Indonesia Macro Economy & FMCG Consumer Update

INDONESIA MACROECONOMY
& FMCG CONSUMER UPDATE

A CAUTIOUS 2020 – CHALLENGING SITUATION AHEAD
Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

Vecteezy.com2
• Consumer Journey
• Impact on Cigarettes & FMCG
• The New Normal Consumer
• Life Beyond Covid

GDP GROWTH STARTED TO DECLINE IN Q1 2020
Q1 GDP growth was 2.97% with inflation level around 3%
GDP GROWTH (%) ANNUAL INFLATION (%)
2012 - 2018 2019 2020

8.4 8.4
FY 2019
5.02
5,58
5,02 4,79 5,03 5.07 5,17 5,07 5,05 5.02 4,97
2,97
3.6
3.4 3.1 3.3 3.4
3.0 3.0
2.5 2.7
FY FY FY FY FY FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC MAR JUN SEP DEC MAR JUN SEP DEC
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20
*) Government assumption on APBN 2019

Source: bps.go.id 4
BPS
ALL GDP SECTOR SOFTENED IN Q1 2020

All sectors slowed down with household consumptions growing 2.8%
Q1’20 - GDP CONTRIBUTION GDP EXPENDITURE

BY EXPENDITURE (%) GROWTH
EXPORT/GDP 17.4% 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.0
HOUSEHOLD 2.8
IMPORT/GDP 17.6% CONSUMPTION
58.1
NET EXPORT -0.1%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 | Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20
8.2
6.9
5.4 4.8 5.2
3.7
31.9 GOVERNMENT 2.0 2.1
1.0 0.5
SPENDING
-0.2
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 | Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20
6.5
3.6 6.2 6.7
-0.1 GROSS FIXED 5.3 5.1 4.5 5.0 5.0
4.1 4.2 4.1
CAPITAL 1.8
HH Consumption Gov. Spending Investment Net Others FORMATION
Export/Import
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 | Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20
Source: bps.go.id 5
BANK
INDONESIA
INDONESIA CONSUMER CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN DECREASING IN THE PAST 2

MONTHS
Indonesia CCI has been decreasing in the past 2 months, driven mainly by the steep drop in confidence about current
condition though still hopeful for near future.
CCI CECI CEI MAY ’20

150
CCI - CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
137 CECI - CONSUMER ECONOMIC CONDITION INDEX
140 CEI - CONSUMER EXPECTATION INDEX
130
2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
120
115
110 CONFIDENCE ABOUT FUTURE

CONDITION
100 Neutral 105
90
80 CONFIDENCE ABOUT CURRENT

CONDITION
70 51
60
Copyright © 2019
50
MAY17 AUG17 NOV17 FEB18 MAY18 AUG18 NOV18 FEB19 MAY19 AUG19 NOV19 FEB20 MAY20
Source: Bank Indonesia 6

BANK
INDONESIA
INDONESIA CONSUMER CONFIDENCE BY COMPONENTS

The reduction of consumer confidence is driven by uncertainty on current income and job prospect which in turn
impacted their buying intention
CONSUMER OPTIMISM BY COMPONENTS

120 114 114 112 110
100 90
86 84
80 73
64 FEB20
60 51 MAR 20
41 APR 20
40 28 MAY 202
20
-
CURRENT INCOME JOB AVAILABILITY BUYING DURABLE GOODS
CONDITION
Copyright © 2019
Source: Bank Indonesia 7

TCB
BOTH ECONOMY AND HEALTH BECOME TOP TWO CONCERNS.

JOB SECURITY IS ON THE RISE TO THE TOP 5 LIST
The 1st concern is still THE ECONOMY, however HEALTH concern significantly increases to 2nd position, and JOB SECURITY
followed on the 5th position.
TREND OF RECESSIONARY TOP 5 MAJOR CONCERNS

SENTIMENT AMONG CONSUMER
Q1 19 Q4 19 Q1 20
Yes No
THE ECONOMY 31% 34% 35%

61
57 57 57
55 56 56 HEALTH 12% 14% 23%
51 52
WORK LIFE BALANCE 16% 21% 21%
49 48 INCREASING UTILITY BILLS 6% 12% 11%

(ELECTRICITY, GAS, ETC)
45 44 44
43 43 43
39 GLOBAL WARMING 8% 19% 11%
Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 JOB SECURITY 7% 9% 10%
Copyright © 2019
Q : Do you think your country is in an economic recession at the moment? Q : What are the top 5 major concerns among consumer ?
Source: The Conference Board ® Consumer Confidence Survey, conducted in collaboration with Nielsen
*Note : Q1 2020 fieldwork is based on Jan-Feb 2020 8
CPS
FMCG AND TELECOMUNICATION WERE ABLE TO GROW, WHILE LEISURE (VACATION, DINE-
OUT, FASHION), TRANSPORTATION AND EDUCATION DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
With their activities being limited during the pandemic, consumer expenses for LEISURE, TRANSPORTATION and
EDUCATION decreased significantly. Meanwhile, spending on FMCG and TELECOMMUNICATION have increased.
HH SPENDING HH SPENDING
CONTRIBUTION % GROWTH*
Q1 2019 Q1 2020
• FMCG
STRONG GROWTH
• Telecommunication
23.2 23.5
22.8
20.8
• Food
• Saving & Loans
14.6 MODERATE GROWTH • Electricity
12.3 • Insurance
10.8 10.4
9.4 8.5 • Health
7.9 7.2
4.2 4.6 4.8 5.4
3.6 3.4
1.2 1.4
DECLINE GROWTH • Education
FMCG Food Housing Transport Comm Education Health Saving + Leisure Insurance • Transportation
(Fresh & Related Loans • Leisure
Staples)
STRONG MODERATE DECLINE
Source: Nielsen CPS Data – Additional Spending +78 FMCG Homepanel – Q1 2020 vs LY above +5 between +5 and -5 below-5 9
RMS
SINCE MARCH 2020, THE FMCG GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN POST COVID-19
LOCAL SITUATION
VALUE, VOLUME GROWTH

& PRICE INCREASE | TOP 68 FMCG CATEGORIES
GDP
GROWTH 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.1
INFLATION 3.6 3.1 2.7 3.6
17
3 5 1 4 4 5 3 7
2 4
FMCG (2) (1) (1) (1) -8
(4)
(20)
FY 2017 FY 20018 FY 2019 MAT MAY'20 YTD MAY'20 MAY'20

Copyright © 2019
FMCG Value Growth FMCG Vol Growth (/unit) FMCG Price Increase (/unit)
Source: (1) BPS Official Government Site, & Nielsen Retail Data * per FEB 2020 vs LY 10
RMS
2020 FESTIVE PERIOD AND QUARANTINE LIVING SITUATION IS NEGATIVELY

IMPACTING CONSUMER CONSUMPTION
During fasting period in May 2020, both Cigarette and FMCG are declining much higher than expected
CIGARETTE* FMCG
Volume (Bill Stc) Value (Trillion Rp)

Volume (Bill Bags) Value (Trillion Rp)
21.8 21.4 10.2 10.2 10.1

21.1
17.4 8.2
29.8
24.2 28.3 27.6
23.6 27.2
22.5
21.5
GR VS YA MAY20 YTD MAY20 MAT MAY20 GR VS YA MAY20 YTD MAY20 MAT MAY20
VOL STC -26% -12% -6% VOL UNIT -20% -4% -1%
VALUE -20% -6% -2% VALUE -8% 4% 5%
Copyright © 2019
MAY17 AUG17 NOV17 FEB18 MAY18 AUG18 NOV18 FEB19 MAY19 AUG19 NOV19 FEB20 MAY17 AUG17 NOV17 FEB18 MAY18 AUG18 NOV18 FEB19 MAY19 AUG19 NOV19 FEB20 MAY20
* New data (Indonesia + East Indo)
Source: Nielsen RMS Data 11

RMS
CATEGORIES RELATED TO BEING ABLE TO GO OUTSIDE THE HOUSE WERE

MOST SEVERELY IMPACTED
Categories such as RTD, Beauty and Coffee & Tea were impacted the most. Basic Personal Care also experienced
slow down
RETAIL SALES GROWTH Vs. YA [Data Ending MAY20]
VALUE GROWTH vs YA VALUE GROWTH vs YA
MAY20 YTD MAY20 MAT MAY20 MAY20 YTD MAY20 MAT MAY20
COOKING AID (9%) 9% 15% 6%

FOOD(33%) 1% 8% 6% INSTANT FOOD (10%) -6% 6% 6%

SNACK + CONFEC (13%) 3% 6% 6%
DAIRY (13%) 0% 7% 7%
BEVERAGES (35%) -14% 0% 3% COFFEE + TEA (8%) -17% -3% -1%
RTD (14%) -29% -6% 1%
BEAUTY (10%) -22% -3% 2%
PERSONAL CARE (20%) -16% 0% 4%
BASIC PC (10%) -6% 4% 5%
HOMECARE (9%) -6% 5% 5% HOMECARE (9%) -6% 5% 5%
PHARMA (3%) -248% 0% 4% PHARMA (3%) -24% 0% 4%
Copyright © 2019
*) Pharmaceutical use price/unit increase 12

RMS
TOP 10 CATEGORIES :
ONLY A FEW CATEGORIES WERE ABLE TO SUSTAIN POSITIVE GROWTH IN
RECENT PERIOD
INDONESIA TOTAL | TOP 1—10 CATEGORIES | GROWTH | ENDING MAY20
MAT MAY20 YTD MAY20 MAY20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
15% 16%
12% 10%
7% 7% 9% 7% 7%
4% 6% 5% 6% 5% 6% 4%
1% 1% 1%
-1% -3% -1% -2% -3%

-6% -7%
-17%
-21%
-26%
-38%
Instant Noodles Powder Milk Biscuit Coffee Cooking Oil Mineral water Liquid Milk Baby Diapers Skincare Snack
Copyright © 2019

RMS
NEXT SELECTED 11-20 CATEGORIES :

INDULGENCE AND PERSONAL CARE WERE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED AS
CONSUMERS PRIORITISED HYGIENE AND HEALTH
INDONESIA TOTAL | SELECTED 11—20 CATEGORIES | GROWTH | ENDING MAY20
MAT MAY20 YTD MAY20 MAY20
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
16%
11% 11% 11%

8% 8%
6% 7% 5% 5%
1% 1%
4%
1%
4%
1%
3% 3% 3% 4% 3%
0%
-4%
-6% -7%
-13% -12% -11%
-18%
-28%
Shampoo Detergent Cologne Chocolate Insecticides Carbonated Soft Non Powder Dishwashing Liquid Sanitary Napkin Breakfast Cereal
Copyright © 2019
Drink Detergent

RMS
THIS YEAR FESTIVE DID NOT ABLE TO GIVE POSITIVE IMPACT

Both General Trade and HBC channel are impacted the most
Data ending MAY20
TOTAL MM GT HBM HBC

(%CONT) HSM (12%)
(100%) (36%) (49%) (1%) (2%)
MAT MAY20 5% -3% 12% 1% 11% -1%

GROWTH (%) YTD MAY20 4% 0% 13% -2% 12% -14%
MAY20 -8% -7% 8% -20% -18% -46%
STORE GRO (%) W1 18 vs YA 0 -1 6 0 0 1
VALUE (Rp) INDEX – JAN’18
200
150
100
Copyright © 2019
50
JAN18 MAR18 MAY18 JUL18 SEP18 NOV18 JAN19 MAR19 MAY19 JUL19 SEP19 NOV19 JAN20 MAR20 MAY20
MT Hyper/Super MT Minimarket General Trade H&B Medical H&B Cosmetic

CPS
E-COMMERCE :
UPPER SES IS DRIVING THE OVERALL GROWTH OF FMCG E-COMMERCE
UPPER CLASS is able to take advantage the most from e-commerce channel, and to some extent, middle and lower class
are also trying to participate even though still very limited.
TOTAL UPPER (15%) MIDDLE (56%) LOWER (29%)
PENETRATION (%) 13.2 TOTAL SPENDING (IDR BILL) SPEND/ BUYER (000)
350
1,342
245
8.1
8.0 184 225

169
690
5.8 4.6
143
270
2.4
Copyright © 2019
Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20
18 18 18 19 19 19 19 20
Source: Nielsen CPS Data
*) Penetration & Spend/buyers and MAT rolling data 16
NEGATIVE GROWTH IN QUARTER 2 FORESEEN
January - May
Industry
2019 2020
Airline 4% -49%
Automotive 5% -26%
Hotel 5% -46%
Insurance 8% 1%
Restaurants 13% -26%
Retail (non supermarket) 7% -26%
Sports 15% -40%
Supermarket 19% 10%
Travel 20% -39%
17
CHANGES IN CONSUMER
BEHAVIOUR TOWARDS
FMCG AS TRIGGERED BY
COVID-19 AND
RESTRICTIONS

INDONESIANS NOW REDUCE THEIR VISIT TO STORES FOR
GROCERY SHOPPING AS WELL AS DINING OUT
12% 7%
16% 18% 5%
12% 11% 12% 8%
25% 9%
36% 34%
Traditional Mini Hyper/ 46%

Dining Out
Trade 24% market 21% Super 46%
60% 62%
54% 54%
64%
79%
88%
Less Same More
13%
28% 7%
16%
22%
30% 28%
41% 40% 16%
47% Food Cooking at 49%
Online
Delivery 44% home
54% 72%
50%
25%
Current Stage
19%
Early Stage
Q. What is the level of impact that Coronavirus Disease 2019 / Covid-19 has placed on your [ACTIVITY]? 19
CPS
IN RECENT CONDITION, HOUSEHOLD SPREFER TO GO TO ONE

CHANNEL INSTEAD OF MULTIPLE CHANNELS
CHANNEL DUPLICATION – KPI

PENETRATION (%)
SPEND/BUY SPEND /
Q1’20 vs LY Growth FREQUENCY
ER TRIP
All Channel
15,8 TOTAL OUTLET 6% 9% -3%
4 Channel
HYPER / SUPER 7% 1% 6%
3 Channel (- 0.9 pts) 32,5

MINIMARKET 8% 7% 0.4%
2 Channel (-0.7 pts)

GENERAL TRADE 7% 10% -3%
1 Channel (+1.4
pts) MODERN DRUGSTORE *
49,9 -6% -18% -3%
(HBC + HBM)
ONLINE SHOPPING 16% 4.0% 11%
And theyNIELSEN
SOURCE: also willing
CPS DATAto spend more instead of going more often * Low raw buyers
20
WHAT ABOUT ONLINE?
30% of consumers claimed to do online shopping more often. Despite the relatively small contribution to FMCG, the intention to
shop online might be carried over to FMCG as consumers are planning to reduce visit to grocery stores and modern trade
Among those who answer will increase their online

ONLINE SHOPPING
shopping are planning to… Vs. Total
30% SHOPPING AT GROCERY
STORES
12% 21% 33% 25%
SHOPPING AT
CONVENIENCE STORES
12% 25% 37% 36%
SHOPPING AT 43%
SUPERMARKETS
15% 28% 34%
SHOPPING AT PERSONAL
CARE STORE
15% 20% 35% 18%
SHOPPING AT PHARMACY 6% 9% 15% 30%
More often Same as before

VISITING MALL 35% 18% 53% 50%
Less often
Q. What is the level of impact that Coronavirus Disease 2019 / Covid-19 has placed on your [ACTIVITY]?
MUCH LESS OFTEN A LITTLE LESS OFTEN
Base: All Respondents (n= 502) THAN BEFORE THE THAN BEFORE THE
Base: All Respondents who did respective activity OUTBREAK OUTBREAK 21
WHAT WILL HAPPEN AFTER
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIFTED ?
• Consumer Thresholds vs Accelerators
• Nielsen 3 exit scenarios

NIELSEN’S SIX CONSUMER BEHAVIOR THRESHOLDS
OF COVID-19 CONCERN
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6
PROACTIVE HEALTH- REACTIVE HEALTH PANTRY QUARANTINED LIVING RESTRICTED LIVING A NEW
MINDED BUYING MANAGEMENT PREPARATION PREPARATION LIVING NORMAL
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR SHIFTS

People return to daily
Interest rises in Prioritize products Pantry stockpiling of Increased online Severely restricted routines (work,
products that support essential to virus shelf-stable foods and shopping, a decline in shopping trips, online school, etc.) but
overall maintenance containment, health a broader assortment store visits, rising out- fulfillment is limited, operate with a
of health and and public safety. E.g. of health-safety of-stocks, strains on price concerns rise as renewed cautiousness
wellness. face masks products; spike in the supply chain. limited stock about health.
store visits; growing availability impacts Permanent shifts in
basket sizes. pricing in some cases. supply chain, the use
of e-commerce and
hygiene practices.
COVID-19 EVENT MARKERS – INDONESIA
Mar 2nd – Mar 15th Mar 16th - Mar 30th April 10th – June 4th
February 2020
1st case announced Work From Home and School From Home PSBB Phase I - III
June 5th - onwards
Moving towards New Normal
23
LIFE BEYOND COVID-19:
REBOUND, REBOOT OR REINVENT
FOR THE LATEST INSIGHTS VISIT: NIELSEN.COM/COVID-19
Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
REGENERATION CONSUMPTION CHANGES
WALLET ADJUSTMENTS RESET BRAND RELATIONSHIPS

Refreshed narratives, tone and
Insulated vs Constrained placement
Spenders as income uncertainty
grows
ORIGIN PREFERENCES
REBALANCED FMCG BASKETS Security of local supply

Changing repertoires of channels, Consumer preference: reboot
categories & items economies; safety reassurances
REVISED PRICING MECHANICS RE-PRIORTISED VALUES

Reset Value definition, target Revised consideration of
efficiencies and need choice drivers
25
CONSUMPTION CHANGES
PROSPERITY POLARISES FMCG BASKETS

Spend Freely ► Comfortable ► Afford Basics = ▲Rebalanced Repertoires
REBOUND REBOOT REINVENT
• Initial splurge on discretionary FMCG, premium; luxuries, but smaller as time

progresses
• Look to prepared meals, takeaways, deliveries to replace OOH dining
INSULATED
• Increasing cautious in spending over time – just in case
• Default to at-home living and eating – small treat in short term

• Increasing seek value alternatives – channel and within categories
• Increasing reliant on support as time progresses via capped pricing; incentives to
CONSTRAINED support daily needs
EARLY DELAYED PROLONGED

26
CONSUMPTION CHANGES
RESET PRICING & PROMOTIONS STRATEGIES

Price Caps ► Elasticity ► Promo Cycles = ▲Reassessed Pricing
REBOUND REBOOT REINVENT
REVIEW PRICE OFFERING REBOOT VALUE OFFERS REINVENT VALUE

DEFINITION
• PRICE TIER ASSORTMENT • PRIVATE LABEL • DIRECT TO CONSUMER

Ensuring assortment of offers in price Increasingly cost conscious consumers subscription services will give brands
tiers (value and premium) to meet will seek out value offers especially on greater control of reward and loyalty
Constrained vs Insulated Consumer commodity/essential items
needs • RETAILER LOYALTY
• EDLP/MULTI -BUYS/ECONOMY PROGRAMS
• BREAKING THE PROMOTIONAL PACKS Provide opportunity to reward the most
MINDSET Return of bigger baskets, fewer store needy/ vulnerable with special offers
Opportunity to “reset” depth of promo trips – consumers will seek everyday
expectations after lack of instore value when choosing retailer • GOVERNMENT
promotions during COVID due to COLLABORATION
supply constraints to help the most vulnerable
27
PRE-COVID
PROMOTIONAL RESET ALLOWING FOR NEW “VALUE”

DEFINITION
DEPENDING ON COVID CATEGORY PERFORMANCE
AVG: 39%
NIELSEN EVERYDAY ANALYTICS MAT NOVEMBER 2019 28

CONSUMPTION CHANGES
ATTRIBUTE IMPORTANCE REASSESSED

▲Reprioritised Values will impact Assortment and Ranging
TOP 5 BENEFIT CLAIMS CONSUMERS ARE WILLING TO PAY MORE FOR: FOR READY TO EAT/DRINK PRODUCTS
HAS NATURAL SPICES THAT
HELPS ME TO KEEP MY ARE EFFECTIVE FOR HELPS ME TO KEEP MY
IMMUNE SYSTEM STRONG BACTERIAL INHIBITION AND IMMUNE SYSTEM STRONG
KILLING GERMS
IT IS MADE UNDER THE IT IS BASED ON NATURAL
HELPS ME TO KEEP MY
HIGHEST SAFETY STANDARDS INGREDIENTS
IMMUNE SYSTEM STRONG
IT IS IT IS MADE OUT OF IT IS
NUTRITIOUS SUSTAINABLE INGREDIENTS NUTRITIOUS
CONTAINS HEALTHY
IT IS MADE OUT OF HIGH IT IS BASED ON NATURAL SUPPLEMENTS LIKE VITAMIN
QUALITY INGREDIENTS INGREDIENTS C VITAMIN D OMEGA 3 OR
PROBIOTICS
IT IS BASED ON NATURAL IT HELPS ME TO STAY IT IS MADE UNDER THE

INGREDIENTS HYDRATED HIGHEST SAFETY STANDARDS
THAILAND INDIA VIETNAM

29
CONSUMPTION CHANGES Indonesia
OPPORTUNITY FOR SIMPLIFIED ASSORTMENT

% of SKU contributing to the bottom 2% of ID category sales
2019 MORE SPACE FOR:
Top 80% sales 81% - 98% sales Bottom 2% sales
volume contributing SKUs volume contributing SKUs volume contributing SKUs
HEALTH/HYGIENE
VALUE BRANDS &

PRIVATE LABEL
ORIGIN
PREFERENCES
Nielsen ScanTrack | Total Key Account | Volume Sales | January 2019 to December 2019
*Categories analysed for ID (Modern Trade): Chocolate, Hair Conditioning, Carbonated soft drink, Biscuit, Shampoo, Detergent, Tea RTD, Liquid Milk 30
NAVIGATING A RETAIL RESET
Rebuild confidence ► Re-inspire experiences ► Tech transformation = ▲Retail reimagined
REBUILD CONFIDENCE AND RELATIONSHIPS

• Instore hygiene
• Availability and supply
• Support local and specific origin
• Re-instigate store loyalty for those that strayed due to proximity, supply
REDEFINE SALES ACTIVATION TACTICS

• Price and promotional review to create a new value definition based on consumer need
• Reimagine layout and shelf to match consumer need and simplify supply chains
RE-INSPIRE RETAIL EXPERIENCE – IN STORE AND ONLINE

• FMCG larger slice of smaller spend but more fragmented landscape - more eating in, less out;
importance of meal kits, delivery options
• Reimagine role of physical store: with more online, direct to home, evolve store experience –
showrooming; innovation hotbed
• Ensure new online shoppers stay - e-commerce the new norm , need support and seamless experience
TECHNOLOGY TRANSFORMATION
• Re-envisage online user experience – easy online experience; augmented reality trips;
personalised service/chatbots
• Scale new technologies – scan and go; contactless checkouts
• Leverage tech to create supply chain transparency and gain shopper trust
31
DISCLAIMER
This publication has been produced by Nielsen. It is distributed for informational purposes only. Nielsen makes no express or implied
warranties with respect to any information or data included in this publication, and expressly disclaims all warranties, including but not
limited to, any warranties of accuracy, non-infringement, merchantability, quality or fitness for a particular purpose or use.
Other than information or data sourced from Nielsen, the information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources that
Nielsen believes to be reliable, but Nielsen does not represent or warrant that it is accurate or complete. Nielsen is not responsible for the
content or performance or security of any third party web site that may be accessed via hyperlink in this publication and any information on
such sites are not incorporated by reference.
The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Nielsen has no obligation to update its
opinions or the information or data in this publication. This publication does not constitute investment, financial, business or other
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use, decisions and actions in respect of this publication. This publication may not be redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without
the express written consent of Nielsen.
Copyright © 2019
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INDONESIA MACROECONOMY

& FMCG CONSUMER UPDATE

Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

GDP GROWTH (%) ANNUAL INFLATION (%)

2012 - 2018 2019 2020

*) Government assumption on APBN 2019

ALL GDP SECTOR SOFTENED IN Q1 2020

Q1’20 - GDP CONTRIBUTION GDP EXPENDITURE

INDONESIA CONSUMER CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN DECREASING IN THE PAST 2

CCI CECI CEI MAY ’20

110 CONFIDENCE ABOUT FUTURE

80 CONFIDENCE ABOUT CURRENT

Source: Bank Indonesia 6

INDONESIA CONSUMER CONFIDENCE BY COMPONENTS

CONSUMER OPTIMISM BY COMPONENTS

Source: Bank Indonesia 7

BOTH ECONOMY AND HEALTH BECOME TOP TWO CONCERNS.

TREND OF RECESSIONARY TOP 5 MAJOR CONCERNS

THE ECONOMY 31% 34% 35%

55 56 56 HEALTH 12% 14% 23%

49 48 INCREASING UTILITY BILLS 6% 12% 11%

STRONG MODERATE DECLINE

VALUE, VOLUME GROWTH

FY 2017 FY 20018 FY 2019 MAT MAY'20 YTD MAY'20 MAY'20

2020 FESTIVE PERIOD AND QUARANTINE LIVING SITUATION IS NEGATIVELY

Volume (Bill Stc) Value (Trillion Rp)

21.8 21.4 10.2 10.2 10.1

* New data (Indonesia + East Indo)

Source: Nielsen RMS Data 11

CATEGORIES RELATED TO BEING ABLE TO GO OUTSIDE THE HOUSE WERE

VALUE GROWTH vs YA VALUE GROWTH vs YA

COOKING AID (9%) 9% 15% 6%

FOOD(33%) 1% 8% 6% INSTANT FOOD (10%) -6% 6% 6%

*) Pharmaceutical use price/unit increase 12

MAT MAY20 YTD MAY20 MAY20

-1% -3% -1% -2% -3%

Source: Nielsen RMS Data 13

NEXT SELECTED 11-20 CATEGORIES :

MAT MAY20 YTD MAY20 MAY20

11% 11% 11%

Source: Nielsen RMS Data 14

THIS YEAR FESTIVE DID NOT ABLE TO GIVE POSITIVE IMPACT

TOTAL MM GT HBM HBC

MAT MAY20 5% -3% 12% 1% 11% -1%

MT Hyper/Super MT Minimarket General Trade H&B Medical H&B Cosmetic

TOTAL UPPER (15%) MIDDLE (56%) LOWER (29%)

8.0 184 225

Restaurants 13% -26%

Retail (non supermarket) 7% -26%

Sports 15% -40%

Supermarket 19% 10%

Travel 20% -39%

Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

Traditional Mini Hyper/ 46%

Less Same More

IN RECENT CONDITION, HOUSEHOLD SPREFER TO GO TO ONE

CHANNEL DUPLICATION – KPI

3 Channel (- 0.9 pts) 32,5

2 Channel (-0.7 pts)

ONLINE SHOPPING 16% 4.0% 11%

Among those who answer will increase their online

SHOPPING AT PHARMACY 6% 9% 15% 30%

More often Same as before

Indonesia Macro Economy & FMCG Consumer Update

Indonesia Macro Economy & FMCG Consumer Update