list Material cost, MTBF, # similar Repair time, Cost,
detailed review of the preven- $/failure years comp. Mhrs $/y equiv.
tive maintenance programme, Bridge crane
development of an equipment Hold cable $1000 1 2 24 $2000
repair table, a multi-year review Close cable $500 2 4 24 $971
Bearing $2100 4 2 4 $960
of actual maintenance repair Coupling $12 500 5 2 4 $4435
statistics, and development of a Housing $30 000 20 1 2 $816
Monte Carlo reliability model,
relating PM compliance to
maintenance repair cost. Table 2
Table 4 Table 6
Probability, %
with no Type IV wrecks. 60
Referencing the projected repair
distributions shown earlier, the
40
model suggests 90% PM
compliance.
20
Development of Monte Carlo
PM model 0
A statistically based Monte 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Carlo method analysis was MTBF, years
undertaken to expand and
enhance the site study and to
examine all of the cost compo- Figure 3 Predictive DCU model assumed probability of failure vs PM investment
nents affected by PM
compliance levels. safety, repairs, frequency PM and training, increase as
Using data collected from the increase from expected, sever- percentage PM compliance
study, specifically the failure ity from expected, operations increases. The third cost
expectation table and historical and logistics, and spare parts. element (repairs) remains
reliability information, site- The first two cost elements, constant regardless of PM
specific failure cost tables were
developed. A Weibull analysis
was then used to simulate fail-
ure frequencies at varying PM 3750
Spares
compliance levels. The relation- 3500
Oper.
ship assumed that, as PM 3250
Sever.
compliance was reduced, the 3000 MTBF
failure frequency widened and Repairs
2750
the MTBF was reduced or
Maintenance expense
Train
2500
shifted left, as shown by the PM
failure distribution curves in 2250
Total
Figure 3. 2000
The results of the model runs, 1750
which simulated numerous 20- 1500
year cycles, are shown in
1250
Figure 4. These results were
based on actual maintenance 1000
schedules, failure rates and 750
costs from the DCU reliability 500
study. 250
0
Explanation of model results 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
The chart shown in Figure 4 PM, %
uses the following cost catego-
ries to calculate overall
maintenance expense: preven- Figure 4 Predictive working model of DCU total maintenance costs vs PM
tive maintenance, training and compliance