YOUTUBE MOVING AVE.

WEEK SALES 3 MA ERROR /ERROR/ ERROR^2 /%ERROR/

1 39
2 44
3 40
4 45 41 4 4 16 8.89
5 38 43 -5 5 25 13.16
6 43 41 2 2 4 4.65
7 39 42 -3 3 9 7.69
8 40 TOTAL 14 54 34.39
MAD MSE MAPE
3.5 13.5 8.60
 YOUTUBE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
At or Yt Ft a
WEEK SALES FORECAST CONSTANT ERROR ERROR^2
1 39 39 0.2 0 0
2 44 39 0.2 5 25
3 40 40 0.2 0 0
4 45 40 0.2 5 25
5 38 41 0.2 -3 9
6 43 40.40 0.2 2.6 6.76
7 39 40.92 0.2 -1.92 3.6864
8 40.54 0.2 TOTAL 69.4464
MSE
11.5744

EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORMULA:

Ft = Ft-1 + a(At-1 - Ft-1)

Ft = aAt-1 + (1-a)Ft-1
 YOUTUBE TREND FORECASTING
PERIOD SALES FORECAST
1 5 SALES
2 10
35
3 17
4 11 30

5 21 25
f(x) = − 0.316095669036846 x² + 5.70753070458953 x − 0.129670329670358
6 24 20 R² = 0.785211297252881
7 29
15
8 26
9 28 10

10 23 5
11 21 0
12 24 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

13 15
14 21
15 16 THE MORE COMPLICATED THE MODEL, THE HARDER THE CALCULATIONS
16 10.2687
17 5.5449 R^2 is the coeffficient of determination; it tells you what percentage of variation
18 0.1889
458953 x − 0.129670329670358

10 12 14 16

ntage of variation
 SET A: FORECASTS BASED ON AVERAGES
PERIOD # OF COMPLAINTS 3 PERIOD M. AVE. PERIOD # OF COMPLAINTS
1 60 1 60
2 65 2 65
3 55 3 55
4 58 60 4 58
5 64 59.3333333333333 5 64
6 70 59 6
Prepare a forecast for period 6 using each of these approaches:

1. The appropriate naive approach. 70

2. A three-period moving average. 59
3. A weighted average using weights of .50 (most recent), .30, and .
20. 60.4

4. Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .40.

60.832

EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORMULA:

Ft = Ft-1 + a(At-1 - Ft-1)

Ft = aAt-1 + (1-a)Ft-1
Set B: National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month
period were as follows:
MONTH SALES (In 000) 5-month M. AVE. WEIGHTED AVE. PERIOD
Feb 19 1
Mar 18 2
Apr 15 3
May 20 4
Jun 18 5
Jul 22 18 6
Aug 20 18.6 7
Sept 20 19 20.4 8
1. Plot the monthly data on a graph, using Excel. Copy-Paste this graph on your
Word sheet .

2. Forecast September sales volume using each of the following:

                (1) The naive approach  20

 (2) A five-month moving average 19

(3) A weighted average using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June 20.4

(4)  Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .20,

assuming a a March  forecast of 19(000) 19.261184
(5) A linear trend equation 23.1446

SALES (In 000)

25

20 f(x) = 0.190476190476191 x² − 1.02380952380952 x + 19.1428571428571

R² = 0.348184818481848

15

10

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
FORECAST CONSTANT ERROR ERROR^2 PERIOD # OF COMPLAINTS
60 0.4 0 0 1 60
60 0.4 5 25 2 65
62 0.4 -7 49 3 55
59.2 0.4 -1.2 1.44 4 58
58.72 0.4 5.28 27.8784 5 64
60.832 0.4 6

SALES FORECAST CONSTANT ERROR ERROR^2

19 0.2 19 361
18 19 0.2 -1 1
15 18.8 0.2 -3.8 14.44
20 18.04 0.2 1.96 3.8416
18 18.432 0.2 -0.432 0.186624
22 18.3456 0.2
20 19.07648 0.2
19.261184 0.2

20000
 19000

20400

19261.184
23144.6
WEIGHTED M. AVE PERIOD # OF COMPLAINTS
NAÏVE FORECAST
1 60
2 65
3 55
4 58
5 64
60.4 6 64