Professional Documents
Culture Documents
α
γ
892
983
1078
1077
781
953
1065
1478
1347
1168
783
910
694
884
1069
1020
913
951
1032
1524
1255
1138
923
938
953
968
983
998
DES-HOLT
RMSE 216.5
α 0.997566484566955
γ 0.072209471117252
MAD 174.0
MSE 46873.5
MAPE 18.10%
RMSE 216.5
α 0.997566484566955
γ 0.072209471117252
MAD 174.0
MSE 46873.5
MAPE 18.10%
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1
-2.00
-4.00
-6.00
-8.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1
-2.00
-4.00
-6.00
-8.00
MAD TS UCL CL LCL
11.00 -1.00 4 0 -4
9.12 -2.00 4 0 -4
37.98 -3.00 4 0 -4
119.74 -4.00 4 0 -4
115.12 -3.32 4 0 -4
101.56 -3.43 4 0 -4
131.79 -0.27 4 0 -4
142.28 -1.76 4 0 -4
153.96 -3.24 4 0 -4
180.84 -5.09 4 0 -4
172.06 -4.86 4 0 -4
177.85 -6.06 4 0 -4
176.02 -5.25 4 0 -4
173.38 -4.53 4 0 -4
167.76 -5.21 4 0 -4
165.85 -6.10 4 0 -4
156.48 -6.42 4 0 -4
150.42 -6.37 4 0 -4
165.03 -3.21 4 0 -4
172.37 -4.88 4 0 -4
171.27 -5.78 4 0 -4
173.98 -7.02 4 0 -4
Column N
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Column O
Column P
Column Q
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Column O
Column P
Column Q
Month Demand dt Forecast Demand dt' dt' - dt d(t-1')-d(t-1)
18-Jul 686
18-Aug 789
18-Sep 881 892 11
18-Oct 976 983 7 11
18-Nov 982 1078 96 7
18-Dec 712 1077 365 96
19-Jan 878 781 -97 365
19-Feb 987 953 -34 -97
19-Mar 1378 1065 -313 -34
19-Apr 1262 1478 216 -313
19-May 1100 1347 247 216
19-Jun 745 1168 423 247
19-Jul 867 783 -84 423
19-Aug 668 910 242 -84
19-Sep 848 694 -154 242
19-Oct 1023 884 -139 -154
19-Nov 980 1069 89 -139
19-Dec 883 1020 137 89
20-Jan 920 913 -7 137
20-Feb 998 951 -47 -7
20-Mar 1460 1032 -428 -47
20-Apr 1212 1524 312 -428
20-May 1106 1255 149 312
20-Jun 907 1138 231 149
MR
UCL
LCL
(dt'-dt)-(d(t-1)'-d(t-1)) |(dt'-dt)-(d(t-1)'-d(t-1))| MRt UCL 2/3 UCL
4 629.6447 419.7631
88 629.6447 419.7631
269 629.6447 419.7631
-4 3.77 462 629.6447 419.7631
88 88.47 63 629.6447 419.7631
269 269.32 279 629.6447 419.7631
-462 461.64 529 629.6447 419.7631
63 62.84 32 629.6447 419.7631
-279 279.41 175 629.6447 419.7631
529 528.88 507 629.6447 419.7631
32 31.75 326 629.6447 419.7631
175 175.25 396 629.6447 419.7631
-507 507.02 15 629.6447 419.7631
326 325.84 228 629.6447 419.7631
-396 395.60 48 629.6447 419.7631
15 15.14 144 629.6447 419.7631
228 228.05 41 629.6447 419.7631
48 48.14 381 629.6447 419.7631
-144 143.77 740 629.6447 419.7631
-41 40.88 163 629.6447 419.7631
-381 380.68 82 629.6447 419.7631
740 739.91
-163 162.66
82 81.86 DES-Holt Verific
236.71
1000
629.6447
800
-629.645
600
400
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-200
-400
-600
-800
MRt UCL
LCL 2/3 LCL
1/3 UCL LCL 2/3 LCL 1/3 LCL CL
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21