Professional Documents
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2021 Global Perspective
2021 Global Perspective
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
Post Digital Era: Year 0
1
2021 Global Perspective: Editor’s Note
DISCLAIMER: All the information of this document comes from open sources which are referenced
in each page and the related source can be found in the Part 6.
The « 2021 Global Perspective » is a collective effort to synthetize a vision, out of a very large set of
relevant and credible input sources, articles and studies.
It can help to easier embrace the variety and the complexity of the 2021 Global context that can
sometimes be hard to grasp by marketeers and strategists.
This year, we study in depth how the 3 impacting axes – the World Crises, COVID19 and Cyber
World War, the Climate Change and the Sino-US Trade War - have shaped the context, globally,
regionally and 5 market segments.
MARKET
5
CLIMATE CHANGE
SEGMENTS
Defense, Aeronautics, Space,
Security and Identity,
Ground Transport
Regional context
Africa, China, Europe, India, Indopac,
SINO-US TRADE WAR
Latin America, Middle East,
United-States
3 OPEN
LIST OF SOURCES
Slides 72 - 79
Global Crises:
Covid-19, Cyber World War Effect of Impact Axes
and other key elements
Climate change
Sino-American Trade War 8 REGIONS 2021
PERSPECTIVE
INTRODUCTION
Geopolitical
Economic
Effect of Impact Axes
and other key elements
CONCLUSION
Technological
1 GLOBAL CONTEXT
3 5 MARKET
SEGMENTS 2021
MEGATRENDS
5
2
Slides 5 - 13 Slides 14 - 27
4
Slides 28 - 53
4 THALES GROUP INTERNAL Slides 54 -65 Slides 66 - 71
1
INTRODUCTION - STATUS
5 OPEN
Global Crises: What’s up, COVID 19
6 OPEN
Global Crises: Where in the world, COVID 19
7 OPEN
Global Crises: Post COVID 19 macro-trends
8 OPEN
Global Crises: What’s up, Cyber World War
9 OPEN
Climate Change: A Global Matter
The world is aware of the importance of climate change. Climate risks have various impacts and these
risks are increasing while they are difficult to contain. The aim is more than adapt, it’s to be prepared. (1)
Increasing and variable climate change risks Some examples of climate change issues (1)
Referring to the map on the left to find the issues
Natural capital:
(9) Will there be reduced dividends on natural capital?
10 OPEN
Climate Change: A global green projects trend
The 4 main investors in projets to reduce on carbon emissions : 44% of global investments are
89% of projects are from European countries done in transport sector
Country Amount Type of projects R&D 8%
Agriculture 2%
Electric vehicles, Energy efficiency, Hydrogen,
European Union $63,97Bn Transport 44%
Renewable electricity, Green Jobs Buildings 14%
Germany $50,75Bn
Electric vehicles, Public transport, Hydrogen, $184 Bn
Shipping Energy 13%
11 OPEN
Sino-american trade war: The escalation
The president of the United States claims that the Chinese are manipulating their currency, continue to steal intellectual property from US companies, do not
allow foreign companies to operate independently in China, as in the rest of the Western world, and still trade unfairly. (2)
Even more agressive US trade war (1) China reacts on finance, technology and Industry
• China is highly unlikely to fully meet phase-one • China’s longer-term strategy will seek to reduce its reliance on US technology as well as its
agreement commitments across the agricultural, exposure to the US-dominated economic system. Accelerated US targeting of China’s
manufacturing, and energy sectors. indigenous technology sector would further increase the urgency to achieve both industrial
and financial self-sufficiency in order to reduce reliance on the US-led economic system. (1)
• The US administration has framed the Communist Party
of China (CPC) government as a threat to the US-led • China must decouple the renminbi from the US dollar system. It has also begun testing a
Western “free world” and has begun to seek a “broad “virtual yuan” digital currency, which is likely to strengthen its control in the financial sector.
(1)
alliance” against CPC influence among Western
governments. • At the 2020 National People’s Congress, the CCP announced that in addition to doubling
• The new US policy direction indicates a shift to a more down on its Made in China 2025 and China Standards 2035 initiatives, it would spend
aggressive and challenging bilateral relationship and is approximately US$1.4 trillion on a digital infrastructure public spending program in the next
unlikely to completely reverse course should 5 years. (3)
Democratic candidate Joe Biden win the US
presidential election November 2020. China’s “ New Infrastructure Initiative “
12 OPEN
Sino-american trade war: Multilateralism and US Leadership?
Multilateralism (2)
• The reject of globalization and multilateralism is for the moment more
characterised by restrictions on exports than on imports and by the
shortening of global supply and value chains.
• China is erecting a parallel multilateralism, with basically regional
(3) institutions driving what has been termed ‘global bilateralism’ with
the policy/program of the New Silk Road.
• The UN, particularly its Security Council, has vanished; some UN
components have failed to measure up (such as the World Health
Organisation). The World Trade Organisation awaits reactivation and
in-depth reform. The representation of the International Monetary Fund
needs to reflect the new global reality. The G20 has also experienced
a loss of solidity and solidarity.
• In a world that in the best of cases is polycentric, or lacking a centre,
national and international institutions will be weak and reeling after
years of abuse, and it will take years to rebuild them.
13 OPEN
2
GLOBAL CONTEXT
14 OPEN
Geopolitical context: Impact of Covid-19 and Trade war
COVID19 is often said to be just another risk on top of many others (1)
An Indopacific Front
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has accused the United States of “stirring up
confrontation” in the Asia Pacific, declaring as a “security risk” Washington’s
plan to form an Indo-Pacific alliance, seen as a strategy to counter Beijing’s
own growing assertiveness in the region.(3)
Emergence of 2 blocks?
Two recent momentous developments in the Middle East, are both interpreted as escalations in the geopolitical
conflict between the US and Iran: the news of a prospective strategic partnership agreement between Iran and
China, and the normalisation of relations between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel. (4)
15 OPEN
Geopolitical context: Sovereign and Trustable Digital Governance
Global or Local
Digital Governance
• There are new aspects, from the
governance of the Internet to the
Post Digital Era Year 0 (1) regulation of artificial intelligence,
ethically and otherwise, that require a
new type of global governance (2).
• It is now clear that, if Europeans want to reap the economic
benefits of emerging digital technologies, they will have to • Geopolitics has increasingly bedevilled
protect their digital sovereignty and compete with other attempts to create a global framework
geopolitical actors in the digital realm… for managing the internet (1).
• Europe remains digitally dependent on both the US and • Countries such as China reject any notion
China in a variety of domains, from chat platforms to of an independent communications
telecommunications equipment. Digital technology has network outside of state supervision. The
become a critical battleground in geopolitical struggles. overarching goal of Chinese diplomacy is
to promote the notion of cyber (or
• Post-digital requires new rules. Leadership will depend on internet) sovereignty.
how fast you can master artificial intelligence, extended
reality, distributed ledger technology, quantum computing • Initiatives in Europe like the Paris Call and
and more.(3) Gaia-X are the seeds of a new digital
governance. (4)
16 OPEN
Geopolitical context: Impact of climate change
Managing peace and security is directly linked
to managing the environment and especially
containing climate change.(7)
17 OPEN
Economic context: GDP
18 OPEN
Economic context: New growth directions
High
Industry 4.0
Urbanization
Rise of digital Medium
Autonomous disruptors
& densification Smart devices Anxiety
vehicles High
& infra.
Public debt crisis
NGOs & citizenship
Global cooperation
Global mobility
19 OPEN
Economic context: New growth directions
De-Urbanization (2)
Urban design and planning of a healthier and fairer city is best to fight pandemics.
De-Globalization (3)
20 OPEN
Economic context: Value chain transformation
Although the different trajectories show that the expected transformation of international production is not
unidirectional, the overall direction of travel points follow one of the 4 transformations trajectories below.
Geographical
I Reshoring
distribution
Dispersed 30
Higher geographical concentration /
b Agro-based IV b
Less fragmented value chain
28 Transportation
and logistics
26
I
Wholesale
and retail
24
22
a
Extractive
Food and
beverage
II Diversification
Pharmaceuticals Chemicals a Wider distribution with new entrants
20
Textiles
18 Financial and apparel
II
services a III b
III
Machinery
16
Business
services
and equipment
b
Regionalization
14 Electronics
Reduced physical length but not
12 Automotive
a IV the fragmentation of Supply Chain
Concentrated
10
1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3
Length
Short Fragmented
IV Replications
Shorter value chains by rebundling
Geographical Distribution: Number of countries accounting for 80% of GVC
Length: Number of production stages in a specific industry
production stages and more
geographicaly distributed
21 OPEN
Economic context: Companies under constraints
Estimated cost of US sanctions for
The US Sanctions cover many aspects (1):
European companies: select losses (2)
FINANCE $1.5bn
Sanction the European financial special purpose vehicle, INSTEX, that France, Germany, and
Siemens’s losses
the United Kingdom built to enable trade with Iran in defiance of US sanctions. Cut Russia off under a railway
from SWIFT and the global financial system. Force divestment from Chinese companies in the US contract with
$2bn
Iran
through its Committee on Foreign Investment, or force sale of Chinese Tech to American capital. Total’s lost
investment
in South Pars
PEOPLE gas field
Expand the scope of PEESCA sanctions on Nord Stream 2-related activities, that would probably
threaten German federal officials. Target sanctions on senior CCP (Chinese Communist Party)
officials who have violated human rights or have ties to the Chinese military with travel bans
and asset freezes (for example in Wuhan, Xinjiang and Hong Kong). US $19bn
Airbus’s losses
sanctions under a contract
with Iran Air
TRADE
Broaden export controls that apply extraterritorially when 25 per cent of a product’s content
is American, when it has a potential military use. Declare Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, to
trigger a range of economic coercion tools against the country, with ramifications for Europeans.
440,000
PSA group’s
TECHNOLOGY estimated losr
car sales in Iran
Weaponise the IMF on 5G to make emergency and critical development loans conditional upon €500,000
a complete ban on Huawei in their 5G networks. Impose secondary sanctions on companies the Quercus’s losses
due to a solar
US determines to have engaged in intellectual property (IP) theft (Chinese or not). Exclude Chinese power project
students from certain courses of study, especially natural and computer science and fields more in Iran
connected to ‘emerging’ and ‘foundational’ technology such as biotech or artificial intelligence.
22 OPEN
Economic context: Environment Resilience attracts Finance
23 OPEN
Technological context: Wild Wide Web
24 OPEN
Technological context: China Standards 2035 Plan
25 OPEN
Technological context: Climate change driver of innovation
2013-2025 Digital related energy share
in Global Greenhouse Gases emissions
$21Bn financing green innovations in the world
• Between March and September, 23 green projects Scenario without Sobriety
26 OPEN
Intentionally left blank
27
3
8 REGIONS
28 OPEN
Europe: Towards a military, financial and technical sovereignty
29 OPEN
Europe: An ambivalent relationship with China
TOTAL 12 40 48
European cooperation
Denmark 5 33 62 with China is necessary (1/2)
France 6 32 62
Sweden 6 42 52
• The EU encourages its members to promote reciprocity
Germany 7 45 48 and deepen relations with China on multilateral issues such
Portugal 16 38 46 as the fight against global warming, international security
Spain 17 37 46
and international trade.
Poland 14 44 43
Italy 21 42 37 • According to the French “Cour des comptes”, Chinese
Bulgaria 22 56 22 investments in Europe create jobs, bring cash and reinforce
Improved Stayed the same, or don’t know Worsened international relations. But, China is working with each
Source: ECFR – ecfr.eu Surveys organized in June 2020 country separately which creates risks of coordination for
infrastructure projects, indebtedness towards China, forced
Has your view of US changed during the coronavirus crisis ? (%) transfers of technology, unfair competition and VAT and
Bulgaria 8 56 36
customs duty fraud.
Germany 4 31 65
Denmark 3 26 71
Spain
France
5
3 29
31 64
68
The European’s worsened
Italy 9 43 48 view on China and the US (3)
Poland 13 49 38
Portugal 4 26 70 • The shift is particularly marked in France and in Germany
Sweden 5 35 59 which took over the presidency of the EU in July. This
change in public opinion may push European governments
Improved Stayed the same, or don’t know Worsened Source: ECFR
to pursue a more independent line from the US.
30 OPEN
Europe: The Climate policy is a top priority
2019Q4=100
sectoral, spatial (countries and regions within countries) and
90
temporal. It does not and will not be adverse for all the regions
and sectors - some could benefit from it. (4) 80
sectors and positive for others. Taking military goods as an 2019Q4 2021Q2 2022Q4 2024Q2 2025Q4
example, there would be little change under WTO rules as these No EU-UK trade deal June 2020 baseline
are exempt from EU tariffs on grounds of maintaining national Source: IHS Markit
February 2020 baseline
security for member states.”(1)
32 OPEN
Europe: Focus on Russia
An expanding cyber-domain
• Russia is a major source of threat for the EU and USA
because they are able to deploy the cyber-capabilities in
offensive operations and to take high risks by breaking the
norms of acceptable behavior in the poorly regulated cyber-
domain of international relation. But Russia has still troubles
in producing hardware and developing software. (4)
33 OPEN
Europe: Focus on Russia
34 OPEN
North America: China is a « systemic rival »
Affirmation of the Sino-US Technology Divide (3)
• Punitive measures taken by the U.S. are hindering the Chinese companies’
entry into the U.S. market, which has led China to unveil its own security
standards for e-governance and increased the technology gap between
the two countries.
35 OPEN
North America: The most important election ever
36 OPEN
North America: Rejoining the Paris Agreement?
37 OPEN
China: Covid-19, a time to grow faster
-2
the inflexibility and the
dependence on the state of
-4
-4,3
-6 China’s financial system, the
2018 2019 2020 serious weaknesses in an
international environment
China USA
Source : FMI (3) and the economic
architecture in part because
of Sino-US Trade war. (2)
• The pandemic reinforced the
China's GDP to grow faster than digital economy by
the US one in 2020(3) accelerating the uptake of
• The pandemic widened the gap between US digital technologies in
and Chinese GDP growth. China could therefore different industries such as
catch up with the US faster than expected. health and financial sector.
(1)
38 OPEN
China: Technology at the core of Chinese development
39 OPEN
China: Climate at the heart of economics and geopolitics
Economic Dilemna
• The pandemic accentuated the necessity to put employment first
and Beijing recently approved the construction of new coal-fired
power plants. (5)
• On the other hand, President Xi Jinping announced in the U.N.
General Assembly yesterday that China aims to become carbon
neutral by 2060. (3)
40 OPEN
India: An emerging super power
Continuous threat from the neighbours (1) India, in turn, is also creating zones of
influence with neighbouring countries
• ISRO’s satellite South Asia Satellite for India, Nepal, Bhutan,
Bangladesh, Maldives, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan
• Sale of Brahmos supersonic anti ship cruise missiles to Vietnam
• India-Mauritius maritime agreement
• Defense: Primary vendor was Russia (last recent important contract:
S-400 missiles, 5$Bn, 2018) but since mid-2000s a number of other
suppliers –US, Fr, Israel
• While India has tightened imports from China, its exports to China
grew 78% Y-O-Y (CRISIL report) in June 2020. According to the
Government, trade deficit between India &China in April-June (Q1)
of this fiscal year fell to $5.48 billion, compared to $13.1 billion in the
corresponding period last year
• Exports to other SE Asian nations also increased (Malaysia 76%,
Vietnam 43% and Singapore 37%)
41 OPEN
India: World’s plagues affecting the already weak people
Chart 2: Percentage change in key indicators (3) Covid-19 exacerbates existing tensions (1)
Indicator Q1 2019-20 Q1 2020-21
• The pandemic highlights the need to decongest slums to
Production of coal 2.6 -15.0
protect people’s health and wellbeing and to prevent food
Production of cement 1.0 -38.3
Consumption of steel 5.0 -56.8
insecurity.
Total telephone subscribers 1.5 -2.0
Commercial vehicle sales -9.5 -84.8
• The pandemic accentuates the growing rejection of minorities
Cargo handled at major sea ports 1.7 -19.8 (especially Muslims) which reinforces violence and homeland
Cargo handled at airports -6.5 -57.2 insecurity. It encourages the authoritarian tendencies of
Passengers handled at airports -0.6 -94.1 Narendra Modi's government.
Railways, net tonne kilometres 0.7 -26.7
Source : Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
42 OPEN
India: Progressing towards Self-Reliant India (Atmanirbhar Bharat)
43 OPEN
Indopac: Fractal changes ahead
• Indonesia will move its capital city in 2024. Jakarta is sinking 10cm
a year, the new capital planned in Kalimantan (Bornéo) will be
Source : ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute (2019)
sheltered from natural disasters. (3)
44 OPEN
Indopac: Focus on Australia
• At the time when the US own epidemics got exponentially worse, China gave support to Latin American
countries, US did not. More recently, the US has stepped up its game. While China has focused more on
tangible donations, the US has zeroed in on monetary aid. (2) The outcome of US elections in November will
dictate a maintenance or change of course in the relations with the two largest countries in LATAM – Brazil and
Mexico. (7)
46 OPEN
Latin America: A rich territory to protect
47 OPEN
Middle East: Covid-19, $230 billion in lost annual revenue
The pandemic decreased the global oil • While Qatar is projected to grow at 5% next year, Oman is forecast
to growth by 3%. This reflects current projections of fading effects
demand. The large increase in oil supply from the COVID-19 outbreak, gradual improvement in oil prices,
and the benefits from sustained global policy easing. (2)
decreased oil prices by more than
60% since the beginning of this year. (2) • The decrease in oil revenues have forced many oil-exporting countries
to cut their total government budgets, which usually also includes
cutting military spending. (3)
48 OPEN
Middle East: Oil and Water Quests
Chinese Investment in GCC and the Middle East by country, 2005-20 (US$ Million) (2)
40K
Lebanon 29
water insecurity
33,530
15K Jordan 20
Turkey 15
Water insecurity is even more dire for non-sovereign 10K
entities that have no recourse under bilateral or
regional treaties and only weak protections for water 5K
49 OPEN
Middle East: Israel the strongly protected US Ally
“Historic” Israel deal won’t likely bring peace to the Middle East
• The US helped Israel and United Arab Emirates to sign an agreement.
But it may not be the grand achievement it was made out to be. It was largely
focused on sharing intelligence to counter their mutual enemy: Iran. (1)
Sudan
Emergency COVID19 measures
Syria 4%
• The Israeli government announced a second national 7%
lockdown which leads to thousands of protests threatening 36% Israel
homeland security. As a response, Israeli government has
enacted a law that bans mass protest. (3/4) Egypt 16%
$9,1bn
U.S. Foreign Aid in the Middle East in 2019 (2)
• Israel is the first country of the region receiving aids from the US Iraq 18%
accounting for $3.3Bn in 2019. 100% of the aid provided is
19%
military (humanitarian migrants, assistance services…). Jordan
50 OPEN
Africa: Covid-19 impacts
Resilient East(1)
East Africa is the continent’s only region set to grow in 2020
GDP estimate before coronavirus Baseline virus scenario Worst-case virus scenario
Covid-19 puts pressure on African 6%
financial digitalization 4
2
• One of a biggest obstacles of this digital transformation is
0
security. TransUnion identified more than 100 million
-2
suspected fraudulent transactions from March to April,
showing the need for Africa to deploy a robust -4
51 OPEN
Africa: Chinese rising influence
Imports Exports
The American trade focus
• Trump administration helps Ethiopia over a Nile dam project that has
become a point of geopolitical tensions partly because of water • Raw materials is the most exported good to China,
supplies. The Egyptian President hints that his country could use for an amount of US$31,947 whereas it’s about
US$6,855 to the USA.
military force to halt the project. (5)
• Capital goods is the most imported good from China
• Trump Administration and Kenyan government launched trade
with an amount of US$19,976.
negotiations on technical barriers to trade, intellectual property,
digital trade, anti-corruption, good regulatory practices and
subsidies. This could be one of the most significant development in
the relationship. (6)
52 OPEN
Sub-Saharan Africa: World worst natural disasters impact
Benefit-to-cot ratio
Mauritus
at least 1,000 deaths, 13 million Seychelles
Flood
6
people seriously affected (injured, left Kenya
4
homeless, food insecure, or lacking Senegal Storm
water and sanitation), and US$520 Burundi 2
million in direct economic Comoros
0
damages.(1) Drought Flood Storm
• For Sub-Saharan Africa, climate World
estimated at US$30–50 billion (2–3% of Eastern Africa Sources: Post-Disaster Needs Assessment; Centre for Research on the Epidemiology
of Disasters, Emergency Events Database; and IMF staff calculations.
regional GDP) each year over the Central Africa
53 OPEN
4
5 MARKET SEGMENTS
54 OPEN
Defence: Covid shakes the Statu Quo
By 2030 USA (Nr1 spender in 2019), Global defence budgets by region 2005-2030 (1)
will be caught by Asia Pac) Nr2 (1)
2 500 8%
• India’s tensions and rivalry with China and Pakistan
are among the major drivers for spendings. (2) 6%
2 000
4%
During COVID 19 Defence highlights (3) 1 500
2%
• 10% drop on 2025 forecast From US$2 to US$1,8 trillion. So
USD billion
budgets stay flat over the next 5 years(3) 1 000
0%
• Suspension of military exercises Decline of demand for
-2%
defence equipment and related services (3)
500
• Defence companies stock price affects the business -4%
developement efforts and other entities may buy out
those cheap shares (3) - -6%
55 OPEN
Defence: Many challenges
56 OPEN
Aeronautics: Complex and Slow Reset
Covid-19 Impact(1)
• World passenger traffic (revenue passenger kilometres or RPKs) collapsed
with unprecedented decline in history World total passengers forecast
for 2020 compared to 2019(according to the main global aviation
organizations):
• ICAO (15/09/2020): -57% to -61%
• IATA (29/09/2020): -66%
• In July 2020, IATA estimated that global passenger traffic will not return
to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2024, a year later than previously projected.
In September, analysts were speaking about 2025 and even 2026.
• On 30th September 2020, Michael Gill, Exec Director of the cross-industry
Air Transport Action Group declared that the industry expect a reduction
of up to 4.8 million jobs in the sector by the end of the year.
Cybersecurity(2)
• With emerging technologies like machine learning and fifth-generation
(5G) telecommunications seeing wider adoption—alongside electric
vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL), autonomous aircraft, and
increased use of space—aviation-cybersecurity risk management
is on the cusp of becoming more complex.
57 OPEN
Aeronautics: Reinvent before China appears
Climate Change(1)
• Before the covid-19 crisis, growing environmental pressure around Air Transport
was the most strategic topic for the sector. In October 2016,
the ICAO adopted the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for
International Aviation (CORSIA), the emission mitigation approach for the
global airline industry. The air transport sector committed to cut the CO2
emission by 50% by 2050 (compared to 2005) and to guarantee a CO2 neutral
growth from 2020 onwards.
• On 21st September 2020, Airbus announces the kick-off of the ZEROe program, Airbus Hydrogen-Fueled ZEROe Zero-Emissions Passenger Planes Teaser
a revolutionary concept of aircraft fully powered by hydrogen with the
potential to reduce aircraft emissions by up to 50%. Its estimated “Entry In
Service” date would be 2035.
58 OPEN
Space: Transform to re-emerge
59 OPEN
Space: Markets Instability in the new battlefield
Space
Uncertainty on roadmap as US adminsitration changes often
exploration:
US election neutral to
implies radical exploration roadmap changes in the past.
(G.W. Bush: Moon, Obama: Mars/Asteroïd, Trump: Moon)
negative
Civil
Topic already classicaly addressed
institutionnal:
by space agencies science programs.
Climate neutral or
On connectivity: space assets appears as protected from
Change slightly positive
climate change effects (storms, wildfires) and constitutes
Connectivity:
resilient solutions in case of natural catastrophe.
positive
60 OPEN
Digital ID and Sec : A boost to digital transformation
61 OPEN
Digital ID and Sec : To protect sovereignty and privacy
62 OPEN
Digital ID and Sec : To optimize resources
IoT in Agroforestry
63 OPEN
Ground transportation : Shaping the future of mobility
Lower demand for transportation during lockdown (3)
• Significant reduction of ridership Less income from ticketing
64 OPEN
Ground transportation : Rail is climate friendly !
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/ Hydrogen-powered train will run
on mainline for the first time TODAY as part of plan to cut diesel
Rail transport is already the « greener » transport mode use –September 30, 2020
Cybersecurity
• With more artificial intelligence onboard trains (cf. autonomy) and wayside +
MaaS apps increased risk of cyber attacks more companies interested
in addressing this market (1)
• Public funding to address innovation on this topic (2)
• More customers requirements to address cybersecurity issues in tenders
65 OPEN
5
CONCLUSION
66 OPEN
Conclusion
67 OPEN
Global context take-aways
US wants to force Free trade and maintain US Financial, Trade and Technology World technological decoupling: China
Technology Supremacy Coercion intensifies Standards 2035
UN, WHO, IMF, G20 questionned Made in China 2025, China Standards Opportunity for Europe: Post Digital Era Year 0
Emergence of 2 blocks around US and China. 2035, New Infrastructure Initiative Need for a new Cyberspace Governance:
A new geostrategic Turkey. An Indopacific Front. US$ or Renminbi Paris Call, Gaia X, Chinese New Digital initiative
68 OPEN
Regions take-aways - 1
The importance of cooperation with Affirmation of the Sino-Us technology Reacting with Industrial and
China on multilateral issues such as divide Technological sovereignty plans
global warming, international security Biden could improve US-India relations
A surprising US dependency on (Made in China 2025, China Standards
and international trade
Chinese suppliers 2035, New Infrastructure Initiative Continuous threats from the neighbours:
The view by Europeans on China and India creates zones of Influence
Biden's election : a highest priority on Driving a shift towards "intelligentized
the US has worsened during the
alliances and partnerships warfare"
pandemic
69 OPEN
Regions take-aways - 2
Low carbon economy for a GDP Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most
Climate change is shaking Indopac gain of $535Bn by 2030 impacted region.
in depth Climate change exacerbates water
Promoting electric mobility Post Disaster Needs Assessment over
Indonesia will move its capital city insecurity in the region
Ice Melting and the new military 20 years are much larger than
in 2024
playground in Antartica Resilience Building Costs.
70 OPEN
Market take-aways
CO2 neutral growth starting Space solutions is a monitoring Rail becomes the favourite
2020 mean of the situation Emerging technologies, such green transportation vs Air
Adjusted logistics and missions as 5G and IoT, can help
hydrogen powered aircraft Space Connectivity is more combat climate change Potential CO2 emission Tariffs
concept by 2035 resilient to the climate change on public tenders
71 OPEN
6
SOURCES
72 OPEN
Sources
Part Slide Sources
(1) 03/09/2020 – Our world in data
(2) 11/08/2020 - Knowledge@Wharton - The Post-COVID-19 World Will Be Less Global and Less Urban
Slide 6 (3) 18/09/2020 – The NY Times (By Jonathan Corum, Katherine J. Wu and Carl Zimmer) - Coronavirus Drug and Treatment Tracker
(4) 18/09/2020 – The NY Times (Jonathan Corum, Sui-Lee Wee and Carl Zimmer) - Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker
Slide 7 (1) 30/10/20 – World Health Organization
(1)11/08/2020 - Knowledge@Wharton - The Post-COVID-19 World Will Be Less Global and Less Urban Urban
Slide 8
(2)29/07/2020 - Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington (Sam Brannen) - COVID 19 reshapes the future
(1)07/09/2020 – L’Opinion (Alain Bauer)- «Le prochain virus sera cyber»
(2)03/2011 – Centre de Recherches Internationales de Sciences Po (Heli Tiirmaa-Klaar) -Cyber Security Threats and responses : at Global,
Nation-State… – http://www.ceri-sciences-po.org
(3)29/06/2018 - Magazine Feature (Phil Muncaster) - World War Cyber
Slide 9
(4)11/01/2018 - Chatham House - Cybersecurity of Nuclear Weapons Systems: Threats, Vulnerabilities and Consequences
Introduction
(5) 09/2020 - RUSI Occasional Paper - State Cyberspace Operations - Proposing a Cyber Response Framework
(6)12/10/2018 – Defense.gov (Katie Lang) - Cybercom: How DOD’s Newest Unified ‘Cocom’ Works
(7) 20/08/2020 - NTT Security - 2019 Global Threat Intelligence Report
(1)16/01/2020 – McKinsey & Company - Global Institute analysis - https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-
Slide 10 insights/climate-risk-and-response-physical-hazards-and-socioeconomic-impacts
(1) 09/09/2020 – Bloomberg - Emissions are already heading back to pre-pandemic levels https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-
Slide 11 09/climate-change-report-coronavirus-will-not-slow-global-warming
(2) 16/06/2020 – Carbon Brief - Coronavirus: Tracking how the world’s ‘green recovery’ plans aim to cut emission
(1) 09/2020 - IHS Markit - US-Mainland China relations – Economics and Country risk special report
(2) 10/01/2019 - The Epoch Times (Singapore edition- China-US Trade War –What is the relationship between the current trade war and the
Slide 12 opium wars, and what effect could it have on our current world order? -https://epochtimes.today
(3) 07/08/2020 – China Briefing – How foreign technology investors benefit from China’s new infrastructure plan https://www.china-
briefing.com/news/how-foreign-technology-investors-benefit-from-chinas-new-infrastructure-plan/
(1) 10/08/2020 – Lowy Institute – The most important American election ever - https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/most-important-
american-election-ever
Slide 13 (2) 07/07/2020 - Global Spectator (Andrés Ortega) - Multilateralism has lost its way
(3) 08/09/2020 – Express.co.uk – Trump in huge election 2020 poll celebration as he prepares for victory “bigger than 2016” -
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1332641/donald-trump-news-us-election-2020-polls-latest-poll-tracker-update-potus-twitter
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Sources
Part Slide Sources
(1) 10/09/2020 – SIPRI video - Sustaining Peace in the Time of COVID-19
(2) 13/10/2020 – Atalayar - Turkey and its interventionist policy: could it now focus on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
Slide 15
(3) 13/10/2020 - China - China accuses US of ‘stirring up confrontation’ in Asia-Pacific
(4) 08/09/2020 – Aljazeera - What is behind the hype about the new Iran-China partnership?
(1) 30/07/2020 – ECFR - Europe’s digital sovereignty: From rulemaker to superpower in the age of US-China rivalry – ECFR/336 and particularly those by Torreblanca on disinformation, Andrew Puddephatt on internet
governance, and Ulrike Franke on artificial intelligence (AI)
Slide 16
(2) 2020/08/20 - NTT Security - 2019 Global Threat Intelligence Report
(3) 12/02/2019 - Accenture - The post-digital era is coming: Are you ready?
(1) 2020 – World Bank Global – World Bank Global Outlook 2050 Strategic Directions Note
(2) 2019 – Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 2019
(3) 16/01/2020 – McKinsey & Company – Climate Risk and response : Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts
(4) 2019 – World Economic Forum - WEF Global Risks Report
Slide 17
(5) 2020 – World Economic Forum - WEF Global risks report
(6) World Water council – Water Crisis https://www.worldwatercouncil.org/en/water-crisis
(7) 10/09/2020 - SIPRI video - Sustaining Peace in the Time of COVID-19 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1dEF_POo-
w&utm_source=phpList&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New+SIPRI+film%3A+Sustaining+Peace+in+the+Time+of+COVID-19&utm_content=HTML
Global context
(1) 01/09/2020 – Our World in data - Which countries have protected both health and the economy in the pandemic?
Slide 18
(2) 10/2020- WORLD Economic Outlook: IMF A long and difficult ascent
Slide 19 (1) 06/2020 – Oliver Wyman - Post COVID megatrends opportunities
(1) 29/07/2020 - Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington (Sam Brannen) - COVID 19 reshapes the future
Slide 20 (2) 03/09/2020 – Asia Global Online – Rebuilding cities better post covid19 world https://www.asiaglobalonline.hku.hk/rebuilding-cities-better-post-covid-19-world
(3)13/08/2020 – VoxEU – Global Value Chain Transformation - https://voxeu.org/article/global-value-chain-transformation-decade-ahead
Slide 21 (1)13/08/2020 – VoxEU – Global Value Chain Transformation - https://voxeu.org/article/global-value-chain-transformation-decade-ahead
(1)08/07/2020 – ECFR - How the US could ramp up its economic war on China https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_how_the_us_could_ramp_up_its_economic_war_on_china
Slide 22
(2)17/02/2020 – ECFR – 2020 The year of economic coercion under Trump - https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_2020_the_year_of_economic_coercion_under_trump
(1) 08/08/2020 – Bloomberg – Here’s How a Biden Victory Could Give European Assets a Boost
(2) BCG – How to change course on climate - https://www.bcg.com/featured-insights/how-to/stop-climate-change
Slide 23
(3) 2019 – World Economic Forum - WEF Global risks report
(4) 06/2020 – Our World in Data video – Climate Kurzgesagt - https://ourworldindata.org/climate-kurzgesagt-video
(1) 03/08/2020 - Marko Ermann Interview, CTO Thales SA
(2) 20/08/2020 - NTT Security - 2019 Global Threat Intelligence Report
Slide 24 (3) 07/01/2020 – CIRCLE ID – Internet governance outlook 2020 next generation of players http://www.circleid.com/posts/20200107_internet_governance_outlook_2020_next_generation_of_players/
(4) 2020 – World Economic Forum - WEF Global risks report
(5) 06/2020 – Oliver Wyman – Post-covid megatrends opportunities
(1) 05/06/2019 - BCG - Unpacking the US−China Tech Trade War
Slide 25
(2) 05/2020 - IRSEM - Research Paper No. 98 4
(1) 01/2020 – The shift project (Hugues Ferreboeuf) - Déployer la sobriété numérique
(2) 08/06/2020 – Siecle digital – Zoom un trimestre plein de réussite pour la plateforme de téléconférence https://siecledigital.fr/2020/06/08/zoom-un-trimestre-plein-de-reussite-pour-la-plateforme-de-teleconference/
Slide 26
(3) 16/06/2020 – Carbon Brief - Coronavirus: Tracking how the world’s ‘green recovery’ plans aim to cut emission
(4) 19/07/2020 – Le Parisien – Le télétravail est il bon pour l’environnement https://www.leparisien.fr/environnement/le-teletravail-est-il-bon-pour-l-environnement-19-07-2020-8355279.php
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Sources
Part Slide Sources
(1) 21/07/2020 – Consilium.Europa.eu – European council final conclusions - https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf
(2) 25/08/2020 - The conversation // https://theconversation.com/accord-europeen-du-21-juillet-2020-un-premier-pas-vers-une-necessaire-consolidation-de-la-zone-euro-144961
(3) 08/09/2020 - S&P Webinar – Rediscovering Europe’s Growth Dynamics
Slide 28 (4) 21/08/2020 – VoxEu - Stable consensus on European mutual assistance is possible
(5) 30/07/2020 – ECFR - Europe’s digital sovereignty: From rulemaker to superpower in the age of US-China rivalry
(6) 09/2020 – IFRI (Clément Beaune) - Covid-19 : A bas la mondialisation, vive l'Europe ?
(7)14/09/2020 – Ministère de l’économie des finances et de la relance – GAIA-X : 1ère coopération franco-allemande https://www.economie.gouv.fr/gaia-x-1-cooperation-franco-allemande#
(1) 11/09/2020 – La Libre Belgique (Olivier le Bussy) - L'Europe risque de se perdre dans le brouillard des investissements chinois
Slide 29 (2) 01/07/2020 – IFRI - Capitaine dans la tempête : défis et enjeux de la présidence allemande du conseil de l'UE
(3) 29/06/2020 – ECFR - Together in trauma: Europeans and the world after covid-19 https://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/together_in_trauma_europeans_and_the_world_after_covid_19
(1)17/08/2020 – Deutschlandfunk- Wälder gesperrt wegenherabstürzender Äste
(2)10/08/2020 – S&P - EU recovery plan could act as lightning rod for green bond market
Slide 30 (3) 03/09/2020 – REUTERS (Philip Blenkinsop) - Striving for green recovery, The European Commission EU adds lithium to critical materials list https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-commodities-idUSKBN25U1CQ
(4) 09/2020 - European Council - Climate change plan for 2030 - https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/eu-climate-action/2030_ctp_de
(5) 03/07/2020 - Frankfurter Allgemeine - Bundestag beschließt Kohleausstieg
(1) 21/07/2019 – UkDefenceJournal – Joint Forces command renamed strategic command- https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/joint-forces-command-renamed-strategic-command/
Regional context
(1) 26/02/2020 – Techuk - Visions for STRATCOM: Putting Cyber at the heart of the militaryhttps://www.techuk.org/insights/news/item/16927-visions-for-stratcom-putting-cyber-at-the-heart-of-the-military
(2) 11/03/2020 – Gov.uk – Budget 2020 : What you need to know https://www.gov.uk/government/news/budget-2020-what-you-need-to-know
(2) 19/03/2020 – Techuk – Budget 2020 : The R&D Budget - https://www.techuk.org/insights/news/item/17091-budget-2020-the-r-d-budget
Slide 31 (2) The Financial times - UK public borrowing to exceed £350bn with Sunak stimulus plan - https://www.ft.com/content/ad1688ee-3d8d-4e52-9b16-a3632eed8be9
(2) 21/07/2020 – Gov.uk – Chancellor launches Comprehensive Spending Review - https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-launches-comprehensive-spending-review
(3) 09/2020 - Institute for government – UK net zero target - https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/net-zero-target
(4) 10/09/2020 – La Tribune (Jean-Baptiste Oubrier) - Pandémie puis Brexit sans accord ? Le RU risque un double choc
(5) 21/08/2020 – IHS Markit - Brexit and the UK economic impact - https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/brexit-and-the-uk-economic-impact.html
(1) 16/04/2020 – Russia Today – Covid-19 quarantine Russia cost //www.rt.com/russia/486041-covid-19-quarantine-russia-cost/
(2) 20/08/2020 – IISS Defense news - Budget and pandemic present challenges to Russia's defence industrial base
Slide 32 (3) 12/05/2020 – Fondation pour la recherche stratégique (Isabelle Faucon) - La russie face à la covid-19 enjeux nationaux et internationaux
(4) 06/2020 – IFRI - Russian strategic culture
(5) 02/06/2020 – The Moscow times – Russia prices economic recovery plan
(1) 06/2020 – IFRI - Transformation of Russian strategic culture
(2) 06/04/2020 – SIPRI - Russia's new Artic Policy document signals continuity rather than change
(3) 03/2020 – IFRI - Russia's artic Policy
Slide 33
(4) 07/07/2020 – S&P - Russia, Germany mull hydrogen partnership to fight climate change
(5) 09/2020 – Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique - Why Russia’s alliance with China is improbable, but not impossible
(6) 09/04/2019 – CBC - Putin presents ambitious Arctic expansion program - Image : Russia’s artic build-up : https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ambitious-arctic-program-1.5090295
(1) 17/08/2020 – AEI - Department of Defense's dependence on Chinese suppliers must be addressed
Slide 34 (3) 14/09/2020 – Brookings - There are no winners in US-China technology divide
(4) 24/09/2020 - Avascent Webinar - The US Defense Market Under a Biden Administration: Prospects for Change & Continuity
(1) 07/2020 – IISS - COVID-19 and the US military
(2) 20/08/2020 – Politico (Eric Geller) Biden prepping to ramp up U.S. cyber defenses — while keeping some Trump policies
Slide 35 (3) 19/08/2020 – ORF - Domestic terrorism in the US, disinformation and the impact of COVID-19
(4) 14/09/2020 – Bloomberg - US faces last chance to salvage stimulus deal as house returns
(5) 11/07/2020 – Bloomberg - Biden unveils $975 billion US recovery plan
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Sources
Part Slide Sources
(1) 17/09/2020 – Bloomberg Government (Zachary Sherwood and Brandon Lee) - What to Know in Washington: Trump Divides GOP on Stimulus
(2) 12/08/2020- S&P- Biden's VP pick strong advocate of environmental justice, climate action
Slide 36 (3) 24/09/2020 - Avascent Webinar - The US Defense Market Under a Biden Administration: Prospects for Change & Continuity
(4) 17/09/2020 – Bloomberg - Bipartisan House Plan Takes Crack At Combating Climate Change
(5) 20/08/2020 – Le Point - Quand trop d’énergies renouvelables privent la Californie… d’électricité
(1) 07/09/2020 – Project Syndicate - China’s Rapid Shift to a Digital Economy
Slide 37 (2) 07/08/2020 – Brookings - The COVID19 recession is a good time to accelerate Chinese reform
(3) 10/2020 – IMF – World Economic Outlook > Graphique
(1) 09/2020 – IHS Markit - US-Mainland China relations – Economics and Country risk special report
Slide 38 (2) 19/08/2020 – Lowy Institute - How China Reversed the new great game of strategic competition
(3) 01/09/2020 – Office of the secretary of defense - Annual report to congress : Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2020
(1) 24/07/2020 – VOA Cambodia - Water wars: Mekong River another front in U.S.-China rivalry
(2) 04/08/2020 – China Dialogue – Why its time to build climate resilience into manufacturing
Slide 39 (3) 23/09/2020 – The diplomat - China’s New Carbon Neutrality Commitment Will Affect Global Energy Security
(4) 28/08/2020 – Bloomberg View - The Big China Disaster That You're Missing
Regional context
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Sources
Part Slide Sources
(1) 12/08/2020 – The global americans - The rise of Chinese technology in Latin America - https://theglobalamericans.org/2020/08/the-rise-of-chinese-technology-in-latin-america/
(2) 15/08/2020 – CNN - Pandemic power play: It's China vs. the US in Latin America https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/15/americas/latam-china-us-covid-diplomacy-intl/index.html
(3) 07/09/2020 - Societe generale Economics Cross Asset Research - Global Economic Outlook: Now comes the hard part
(4) 03/01/2018 – Prison Planet - Eurasia Group Warns A “Major Geopolitical Crisis” May Be Coming In 2018 https://www.prisonplanet.com/eurasia-group-warns-a-major-geopolitical-crisis-may-be-coming-in-2018.html
(5) 24/09/2020 – OECD – Latin American Economic Outlook 2020 - https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/e6e864fb-
Slide 45 en.pdf?expires=1601542882&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=2FD7A8B8A6AE5F19C9FBB0058A20B996
(6) 20/10/2020 – BBC - Eleições nos EUA: o que o Brasil pode ganhar ou perder com resultado das eleições nos EUA https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-54611914
(6) 23/10/2020 – ASCOA – US 2020 Joe Biden and Donald Trump on Mexico Relations https://www.as-coa.org/articles/us-2020-joe-biden-and-donald-trump-mexico-relations
(7) 09/07/2020 – CAF - Digital Transformation to Aid Latin American Governments in Fight against COVID-19
(7) 01/10/2020 – Techcrunch – Latin America’s digital transformation is making up for lost time - https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/01/latin-americas-digital-transformation-is-making-up-for-lost-time/
(7) 29/04/2020 – Govbr - Brasil lança sua Estratégia de Governo Digital para 2020 a 2022
(1) 09/2020 – Encyclopedia – Antartic issues and challenges - https://www.encyclopedia.com/environment/energy-government-and-defense-magazines/antarctic-issues-and-challenges
(2) 25/08/2020 – USNews – How Brazil can have a green economic - https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-08-25/commentary-how-brazil-can-have-a-green-economic-
recovery?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=newclimateecon&utm_campaign=socialmedia&utm_term=6b08c906-c399-4353-b29a-b7b0b340d480
(3) 18/10/2007 – Dailyco.uk - Scramble for Antarctica: Argentina hits back after Britain makes land grab - Map : https://www.grida.no/resources/6147
(4) 02/07/2020 – UnEnvironnement / Electric mobility could help clean air and boost green jobs part - https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/electric-mobility-could-help-clean-air-and-boost-
Regional context
green-jobs-part
Slide 46 (5) 10/2020 – Agencia Brasil - https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/economia/noticia/2020-10/minister-mercosur-eu-deal-not-threat-environment
(6) 22/10/2020 – Blog IMF - Pandemic Persistence Clouds Latin America and Caribbean Recoveryhttps://blogs.imf.org/2020/10/22/pandemic-persistence-clouds-latin-america-and-caribbean-recovery/
(6) 13/10/2020 – Agencia Brasil - Minister: Mercosur–EU deal not a threat to environment+C180
(6) 08/08/2020 – Bloomberg – Latin America infrastructure woes add to inequality - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-08/latin-america-infrastructure-woes-add-to-inequality
(6) Inter-American Development Bank – From structures to services the path to better infrastructure in LATAC https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/From-Structures-to-Services-The-Path-to-
Better-Infrastructure-in-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean.pdf
(6) 10/2020 – Valor Economico – Recuperaçao com uma infraestrutura sustentavel - https://valor.globo.com/opiniao/coluna/recuperacao-com-uma-infraestrutura-sustentavel.ghtml
(1) 20/04/2020 – NY Times – Business oil prices - Graphique : https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/business/oil-prices.html
Slide 47 (2) 15/04/2020 – Gulfnews - COVID-19, oil prices : A double whammy for Middle East oil exporters, says IMF
(3) 26/04/2017 – Business Insider - Oil prices can tell you a lot about military spending ( https://www.businessinsider.com/military-expenditure-correlated-with-global-oil-prices-2017-4?IR=T)
(1) 02/09/2020 – CFR - Navigating Rough Waters: The Limitations of International Watercourse Governance - https://www.cfr.org/blog/navigating-rough-waters-limitations-international-watercourse-governance
Slide 48 (2) 26/09/2020 – Belt and road news - U.S, Middle East and China: Oil, Power & Geo-Strategic Influence
(3) 03/01/2018 – Prison Planet - Eurasia Group Warns A “Major Geopolitical Crisis” May Be Coming In 2018 https://www.prisonplanet.com/eurasia-group-warns-a-major-geopolitical-crisis-may-be-coming-in-2018.html
(1) 17/08/2020 – The conversation - ‘Historic’ Israel deal won’t likely bring peace to the Middle East https://theconversation.com/historic-israel-deal-wont-likely-bring-peace-to-the-middle-east-144480
(2) US Aid - https://explorer.usaid.gov/cd/KWT?fiscal_year=2019&measure=Obligations
Slide 49
(3) 30/09/2020 – The Guardian - Anti-democratic law': Israel bans mass protests as Covid lockdown tightens
(4) 26/09/2020 – Time - Thousands Protest Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem Despite COVID-19 Lockdown https://time.com/5893738/israel-protest-netanyahu-covid19-lockdown/
(1) 07/07/2020 – Bloomberg - Africa GDP May Slump 3.4% in Worst-Case Scenario, AfDB Says
Slide 50
(2) 11/08/2020 – Alla Africa - African banks under pressure to accelerate digital transformation
(1) 03/09/2020 - ADIT The Bulletin N°501
(2) 17/08/2020 – The diplomat - China, the World Bank, and African Debt: A War of Words
(3) 08/01/2020 – Asiatimes - China, US face off in Middle East and Africa https://asiatimes.com/2020/01/china-us-face-off-in-middle-east-and-africa/
Slide 51
(4) 09/2020 - World Integrated Trade Solution https://wits.worldbank.org/countrysnapshot/en/SSF/textview
(5) 25/07/2020 – Foreign Policy - Trump Mulls Withholding Aid to Ethiopia Over controversial dam
(6) 29/07/2020 – Brookings - The US and Kenya launch negociatons on a free trade agreement. Will they succeed ?
Slide 52 (1) 04/2020 – IMF - Adapting to Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa
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Sources
Part Slide Sources
(1) 05/2020 - Tableau – Janes Covid Impact, Global Defense budget
(2) 04/2020 - SIPRI, Military Expenditure Database
Slide 54
(3) 27/07/2020 - The diplomat – How covid-19 will impact the defence industry
4) 10/09/2020 – SIPRI video - Sustaining Peace in the Time of COVID-19
(1) 2019 - Janes Climate Change and Future Security Threats
Slide 55
(2) NATO « Science & Technology Trends-2020-2040 »
(1) https://www.icao.int/sustainability/Documents/COVID-19/ICAO_Coronavirus_Econ_Impact.pdf
(1) https://www.airlines.iata.org/analysis/traffic-recovery-slower-than-expected
Slide 56
(2) https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/news/press-releases/atlantic-council-releases-new-report-aviation-cybersecurity-scoping-the-challenge/
(2) https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/aviation-cybersecurity-scoping-the-challenge-report/
(1) https://greenaviation.org/
(1) https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/CORSIA/Pages/default.aspx
(1) https://corporate.airfrance.com/fr/communique-de-presse/le-secteur-aerien-francais-mobilise-en-faveur-de-la-lutte-contre-le-changement
(1) https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/stories/these-new-Airbus-concept-aircraft-have-one-thing-in-common.html
Slide 57
(1) https://www.airbus.com/innovation/zero-emission/hydrogen/zeroe.html
5 markets segments
(2) https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Aerospace-Defense/China-s-homegrown-jet-hits-turbulence-from-US-trade-war
(2) https://simpleflying.com/how-airlines-got-hammered-by-the-us-china-trade-war-in-2019/
(2) Résultats financiers des groupes dans la défense à Q2, cf. publications sur les sites internet
(1)07/2020 - Euroconsult smallsat 2020 study
(2)ASD-Eurospace - Eurospace de l’impact de la crise Covid-19
(3) 19/03/2020 – Space News- Space should fare better against coronavirus than other industries, report says https://spacenews.com/space-may-fare-better-against-coronavirus-than-other-industries-report-
says/
(4) 06/20 - Via Satellite - Startups post-pandemic survival depends on timing and investor quality http://interactive.satellitetoday.com/via/june-2020/startups-post-pandemic-survival-depends-on-timing-and-
Slide 58 investor-quali...
(5) 29/04/2020 – Les Echos - Boeing va supprimer 10 % de ses effectifs et réduire durablement sa production
(6) 11/05/2020 – Satellite Todat – Virgin group to sell virgin galatic stock to combat covid-19 losses
(7) 30/03/2020 - Spacelight Insider – Oneweb announces layoffs, files for bankruptcy following latest launch
(8) 15/06/2020 – Space Flight Now – Intelsat, SES buy 10 C-band broadcast satellites from US manufacturers
(9) 25/03/2020 – Space News - Space and Missile Systems Center taking action to help contractors during pandemic
(1) Satya Nadella, CEO Microsoft
(2) 20/04/2020 – Engadget - The FBI sees cybercrime reports increase fourfold
(3) 23/07/2020 – MIT Sloan Management Review - Banks are now fending off nearly three times as many cyberattacks
(4) 08/20 – Juniper
(5) Mastercard
(6) 18/08/20 - US Census Bureau
(7) The payers
Slide 60
(8) 01/06/2020 – Gartner – Gartner says global smartphone sales declined
(9) 22/06/2020 – Counterpoint - Mobile Handset Shipment Forecast by Region (Long Term)
(10) 27/08/2020 – IDC - Global Smartphone Shipments Expected to Drop Nearly 10% in 2020, But a Strong 5G Push Is Expected to Bring the Market Back to Growth in 2021
(11) 22/09/2020 – IATA - IATA Calls for Systematic COVID-19 Testing Before Departure
(12) 09/09/2020 – Le Figaro – Le fret aérien retrouve des couleurs selon l’IATA
(13) 05/2020 – Web UNWTO
(14) 10/09/20 –S&P – Bank disruptors doubling down on mobile payments in China
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Sources
Part Slide Sources
(1) Satya Nadella, CEO Microsoft
(2) 20/04/2020 – Engadget - The FBI sees cybercrime reports increase fourfold
(3) 23/07/2020 – MIT Sloan Management Review - Banks are now fending off nearly three times as many cyberattacks
(4) 08/20 – Juniper
(5) Mastercard
(6) 18/08/20 - US Census Bureau
(7) The payers
Slide 60
(8) 01/06/2020 – Gartner – Gartner says global smartphone sales declined
(9) 22/06/2020 – Counterpoint - Mobile Handset Shipment Forecast by Region (Long Term)
(10) 27/08/2020 – IDC - Global Smartphone Shipments Expected to Drop Nearly 10% in 2020, But a Strong 5G Push Is Expected to Bring the Market Back to Growth in 2021
(11) 22/09/2020 – IATA - IATA Calls for Systematic COVID-19 Testing Before Departure
(12) 09/09/2020 – Le Figaro – Le fret aérien retrouve des couleurs selon l’IATA
(13) 05/2020 – Web UNWTO
(14) 10/09/20 –S&P – Bank disruptors doubling down on mobile payments in China
5 markets segments
(1) 04/09/20 – Reuters - Trump administration weighs blacklisting China's chipmaker SMIC
(2) 21/09/2020 – CNBC – China releases details on unreliable entity list raising uncertainty for foreign businesses
(3) 07/07/2020 – Nikkei - China quadruples fundraising pace for chip self-sufficiency
(4) 09/09/2020 - Harward Business Review – Global Supply Chains in a post pandemic world
(5) 17/08/2020 – Les Echos – Europe Impératif de la souveraineté
(6) 15/09/2020 – European Parliament Think Tank -The CJEU judgment in the Schrems II case
Slide 61
(7) 01/10/2020 – Le Figaro – Thierry Breton : il faut aller très vite sur le numérique
(8) 20/07/2017 – Lawfare – Bejing’s New National Intelligence Law: From Defense of Offense
(9) 05/09/2020 – Diplomatist – Understanding the national intelligence law of China why India banned tik tok
(10) 04/09/2020 – Bloomberg – Huawei barometer shows political pressure on 5G
(11) 20/07/2020 – Reuters - China may retaliate against Nokia, Ericsson if EU bans Huawei
(12) 29/08/2020 – CGTN – Expert: Tiktok’s US sale may entail China approval as new tech export curbs debut
(1) 16/09/2020 – European Commission - President von der Leyen's State of the Union Address: charting the course out of the coronavirus crisis and into the future
(2) 19/07/2020 – Le Parisien – Le télétravail est-il bon pour l’environnement
(3) 18/02/2020 – Raconteur – Is IOT a silver bullet for climate change?
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(4) United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)
(5) 23/07/2020 – The National Business – Mastercard urges banks around the work to issue eco-friendly cards
(6) 07/2020 – CPICARD Group - CPI and AITE environmentally friendly card material issuers
(1) 27/07/2020 – IRJ – Covid-19 best opportunity for decades’ to reshape public transport – study
(2) 01/07/2020 – Usine Nouvelle - Mastria, l'intelligence artificielle d’Alstom au service de la distanciation dans les transports
(3) 10/09/2020 – BBC – Coronavirus: Transport for London Reveals cost of pandemic
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(4) 03/09/2020 – Les Echos – Plan de relance: l’éxécutif abat ses cartes
(5) 26/03/2020 – Global Railway Review - COVID-19 and its impact on the European rail supply industry
(6) 31/03/2020 - Metro Magazine – How can public transport be more resilient to pandemics
(1) 24/09/2020 – Railway Gazette - SNCF sets green targets to cut TER emissions
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(2) 23/07/2020 - European Commission - Commission launches public consultations on energy taxation and a carbon border adjustment mechanism
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Print Version - 2020, December 7th