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The circular flow model of income including the role of:
households
Households provide the factors of production
Income is returned from firms in rent, interest, and profits
Expenditure is given to firms (consumption), in turn production is
returned
Largest factor is household consumption (C) (60%)
Businesses
Take money from consumers
Return money in the form of wages, which is a return for the factor of
production of labour
Government
G1: This is consumption expenditure, such as wages and keeping the lights on
G2: This I government investment expenditure
financial institutions
Investment is the second largest area
External sector
Many imports are needed to help our economic activity
Contractions
Many contractions are caused by unexpected events that have a negative
affect on AD
For example, Coronavirus
The GFC was triggered by the realisation that a number of loans should
never have been issued
During the GFC, the banking sector ceased to function in it's normal fashion
Much more difficult to obtain finance
Trough
A lack of AD in the economy
For example, in Japan an ageing population is a cause of their recession
Consumer Confidence
The certainty of future earnings
The general level of optimism or pessimism about the future state of the
economy (from a consumer's perspective)
The main measure is consumer confidence (sentiment), which is an index
with an average of 100 since 1980
This can be affected by many different sub factors:
Perceived global employment prospects
Media reports of global economic conditions
Geopolitical events such as terrorist attacks or a decision for a trade
war
Climatic conditions
Change in world Leader
Pandemic
business confidence
The level of optimism or pessimism from businesses
The sub factors are:
The future state of the economy
Future demand for the firm's goods or services
Future costs associated with the production of their goods and
services
The likelihood of increased competition
Expected rates of inflation
Changes in, or uncertainty surrounding government policy
Differing industries will have differing confidence, for example, tourism vs.
Farming right now
the exchange rate
Net exports is affected by this
Measures the value of one currency relative to another
This is done by the Trade Weighted Index (TWI)
Interest rates affect the structure of relative prices
Low value for AUD will mean high demand for exports, as Australian
products are comparatively more affordable and therefore better value
Australians get paid the same amount, which is less in foreign
E.g. Farmers want low AUD
Low exchange rate = low imports additionally = less leakages = higher AD
rates of economic growth overseas
Australia has an abundance of Natural resources, therefore when overseas
economies grow, it means that there is a larger market for Australian products.
High growth overseas means that the AD increase
As prices fall, real disposable income increases, and the real GDP increases
The AD curve is downward sloping
An increase in the general level of prices will cause the total demand for
goods and services to decrease
A decrease in the general level of prices will cause the total demand for
goods and services to increase
Wealth effect
Higher prices on average (increase in general prices) will reduce the
purchasing power of any given amount of savings
This reduces the amount of consumption
The interest rate effect
A fall in the general level of prices means that consumers have more of their
income left to save
In addition, a fall in general level of prices means that puts downward
pressure on interest rates, because there is less incentive to borrow, as consumers
have more purchasing power
This can stimulate investment in the economy
International competitiveness
Lower level of general prices leads to an increase in net exports
The meaning and importance of aggregate supply and the factors that
may influence the level of aggregate supply in the economy:
Aggregate supply: is the total volume of goods and services that all suppliers
have produced and supplied over a period
When an economy has reached the maximum amount of production at that
time, then it has reached its productive capacity
Aggregate supply is the ability of the market to meet demand
AS curve can be elastic
Shows the relationship between output and inflation
When AD> AS = inflation
changes in the general level of prices
This is not as straight-forward as with AD
There is debate about the relationship and the extent of that relationship
An increase in the general level of prices can lead to an increase in aggregate
supply but only in the short term
quantity of the factors of production
The more factors of production, land, labour and capital, the more
production which is possible
quality of the factors of production
Quality of the factors can affect the level of production
For example, if land is used in an unsustainable manner, the ability to supply
may be reduced, some fertilisers and other techniques degrade the productive capacity
of the land
Another example is the quality of labour, this is related to health and
education outcomes
Quality of capital can also affect aggregate supply, as increase to the quality
of technology and other capital will improve the efficiency of production
cost of production
Falling oil prices is a factor which influences aggregate supply, as it makes it
cheaper to transport goods
Slower wage growth makes it relatively cheaper
Falling technology prices, which have made it easier to increase efficiency
RULC: Real Unit Labour Cost
Increase in wages decreases the Aggregate Supply
technological change
The internet increases businesses' abilities to supply
Industrialisation of previously labour-intensive industries
Advances in technology
productivity growth
Productivity: The outputs per unit of input
There are several measures of this:
Labour productivity: GDP / Hours worked
Capital productivity
Multifactor
Productivity growth is linked to the ability and willingness of firms to
produce, because 1) a greater volume can be produced from the same or less inputs and
2) The costs of production will fall because the cost per unit decreases
This results in an increase to the purchasing power of consumers
exchange rates
A depreciation of the AUD will make it more expensive for firms to purchase
inputs that might be used in production
An appreciation in the AUD will make it cheaper for firms to purchase inputs
from overseas, making it easier to produce
The level of AS has a positive relationship with AUD price
70% of imports are used in production
climatic conditions
Favourable conditions = more production
Unfavourable conditions = less production
the aggregate supply curves
The slope of the New Classical short run Aggregate supply curve (SRAS)
curve is upward sloping, because in aggregate, firms are willing to supply more
the effects of changes in
aggregate demand:
the level of economic growth
Increase in AD will increase economic growth
Employment
Increase in AD will increase the amount of employment
Price levels
Increase in AD will put upward pressure on prices
Aggregate Supply:
the level of economic growth
Increased AS = increased economic growth
If Australia had a bumper crop year, than it will improve the
economy, even if the price point was lower
Employment
Increase in As will increase employment
Price levels
Downward pressure on prices
The Australian Government’s domestic macroeconomic goals:
Disinflation = fall in the inflation rate (E.g. 4% ---> 3%)
Deflation = negative inflation
the meaning of the goal of low inflation (price stability)
Target to maintain a consumer price inflation of 2-3%
This is measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
This is done because they want to avoid 0 for three reasons
Small amounts of inflation allow for reductions in the 'real' prices of
some products, without a drop in the nominal prices of products
Some inflation is accounted for by rising quality of goods and
services, which isn't captured in CPI
It may create other problems like low growth, high unemployment,
and deflation
Full employment
Sustainable: the achievement of economic growth should not come at a cost
to other economic goals - specifically inflation and external stability and not lead to an
overuse of the nation's natural resources
Economic growth refers to any increase in the amount or level of national
production that has occurred
The government does not set a growth target
Pursues sustainable growth: Considered to be around 3-3.5% PA (Real GDP)
Does not cause inflation above 2-3%
Does not result in significant external pressures on the economy like
a deficit (or trade deficit)
Doesn't lead to an over use of the nation's resources
Real GDP is GDP, but deflated, and therefore measuring the actual
production, which is better
Deflating the GDP figure leads to the volume of Goods and Services
The 3-3.5% goal is to avoid inflation
The economies' productive capacity can only grow three percent a year,
however this can be higher in times of high productivity growth
The goal is also compared to other countries, as Australia's has been sub
three percent, which is comparatively strong to other countries
Also, real GDP growth should be higher than population growth ---> Births
and immigration
Also, should be larger than the growth in productivity
measurement of the rate of economic growth using real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP)
GDP is used to measure the amount of production taking place in an
economy
GDP adds up the entire amount of value added during each stage of
production
The chain volume measure of GDP is used by the ABS to provide an estimate
of real GDP, it involves using prices from the previous period and applying them to
current period volumes
Seasonally adjusted adjusts for times such as the peak trading window in
December
GDP growth is measured by GDP2-GDP divide GDP1
the reasons for pursuing strong and sustainable economic growth including:
lowering of the unemployment rate
Economic growth has a positive relationship with employment growth
Therefore, growth decreases unemployment
Unemployment is expensive because of wealth fare, and also has a
negative affect on the physiological and psychological outcomes for people
growth in real income
This will have a positive impact on people's material living standards
This may improve quality of life
increased ability of government to provide essential services
More GDP = More taxation
the meaning of the goal of full employment and classifications within the
labour force:
Full employment: There is a natural rate of unemployment, this is where
cyclical unemployment is reduced, without inflationary and external pressures, also known as
the Non Accelerating Inflation Rated of Unemployment (NAIRU)
This is approximately 4.5%, or lower
RBA governor saids we target an unemployment
An decrease in unemployment below the NAIRU rate creates inflationary
pressure
Employed: Over 15 years of age, working more than one hour per week in
return for some remuneration
Unemployed: Over 15, looking for work, with under one hour per week
worked
Hidden unemployment: Potential workers who are not classified as
members of the labour force, despite the fact they would like to work and would accept a job
offer, this is because they have become discouraged and are no longer looking for work. This is
approximately 90,700 people
Not in the official statistics because they are not looking for work
When someone leaves hidden and starts looking for job, this will increase
the unemployment rates
If they were offered one they would take it
disguised or under-employed: Underemployment is where the person is
looking for more work then they have
If someone works more than 1 hour/week they are employed, despite how
much work they would like to receive
measurement of the labour force including:
Labour force: Employed + unemployed
the participation rate
Defined as the percentage of the total working age population who are
members of the labour force, which is actively looking for work
People such as stay at home mums, who don't want a job, even if they are
offered one
As the unemployment rate decreases, the participation rate increase
Increased participation rate puts downward pressure on
the unemployment rate
The amount of people who are looking for work, over 15 and cannot find
work
An increase in the participation rate will likely result in an increase to the
unemployment rate
In the long term, however, an increase to the participation rate will result in
a decrease to the unemployment rate
Unemployment rate = unemployed/ employed *100
the labour force underutilisation rate
Attempting to calculate the supply of labour
Types and causes of unemployment:
Cyclical
Unemployment due to a lack of Aggregate demand
AD causes cyclical unemployment
When there is a fall in AD, then wages fall and number of people
employed falls
This is due to the multiplier affect (positive feedback loop),
unemployment causes less AD, which causes more unemployment ---> Cattle panic,
start running around, causes more panic
During recession, a slump in AD, employed people will save more
money, worsening the economy, due to less AD
Lack of AD = Lack of employment
AD is deceased through lack of consumer confidence
Though lower lack of economic growth with major trading
partners
Higher interest rates
Exchange rate
Economic growth has and inverse relationship with AD
Structural (Mismatch of skills)
There can still be a relatively high unemployment rate even when there is
strong demand
Structural unemployment: Caused by a mismatch between the skills of the
unemployed and business
This is caused by a variety of factors:
The implementation of new capital and technology, over time, many
jobs have disappeared
Changing patterns of demand occur as tastes and fashions change
Outsourcing, such as jobs going to India
Business restructuring, such as the choice to have consultants
instead of full time employees
Microeconomic reform policies
Frictional
Economists do not worry about this
This is when a person has left one job, and has yet to find a new one
Contractors may experience this
People Switching jobs
seasonal
This occurs for workers whose skills are not in demand at certain times of
the year
This is workers like fruit pickers, ski-instructors and tourist operators
At the end of the school year there is often a large influx of unemployed
people
hard-core unemployment
Caused by individual characteristics which make the person "unemployable"
This is caused by criminal record, drug addiction, mental illness, physical
disability or lack of desire
This may result in people applying for jobs which they have no chance to get
Long term unemployment
12 months or more
The longer you're unemployed, the less likely you are going to get a job
Youth unemployment
15-24
Much higher
the consequences of unemployment including:
Unused resource
loss of GDP
loss of tax revenue
reductions in living standards
greater income inequality
aggregate demand and aggregate supply factors that have influenced
Inflation
economic growth
The unemployment rate
living standards in the past two years